共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
近年来珠江口海域航道治理、桥梁工程、港口建设等大型水上工程建设项目越来越多,水工建筑物安全的重要性和对台风浪灾害破坏的敏感性是大型工程重点关注的要素之一,采用台风浪数学模型分析计算极端天气条件对港珠澳大桥岛桥结合部人工岛设计波浪要素的影响。分析统计1949—2014年影响广东省沿海地区的登陆台风资料,采用随机模型分析珠江口地区300年一遇的台风气压降和登陆最大风速参数;建立珠江口水域的台风浪数学模型;选取不利台风登陆路径,采用300年一遇台风参数组合计算极端天气条件下珠江口内东西人工岛的设计波浪要素,对原设计波要素进行复核。可为其他海洋工程项目设计提供新的思路和研究方法。 相似文献
2.
Strong wind and rainfall induced by extreme meteorological processes such as typhoons have a serious impact on the safety of bridges and offshore engineering structures. A new bivariate compound extreme value distribution is proposed to describe the probability dependency structure of annual extreme wind speed and concomitant process maximum rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected area. This probability model takes full account of the case that there may be no rainfall in a typhoon process. A case study based on the observation data of typhoon maximum wind speed and maximum rainfall intensity in Shanghai is conducted to testify the efficiency of the model. Weibull distributions with two parameters are applied to fit respective probability margins, and the joint probability distribution is constructed by Gumbel–Hougaard copula. The fitting results and K–S tests show that these models describe the original data well. The joint return periods are calculated by Poisson bivariate compound extreme value distribution we have proposed. They indicate that typhoons with no rain have smaller joint return periods, and wind speed is the main factor which impacts the change of the joint return periods. 相似文献
3.
我国登陆台风影响区地质灾害易发性分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
地质环境脆弱的地区,台风的特大暴雨可以诱发山体滑坡和泥石流等地质灾害,造成严重人员伤亡。本文分析了我国登陆台风影响区域内的地质灾害时空分布特点,利用信息量方法,通过灾害的易发性区划来分析登陆台风影响区地质灾害特征,进而比较台风和非台风影响条件下地质灾害产生的地理条件和信息量差异。分析结果表明,在台风强降雨条件下,地质灾害的触发地质环境条件较非台风降雨触发地质灾害明显降低,地质灾害脆弱性明显增加。 相似文献
4.
考虑台风导致的高水位和海浪波高对风暴潮灾害的贡献,对1949年以来影响青岛地区的台风暴潮进行了抽样统计.基于二维的泊松冈贝尔逻辑分布模式,对海岸地区的致灾风暴潮进行了长期的随机分析.与传统的警戒水位法不同,新模式能够反映多种环境荷载的综合作用,推算了青岛地区的特大台风暴潮灾害的重现期.计算结果显示,二维复合分布模式适合于描述台风暴潮过程中极值水位与相应波高的联合概率,所得结论对青岛地区的防潮减灾规划和工程建设具有指导意义. 相似文献
5.
G. Muraleedharan N. Unnikrishnan Nair P. G. Kurup 《Journal of Earth System Science》1999,108(3):149-153
It is well accepted that the parent distribution for individual ocean wave heights follows the Weibull model. However this
model does not simulate significant wave height which is the average of the highest one-third of some ‘n’ (n- varies) wave heights in a wave record. It is now proposed to redefine significant wave height as average of the highest one-third
of a constant number (n-constant, say,n = 100) of consecutive individual wave heights. The Weibull model is suggested for simulating redefined significant wave height
distribution by the method of characteristic function. An empirical support of 100.00% is established by Χ2-test at 0.05 level of significance for 3 sets of data at 0900, 1200 and 1500 hrs at Valiathura, Kerala coast. Parametric
relations have been derived for the redefined significant wave height parameters such as mean, maximum one-third average,
extreme wave heights, return periods of an extreme wave height and the probability of realising an extreme wave height in
a time less than the designated return period. 相似文献
6.
Typhoon disaster in China: prediction,prevention, and mitigation 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Typhoon-induced disaster is one of the most important factors influencing the economic development and more than 250 million
in China. In view of the existing state of typhoon disaster prediction, prevention, and mitigation, this paper proposes a
new probability model, Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD), to predict typhoon-induced extreme disaster
events. This model establishes prevention criteria for coastal areas, offshore structures, and estuarine cities, and provides
an appropriate mitigation scheme for disaster risk management and decision-making. 相似文献
7.
