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1.
Abstract

Statistical tests have been widely used for several decades to identify and test the significance of trends in runoff and other hydrological data. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test is commonly used in trend analysis. The M-K test was originally proposed for random data. Several variations of the M-K test, as well as pre-processing of data for use with it, have been developed and used. The M-K test under the scaling hypothesis has been developed recently. The basic objective of the research presented in this paper is to investigate the trends in Malaysian monthly runoff data. Identification of trends in runoff data is useful for planning water resources projects. Existence of statistically significant trends would also lead to identification of possible effects of climate change. Monthly runoff data for Malaysian rivers from the past three decades are analysed, in both five-year segments and entire data sequences. The five-year segments are analysed to investigate the variability in trends from one segment to another in three steps: (1) the M-K tests are conducted under random and correlation assumptions; (2) the Hurst scaling parameter is estimated and tested for significance; and (3) the M-K test under the scaling hypothesis is conducted. Thus the tests cover both correlation and scaling. The results show that the number of significant segments in Malaysian runoff data would be the same as those found under the assumption that the river flow sequences are random. The results are also the same for entire sequences. Thus, monthly Malaysian runoff data do not have statistically significant trends. Hence there are no indications of climate change in Malaysian runoff data.

Citation Rao, A. R., Azli, M. & Pae, L. J. (2011) Identification of trends in Malaysian monthly runoff under the scaling hypothesis. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 917–929.  相似文献   

2.
Drought/wetness conditions are fundamental not only for agricultural production but also ecology, human health, and economic activity. Dryness/wetness is a function of precipitation, temperature, vegetation and potential evapotranspiration. Regions with low moisture are often characterized by aridity which, in turn, reflects the degree of meteorological drought. Observed climatic data from eleven meteorological stations in and around Shiyang River basin, China, were used to calculate the aridity index (AI) which was defined as the ratio of potential evapotranspiration (ET0) to precipitation (P). ET0 was calculated using the Penman–Monteith method. The ordinary kriging method was used to interpolate the spatial variability of ET0, P and AI. The Mann–Kendall test with a pre-whitening method was employed using the Yue and Wang autocorrelation correction to detect temporal trends. The Theil–Sen estimator was used to estimate the slopes of trend lines. Results showed a higher AI in the north basin and a lower AI in the Qilian Mountain region. Annual ET0 and P had increasing trends with a slope of 0.672 and 0.459 mm per year, respectively, but trends were not statistically significant for most stations. While annual AI had a slight decreasing trend with a slope of ?0.01 per year, the trend was not statistically significant for all stations. The decreasing trends in winter AI (at a rate of ?0.313/a) was more significant than that in other seasons. The study indicates that the Shiyang River basin is getting slightly wetter, especially in winter.  相似文献   

3.
The information content of the 7-year BUV data set has been reexamined by a comparison with a fairly large set of ground Dobson and M-83 instruments. The satellite-ground intercomparison of total ozone was done under different types of ground observation techniques (observation code) and different instrument exposure (exposure code) and for various distances of the subsatellite point from the station. Because of the existing latitudinal gradient in total ozone, at a given station the bias ground-BUV tends to be smaller when the subsatellite point is at a latitude higher than the station's latitude. Knowing the total ozone gradient at a given station, the BUV total ozone has been corrected to account for the ozone gradient and the correlation was calculated with the corresponding ground observations. These correlations seem to offer no improvement when compared with the correlations between the ground ozone and the actual BUV ozone at distances of the subsatellite point from the station within 200 km from the station used in previous studies. The seasonal variation of the BUV-ground correlation reveals information on the noise level of the measurements and the geographical distribution of the percentage mean bias: (Ground-BUV)×100/(Ground) is discussed. Both on short and on longer time scales it appears that the BUV derived recommended total ozone data set is reasonably good and possible instrumental drifts are not large. The analysis includes an extension through April 1977 of the BUV and contour-derived total ozone trends byLondon andLing (1980). Over the northern hemisphere both data sets (contour and BUV) show comparable trends over middle and high latitudes which range from –3 D.U./year to –5 D.U./year during the 7-year period April 1970–April 1977. In the southern hemisphere, however, long-term variation in total ozone cannot be determined from ground observations alone. It is concluded that for unknown reasons during the 7-year period of study, total ozone has been decreasing over most of the globe. The negative growth rates at high latitudes of the northern hemisphere are highly significant.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

