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1.
The effect of baric variations of different origins on characteristics of seismic noise is analyzed in the frequency range 0.03–20 Hz. Long period variations in atmospheric pressure caused by cyclones, whose period T ranges from half a day to a few days, are shown to increase the microseismic background amplitude by two to four times in the frequency range 0.03–1 Hz (the coefficient of linear correlation between time variations in the amplitude and atmospheric pressure is K = 0.65 at a significance level of r = 0.95). Short-period baric variations with T ～ 5–30 min associated with the passage of cold fronts lead to a tenfold increase in the microseismic background amplitude in the frequency range 4–8 Hz (K = 0.67 at r = 0.95). In this case, disturbances of seismic background are recorded for 20–60 min after the passage of an atmospheric front and display an exponential drop in the amplitude. In distinction to cyclones, an atmospheric front increases the number of impulsive microseismic events of the resonance type.  相似文献   

2.
Time variations in the correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between the h(100) stratospheric parameter and the foF2 ionospheric parameter for more than two solar activity cycles (1979–2004) are considered. It is obtained that, for daytime values of the correlation coefficient r(h, fo) when all available years are considered, the absolute value of r(h, fo) decreases in time; i.e., the correlation weakening from the 1980s to the 1990s. This weakening is interpreted as a weakening of the eastward winds in the MLT region of the atmosphere, where presumably a filtration of internal waves providing interrelation of various atmospheric layers occurs.  相似文献   

3.
The time variations in three parameters during the last decades are considered. R(foF2) is the correlation coefficient between the nighttime and daytime values of foF2 for the same day. Stable trends are found for the minimum (R(foF2)(max)) and maximum (R(foF2)(min)) values of R(foF2) during a year. The foF2(night)/foF2(day) ratio demonstrates both, negative and positive trends, and the trend sign depends on the inclination I and declination D of the magnetic field. The correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between foF2 and the 100 hP level in the stratosphere demonstrates a decrease (in the years of maximum and minimum solar activity) from the 1980s to the 1990s. The trends in all three groups of data are considered under the assumption of long-term changes in the circulation in the upper atmosphere.  相似文献   

4.
We consider a transversely isotropic medium with vertical axis of symmetry (VTI). Rayleigh wave displacement components in a homogeneous VTI medium contain exp(±krjz), where z is the vertical coordinate, k is the wave number, and j?=?1, 2; rj may be considered as depth-decay factor. In a VTI medium, rj can be a real or imaginary as in an isotropic medium, or it can be a complex depending on the elastic parameters of the VTI medium; if complex, r1 and r2 are complex conjugates. In a homogeneous VTI half space, Rayleigh wave displacement is significantly modified with a phase shift when rj changes from real to complex with variation of VTI parameters; at the transition, the displacement becomes zero when r1?=?r2. In a liquid layer over a VTI half space, Rayleigh waves are dispersive. Here, also Rayleigh wave displacement significantly modified with a phase shift when rj changes from real to complex with a decrease of period. At very low period, phase velocity of Rayleigh waves becomes less than P-wave velocity in the liquid layer giving rise to Scholte waves (interface waves). The amplitudes of Scholte waves with a VTI half space are found to be significantly larger than those with an isotropic half space.  相似文献   

5.
Turbulence data(2008–2012) from a 325 m meteorological tower in Beijing, which consisted of three layers(47,140, and 280 m), was used to analyze the vertical distribution characteristics of turbulent transfer over Beijing city according to similarity theory. The conclusions were as follows.(1) Normalized standard deviations of wind speeds/ui * were plotted as a function only of a local stability parameter. The values under near-neutral conditions were 2.15, 1.61, and 1.19 at 47 m, 2.39, 1.75,and 1.21 at 140 m, and 2.51, 1.77, and 1.30 at 280 m, showing a clear increase with height. The normalized standard deviation of wind components fitted the 1/3 law under unstable stratification conditions and decreased with height under both stable and unstable conditions.(2) The normalized standard deviation of temperature fitted the.1/3 law in the free convection limit, but was quite scattered with different characteristics under near-neutral conditions. The normalized standard deviations of humidity and the CO2 concentration fitted the.1/3 law under unstable conditions, and remained constant under near-neutral and stable stratification. The normalized standard deviation of scalars, i.e., temperature, humidity, and CO2 concentration, all increased with height.(3) Compared with momentum, and the water vapor and CO2 concentrations, the turbulence correlation coefficient for heat was smaller under near-neutral conditions, but larger under both stable and unstable conditions. A dissimilarity between heat, and the water vapor and CO2 concentrations was observed in urban areas. The relative correlation coefficients between heat and each of momentum, humidity, and CO2 concentration(|rwT/ruw|, |rwT/rwc| and |rwT/ruq|) in the lower layers were always larger than in higher layers, except for the relative correlation coefficient between heat and humidity in an unstable stratification. Therefore, the ratio between heat and each of momentum, humidity, and CO2 concentration decreased with height.  相似文献   