由于海洋环境条件的复杂性、多变性及随机性,设计标准的选取是决定工程结构安全度、造价、效益及合理型式的主要因素。传统的设计标准,无法考虑海洋环境条件的随机组合,往往过高估计环境条件设计标准,造成不必要的浪费,甚至使具有开发前景的油田失去开采价值。以实测和后报资料为基础,使用多维联合概率的随机模拟技术,结合不同结构型式的极值响应及不同资料样本的选择方法,提出了海洋工程结构物上的风、浪、流、潮联合荷载及相应的联合概率水平问题,用以作为海洋工程环境荷载设计标准。 相似文献
8.
This paper introduces four kinds of novel bivariate maximum entropy distributions based on bivariate normal copula, Gumbel–Hougaard copula, Clayton copula and Frank copula. These joint distributions consist of two marginal univariate maximum entropy distributions. Four types of Poisson bivariate compound maximum entropy distributions are developed, based on the occurrence frequency of typhoons, on these novel bivariate maximum entropy distributions and on bivariate compound extreme value theory. Groups of disaster-induced typhoon processes since 1949–2001 in Qingdao area are selected, and the joint distribution of extreme water level and corresponding significant wave height in the same typhoon processes are established using the above Poisson bivariate compound maximum entropy distributions. The results show that all these four distributions are good enough to fit the original data. A novel grade of disaster-induced typhoon surges intensity is established based on the joint return period of extreme water level and corresponding significant wave height, and the disaster-induced typhoons in Qingdao verify this grade criterion. 相似文献
9.
The disastrous effects of numerous winter storms on the marine environment in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea during the
last decade show that wind waves generated by strong winds actually represent natural hazards and require high quality wave
forecast systems as warning tools to avoid losses due to the impact of rough seas. Hence, the operational wave forecast system
running at the German Weather Service including a regional wave model for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is checked extensively
whether it provides reasonable wave forecasts, especially for periods of extraordinary high sea states during winter storms.
For two selected extreme storm events that induced serious damage in the area of interest, comprehensive comparisons between
wave measurements and wave model forecast data are accomplished. Spectral data as well as integrated parameters are considered,
and the final outcome of the corresponding comparisons and statistical analysis is encouraging. Over and above the capability
to provide good short-term forecast results, the regional wave model is able to predict extreme events as severe winter storms
connected with extraordinary high waves already about 2 days in advance. Therefore, it represents an appropriate warning tool
for offshore activities and coastal environment. 相似文献
10.
极端天气条件下,波浪引起的高含沙水体会引起航道骤淤,增大航道回淤量。以"马勒卡"台风期间现场水文资料为基础,建立了波流共同作用下的长江口三维潮流泥沙数学模型,研究北槽航道骤淤问题。数学模型验证了"马勒卡"台风期间的北槽水沙过程,相似性较好,通过分离波浪,探讨了潮流与波流共同作用下的含沙量及航道淤积分布差异,研究了台风浪对航道骤淤的影响。研究表明,台风浪对-15 m等深线以浅水域含沙量影响较大,北槽含沙量自上游至口外逐渐增大,改变了常态天气北槽"中间高、两头低"的含沙量分布趋势。台风浪对北槽口内航道回淤分布影响较小,北槽口外航道淤积量剧增,即航道骤淤主要发生在北槽口外。 相似文献
11.
Hsin-Chi Li Tingyeh Wu Hsiao-Ping Wei Hung-Ju Shih Yi-Chiung Chao 《Natural Hazards》2017,86(3):1039-1058
This study examined the Kaoping River basin, Taiwan, an area severely destroyed by Typhoon Morakot in 2009. Dynamically downscaled data were applied to simulate extreme typhoon precipitation events for facilitating future preparation efforts (2075–2099) under climate change conditions. Models were used to simulate possible impacts in upstream and downstream areas for basinwide disaster loss assessment purposes. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability and FLO-2D models were applied to simulate slope-land disaster impacts and sediment volume in the upstream area. The sediment delivery ratio was used to calculate the valid sediment amount delivered downstream and the riverbed uplift altitude. SOBEK was used to build a flood impact model for the Kaoping River basin, and the model was used to simulate potential flooding caused by future extreme typhoon events. The Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System established by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction was used to evaluate the potential loss associated with extreme events. The property loss calculation included 32 land-use categories, including agriculture, forestry, fishery, and animal husbandry losses; industrial and commercial service losses; public building losses; and traffic and hydraulic facility losses. One of the Kaoping River basin townships, Daliao District, had the highest flood depth increase ratio (12.6%), and the losses were 1.5 times the original situation. This was much worse than were the losses suffered during Typhoon Morakot. These results also show that sediment delivered from the upstream areas had a significant influence on the downstream areas. This is a critical issue for future flood mitigation under climate change conditions. 相似文献
12.
