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1.
Homogeneous Indian Monsoon rainfall: Variability and prediction 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall is known to have considerable spatial variability, which imposes some limitations on the
all-India mean widely used at present. To prepare a spatially coherent monsoon rainfall series for the largest possible area,
fourteen subdivisions covering the northwestern and central parts of India (about 55% of the total area of the country), having
similar rainfall characteristics and associations with regional/global circulation parameters are merged and their area-weighted
means computed, to form monthly and seasonal Homogeneous Indian Monsoon (HIM) rainfall series for the period 1871–1990. This
paper includes a listing of monthly and seasonal rainfall of HIM region. HIM rainfall series has been statistically analysed
to understand its characteristics, variability and teleconnections for long-range prediction.
HIM rainfall series isfound to be homogeneous, Gaussian distributed and free from persistence. The mean (R) rainfall is 757
mm (87% of annual) and standard deviation (S) 119 mm, with a Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 16%. There were 21 dry (K, -<R S) and 19 wet (R
i R + S) years during 1871–1990. There were clusters of frequent negative departures during 1899–1920 and 1965–1987 and positive
departures during 1942–1961. The recent three decades show very high rainfall variability with 10 dry and 6 wet years. The
decadal averages were alternatively positive and negative for three consecutive decades, viz., 1871–1900 (positive); 1901–1930
(negative); 1931–1960 (positive) and 1961–1990 (negative) respectively. Significant QBO and autocorrelation at 14th lag have
been found in HIM rainfall series.
To delineate the changes in the climatic regime of the Indian summer monsoon, sliding correlation coefficients (CCs) between
HIM rainfall series and (i) Bombay msl pressure, (ii) Darwin msl pressure and (iii) Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature
over the period 1871–1990 have been examined. The 31-year sliding CCs showed the systematic turning points of positive and
negative CCs around the years, 1900 and 1940. In the light of other corroborative evidences, these turning points seem to
delineate ‘meridional’ monsoon regime during 1871–1900 and 1940–1990 and ‘zonal’ monsoon regime during 1901–1940. The monsoon
signal is particularly dominant in many regional and global circulation parameters, during 1951–1990.
Using the teleconnections ofHIM series with 12 regional/global circulation parameters during the recent 36-year period 1951–86 regression models have been
developed for long-range prediction. In the regression equations 3 to 4 parameters were entered, explaining upto 80% of the
variance, depending upon the data period. The parameters that prominently enter the multiple regression equations are (i)
Bombay msl pressure, (ii) April 500 mb Ridge at 75°E, (iii) NH temperature, (iv) Nouvelle minus Agalega msl pressure and (v)
South American msl pressure. Eleven circulation parameters for the period 1951–80 were subjected to Principal Component Analysis
(PCA) and the PC’s were used in the regression model to estimate HIM rainfall. The multiple regression with three PCs explain
72% of variance in HIM rainfall. 相似文献
2.
Air pollution has been a major transboundary problem and a matter of global concern for decades. Climate change and air pollution are closely coupled. Just as air pollution can have adverse effects on human health and ecosystems, it can also impact the earth’s climate. As we enter an era of rapid climate change, the implications for air quality need to be better understood, both for the purpose of air quality management and as one of the societal consequences of climate change. In this study, an attempt has been made to estimate the current air quality to forecast the air quality index of an urban station Kolkata (22.65°N, 88.45°E), India for the next 5 years with neural network models. The annual and seasonal variability in the air quality indicates that the winter season is mostly affected by the pollutants. Air quality index (AQI) is estimated as a geometric mean of the pollutants considered. Different neural network models are attempted to select the best model to forecast the AQI of Kolkata. The meteorological parameters and AQI of the previous day are utilized to train the models to forecast the AQI of the next day during the period from 2003 to 2012. The selection of the best model is made after validation with observation from 2013 to 2015. The radial basis functional (RBF) model is found to be the best network model for the purpose. The RBF model with various architectures is tried to obtain precise forecast with minimum error. RBF of 5:5-91-1:1 structure is found to be the best fit for forecasting the AQI of Kolkata. 相似文献
3.
由于气候变化和人类活动的影响,水文要素的分布形式和参数可能在统计意义上产生了变异。为了揭示水文要素在时间尺度上的变异关系,将乌力吉木仁河梅林庙测站1956~2000年的逐月径流资料,按照不同的时间尺度划分为季度、汛/非汛期和年径流序列,利用水文变异诊断系统分别对其进行变异诊断,并查阅相关文献得出剧烈的人类活动是导致变异的主要原因。通过归纳不同时间尺度的变异诊断结果得出,对于按照季度尺度划分的径流序列,不同月份径流量占年径流量的比例是影响季度变异的主要因素,在变异程度方面,第一季度的变异程度最大,而第三季度的变异程度则最小;对于汛/非汛期尺度划分的径流序列,其变异则受所包含月份的综合影响,且月径流量比例系数越大,其影响程度也越大;对于年径流序列,其变异则主要受到第三季度或汛期径流的影响。 相似文献
4.
