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1.
We consider a transversely isotropic medium with vertical axis of symmetry (VTI). Rayleigh wave displacement components in a homogeneous VTI medium contain exp(±krjz), where z is the vertical coordinate, k is the wave number, and j?=?1, 2; rj may be considered as depth-decay factor. In a VTI medium, rj can be a real or imaginary as in an isotropic medium, or it can be a complex depending on the elastic parameters of the VTI medium; if complex, r1 and r2 are complex conjugates. In a homogeneous VTI half space, Rayleigh wave displacement is significantly modified with a phase shift when rj changes from real to complex with variation of VTI parameters; at the transition, the displacement becomes zero when r1?=?r2. In a liquid layer over a VTI half space, Rayleigh waves are dispersive. Here, also Rayleigh wave displacement significantly modified with a phase shift when rj changes from real to complex with a decrease of period. At very low period, phase velocity of Rayleigh waves becomes less than P-wave velocity in the liquid layer giving rise to Scholte waves (interface waves). The amplitudes of Scholte waves with a VTI half space are found to be significantly larger than those with an isotropic half space.  相似文献   

2.
We studied the effects of expected end-of-the-century pCO2 (1000 ppm) on the photosynthetic performance of a coastal marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC7002 during the lag, exponential, and stationary growth phases. Elevated pCO2 significantly stimulated growth, and enhanced the maximum cell density during the stationary phase. Under ambient pCO2 conditions, the lag phase lasted for 6 days, while elevated pCO2 shortened the lag phase to two days and extended the exponential phase by four days. The elevated pCO2 increased photosynthesis levels during the lag and exponential phases, but reduced them during the stationary phase. Moreover, the elevated pCO2 reduced the saturated growth light (Ik) and increased the light utilization efficiency (α) during the exponential and stationary phases, and elevated the phycobilisome:chlorophyll a (Chl a) ratio. Furthermore, the elevated pCO2 reduced the particulate organic carbon (POC):Chl a and particulate organic nitrogen (PON):Chl a ratios during the lag and stationary phases, but enhanced them during the exponential phase. Overall, Synechococcus showed differential physiological responses to elevated pCO2 during different growth phases, thus providing insight into previous studies that focused on only the exponential phase, which may have biased the results relative to the effects of elevated pCO2 in ecology or aquaculture.  相似文献   

3.
Six species of more than 20-year-old desert woody plants in the oasis-desert ecotone were selected for study. The results showed that: (1) in different growing seasons δ13C values of assimilating organ varied between -14%. and -16%. for Haloxylon ammodendron (HA),-14%. - -15%. for Calligonum mongolicum (CM) and -25%. - -28%. for Caragana korshinskii (CK), Nitraria sphaerocarpa (NS) and Hedysarum scoparium (HS). (2) The net photosynthetic rate (Pn) of HA and CM was significantly higher than those of the other species. With the decrease in Pn for the six species, their intercellular CO2 concentration increased, but stomatal limitation value decreased under the intensive light. At the same time, the photochemical efficiency of PS II dropped to different degrees. (3) The CO2 enrichment experiment demonstrated that, Pn of HA and CM increased to different extent under 450 μmol/mol, but their Pn reduced or approximated to the current condition under 650 μmol/mol. Under 450 μmol/mol the efficiency for solar energy utilization of CK and HS significantly reduced and under 650 μmol/mol their respiration rate exceeded photosynthesis rate. It can be concluded that HA and CM have some function of pathway for C4 but the other three species have the function for C3. The decline in their Pn is mainly caused by non-stomatal factors. HA, CM, CK and HS exhibited photoinhibition, which disappeared in a short time. This is a kind of positive readjustment to adapting to the desert environment. HA and CM can adapt to the high CO2 environment, but CK and HS cannot. With the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate warming, the latter two species in the oasis-desert ecotone may be gradually degraded or even disappear.  相似文献   

