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1.
Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.  相似文献   

2.
We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ c and P d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.  相似文献   

3.
The Aki-Utsu maximum likelihood method is widely used for estimation of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, but not all authors are conscious of the method’s limitations and implicit requirements. The Aki/Utsu method requires a representative estimate of the population mean magnitude; a requirement seldom satisfied in b-value studies, particularly in those that use data from small geographic and/or time windows, such as b-mapping and b-vs-time studies. Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to determine how large a sample is necessary to achieve representativity, particularly for rounded magnitudes. The size of a representative sample weakly depends on the actual b-value. It is shown that, for commonly used precisions, small samples give meaningless estimations of b. Our results give estimates on the probabilities of getting correct estimates of b for a given desired precision for samples of different sizes. We submit that all published studies reporting b-value estimations should include information about the size of the samples used.  相似文献   

4.
The recent seismicity catalogue of metropolitan France Sismicité Instrumentale de l’Hexagone (SI-Hex) covers the period 1962–2009. It is the outcome of a multipartner project conducted between 2010 and 2013. In this catalogue, moment magnitudes (M w) are mainly determined from short-period velocimetric records, the same records as those used by the Laboratoire de Détection Géophysique (LDG) for issuing local magnitudes (M L) since 1962. Two distinct procedures are used, whether M L-LDG is larger or smaller than 4. For M L-LDG >4, M w is computed by fitting the coda-wave amplitude on the raw records. Station corrections and regional properties of coda-wave attenuation are taken into account in the computations. For M L-LDG ≤4, M w is converted from M L-LDG through linear regression rules. In the smallest magnitude range M L-LDG <3.1, special attention is paid to the non-unity slope of the relation between the local magnitudes and M w. All M w determined during the SI-Hex project is calibrated according to reference M w of recent events. As for some small events, no M L-LDG has been determined; local magnitudes issued by other French networks or LDG duration magnitude (M D) are first converted into M L-LDG before applying the conversion rules. This paper shows how the different sources of information and the different magnitude ranges are combined in order to determine an unbiased set of M w for the whole 38,027 events of the catalogue.  相似文献   

5.
A method for determining medium quality factor is developed on the basis of analyzing the attenuation dispersion of the arrived first period P wave. In order to enhance signal to noise ratio, improve the resolution in measurement and reduce systematic error we applied the data resampling technique. The group velocity delay of P wave was derived by using an improved multi-filtering method. Based on a linear viscoelastic relaxation model we deduced the medium quality factor Q m, and associated error with 95% confidence level. Applying the method to the seismic record of the Xiuyan M=5.4 earthquake sequences we obtained the following result: (1) High Q m started to appear from Nov. 9, 1999. The events giving the deduced high Q m value clustered in a region with their epicenter distances being between 32 and 46 km to the Yingkou station. This Q m versus distance observation obviously deviates from the normal trend of Q m linearly increasing with distance. (2) The average Q m before the 29 Dec. 1999 M=5.4 earthquake is 460, while the average Q m between the M=5.4 event and the 12 Jan. 2000 M=5.1 earthquake is 391, and the average Q m after the M=5.1 event is 204.  相似文献   

6.
We try to give a quantitative and global discrimination function by studying m b/M S data using Fisher method that is a kind of pattern recognition methods. The reliability of the function is also analyzed. The results show that this criterion works well and has a global feature, which can be used as first-level filtering criterions in event identification. The quantitative and linear discrimination function makes it possible to identify events automatically and achieve the goal to react the events quickly and effectively.  相似文献   

7.
The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M0?=?1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and fmax?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.  相似文献   

8.
We have analyzed the behavior of the F2 layer parameters during nighttime periods of enhanced electron concentration by the results of vertical sounding of the ionosphere carried out with five-minute periodicity in Almaty (76°55′ E, 43°15′ N) in 2001–2012. The results are obtained within the frameworks of the unified concept of different types of ionospheric plasma disturbances manifested as variations in the height and half-thickness of the layer accompanied by an increase and decrease of N m F2 at the moments of maximum compression and expansion of the layer. A good correlation is found between height h Am , which corresponds to the maximum increase, and layer peak height h m F, while h Am is always less than h m F. The difference between h Am and h m F linearly increases with increasing h m F. Whereas the difference is ~38 km for h m F = 280 km, it is ~54 km for h m F = 380 km. Additionally, the correlation is good between the increase in the electron concentration in the layer maximum ΔN m and the maximum enhancement at the fixed height ΔN; the electron concentration enhancement in the layer maximum is about two to three times lower than its maximum enhancement at the fixed height.  相似文献   