Haris Hasan Khan Arina Khan Shakeel Ahmed Marie-Claude Gennero Kien Do Minh Anny Cazenave 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(10):3693-3702
In this study, the hydrodynamics of lower Ganges basin in India has been monitored using radar altimetry data from environmental satellite (ENVISAT) mission and microgravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. River stage time series have been constructed for different virtual stations on the lower Ganges. Time series for the integrated water volume changes from microgravity measurements have also been constructed to characterize the seasonal and interannual fluctuation patterns in water storage and flux. The ENVISAT dataset indicates an average seasonal river stage fluctuation of 8 m in the lower Ganges River. The GRACE dataset reveals a seasonal fluctuation ranging from 0.18 to 0.40 m in the vertically integrated total water storage in the lower Ganges basin. The two independent datasets show broad similarity in the lower Ganges basin and outline the importance of space-based techniques for monitoring continental water resources. 相似文献
5.
Assessment of prediction performances of stochastic models: Monthly groundwater level prediction in Southern Italy 
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下载免费PDF全文 Stochastic modelling of hydrological time series with insufficient length and data gaps is a serious challenge since these problems significantly affect the reliability of statistical models predicting and forecasting skills. In this paper, we proposed a method for searching the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA) model parameters to predict the behavior of groundwater time series affected by the issues mentioned. Based on the analysis of statistical indices, 8 stations among 44 available within the Campania region(Italy) have been selected as the highest quality measurements. Different SARIMA models, with different autoregressive, moving average and differentiation orders had been used.By reviewing the criteria used to determine the consistency and goodness-of-fit of the model, it is revealed that the model with specific combination of parameters, SARIMA(0,1,3)(0,1,2) _(12), has a high R~2 value,larger than 92%, for each of the 8 selected stations. The same model has also good performances for what concern the forecasting skills, with an average NSE of about 96%. Therefore, this study has the potential to provide a new horizon for the simulation and reconstruction of groundwater time series within the investigated area. 相似文献
6.
Somia Hamil Siham Arab Amin Chaffai Mounia Baha Abdeslem Arab 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(23):754
This study explores the water quality status and pollution sources in Ghrib Dam, Algeria. It allows us to obtain more accurate information on water quality by applying a series of multivariate statistical techniques, including principal component analysis (PCA)/factor analysis (FA), hierarchical cluster analysis (CA), and multiple regression analysis (MRA). On 19 physicochemical parameters dataset over 5 years and from 6 different sites located in and around the lake. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to investigate the statistically considerable spatial and seasonal differences. The results of ANOVA suggest that there exist a statistically significant temporal variation in the water quality of the dam for all parameters. On the other hand, only organic matter has a statistically significant spatial variation. In the multiple linear models, an association between organic and inorganic parameters was found; their origin comes from the mechanical erosion process of agricultural lands in the watershed. The PCA/FA identifies five dominant factors as responsible of the data structure, explaining more than 94.96% of the total variance in the water quality dataset. This suggests that the variations in water compounds’ concentration are mainly related to the multiple anthropogenic activities, as well as natural processes. The results of cluster analysis demonstrate that the sampling stations were divided in two similar groups, which indicates spatial homogeneity. While seasonal grouping has showed that the source of pollution was related to the level of runoff in the seasons. 相似文献
7.
SOHO/MDI magnetograms are used to analyze the time variations in the magnetic parameters of the active region (AR) NOAA 10486, which was part of a large activity complex that passed over the solar disk from October 26 to 31, 2003, during solar cycle 23. The results are compared with X-ray flares in the AR and the parameters of coronal mass ejections associated with the AR. The time variations in the distributions of themagnetic-field strengths associated with the total magnetic flux (Fa), the flux imbalance between the northern and southern polarities (Im), the complexity of the field, as a measure of the mutual overlapping of the opposite polarities (Co), and the tilt angle of the magnetic axis (An) are considered. The time variations in the free energy accumulated in current sheets of ARs were traced using a parameter introduced for this purpose (Sh). The following results were obtained. First, the parameters Fa, Im, Co, An, and Sh quantitatively describe the current state of the AR and can be used to trace and analyze the dynamical evolution of its magnetic field. Second, variations in the magnetic-field-strength distributions and the mean values of Fa, Im, Co, An, and Sh are associated with flares and coronal mass ejections, and the variations have considerable amplitudes. Third, the parameter Sh characterizing the degree to which the magnetic field is non-potential in regions adjacent to the main neutral line increases before eruptive events, and is thus particular interest for monitoring the states of ARs in real time. Fourth, the magnetic field of the AR manifests a sort of quasi-elasticity, so that the field structure is restored after active events, on average, within 1–3 h. 相似文献
8.
