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1.
We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800–1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850–1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler ‘Little Ice Age’ conditions (ca. 1350–1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.  相似文献   

2.
Eight tree-ring chronologies from coastal sites along the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) are used to develop a 227-year (1762–1988) reconstruction of spring/summer (March–September) coastal land temperatures for the region. This reconstruction explains 35% of the variance in the instrumental temperature data. The tree-ring records and reconstruction reflect the documented 1976 transition from cold to warm conditions in the North Pacific and are consistent with regional temperature compilations. Three of the eight ring-width series, from elevational timberline sites where trees are particularly stressed by temperature, extend back to A.D. 1600 and are used to identify additional occurrences of such transitions. The first principal component (PC) scores of these three longer records are positively correlated with spring (March–May) land and sea surface temperatures for the GOA region and are used to reconstruct land surface temperatures. Decadal-scale fluctuations in the reconstructions show agreement with decade-long changes in the intensity of the Aleutian Low pressure cell over the past century, suggesting that the tree-ring data may provide an index of past circulation changes for the northeast Pacific. Blackman-Tukey spectral analyses of both reconstructions indicate significant power at 7–11 years, with additional peaks at 3 years for the spring/summer reconstruction and 19 years for the longer spring temperature series. The modes of variation at about 3 and 7 years may correspond to those associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation bandwidth, whereas the 19-year term may relate to a proposed 20-year cycle of North Pacific circulation. The spring temperature series shows generally increased growth over the past century, coinciding with warmer spring temperatures in south coastal Alaska over this interval. Comparison with the entire spring series suggests that the recent warming exceeds temperature levels of prior centuries, extending back to A.D. 1600.  相似文献   

3.
A 520-year stable carbon isotope chronology from tree ring cellulose in high altitude larch trees (Larix decidua Mill.), from the eastern European Alps, correlates more strongly with summer temperature than with summer sunshine hours. However, when instrumental records of temperature and sunshine diverge after AD1980, the tree ring time series does not follow warming summer temperatures but more closely tracks summer sunshine trends. When the tree ring stable carbon isotope record is used to reconstruct summer temperature the reconstruction is not robust. Reconstructed temperatures prior to the twentieth century are higher than regional instrumental records, and the evolution of temperature conflicts with other regional temperature reconstructions. It is concluded that sunshine is the dominant control on carbon isotope fractionation in these trees, via the influence of photosynthetic rate on the internal partial pressure of CO2, and that high summer (July–August) sunshine hours is a suitable target for climate reconstruction. We thus present the first reconstruction of summer sunshine for the eastern Alps and compare it with the regional temperature evolution.  相似文献   

4.
Maximum latewood density and δ 13C discrimination of Interior Alaska white spruce were used to reconstruct summer (May through August) temperature at Fairbanks for the period 1800–1996, one of the first high-resolution reconstructions for this region. This combination of latewood density and δ 13C discrimination explains 59.9% of the variance in summer temperature during the period of record 1906–1996. The 200-yr. reconstruction is characterized by 7 decadal-scale regimes. Regime changes are indicated at 1816, 1834, 1879, 1916, 1937, and 1974, are abrupt, and appear to be the result of synoptic scale climate changes. The mean of summer temperature for the period of reconstruction (1800–1996) was 13.49 °C. During the period of instrument record (1903–1996) the mean of summer temperature was 13.31 °C for both the reconstruction and the recorded data. The coldest interval was 1916–1937 (12.62 ° C) and the warmest was 1974–1996 (14.23 °C) for the recorded data. The reconstruction differs from records of northern hemisphere temperatures over this period, especially because of Interior Alaska warm periods reconstructed from 1834 to 1851 (14.24 °C) and from 1862 to 1879 (14.19 °C) and because of the cool period in the early part of the 20th century (1917–1974). We show additional tree ring data that support our reconstruction of these warm periods. Alternate hypotheses involving autogenic effect of tree growth on the site, altered tree sensitivity, or novel combinations of temperature and precipitation were explored and while they cannot be ruled out as contributors to the anomalously warm 19th century reconstruction, they were not supported by available data. White spruce radial growth is highly correlated with reconstructed summer temperature, and temperature appears to be a reliable index of carbon uptake in this system.  相似文献   