9.
The dependence of the zonal geomagnetic indices (AE, Ap, Kp, Kn, and Dst) on the solar wind parameters (the electric field E y component, dynamic pressure P d and IMF irregularity σB) has been studied for two types of events: magnetic clouds and high-speed streams. Based on the empirical relationships, it has been established that the AE, Ap, Kp, and Kn indices are directly proportional to the E y value at E y < 12 mV m?1 and are inversely proportional to this value at E y > 12 mV m?1 for the first-type events. On the contrary, the dependence of Dst on E y is monotonous nonlinear. A linear dependence of all geomagnetic indices on E y is typical of the second-type events. It has been indicated that the specific features of geoeffectiveness of magnetic clouds and high-speed solar wind streams are caused by the dependence of the electric field potential across the polar cap on the electric field, solar wind dynamic pressure, and IMF fluctuations.  相似文献   

10.
In this study, continuous wavelet transform is applied to estimate the frequency-dependent quality factor of shear waves, Q S , in northwestern Iran. The dataset used in this study includes velocigrams of more than 50 events with magnitudes between 4.0 and 6.5, which have occurred in the study area. The CWT-based method shows a high-resolution technique for the estimation of S-wave frequency-dependent attenuation. The quality factor values are determined in the form of a power law as Q S (f)?=?(147?±?16)f 0.71?±?0.02 and (126?±?12)f 0.73?±?0.02 for vertical and horizontal components, respectively, where f is between 0.9 and 12 Hz. Furthermore, in order to verify the reliability of the suggested Q S estimator method, an additional test is performed by using accelerograms of Ahar-Varzaghan dual earthquakes on August 11, 2012, of moment magnitudes 6.4 and 6.3 and their aftershocks. Results indicate that the estimated Q S values from CWT-based method are not very sensitive to the numbers and types of waveforms used (velocity or acceleration).  相似文献   

11.
A preliminary study of b value of rocks with two kinds of structural models has been made on the base of a new acoustic emission recording system. It shows that b value of the sample decreases obviously when the sample with compressive en echelon faults changes into a tensile one after interchange occurs between stress axis σ 1 and σ 2. A similar experiment is observed when the sample with tensile en echelon faults changes into that with a bend fault after two segments of the en echelon fault linking up. These facts indicate that the variation of b value may contain the information of the regional dominant structural model. Therefore, b-value analyses could be a new method for studying regional dominant structural models.  相似文献   

12.
Quality factor Q, which describes the attenuation of seismic waves with distance, was determined for South Africa using data recorded by the South African National Seismograph Network. Because of an objective paucity of seismicity in South Africa and modernisation of the seismograph network only in 2007, I carried out a coda wave decay analysis on only 13 tectonic earthquakes and 7 mine-related events for the magnitude range 3.6?≤?M L ?≤?4.4. Up to five seismograph stations were utilised to determine Q c for frequencies at 2, 4, 8 and 16 Hz resulting in 84 individual measurements. The constants Q 0 and α were determined for the attenuation relation Q c(f)?=?Q 0 f α . The result was Q 0?=?396?±?29 and α?=?0.72?±?0.04 for a lapse time of 1.9*(t s???t 0) (time from origin time t 0 to the start of coda analysis window is 1.9 times the S-travel time, t s) and a coda window length of 80 s. This lapse time and coda window length were found to fit the most individual frequencies for a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 3 and a minimum absolute correlation coefficient for the envelope of 0.5. For a positive correlation coefficient, the envelope amplitude increases with time and Q c was not calculated. The derived Q c was verified using the spectral ratio method on a smaller data set consisting of nine earthquakes and one mine-related event recorded by up to four seismograph stations. Since the spectral ratio method requires absolute amplitudes in its calculations, site response tests were performed to select four appropriate stations without soil amplification and/or signal distortion. The result obtained for Q S was Q 0?=?391?±?130 and α?=?0.60?±?0.16, which agrees well with the coda Q c result.  相似文献   

