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1.
Reservoir system reliability is the ability of reservoir to perform its required functions under stated conditions for a specified period of time. In classical method of reservoir system reliability analysis, the operation policy is used in a simple simulation model, considering the historical/synthetic inflow series and a number of physical bounds on a reservoir system. This type of reliability analysis assumes a reservoir system as fully failed or functioning, called binary state assumption. A number of researchers from various research backgrounds have shown that the binary state assumption in the traditional reliability theory is not extensively acceptable. Our approach to tackle the present problem space is to implement the algorithm of advance first order second moment (AFOSM) method. In this new method, the inflow and reservoir storage are considered as uncertain variables. The mean, variance and covariance of uncertain variables are determined using moment values of reservoir state variables. For this purpose, a stochastic optimization model developed based on the constraint state formulation is applied. The proposed model of reliability analysis is used to a real case study in Iran. As a result, monthly probabilities of water allocation were computed from AFOSM method, and the outputs were compared with those from Monte Carlo method. The comparison shows that the outputs from AFOSM method are similar to those from the Monte Carlo method. In term of practical use of this study, the proposed method is appropriate to determine the monthly probability of failure in water allocation without the aid of simulation.  相似文献   

2.
A dynamic programming model is presented to optimise the intraseasonal distribution of irrigation water to a single crop under the constraints of limited water available and predetermined irrigation timing. The system underlying the model is characterised by two discrete state variables: the available soil-water in the root zone and the net quantity of water to be transferred to the root zone of the crop. Transition equations from one state to another are used in response to irrigation decisions. A multiplicative yield function is employed for estimating the crop yield as it is influenced by soil moisture. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed procedure.  相似文献   

3.
The present study is based on a mathematical model for predicting the yield reduction from non-uniform and deficient irrigation. Two simplifications are introduced in an attempt to reach practical results. Namely a linear yield function for the entire growing season is used and the water distribution pattern is presented by standard statistical distributions such as the Normal and Pearson type 3.Using an analytical approach a simple equation is obtained for quick prediction of crop yield.A numerical example is included and a sensitivity analysis is carried out. The method can be used for optimization of design parameters in sprinkler irrigation systems.  相似文献   

4.
The need for irrigation water in arid and semi-arid regions is mostly supplied by groundwater. Furthermore, the agricultural development in these areas is not generally based on a comprehensive plan, which can cause aquifers depletion. On the other hand, to properly manage an aquifer and to have an optimal crop plan, the stochastic nature of the different parameters of a groundwater system such as groundwater recharge and water demands should be taken into consideration. In this paper, we develop an explicit stochastic optimization model for Firouzabad aquifer in Iran. This formulation is based on the first and second moment analysis for groundwater head which has been initially proposed for surface water resources management by Fletcher and Ponnambalam. We extend the model to create a new random withdrawal policy for conjunctive use setting in which the randomness in available precipitation is taken into account. The interesting point is that the model provides the respective probabilities of shortage and surplus without imposing the extra decision variables into the optimization model. A genetic-based algorithm is used to solve the stochastic nonlinear and non-convex formulation. The outcome results indicate that the current crop pattern should be changed, that is, the allocated areas of some crops have to be meaningfully reduced. Finally, to validate our model efficiency, we demonstrate that how much close the statistical characteristics obtained from the optimization model are to those estimated from the Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, the optimal benefits obtained using the proposed optimization model are as suitable as the benefits achieved using the corresponding Monte Carlo-based optimization model.  相似文献   

5.
With vast regions already experiencing water shortages, it is becoming imperative to manage sustainably the available water resources. As agriculture is by far the most important user of freshwater and the role of irrigation is projected to increase in face of climate change and increased food requirements, it is particularly important to develop simple, widely applicable models of irrigation water needs for short- and long-term water resource management. Such models should synthetically provide the key irrigation quantities (volumes, frequencies, etc.) for different irrigation schemes as a function of the main soil, crop, and climatic features, including rainfall unpredictability. Here we consider often-employed irrigation methods (e.g., surface and sprinkler irrigation systems, as well as modern micro-irrigation techniques) and describe them under a unified conceptual and theoretical framework, which includes rainfed agriculture and stress-avoidance irrigation as extreme cases. We obtain mostly analytical solutions for the stochastic steady state of soil moisture probability density function with random rainfall timing and amount, and compute water requirements as a function of climate, crop, and soil parameters. These results provide the necessary starting point for a full assessment of irrigation strategies, with reference to sustainability, productivity, and profitability, developed in a companion paper [Vico G, Porporato A. From rainfed agriculture to stress-avoidance irrigation: II. Sustainability, crop yield, and net profit. Adv Water Resour 2011;34(2):272-81].  相似文献   

