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1.
The dominant role of clouds in modulating and interacting with radiative energy transports within the atmosphere, in providing precipitation, transporting water and influencing air-chemical processes is still not understood well enough to be accurately represented within atmospheric circulation and climate models over all regions of the globe. Also the extraction of real-world cloud properties from satellite measurements still contains uncertainties. Therefore, various projects have been developed within the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), to achieve more accurate solutions for this problem by direct measurements within cloud fields and other complementary studies. They are based on the hypothesis, that most relevant properties of cloud fields can be parametrized on the basis of the prognostic field variables of atmospheric circulation models, and that the cloud microphysical properties can directly be related – with additional parameters on the particle shapes etc. – to the radiative transfer properties.One of these projects has been the European Cloud and Radiation Experiment (EUCREX) with its predecessor ICE (International Cirrus Experiment).The EUCREX and ICE provided a common platform for research groups from France, Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom to concentrate their efforts primarily on high, cold cirrus. They showed, with data from satellites, that this cloud species enhances the atmospheric greenhouse-effect. Numerical mesoscale models were used in sensitivity studies on cloud developments. In-situ measurements of cloud properties were made during more than 30 aircraft missions, where also in-flight comparisons of various instruments were made to ensure the quality of data sets measured from different aircraft. The particle sampling probes, used for in-cloud measurements, showed a disagreement in total number density in all ranges between about 20–50%, while all other instruments agreed quite satisfactorily. A few measured holographic data provided information on typical ice-crystal shapes, which were used in numerical simulations of their absorption and scattering properties.Several new instruments for both in-situ and remote measurement, such as a polar nephelometer, a chopped pyrgeometer and an imaging multispectral polarimeter (POLDER) for cloud and radiation measurements were tested and improved. New algorithms were developed for cloud classifications in multispectral satellite images and also for simulations of the scattering of radiation by non-spherical particles.This paper primarily summarizes the EUCREX results obtained between 1989 and 1996, and provides examples of the many results which have been obtained so far. It is not a complete review of the world-wide state in this field, but it tries to place the EUCREX results into the world-wide development. Therefore many references are made to the results of other groups, which in turn influenced the work within EUCREX.  相似文献   

2.
An atmosphere–ocean climate box model is used to examine the influence of cloud feedback on the equilibria of the climate system. The model consists of three non-linear ordinary differential equations, which are simplified forms of the first law of thermodynamics for the atmosphere and ocean and the continuity equation for the atmospheric component of the hydrological cycle. The mass continuity equation expresses the cloud liquid water content as a function of the evaporation rate from the ocean surface and the precipitation rate. Cloud formation releases latent heat. The model clouds also absorb solar energy at a rate consistent with recent findings. The model simulates snow–ice albedo feedback, water vapour feedback and cloud feedback. The global mean precipitation and surface temperature are analysed as they respond to enhanced greenhouse warming. Model results show that cloud feedback can lead to the occurrence of multiple climate equilibria. Some of these are warmer than the present equilibrium, with increased precipitation, while others are colder, with reduced precipitation. If the cloud feedback is weak, enhanced greenhouse forcing leads to a small alteration of the present equilibrium. If the cloud feedback is strong enough, the climate system can be forced into a warmer and wetter equilibrium.  相似文献   

3.
Challenges and Opportunities in Water Cycle Research: WCRP Contributions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
The state of knowledge and outstanding challenges and opportunities in global water cycle observations, research and modeling are briefly reviewed to set the stage for the reasons behind the new thrusts promoted by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as Grand Challenges to be addressed on a 5- to 10-year time frame. Those focused on water are led by the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) project. A number of GEWEX science questions are being brought forward within GEWEX and the WCRP under guidance of the Joint Scientific Committee. Here, we describe what are some imperatives and opportunities for major advancements in observations, understanding, modeling and product development for water resources and climate that will enable a wide range of climate services and inform decisions on water resources management and practices.  相似文献   

