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1.
I.C.A. da Silveira J.A.M. Lima A.C.K. Schmidt W. Ceccopieri A. Sartori C.P.F. Franscisco R.F.C. Fontes 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2008,45(3-4):187
Temporally-growing frontal meandering and occasional eddy-shedding is observed in the Brazil Current (BC) as it flows adjacent to the Brazilian Coast. No study of the dynamics of this phenomenon has been conducted to date in the region between 22° S and 25°S. Within this latitude range, the flow over the intermediate continental slope is marked by a current inversion at a depth that is associated with the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC). A time series analysis of 10-current-meter mooring data was used to describe a mean vertical profile for the BC-IWBC jet and a typical meander vertical structure. The latter was obtained by an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that showed a single mode explaining 82% of the total variance. This mode structure decayed sharply with depth, revealing that the meandering is much more vigorous within the BC domain than it is in the IWBC region. As the spectral analysis of the mode amplitude time series revealed no significant periods, we searched for dominant wavelengths. This search was done via a spatial EOF analysis on 51 thermal front patterns derived from digitized AVHRR images. Four modes were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Modes 3 and 4, which together explained 18% of the total variance, are associated with 266 and 338-km vorticity waves, respectively. With this new information derived from the data, the [Johns, W.E., 1988. One-dimensional baroclinically unstable waves on the Gulf Stream potential vorticity gradient near Cape Hatteras. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 11, 323–350] one-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model was applied to the interpolated mean BC-IWBC jet. The results indicated that the BC system is indeed baroclinically unstable and that the wavelengths depicted in the thermal front analysis are associated with the most unstable waves produced by the model. Growth rates were about 0.06 (0.05) days−1for the 266-km (338-km) wave. Moreover, phase speeds for these waves were low compared to the surface BC velocity and may account for remarks in the literature about growing standing or stationary meanders off southeast Brazil. The theoretical vertical structure modes associated with these waves resembled very closely to the one obtained for the current-meter mooring EOF analysis. We interpret this agreement as a confirmation that baroclinic instability is an important mechanism in meander growth in the BC system. 相似文献
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Mauricio Jonas Ferreira Amauri Pereira de Oliveira Jacyra Soares 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,104(1-2):43-56
The main goal of this work is to describe the anthropogenic energy flux (Q F) in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil. The hourly, monthly, and annual values of the anthropogenic energy flux are estimated using the inventory method, and the contributions of vehicular, stationary, and human metabolism sources from 2004 to 2007 are considered. The vehicular and stationary sources are evaluated using the primary consumption of energy based on fossil fuel, bio fuel, and electricity usage by the population. The diurnal evolution of the anthropogenic energy flux shows three relative maxima, with the largest maxima occurring early in the morning (??19.9 Wm?2) and in the late afternoon (??20.3 Wm?2). The relative maximum that occurs around noontime (??19.6 Wm?2) reflects the diurnal pattern of vehicle traffic that seems to be specific to S?o Paulo. With respect to diurnal evolution, the energy flux released by vehicular sources (Q FV) contributes approximately 50% of the total anthropogenic energy flux. Stationary sources (Q FS) and human metabolism (Q FM) represent about 41% and 9% of the anthropogenic energy flux, respectively. For 2007, the monthly values of Q FV, Q FS, Q FM, and Q F are, respectively, 16.8?±?0.25, 14.3?±?0.16, 3.5?±?0.03, and 34.6?±?0.41?MJ?m?2?month?1. The seasonal evolution monthly values of Q FV, Q FS, Q FM, and Q F show a relative minimum during the summer and winter vacations and a systematic and progressive increase associated with the seasonal evolution of the economic activity in S?o Paulo. The annual evolution of Q F indicates that the city of S?o Paulo released 355.2?MJ?m?2?year?1 in 2004 and 415.5?MJ?m?2?year?1 in 2007 in association with an annual rate of increase of 19.6?MJ?m?2?year?1 (from 2004 to 2006) and 30.5?MJ?m?2?year?1 (from 2006 to 2007). The anthropogenic energy flux corresponds to about 9% of the net radiation at the surface in the summer and 15% in the winter. The amplitude of seasonal variation of the maximum hourly value of the diurnal variation increases exponentially with latitude. 相似文献
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Exploring the climate problems of Brazil’s Nordeste: a review 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Stefan Hastenrath 《Climatic change》2012,112(2):243-251
