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1.
In this paper the concept of Chaos and its applications to the study of predictability theory is introduced. The author's attempt is to give a general overview of ideas and methods involved in this problem to scientists,who are interested in the problem of predictability but not familiar with the theory of chaos. The problem is discussed in 4 sections. In the first section, the concept of chaos and the study methods are outlined briefly; in the second section, the methods of quantitatively measuring the main characteristics of chaos which are the basis for the predictability theory are introduced; the third section discusses the time series analysis for directly studying chaotic phenomena in practical problems; and the last section presents some research results on the chaotic characteristics and the predictability of the real atmosphere. 相似文献
2.
Abstract Cloudless‐sky solar fluxes calculated by the radiative transfer algorithm used in the Canadian Climate Centre's general circulation climate model are compared with measurements of upwelling radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and downwelling radiation at the surface. The 12‐layer model partitions the solar spectrum into two broad wavebands (0.25–0.68 and 0.68–4.00 μm). The comparison utilized TOA fluxes estimated from Nimbus‐ 7 measurements and measured downwelling fluxes at the surface for Kalgoorlie, West Australia, and downwelling fluxes at the surface for Woodbridge, Ontario. Model estimates and measurements agreed to within experimental error for most solar zenith angles. Estimates improved, especially at Woodbridge, when aerosol effects were included. The mean bias error was less than 4% for surface irradiance and less than 6% for upwelling TOA irradiance, which produces a TOA albedo error of about 0.01. 相似文献
3.
Potential Vorticity Structure and Inversion of the Cyclogenesis Over the Yangtze River and Huaihe River Valleys 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this paper, the potential vorticity structure and inversion of the cyclogenesis over the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys during 21 23 June 2003 are investigated with a potential vorticity （PV） framework. The cyclogenesis is manifested by a lower-tropospheric PV anomaly over the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys at early stages mainly due to latent heat release, which greatly affects the evolution of the associated lower-tropospheric geopotential height and wind fields as demonstrated by piecewise PV inversion. At later stages, an upper-tropospheric PV anomaly develops, resulting in the growth of ridges over the cyclone in both the upstream and downstream, which provide a favorable background field for the low-level cyclone development. But the effect of a surface thermal anomaly always impedes the development of the cyclone to different extents during this cyclogenesis. It is further demonstrated that the position and the strength of the PV anomaly are closely related to the low-level cyclone development, and the lower-tropospheric PV anomaly seems to constitute the most significant feature, for instance, contributing about 60% to the low-level jet （LLJ）. 相似文献
4.
Abstract The role of sea‐ice in affecting the stability and long‐term variability of the oceanic thermohaline circulation (THC) is studied in this paper. The emphasis is placed on studying how sea‐ice might affect the stability and the long‐term variability of the THC through modulations of the surface heat and freshwater fluxes. A simple box model is analyzed to elucidate qualitatively the distinct physical meanings of these two processes. The analytical solution of this simple model indicates that, for the long timescales considered here, the thermal insulation stabilizes the THC while the freshwater feedback increases the effective inertia of the coupled ice‐ocean system. Sea‐ice insulation lessens the negative feedback between heat flux and the SST, and therefore, allows the SST to play a greater role in counteracting changes of the THC and high latitude salinity field. The freshwater feedback effectively links the surface heat flux to a freshwater reservoir, and thus, increases the effective inertia of the coupled ocean‐ice system. A two‐dimensional ocean model coupled with a thermodynamic sea‐ice model is used to estimate quantitatively the magnitudes of these two feedbacks. The numerical experiments involve the model's responses both to initial anomalies and to changes of forcing fields. For the free response cases (model responses to initial anomalies without changing the forcing fields), the model shows that the decay rate of an initial anomaly is greater when sea‐ice is included. For small perturbations the thermal insulation effect dominates over the freshwater feedback. The latter becomes increasingly more important for larger perturbations. In response to a change of external forcing, the presence of sea‐ice reduces the magnitude and the pace of the model's response. The numerical results are qualitatively consistent with the analytical solution of the box model. 相似文献
5.