4.
Calibration and validation of hydrological models is a challenge, particularly in remote regions that are minimally gauged. This paper develops a novel methodology for large‐scale (>1000 km2) hydrological model calibration and validation using stable water isotopes founded on the rigorous constraints imposed by the need to conserve both water mass and stable isotopes simultaneously. The isoWATFLOOD model is applied to five basins within the Fort Simpson, Northwest Territories region of northern Canada to simulate stream discharge and oxygen‐18 signals over a 3‐year period. The isotopic variation of river discharge, runoff components, and evaporative fractionation are successfully simulated on both a seasonal and continual basis over the watershed domain to demonstrate the application of isotope tracers to regional hydrologic calibration. The intended application of this research is to remote, large‐scale basins, showing promise for improving predictions in minimally gauged basins and climate change research where traditional, rigorous approaches to constraining parameter uncertainty may be impractical. This coupled isotope‐hydrological (i.e. iso‐hydrological) approach to modelling reduces the number of possible parameterizations, resulting in potentially more physically‐based hydrological predictions. isoWATFLOOD provides a tool for water resource managers and utilities to use operationally for water use, allocation, and runoff generation estimations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
The hydrological sensitivities to long-term climate change of a watershed in Eastern Canada were analysed using a deterministic watershed runoff model developed to simulate watershed acidification. This model was modified to study atmospheric change effects in the watershed. Water balance modelling techniques, modified for assessing climate effects, were developed and tested for a watershed using atmospheric change scenarios from both state of the art general circulation models and a series of hypothetical scenarios. The model computed daily surface, inter- and groundwater flows from the watershed. The moisture, infiltration and recharge rate are also computed in the soil reservoirs. The thirty years of simulated data can be used to evaluate the effects of climatic change on soil moisture, recharge rate and surface and subsurface flow systems. The interaction between surface and subsurface water is discussed in relation to climate change. These hydrological results raise the possibility of major environmental and socioeconomic difficulties and have significant implications for future water resource planning and management. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
In the context of climate change and variability, there is considerable interest in how large scale climate indicators influence regional precipitation occurrence and its seasonality. Seasonal and longer climate projections from coupled ocean–atmosphere models need to be downscaled to regional levels for hydrologic applications, and the identification of appropriate state variables from such models that can best inform this process is also of direct interest. Here, a Non‐Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) for downscaling daily rainfall is developed for the Agro‐Pontino Plain, a coastal reclamation region very vulnerable to changes of hydrological cycle. The NHMM, through a set of atmospheric predictors, provides the link between large scale meteorological features and local rainfall patterns. Atmospheric data from the NCEP/NCAR archive and 56‐years record (1951–2004) of daily rainfall measurements from 7 stations in Agro‐Pontino Plain are analyzed. A number of validation tests are carried out, in order to: 1) identify the best set of atmospheric predictors to model local rainfall; 2) evaluate the model performance to capture realistically relevant rainfall attributes as the inter‐annual and seasonal variability, as well as average and extreme rainfall patterns. Validation tests show that the best set of atmospheric predictors are the following: mean sea level pressure, temperature at 1000 hPa, meridional and zonal wind at 850 hPa and precipitable water, from 20°N to 80°N of latitude and from 80°W to 60°E of longitude. Furthermore, the validation tests show that the rainfall attributes are simulated realistically and accurately. The capability of the NHMM to be used as a forecasting tool to quantify changes of rainfall patterns forced by alteration of atmospheric circulation under climate change and variability scenarios is discussed.  相似文献   

7.
During the next decade and beyond, climate system models will be challenged to resolve scales and processes that are far beyond their current scope. Each climate system component has its prototypical example of an unresolved process that may strongly influence the global climate system, ranging from eddy activity within ocean models, to ice streams within ice sheet models, to surface hydrological processes within land system models, to cloud processes within atmosphere models. These new demands will almost certainly result in the develop of multiresolution schemes that are able, at least regionally, to faithfully simulate these fine-scale processes. Spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations (SCVTs) offer one potential path toward the development of a robust, multiresolution climate system model components. SCVTs allow for the generation of high-quality Voronoi diagrams and Delaunay triangulations through the use of an intuitive, user-defined density function. In each of the examples provided, this method results in high-quality meshes where the quality measures are guaranteed to improve as the number of nodes is increased. Real-world examples are developed for the Greenland ice sheet and the North Atlantic ocean. Idealized examples are developed for ocean–ice shelf interaction and for regional atmospheric modeling. In addition to defining, developing, and exhibiting SCVTs, we pair this mesh generation technique with a previously developed finite-volume method. Our numerical example is based on the nonlinear, shallow-water equations spanning the entire surface of the sphere. This example is used to elucidate both the po tential benefits of this multiresolution method and the challenges ahead.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