6.
Many methods developed for calibration and validation of physically based distributed hydrological models are time consuming and computationally intensive. Only a small set of input parameters can be optimized, and the optimization often results in unrealistic values. In this study we adopted a multi‐variable and multi‐site approach to calibration and validation of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Motueka catchment, making use of extensive field measurements. Not only were a number of hydrological processes (model components) in a catchment evaluated, but also a number of subcatchments were used in the calibration. The internal variables used were PET, annual water yield, daily streamflow, baseflow, and soil moisture. The study was conducted using an 11‐year historical flow record (1990–2000); 1990–94 was used for calibration and 1995–2000 for validation. SWAT generally predicted well the PET, water yield and daily streamflow. The predicted daily streamflow matched the observed values, with a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0·78 during calibration and 0·72 during validation. However, values for subcatchments ranged from 0·31 to 0·67 during calibration, and 0·36 to 0·52 during validation. The predicted soil moisture remained wet compared with the measurement. About 50% of the extra soil water storage predicted by the model can be ascribed to overprediction of precipitation; the remaining 50% discrepancy was likely to be a result of poor representation of soil properties. Hydrological compensations in the modelling results are derived from water balances in the various pathways and storage (evaporation, streamflow, surface runoff, soil moisture and groundwater) and the contributions to streamflow from different geographic areas (hill slopes, variable source areas, sub‐basins, and subcatchments). The use of an integrated multi‐variable and multi‐site method improved the model calibration and validation and highlighted the areas and hydrological processes requiring greater calibration effort. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
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8.
A method for evaluating the effect of non-uniform and deficient irrigation is presented. The method is based on a deterministic mathematical model that evaluates the effect of the soil water fluctuation in the root zone during the irrigation season on the crop yield.The problem is viewed in conjunction with the management strategy of irrigation water application under the assumption that only shortage of water causes a reduction in yield. The parameters describing the deficit zone of the application pattern, the soil-crop-atmosphere system and the crop response are incorporated in the model. Crop yield predictions are made through the relative water use and a multiplicative and an additive yield functions.A numerical example is used to illustrate the use of the model in sprinkler irrigation practice. The results agree well with those derived from the mathematical model evaluating the irrigation regime and the yield on each square of the irrigated area separately.  相似文献   

9.
ABSTRACT

Traditionally, hydrological models are only calibrated to reproduce streamflow regime without considering other hydrological state variables, such as soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Limited studies have been performed on constraining the model parameters, despite the fact that the presence of a large number of parameters may provide large degree of freedom, resulting in equifinality and poor model performance. In this study, a multi-objective optimization approach is adopted, and both streamflow and soil moisture data are calibrated simultaneously for an experimental study basin in the Saskatchewan Prairies in western Canada. The results of this study show that the multi-objective calibration improves model fidelity compared to the single objective calibration. Moreover, the study demonstrates that single objective calibration performed against only streamflow can fairly mimic the streamflow hydrograph but does not yield realistic estimation of other fluxes such as evapotranspiration and soil moisture (especially in deeper soil layers).  相似文献   