5.
We present a significant update to a millennial summer temperature reconstruction (1073–1983) that was originally published in 1997. Utilising new tree-ring data (predominantly Picea engelmannii), the reconstruction is not only better replicated, but has been extended (950–1994) and is now more regionally representative. Calibration and verification statistics were improved, with the new model explaining 53% of May–August maximum temperature variation compared to the original (39% of April–August mean temperatures). The maximum latewood density data, which are weighted more strongly in the regression model than ringwidth, were processed using regional curve standardisation to capture potential centennial to millennial scale variability. The reconstruction shows warm intervals, comparable to twentieth century values, for the first half of the eleventh century, the late 1300s and early 1400s. The bulk of the record, however, is below the 1901–1980 normals, with prolonged cool periods from 1200 to 1350 and from 1450 to the late 19th century. The most extreme cool period is observed to be in the 1690s. These reconstructed cool periods compare well with known regional records of glacier advances between 1150 and the 1300s, possibly in the early 1500s, early 1700s and 1800s. Evidence is also presented of the influence of solar activity and volcanic events on summer temperature in the Canadian Rockies over the last 1,000 years. Although this reconstruction is regional in scope, it compares well at multi-decadal to centennial scales with Northern Hemisphere temperature proxies and at millennial scales with reconstructions that were also processed to capture longer timescale variability. This coherence suggests that this series is globally important for the assessment of natural temperature variability over the last 1,000 years.Authors are listed alphabetically  相似文献   

6.
Temperature reconstructions for recent centuries provide a historical context for the warming over the twentieth century. We reconstruct annual averaged surface temperatures of the past 400?years on hemispherical and global scale from glacier length fluctuations. We use the glacier length records of 308 glaciers. The reconstruction is a temperature proxy with decadal resolution that is completely independent of other temperature records. Temperatures are derived from glacier length changes using a linear response equation and an analytical glacier model that is calibrated on numerical model results. The global and hemispherical temperatures reconstructed from glacier length fluctuations are in good agreement with the instrumental record of the last century. Furthermore our results agree with existing multi-proxy reconstructions of temperature in the pre-instrumental period. The temperature record obtained from glacier fluctuations confirms the pronounced warming of the twentieth century, giving a global cumulative warming of 0.94?±?0.31?K over the period 1830–2000 and a cumulative warming of 0.84?±?0.35?K over the period 1600–2000.  相似文献   

7.
A 1052-year tree-ring proxy for Alpine summer temperatures   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  
A June–August Alpine temperature proxy series is developed back to AD 951 using 1,527 ring-width measurements from living trees and relict wood. The reconstruction is composed of larch data from four Alpine valleys in Switzerland and pine data from the western Austrian Alps. These regions are situated in high elevation Alpine environments where a spatially homogenous summer temperature signal exists. In an attempt to capture the full frequency range of summer temperatures over the past millennium, from inter-annual to multi-centennial scales, the regional curve standardization technique is applied to the ring width measurements. Correlations of 0.65 and 0.86 after decadal smoothing, with high elevation meteorological stations since 1864 indicate an optimal response of the RCS chronology to June–August mean temperatures. The proxy record reveals warm conditions from before AD 1000 into the thirteenth century, followed by a prolonged cool period, reaching minimum values in the 1820s, and a warming trend into the twentieth century. This latter trend and the higher frequency variations compare well with the actual high elevation temperature record. The new central Alpine proxy suggests that summer temperatures during the last decade are unprecedented over the past millennium. It also reveals significant similarities at inter-decadal to multi-centennial frequencies with large-scale temperature reconstructions, however, deviating during certain periods from H.H. Lamb‘s European/North Atlantic temperature history.  相似文献   

