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1.
朱松丽 《气候变化研究进展》2009,5(2):103-109
欧盟提出了到2020年将温室气体排放在1990年水平上降低20%的目标,并提出了相应的政策措施。文章首先分析了1990-2005年欧盟减排成果,认为欧盟老成员国很难在第一承诺期内实现其在《京都议定书》之下的承诺。在这样的基础上提出进一步减排目标,必须有更严格的政策措施作保障,但现在的行动计划缺乏足够力量和信心。中东欧新成员国的加入有助于欧盟实现其第一承诺期目标,但随着经济发展的逐步恢复,这将给欧盟第二承诺期的减排目标带来挑战。 相似文献
2.
Comparison of preparatory signal analysis techniques for consideration in the (post-)Kyoto policy process 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Our study is a preparatory exercise. We focus on the analysis of uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission inventories. Inventory uncertainty is monitored, but not regulated, under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Under the Convention, countries publish annual or periodic national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Policymakers use these inventories to develop strategies and policies for emission reductions and to track the progress of these policies. However, greenhouse gas inventories contain uncertainty for a variety of reasons, and these uncertainties have important scientific and policy implications. For most countries, the emission changes agreed under the Protocol are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainty that underlies their combined (carbon dioxide equivalent) emissions estimates. Here we apply and compare six available techniques to analyze the uncertainty in the emission changes that countries agreed to realize by the end of the Protocol’s first commitment period 2008–2012. Any such technique, if implemented, could “make or break” claims of compliance, especially in cases where countries claim fulfillment of their commitments to reduce or limit emissions. The techniques all perform differently and can thus have a different impact on the design and execution of emission control policies. A thorough comparison of the techniques has not yet been made but is needed when expanding the discussion on how to go about dealing with uncertainty under the Kyoto Protocol and its successor. 相似文献
3.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(4):481-497
This paper presents a new sector-based framework — called the multi-sector convergence approach — for negotiating binding national GHG mitigation targets after the first budget period defined by the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012). The major characteristics of this approach are that: (i) it is based on the distinction of different sectors within the national economy; (ii) it prescribes that, in principle, the amount of per capita emission assignments should ultimately converge to the same level for all countries; (iii) it accounts for differences in national circumstances by offering the opportunity to grant additional emission allowances to countries facing specific circumstances that justify higher emission assignments; and (iv) it offers a framework for negotiating mitigation commitments among parties of the UNFCCC, including a (gradual) participation of developing countries that pass a certain threshold level of per capita emissions. In addition to briefly discussing the underlying principles of promising proposals to differentiate future GHG mitigation commitments, the paper outlines the methodology and major characteristics of the multi-sector convergence (MSC) approach, followed by some numerical illustrations. The paper is concluded by a preliminary assessment of the MSC approach. 相似文献
4.
Abstract In the long term, any definition of adequacy consistent with UNFCCC Article 2 will require increased mitigation efforts from almost all countries. Therefore, an expansion of emission limitation commitments will form a central element of any future architecture of the climate regime. This expansion has two elements: deepening of quantitative commitments for Annex B countries and the adoption of commitments for those countries outside of the current limitation regime. This article seeks to provide a more analytical basis for further differentiation among non-Annex I countries. To be both fair and reflective of national circumstances, it is based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate. Altogether, non-Annex I countries were differentiated in four groups, each including countries with similar national circumstances: newly industrialized countries (NICs), rapidly industrializing countries (RIDCs), ‘other developing countries’, and least developed countries (LDCs). Based on the same criteria that were used for differentiating among non-Annex I countries, a set of decision rules was developed to assign mitigation and financial transfer commitments to each group of countries (including Annex I countries). Applying these decision rules results in (strict) reduction commitments for Annex I countries, but also implies quantifiable mitigation obligations for NICs and RIDCs, assisted by financial transfers from the North. Other developing countries are obliged to take qualitative commitments, but quantifiable mitigation commitments for these countries and the LDC group would be not justifiable. As national circumstances in countries evolve over time, the composition of the groups will change according to agreed triggers. 相似文献
5.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):481-497
Abstract This paper presents a new sector-based framework—called the multi-sector convergence approach—for negotiating binding national GHG mitigation targets after the first budget period defined by the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012). The major characteristics of this approach are that: (i) it is based on the distinction of different sectors within the national economy; (ii) it prescribes that, in principle, the amount of per capita emission assignments should ultimately converge to the same level for all countries; (iii) it accounts for differences in national circumstances by offering the opportunity to grant additional emission allowances to countries facing specific circumstances that justify higher emission assignments; and (iv) it offers a framework for negotiating mitigation commitments among parties of the UNFCCC, including a (gradual) participation of developing countries that pass a certain threshold level of per capita emissions. In addition to briefly discussing the underlying principles of promising proposals to differentiate future GHG mitigation commitments, the paper outlines the methodology and major characteristics of the multi-sector convergence (MSC) approach, followed by some numerical illustrations. The paper is concluded by a preliminary assessment of the MSC approach. 相似文献
6.