10.
Probabilistic water balance modelling provides a useful framework for investigating the interactions between soil, vegetation, and the atmosphere. It has been used to estimate temporal soil moisture dynamics and ecohydrological responses at a point. This study combines a nonlinear rainfall–runoff theory with probabilistic water balance model to represent varied source area runoff as a function of rainfall depth and a runoff coefficient at hillslope scale. Analytical solutions of the soil‐moisture probability density function and average water balance model are then developed. Based on a sensitivity analysis of soil moisture dynamics, we show that when varied source area runoff is incorporated, mean soil moisture is always lower and total runoff higher, compared with the original probabilistic water balance model. The increased runoff from the inclusion of varied source area runoff is mainly because of a reduction in leakage when the index of dryness is less than one and evapotranspiration when the index of dryness is greater than one. Inclusion of varied source area runoff in the model means that the actual evapotranspiration is limited by less available water (i.e. water limit), which is stricter than Budyko’s and Milly’s water limit. Application of the model to a catchment located in Western Australia showed that the method can predict annual value of actual evapotranspiration and streamflow accurately. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Hu Liu  Wenzhi Zhao  Zhibin He  Jintao Liu 《水文研究》2015,29(15):3328-3341
A combination of field measurements, continuous monitoring and numerical modelling was used to evaluate soil moisture regimes at four sites across a landscape gradient of the Heihe River Basin. Recorded data of precipitation, irrigation and floods were used to build the model, and an optimization technique was employed to calibrate the parameters. Based on the optimized parameters and estimates of future scenarios, the modelling structure was employed to predict the changes in the growing season soil moisture regimes due to climate change and intensive management. The results suggest that the upper‐reach Yeniugou and Xishui sites will become wetter because of alterations in the precipitation regime, and this trend could be strengthened by the expected amplified interannual variability. Precipitation features at middle‐reach Linze and lower‐reach Ejina, however, are not expected to change in the future. We assumed that a more water‐saving irrigation system will replace the current traditional one, and hence, the soil moisture probability density function at the Linze site would tend to be narrowed to ranges around either the wilting point or the point of incipient water stress, depending on how the intervention point and target level are settled. Ejina is expected to experience the most extreme ecological conversion effects in the future, and soil moisture would be more frequently recharged by water delivery. However, the soil moisture regime would not change much because of the poor water‐holding capacity and intensive evaporation. The revealed patterns and predicted shifts in soil moisture dynamics could provide a useful reference for identifying robust long‐term water resource management strategies for the Heihe River Basin. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Information on water balance components such as evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge are crucial for water management. Due to differences in physical conditions, but also due to limited budgets, there is not one universal best practice, but a wide range of different methods with specific advantages and disadvantages. In this study, we propose an approach to quantify actual evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge and water inflow, i.e. precipitation and irrigation, that considers the specific conditions of irrigated agriculture in warm, arid environments. This approach does not require direct measurements of precipitation or irrigation quantities and is therefore suitable for sites with an uncertain data basis. For this purpose, we combine soil moisture and energy balance monitoring, remote sensing data analysis and numerical modelling using Hydrus. Energy balance data and routine weather data serve to estimate ET0. Surface reflectance data from satellite images (Sentinel-2) are used to derive leaf area indices, which help to partition ET0 into energy limited evaporation and transpiration. Subsequently, first approximations of water inflow are derived based on observed soil moisture changes. These inflow estimates are used in a series of forward simulations that produce initial estimates of drainage and ETact, which in turn help improve the estimate of water inflow. Finally, the improved inflow estimates are incorporated into the model and then a parameter optimization is performed using the observed soil moisture as the reference figure. Forward simulations with calibrated soil parameters result in final estimates for ETact and groundwater recharge. The presented method is applied to an agricultural test site with a crop rotation of cotton and wheat in Punjab, Pakistan. The final model results, with an RMSE of 2.2% in volumetric water content, suggest a cumulative ETact and groundwater recharge of 769 and 297 mm over a period of 281 days, respectively. The total estimated water inflow accounts for 946 mm, of which 77% originates from irrigation.  相似文献   

13.
Abstract

Abstract A hydrological simulation model was developed for conjunctive representation of surface and groundwater processes. It comprises a conceptual soil moisture accounting module, based on an enhanced version of the Thornthwaite model for the soil moisture reservoir, a Darcian multi-cell groundwater flow module and a module for partitioning water abstractions among water resources. The resulting integrated scheme is highly flexible in the choice of time (i.e. monthly to daily) and space scales (catchment scale, aquifer scale). Model calibration involved successive phases of manual and automatic sessions. For the latter, an innovative optimization method called evolutionary annealing-simplex algorithm is devised. The objective function involves weighted goodness-of-fit criteria for multiple variables with different observation periods, as well as penalty terms for restricting unrealistic water storage trends and deviations from observed intermittency of spring flows. Checks of the unmeasured catchment responses through manually changing parameter bounds guided choosing final parameter sets. The model is applied to the particularly complex Boeoticos Kephisos basin, Greece, where it accurately reproduced the main basin response, i.e. the runoff at its outlet, and also other important components. Emphasis is put on the principle of parsimony which resulted in a computationally effective modelling. This is crucial since the model is to be integrated within a stochastic simulation framework.  相似文献   