Global climate change can be reproduced in detail by using three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs). However, such complex models require super-computers and extensive hours of computational time for a single attempt at reproducing long term climate change. An alternative approach is to make simplifying assumptions that retain the essential physics for the desired simulation. Energy balance and Radiative-convective models are examples of such models. The model in this study follows the simplified approach using physics-based climate processes as well as interactions between atmospheric and hydrological processes. The vertically and latitudinally averaged mean temperature and mean water vapour content between 30°N-50°N latitudes are considered as atmospheric state variables while soil and sea temperatures and water storage amount are considered for describing the behaviour of the hydrological system. Temperatures in both the atmosphere and ground are calculated by a thermal energy equation that considers the physically-based processes of shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux. Precipitation and evaporation processes transport moisture between the atmosphere and ground. In this study, the radiation parameterization of the simplified climate model is tested in the investigation of the various effects of global warming due to doubling and quadrupling of CO2. Changes of temperature, soil water content, evaporation rate and precipitation rate are investigated by numerical experiments. The simplified climate model provides acceptable simulation of climate change and holds promise for practical investigations such as the interactions of physical processes in the evolution of drought phenomena.  相似文献   

9.
Particular attention is given to the reliability of hydrological modelling results. The accuracy of river runoff projection depends on the selected set of hydrological model parameters, emission scenario and global climate model. The aim of this article is to estimate the uncertainty of hydrological model parameters, to perform sensitivity analysis of the runoff projections, as well as the contribution analysis of uncertainty sources (model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models) in forecasting Lithuanian river runoff. The impact of model parameters on the runoff modelling results was estimated using a sensitivity analysis for the selected hydrological periods (spring flood, winter and autumn flash floods, and low water). During spring flood the results of runoff modelling depended on the calibration parameters that describe snowmelt and soil moisture storage, while during the low water period—the parameter that determines river underground feeding was the most important. The estimation of climate change impact on hydrological processes in the Merkys and Neris river basins was accomplished through the combination of results from A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios and global climate models (ECHAM5 and HadCM3). The runoff projections of the thirty-year periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) were conducted applying the HBV software. The uncertainties introduced by hydrological model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models were presented according to the magnitude of the expected changes in Lithuanian rivers runoff. The emission scenarios had much greater influence on the runoff projection than the global climate models. The hydrological model parameters had less impact on the reliability of the modelling results.  相似文献   

10.
Letu  Husi  Shi  Jiancheng  Li  Ming  Wang  Tianxing  Shang  Huazhe  Lei  Yonghui  Ji  Dabin  Wen  Jianguang  Yang  Kun  Chen  Liangfu 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2020,63(6):774-789
The estimation of downward surface shortwave radiation(DSSR) is important for the Earth's energy budget and climate change studies. This review was organised from the perspectives of satellite sensors, algorithms and future trends,retrospects and summaries of the satellite-based retrieval methods of DSSR that have been developed over the past 10 years. The shortwave radiation reaching the Earth's surface is affected by both atmospheric and land surface parameters. In recent years,studies have given detailed considerations to the factors which affect DSSR. It is important to improve the retrieval accuracy of cloud microphysical parameters and aerosols and to reduce the uncertainties caused by complex topographies and high-albedo surfaces(such as snow-covered areas) on DSSR estimation. This review classified DSSR retrieval methods into four categories:empirical, parameterisation, look-up table and machine-learning methods, and evaluated their advantages, disadvantages and accuracy. Further efforts are needed to improve the calculation accuracy of atmospheric parameters such as cloud, haze, water vapor and other land surface parameters such as albedo of complex terrain and bright surface, organically combine machine learning and other methods, use the new-generation geostationary satellite and polar orbit satellite data to produce highresolution DSSR products, and promote the application of radiation products in hydrological and climate models.  相似文献   

11.
陈德亮  高歌 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):105-114
近几年来,国家气候中心己经建立了中国主要四大流域气候对水资源影响评估的模式框架.本文拟进一步证明其中之一的两参数分布式月水量平衡水文模式对长江之上汉江和赣江两子流域径流的模拟能力,结果表明该水文模式对目前气候条件下径流模拟效果较好,运行稳定,可用于实时业务运行.在此基础上,利用ECHAM4和HadCM2两GCM(General Circulation Model)未来气候情景模拟结果及目前实测气候情况,对汉江和赣江两子流域的径流对未来气候变化的敏感性进行评估.经检验,两GCM对未来气候,特别是降水情景模拟存在一定差异,因此,造成径流对气候变化的响应不同,这充分反映了全球模式模拟结果不确定性在气候变化影响研究中的重要性.  相似文献   

