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1.
In this paper, on the basis of intensity data from 85 earthquakes occurred in China, the method of resolving overdetermined equations by using the damped least squares method is applied to inversing for the mean value of 1 s. S wave quality factor, the spreading factor and the S-wave acceleration at the foci of earthquakes in 7 regions of China. The relation between S-wave acceleration at the foci of earthquakes and magnitude is discussed. As an example, 2-DQ S distribution in Taiwan Province is obtained by inversion. It is found that there exists some corresponding relation between this distribution and Bouguer gravitational anomaly and seismicity. Preliminary analysis and discussion on results of the inversion, and estimation of error inQ S are made. 相似文献
2.
从理论上推导了修正的古登堡-里克特模型的震级上限的确定方法, 应用常用的两种模型对我国分区域进行了震级-频度关系的修正和震级极限值的确定. 结果表明, 我国大陆存在非线性的震级-频度关系, 传统的NGR模型不能反映非线性的震级-频度关系, 而MGR模型能反映适合非线性和线性的震级-频度关系, 因此MGR模型适合我国各研究区中强以上地震的震级-频度关系. 当震级 频度关系为非线性时, 用MGR模型确定的震级极限值较准确． 相似文献
3.
地震震级—频度G-R关系的偏离度 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
假设震级—频度分布服从对应于G-R式母体分布污染的情况,文中引进震级分布偏离度(ζ)来描述实际资料分布与G-R式的偏离程度。在G-R式分布参数稳健估计的基础上给出了偏离度的计算方法。华北地区1980—1993年取资料时间窗长1年,滑动步长1个月的ζ值计算结果表明,6级左右强地震前的半年至一年半左右ζ值明显为相对稳定的低值,震后呈高值变化。它可能反映了强震孕育发生过程中地震活动强度分形结构的变化,存在一个有序态(确定性)和无序态(浑沌)转化的自组织性质。ζ值可在地震预报中作为一个分析判定指标。 相似文献
4.
Accelerated Seismic Release and Related Aspects of Seismicity Patterns on Earthquake Faults 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
—Observational studies indicate that large earthquakes are sometimes preceded by phases of accelerated seismic release (ASR) characterized by cumulative Benioff strain following a power law time-to-failure relation with a term (t f?t) m , where t f is the failure time of the large event and observed values of m are close to 0.3. We discuss properties of ASR and related aspects of seismicity patterns associated with several theoretical frameworks. The subcritical crack growth approach developed to describe deformation on a crack prior to the occurrence of dynamic rupture predicts great variability and low asymptotic values of the exponent m that are not compatible with observed ASR phases. Statistical physics studies assuming that system-size failures in a deforming region correspond to critical phase transitions predict establishment of long-range correlations of dynamic variables and power-law statistics before large events. Using stress and earthquake histories simulated by the model of Ben-Zion (1996) for a discrete fault with quenched heterogeneities in a 3-D elastic half space, we show that large model earthquakes are associated with nonrepeating cyclical establishment and destruction of long-range stress correlations, accompanied by nonstationary cumulative Benioff strain release. We then analyze results associated with a regional lithospheric model consisting of a seismogenic upper crust governed by the damage rheology of Lyakhovsky et al. (1997) over a viscoelastic substrate. We demonstrate analytically for a simplified 1-D case that the employed damage rheology leads to a singular power-law equation for strain proportional to (t f?t)?1/3, and a nonsingular power-law relation for cumulative Benioff strain proportional to (t f?t)1/3. A simple approximate generalization of the latter for regional cumulative Benioff strain is obtained by adding to the result a linear function of time representing a stationary background release. To go beyond the analytical expectations, we examine results generated by various realizations of the regional lithospheric model producing seismicity following the characteristic frequency-size statistics, Gutenberg-Richter power-law distribution, and mode switching activity. We find that phases of ASR exist only when the seismicity preceding a given large event has broad frequency-size statistics. In such cases the simulated ASR phases can be fitted well by the singular analytical relation with m = ?1/3, the nonsingular equation with m = 0.2, and the generalized version of the latter including a linear term with m = 1/3. The obtained good fits with all three relations highlight the difficulty of deriving reliable information on functional forms and parameter values from such data sets. The activation process in the simulated ASR phases is found to be accommodated both by increasing rates of moderate events and increasing average event size, with the former starting a few years earlier than the latter. The lack of ASR in portions of the seismicity not having broad frequency-size statistics may explain why some large earthquakes are preceded by ASR and other are not. The results suggest that observations of moderate and large events contain two complementary end-member predictive signals on the time of future large earthquakes. In portions of seismicity following the characteristic earthquake distribution, such information exists directly in the associated quasi-periodic temporal distribution of large events. In portions of seismicity having broad frequency-size statistics with random or clustered temporal distribution of large events, the ASR phases have predictive information. The extent to which natural seismicity may be understood in terms of these end-member cases remains to be clarified. Continuing studies of evolving stress and other dynamic variables in model calculations combined with advanced analyses of simulated and observed seismicity patterns may lead to improvements in existing forecasting strategies. 相似文献
5.