Abstract In the coming years the international debate on commitments for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol will intensify. In this study, the Global Triptych approach is put forward as an input for international decision-making concerning the differentiation of commitments by 2020. It is a sector- and technology-oriented approach, and we calculated quantitative emission limitation objectives and global emissions starting from bottomup information on long-term reduction opportunities. Central to the calculations were long-term sustainability targets for the year 2050, formulated for (1) energy efficiency in the energy-intensive industry, (2) greenhouse gas intensity of electricity production, and (3) per capita emissions in the domestic sectors. Calculated emission limitation objectives for 13 world regions ranged from about ?30% to more than +200%. The ranking of world regions in the differentiation turned out to be independent of the levels chosen for the long-term sustainability targets. The objectives seem sufficient to maintain the long-term possibility of stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at about 550 ppm CO2-eq, but will require severe emission reductions. These may be relaxed to a certain degree if stabilization at 650 ppm CO2-eq is aimed for. We conclude that the bottom-up character of the approach made it possible to examine important basic principles of the Climate Convention, including equity, the needs and circumstances of developing countries, cost-effectiveness and sustainable development. 相似文献
7.
基于气候变化综合模型——全球变化评价模型（GCAM-TU),分析了2030年各国家/地区减排承诺下能源相关CO2的全球排放路径与不同可能性下2℃温升目标对应的最优排放路径的差距。研究发现,当前减排承诺下的全球排放路径与最优路径仍存在一定差距,各国家/地区需加大2030年后的减排承诺力度。进一步分析了主要国家/地区在各自减排承诺下的碳强度下降率、减排成本和人均碳排放,得出中国在全球减排进程中的努力和贡献是巨大的,而南非、日本等国承诺力度不足。为实现自主决定贡献,中国终端能源消耗将较参考情景有所下降,能源结构将进一步优化。 相似文献
8.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(4):465-480
This paper aims at exploring options for differentiation of future commitments in global greenhouse gas emissions control, linked to climate targets. This is done on the basis of the EU target of a maximum global temperature increase of 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. The Framework to Assess International Regimes for the differentiation of commitments (FAIR) is used to explore the implications of two possible climate regimes: (1) increasing participation (i.e. a gradual increase in the number of parties involved and their level of commitment according to participation and differentiation rules) and (2) ‘contraction and convergence’ (C&C) with universal participation and a convergence of per capita emission permits. It is found that in a regime of increasing participation, stabilising the CO2 concentration at 450 ppmv by 2100 requires participation of major developing countries before 2050 in global emission control, irrespective of the participation and differentiation rules chosen. In the case of stringent climate targets, a convergence regime seems to provide more incentives for a timely participation of developing countries, and opportunities for an effective and efficient regime for controlling global emissions than increasing participation. 相似文献
9.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):465-480
Abstract This paper aims at exploring options for differentiation of future commitments in global greenhouse gas emissions control, linked to climate targets. This is done on the basis of theEUtarget of a maximum global temperature increase of 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. The Framework to Assess International Regimes for the differentiation of commitments (FAIR) is used to explore the implications of two possible climate regimes: (1) increasing participation (i.e. a gradual increase in the number of parties involved and their level of commitment according to participation and differentiation rules) and (2) ‘contraction and convergence’ (C&C) with universal participation and a convergence of per capita emission permits. It is found that in a regime of increasing participation, stabilising the CO2 concentration at 450 ppmv by 2100 requires participation of major developing countries before 2050 in global emission control, irrespective of the participation and differentiation rules chosen. In the case of stringent climate targets, a convergence regime seems to provide more incentives for a timely participation of developing countries, and opportunities for an effective and efficient regime for controlling global emissions than increasing participation. 相似文献
10.