12.
The impact of continental hydrological loading from land water, snow and ice on polar motion excitation, calculated as hydrological angular momentum (HAM), is difficult to estimate, and not as much is known about it as about atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and oceanic angular momentum (OAM). In this paper, regional hydrological excitations to polar motion are investigated using monthly terrestrial water storage data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and from the five models of land hydrology. The results show that the areas where the variance shows large variability are similar for the different models of land hydrology and for the GRACE data. Areas which have a small amplitude on the maps make an important contribution to the global hydrological excitation function of polar motion. The comparison of geodetic residuals and global hydrological excitation functions of polar motion shows that none of the hydrological excitation has enough energy to significantly improve the agreement between the observed geodetic excitation and geophysical ones.  相似文献   

13.
The evaluation of climate change and its side effects on the hydrological processes of the basin can increasingly help in dealing with the challenges that water resource managers and planners face in future courses. These side effects are investigated using the simulation of hydrological processes with the help of physical rainfall‐runoff model. Hydrological models provide a framework for examining the relationship between climate and water resources. This research aims at the investigation of the effect of climate change on the runoff of Gharesou, which is one of the main branches of the “Karkheh” River in Iran during the periods 2040–2069. To achieve this, the distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) – a model that is sensitive to the changes in land, water, and climate – has been used with the aim of evaluating the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gharesou Basin. For this reason, first, the continuous distributed model of rainfall‐runoff SWAT for the period 1971–2000 has been calibrated and validated. Next, with the aim of evaluating the impact of climate change and global warming on the basin hydrology for the period 2040–2069, HadCM3‐AR4 global climate model data under the A2 scenario – from the SRES scenario set‐haves been downscaled. Eventually, the downscaled climate data haves been introduced in the SWAT model, and the future runoff changes have been studied. The results showed that the temperature increases in most of the months, and the precipitation rate exhibits a change in the range of ±30%. Moreover, the produced runoff in this period changes from ?90 to 120% during different months.  相似文献   

14.
Climate warming is having profound effects on the hydrological cycle by increasing atmospheric demand, changing water availability, and snow seasonality. Europe suffered three distinct heat waves in 2019, and 11 of the 12 hottest years ever recorded took place in the past two decades, which will potentially change seasonal streamflow patterns and long-term trends. Central Europe exhibited six dry years in a row since 2014. This study uses data from a well-documented headwater catchment in Central Europe (Lysina) to explore hydrological responses to a warming climate. We applied a lumped parameter hydrologic model Brook90 and a distributed model Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) to simulate long-term hydrological change under future climate scenarios. Both models performed well on historic streamflow and in agreement with each other according to the catchment water budget. In addition, PIHM was able to simulate lateral groundwater redistribution within the catchment validated by the groundwater table dynamics. The long-term trends in runoff and low flow were captured by PIHM only. We applied different EURO-CORDEX models with two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5, 8.5) and found significant impacts on runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) for the period of 2071–2100. Results from both models suggested reduced runoff and increased ET, while the monthly distribution of runoff was different. We used this catchment study to understand the importance of subsurface processes in projection of hydrologic response to a warming climate.  相似文献   

15.
Natural and anthropogenic forcing factors and their changes significantly impact water resources in many river basins around the world. Information on such changes can be derived from fine scale in situ and satellite observations, used in combination with hydrological models. The latter need to account for hydrological changes caused by human activities to correctly estimate the actual water resource. In this study, we consider the catchment area of the Garonne river (in France) to investigate the capabilities of space-based observations and up-to-date hydrological modeling in estimating water resources of a river basin modified by human activities and a changing climate. Using the ISBA–MODCOU and SWAT hydrological models, we find that the water resources of the Garonne basin display a negative climate trend since 1960. The snow component of the two models is validated using the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer snow cover extent climatology. Crop sowing dates based on remote sensing studies are also considered in the validation procedure. Use of this dataset improves the simulated evapotranspiration and river discharge amounts when compared to conventional data. Finally, we investigate the benefit of using the MAELIA multi-agent model that accounts for a realistic agricultural and management scenario. Among other results, we find that changes in crop systems have significant impacts on water uptake for agriculture. This work constitutes a basis for the construction of a future modeling framework of the sociological and hydrological system of the Garonne river region.  相似文献   