The trends of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation in southern China (Guangdong Province) for the period 1956–2000 are investigated, based on the data from 186 high-quality gauging stations. Statistical tests, including Mann-Kendall rank test and wavelet analysis, are employed to determine whether the precipitation series exhibit any regular trend and periodicity. The results indicate that the annual precipitation has a slightly decreasing trend in central Guangdong and slight increasing trends in the eastern and western areas of the province. However, all the annual trends are not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The average precipitation increases in the dry season in central Guangdong, but decreases in the wet season, meaning that the precipitation becomes more evenly distributed within the year. Furthermore, the analysis of monthly precipitation suggests that the distribution of intra-annual precipitation changes over time. The results of wavelet analysis show prominent precipitation with periods ranging from 10 to 12 years in every sub-region in Guangdong Province. Comparing with the sunspot cycle (11-year), the annual precipitation in every sub-region in Guangdong province correlates with Sunspot Number with a 3-year lag. The findings in this paper will be useful for water resources management.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Sheng Yue

Citation Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Xiaohong Chen and Quanxi Shao, 2012. Analysis of trends of annual and seasonal precipitation from 1956 to 2000 in Guangdong Province, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 358–369.  相似文献   

5.
ABSTRACT

Groundwater is an important resource in semi-arid Chile to meet local social, economic and environmental water demands. Historical ground water level (GWL) data (1986–2014) in the Coquimbo Region were analysed to characterize short and long-term alluvial aquifer dynamics. Long-term trends were assessed using a seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test, which indicated that more than 80% of the time series exhibit a negative trend. Short-term analysis using cross-correlation provided information on recharge origin and its spatial pattern. Runoff and GWL are highly correlated depending on elevation, signifying that stream to aquifer flow is an important recharge process at higher altitudes. Long-term recharge behaviour was characterized using time-frequency wavelet power spectra. The results show significant amplitude of the 5-year recharge period for GWL, which is driven by a 5-year El Niño index periodicity. Such results provide key information of the spatiotemporal functioning of aquifers.  相似文献   

6.
ABSTRACT

The occurrence of cyclic fluctuations and trends in water levels has been tested by examining a long-term series of mean annual water levels in 11 outflow lakes, mostly groove lakes, located in Northern Poland between 14° E and 23° E and situated at different altitudes up to 120 m above sea level.

Analysis of the occurrence of cyclic fluctuations of water levels has been carried out by means of mass curves. The regression method together with the moving average method applied to 10-year values of mean annual water levels were used to establish the trend in water levels.

On the basis of the research completed, it has been stated that long-term fluctuations of mean annual water levels of the lakes under investigation, in spite of the absence of a distinct periodicity, are characterized by a cycle with a 23-year period. The studies of the trends of mean annual water levels revealed a negative tendency ranging from—0·059 to—0·402 cm per annum.  相似文献   

7.
The period of direct groundwater storage measurements is often too short to allow reliable inferences of groundwater storage trends at catchment scales. However, as groundwater storage sustains low flows in catchments during dry periods, groundwater storage can also be estimated indirectly from daily streamflow based on hydraulic groundwater theory; this idea was applied herein to 17 selected Australian catchments to examine their long-term (half a century or longer) groundwater storage trends. On average, over past 45 years, groundwater storage exhibited negative trends in all the selected catchments, except in the Katherine River catchment located in the Northern Territory. These negative trends persisted over longer periods, close to 100 years in some catchments and the strongest decreasing trend of 0.241 mm per year was observed in the Barron River catchment in New South Wales. However, groundwater storage exhibited different trends over the different shorter periods. Thus, while during the period of 1997–2007, 15 out of the 17 catchments showed negative trends in groundwater storage, during the period of 1980–2000, 12 out of the 17 catchments exhibited positive trends in groundwater storage; this underscores the fact that record lengths of one or even two decades are inadequate to derive meaningful trends. Strong consistencies in the trends exist across most catchments, indicating that groundwater storage is affected by large-scale climate factors.  相似文献   

8.
Among braided rivers developed on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China at very high elevations（>3,500 m）,the middle and lower reaches of the Lhasa River have been affected by comprehensive human activities mainly involving dam construction,urbanization,farming,afforestation,and mining.In the current study,the impacts of these human activities on hydrology and morphology of the four braided reaches downstream of a cascaded of two dams are investigated.The study period was divided into 1985-2006（...  相似文献   