6.
Characteristics of isolated substorms selected by variations in the 1-min values of the AL index are analyzed. The substorms were divided into several types with respect to the behavior of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during the expansion phase. The probability of observations of substorms associated with the northward turn of the Bz component of IMF was ~19%, while the substorms taking place at Bz < 0 were observed in 53% of cases. A substantial number of events in which no substorm magnetic activity was observed in the auroral zone after a long (>30 min) period of the southward IMF and a following sharp turn of the Bz component of IMF before the north was detected. The data suggest that a northward IMF turn is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for generating substorms. It has been shown for substorms of the both types that the average duration of the southward IMF to moment T 0 and the average intensity of the magnetic perturbation in the maximum are approximately the same and amount to ~80 min and–650 nT, respectively. However, for substorms at Bz < 0, their mean duration, including the expansive and recovery phases, is on average 30 min longer than that at a northward turn of IMF. Correlations between the loading–unloading processes in the magnetosphere in the periods of magnetospheric substorms were investigated with different functions that determine the efficiency of the energy transfer from the solar wind to the magnetosphere. It has been shown that the highest correlation coefficient (r = 0.84) is observed when the function suggested by Newell et al. (2007) is used. It has been detected that a simple function VB S yields a high correlation coefficient (r = 0.75).  相似文献   

7.
The time variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value are minutely studied based on the data of highly accurate seismological observations at the Garm prognostic site, Tajikistan, where a stationary network of seismic stations of the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth (IPE) of the USSR (Russian) Academy of Sciences was in operation from 1955 to 1992. A total of 93035 local earthquakes ranging from 0.0 to 6.3 in the Ml magnitudes are considered. The spatiotemporal fluctuations in the minimal magnitude of completeness of the earthquakes, Mc, are analyzed. The study considers a 25-year interval of the observations at the center of the observation system within which Mc = 0.9. It is shown that in most cases, the b-value and log10E2/3 experience characteristic time variations before the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than the minimal magnitude of the predicted earthquake (MPE). The 6-year anomaly in the parameters’ b-value, log10E2/3, and log10N associated with the single strongest earthquake with M = 6.3 that occurred in the observation region on October 26, 1984 is revealed. The inversely proportional relationship is established between the time variations in the b-value and the time variations in the velocities of seismic waves Vp and Vp/Vs. It is shown that the exponent p in the power function which links the time variations of the b-value and log10E2/3 is higher in the zones of crustal compression than in the zones of extension. It is simultaneously confirmed that the average b-value in the zones of compression is lower than in the zones of extension. It is established that in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 2.6, the time series of seismic activity log10Ni and the time series of the b-value are highly cross correlated with a coefficient of r ≈ 0.75, whereas in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 0.9, the coefficient of cross correlation between these time series is close to zero (r ≈ 0.06). The law of variations in the slope of the lines approximating the relationship between the log10Ni time series in the different magnitude ranges (M ≥ Mci) and b-value time series is obtained. It is hypothesized that the seismic activity of the earthquakes with high magnitudes can be estimated provided that the parameters of the time series of the b-value and time series of the number of earthquakes logN(ΔMi) in the range of low magnitudes are known. It is concluded that using the parameter log10N for prognostic estimates of the strong earthquakes only makes sense for earthquakes having moderate and large magnitudes. It is inferred that the time variations in the b-value are predominantly contributed by the time variations of the earthquakes with relatively large magnitudes.  相似文献   

8.
Statistical tests have been used to adjust the Zemmouri seismic data using a distribution function. The Pareto law has been used and the probabilities of various expected earthquakes were computed. A mathematical expression giving the quantiles was established. The extreme values limiting law confirmed the accuracy of the adjustment method. Using the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was made to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes. The seismic structure has been characterized by the slope of the recurrence plot γ, fractal dimension D, concentration parameter Ksr, Hurst exponents Hr and Ht. The values of D, γ, Ksr, Hr, and Ht diminished many months before the principal seismic shock (M = 6.9) of the studied seismoactive zone has occurred. Three stages of the deformation of the geophysical medium are manifested in the variation of the coefficient G% of the clustering of minor seismic events.  相似文献   