4.
Recent estimates of fracture energy G ′ in earthquakes show a power-law dependence with slip u which can be summarized as G ′ ∝ u a where a is a positive real slightly larger than one. For cracks with sliding friction, fracture energy can be equated to G f : the post-failure integral of the dynamic weakening curve. If the dominant dissipative process in earthquakes is friction, G ′ and G f should be comparable and show a similar scaling with slip. We test this hypothesis by analyzing experiments performed on various cohesive and non-cohesive rock types, under wet and dry conditions, with imposed deformation typical of seismic slip (normal stress of tens of MPa, target slip velocity > 1 m/s and fast accelerations ≈ 6.5 m/s2). The resulting fracture energy G f is similar to the seismological estimates, with G f and G ′ being comparable over most of the slip range. However, G f appears to saturate after several meters of slip, while in most of the reported earthquake sequences, G ′ appears to increase further and surpasses G f at large magnitudes. We analyze several possible causes of such discrepancy, in particular, additional off-fault damage in large natural earthquakes.  相似文献   

5.
An experiment on evapotranspiration from citrus trees under irrigation with saline water was carried out for 4 months. Two lysimeters planted with a citrus tree in the green house were used. One lysimeter was irrigated with saline water (NaCl and CaCl2 of 2000 mg/L equivalence,EC = 3.8 dS/m, SAR = 5.9) and the other was irrigated with freshwater using drip irrigation. The applied irrigation water was 1.2 times that of the evapotranspiration on the previous day. Evapotranspiration was calculated as the change in lysimeter weight recorded every 30 minutes. The lysimeters were filled with soil with 95.8% sand. The results of the experiment were as follows. (i) The evapotranspiration from citrus tree was reduced after irrigation with saline water. The evapotranspiration returns to normal after leaching. However it takes months to exhaust the salt from the tree. (ii) To estimate the impact of irrigation with saline water on the evapotranspiration from citrus trees, the reduction coefficient due to salt stress (Ks) was used in this experiment. Evapotranspiration under irrigation with saline water (ET s ) can be calculated from evapotranspiration under irrigation with freshwater (ET) by the equationET s =K s × ET. Ks can be expressed as a function ofEC sw . (iii) The critical soil-water electrical conductivity (EC sw ) is 9.5 dS/m, beyond which adverse effects on evapotranspiration begin to appear. IfEC sw can be controlled at below 9.5 dS/m, saline water can be safely used for irrigation.  相似文献   

6.
Cushion is a layer of granular materials between the raft and the ground. The shear behavior of the interface between the cushion and the raft may influence the seismic performance of the superstructure. In order to quantify such influences, horizontal shear tests on the interfaces between different cushion materials and concrete raft under monotonic and cyclic loading were carried out. The vertical pressure P_v, material type and cushion thickness h_c were taken as variables. Conclusions include: 1) under monotonic loading, P_v is the most significant factor; the shear resistance P_(hmax) increases as P_v increases, but the normalized factor of resistance μ_n has an opposite tendency; 2) for the materials used in this study, μ_n varies from 0.40 to 0.70, the interface friction angle δ_s varies from 20° to 35°, while u_(max) varies from 3 mm to 15 mm; 3) under cyclic loading, the interface behavior can be abstracted as a "three-segment" back-bone curve, the main parameters include μ_n, the displacement u_1 and stiffness K_1 of the elastic stage, the displacement u_2 and stiffness K_2 of the plastic stage; 4) by observation and statistical analysis, the significance of different factors, together with values of K_1, K_2 and μ_n have been obtained.  相似文献   

7.
Statistical tests have been used to adjust the Zemmouri seismic data using a distribution function. The Pareto law has been used and the probabilities of various expected earthquakes were computed. A mathematical expression giving the quantiles was established. The extreme values limiting law confirmed the accuracy of the adjustment method. Using the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was made to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes. The seismic structure has been characterized by the slope of the recurrence plot γ, fractal dimension D, concentration parameter Ksr, Hurst exponents Hr and Ht. The values of D, γ, Ksr, Hr, and Ht diminished many months before the principal seismic shock (M = 6.9) of the studied seismoactive zone has occurred. Three stages of the deformation of the geophysical medium are manifested in the variation of the coefficient G% of the clustering of minor seismic events.  相似文献   

