共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Stephen H. Schneider 《Climatic change》1993,23(1):vi-vii
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
2.
Stephen H. Schneider 《Climatic change》1991,19(4):v-vi
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
3.
Stephen H. Schneider 《Climatic change》1988,12(3):215-219
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
4.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
5.
Do biophysics and physiology matter in ecosystem models? 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Gordon B. Bonan 《Climatic change》1993,24(4):281-285
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
6.
John Firor 《Climatic change》1988,12(2):103-105
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
7.
This paper investigates the interannual variation of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH)
intensity based on the data compiled by the Chinese National Climate Center. Monthly reanalysis data
from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCEP/NCAR) are also used to study the lead-lag relationship between WPSH intensity and surface heat
flux anomalies. The three major findings are as follows: First, WPSH intensity presents good seasonal
persistence, especially from winter to the ensuing summer. Persistence is more significant after 1977,
especially from spring to summer, and from summer to autumn; persistence of anticyclonic anomalies are
significantly better than cyclonic anomalies. Second, surface heat flux tends to present opposite anomalous
patterns between the strong and weak years of the WPSH intensity, which is especially valid at the latent
heat flux over the ocean. Simultaneous correlations between surface heat flux and WPSH intensity in each
of the seasons are marked by similar key areas. Finally, surface heat flux from the preceding winter of a
strong summer WPSH is quite similar to strong spring WPSH, but the positive anomalies over the
northwest Pacific and south of Japan are notably stronger. The situations in the weak years are similar
except for those over the northwest Pacific: winter surface heat flux shows negative anomalies for a weak
spring WPSH, but positive anomalies for a weak summer WPSH. It is suggested that surface heat flux in
the previous winter plays an important role in maintaining the WPSH intensity in the ensuing spring and
summer. 相似文献
8.
The National Defense University's study of climate change to the year 2000 was based largely on the judgments of the members of two expert panels. Although the study has been widely distributed and apparently read by policy makers in the U.S. and abroad, the method of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment has not been critically reviewed. This paper uses the literature on judgment and subjective probability to evaluate the expert judgment methods used in the study.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
9.
南海地区大气30～60天低频振荡及其对南海夏季风的可能影响 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
本文利用1979～2008 年美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)和美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)第二套再分析资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的向外长波辐射(OLR)资料及1979～2007年全球降水资料(CMAP), 分析了南海地区热带大气的低频振荡及其对南海夏季风的可能影响。结果表明, 夏半年南海地区存在显著的30～60天的周期振荡。当30～60天低频振荡处于活跃位相时, 南海及其周围地区的低层大气为低频西南风, 南海和菲律宾北部为低频气旋流场且为正的位涡度, 对应着增强的南海夏季风槽和南海夏季风; 当 30～60天低频振荡处于不活跃位相时, 情形正好相反。进一步的研究揭示出, 夏半年30～60天低频振荡变化的空间型与夏半年平均场的年际变化的空间分布非常相似, 并且南海及其附近地区的 30～60天低频振荡活动的年际变化对夏半年平均场的年际变化有显著的贡献。强、弱南海夏季风年30～60天低频振荡活动的比较也说明, 强的南海夏季风年30～60天低频振荡活跃状态发生的概率大于不活跃状态发生的概率, 而弱的南海夏季风年则是不活跃状态发生的概率大于活跃状态发生的概率。因此, 南海地区30～60天低频振荡对南海夏季风很可能有重要影响, 当30～60天低频振荡的活跃状态处于主导时, 南海夏季风往往会偏强; 反之, 如果不活跃状态处于主导时, 南海夏季风往往会偏弱。 相似文献
10.
The Kansas and Minnesota experiments 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Two experiments conducted almost 20 years ago have come to be regarded as important milestones in boundary-layer research. This paper recounts the motivation for those experiments, describes how they were conducted, and summarizes their results.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
11.
Analogue-Dynamical Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation in Northeast China Based on Dynamic and Optimal Configuration of Multiple Predictors 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Supported by the Special Public Welfare Research Fund for Meteorological of Profession China Meteorological Administration
(GYHY200806005), National Natural Science Foundation of China (40875040 and 40930952), and National Science and Technology
Support Program of China (2007BAC29B01 and 2009BAC51B04). 相似文献
12.
13.