8.
Long-term summer temperature variations in the Pyrenees   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
Two hundred and sixty one newly measured tree-ring width and density series from living and dry-dead conifers from two timberline sites in the Spanish Pyrenees were compiled. Application of the regional curve standardization method for tree-ring detrending allowed the preservation of inter-annual to multi-centennial scale variability. The new density record correlates at 0.53 (0.68 in the higher frequency domain) with May–September maximum temperatures over the 1944–2005 period. Reconstructed warmth in the fourteenth to fifteenth and twentieth century is separated by a prolonged cooling from ∼1450 to 1850. Six of the ten warmest decades fall into the twentieth century, whereas the remaining four are reconstructed for the 1360–1440 interval. Comparison with novel density-based summer temperature reconstructions from the Swiss Alps and northern Sweden indicates decadal to longer-term similarity between the Pyrenees and Alps, but disagreement with northern Sweden. Spatial field correlations with instrumental data support the regional differentiation of the proxy records. While twentieth century warmth is evident in the Alps and Pyrenees, recent temperatures in Scandinavia are relatively cold in comparison to earlier warmth centered around medieval times, ∼1450, and the late eighteenth century. While coldest summers in the Alps and Pyrenees were in-phase with the Maunder and Dalton solar minima, lowest temperatures in Scandinavia occurred later at the onset of the twentieth century. However, fairly cold summers at the end of the fifteenth century, between ∼1600–1700, and ∼1820 were synchronized over Europe, and larger areas of the Northern Hemisphere.  相似文献   

9.
In the eastern Mediterranean in general and in Turkey in particular, temperature reconstructions based on tree rings have not been achieved so far. Furthermore, centennial-long chronologies of stable isotopes are generally also missing. Recent studies have identified the tree species Juniperus excelsa as one of the most promising tree species in Turkey for developing long climate sensitive stable carbon isotope chronologies because this species is long-living and thus has the ability to capture low-frequency climate signals. We were able to develop a statistically robust, precisely dated and annually resolved chronology back to AD 1125. We proved that variability of δ13C in tree rings of J. excelsa is mainly dependent on winter-to-spring temperatures (January–May). Low-frequency trends, which were associated with the medieval warm period and the little ice age, were identified in the winter-to-spring temperature reconstruction, however, the twentieth century warming trend found elsewhere could not be identified in our proxy record, nor was it found in the corresponding meteorological data used for our study. Comparisons with other northern-hemispherical proxy data showed that similar low-frequency signals are present until the beginning of the twentieth century when the other proxies derived from further north indicate a significant warming while the winter-to-spring temperature proxy from SW-Turkey does not. Correlation analyses including our temperature reconstruction and seven well-known climate indices suggest that various atmospheric oscillation patterns are capable of influencing the temperature variations in SW-Turkey.  相似文献   

10.
For the first time we present a multi-proxy data set for the Russian Altai, consisting of Siberian larch tree-ring width (TRW), latewood density (MXD), δ13C and δ18O in cellulose chronologies obtained for the period 1779–2007 and cell wall thickness (CWT) for 1900–2008. All of these parameters agree well between each other in the high-frequency variability, while the low-frequency climate information shows systematic differences. The correlation analysis with temperature and precipitation data from the closest weather station and gridded data revealed that annual TRW, MXD, CWT, and δ13C data contain a strong summer temperature signal, while δ18O in cellulose represents a mixed summer and winter temperature and precipitation signal. The temperature and precipitation reconstructions from the Belukha ice core and Teletskoe lake sediments were used to investigate the correspondence of different independent proxies. Low frequency patterns in TRW and δ13C chronologies are consistent with temperature reconstructions from nearby Belukha ice core and Teletskoe lake sediments showing a pronounced warming trend in the last century. Their combination could be used for the regional temperature reconstruction. The long-term δ18O trend agrees with the precipitation reconstruction from the Teletskoe lake sediment indicating more humid conditions during the twentieth century. Therefore, these two proxies could be combined for the precipitation reconstruction.  相似文献   