9.
We have analyzed the behavior of the F2 layer parameters during nighttime periods of enhanced electron concentration by the results of vertical sounding of the ionosphere carried out with five-minute periodicity in Almaty (76°55′ E, 43°15′ N) in 2001–2012. The results are obtained within the frameworks of the unified concept of different types of ionospheric plasma disturbances manifested as variations in the height and half-thickness of the layer accompanied by an increase and decrease of N m F2 at the moments of maximum compression and expansion of the layer. A good correlation is found between height h Am , which corresponds to the maximum increase, and layer peak height h m F, while h Am is always less than h m F. The difference between h Am and h m F linearly increases with increasing h m F. Whereas the difference is ~38 km for h m F = 280 km, it is ~54 km for h m F = 380 km. Additionally, the correlation is good between the increase in the electron concentration in the layer maximum ΔN m and the maximum enhancement at the fixed height ΔN; the electron concentration enhancement in the layer maximum is about two to three times lower than its maximum enhancement at the fixed height.  相似文献   

10.
Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.  相似文献   

11.
Based on the known forecast of solar cycle 25 amplitude (Rz max ≈ 50), the first assessments of the shape and amplitude of this cycle in the index of solar activity F10.7 (the magnitude of solar radio flux at the 10.7 cm wavelength) are given. It has been found that (F10.7)max ≈ 115, which means that it is the lowest solar cycle ever encountered in the history of regular ionospheric measurements. For this reason, many ionospheric parameters for cycle 25, including the F2-layer peak height and critical frequency (hmF2 and foF2), will be extremely low. For example, at middle latitudes, typical foF2 values will not exceed 8–10 MHz, which makes ionospheric heating ineffective in the area of upper hybrid resonance at frequencies higher than 10 MHz. The density of the atmosphere will also be extremely low, which significantly extends the lifetime of low-orbit satellites. The probability of F-spread will be increased, especially during night hours.  相似文献   

12.
The consideration of the relation between the daytime and nighttime values of the critical frequency F2, foF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer, started in the previous publication of the authors, is continued. The main regularities in variations in the correlation coefficient R(foF2) characterizing this relation are confirmed using larger statistical material (more ionospheric stations and longer observational series). Long-term trends in the R(foF2) value are found: at all stations the negative value of R(foF2) increases with time after 1980.  相似文献   

13.
Effects of temporally correlated infiltration on water flow in an unsaturated–saturated system were investigated. Both white noise and exponentially correlated infiltration processes were considered. The moment equations of the pressure head (ψ) were solved numerically to obtain the variance and autocorrelation functions of ψ at 14 observation points. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to verify the numerical results and to estimate the power spectrum of ψ (S ψψ ). It was found that as the water flows through the system, the variance of the ψ (\( \sigma_{\psi }^{2} \)) were damped by the system: the deeper in the system, the smaller the \( \sigma_{\psi }^{2} \), and the larger the correlation timescale of the infiltration process (λ I ), the larger the \( \sigma_{\psi }^{2} \). The unsaturated–saturated system gradually filters out the short-term fluctuations of ψ and the damping effect is most significant in the upper part of the system. The fluctuations of ψ is non-stationary at early time and becomes stationary as time progresses: the larger the value of λ I , the longer the non-stationary period. The correlation timescale of the ψ (λ ψ ) increases with depth and approaches a constant value at depth: the larger the value of λ I , the larger the value of λ ψ . The results of the estimated S ψψ is consistent with those of the variance and autocorrelation function.  相似文献   

14.
The study of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) parameters a and b has been very important to describe and characterize the seismicity over the different seismic provinces around the world. As far as we know, the possible correlation between the GR parameters a and b has not received enough attention. Bayrak et al. reported the a and b values for 27 active seismic regions around the boundaries of the main tectonic plates of the world. From these data, we found that there exists a positive correlation between the a and b parameters (R =?0.85, R2 =?0.72). On the other hand, we made around 150 computer runs of a spring-block model proposed by Olami et al. (Phys Rev Lett 68(8):1244–1247, 1992). This model roughly emulates the interaction between two fault planes and it reaches a self-organized critical state. With these simulations, we also found that the a and b parameters are positively correlated. Motivated by these results, we propose an analytical demonstration that indeed a and b are positively correlated. In addition, we discuss on other possible applications of the spring-block model to actual seismicity and to frictional experiments made with sandpapers.  相似文献   