In this paper, hydroclimatic fluctuations of the Upper Narmada catchment (upto Narmadasagar damsite) have been studied by
examining the time series (1901–80) of (i) 1-to 10-day annual extreme rainfall; (ii) seasonal total rainfall between May and
October; (iii) the precipitation concentration index (PCI); (iv) a modified version of PCI(MPCI); and (v) parameters of the
periods contributing specified percentages of rainfall to annual total. Most of these parameters followed the normal distribution
and did not show any significant long-term trend. However, some dominant long period oscillations have been noticed in extreme
rainfall, seasonal rainfall, PCI and MPCI series. Influence of break-monsoon days over India during July and August on the
rainfall activities of the Upper Narmada catchment has also been investigated and salient findings discussed. 相似文献
9.
Yan Jun Puah Yuk Feng Huang Kuan Chin Chua Teang Shui Lee 《Journal of Earth System Science》2016,125(2):269-283
Climate change is receiving more attention from researchers as the frequency of occurrence of severe natural disasters is getting higher. Tropical countries like Malaysia have no distinct four seasons; rainfall has become the popular parameter to assess climate change. Conventional ways that determine rainfall trends can only provide a general result in single direction for the whole study period. In this study, rainfall series were modelled using additive Holt–Winters method to examine the rainfall pattern in Langat River Basin, Malaysia. Nine homogeneous series of more than 25 years data and less than 10% missing data were selected. Goodness of fit of the forecasted models was measured. It was found that seasonal rainfall model forecasts are generally better than the monthly rainfall model forecasts. Three stations in the western region exhibited increasing trend. Rainfall in southern region showed fluctuation. Increasing trends were discovered at stations in the south-eastern region except the seasonal analysis at station 45253. Decreasing trend was found at station 2818110 in the east, while increasing trend was shown at station 44320 that represents the north-eastern region. The accuracies of both rainfall model forecasts were tested using the recorded data of years 2010–2012. Most of the forecasts are acceptable. 相似文献
10.
黄河源区气候变化的季节特征与区域差异研究 总被引：7，自引：5，他引：2
基于黄河源区有关气象台站的观测数据,对该区黄河沿水文站以上、黄河沿水文站-吉迈水文站区间、吉迈水文站-玛曲水文站区间、玛曲水文站-唐乃亥水文站区间各区域及整个黄河源区1960-2014年期间气温、降水的季节变化特征及其区域差异进行了分析。结果表明：黄河源区气温变化与全球气温变化有着较好的一致性,各区年平均气温与各季气温的年际变化均呈波动状上升态势并明显高于过去50a全球与我国气温的升幅,且各气温系列升幅差异不大;而各区年平均气温与各季气温的年代际变化的上升态势较年际变化的更为显著,但不同区域各季气温升幅差异较大。各区气温均在1996年后出现一个跃动,跃动后各气温系列均值较跃动前有较大幅度的上升。由于区域地理环境的影响,黄河源区降水量的变化比较复杂,各区各季降水量的变化具有较大的差异。近50余年来,总体上整个河源区平均降水量的年际变化呈不明显的增长态势。其中河源区的上半部分,即黄河沿以上、黄河沿-吉迈之间等海拔较高的区域年降水量增长比较显著,而源区的下半部分,即吉迈-玛曲、玛曲-唐乃亥之间的区域,年降水呈减少态势,并且对全区平均降水量与产流量贡献最大的吉迈-玛曲之间的区域,年降水量的减少非常显著。各区冬春季和夏季降水量普遍呈增长态势,秋季是河源区各季节中降水唯一减少的季节,其中吉迈-玛曲之间的区间秋季降水量的减少最为显著。各区域各季降水量的年代际变化较其年际变化差异更大,但近十余年来大部分区域各季降水普遍偏多。各区域降水系列亦有突变发生,但突变时间并不像气温系列那样一致;年降水量与夏季降水量的突变大都发生在2005年,秋季降水量突变大都发生在1986年,春季和冬季降水量突变的时间杂乱无序;突变前后系列均值有增有减,且幅度大小不等。 相似文献
11.