New geoid computations for the Hellenic area are carried out using (a) gravity anomalies for the land area available from old and new data bases, and gravity data for the sea area derived from altimetry and a recent digitization of sea gravity maps, and (b) a 1km × 1km digital terrain model. The EGM96 geopotential model is used as the reference field. In order to assess the quality of the computed geoid heights in the continental area comparisons were carried out with GPS/leveling heights and the recently available European Gravimetric Geoid EGG97. In the sea area the geoid heights were compared with sea surface heights of the recent and more accurate TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimetry mission. At the end of this article the improvement of the data bases is discussed and some plans for further development in the methodological schedule are pointed out. 相似文献
13.
The cyclone wave parameters are predicted using Young’s parametric hurricane wave prediction model. The input cyclone tracks
for this work are obtained from Fleet Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Center, USA. Extreme value analysis is carried out
to obtain the wave heights and periods for 1 in 5, 10, 50 and 100 years return periods, respectively. The deep-water hindcast
wave corresponding to 100 years from probable directions are allowed to propagate to Visakhapatnam coastal waters using nearshore
spectral wind-wave mode. The offshore wave height for one in 100-year return period is 11.9 m, and the corresponding nearshore
wave height at 10-m water depth varies between 4.6 and 5.6 m depending on the directional spreading. Weibull distribution
is chosen to fit the 24 cyclonic data sets over a total period of 30 years (September 1972 to November 2002). This paper demonstrates
usefulness of Young’s wave model for deep-water extreme wave hindcasting. Further, the results of the present study would
be highly useful for assessing the design wave height for Visakhapatnam coast. 相似文献
14.
假想台风下的波浪数值模拟是跨海桥隧工程风险评价的重要内容。风场的生成方法与不利路径的选择对于波浪模拟结果有极大影响。研究检验了在单一假想台风风场下进行波浪模拟的合理性,分析了台风路径对于工程区不同方向波浪影响的差异。通过构建珠江口台风浪数学模型,对采用风圈半径方法筛选出的104场台风路径,按300年一遇强度进行了蒙特卡罗模拟。结果表明,对西人工岛处波浪场有重大影响的不利台风路径处于珠江口100km范围内。由此确定了体现不同特征的7条不利台风路径,为进一步研究极端天气条件下珠江口台风浪过程提供基础。研究成果为沿海河口地区易受台风影响的大型工程波浪要素分析提供方法支撑。 相似文献
15.
Spectral and statistical wave parameters obtained from the measured time series wave data off Paradip, east coast of India
during May 1996–January 1997 were analysed along with MIKE 21 spectral wave model (SW) results. Statistical wave parameters
and directional wave energy spectra distinctly separate out the wave conditions that prevailed off Paradip in the monsoon,
fair weather and extreme weather events during the above period. Frequency-energy spectra during extreme events are single
peaked, and the maximum energy distribution is in a narrow frequency band with an average directional spreading of 20°. Spectra
for other seasons are multi-peaked, and energy is distributed over a wide range of frequencies and directions. The NCEP re-analysis
winds were used in the model, and the results clearly bring out the wave features during depressions. The simulated wave parameters
reasonably show good match with the measurements. For example, the correlation coefficient between the measured and modelled
significant wave height is 0.87 and the bias −0.25. 相似文献
16.
Walter C. Dragani Enrique E. D’Onofrio Fernando Oreiro Guadalupe Alonso Mónica Fiore Walter Grismeyer 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(1):269-280
Meteorological tsunamis are frequently observed in different tide stations at the southeastern coast of South America. They are associated with the occurrence of atmospheric gravity waves during the passages of cold fronts over the Buenos Aires Province continental shelf. On the other hand, storm surges are also frequent in the region, and they are associated with strong and persistent southerlies, which are also frequent during cold front passages. The impact of meteorological tsunamis in coastal erosion and in the statistics of storm surge trends is discussed in this paper. For this study, fifteen meteorological tsunamis (with maximum wave heights higher than 0.20 m), seven of them simultaneous to the occurrence of storm surge events (with extreme levels higher than |±0.60 m|), are selected from April 2010 to January 2013. The impact of meteorological tsunamis in the storm erosion potential index (SEPI) is evaluated. Not significant differences are obtained between SEPI calculated with and without filtering the meteorological tsunami signal from the storm surge data series. Moreover, several experiments are carried out computing SEPI from synthetic sea level data series, but very low changes (lower than 4 %) are also obtained. It is concluded that the presence of moderate meteorological tsunamis on sea level records would not enhance this index at the Buenos Aires Province coast. On the other hand, taking into account that meteorological tsunamis can reach up the 20–30 % of the storm surge height, it was concluded that the statistics of storm surge trends (and their uncertainties) should be revised for Mar del Plata data series. 相似文献
17.