15.
The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific(WNPTCF) in summer is investigated by use of observation data. It is found that their linkage appears to have an interdecadal change from weak connection to strong connection. During the period of 1948–1977, the NAO was insignificantly correlated to the WNPTCF. However, during the period of 1980–2009, they were significantly correlated with stronger(weaker) NAO corresponding to more(fewer) tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. The possible reason for such a different relationship between the NAO and the WNPTCF during the former and latter periods is further analyzed from the perspective of large-scale atmospheric circulations. When the NAO was stronger than normal in the latter period, an anomalous cyclonic circulation prevailed in the lower troposphere of the western North Pacific and the monsoon trough was intensified, concurrent with the eastward-shifting western Pacific subtropical high as well as anomalous low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the western North Pacific. These conditions favor the genesis and development of tropical cyclones, and thus more tropical cyclones appeared over the western North Pacific. In contrast, in the former period, the impact of the NAO on the aforementioned atmospheric circulations became insignificant, thereby weakening its linkage to the WNPTCF. Further study shows that the change of the wave activity flux associated with the NAO during the former and latter periods may account for such an interdecadal shift of the NAO–WNPTCF relationship.  相似文献   

16.
The study of rock samples from the Upper Permian Khei-Yaga River section revealed an r-n-r-n-r magnetic polarity succession based on the prefolding characteristic component of natural remanent magnetization. With account for stratigraphic and previous magnetostratigraphic data on Lower Triassic rocks from the Khei-Yaga River section, the examined strata of the Pechora Group (Silova Formation) may be compared with magnetic zones R1P2u and N1P3t in the magnetostratigraphic scale of European Russia. The gap in the paleomagnetic record, which corresponds in the examined section to the interval of the mid-Severodvinian Stage to basal Induan Stage, Zone N1T included, is estimated to be 10 Ma long. It is assumed that this hiatus represents one of the local signs of the global Permian-Triassic crisis.  相似文献   

17.
The 40-year period of observations of short-term variations (with characteristic times of up to 1–2 days) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) is analyzed. The continuous (with a step of 1 h) series of fluctuations (F) of the foF2 critical frequency (with eliminated daily variations) has been calculated using the hourly variations in foF2 at Moscow stations. The fractal dimension (FRH) of the fluctuations, characterizing short-term variations in foF2, has been determined and analyzed on a 30-day interval, using the Higuchi method. It has been established that FRH estimates substantially change in time. The 11-year cycle, which is in antiphase with the solar cycle, and the total annual and semiannual variations, similar to the variations observed in the normalized critical frequency of the E region and in the electron density of the D region, are clearly defined in these changes. Thus, the parameters of fast variations in the ionospheric F2 layer are affected by the phase of the 11-year solar cycle and by the position of the Earth in the orbit or seasonal variations in the atmosphere.  相似文献   

18.
The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m b and M d to M s or M w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.  相似文献   

19.
The seismic fragility of a system is the probability that the system enters a damage state under seismic ground motions with specified characteristics. Plots of the seismic fragilities with respect to scalar ground motion intensity measures are called fragility curves. Recent studies show that fragility curves may not be satisfactory measures for structural seismic performance, since scalar intensity measures cannot comprehensively characterize site seismicity. The limitations of traditional seismic intensity measures, e.g., peak ground acceleration or pseudo-spectral acceleration, are shown and discussed in detail. A bivariate vector with coordinates moment magnitude m and source-to-site distance r is proposed as an alternative seismic intensity measure. Implicitly, fragility surfaces in the (m, r)-space could be used as graphical representations of seismic fragility. Unlike fragility curves, which are functions of scalar intensity measures, fragility surfaces are characterized by two earthquake-hazard parameters, (m, r). The calculation of fragility surfaces may be computationally expensive for complex systems. Thus, as solutions to this issue, a bi-variate log-normal parametric model and an efficient calculation method, based on stochastic-reduced-order models, for fragility surfaces are proposed.  相似文献   

20.
Aftershock sequences of some strong earthquakes of Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands, and Japan are examined. Such source parameters as the length L, along-dip width W, motion on fault D, and stress drop Δσ are determined from the aftershock sequences considered. The values of these parameters were obtained by the formal estimation of linear source parameters (lower bound estimates) and visually (upper bound estimates). The correlation dependences of the obtained parameters on the surface wave (M S ) and seismic moment (M W ) magnitudes are calculated.  相似文献   

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