8.
The structure and dynamics of the ionosphere and plasmasphere at low solar activity under quiet geomagnetic conditions on January 15–17, 1985, and July 10–13, 1986, over Millstone Hill station and Argentine Islands ionosonde, the locations of which are approximately magnetically conjugate, have been theoretically calculated. The detected correction of the model input parameters makes it possible to coordinate the measured and calculated anomalous variations in the electron density NmF2 at the height hmF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer over Argentine Islands ionosonde as well as the calculated and measured values of NmF2 and electron temperature at the hmF2 height over Millstone Hill station. It has been shown that vibrationally excited N2 and O2 molecules almost do not influence the formation of the winter anomaly under the conditions of low solar activity. A difference between the influence of electronically excited O+ on N e ions under winter and summer conditions forms not more than 11% of the N e winter anomaly event in the F 2 layer and topside ionosphere. The model without electronically excited O+ ions reduces the duration of the N e winter anomaly event. It has been shown that the seasonal variations in the composition of the neutral atmosphere form mainly the NmF2 winter anomaly event over the Millstone Hill radar at low solar activity.  相似文献   

9.
Applying segment-wise altimetry-based gravest empirical mode method to expendable bathythermograph temperature, Argo salinity, and altimetric sea surface height data in March, June, and November from San Francisco to near Japan (30° N, 145° E) via Honolulu, we estimated the component of the heat transport variation caused by change in the southward interior geostrophic flow of the North Pacific subtropical gyre in the top 700 m layer during 1993–2012. The volume transport-weighted temperature (TI) is strongly dependent on the season. The anomaly of TI from the mean seasonal variation, whose standard deviation is 0.14°C, was revealed to be caused mainly by change in the volume transport in a potential density layer of 25.0?25.5σ??. The anomaly of TI was observed to vary on a decadal or shorter, i.e., quasi-decadal (QD), timescale. The QD-scale variation of TI had peaks in 1998 and 2007, equivalent to the reduction in the net heat transport by 6 and 10 TW, respectively, approximately 1 year before those of sea surface temperature (SST) in the warm pool region, east of the Philippines. This suggests that variation in TI affects the warm pool SST through modification of the heat balance owing to the entrainment of southward transported water into the mixed layer.  相似文献   

10.
Many studies on global climate have forecast major changes in the amounts and spatial patterns of precipitation that may significantly affect temperate grasslands in arid and semi-arid regions. As a part of ChinaFLUX, eddy covariance flux measurements were made at a semi-arid Leymus chinensis steppe in Inner Mongolia, China during 2003–2004 to quantify the response of carbon exchange to environmental changes. Results showed that gross ecosystem production (F GEP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco) of the steppe were significantly depressed by water stress due to lack of precipitation during the growing season. Temperature was the dominant factor affecting F GEP and R eco in 2003, whereas soil moisture imposed a significant influence on both R eco and F GEP in 2004. Under wet conditions, R eco showed an exponentially increasing trend with temperature (Q 10 = 2.0), but an apparent reduction in the value of R eco and its temperature sensitivity were observed during the periods of water stress (Q 10=1.6). Both heat and water stress can cause decrease in F GEP. The seasonality of ecosystem carbon exchange was strongly correlated with the variation of precipitation. With less precipitation in 2003, the steppe sequestrated carbon in June and July, and went into a senescence in early August due to water stress. As compared to 2003, the severe drought during the spring of 2004 delayed the growth of the steppe until late June, and the steppe became a CO2 sink from early July until mid-September, with ample precipitation in August. The semi-arid steppe released a total of 9.7 g C·m?2 from May 16 to the end of September 2003, whereas the net carbon budget during the same period in 2004 was close to zero. Long-term measurements over various grasslands are needed to quantify carbon balance in temperate grasslands.  相似文献   

11.
Using model simulations, the morphological picture (revealed earlier) of the disturbances in the F 2 region of the equatorial ionosphere under quiet geomagnetic conditions (Q-disturbances) is interpreted. It is shown that the observed variations in the velocity of the vertical E × B plasma drift, related to the zonal E y component of the electric field, are responsible for the formation of Q-disturbances. The plasma recombination at altitudes of the lower part of the F 2 region and the dependence of the rate of this process on heliogeophysical conditions compose the mechanism of Q-disturbance formation at night. The daytime positive Q-disturbances are caused exclusively by a decrease in the upward E × B drift, and this type of disturbances could be related to the known phenomenon of counter electrojet. Possible causes of formation of the daytime negative Q-disturbances are discussed.  相似文献   