Ｉｎｔｅｒａｃｔｉｏｎｓｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｔｈｅ３０－６０ＤａｙＯｓｃｉｌｌａｔｉｏｎ，ｔｈｅＷａｌｋｅｒＣｉｒｃｕｌａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｔｈｅＣｏｎｖｅｃｔｉｖｅＡｃｔｉｖｉｔｉｅｓｉｎｔｈｅＴｒｏｐｉｃａｌＷｅｓｔｅｒｎＰａｃｉｆｉｃａｎｄＴｈｅｉｒＲｅ... 相似文献
6.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):109-116
Abstract The Kyoto Protocol allows a group of Annex B countries to fulfill their emissions limitation commitments jointly by forming a “bubble” equal to their collective commitment. Annex B countries, whether members of a bubble or not, can use the Kyoto mechanisms to help meet their emissions limitation commitments. I argue that Kyoto mechanism rules should be applied to Parties individually regardless of their membership in a bubble. This means there are virtually no advantages to joining a bubble, but it is not clear that the option to form a bubble should confer benefits on the members relative to other Annex B Parties that do not join a bubble. 相似文献
7.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(1):109-116
The Kyoto Protocol allows a group of Annex B countries to fulfill their emissions limitation commitments jointly by forming a “bubble” equal to their collective commitment. Annex B countries, whether members of a bubble or not, can use the Kyoto mechanisms to help meet their emissions limitation commitments. I argue that Kyoto mechanism rules should be applied to Parties individually regardless of their membership in a bubble. This means there are virtually no advantages to joining a bubble, but it is not clear that the option to form a bubble should confer benefits on the members relative to other Annex B Parties that do not join a bubble. 相似文献
8.
M. Sankar-Rao V. N. Lvkossov E. M. Volodin A. E. Nikitin A. I. Degtiarev Kusuma G. Rao 《大气科学进展》1991,(2)
The relationships between the global general circulation and the Indian monsoon during active and break phases are investigated with the help of FGGE IIIb data.It was found that the ultralong wave component positive and negative height anomalies over Tibet are associated with active and break monsoon phases respectively. This ultralong wave component has significant effect even upto 22°N over the Indian region which is the monsoon trough region. During a monsoon break, the general circulation was found to be more turbulent in the sense that more waves become energised.It was observed that during a break, blocking prevails over the Siberian region and cold air advection takes place toward Indian region from Siberian region depressing the temperatures over the Indian region by about 1℃. During the break, the Indian region gets connected with higher latitudes by the south winds blowing from polar Soviet regions to the Indian region. From active to break phase the zonal component weakens by about 25% from 相似文献
9.
It is well known that retrieval of parameters is usually ill-posed and highly nonlinear, so parameter retrieval problems are very difficult. There are still many important theoretical issues under research, although great success has been achieved in data assimilation in meteorology and oceanography. This paper reviews the recent research on parameter retrieval, especially that of the authors. First, some concepts and issues of parameter retrieval are introduced and the state-of-the-art parameter retrieval technology in meteorology and oceanography is reviewed briefly, and then atmospheric and oceanic parameters are retrieved using the variational data assimilation method combined with the regularization techniques in four examples： retrieval of the vertical eddy diffusion coefficient; of the turbulivity of the atmospheric boundary layer; of wind from Doppler radar data, and of the physical process parameters. Model parameter retrieval with global and local observations is also introduced. 相似文献
10.
The long-term relationship between the tree-ring-reconstructed annual precipitation in northeastern Mongolia (PRM) and the Northern Hemisphere Zonal Circulation (NHZC)§defined as the normalized zonal mean sea-level pressure at 60N in May-June-July, is examined in this study. A significant correlation coefficient (0.31) was found between the NHZC indices and PRM based on the dataset for the period of 1872–1995. The mechanisms responsible for the relationship are discussed through analyses of the atmospheric general circulation variability associated with NHZC. It follows that NHZC-related atmospheric circulation variability provides an anomalous southeast flow from the ocean to Northeast Mongolia (northwest flow from Northeast Mongolia to the ocean) in the middle and low troposphere in positive (negative) phase of NHZC, resulting in more (less) water vapor transport to the target region and more (less) precipitation in Northeast Mongolia. 相似文献
11.