Abstract The Kyoto Protocol has an ambitious reporting and review system to assess Parties' compliance with their emission commitments. It is based on a ‘bottom-up’ approach; that is, each Party is required to submit detailed inventories of emissions and removals. This requires considerable resources and may still not detect all important cases of non-compliance. We consider the case for introducing ‘top-down’ methods; that is, independent inverse modelling methods that calculate probable emissions using measured concentrations of gases in the atmosphere and meteorological models. We argue that the top-down methods are at present too inaccurate, too cumbersome, and politically too problematic to serve as independent alternatives to the reported emission inventories for assessing compliance, although they could be useful in monitoring the global success of the protocol. We conclude that these top-down approaches may supplement the traditional emission inventories, in particular those dealing with fluorinated gases, thereby providing input for improving the emission inventory methods. 相似文献
11.
International negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change could take several different approaches to advance future mitigation commitments. Options range from trying to reach consensus on specific long-term atmospheric concentration targets (e.g. 550 ppmv) to simply ignoring this contentious issue and focusing instead on what can be done in the nearer term. This paper argues for a strategy that lies between these two extremes. Internationally agreed threshold levels for certain categories of impacts or of risks posed by climate change could be translated into acceptable levels of atmospheric concentrations. This could help to establish a range of upper limits for global emissions in the medium term that could set the ambition level for negotiations on expanded GHG mitigation commitments. The paper thus considers how physical and socio-economic indicators of climate change impacts might be used to guide the setting of such targets. In an effort to explore the feasibility and implications of low levels of stabilisation, it also quantifies an intermediate global emission target for 2020 that keeps open the option to stabilise at 450 ppmv CO2 If new efforts to reduce emissions are not forthcoming (e.g. the Kyoto Protocol or similar mitigation efforts fail), there is a significant chance that the option of 450 ppmv CO2 is out of reach as of 2020. Regardless of the preferred approach to shaping new international commitments on climate change, progress will require improved information on the avoided impacts climate change at different levels of mitigation and careful assessment of mitigation costs. 相似文献
12.
During the negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol, Brazil proposed allocating the greenhouse gas emission reductions of Annex I Parties according to the relative effect of a country’s historical emissions on global temperature increase. This paper analyses the impact of scientific uncertainties and of different options in policy implementation (policy choices) on the contribution of countries’ historical emissions to indicators of historical responsibility for climate change. The influence of policy choices was found to be at least as large as the impact of the scientific uncertainties analysed here. Building on this, the paper then proceeds to explore the implications of applying the Brazilian Proposal as a climate regime for differentiation of future commitments on the global scale combined with an income threshold for participation of the non-Annex I regions. Under stringent climate targets, such a regime leads to high emission reductions for Annex I regions by 2050, in particular for Europe and Japan. The income threshold assumptions strongly affect the Annex I reductions, even more than the impact of another burden-sharing key. A variant of the Brazilian Proposal, allocating emission reductions on the basis of cumulative emissions since 1990, would lead to a more balanced distribution of emission reductions. 相似文献
13.