Francisco Estrada Benjamín Martínez-López Cecilia Conde Carlos Gay-García 《Climatic change》2012,110(3-4):1029-1046
This paper presents a review of the methodology applied for generating the regional climate change scenarios utilized in important National Documents of Mexico, such as the Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Fourth National Report to the Convention on Biological Diversity and The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico. It is shown that these regional climate change scenarios, which are one of the main inputs to support the assessments presented in these documents, are an example of the erroneous use of statistical downscaling techniques. The arguments presented here imply that the work based on such scenarios should be revised and therefore, these documents are inadequate for supporting national decision- making. 相似文献
14.
近千年全球温度变化研究的新进展 总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16
结合国内外有关研究,综合评述了美国国家科学院国家研究理事会的报告 --"近两千年地面温度的重建"。重点介绍了气候变暖的新证据,3个特征时期即20世纪气候变暖、小冰期（LIA）、中世纪暖期（MWP）和近千年温度变化模拟的结果。 相似文献
15.
Ronald L. Gilliland 《Climatic change》1982,4(2):111-131
The climate, as represented by the mean Northern Hemisphere temperature, has shown substantial changes within the past century.
The temperature record is utilized as a means of elucidating the relative importance of anthropogenic CO2 increase, volcanic aerosols, and possible solar insolation variations in externally forcing climate changes. Solar luminosity
variations, suggested by observed solar radius variations on an ≈ 80 yr time scale, allow a self-consistent explanation of
the hemispheric temperature trends. Evidence for solar influences on the climate is also found on the shorter 11 and 22 yr
time scales present in solar activity cycles.
The author is a staff scientist at the High Altitude Observatory, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, of the National Center
for Atmospheric Research.
This work was completed while the author was a postdoctoral fellow in the Advanced Study Program of NCAR.
Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
16.
Chemical sensor resolution required for measuring surface fluxes by three common micrometeorological techniques 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We define the chemical or compositional resolution required to measure the surface emission/deposition flux of trace constituents under different meteorological conditions by means of the eddy correlation, gradient, and conditional sampling techniques. These chemical resolutions are defined for the full range of different atmospheric conditions and are reported in terms of commonly measured micrometeorological parameters.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation 相似文献
17.
云南夏季降水量在21世纪初的突变减少及原因分析 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
利用1960—2013年云南125个台站观测资料和美国环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心再分析资料,以及1960—2013年美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)提供的逐月平均全球海表温度资料,分析了云南地区降水量变化的特征以及与之相关联的大气环流背景场。分析结果表明:云南降水量在2002年发生了一次显著减少的突变,而这次突变主要是由于夏季降水的明显减少而形成的。进一步的分析揭示了该地区夏季降水减少主要与印度洋热带赤道地区低层东风加强和高空西风加强有关,亚洲地区中高纬度温度的升高也对该地区夏季降水量显著减少有重要作用。 相似文献
18.
Under the assumption of a geostrophic wind varying exponentially with height, profiles of four turbulence characteristics (Reynolds stress, eddy diffusivity, momentum mixing length, and energy dissipation rate) are evaluated for three cases of quasi-steady wind profile observations under near-neutral boundary layer conditions. These cases occurred during the Wangara Experiment organized by CSIRO at Hay, N.S.W., Australia, in 1967. It is shown that mean vertical motion and surface friction velocity significantly influence the evaluated profiles of the turbulence characteristics.This study was done while Zhang visited the Department of Meteorology, University of Wisconsin, from the Department of Meteorology, Nanjing University, China, and was completed when Zhang was affiliated with the National Center for Atmospheric Research.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
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20.
东亚季风环流演变的主要模态及其与中国东部降水异常的联系 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用美国国家环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析环流资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)重构的海温资料和中国国家气象信息中心(NMIC)整理的752个测站降水资料,对东亚地区季风环流季节演变主要模态及其与中国东部降水异常的关系进行了分析。结果表明,东亚地区850hPa季风环流季节演变存在两个主要模态,第一模态主要受热带印度洋海温和赤道东太平洋海温偏低背景下印度洋偶极(IOD)演变过程控制;第二模态主要受赤道东太平洋ENSO循环和IOD演变控制。对应第一模态,夏季华北多雨,长江流域少雨;对应第二模态,夏季华北、长江流域多雨,淮河、华南少雨。近50年两模态发生了明显改变,与降水变化有很好的对应关系。 相似文献