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矿井水害一直是制约我国煤炭安全生产的重要隐患之一,对其进行准确的预测评价具有十分重要的理论意义和实用价值。本文根据煤层底板突水各影响因素之间的关系是灰色关系并且具有非线性特征的特点,建立了定量与定性指标为一体的煤层底板突水评价指标体系及等级划分标准。同时将灰色关联分析法(GRA)和模糊层次分析法(FAHP)相结合。构建了能真实反映影响因素与底板突水之间灰色关系和非线性关系的底板突水危险性评价模型,并应用模型对某典型工作面突水危险性等级进行了评价,可为今后煤层底板突水预测评价的研究提供一定的借鉴和依据。 相似文献
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为有效控制煤层底板带压开采突水发生,同时解决突水系数法评价底板突水的局限性,引入灰色模糊聚类法综合评价煤层底板突水危险性。以袁店煤矿101、102采区为例,通过对10煤层水文地质条件、底板充水水源和充水通道深入分析,提取评价煤层底板突水危险性关键指标,综合考虑岩溶裂隙发育、地质构造、隔水层厚度、裂隙含水层富水性、灰岩含水层厚度5个突水主控因素,并进行底板突水危险性分区。结果表明：101采区底板突水危险性较小,102采区危险性较大。建议对102采区局部富水地段进行注浆加固,以达到防治突水的目的。 相似文献
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随着华北型煤田开采深度不断增加,煤炭开采过程中的水文地质条件及突水主控因素日趋复杂多变,各主控因素与评价结果之间相互联系的模糊性和不确定性更加难以刻画,致使底板突水预测的难度精度不断增加。本文以某典型华北型煤田矿井为例,基于实际水文地质资料及钻探数据,充分考虑含水层水文地质特征、隔水层工程地质特征及软弱结构面发育特征,遴选含水层水压、单位涌水量、隔水层厚度、泥岩占比、岩体质量指数、层理面数量、构造复杂程度7个因子构建综合评价体系。利用组合赋权法及区间变权理论确定指标变权权重,并基于未知测度理论构建综合评价模型,对煤层底板突水危险性进行精细评价。与常权-未知测度理论、区间变权-物元可拓两种模型的评价结果对比显示,区间变权-未知测度理论的权重确定、隶属度计算更加合理,评价结果更加符合矿井地质条件及开采实际。井田范围内底板突水危险性为弱、较弱、较强、强的区域面积占比分别为2.26%,54.81%,38.05%,4.88%,底板突水危险性总体上较弱,危险性较强的区域集中在断层密集发育地带及隔水层薄弱区域。 相似文献
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在分析矿井突水影响因素的基础上,应用信息化手段集成GIS组件技术创建了突水预测模型库,实现了突水点预测、突水危险性分区、区域预测和顶板突水预测。运用该系统对平顶山煤业集团公司五矿首采区庚-采区突水危险进行了全面评价,认为在露头附近存在突水危险性,进而有针对性采用地面物探、井下超前探测以及帷幕注浆等综合防治水措施。经过治理,突水点涌水量由350m3／h减少为40～60m3／h,不仅保证了安全生产,还解放了庚组煤炭储量573．2万t。 相似文献
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从地质构造、含水层、隔水层、开采条件等方面详细分析了赵官井田10煤层底板突水的影响因素,确定了断层强度指数、褶皱分维值、"底板充水含水层组"水压、"底板充水含水层组"富水性、奥灰富水性、隔水层厚度、泥岩比率、底板破坏深度8个主控因素作为10煤层底板突水危险性评价的决策指标,并建立了各主控因素专题图;运用层次分析法(AHP)确定了各主控因素的权重系数,建立了基于"脆弱性指数法"的底板突水危险性评价模型,对10煤层底板突水危险性进行了定量评价,结果表明:在井田的南部煤层露头处脆弱性指数小,突水可能性较小;在井田的北部,特别是在井田东北部,脆弱性指数大,突水危险性较大。 相似文献
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神经网络在判别煤矿突水水源中的应用 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
矿井突水水源的识别是矿井防治水工作的基础，快速准确地判别突水的来源对整个矿井的安全生产起着十分重要的作用。以峰峰矿区梧桐庄矿为例，应用神经网络的方法，对矿井突水水源进行了系统研究。结果表明，运用该方法取得了较好的效果，并可以用此模型来解决类似的评价和判别问题。 相似文献
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准确圈定煤矿工作面底板突水预警重点监测区域,实现监测位置和潜在突水点位置在空间上的匹配,是突水灾害预警急需解决的问题之一。为研究煤矿工作面底板突水灾害预警重点监测区域评价技术,采用水文地质分析、GIS空间分析及ANN预测等技术手段,建立了底板突水灾害预警重点监测区域评价指标体系,提出了将不连续指标转化为连续指标的方法,建立了评价模型,研发了重点监测区域评价GIS系统,实现了煤矿底板突水灾害预警重点监测区域GIS与ANN耦合评价技术,最后以赵庄煤矿5303回采工作面底板突水监测预警为例,利用研发的系统圈定了该工作面重点监测区域。研究表明,确定预警重点监测区域的影响因素主要有含水层水压、含水层富水性、含水层防（隔）水煤岩柱厚度、老空区危险性指数、断层危险性指数、陷落柱危险性指数和封闭不良钻孔危险性指数,利用分段函数可以有效将不连续指标转化为连续指标,研发的评价系统可以实现煤矿突水灾害预警监测位置自动评价,评价结果与现场揭露及水害预警系统监测结果一致。 相似文献
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隧道岩溶突水、突泥危险性评价初探 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
通过对渝怀线圆梁山隧道等近20座隧道岩溶突水、突泥机制的深入研究,在充分考虑方法可操作性、适用性,定性与定量评价相结合的基础上,提出了“隧道突水、突泥危险性分级体系”。建立起了以可溶岩的物质结构、地质构造条件、场效应条件、其它条件因素为一级评价指标,以断裂破碎带宽度、承压水压力条件、地形地貌特征、隧道埋深等13个影响因素为二级指标的评价体系。用层次分析法确定了各因素的权重,采用定性、定量相结合的方法确立了各指标的隶属度,并根据隧道突水、突泥危险性级别制定了相应的防治措施。最后以圆梁山隧道毛坝向斜段为例,对隧道突水、突泥危险性进行了分级评价。结果表明,毛坝向斜段隧道突水、突泥极危险区长度为992 m,约占该段总长的54.07%。 相似文献
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对水环境质量综合评价中应用的多目标决策-理想点法进行了分析,认为实际上水环境质量评价标准是区间概念而非点的概念,因而传统的多目标决策-理想点法把评价标准处理成理想点存在一定缺陷。为了克服这种缺陷,提出了一种多目标决策-理想区间法(MODMIIM)。介绍了MODMIIM的原理,给出了它的构成方法,并把它应用到水环境质量综合评价中。MODMIIM与PP模型和神经网络法相比,简单、有效;与多目标决策理想点法相比,具有更大的适用性。MODMIIM可广泛应用于各种环境质量综合评价中。 相似文献
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Horie Kei Maki Norio Kohiyama Masayuki Lu Hengjian Tanaka Satoshi Hashitera Shin Shigekawa Kishie Hayashi Haruo 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(3):341-370