12.
The Dinghushan flux observation site, as one of the four forest sites of ChinaFLUX, aims to acquire long-term measurements of CO2 flux over a typical southern subtropical evergreen coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest ecosystem using the open path eddy covariance method. Based on two years of data from 2003 to 2004, the characteristics of temporal variation in CO2 flux and its response to environmental factors in the forest ecosystem are analyzed. Provided two-dimensional coordinate rotation, WPL correction and quality control, poor energy-balance and underestimation of ecosystem respiration during nighttime implied that there could be a CO2 leak during the nighttime at the site. Using daytime (PAR > 1.0 μmol?1·m?2·s?1) flux data during windy conditions (u* > 0.2 m·s?1), monthly ecosystem respiration (Reco) was derived through the Michaelis-Menten equation modeling the relationship between net ecosystem C02 exchange (NEE) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Exponential function was employed to describe the relationship between Reco and soil temperature at 5 cm depth (Ts05), then Reco of both daytime and nighttime was calculated respectively by the function. The major results are: (i) Derived from the Michaelis-Menten equation, the apparent quantum yield (α) was 0.0027±0.0011 mgCO2·μmol?1 photons, and the maximum photosynthetic assimilation rate (Amax) was 1.102±0.288 mgCO2·m?2·s?1. Indistinctive seasonal variation of α or Amax was consistent with weak seasonal dynamics of leaf area index (LAf) in such a lower subtropical evergreen mixed forest, (ii) Monthly accumulated Reco was estimated as 95.3±21.1 gC·m?2mon?1, accounting for about 68% of the gross primary product (GPP). Monthly accumulated WEE was estimated as ?43.2±29.6 gC·m?2·mon?1. The forest ecosystem acted as carbon sink all year round without any seasonal carbon efflux period. Annual NEE of 2003 and 2004 was estimated as ?563.0 and ?441.2 gC·m?2·a?1 respectively, accounting for about 32% of GPP.  相似文献   

13.
Non-dispersive infrared(NDIR) and cavity ring-down spectroscopy(CRDS) CO_2 analyzers use 12CO_2 isotopologue absorption lines and are insensitive to all or part of other CO_2-related isotopologues. This may produce biases in CO_2 mole fraction measurements of a sample if its carbon isotopic composition deviates from that of the standard gases being used. To evaluate and compare the effects of carbon isotopic composition on NDIR and CRDS CO_2 analyzers, we prepared three test sample air cylinders with varying carbon isotopic abundances and calibrated them against five standard cylinders with ambient carbon isotopic composition using CRDS and NDIR systems. We found that the CO_2 mole fractions of the sample cylinders measured by G1301(CRDS) were in good agreement with those measured by Lo Flo(NDIR). The CO_2 values measured by both instruments were higher than that of a CO_2 isotope measured by G2201i(CRDS) analyzer for a test cylinder with depleted carbon isotopic composition δ~(13)C =-36.828‰, whereas no obvious difference was found for other two test cylinders with δ~(13)C=-8.630‰ and δ~(13)C=-15.380‰, respectively. According to the theoretical and experimental results, we concluded that the total CO_2 mole fractions of samples with depleted isotopic compositions can be corrected on the basis of their 12CO_2 values calibrated by standard gases using Lo Flo and G1301 if the δ~(13)C and δ18O values are known.  相似文献   

14.
The thermal structure of continental lithosphere (the temperature, heat flows, and heat generation in the crust and lithosphere) is reconstructed from geothermal, seismic, and petrologic data. The first step is the determination of the temperature profile from absolute P and S wave velocities (T P, S ). The T P, S profile is then adjusted to a thermophysical model of conductive transfer. In addition, the surface heat flow and the T P, S profile are used to determine heat generation, thicknesses of crustal layers, and heat flow components in the crust and lithosphere. A feature inherent in the solution of the thermophysical inverse problem obtained in this paper is the use of constraints derived from the temperature reconstruction by seismic data inversion. As a result, the analytical dependence of the temperature on depth, the intensity of radiogenic heat sources in the crust, and heat flow components in the crust and lithosphere are determined.  相似文献   