J.David Tàbara 《Climate Policy》2003,3(1):19
Official figures submitted in 2002 showing the trends of GH gases during the period 1990-2000 indicate that Spain is a long way from in attaining its commitments with the international and national programmes on climate change. Both structural and cultural factors are used to explain the evolution in climate politics and the growth of its emissions with particular emphasis given to the lack of public participation in this respect. It is also argued that Spain will have either to buy emission reductions abroad or/and find new ways to reduce GH in a more decentralised manner in tune with its current Autonomous Communities’ (ACs) political organisation. 相似文献
14.
Any human-induced terrestrial sink is susceptible to the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, climate variability and other natural or indirect human-induced factors. It has been suggested in climate negotiations that the effects of these factors should be excluded from estimates of carbon sequestration used to meet the emission reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. This paper focuses on the methodologies for factoring out the effects of atmospheric and climate variability/change. We estimate the relative magnitude of the non-human induced effects by using two biosphere models and discuss possibilities for narrowing estimate uncertainty. 相似文献
15.
Climatic Implications of the Kyoto Protocol: The Contribution of International Spillover 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
We explore the long-run impact of the Kyoto Protocol commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions under various assumptions about the international spillover arising from actions led by the industrialised countries. International spillover comprises many complex processes including substitution due to price effects, diffusion of technology innovations, and policy and political spillovers. We represent these in terms of their aggregate impact on emission intensities over the next century. Limiting industrialised country emissions alone has limited environmental benefit if there is no international spillover; in our base case atmospheric concentrations by the end of the century rise to 730 ppm. However, this implies a large divergence of emission intensities, contrary to both empirical long term aggregate trends, and to identifiable influences towards convergence associated with economic globalisation. In contrast, if spillover leads to convergence of emission intensities by 2100, atmospheric concentrations are kept to below 560 ppm and are close to stabilising. Weargue that zero or negative international spillover, as assumed in manyanalyses, is not credible; we estimate the most likely range for the international spillover parameter in our model to be 0.5–1.0. For our base scenario this would imply a mean global average temperature change from pre-industrial levels by 2100 of 2.7–3.4 °C instead of 4.2 °C,and rising at only 0.15–0.29 °C/decade instead of 0.45 °C/decade.Long-run sea-level rise is greatly curtailed. The regional benefits to the industrialised countries are also magnified because of the spillover to developing county emissions. Although the aggregate degree of spillover is uncertain, the available evidence suggests that it will be important and environmentally beneficial in aggregate. Spillover will help to spread the global effectiveness of the Kyoto first period and subsequent commitments, and deserves much further scrutiny. 相似文献
16.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(3):327-341
Global climate change has emerged as a major policy issue in the last decade. The EU has fiercely advocated domestic action, but it is finding it hard to cope with its commitments. This is due to the stronger impact of interest groups on the national level when it comes to implementation. It is shown that Portugal and other cohesion countries may be incapable of complying with their commitments within the internal burden sharing agreement unless they manage to improve energy efficiencies. Fast growth in Portuguese emissions is expected in the face of a non-existent national plan and deteriorating energy efficiencies, unless additional measures and policies are implemented. Institutional and scientific deficiency supplemented by rapid economic development seem to be impeding the Portuguese policy goal. Moreover, the proposed formula to limit the use of flexible instruments places cohesion countries at a disadvantage. Several lessons for international and European environmental policy are taken from this case study. To reach the Kyoto target, the EU will have to develop credible mechanisms to enforce the targets of its Member States. If that is not feasible, it will have to revert to central acquisition of emission permits from abroad to make up internal shortfalls. 相似文献
17.
Abstract Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been established under the Kyoto Protocol as project-based instruments to mitigate greenhouse gases of the industrialized countries to the levels imposed by their Kyoto commitments. An unresolved issue associated with the implementation of these two flexibility mechanisms, concerns the choice of the appropriate baseline for calculating the emission reductions in JI or CDM projects. This article describes a computerized tool that constructs and compares different types of standardized baselines and benchmarks. The analysis focuses on the suitability of several different types of benchmarks for assessing the emission reductions of certain types of projects. The analysis is also expanded into a discussion of the extent to which benchmarks reduce the crediting of non-additional projects and limit the risk of missed additional investments. This tool has been applied to actual JI and CDM projects in the Russian Federation and Indonesia. 相似文献
18.