11.
Seven different tree-ring parameters (tree-ring width, earlywood width, latewood width, maximum density, minimum density, mean earlywood density, and mean latewood density) were obtained from Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) at one chronology site in the Hexi Corridor, China. The chronologies were analyzed individually and then compared with each other. Growth–climate response analyses showed that the tree-ring width and maximum latewood density (MXD) are mainly influenced by warm season temperature variability. Based on the relationships derived from the climate response analysis, the MXD chronology was used to reconstruct the May–August maximum temperature for the period 1775–2008 A.D., and it explained the 38.1% of the total temperature variance. It shows cooling in the late 1700s to early 1800s and warming in the twentieth century. Spatial climate correlation analyses with gridded land surface data revealed that our warm season temperature reconstruction contains a strong large-scale temperature signal for north China. Comparison with regional and Northern Hemisphere reconstructions revealed similar low-frequency change to longer-term variability. Several cold years coincide with major volcanic eruptions.  相似文献   

12.
A new reconstruction of winter and summer temperatures in the Low Countries(the present-day Netherlands and Belgian Flanders), based upon documentary evidence from AD 764 to 1705 and extended by observationsto 1998, is compared with relevant paleo series from the European network. The Low Countries Temperature (LCT) reconstruction is well supported by existing evidence in both seasons from about 1300 onwards,on timescales ranging from annual to centennial.The spectral analysis confirms that the dominant oscillations in the LCT have counterparts in the independent data and that most of theperiodicities characteristic for the instrumental segment of the LCT are preserved in the reconstruction. Throughout thisperiod of reliable reconstruction there was no detectable inhomogeneity of the variances in either seasons.Prior to about 1300, there are few sources that can be used to evaluate LCT. It was possible to add some support for the LCT on decadal andcentennial timescales for the 12th and 13th centuries. However, there is no independent data for the first three centuriesof the reconstruction.The LCT series exhibits significant season-dependent variability on bidecadal and centennial timescales. The seasonality is particularly remarkable in the 10th and 15th centuries which were – on average – warm in the summer and cold in the winter.The 20th century was by far (three standard errors) the warmest century of the last millenniumin terms of winter temperatures, while the 13th century was warmest in terms of summer temperatures (by the narrow margin of one standard error).In both seasons, the coldest centennial period was centered around 1600. The present results place the reconstructed LCT series withinthe existing paleoclimatic network, and provide an insight into temperature variability in the Low Countries through the centuries.  相似文献   

13.
The reconstruction of a temperature record for eighteenth century eastern Massachusetts is discussed. In addition to instrumental records diaries were analyzed in order to produce temperature indices. Reliability tests demonstrate that the methodology used is capable of replicating results regardless of changes in coders or intraregional variability in language. Validity tests, comparing diary reconstructions with instrumental records for the same period, produced positive results. A compilation of all climate related data shows the decades of the 1720's, 1750's, and 1760's were cool, while the 1770's and 1790's were warm.  相似文献   

14.
Cloud cover currently represents the single greatest source of uncertainty in General Circulation Models. Stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) from tree-rings, in areas of low moisture stress, are likely to be primarily controlled by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and therefore should provide a proxy record for cloud cover or sunshine; indeed this association has previously been demonstrated experimentally for Scots pine in Fennoscandia, with sunlight explaining ca 90% of the variance in photosynthesis and temperature only ca 4%. We present a statistically verifiable 1011-year reconstruction of cloud cover from a well replicated, annually-resolved δ13C record from Forfjord in coastal northwestern Norway. This reconstruction exhibits considerable variability in cloud cover over the past millennium, including extended sunny periods during the cool seventeenth and eighteenth centuries and warm cloudy periods during the eleventh, early fifteenth and twentieth centuries. We find that while a generally positive relationship persists between sunshine and temperature at high-frequency, at lower (multi-decadal) frequencies the relationship is more often a negative one, with cool periods being sunny (most notably the Little Ice Age period from 1600 to 1750 CE) and warm periods more cloudy (e.g. the mediaeval and the twentieth century). We conclude that these long-term changes may be caused by changes in the dominant circulation mode, likely to be associated with the Arctic Oscillation. There is also strong circumstantial evidence that prolonged periods of high summer cloud cover, with low PAR and probably high precipitation, may be in part responsible for major European famines caused by crop failures.  相似文献   