Iqbal Hossain H. M. Rasel Monzur Alam Imteaz Fatemeh Mekanik 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(7):280
Using the lagged (past) climate indices, including El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as input parameters and long-term spring rainfall as outputs, calibration and validation of the linear multiple regression (MR) models have been performed. Since Australian rainfall varies both temporally and spatially, the analysis on the linear MR models was performed on regional scale. These models show the capability of linear MR technique for long-term predictions of Western Australian spring rainfall. The emphasis was given to assess the statistical correlations between Western Australian spring rainfall and dominating large-scale climate modes. The efficiency of linear modelling technique was evaluated to predict seasonal rainfall forecasting. At the same time, the Pearson correlation (R), mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and Willmott index agreement (d) were used to assess the capability of MR models. The models which fulfilled the limits of statistical significances were used for the prediction of future spring rainfall using independent data set. The results indicate that during calibration periods maximum achievable correlations varied from 0.47 to 0.53 for the selected stations. In regard to predict peaks and troughs of rainfall time series, it was found that correlations between predicted and actual peaks varied from 0.82 to 0.94 and between predicted and actual troughs varied from 0.53 to 0.91. 相似文献
12.
W. E. Sharp 《Mathematical Geology》1982,14(5):457-474
A wide variety of semivariograms may be represented in terms of a first- or second-order autoregressive (AR) process, and the nugget effect may be included by use of a moving average (MA) process. The weighting parameters for these models have a simple functional dependence on the value of the sill and the semivariance at the first and second lag. These may be estimated either graphically from the semivariogram or directly from the computed values. Improved spectral estimates of geophysical data have been obtained by the use of the maximum entropy method, and the necessary equations were adapted here for the estimation of the weighting parameters of the AR and the MA processes. Comparison among the semivariograms obtained for the ideal case, the observed case, and the estimated case for artificial series show excellent correspondence between the ideal and estimated while the observed semivariogram may show marked divergence. 相似文献
13.
Satanand Mishra C. Saravanan V. K. Dwivedi J. P. Shukla 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2018,92(3):305-312
In this research, k-means, agglomerative hierarchical clustering and regression analysis have been applied in hydrological real time series in the form of patterns and models, which gives the fruitful results of data analysis, pattern discovery and forecasting of hydrological runoff of the catchment. The present study compares with the actual field data, predicted value and validation of statistical yields obtained from cluster analysis, regression analysis with ARIMA model. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models is investigated for monthly runoff forecasting. The different parameters have been analyzed for the validation of results with casual effects. The comparison of model results obtained by K-means & AHC have very close similarities. Result of models is compared with casual effects in the same scenario and it is found that the developed model is more suitable for the runoff forecasting. The average value of R2 determined is 0.92 for eight ARIMA models. This shows more accuracy of developed ARIMA model under these processes. The developed rainfall runoff models are highly useful for water resources planning and development. 相似文献
14.
The Las Vegas Valley Water District in Nevada, USA, has operated an artificial recharge (AR) program since 1989. In summer 2001, observations of gas exsolving from tap water prompted a study that revealed total dissolved gas (TDG) pressures approaching 2?atm with a gas composition that it is predominantly air. Measurements of TDG pressure at well heads and in the distribution system indicated two potential mechanisms for elevated TDG pressures: (1) air entrainment during AR operations, and (2) temperature changes between the winter recharge season and the summer withdrawal season. Air entrainment during pumping was investigated by intentionally allowing the forebay (upstream reservoir) of a large pumping station to drawdown to the point of vortex formation. This resulted in up to a 0.7?atm increase in TDG pressure. In general, the solubility of gases in water decreases as the temperature increases. In the Las Vegas Valley, water that acquired a modest amount of dissolved gas during winter artificial recharge operations experienced an increase in dissolved gas pressure (0.04?atm/°C) as the water warmed in the subsurface. A combination of air entrainment during AR operations and its amplification by temperature increase after recharge can account for most of the observed amounts of excess gas at this site. 相似文献
15.
This study aims at providing a hybrid calibration framework to estimate Hertz-type contact parameters (particle-scale shear modulus and Poisson ratio) for both two-dimensional and three-dimensional discrete element modelling (DEM). On the basis of statistically isotropic granular packings, a set of analytical formulae between macroscopic material parameters (Young modulus and Poisson ratio) and particle-scale Hertz-type contact parameters for granular systems are derived under small-strain isotropic stress conditions. However, the derived analytical solutions are only estimated values for general models. By viewing each DEM modelling as an implicit mathematical function taking the particle-level parameters as independent variables and employing the derived analytical solutions as the initial input parameters, an automatic iterative scheme is proposed to obtain the calibrated parameters with higher accuracies. Considering highly nonlinear features and discontinuities of the macro-micro relationship in Hertz-based discrete element models, the adaptive moment estimation algorithm is adopted in this study because of its capacity of dealing with noise gradients of cost functions. The proposed method is validated with several numerical cases including randomly distributed monodisperse and polydisperse packings. Noticeable improvements in terms of calibration efficiency and accuracy have been made. 相似文献
16.