We investigated spatial correlations between wave forcing, sea level fluctuations, and shoreline erosion in the Maryland Chesapeake Bay (CB), in an attempt to identify the most important relationships and their spatial patterns. We implemented the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model and a parametric wave model from the USEPA Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) to simulate wave climate in CB from 1985 to 2005. Calibrated sea level simulations from the CBP hydrodynamic model over the same time period were also acquired. The separate and joint statistics of waves and sea level were investigated for the entire CB. Spatial patterns of sea level during the high wave events most important for erosion were dominated by local north-south winds in the upper Bay and by remote coastal forcing in the lower Bay. We combined wave and sea level data sets with estimates of historical shoreline erosion rates and shoreline characteristics compiled by the State of Maryland at two different spatial resolutions to explore the factors affecting erosion. The results show that wave power is the most significant influence on erosion in the Maryland CB, but that many other local factors are also implicated. Marshy shorelines show a more homogeneous, approximately linear relationship between wave power and erosion rates, whereas bank shorelines are more complex. Marshy shorelines appear to erode faster than bank shorelines, for the same wave power and bank height. A new expression for the rate of shoreline erosion is proposed, building on previous work. The proposed new relationship expresses the mass rate of shoreline erosion as a locally linear function of the difference between applied wave power and a threshold wave power, multiplied by a structure function that depends on the ratio of water depth to bank height. 相似文献
18.
Characteristics of high impact weather and meteorological disaster in Shanghai,China 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
This paper discusses the characteristics of high-impact weather events based on available data during 1960–2009, including
the frequency and extreme value of rainstorm, typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado, fog, haze and hot days in Shanghai,
China. The frequency and spatial distribution of meteorological disasters and their impacts on both human and property during
1984–2009 are also discussed. Examination of the frequency indicates a decreasing trend in the occurrence of typhoon, thunderstorm,
strong wind, tornado and fog, and an increasing trend in the occurrence of rainstorm, haze and hot days. The number of casualties
caused by meteorological disasters appears to show a slight decreasing trend while the value of direct economic loss is increasing
slightly during 1984–2009, and the number of collapsed or damaged buildings and the area of affected crops have no significant
trend in Shanghai. These results can be attributed to the great efforts for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters
made by Shanghai government in recent 60 years. With global climate change, urbanization and rapid economic development, Shanghai
has become more vulnerable to high-impact weather and meteorological disaster, especially precipitation extreme, summer high
temperature, haze and typhoon, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of natural disasters are quite useful and
necessary for local government and the public in the future. 相似文献
19.
珠江磨刀门水道地处亚热带季风气候区,直面南海,容易受到热带风暴的袭击。选取台风"纳沙",采用SCHISM模型建立磨刀门水道三维水流盐度数值模型,通过数值试验对比,结合势能异常分析法,探究了台风期间波浪和局地风对磨刀门水道混合与层化的影响。结果显示:由于近岸及河道内水深较浅,波高整体较小,波浪对水体层化过程影响不大,对流速分布有一定的调整作用,使其分布更为均匀,并在一定程度上加强水体掺混,利于外海高浓度盐水向河口和海岸扩散。而台风期间强劲的局地风对垂向水体状态以及势能异常变化率各项均有显著作用,影响着盐淡水的层化混合过程。 相似文献
20.
With the rapid expansion of the scale of deep sea net-cage use in the nearshore area of Hainan Island, tropical cyclone-induced wave hazard assessment is urgently needed. In this study, the wind-wave-current coupled ADCIRC?+?SWAN model, which considers the effects of tidal and storm surges, was used to simulate tropical cyclone events over the last 33 years. This model adopts an unstructured high-resolution grid with a nearshore resolution of up to 100 m. The compared simulated results and observations during typhoons JEBI (2013), HAIYAN (2013) and KALMAEGI (2014) were in agreement. This study statistically analyzed maximum significant wave heights on the basis of a large set of simulated storm wave level maps to derive the wave heights of different return periods. Then, the results of nearshore wave hazard classification were obtained by applying the affinity propagation (AP) clustering method to dozens of nearshore profiles. The results demonstrate that the risk at any point in the nearshore area of Hainan Island is dominated by the wave hazard type and water depth condition. The wave hazard assessment method developed for Hainan Island will be significant in assisting government decision-making in the rational planning of deep sea net-cage aquaculture.
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