Víctor Hugo Márquez-Rámirez F. Alejandro Nava Pichardo Gabriel Reyes-Dávila 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(12):2091-2105
We explore fractal properties of two observed seismicity distributions prior to the 2003 M w 7.4 Colima, Mexico and 1992 M w 7.3 Landers, USA earthquakes, together with several mathematical fractal distributions and two non-fractal ones, in order to estimate minimum reliable sample sizes, determine whether fractality for observed seismicity is essentially different from random uniform distributions, and explore the possibility of extracting premonitory information from fractal characteristics of seismicity before large earthquakes. Sample sizes above 800 events for whole catalogs appear to be sufficient to maintain ordered multifractality and to yield dimension estimates that vary smoothly and reliably. Fractal estimates appear to be best for whole catalogs that include aftershocks. The fractal characteristics of spatial distributions of seismicity are essentially different from those of the uniform random distribution, which is the null hypothesis of a non-fractal distribution with minimum information. The fractal dimensions and afractality measures of seismicity distributions change with time and show distinctive behaviors associated with foreshocks and main events, although these behaviors are different for each example. Results suggest the possibility of a priori identification of foreshocks to large earthquakes. A combination of fractal dimension and afractality measures over time may be helpful in large earthquake premonitory studies. 相似文献
6.
The Vogtland/Western Bohemia region is part of the Saxothuringian Earthquake Province. It is an isolated area of active intraplate seismicity. Observations of the seismicity between 1962 and 1998 are summarized. More than 17000 earthquakes have been detected microseismically with M
L reaching from about –1.5 to 4.6. In the considered time interval, the catalogue of Vogtland events can be regarded as complete for magnitudes larger than 1.8. The region is well known for the occurrence of earthquakes clustered contemporarily in time and space. In this study, altogether 82 clusters are defined. Among them, clusters with swarm properties are distinguished from clusters with main shock accompanied by fore- and aftershocks, and from single events. 48 swarms are detected.The magnitude-frequency distribution of the maximum magnitudes of the clusters is studied. In the magnitude range 1.8 M
L 3.1, a bimodal character of the magnitude-frequency distribution is detected for both swarms and nonswarm-like events. The slope is greater for larger magnitudes than in the small-magnitude range. A gap in the magnitude-frequency distribution of clusters is observed for maximum magnitudes between 3.1 and 4.3. Furthermore, clusters themselves are characterized by the b-values of their magnitude-frequency distributions. Swarms show b-values greater than 0.7. Epicenters of swarms are confined to a few subregions. Epicenters of nonswarm-like events are distributed over a larger region than epicenters of swarms but hypocenters of swarms and nonswarm-like clusters may be located close to each other.The envelope of the distribution of magnitudes as a function of time is investigated. In the considered time interval, a statistically significant recurrence of strong events of about 72 months is discovered by a frequency analysis. Comparing the seismicity between 1897 and 1908 with the seismicity between 1962 and 1998 temporal variations in the recurrence become obvious. The Nový Kostel zone is discussed in more detail. The average hypocenters of swarms are located on a SW-dipping fault segment that intersects the Eger Rift in NNW-SSE direction.Discussing properties of the seismicity in the Vogtland/Western Bohemia region it is concluded that the increased seismicity may be explained by the presence of fluids on deep reaching faults. The occurrence of swarms, their variability as well as the small distances between hypocenters of swarms and nonswarm-like events point to strong lateral and possibly temporal changes of the properties of the fault system. 相似文献
7.
To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M w ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes (N) and time window (T w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here (N = 50 events and T w = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar. 相似文献
8.