This article reviews the exploration of the climate dynamics of Brazil’s Nordeste in the course of a century. The drought-prone and semi-arid northern Nordeste of Brazil experiences a short rainy season around March–April, when the interhemispheric gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic is weakest and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reaches its southernmost position in the course of the annual cycle. The recurrent Secas (droughts) have a severe socio-economic impact. During drought years, the interhemispheric SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic is steep and the ITCZ stays far North, while the waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific tend to be anomalously warm. Based on the extensive diagnostic exploration of the circulation mechanisms of interannual climate variability, empirical methods have been developed for the forecasting of the Nordeste rainy season. These have been applied in the real-time prediction of seasonal rainfall anomalies throughout the last decade of the 20th century. 相似文献
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Arionaldo de Sá Júnior Luiz Gonsaga de Carvalho Fábio Fernandes da Silva Marcelo de Carvalho Alves 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,108(1-2):1-7
The knowledge of the climatic conditions of a region is crucial for its agricultural development. It is also extremely important for understanding the fact that certain cultures have to develop under prevailing temperature and humidity conditions and assist in the adoption of a suitable irrigation technique, as well as its management and operationalization. The K?ppen system of climate classification is widely used for the identification of homogeneous climate zones as it considers only rainfall and temperature as the meteorological elements for classification. For this study, we used climatic databases of rainfall and temperature in a raster format, with a spatial resolution of 30″ of arc (an approximate area of 0.86?km2?pixel?1), from 1961 to 1990. Through geoprocessing techniques, we obtained a map of climatic classification for the state of Minas Gerais. We found that the state has the following three major climatic groups: A, B and C, which correspond to tropical rainy, dry and warm temperate climates, respectively. The climate classes obtained were Aw, Am, BSh, Cwa and Cwb, with Aw, Cwa and Cwb classes occupying 99.89% of the territorial area of the state. The validation of the results showed a satisfactory agreement, with 93.75% reliability. 相似文献
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Myanna Lahsen 《Climatic change》2009,97(3-4):339-372
The IPCC and other global environmental assessment processes stress the need for national scientific participation to ensure decision makers’ trust in the associated scientific conclusions and political agendas. The underpinning assumption is that the relationship between scientists and decision makers at the national level is characterized by trust and interpretive synergy. Drawing on ethnographic research in Brazil, this article challenges that assumption through a case study of the policy uptake of divergent scientific interpretations as to whether or not the Amazon is a net carbon sink. It shows that the carbon sink issue became a site for struggles between important Brazilian scientists and decision-makers with central authority over the definition of the country’s official position in international climate negotiations. In a geopolitically charged scientific controversy involving scientific evidence bearing on the Kyoto Protocol, Brazilian decision makers studied revealed critical distance from national scientists advancing evidence that the Amazon is a net carbon sink. As such, the decision-makers’ interpretations were at odds also with dominant framings in the Brazilian media and closer to those of American scientists involved in carbon cycle research in the Amazon. Seeking to explain this disconnect, the paper discusses the divergent policy preferences of key scientists and decision-makers involved, and the correlations of these preferences with interpretations of the available scientific evidence. It identifies the continued impact of a national political tradition of limited participation in decision making and suggests that this tradition—while increasingly challenged by countervailing democratizing trends—is reinforced by key Brazilian decision makers’ constructions of science as a medium through which rich countries maintain political advantage. Reflecting this, key Brazilian decision-makers justified rejecting national scientists’ interpretations of the Amazon as a significant overall carbon sink by suggesting that the scientists’ scientific training and associated foreign interactions bias them in favor of foreign interests, compromising their ability to accurately identify national interests. The paper situates its analysis in terms of theories of the science–policy interface and argues for greater attention to the role of culturally and politically laden understandings of science and the role of science in policy and geopolitics. 相似文献
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Mauricio Jonas Ferreira Amauri Pereira de Oliveira Jacyra Soares Georgia Codato Eduardo Wilde Bárbaro Jo?o Francisco Escobedo 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(1-2):229-246