9.
Space geodetic techniques (e.g., Global Positioning System, GPS and very long baseline interference, VLBI) have been widely used to determine the precipitable water vapor (PWV) for meteorology and climatology, which was verified by comparing with co-located independent technique observations. However, most of these comparisons have been conducted using only short-time spanning observations at several stations. The goal of this study is to identify and quantify the systematic errors between VLBI and GPS PWV estimates using a 5-year (2002–2007), PWV data set constructed from co-located measurements and radiosonde data as well. It has found systematic errors between VLBI and GPS PWV estimations from comparisons with long-term co-located GPS measurements. The total mean VLBI PWVs are systematically smaller than GPS estimates with 0.8–2.2 mm for all sites, but can be as much as 15–30%. The subdiurnal PWV variation magnitudes and long-term trends between VLBI and GPS are nearly similar, but the VLBI-derived PWV trends are systematically smaller than GPS estimates with about 0.1±0.02 mm/year. These systematic errors in PWV estimates between VLBI and GPS are probably due to technique own problems, different used elevation angles and co-location separation.  相似文献   

10.
We analyzed the variations of the interplanetary plasma parameters, obtained from radio astronomical observations of scintillations of cosmic radio sources during four 11-year cycles of solar activity, from 1966 to present. It is shown that the state of the interplanetary plasma permanently changes in conformity with cyclicity in the solar activity. In the studied time period, besides the 11-year variations in the velocity and scintillation index, there is also an increasing linear trend of these variables, which is presumably due to a secular 80–90-year cycle of solar activity. The observed differences between the 11-year variations and trends in the solar wind velocity and interplanetary scintillation index suggest that the 11-year and secular cycles have different origins. It is found that these trends occur in this time period in each link of the Sun-Earth system: in the solar activity indices, in the characteristics of the interplanetary medium, and practically in all characteristics of the geophysical, demographical, medical, and other Earth’s processes. From the entire set of facts we can conclude that most of the analyzed Earth’s processes are dominated not by anthropogenic factors, but by the effects of the secular cyclic processes of the solar activity.  相似文献   

11.
《Marine pollution bulletin》2013,68(1-2):223-227
Temporal trends in Escherichia coli concentrations in bivalve shellfish were examined using data collected from 57 production areas around the coast of England and Wales during 1999–2008. Downward trends were detected in annual geometric means of E. coli in shellfish from 12% of the sampling points. The percentage of class B areas (E. coli ⩽ 4600/100 g shellfish in 90% of samples) increased from 69% to 86% during the 10-year period. The improvement in the microbial quality of shellfish is associated with sewerage improvement schemes largely implemented during 2000–2005. Upward trends were detected in 9% of the points. The causes of these increases are not known. It is recommended that quantitative sanitary profiling of shellfish waters and cost–benefit appraisal over long-term planning horizons are considered as part of sewerage investment programmes under the Water Framework Directive. This would allow greater scope to secure protection and improvement of shellfish water quality.  相似文献   

12.
Detailed major and trace element studies of volcanic rocks from Jefferson, Rainier, and Shasta stratovolcanoes in the Cascade Range indicate that each volcano has distinct geochemical distribution patterns. Silica variation diagrams are not smooth nor, in general, continuous for any volcano. Portions of stratigraphic sections within the volcanoes exhibit compositional coherency and are interpreted as eruptive groups which were extruded over time intervals which are short compared to the lifetimes of the volcanoes. The results of this investigation indicate the leasibility of geochemically mapping eruptive groups within stratovolcanoes. Systematic compositional trends are not observed within thick (500–1000 m) eruptive groups but may occur over thicknesses of <200 m. Compositional variations within eruptive groups are commonly non-systematic and show ranges similar to the ranges observed in individual flows. Correlations between the amounts or kinds of phenocryst phases present and intra-group compositional variation is not observed. Inter-group compositional differences are sometimes accompanied by mineralogical differences. Late andesites and dacites at Rainier and Shasta are characterized by decreases in K and Rb while at Jefferson increases in these elements and other compositional changes occur in the late eruptives. Progressive fractional crystallization models do not seem capable of explaining the element distributions observed in the three volcanoes. Existing data are consistent with a model involving varying degrees of melting of some combination of amphibolite, eclogite or peridotite in or above a subduction zone with varying water contents. Segregation and sequential eruption of small batches of magma may produce the eruptive groups characterizing the volcanoes. Late mafic magmas erupted at satellite vents appear to be produced in different (deeper?) mantle source areas.  相似文献   