An investigation to systematize empirical equations for the shear wave velocity of soils was made in terms of four characteristic indexes. The adopted indexes are the N-value of the Standard Penetration Test, depth where the soil is situated, geological epoch and soil type. As some of these indexes are variates belonging to interval scales while others belong to nominal or ordinal scales, the technique known as a multivariate analysis cannot be employed. A new approach to the theory of quantification, after C. Hayashi, was introduced and developed for solving this difficulty. Fifteen sets of empirical equations to estimate low strain shear wave velocity theoretically may be obtained by combining the above four indexes. All of these sets were derived by use of about 300 data, and their accuracies were evaluated by means of correlation coefficients between the measured and estimated shear wave velocities. The best equation was found to be the one which included all the indexes, and its correlation coefficient was 0.86. The empirical equation relating the standard penetration N-value to the shear wave velocity provided a correlation of only 0.72, and is one of the lowest ranking among the 15 sets of equations. 相似文献
9.
Seismicity is generally treated as an example of self-organized criticality. One alternative to this treatment may possibly be furnished by a model of seismicity that is thought of as a set of episodes of avalanching relaxation that occur randomly on a set of metastable subsystems. This model is defined by the parameter r, which specifies the hierarchical divisibility of the block structure of the medium, and by the parameter p, which specifies the probability for the incipient relaxation of a metastable state to continue. These two parameters together define the modeled value of the slope of the recurrence curve, or b-value, thus determining the mode of seismicity occurrence. This model is used to describe the seismicity in southern Sakhalin Island. In this modeling, the coefficient of hierarchical divisibility r in the block structure of the medium was assumed to be stationary and the disequilibrium parameter p was assumed to describe time-dependent variations of seismicity. We calculated models for the spatial variability of r and the time variability of p. We found abnormal growth in p during the Gornozavodsk earthquake (2006, M w = 5.6) and the Nevel??sk earthquake (2007, M w = 6.2). At present, we report values of p that are high (and increasing over time) in the wide area of the Poyasok isthmus. The results derived here are compared with other ideas on seismicity and with the experience that was previously gained in the area of earthquake prediction. 相似文献
10.
C. Qin E. E. Papadimitriou B. C. Papazachos G. F. Karakaisis 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1999,154(1):101-119
—The seismicity in the territory of China, a seismotectonically complicated region, has been examined by using three complete samples of earthquakes which occurred during the last two centuries (1800–1995). The b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation was estimated by using this data sample. Taking into account the fact that the b value is spatially more stable than the a value, the b values were calculated at the nodes of a normal grid superposing on the entire area studied, and their distribution was examined. The results showed that the b value increases smoothly from 0.4 in inner-Mongolia to 0.8 in the east, south and southwest of China with higher values (b>0.8) in the Taiwan region. Furthermore, keeping fixed the obtained b values, the a value distribution was also examined. In order to display more detailed information about the seismicity, smaller cell surface (10,000 km2) for the calculation of the a values was chosen. The mean return periods for different cutoff magnitudes were also calculated for each of these small cells. It was observed that the mean return periods are the shortest ones in China, which are 10 and 50 years for the magnitude larger than or equal to 6.0 and 7.0, respectively. 相似文献
11.
The G-R relation lgN=a-bM (1954) is an empirical formula used widely in the seismicity research. But the linearity of b curves has great difference in different time and space domains. An interested question in this paper is that in how large
a space-time-strength domain the b value has certain physical connotation. This study told us that we can get optimal statistical results of b value in those space-time domains which can develop correspondent strong shocks with magnitude interval (M
s≥8.5, 8.0≤M
s<8.5, 7.0≤M
s<8.0). Thus, the possible seismogenic areas in which strong shocks with different magnitude intervals develop can be inferred
in different regions of the mainland of China. Finally, some new problems are proposed, such as the delimitation of seismic
province, the seismicity parameter determination in seismic hazard analysis and in earthquake predictions by using b value.
Contribution No. 96A-0074, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China. 相似文献
12.
In this paper, on the basis of intensity data from 85 earthquakes occurred in China, the method of resolving overdetermined
equations by using the damped least squares method is applied to inversing for the mean value of 1 s. S wave quality factor,
the spreading factor and the S-wave acceleration at the foci of earthquakes in 7 regions of China. The relation between S-wave
acceleration at the foci of earthquakes and magnitude is discussed. As an example, 2-DQ
S distribution in Taiwan Province is obtained by inversion. It is found that there exists some corresponding relation between
this distribution and Bouguer gravitational anomaly and seismicity.
Preliminary analysis and discussion on results of the inversion, and estimation of error inQ
S are made.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 202–211, 1991.
The English version of this paper is improved by Professor Yushou Xie. 相似文献
13.