Modification in the semi-empirical technique for the simulation of strong ground motion has been introduced to incorporate the strong motion generation areas (SMGA) in the modeled rupture plane. Strong motion generation areas identified within the rupture plane of the Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011 (M w = 9.0), have been modeled using this modified technique. Two different source models having four and five SMGAs, respectively, are considered for modeling purpose. Strong motion records using modified semi-empirical technique have been simulated at two near-field stations located at epicentral distance of 137 and 140 km, respectively, using two different source models. Comparison of the observed and simulated acceleration waveforms is made in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) at both stations. Minimum root mean square error of the waveform comparison has been obtained at both the stations for source model having five SMGAs. Simulations from same rupture model have been made at other four stations lying at epicentral distance between 154 and 249 km. Comparison of observed and simulated records has been made in terms of RMSE in acceleration records, velocity records and response spectra at each six station. Simulations have been made at six other stations to obtain distribution of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity with hypocentral distance. Peak ground acceleration and velocity from simulated and observed records are compared at twelve stations surrounding the source of Tohoku earthquake. Comparison of waveforms and parameters extracted from observed and simulated strong motion records confirms the efficacy of the developed modified technique to model earthquake characterized by SMGAs. 相似文献
17.
Sajad Haghir Chehreghani Aref Alipour Mehdi Eskandarzade 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2011,78(3):271-277
One important decision in design of surface mine is the selection of mine equipment and plant. Demand for mechanical excavation
is growing in mining industry because of its high productivity and excavation in large scale with lower costs. Several models
have been developed over the years to evaluate the ease of excavation and machine performance against rock mass properties.
Due to complexity of excavation process and large number of effective parameters, approaches made for this purpose are essentially
empirical. There are many uncertainties in results of these models. An attempt is made in this paper to revise the exisiting
models. Neural network models for estimation of rock mass excavatability and production rate of VASM-2D excavating machine
at Limestone quarry in Retznei, Austria, is presented. Input parameters of this model are Uniaxial compressive strength, tensile
strength and discontinuities spacing of rocks. Output is the specific excavation rate per power consumption (bcm/Kwh) as the
productivity indicator. Average of deviation between actual data and results estimated by neural network model was only 15%
which is in an acceptable range. 相似文献
18.
B. J. Topliss 《Mathematical Geology》1984,16(7):719-735
Aircraft multispectral visible data were collected in the Bay of Fundy, a turbid macrotidal environment. Measurements were made at two altitudes and were atmospherically corrected to give above-surface reflectance values. The variance in long wavelength reflectance data could be explained by the logarithm of suspended sediment concentrations in the water. Variance in short wavelength reflectance data could not be directly related to any measured parameter but was believed to originate from instrumentation noise. High intercorrelation between water quality parameters meant that only the suspended sediment information could be extracted from the multispectral aircraft data. The reflectance measurements at 660 nm could explain 92% of the variance in the logarithm of suspended sediment concentration, and up to an additional 3% of variance could be explained by using a reflectance ratio of wavelength 660 to 573 nm or by using the first rotated vector of a principal component analysis. 相似文献
19.
20.
NACHIKETA ACHARYA S C KAR MAKARAND A KULKARNI U C MOHANTY L N SAHOO 《Journal of Earth System Science》2011,120(5):795-805
The northeast (NE) monsoon season (October, November and December) is the major period of rainfall activity over south peninsular
India. This study is mainly focused on the prediction of northeast monsoon rainfall using lead-1 products (forecasts for the
season issued in beginning of September) of seven general circulation models (GCMs). An examination of the performances of
these GCMs during hindcast runs (1982–2008) indicates that these models are not able to simulate the observed interannual
variability of rainfall. Inaccurate response of the models to sea surface temperatures may be one of the probable reasons
for the poor performance of these models to predict seasonal mean rainfall anomalies over the study domain. An attempt has
been made to improve the accuracy of predicted rainfall using three different multi-model ensemble (MME) schemes, viz., simple arithmetic mean of models (EM), principal component regression (PCR) and singular value decomposition based multiple
linear regressions (SVD). It is found out that among these three schemes, SVD based MME has more skill than other MME schemes
as well as member models. 相似文献