Water stored as part of the land surface is lost to evapotranspiration and runoff on different time scales,and the partitioning between these time scales is important for modeling soil water in a climate model.Different time scales are imposed on evapotranspiration primarily because it is derived from different reservoirs with different storage capacities, from the very rapid evaporation of canopy stores to the slow removal by transpiration of rooting zone soil moisture. Runoff likewise ranges in time scale from rapid surface terms to the slower base-flow. The longest time scale losses of water determine the slow variation of soil moisture and hence the longer time scale effects of soil moisture on precipitation. This paper shows with a simple analysis how shifting the partitioning of evapotranspiration between the different reservoirs affects the variability of soil moisture and precipitation. In particular, it is concluded that a shift to shorter time scale reservoirs shifts the variance of precipitation from that which is potentially predictable to unpredictable. 相似文献
12.
The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in eastern China during summer 2020 suffered the strongest mei-yu since 1961. In this work, we comprehensively analyzed the mechanism of the extreme mei-yu season in 2020, with focuses on the combined effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the cooperative influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans in 2020 and from a historical perspective. The prediction and predictability of the extreme mei-yu are further investigated by assessing the performances of the climate model operational predictions and simulations. It is noted that persistent MJO phases 1?2 during June?July 2020 played a crucial role for the extreme mei-yu by strengthening the western Pacific subtropical high. Both the development of La Ni?a conditions and sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical Indian Ocean exerted important influences on the long-lived MJO phases 1?2 by slowing down the eastward propagation of the MJO and activating convection related to the MJO over the tropical Indian Ocean. The spatial distribution of the 2020 mei-yu can be qualitatively captured in model real-time forecasts with a one-month lead. This can be attributed to the contributions of both the tropical Indian Ocean warming and La Ni?a development. Nevertheless, the mei-yu rainfall amounts are seriously underestimated. Model simulations forced with observed SST suggest that internal processes of the atmosphere play a more important role than boundary forcing (e.g., SST) in the variability of mei-yu anomaly, implying a challenge in quantitatively predicting an extreme mei-yu season, like the one in 2020. 相似文献
13.
《大气科学进展》1993,(2)
Under semi-geostropical approximation, by means of phase angle function the non-linear ordinary differential equation is derived involving topography and zonal shear basic flow. Conditions for the existence of limited amplitude periodical and isolated wave solutions are directly obtained based on the qualitative theory of the ordinary differential equation. Analysis is thus made of the influence of topography and zonal shear flow on the existence of wave solution. Finally, explicit wave solutions are determined by function approaching with the result that topography and zonal shear flow affect not only the existence but also the form of waves, indicating the non-linear features of waves and the effect of topography and shear basic flow on undulation. 相似文献
14.
Alpine wetland is one of the typical underlying surfaces on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. It plays a crucial role in runoff regulation. Investigations on the mechanisms of water and heat exchanges are necessary to understand the land surface processes over the alpine wetland. This study explores the characteristics of hydro-meteorological factors with in situ observations and uses the Community Land Model 5 to identify the main factors controlling water and heat exchanges.Latent heat flux and therm... 相似文献
15.
Varotsos Costas A. Sarlis Nikos V. Efstathiou Maria 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(1-2):569-578
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Andean tropical glaciers have shown a clear shrinkage throughout the last few decades. However, it is unclear how this general retreat is associated with... 相似文献
16.