13.
We compare lateral variations at the base of the mantle as inferred from a global dataset of PcP-P travel time residuals, measured on broadband records, and existing P and S tomographic velocity models, as well as ScS-S travel time data in some selected regions. In many regions, the PcP-P dataset implies short scale lateral variations that are not resolved by global tomographic models, except under eastern Eurasia, where data and models describe a broad region of fast velocity anomalies across which variations appear to be of thermal origin. In other regions, such as central America and southeastern Africa, correlated short scale lateral variations (several hundred kilometers) are observed in PcP and ScS, implying large but not excessive values for the ratio R=∂ ln Vs/∂ ln Vp (∼2.5). On the other hand, in at least two instances, in the heart of the African Plume and on the edge of the Pacific Plume, variations in P and S velocities appear to be incompatible, implying strong lateral gradients across compositionally different domains, possibly also involving topography on the core-mantle boundary. One should be cautious in estimating R at the base of the mantle from global datasets, as different smoothing and sampling of P and S datasets may result in strong biases and meaningless results.  相似文献   

14.
The correlation between cyclic (11-year) variations in geomagnetic activity and tropical cyclogenesis during the completed solar activity cycle (cycle 23, 1996–2006) is studied. The total number of the semidiurnal intervals, with the mean values of the planetary a p index not less than 40, for each year and the annual number of cyclones, regardless of their intensity, are used as the characteristics. The correlation coefficients r are calculated for each of the following four cyclogenesis regions: the Atlantic, northeastern and central Pacific, northwestern Pacific, and water areas of oceans and seas in the Southern Hemisphere. The conclusion that the correlation exists between magnetic storms and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, obtained earlier by Ivanov [2006] on the basis of the data for 1996–2005, is confirmed. It has been found that the linear correlation coefficient r changed in different regions from positive to negative values: 0.55, 0, ?0.50, and ?0.50, respectively.  相似文献   

15.
We analyze 100–150 years-long temperature and precipitation records from 14 meteorological stations in Romania, in connection with long-term trends in solar and geomagnetic activities. The comparison of solar (sunspot number) and geomagnetic (aa index) parameters with the mean air temperature over the Romanian territory, at interdecadal timescales, shows positive correlation coefficients, while the comparison with the mean precipitation shows negative correlation coefficients. The correlation of climatic parameters seems to be stronger for geomagnetic activity than for solar activity. The Romanian temperature series are examined in the context of other European stations and of averages on the European, northern hemisphere, and global scale, respectively. Long-term (interdecadal and centennial) trends and differences between local trends and average trends for larger areas are discussed. The study indicates that solar and geomagnetic activity effects are present on the 22-year Hale cycle timescale. The temperature variation on this timescale lags the solar/geomagnetic ones by 5–9 years.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract

Statistically significant FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) and adjusted Hargreaves (AHARG) reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends at monthly, seasonal and annual time scales were analysed by using linear regression, Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests at the 1 and 5% significance levels. Meteorological data were used from 12 meteorological stations in Serbia, which has a humid climate, for the period 1980–2010. Web-based software for conducting the trend analyses was developed. All of the trends significant at the 1 and 5% significance levels were increasing. The FAO-56 PM ET0 trends were almost similar to the AHARG trends. On the seasonal time scale, for the majority of stations significant increasing trends occurred in summer, while no significant positive or negative trends were detected by the trend tests in autumn for the AHARG series. Moreover, 70% of the stations were characterized by significant increasing trends for both annual ET0 series.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Gocic, M. and Trajkovic, S., 2013. Analysis of trends in reference evapotranspiration data in a humid climate. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 165–180.  相似文献   