15.
Long-term measurement of carbon metabolism of old-growth forests is critical to predict their behaviors and to reduce the uncertainties of carbon accounting under changing climate. Eddy covariance technology was applied to investigate the long-term carbon exchange over a 200 year-old Chinese broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest in the Changbai Mountains (128°28′E and 42°24′N, Jilin Province, P. R. China) since August 2002. On the data obtained with open-path eddy covariance system and CO2 profile measurement system from Jan. 2003 to Dec. 2004, this paper reports (i) annual and seasonal variation of F NEE, F GPP and R E; (ii) regulation of environmental factors on phase and amplitude of ecosystem CO2 uptake and release Corrections due to storage and friction velocity were applied to the eddy carbon flux.LAI and soil temperature determined the seasonal and annual dynamics of FGPP and RE separately. VPD and air temperature regulated ecosystem photosynthesis at finer scales in growing seasons. Water condition at the root zone exerted a significant influence on ecosystem maintenance carbon metabolism of this forest in winter.The forest was a net sink of atmospheric CO2 and sequestered ?449 g C·m?2 during the study period; ?278 and ?171 gC·m?2 for 2003 and 2004 respectively. F GPP and F RE over 2003 and 2004 were ?1332, ?1294 g C·m?2. and 1054, 1124 g C·m?2 respectively. This study shows that old-growth forest can be a strong net carbon sink of atmospheric CO2.There was significant seasonal and annual variation in carbon metabolism. In winter, there was weak photosynthesis while the ecosystem emitted CO2. Carbon exchanges were active in spring and fall but contributed little to carbon sequestration on an annual scale. The summer is the most significant season as far as ecosystem carbon balance is concerned. The 90 days of summer contributed 66.9, 68.9% of F GPP, and 60.4, 62.1% of R E of the entire year.  相似文献   

16.
The variations in the density of the ionospheric F2 layer maximum (NmF2) under the action of the zonal plasma drift perpendicularly to the magnetic (B) and electric (E) fields in the direction geomagnetic west-geomagnetic east have been studied using the three-dimensional nonstationary theoretical model of electron and ion densities (N e and N i ) and temperatures (T e and T i ) in the low-latitude and midlatitude ionospheric F region and plasmasphere. The method of numerical calculations of N e , N i , T e , and T i , including the advantages of the Lagrangian and Eulerian methods, is used in the model. A dipole approximation of the geomagnetic field (B), taking into account the non-coincidence of the geographic and geomagnetic poles and differences between the positions of the Earth’s and geomagnetic dipole centers, is accepted in the calculations. The calculated NmF2 and altitudes of the F2 layer maximum (hmF2) have been compared with these quantities measured at 16 low-latitude ionospheric sounding stations during the geomagnetically quiet period October 11–12, 1958. This comparison made it possible to correct the input model parameters: the NRLMSISE-00 model [O], the meridional component of the neutral wind velocity according to the HWW90 model, and the meridional component of the equatorial plasma drift due to the electric field specified by the empirical model. It has been indicated that the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 can be neglected under daytime conditions and changes in NmF2 and hmF2 under the action of this drift are insignificant under nighttime conditions north of 25° and south of ?26° geomagnetic latitude. The effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 is most substantial in the nightside ionosphere approximately from ?20° to 20° geomagnetic latitude, and the neglect of this drift results in an up to 2.4-fold underestimation of NmF2. The found dependence of the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 on geomagnetic latitude is related to the longitudinal asymmetry of B, asymmetry of the neutral wind about the geomagnetic equator, and changes in the meridional E × B plasma drift at a change in geomagnetic longitude.  相似文献   

17.
The study of rock samples from the Upper Permian Khei-Yaga River section revealed an r-n-r-n-r magnetic polarity succession based on the prefolding characteristic component of natural remanent magnetization. With account for stratigraphic and previous magnetostratigraphic data on Lower Triassic rocks from the Khei-Yaga River section, the examined strata of the Pechora Group (Silova Formation) may be compared with magnetic zones R1P2u and N1P3t in the magnetostratigraphic scale of European Russia. The gap in the paleomagnetic record, which corresponds in the examined section to the interval of the mid-Severodvinian Stage to basal Induan Stage, Zone N1T included, is estimated to be 10 Ma long. It is assumed that this hiatus represents one of the local signs of the global Permian-Triassic crisis.  相似文献   