14.
Rainwater harvesting through modified contour ridges known as dead level contours has been practiced in Zimbabwe in the last two decades. Studies have shown marginal soil moisture retention benefits for using this technique while results on crop yield benefits are lacking. This paper presents results from a field study for assessing the impact of dead level contours on soil moisture and crop yield carried out from 2009 to 2011 within the Limpopo River Basin. The experiments were carried out on two study sites; one containing silt loam soil and another containing sandy soil. Three treatments constituting dead level contoured plots, non-contoured plots and plots with the traditional graded contours were used on each site. All the three treatments were planted with a maize crop and managed using conventional farming methods. Planting, weeding and fertiliser application in the three treatments were done at the same time. Crop monitoring was carried out on sub plots measuring 4 m by 4 m established in every treatment. The development of the crop was monitored until harvesting time with data on plant height, leaf moisture and crop yield being collected. An analysis of the data shows that in the site with silt loam soil more soil moisture accumulated after heavy rainfall in dead level contour plots compared to the control (no contours) and graded contour plots (P < 0.05). However the maize crop experienced an insignificantly (P > 0.05) higher yield in the dead level contoured treatment compared to the non-contoured treatment while a significantly (P < 0.05) higher yield was obtained in the dead level contoured treatment when compared with a graded contoured treatment. Different results were obtained from the site with sandy soil where there was no significant difference in soil moisture after a high rainfall event of 60 mm/day between dead level contour plots compared to the control and graded contour plots. The yield from the dead level contoured treatment and that from the graded contoured treatment were comparable and both not significantly (P > 0.05) higher than that from the non-contoured treatment. This suggests that adopting dead level contours as an in situ rainwater harvesting technique results in crop yield benefits in fields with soil type conditions that enable runoff generation but is not likely to have benefit in soils with low runoff generation.  相似文献   

15.
Stochastic modeling of soil moisture dynamics is crucial to the quantitative understanding of plant responses to water stresses,hydrological control of nutrient cycling processes,water competition among plants,and some other ecological dynamics,and thus has become a hotspot in ecohydrology at present.In this paper,we based on the continuously monitored data of soil moisture during 2002―2005 and daily precipitation date of 1992―2006,and tried to make a probabilistic analysis of soil moisture dynamics at point scale in a grassland of Qilian Mountain by integrating the stochastic model improved by Laio and the Monte Carlo method.The results show that the inter-annual variations for the soil moisture patterns at different depths are very significant,and that the coefficient of variance(CV) of surface soil moisture(20 cm) is almost continually kept at about 0.23 whether in the rich or poor rainy years.Interestingly,it has been found that the maximal CV of soil moisture has not always appeared at the surface layer.Comparison of the analytically derived soil moisture probability density function(PDF) with the statistical distribution of the observed soil moisture data suggests that the stochastic model can reasonably describe and predict the soil moisture dynamics of the grassland in Qilian Mountain at point scale.By extracting the statistical information of the historical precipitation data in 1994―2006,and inputting them into the stochastic model,we analytically derived the long-term soil moisture PDF without considering the inter-annual climate fluctuations,and then numerically derived the one when considering the inter-annual fluctuation effects in combination with a Monte-Carlo procedure.It was found that,though the peak position of the probability density distribution significantly moved towards drought when considering the disturbance forces,and its width was narrowed,accordingly its peak value was increased,no significant bimodality was observed in the soil moisture dynamics under the given intensity of random fluctuation disturbance.  相似文献   