CISK-rossby wave and the 30-60 Day Oscillation in the Tropics 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The 30-60 day oscillation is an important aspect of the atmospheric variance in the tropical area. A number of works have been done on this phenomenon, this article is a further one. A quasi-geostrophic linear model that consists of a two-layer free atmosphere and a well-mixed boundary layer is used to investigate the instability of intraseasonal oscillation, its propagation and vertical structures. Results show that the dynamical coupling and interaction between the barotropic and baroclinic components via boundary layer convergence / divergence are responsible for the appearance of a new kind of low-frequency wave. Such wave is very different from the traditional tropical Rossby wave. It can propagate westward and eastward. Some behaviours of it appear to resemble the observed 30-60 day oscillation mode in many aspects, such,as vertical structures, zonal and meridional propagations. Now many researchers emphasize the direct relationship between CISK-Kelvin mode and the tropical atmospheric 30-60 oscil 相似文献
17.
《中国气象科学研究院年报》1994,(1)
ＴＨＥＥＦＦＥＣＴＯＦＴＨＥＩＮＴＥＲＡＣＴＩＯＮＡＭＯＮＧＭＵＬＴＩ－ＳＣＡＬＥＳＹＳＴＥＭＳＡＮＤＴＨＥＡＳＹＭＭＥＴＲＩＣＤＹＮＡＭＩＣＡＮＤＴＨＥＲＭＯＤＹＮＡＭＩＣＳＴＲＵＣＴＵＲＥＯＦＴＲＯＰＩＣＡＬＣＹＣＬＯＮＥＯＮＩＴＳＴＲＡＣＫＸｕ... 相似文献
18.
Keyan Fang Xiaohua Gou Fahu Chen Jinbao Li Rosanne D’Arrigo Edward Cook Tao Yang Nicole Davi 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(4):577-585
We present a Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction (r = 0.61, P < 0.01) from 1440 to 2007 for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, based on tree rings of the forest fir (Abies forrestii). Persistent decadal dry intervals were found in the 1440s–1460s, 1560s–1580s, 1700s, 1770s, 1810s, 1860s and 1980s, and
the extreme wet epochs were the 1480s–1490s, 1510s–1520s, 1590s, 1610s–1630s, 1720s–1730s, 1800s, 1830s, 1870s, 1930s, 1950s
and after the 1990s. Comparisons of our record with those identified in other moisture related reconstructions for nearby
regions showed that our reconstructed droughts were relatively consistent with those found in other regions of Indochina,
suggesting similar drought regimes. Spectral peaks of 2.3–5.5 years may be indicative of ENSO activity, as also suggested
by negative correlations with SSTs in the eastern equatorial and southeastern Pacific Ocean. Significant multidecadal spectral
peaks of 29.2–40.9 and 56.8–60.2 years were identified. As indicated by the spatial correlation patterns, the decadal-scale
variability may be linked to SST variations in the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. 相似文献
19.
By use of the two-layer adiabatic globe spectral model and the zonally averaged climatic data of winter season as initial values, 10-day integrations are carried out based on three kinds of model topography (i.e., (1) the averaged topography; (2) the envelope topography; (3) the modified envelope topography). The results show that the orography of the Northern Hemisphere plays an important role in the simulation of large-scale weather patterns in winter season. The simulation based on the envelope topography developed by Wallace et al. has some improvements in the Rocky Mountains area. But this scheme causes very serious horizontal expansion around the Tibetan Plateau (hereafter referred to as the TV). A modified envelope topography scheme has been worked out that increases the slope of the TP by decreasing the horizontal expansion while keeping the maximum altitude. The results show some improvements of the scheme around the TP. By analysis of the mechanical effects of the large-scale orography on the 相似文献
20.
Andy Thorpe 《Climatic change》2009,93(3-4):407-431
Anthropogenic processes are responsible for between 55% and 70% of the estimated 600 Tg of methane that is released annually into the atmosphere, with enteric fermentation a major contributor to emissions in a number of countries. This paper therefore reviews current levels of CH4 discharges by both animal type and country, and shows how the growth or decline in national herds over the last 20 years has significantly altered the global composition of enteric emissions. As developing countries are now responsible for almost three-quarters of such emissions, this has important implications in terms of mitigation strategies—particularly as such countries are presently outside the remit of the Kyoto Protocol. 相似文献