18.
A recently proposed model of foam impact on the air–sea drag coefficient C d has been employed for the estimation of the effective foam-bubble radius R b variation with wind speed U10 in hurricane conditions. The model relates C d (U10) with the effective roughness length Z eff (U10) represented as a sum of aerodynamic roughness lengths of the foam-free and foam-covered sea surfaces Z w (U10) and Z f (U10) weighted with the foam coverage coefficient α f (U10). This relation is treated for known phenomenological distributions C d (U10), Z w (U10), and α f (U10) at strong wind speeds as an inverse problem for the effective roughness parameter of foam-covered sea surface Z f (U10). The present study is aimed at the estimation of the effective roughness of the sea surface assuming that the measurement data for the effective drag coefficient are known. The effective foam-bubble size is found as a function of the wind speed.  相似文献   

19.
The problem of estimating the time derivatives of the horizontal components of the geomagnetic field and forecasting the probability of the occurrence of perturbations that exceed a given threshold level (the over-threshold perturbations) arises in the applications concerned with the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). In this work, we consider the temporal and spatial structure of the Pi3 pulsations with quasi-periods of 102 to 103 s during which the auroral and subauroral stations of the IMAGE network record over-threshold values in the derivatives of the meridional (along the longitudinal circle) BX component and latitudinal (along the latitudinal circle) BY component. The extreme |dBX/dt| values mainly develop against the background of the Pi3 pulsations with a complex frequency content, whereas the extreme |dBY/dt| values appear when the buildup (decay) phases of the bay-like disturbance associated with the evolution of a substorm coincide with the respective phases of the field of pulsations. The conditions under which the derivatives |dBX/dt| and |dBY/dt| reach their over-threshold values are studied for subauroral latitudes by the technique of superposed epoch analysis. The extreme values of the derivatives most frequently occur during the main phase of moderate magnetic storms or beyond the storm—during high substorm activity under the conditions of a negative vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The probability of the occurrence of over-threshold values increases at high amplitudes of the Pi3 pulsations and depends on their spectral content. The problem of analyzing and forecasting the over-threshold |dBY/dt| perturbations is complicated by the fact that the scale of the perturbations is small along the lines of latitude and large along the meridians. This can result in GIC excitation in the North–South oriented electric power lines by the geomagnetic perturbations localized within a narrow band in longitude which can be missed during the measurements.  相似文献   

20.
The time variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value are minutely studied based on the data of highly accurate seismological observations at the Garm prognostic site, Tajikistan, where a stationary network of seismic stations of the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth (IPE) of the USSR (Russian) Academy of Sciences was in operation from 1955 to 1992. A total of 93035 local earthquakes ranging from 0.0 to 6.3 in the Ml magnitudes are considered. The spatiotemporal fluctuations in the minimal magnitude of completeness of the earthquakes, Mc, are analyzed. The study considers a 25-year interval of the observations at the center of the observation system within which Mc = 0.9. It is shown that in most cases, the b-value and log10E2/3 experience characteristic time variations before the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than the minimal magnitude of the predicted earthquake (MPE). The 6-year anomaly in the parameters’ b-value, log10E2/3, and log10N associated with the single strongest earthquake with M = 6.3 that occurred in the observation region on October 26, 1984 is revealed. The inversely proportional relationship is established between the time variations in the b-value and the time variations in the velocities of seismic waves Vp and Vp/Vs. It is shown that the exponent p in the power function which links the time variations of the b-value and log10E2/3 is higher in the zones of crustal compression than in the zones of extension. It is simultaneously confirmed that the average b-value in the zones of compression is lower than in the zones of extension. It is established that in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 2.6, the time series of seismic activity log10Ni and the time series of the b-value are highly cross correlated with a coefficient of r ≈ 0.75, whereas in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 0.9, the coefficient of cross correlation between these time series is close to zero (r ≈ 0.06). The law of variations in the slope of the lines approximating the relationship between the log10Ni time series in the different magnitude ranges (M ≥ Mci) and b-value time series is obtained. It is hypothesized that the seismic activity of the earthquakes with high magnitudes can be estimated provided that the parameters of the time series of the b-value and time series of the number of earthquakes logN(ΔMi) in the range of low magnitudes are known. It is concluded that using the parameter log10N for prognostic estimates of the strong earthquakes only makes sense for earthquakes having moderate and large magnitudes. It is inferred that the time variations in the b-value are predominantly contributed by the time variations of the earthquakes with relatively large magnitudes.  相似文献   

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