16.
The recent transformation of wetlands into farmland in East Africa is accelerating due to growing food-demand, land shortages, and an increasing unpredictability of climatic conditions for crop production in uplands. However, the conversion of pristine wetlands into sites of production may alter hydrological attributes with negative effects on production potential. Particularly the amount and the dynamics of plant available soil moisture in the rooting zone of crops determine to a large extent the agricultural production potential of wetlands. Various methods exist to assess soil moisture dynamics with Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) being among the most prominent. However, the suitability of FDR sensors for assessing plant available soil moisture has to date not been confirmed for wetland soils in the region. We monitored the seasonal and spatial dynamics of water availability for crop growth in an inland valley wetland of the Kenyan highlands using a FDR sensor which was site-specifically calibrated. Access tubes were installed within different wetland use types and hydrological situations along valley transects and soil properties affecting soil moisture (organic C, texture, and bulk density) were investigated. There was little variation in soil attributes between physical positions in the valley, and also between topsoil and subsoil attributes with the exception of organic C contents. With a root mean squared error of 0.073 m3/m3, the developed calibration function of the FDR sensor allows for reasonably accurate soil moisture prediction for both within-site comparisons and the monitoring of temporal soil moisture variations. Applying the calibration equation to a time series of profile probe readings over a period of one year illustrated not only the temporal variation of soil moisture, but also effects of land use.  相似文献   

17.
Competition for water among multiple tree rooting systems is investigated using a soil–plant model that accounts for soil moisture dynamics and root water uptake (RWU), whole plant transpiration, and leaf-level photosynthesis. The model is based on a numerical solution to the 3D Richards equation modified to account for a 3D RWU, trunk xylem, and stomatal conductances. The stomatal conductance is determined by combining a conventional biochemical demand formulation for photosynthesis with an optimization hypothesis that selects stomatal aperture so as to maximize carbon gain for a given water loss. Model results compare well with measurements of soil moisture throughout the rooting zone, of total sap flow in the trunk xylem, as well as of leaf water potential collected in a Loblolly pine forest. The model is then used to diagnose plant responses to water stress in the presence of competing rooting systems. Unsurprisingly, the overlap between rooting zones is shown to enhance soil drying. However, the 3D spatial model yielded transpiration-bulk root-zone soil moisture relations that do not deviate appreciably from their proto-typical form commonly assumed in lumped eco-hydrological models. The increased overlap among rooting systems primarily alters the timing at which the point of incipient soil moisture stress is reached by the entire soil–plant system.  相似文献   

18.
Characterizing the spatial dynamics of soil moisture fields is a key issue in hydrology, offering an avenue to improve our understanding of complex land surface–atmosphere interactions. In this paper, the statistical structure of soil moisture patterns is examined using modelled soil moisture obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 0.125° resolution. The study focuses on the vertically averaged soil moisture in the top 10 cm and 100 cm layers. The two variables display a weak dependence for lower values of surface soil moisture, with the strength of the relationship increasing with the water content of the top layer. In both cases, the variance of the soil moisture follows a power law decay as a function of the averaging area. The superficial layer shows a lower degree of spatial organization and higher temporal variability, which is reflected in rapid changes in time of the slope of the scaling functions of the soil moisture variance. Conversely, the soil moisture in the top 100 cm has lower variability in time and larger spatial correlation. The scaling of these patterns was found to be controlled by the changes in the soil water content. Results have implications for the downscaling of soil moisture to prevent model bias.  相似文献   

19.
结构可靠性分析中各类不确定性的综合处理方法   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
本文在分析了文［１］推广的一次二阶矩方法的局限性后，利用高阶矩标准化方法进一步将该方法推广应用于含有离散变量及模糊不确定性的可靠性分析中，从而给出了一个结构可靠性分析中各类不确定性的综合处理方法。文中通过几个算例说明了该方法的实用性并初步分析了不确定性对可靠度分析结果的影响规律。最后，作为一个工程算例，对一个核电厂安全壳进行了地震可靠性分析。  相似文献   

20.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):1051-1067
Abstract

Groundwater recharge is estimated using an improved daily soil moisture balance based on a single soil water store for a climate classified as tropical with distinct dry seasons; an upland area in northwest Sri Lanka is used as an example. When the water availability is limited and the soil is under stress, the actual evapotranspiration is less than the potential value; the stress factor is estimated in terms of the readily and total available water, soil properties and effective root depth. Runoff is estimated using coefficients which depend on rainfall intensity and soil moisture deficits. A new component, near surface storage, is used to represent continuing evapotranspiration on days following heavy rainfall even though the soil moisture deficit is high. Recharge is estimated for permanent grass and a commonly cultivated vegetable crop. The plausibility of the model outputs is examined using independent information and data, including well water level fluctuations. Uncertainties and variations in parameter values are explored using sensitivity analyses.  相似文献   

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