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A multi-dimensional Lorenz system, which includes thirty-three amplitude equations describing time evolution of convection, is derived from two-dimensional Boussinesq equations by using the Galerkin method. Its transition is studied by numerical solution. It is found that, with Rayleigh number increasing from zero to one hundred, five different types of motion appear one after another as follows: stationary motion, periodic motion, quasiperiodic motion with two-fundamental frequencies, quasi-periodic motion with three fundamental frequencies, and chaotic motion. By comparing with the Lorenz model and Curry's fourteen-dimensional model, it is shown that as retained modes increase, the critical values of transition become larger and the types of bifurcation change. The results of dynamic behavior happen to be in agreement with the Ⅲa route of the Gollub and Benson experiments. 相似文献
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The impact of sulfate aerosol, ClOx and NOx perturbations for two different magnitudes of CH4 sources on lower stratospheric ozone is studied by using a heterogeneous chemical system that consists of 19 species belonging to 5 chemical families （oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen, chlorine and carbon）. The results show that the present modeled photochemical system can present several different solutions, for instance, periodic states and multi-equilibrium states appearing in turn under certain parameter domains, through chlorine chemistry and nitrogen chemistry together with sulfate aerosol as well as the increasing magnitude of CH4 sources. The existence of catastrophic transitions could produce a dramatic reduction in the ozone concentration with the increase of external sources. 相似文献
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与非线性区域预测方法结合的月延伸预报试验Ⅰ:纬向平均环流的预报 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
为克服数值模式普遍存在的纬向平均环流预报误差,文中在36a NCEP/NCAR再分析高度场资料的基础上,应用非线性时空序列预测理论的局域近似法构建了200,300,500和700hPa4个等压面上的月尺度逐候纬向平均高度距平场非线性动力学区域预报模型.对1996年12个月所做的预报试验表明,无论是南、北半球中高纬度地区还是低纬度地区,非线性模型的候纬向平均高度预报结果均优于持续性预报、气候预报和T42L9模式动力预报.用非线性结果对T42L9模式月平均高度场预报结果进行订正,则使该谱模式系统性预报误差显著减少,也大大减少了其预报高度场的均方根误差,相应地,高度场距平相关评分也有一定程度的提高,表明纬向平均高度的非线性预报比谱模式动力预报包含了更多的有用信息. 相似文献
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In this paper a simple current system which consists of two stratified incompressible layers is examined. For the basic equations of the motion of fluid a lower order spectrum model is established by means of Galerkin method. Adopting the difference of wind velocity between the upper and lower layers, As =as a control parameter, the bifurcation and stability of the solution of the dynamical systemare discussed. It is found that the flow states in the lower layer will have a catastrophe, when where Cg is the phase velocity of the internal inertio-gravitational wave in a geostrophic current.These results may give a reasonable explanation for the mechanism of the catastrophe phenomena, including the "pressure-jump" in the atmosphere. 相似文献
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33模Lorenz系统的某些总体特征 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：4
本文除了用直观的模态阵图方法,简要地分析了二维Benard对流问题的高维截谱模式的构造外,还在33模系统求解结果的基础上,计算了系统的平均能量、平均耗散和平均垂直热通量.并根据这些描述系统的总体特征的物理量在一些模态子集上的分布,讨论了高维系统对原始方程的逼近问题. 相似文献
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Almost all climate time series have some degree of nonstationarity due to external forces of the observed system. Therefore, these external forces should be taken into account when reconstructing the climate dy- namics. This paper presents a novel technique in predicting nonstationary time series. The main difference of this new technique from some previous methods is that it incorporates the driving forces in the pre- diction model. To appraise its effectiveness, three prediction experiments were carried out using the data generated from some known classical dynamical models and a climate model with multiple external forces. Experimental results indicate that this technique is able to improve the prediction skill effectively. 相似文献
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利用33模Lorenz系统得到的"理想"混沌时空序列,作为时空混沌序列"发生器".通过状态空间重构,建立"场时间序列"局域近似预测模型,对资料空间分辨率,资料的长度、噪音,以及模型的参数选取等因素进行敏感性试验分析,了解时空混沌序列预测中误差产生和增长的一些影响因素.得到以下初步结论:对于理想混沌时空序列(33模Lorenz系统)而言,与系统相适应的资料空间分辨率和较长的资料长度都将会提高预测精度;可预报时效与资料长度之间近似服从指数关系.另外,在建立预测模型时,适当的邻近点数目,以及采用二阶映射关系和迭代法都可以有效地改善预测精度.对于加入噪音的混沌时间序列,通过"场时间序列"的局域近似方法和4阶自回归方法的预测试验的对比表明,前者显示了更强的抗"干扰"能力.以上结论可以有分析地应用于短期气候预测中. 相似文献
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