13.
A multi-event and multi-station inverse method is presented in the paper to simultaneously estimate the seismic moments (M 0) and source corner frequencies (f c) of several Jiashi (Xinjiang, China) earthquakes, as well as the apparent Lg Q models for the paths from Jiashi to eight seismic stations (WMQ, AAK, TLG, MAKZ, KUR, VOS, ZRN and CHK) in Central Asia. The resultant seismic moments correlate well with the M 0 values obtained by Harvard University using the centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversion and the surface-wave magnitudes as well. After the correction by a typical value of average radiation coefficient for regional SV waves, the M 0 values from Lg spectral inversion are still close to the corresponding values obtained from CMT inversion. The obtained apparent Q 0Lg values (Lg Q at 1 Hz) are consistent with the tectonic features of corresponding propagation paths. The Q 0Lg values are 351±87, 349±86 and 300±27 for the paths from Jiashi to AAK, TLG and MAKZ, respectively. They are smaller than Q 0Lg values for the paths to KUR, VOS, ZRN and CHK, which are 553±72, 569±58, 550±57 and 603±65, respectively. These results agree with the condition that the paths to AAK, TLG and MAKZ mainly propagate through the mountainous Tianshan area where relatively strong seismic activities and large variations of topography are exhibited, while the paths to KUR, VOS, ZRN and CHK mainly propagate through the stable area of Kazak platform. The Q 0Lg value for the path to WMQ is 462±56. This is also in agreement with the condition that the path to WMQ is basically along the border area between Tianshan Mountain and Tarim Basin, and along this path the variations of topography and crustal thickness are moderate in comparison with that along the path to MAKZ.  相似文献   

14.
The complex seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the Ilin-Tas earthquake (Ms = 6.9), one of the strongest seismic events ever recorded by the regional seismic network in northeastern Russia, are carried out. The structural tectonic position, morphotectonic features of present-day topography, active faults, and types of Cenozoic deformations of the epicentral zone are analyzed. The data of the instrumental observations are summarized, and the manifestations of the strong seismic events in the Yana–Indigirka segment of the Cherskii seismotectonic zone are considered. The explanation is suggested for the dynamical tectonic setting responsible for the Andrei-Tas seismic maximum. This setting is created by the influence of the Kolyma–Omolon indenter, which intrudes into the Cherskii seismotectonic zone from the region of the North American lithospheric plate and forms the main seismogenic structures of the Yana–Indigirka segment in the frontal zone (the Ilin-Tas anticlinorium). The highest seismic potential is noted in the Andrei- Tas block—the focus of the main tectonic impacts from the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane. The general trend of this block coincides with the orientation of the major axis of isoseismal ellipses (azimuth 50°–85°), which were determined from the observations of macroseismic effects on the ground after the Uyandina (Ms = 5.6), Andrei-Tas (Ms = 6.1), and Ilin-Tas (Ms = 6.9) earthquakes.  相似文献   

15.
The seasonal cycle of the main lunar tidal constituent M 2 is studied globally by an analysis of a high-resolution ocean circulation and tide model (STORMTIDE) simulation, of 19 years of satellite altimeter data, and of multiyear tide-gauge records. The barotropic seasonal tidal variability is dominant in coastal and polar regions with relative changes of the tidal amplitude of 5–10 %. A comparison with the observations shows that the ocean circulation and tide model captures the seasonal pattern of the M 2 tide reasonably well. There are two main processes leading to the seasonal variability in the barotropic tide: First, seasonal changes in stratification on the continental shelf affect the vertical profile of eddy viscosity and, in turn, the vertical current profile. Second, the frictional effect between sea-ice and the surface ocean layer leads to seasonally varying tidal transport. We estimate from the model simulation that the M 2 tidal energy dissipation at the sea surface varies seasonally in the Arctic (ocean regions north of 60°N) between 2 and 34 GW, whereas in the Southern Ocean, it varies between 0.5 and 2 GW. The M 2 internal tide is mainly affected by stratification, and the induced modified phase speed of the internal waves leads to amplitude differences in the surface tide signal of 0.005–0.0150 m. The seasonal signals of the M 2 surface tide are large compared to the accuracy demands of satellite altimetry and gravity observations and emphasize the importance to consider seasonal tidal variability in the correction processes of satellite data.  相似文献   

16.
Using model simulations, the morphological picture (revealed earlier) of the disturbances in the F 2 region of the equatorial ionosphere under quiet geomagnetic conditions (Q-disturbances) is interpreted. It is shown that the observed variations in the velocity of the vertical E × B plasma drift, related to the zonal E y component of the electric field, are responsible for the formation of Q-disturbances. The plasma recombination at altitudes of the lower part of the F 2 region and the dependence of the rate of this process on heliogeophysical conditions compose the mechanism of Q-disturbance formation at night. The daytime positive Q-disturbances are caused exclusively by a decrease in the upward E × B drift, and this type of disturbances could be related to the known phenomenon of counter electrojet. Possible causes of formation of the daytime negative Q-disturbances are discussed.  相似文献   