Rebuilding of victims' livelihoods was a crucial issue in the restoration process in the1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster. Housing damage assessment influencedmost of the rebuilding of the livelihood in the long term, because the Victim Certificatesissued by the local governments based on the results of the Housing damage assessmentwas required to receive most of the individual assistance measures. In the process ofHousing damage assessment, many complex problems arose, leading to extensivework on the part of the disaster responders. Consequently, a considerable number ofvictims were dissatisfied with the assessment and applied for a resurvey. Due to a floodof requests for resurvey, disaster responders had to work on damage assessment, leavingrelief activities aside.In order to facilitate Housing damage assessment, this paper discusses thefollowing five points: (1) the processes and the problems of assessments performedin the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster, (2) the changes in the nature of informationneeded by the victims, (3) the improvements over the present damage assessment, (4)the housing situation in Japan, and (5) the international situation on damage assessment.It is obvious from the results that a poor damage assessment system and the size ofthe disaster produced a very large work load. Differences in appreciation among theinvestigators also contributed to unfair assessments and led to the victims beingincreasingly dissatisfied by the survey results. Finally, a design concept for acomprehensive damage assessment system, which has been derived from theabove five points, is proposed for post-disaster management. 相似文献
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Dekang Zhao Qiang Wu Fangpeng Cui Hua Xu Yifan Zeng Yufei Cao Yuanze Du 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(7):2327-2340
Coal-floor water-inrush incidents account for a large proportion of coal mine disasters in northern China, and accurate risk assessment is crucial for safe coal production. A novel and promising assessment model for water inrush is proposed based on random forest (RF), which is a powerful intelligent machine-learning algorithm. RF has considerable advantages, including high classification accuracy and the capability to evaluate the importance of variables; in particularly, it is robust in dealing with the complicated and non-linear problems inherent in risk assessment. In this study, the proposed model is applied to Panjiayao Coal Mine, northern China. Eight factors were selected as evaluation indices according to systematic analysis of the geological conditions and a field survey of the study area. Risk assessment maps were generated based on RF, and the probabilistic neural network (PNN) model was also used for risk assessment as a comparison. The results demonstrate that the two methods are consistent in the risk assessment of water inrush at the mine, and RF shows a better performance compared to PNN with an overall accuracy higher by 6.67%. It is concluded that RF is more practicable to assess the water-inrush risk than PNN. The presented method will be helpful in avoiding water inrush and also can be extended to various engineering applications. 相似文献
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矿山环境评价方法综述 总被引：10，自引：2，他引：10
根据5大类型的矿山环境地质问题和矿山整体环境综合评价问题,本文提出:矿山环境评价可划分为单环境问题(要素)评价和多环境问题(要素)综合评价2大类型。 相似文献
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滑坡易发性定量评估是预测滑坡发生空间概率的重要手段,基于统计分析原理的评估方法目前在国内外应用最为广泛,且不同评估方法的对比研究逐渐成为热点。以青海沙塘川流域黄土梁峁区为例,剖析了信息量模型和逻辑回归模型在滑坡易发性评估中的优越性和局限性,并探索提出基于二者的耦合模型。考虑坡度、坡向、起伏度、岩性、与干流距离、与支流距离和植被指数等7个影响因素,对比分析了基于信息量、逻辑回归及二者耦合模型的滑坡易发性评估的技术流程及结果。3种模型的成功率分别为:耦合模型成功率(78. 9%)>信息量模型成功率(71. 8%)>逻辑回归模型成功率(70. 8%)。在沙塘川流域黄土滑坡的易发性评估中,信息量和逻辑回归模型的表现基本相当,但信息量-逻辑回归耦合模型的成功率明显提升。该研究结果可为黄土高原区滑坡易发性定量评估提供借鉴。 相似文献