The main goal of this work is to describe the diurnal and seasonal variations of the radiation balance components at the surface in the city of S?o Paulo based on observations carried out during 2004. Monthly average hourly values indicate that the amplitudes of the diurnal cycles of net radiation (Q*), downwelling and upwelling shortwave radiation (SWDW, SWUP), and longwave radiations (LWDW, LWUP) in February were, respectively, 37%, 14%, 19%, 11%, and 5% larger than they were in August. The monthly average daily values indicate a variation of 60% for Q*, with a minimum in June and a maximum in December; 45% for SWDW, with a minimum in May and a maximum in September; 50% for SWUP, with a minimum in June and a maximum in September; 13% for LWDW, with a minimum in July and a maximum in January; and 9% for LWUP, with a minimum in July and a maximum in February. It was verified that the atmospheric broadband transmissivity varied from 0.36 to 0.57; the effective albedo of the surface varied from 0.08 to 0.10; and the atmospheric effective emissivity varied from 0.79 to 0.92. The surface effective emissivity remained approximately constant and equal to 0.96. The albedo and surface effective emissivity for S?o Paulo agreed with those reported for urban areas in Europe and North America cities. This indicates that material and geometric effects on albedo and surface emissivity in S?o Paulo are similar to ones observed in typical middle latitudes cities. On the other hand, it was found that S?o Paulo city induces an urban heat island with daytime maximum intensity varying from 2.6°C in July (16:00 LT) to 5.5°C in September (15:00 LT). The analysis of the radiometric properties carried out here indicate that this daytime maximum is a primary response to the seasonal variation of daily values of net solar radiation at the surface. 相似文献
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Netrananda Sahu Swadhin K. Behera J. V. Ratnam Roberto Valmir Da Silva Pradipta Parhi Weili Duan Kaoru Takara R. B. Singh Toshio Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1509-1516
Extremely-low discharge events of the Paranaíba River basin during the austral summer season (December–February, DJF), are found to be associated with the Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies resembling the recently identified El Niño Modoki phenomenon. Extreme discharge events are identified based on their persistent flow for 7 days and more after taking retention time into consideration. Ninety percent of the extremely low discharge events during peak streamflow seasons of DJF, are found to occur during the El Niño Modoki years. A diagnostics study of atmospheric anomalies has shown a clear connection between the modified Walker circulation, associated with the El Niño Modoki, and the precipitation anomalies over the Paranaíba River basin. The climate variations have direct relationship with the rainfall. Streamflow variations are considered as the surrogates to rainfalls. Thus, El Niño Modoki phase is important component to understand and predict the streamflow variations in the Paranaíba River basin. 相似文献
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Clóvis Angeli Sansigolo Mary Toshie Kayano 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,101(1-2):209-216
Long-term variations of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature (TMAX and TMIN) and precipitation records in southern Brazil are investigated for the 1913–2006 period. These variations are carefully analyzed for seasonal and annual indices, taken as regional averages. For this purpose, the serial correlation and trend of the indices are investigated using the run and Mann–Kendall tests. The significant trends are obtained from linear least-square fits. The annual and seasonal TMIN indices show significant warming trends with magnitudes (1.7°C per 100 years for annual index) comparable to those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but lower than those found for the southern Brazil in another previous work. Regarding the two other variables, the indices show significant trends only for summer, being a cooling trend of 0.6°C per 100 years for the TMAX and an increasing trend of 93 mm per 100 years over an average summer precipitation of 367 mm. Concerning the decadal analysis, the 1920s present the lowest annual, autumn, and spring TMIN and the 1990s, the highest ones. The 1970s is the decade with the lowest summer TMAX, and the 1940s the decade with the highest one. The driest decade is the 1940s and the wettest, the 1980s. 相似文献
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The latest scientific findings indicate that the increased concentration of greenhouse gases emitted by anthropogenic sources is significantly altering the balance of the global climate system. Considering forecasts of changes in the hydrological cycle and temperature related to global warming, the dynamics governing the functioning of the Pantanal Wetland, responsible for its rich biodiversity, find themselves threatened. Thus, this study was designed in the space-time of the Pantanal people called pantaneiros, and aims to discuss the Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) of the Traditional Community Cuiabá Mirim regarding climate change. The information presented was obtained from 22 pantaneiros, between March 2008 and March 2010. The population sample was selected by the Snow Ball method. For data collection, semi structured interviews and oral histories were used. The results were compared with observations, simulations and projections of the IPCC AR4 for the region. The main findings of this research indicate that TEK presents itself as a crucial and complementary source of information for the development of local/regional adaptation strategies to climate change, bringing a distinct and relevant point of view from vulnerable stakeholders to the decision makers. 相似文献