15.
Recent temperature trends in long tree-ring and coral proxy temperature histories are evaluated and compared in an effort to objectively determine how anomalous twentieth century temperature changes have been. These histories mostly reflect regional variations in summer warmth from the tree rings and annual warmth from the corals. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North American tree-ring temperature histories and those from the north Polar Urals, covering the past 1000 or more years, indicate that the twentieth century has been anomalously warm relative to the past. In contrast, the tree-ring history from northern Fennoscandia indicates that summer temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period were probably warmer on average than those than during this century. In the Southern Hemisphere, the tree-ring temperature histories from South America show no indication of recent warming, which is in accordance with local instrumental records. In contrast, the tree-ring records from Tasmania and New Zealand indicate that the twentieth century has been unusually warm particularly since 1960. The coral temperature histories from the Galapagos Islands and the Great Barrier Reef are in broad agreement with the tree-ring temperature histories in those sectors, with the former showing recent cooling and the latter showing recent warming that may be unprecedented. Overall, the regional temperature histories evaluated here broadly support the larger-scale evidence for anomalous twentieth century warming based on instrumental records. However, this warming cannot be confirmed as an unprecedented event in all regions.  相似文献   

16.
Portions of the southern and southeastern United States, primarily Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, have experienced century-long (1895–2007) downward air temperature trends that occur in all seasons. Superimposed on them are shifts in mean temperatures on decadal scales characterized by alternating warm (1930s–1940s, 1990s) and cold (1900s; 1960s–1970s) regimes. Regional atmospheric circulation and SST teleconnection indices, station-based cloud cover and soil moisture (Palmer drought severity index) data are used in stepwise multiple linear regression models. These models identify predictors linked to observed winter, summer, and annual Southeastern air temperature variability, the observed variance (r2) they explain, and the resulting prediction and residual time series. Long-term variations and trends in tropical Pacific sea temperatures, cloud cover, soil moisture and the North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations account for much of the air temperature downtrends. Soil moisture and cloud cover are the primary predictors of 59.6 % of the observed summer temperature variance. While the teleconnections, cloud cover and moisture data account for some of the annual and summer Southeastern cooling trend, large significant downward trending residuals remain in winter and summer. Comparison is made to the northeastern United States where large twentieth century upward air temperature trends are driven by cloud cover increases and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) variability. Differences between the Northeastern warming and the Southeastern cooling trends in summer are attributable in part to the differing roles of cloud cover, soil moisture, the Arctic Oscillation and the AMO on air temperatures of the 2 regions.  相似文献   

17.
Characteristics of anomalous precipitation events during the past five centuries in North China (NC) and the middle-lower Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV) were investigated using the data network of dryness/wetness index (DWI) over eastern China. The high occurrence frequency of anomalous precipitation events mainly occurred at periods of high solar forcing, active volcanic eruption, and large anthropogenic forcing (the twentieth century). Coherence and dipole were the two dominant modes in spatial patterns of anomalous precipitation events. Coherent floods dominated the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, whereas coherent droughts occurred frequently in the seventeenth and twentieth centuries. The dipole patterns of anomalous precipitation events were the most frequent in the twentieth century. NC experienced more floods in the cold periods than warm periods. Both NC and the MLYRV experienced far fewer droughts and more floods in the warm eighteenth century when natural climate forcing dominated, and more droughts in the twentieth century when anthropogenic forcing dominated. Coherent drought was the only spatial pattern of precipitation significantly associated with explosive low-latitude volcanic eruptions. The increased coherent droughts and dipole patterns in the twentieth century support the findings of previous modeling studies that the tropospheric aerosols and human-induced land cover changes play important roles in the changes of summer rainfall over eastern China. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. This paper is a contribution to the AMIP-CMIP Diagnostic Sub-project on General Circulation Model Simulation of the East Asian Climate, coordinated by W.-C. Wang.  相似文献   