16.
利用现有大气本底站的大气CO2浓度观测信息,综合考虑不同经济区划与土地覆盖类型对应的CO2浓度差异及其季节变化规律,构建模式区域内以月为单位的网格化大气CO2浓度非均匀动态分布数据模型.由此数据模型驱动RegCM4-CLM3.5区域气候模式运行,对东亚区2000年3月—2009年2月之间的气候变化特征进行了模拟,进而对大气CO2浓度非均匀动态分布可能引起的区域气候效应进行了初步研究.结果表明:目前气候模式中CO2浓度的常态均匀分布假设可能将温室效应夸大了10%左右.对大气CO2浓度非均匀动态分布影响气温变化的可能机制进行研究表明:CO2的自身效应(改变大气透射率)并不是导致Exp2试验温度降低的主要原因.大气CO2浓度的变化影响了大气与植物胞间CO2分压差,陆地植被通过改变气孔阻力适应这种变化,气孔阻力的变化直接影响到植物与大气间水分的交换,这种作用一方面通过蒸发冷却改变环境温度,另一方面,蒸发水分改变了近地面层湿度,进而水汽扩散到空中影响低云的分布.冬季,植物处于非生长季,对大气CO2浓度变化响应微弱,湿度和低云变化不明显;夏季,植物生长旺盛,由CO2生理学强迫激发的云反馈效应强烈,其效果是使中低云趋于增加,进而减弱了到达对流层低层的太阳短波辐射,造成温室效应减弱.  相似文献   

17.
This study attempts to assess the uncertainty in the hydrological impacts of climate change using a multi-model approach combining multiple emission scenarios, GCMs and conceptual rainfall-runoff models to quantify uncertainty in future impacts at the catchment scale. The uncertainties associated with hydrological models have traditionally been given less attention in impact assessments until relatively recently. In order to examine the role of hydrological model uncertainty (parameter and structural uncertainty) in climate change impact studies a multi-model approach based on the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) methods is presented. Six sets of regionalised climate scenarios derived from three GCMs, two emission scenarios, and four conceptual hydrological models were used within the GLUE framework to define the uncertainty envelop for future estimates of stream flow, while the GLUE output is also post processed using BMA, where the probability density function from each model at any given time is modelled by a gamma distribution with heteroscedastic variance. The investigation on four Irish catchments shows that the role of hydrological model uncertainty is remarkably high and should therefore be routinely considered in impact studies. Although, the GLUE and BMA approaches used here differ fundamentally in their underlying philosophy and representation of error, both methods show comparable performance in terms of ensemble spread and predictive coverage. Moreover, the median prediction for future stream flow shows progressive increases of winter discharge and progressive decreases in summer discharge over the coming century.  相似文献   

18.
The results of modeling of the annual river runoff on the East European Plain, performed with the help of atmospheric general circulation models for the conditions of the present-day climate, the Atlantic Optimum of the Holocene, and the Cryochrone of the Late Pleistocene, are analyzed. The quality of modeling the present-day climate is assessed; the spatial scales, within which the model results are appropriate for using in hydrological calculations, are determined. The genesis of variations in the river runoff on the East European Plain in the epochs of the Holocene Optimum and Late-Pleistocene Cryochrone is investigated.  相似文献   

19.
In this study we compared contributions to polar motion excitation determined separately from each of three kinds of geophysical data: atmospheric pressure, equivalent water height estimated from hydrological models, and harmonic coefficients of the Earth gravity field obtained from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Hydrological excitation function (Hydrological Angular Momentum — HAM) has been estimated from models of global hydrology, based on the observed distribution of surfacewater, snow, ice, and soil moisture. In our considerationwe used several global models of land hydrosphere and models ofAtmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) and Oceanic Angular Momentum (OAM). All of themwere compared with observed Geodetic Angular Momentum (GAM). The spectra of the following excitation functions of polar motion: GAM, AAM+OAM, AAM+OAM+HAM, GAM-AAM-OAM residual geodetic excitation function, and HAM were computed too. The time variable spectra of geodetic, gravimetric, and the sum of atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological excitation functions are also presented. Phasor diagrams of the seasonal components of polar motion excitation functions of all HAM excitation functions as well as of two GRACE solutions: Center for Space Research (CSR), Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales/Groupe de Recherche en Geodesie Spatiale (CNES/GRGS) were determined and discussed.  相似文献   

20.
ABSTRACT

Rainfall events largely control hydrological processes occurring on and in the ground, but the performance of climate models in reproducing rainfall events has not been investigated enough to guide selection among the models when making hydrological projections. We proposed to compare the durations, intensities, and pause periods, as well as depths of rainfall events when assessing the accuracy of general circulation models (GCMs) in reproducing the hydrological characteristics of observed rainfall. We also compared the sizes of design storm events and the frequency and severity of drought to demonstrate the consequences of GCM selection. The results show that rainfall and extreme hydrological event projections could significantly vary depending on climate model selection and weather stations, suggesting the need for a careful and comprehensive evaluation of GCM in the hydrological analysis of climate change. The proposed methods are expected to help to improve the accuracy of future hydrological projections for water resources planning.  相似文献   

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