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Uncertainty assessment in quantitative rockfall risk assessment 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Xueliang Wang Paolo Frattini G. B. Crosta Luqing Zhang Federico Agliardi Serena Lari Zhifa Yang 《Landslides》2014,11(4):711-722
This study shows a quantitative rockfall risk assessment (QRA) for a slope of the Feifeng Mountain (China), including an explicit assessment of the uncertainties. For rockfall risk analysis, the annual probability of occurrence, reach probability, temporal–spatial probability and vulnerability of tourists were calculated for both dry and rainy day conditions. The resulting individual risk for exposed people visiting the historical site can be considered as acceptable for all scenarios, whereas the overall societal risk lies within the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) zone and therefore requires some mitigation actions. For the explicit assessment of uncertainty, an error propagation technique (first-order second moment (FOSM)) was adopted, starting from expert knowledge heuristic estimations of the coefficient of variation for each component of the risk analysis procedure. As a result, coefficients of variation of the calculated risk were obtained, ranging from 48 to 132 %, thus demonstrating the importance of accounting for uncertainty in rockfall risk modelling. A multi-criteria methodology is also proposed for the assessment of the standard deviation of the parameters adopted for the stochastic rockfall run-out model. 相似文献
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GIS-based distributed technique for assessing economic loss from flood damage: pre-feasibility study for the Anyang Stream Basin in Korea 总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0
Large national budgets are required for flood damage reduction projects, making it critical to ensure that public money used
therein be spent efficiently. Accordingly, reliable assessment of flood damage is a critical issue in analysis of the economic
aspects of flood damage reduction projects. To this end, this study aims to provide a GIS (geographical information system)-based
technique for distributed flood damage assessment. We consider two aspects of flood damage assessment from an engineering
and economic perspective, i.e. flood inundation analysis and multi-dimensional flood damage analysis (MD-FDA). To perform
this assessment, we used a GIS-based framework and data processing method to assess damages. The proposed methodology was
applied to flood control channel projects for flood disaster prevention in the Anyang Stream Basin in Korea and presents detailed
GIS data processing and assessment results. Findings from this study may contribute to the improvement of usability of MD-FDA
and may provide research directions for integrating economic and engineering factors. This distributed technique will also
assist in the decision-making process when evaluating the economic feasibility of flood damage reduction projects for structural
and non-structural measures. 相似文献
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以康定城为例,提出了城市地质灾害危险性分区评价的新方法,建立了地质灾害易发性和地质灾害社会经济易损性评价因子指标体系与评价方法,在地质灾害易发性和易损性评价基础上,进行地质灾害危险性分区评价。其危险性等级划分标准与国务院地质灾害防治条例和突发地质灾害应急预案函中的划分标准一致,评价结果可直接用于城市地质灾害防治规划编制工作,为城市防灾减灾和实施地质灾害避让搬迁、监测报警和防治工程的实施提供了科学依据。 相似文献
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区域水环境质量灰关联度评价方法的研究 总被引：24，自引：0，他引：24
本文针对区域多级河流断面的水质评价和综合评价问题，提出一种灰关联分析的评价方法。它的特点是从水质标准的灰关联序关系上评价水环境质量，计算方法简单，而且结论符合实际。通过与现行的方法比较，说明它的实用性。 相似文献