17.
Alluvial mountain streams exhibit a range of channel forms: pool–riffle, plane bed, step–pool and cascades. Previous work suggested that these forms exist within discrete, and progressively steeper slope classes. Measurements conducted at over 100 sites in west‐central and central Idaho confirm that slope steepens progressively as one moves from pool–riffle, to plane bed, to step–pool, and finally to cascades. Median slope for pool–riffle topography is 0·0060, for plane beds 0·013, for step–pools 0·044, and for cascades 0·068. There is substantial overlap in the slopes associated with these channel forms. Pool–riffle topography was found at slopes between 0·0010 and 0·015, plane beds between 0·0010 and 0·035, step–pools between 0·015 and 0·134, and cascades between 0·050 and 0·12. Step–pools are particularly striking features in headwater streams. They are characterized by alternating steep and gentle channel segments. The steep segments (step risers) are transverse accumulations of boulder and cobbles, while the gentle segments (pools) contain finer material. Step wavelength is best correlated to step height which is in turn best correlated to the median particle size found on step risers. This result differs from past studies that have reported channel slope to be the dominant control on step wavelength. The presumed geometry and Froude number associated with the features under formative conditions are consistent with the existence field for antidunes and by extension with the hypothesis that step–pools are formed by antidunes. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
This study investigates how medium‐term gully‐development data differ from short‐term data, and which factors influence their spatial and temporal variability at nine selected actively retreating bank gullies situated in four Spanish basin landscapes. Small‐format aerial photographs using unmanned, remote‐controlled platforms were taken at the gully sites in short‐term intervals of one to two years over medium‐term periods of seven to 13 years and gully change during each period was determined using stereophotogrammetry and a geographic information system. Results show a high variability of annual gully retreat rates both between gullies and between observation periods. The mean linear headcut retreat rates range between 0·02 and 0·26 m a–1. Gully area loss was between 0·8 and 22 m² a–1 and gully volume loss between 0·5 to 100 m³ a–1, of which sidewall erosion may play a considerable part. A non‐linear relationship between catchment area and medium‐term gully headcut volume change was found for these gullies. The short‐term changes observed at the individual gullies show very high variability: on average, the maximum headcut volume change observed in 7–13 years was 14·3 times larger than the minimum change. Dependency on precipitation varies but is clearly higher for headcuts than sidewalls, especially in smaller and less disturbed catchments. The varying influences of land use and human activities with their positive or negative effects on runoff production and connectivity play a dominant role in these study areas, both for short‐term variability and medium‐term difference in gully development. The study proves the value of capturing spatially continuous, high‐resolution three‐dimensional data using small‐format aerial photography for detailed gully monitoring. Results confirm that short‐term data are not representative of longer‐term gully development and demonstrate the necessity for medium‐ to long‐term monitoring. However, short‐term data are still required to understand the processes – particularly human activity at varying time scales – causing fluctuations in gully erosion rates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ~500-year empirical record compiled by O’Loughlin and Lander (2003) was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map, the first of three constructed for this study. However, it is unclear whether the 500-year record is complete, so we conducted a seismic moment-balance exercise using a finite-element model of the Caribbean-North American plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog, and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c = 0.32. Modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500-year periods. We made a second probability map from numerically-calculated runup rates in each cell. Differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical-modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation; the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate-boundary events, whereas numerical model rates lack backarc fault and landslide sources. We thus prepared a third probability map using Bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20 km by 20 km coastal cell. Our best-estimate map gives a range of 30-year runup probability from 0–30% regionally.  相似文献   

20.
Traditionally a streambed is treated as a layer of uniform thickness and low saturated hydraulic conductivity (K) in surface‐ and ground‐water studies. Recent findings have shown a high level of spatial heterogeneity within a streambed and such heterogeneity directly affects surface‐ and ground‐water exchange and can have ecological implications for biogeochemical transformations, nutrient cycling, organic matter decomposition, and reproduction of gravel spawning fish. In this study a detailed field investigation of K was conducted in two selected sites in Touchet River, a typical salmon spawning stream in arid south eastern Washington, USA. In‐stream slug tests were conducted to determine K following the Bouwer and Rice method. For the upper and lower sites, each 50 m long and 9 m wide and roughly 20 m apart, a sampling grid of 5 m longitudinally and 3 m transversely was used. The slug tests were performed for each horizontal coordinate at 0·3–0·45, 0·6–0·75, 0·9–1·05 and 1·2–1·35 m depth intervals unless a shallower impenetrable obstruction was encountered. Additionally, water levels were measured to obtain vertical hydraulic gradient (VHG) between each two adjacent depth intervals. Results indicated that K ranged over three orders of magnitude at both the upper and lower sites and differed between the two sites. At the upper site, K did not differ significantly among different depth intervals based on nonparametric statistical tests for mean, median, and empirical cumulative distribution, but the spatial pattern of K varied among different depth intervals. At the lower site, K for the 0·3–0·45 m depth interval differed statistically from those at other depth intervals, and no similar spatial pattern was found among different depth intervals. Zones of upward and downward water flow based on VHG also varied among different depth intervals, reflecting the complexities of the water flow regime. Detailed characterization of the streambed as attempted in this study should be helpful in providing information on spatial variations of streambed hydraulic properties as well as surface‐ and ground‐water interaction. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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