—The 1952 Kamchatka earthquake is among the largest earthquakes of this century, with an estimated magnitude of M w = 9.0. We inverted tide gauge records from Japan, North America, the Aleutians, and Hawaii for the asperity distribution. The results show two areas of high slip. The average slip is over 3 m, giving a seismic moment estimate of 155×1020Nm, or M w = 8.8. The 20th century seismicity of the 1952 rupture zone shows a strong correlation to the asperity distribution, which suggests that the large earthquakes (M > 7) are controlled by the locations of the asperities and that future large earthquakes will also recur in the asperity regions. 相似文献
14.
15.
Predictive equations based on the stochastic approach are developed for earthquake ground motions from Garhwal Himalayan earthquakes of 3.5≤Mw≤6.8 at a distance of 10≤R≤250 km. The predicted ground motion parameters are response spectral values at frequencies from 0.25 to 20 Hz, and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are derived from an empirically based stochastic ground motion model. The GMPEs show a fair agreement with the empirically developed ground motion equations from Himalaya as well as the NGA equation. The proposed relations also reasonably predict the observed ground motion of two major Himalayan earthquakes from Garhwal Himalayan region. For high magnitudes, there is insufficient data to satisfactorily judge the relationship; however it reasonably predicts the 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake (Mw=6.8) and 1999 Chamoli earthquake (Mw=6.4) from Garhwal Himalaya region. 相似文献
16.
Seismicity and seismotectonic deformations of the crust in the Southern Baikal basin 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
N. A. Radziminovitch V. I. Melnikova V. A. San’kov K. G. Levi 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2006,42(11):904-920
This paper addresses the seismicity of the Southern Baikal basin, where the M w = 6.0 earthquake of 1999 was the strongest over the period of instrumental observations in this region. Focal mechanisms of background earthquakes and aftershocks are analyzed in relation to faults mapped on flanks of and within the basin. Based on a supplemented catalog of focal mechanisms, the value and direction of seismotectonic strain are evaluated. The results show that the territory to the west of the transverse Angara fault (the Mishikhinskaya depression) experiences deformation of pure extension, while the E-W basin segment west of the fault is subjected to deformation of extension with shear (the transtension regime). The crustal deformation directions as determined from GPS measurements and seismological observations are found to agree well. The average seismotectonic strain rate of the crust amounts to 2.95 × 10?9 yr?1, which is about an order of magnitude smaller than the value obtained from geodetic observations. 相似文献
17.
In this study, the seismic quiescence prior to hazardous earthquakes was analyzed along the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone (SASZ). The seismicity data were screened statistically with mainshock earthquakes of M w?≥?4.4 reported during 1980–2015 being defined as the completeness database. In order to examine the possibility of using the seismic quiescence stage as a marker of subsequent earthquakes, the seismicity data reported prior to the eight major earthquakes along the SASZ were analyzed for changes in their seismicity rate using the statistical Z test. Iterative tests revealed that Z factors of N?=?50 events and T?=?2?years were optimal for detecting sudden rate changes such as quiescence and to map these spatially. The observed quiescence periods conformed to the subsequent major earthquake occurrences both spatially and temporally. Using suitable conditions obtained from successive retrospective tests, the seismicity rate changes were then mapped from the most up-to-date seismicity data available. This revealed three areas along the SASZ that might generate a major earthquake in the future: (i) Nicobar Islands (Z?=?6.7), (ii) the western offshore side of Sumatra Island (Z?=?7.1), and (iii) western Myanmar (Z?=?6.7). The performance of a stochastic test using a number of synthetic randomized catalogues indicated these levels of anomalous Z value showed the above anomaly is unlikely due to chance or random fluctuations of the earthquake. Thus, these three areas have a high possibility of generating a strong-to-major earthquake in the future. 相似文献
18.
IntroductionSince the magnitude-frequency relation (1)being proposed and applied to the research of global seismicity by Gutenberg and Richter (1944, 1954), it has been widely used in the practice of seismic hazard prediction and of the research of seismic activity in different tectonic regions of the world ((1) is normally known as the G-R law).While with the increase of observational data of events, much researches show that though (1) can fit data well for events with middle value of magn… 相似文献
19.
地震活动性统计学研究方法的若干进展与讨论 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
对统计学方法在地震活动性研究中的部分重要成果、最新研究进展进行了简要地回顾。重点介绍了余震衰减关系和震级、频度关系的相关研究成果及地震活动过程随机模拟等的发展趋势。 相似文献
20.
吴忠良 《地震地磁观测与研究》1992,(5)
通过震级-频度关系资料和地震台站分布资料的分析,发现震级-频度关系曲线在震级较小的一端的分布特征反映了地震能量分形和地震台站状况交互作用的结果,从而在地震序列分析中,考虑不同历史时期地震台站的状况及其影响,是一项必不可少的工作. 相似文献