17.
The change in the dependence of the F2-layer critical frequency on its height hmF2 is considered based on two sources of initial data used earlier by the authors. It is found that the slope k of the foF2 dependence on hmF2 systematically decreases from the earlier (“etalon”) period, 1958–1980, to the later periods of 1988–2010, 1998–2010, and 1998–2014. Since the foF2 value depends on the atomic oxygen concentration in the F region much more strongly than hmF2, the found decrease in k confirms the concept of a decrease in the atomic oxygen concentration in the thermosphere with time previously formulated by the authors.  相似文献   

18.
Analysis of the frequency dependence of the attenuation coefficient leads to significant changes in interpretation of seismic attenuation data. Here, several published surface-wave attenuation studies are revisited from a uniform viewpoint of the temporal attenuation coefficient, denoted by χ. Theoretically, χ( f) is expected to be linear in frequency, with a generally non-zero intercept γ?=?χ(0) related to the variations of geometrical spreading, and slope dχ/df = π/Q e caused by the effective attenuation of the medium. This phenomenological model allows a simple classification of χ( f) dependences as combinations of linear segments within several frequency bands. Such linear patterns are indeed observed for Rayleigh waves at 500–100-s and 100–10-s periods, and also for Lg from ~2 s to ~1.5 Hz. The Lg χ( f) branch overlaps with similar linear branches of body, Pn, and coda waves, which were described earlier and extend to ~100 Hz. For surface waves shorter than ~100 s, γ values recorded in areas of stable and active tectonics are separated by the levels of \(\gamma _{D} \approx 0.2 \times 10^{-3}\) s???1 (for Rayleigh waves) and 8 ×10???3 s???1 (for Lg). The recently recognized discrepancy between the values of Q measured from long-period surface waves and normal-mode oscillations could also be explained by a slight positive bias in the geometrical spreading of surface waves. Similarly to the apparent χ, the corresponding linear variation with frequency is inferred for the intrinsic attenuation coefficient, χ i , which combines the effects of geometrical spreading and dissipation within the medium. Frequency-dependent rheological or scattering Q is not required for explaining any of the attenuation observations considered in this study. The often-interpreted increase of Q with frequency may be apparent and caused by using the Q-based model of attenuation and following preferred Q( f) dependences while ignoring the true χ( f) trends within the individual frequency bands.  相似文献   

19.
The behavior of the F2 layer at sunrise has been studied based on vertical-incidence ionospheric sounding data in Almaty (76°55′E, 43°15′N). Records with small amplitudes of electron density background fluctuations were selected in order to exactly estimate the onsets of a pronounced increase in the electron density at different altitudes. It has been indicated that the electron density growth rate is a function of altitude; in this case, the growth rate at the F2 layer maximum is much lower than such values at fixed altitudes of ～30–55 km below the layer maximum. The solar zenith angle (χ) and the blanketing layer thickness (h 0) at the beginning of a pronounced increase in the electron density at altitude h are linearly related to the h value, and these quantities vary within ～90° < χ < 100° and 180 km < h 0 < 260 km, respectively.  相似文献   

20.
A better understanding of rockburst precursors and high stress distribution characteristics can allow for higher extraction efficiency with reduced safety concerns. Taking the rockburst that occurred on 30 January 2015 in the Sanhejian Coal Mine, Jiangsu Province, China, as an example, the mechanism of rockburst development in a roadway was analysed, and a combined method involving b values and seismic velocity tomography was used to assess the rockburst in both time and space, respectively. The results indicate that before the rockburst, b values dropped significantly from 0.829 to 0.373. Moreover, a good agreement between a significant decrease in b values and the increase of the number of strong tremors was found. Using seismic tomography, two rockburst risk areas were determined where the maximum velocity, maximum velocity anomaly and maximum velocity gradient anomaly were 6 km/s, 0.14 and 0.13, respectively. The high-velocity regions corresponded well with the rockburst zone and large seismic event distributions. The combination of b values and seismic tomography is proven to have been a promising tool for use in evaluating rockburst risk during underground coal mining.  相似文献   

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