Michael Jakob Gunnar Luderer Jan Steckel Massimo Tavoni Stephanie Monjon 《Climatic change》2012,114(1):79-99
This paper compares the results of the three state of the art climate-energy-economy models IMACLIM-R, ReMIND-R, and WITCH to assess the costs of climate change mitigation in scenarios in which the implementation of a global climate agreement is delayed or major emitters decide to participate in the agreement at a later stage only. We find that for stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450?ppm CO2-only, postponing a global agreement to 2020 raises global mitigation costs by at least about half and a delay to 2030 renders ambitious climate targets infeasible to achieve. In the standard policy scenario??in which allocation of emission permits is aimed at equal per-capita levels in the year 2050??regions with above average emissions (such as the EU and the US alongside the rest of Annex-I countries) incur lower mitigation costs by taking early action, even if mitigation efforts in the rest of the world experience a delay. However, regions with low per-capita emissions which are net exporters of emission permits (such as India) can possibly benefit from higher future carbon prices resulting from a delay. We illustrate the economic mechanism behind these observations and analyze how (1) lock-in of carbon intensive infrastructure, (2) differences in global carbon prices, and (3) changes in reduction commitments resulting from delayed action influence mitigation costs. 相似文献
19.
Voluntary (or non-binding) commitments offer an action-oriented mechanism for addressing interconnected, complex and pressing issues. Though not designed to replace negotiated or binding outcomes, voluntary commitments can offer a critical tool in currently ungoverned or under-governed systems. The Blue Economy is an example of a rapidly evolving agenda where formal governance arrangements are at best nascent, in part due to the trans-border nature of issues and prominent involvement of multiple types of actors. As such voluntary commitments provide an important mechanism through which to monitor the evolution of the concept and identify gaps or shortfalls in its implementation. Our analysis of global voluntary commitments on the Blue Economy made to recent high-profile ocean futures meetings, found a trend towards capacity development, research, and investment in emerging and larger scale sectors such as offshore aquaculture and renewable energy. A concurrent focus was on securitizing, regulating or diverting effort from historically significant fisheries sectors. European organizations are playing a dominant role in Blue Economy commitments, with a notable absence of commitments from major Blue Economy powers such as China and India. We identify a number of gaps and shortfalls, particularly in relation to active consideration of social equity in the Blue Economy. We identify a range of recommendations on how these deficiencies may be addressed through a greater focus on a broader suite of objectives and a more inclusive approach to ocean meetings. 相似文献
20.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(1):27-40
Atmospheric CO2 concentration can be decreased not only by reducing fossil fuel burning but also by increasing the terrestrial ecosystems that serve as sinks for CO2. The Kyoto Protocol allows countries that are burdened with emission reduction commitments to use carbon sequestration by terrestrial sinks. However, opinions differ widely on how the inclusion of terrestrial carbon sinks in the legally binding framework (Article 3.3) will affect the demand for emission reduction during the commitment period. We approach this issue by combining a simulation model of the carbon stock change with that of land-use change. The result of the simulation shows that the Annex I countries in total may potentially claim for a net carbon offset as high as 0.2 GtC per year by carrying out ARD (Afforestation, Reforestation and Deforestation) activities. In order to come up with an effective long-term climate regime, political decisions are necessary to realize an appropriate balance between the sink enhancement and the emission reduction. Sink activities should not be too large to eliminate the efforts for emission reduction, nor too small to discourage the efforts in enhancing sinks. Although prediction of sink activities is an extremely difficult venture, several estimates of the potential should be carefully considered before political decisions. Appropriate inclusion of sink activities is also crucial for ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. 相似文献