18.
Three new 159-year long reconstructions of spring, summer, and growing season precipitation totals were developed for northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri from five station clusters (Lawrence, Leavenworth, and Manhattan, Kansas; Miami and Oregon, Missouri). Nonstandard observation practices are inherent in the early meteorological data, which can induce an undercount in precipitation measurements, particularly during the cool season. Threshold analyses of these five station clusters indicated undercount can be lessened for daily precipitation totals of 0.50 in. and greater during the warm season (“half-inch threshold”). Therefore, “adjusted reconstructions” of total precipitation for the spring (AMJ), summer (JA), and growing season (AMJJA) were derived using the “half-inch threshold” totals and an estimate of the missing amount between 0.00 and 0.50 in. based on an average of the modern observations at each station (or the nearest available station). The new precipitation reconstructions suggest that the most severe spring drought may have occurred during the mid-19th century, although the potential for undercount is likely highest during the spring season. The most severe summer precipitation deficit is estimated during the 1930s Dust Bowl drought, followed by the summer drought of the 1910s. When precipitation is totaled for the entire growing season, the mid-19th century and Dust Bowl droughts were of approximately equal magnitude and duration in this reconstruction. However, the integration of precipitation and temperature into seasonal measures of effective moisture, using a new 19th century temperature reconstruction for northeastern Kansas, indicates that the 1930s growing season moisture deficit was the most severe and sustained since 1855, highlighting the extraordinarily high temperatures recorded during the 1930s Dust Bowl drought.  相似文献   

19.
Håkan Grudd 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(7-8):843-857
This paper presents updated tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum density (MXD) from Torneträsk in northern Sweden, now covering the period ad 500–2004. By including data from relatively young trees for the most recent period, a previously noted decline in recent MXD is eliminated. Non-climatological growth trends in the data are removed using Regional Curve Standardization (RCS), thus producing TRW and MXD chronologies with preserved low-frequency variability. The chronologies are calibrated using local and regional instrumental climate records. A bootstrapped response function analysis using regional climate data shows that tree growth is forced by April–August temperatures and that the regression weights for MXD are much stronger than for TRW. The robustness of the reconstruction equation is verified by independent temperature data and shows that 63–64% of the instrumental inter-annual variation is captured by the tree-ring data. This is a significant improvement compared to previously published reconstructions based on tree-ring data from Torneträsk. A divergence phenomenon around ad 1800, expressed as an increase in TRW that is not paralleled by temperature and MXD, is most likely an effect of major changes in the density of the pine population at this northern tree-line site. The bias introduced by this TRW phenomenon is assessed by producing a summer temperature reconstruction based on MXD exclusively. The new data show generally higher temperature estimates than previous reconstructions based on Torneträsk tree-ring data. The late-twentieth century, however, is not exceptionally warm in the new record: On decadal-to-centennial timescales, periods around ad 750, 1000, 1400, and 1750 were equally warm, or warmer. The 200-year long warm period centered on ad 1000 was significantly warmer than the late-twentieth century (p < 0.05) and is supported by other local and regional paleoclimate data. The new tree-ring evidence from Torneträsk suggests that this “Medieval Warm Period” in northern Fennoscandia was much warmer than previously recognized.  相似文献   

20.
The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.  相似文献   

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