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de Medeiros Felipe Jeferson de Oliveira Cristiano Prestrelo Torres Roger Rodrigues 《Climate Dynamics》2020,55(9-10):2327-2341
Climate Dynamics - This study provides an updated dynamical analysis of the observed climate conditions during the longest, most severe and continuous drought (2012–2016) ever recorded in... 相似文献
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Nadiane Smaha Kruk Íria Fernades Vendrame Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha Sin Chan Chou Osvaldo Cabral 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,99(1-2):115-123
The accurate estimate of the surface longwave fluxes contribution is important for the calculation of the surface radiation budget, which in turn controls all the components of the surface energy budget, such as evaporation and the sensible heat fluxes. This study evaluates the performance of the various downward longwave radiation parameterizations for clear and all-sky days applied to the Sertãozinho region in São Paulo, Brazil. Equations have been adjusted to the observations of longwave radiation. The adjusted equations were evaluated for every hour throughout the day and the results showed good fits for most of the day, except near dawn and sunset, followed by nighttime. The seasonal variation was studied by comparing the dry period against the rainy period in the dataset. The least square linear regressions resulted in coefficients equal to the coefficients found for the complete period, both in the dry period and in the rainy period. It is expected that the best fit equation to the observed data for this site be used to produce estimates in other regions of the State of São Paulo, where such information is not available. 相似文献
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da Silva Valquiria Cordeiro de Sousa Nascimento Robson Neto José Pinheiro Lopes de Melo Lopes Fernanda Fernandes Miranda Jaciara Ribeiro Furtado Dermeval Araújo 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,147(1-2):523-534
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The present work had the objective to determine the tendency and the influence percentage of climatic variables on the Temperature and Humidity Index (THI) in... 相似文献
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Manfred Lenzen Roberto Schaeffer Jonas Karstensen Glen P. Peters 《Climatic change》2013,121(4):815-824
Brazil’s economic development has been underpinned by a diverse and – in a global comparison – unusual set of energy carriers, notably hydroelectricity and ethanol from sugar cane. Its energy mix makes Brazil one of the least energy-related carbon-intensive economies worldwide. Given that the country is fast becoming one of the world’s economic powerhouses, decision-makers need to understand the drivers underlying past and current carbon dioxide emissions trends. We therefore investigate a) which key long-term drivers have led to Brazil’s unique emissions profile, and b) the implications of these drivers for Brazil’s national policies. We show that Brazil’s emissions are growing mainly due to increasing individual standards of living, exports and population size, and that this growth is so far unchallenged by technological and structural improvements toward lower emissions intensities and more efficient production structures. As these trends are likely to continue amidst growing international pressure on key economies to reduce their carbon emissions, a decoupling of drivers from emissions is needed to simultaneously meet development and environmental goals. 相似文献
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Marengo Jose A. Torres Roger Rodrigues Alves Lincoln Muniz 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(3-4):1189-1200
This study provides an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future. Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. They are recurrent in the region and while some measures have been taken by the governments to mitigate their impacts, there is still a perception that residents, mainly in rural areas, are not yet adapted to these hazards. The drought affecting the Northeast from 2012 to 2015, however, has had an intensity and impact not seen in several decades and has already destroyed large swaths of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle. Future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, which, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region. All these conditions lead to an increase in evaporation from reservoirs and lakes, affecting irrigation and agriculture as well as key water uses including hydropower and industry, and thus, the welfare of the residents. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting provides efficient means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, identifying vulnerabilities, and allowing for better adaptation measures not only for medium- and long-term climate change but also for extremes of the interannual climate variability, particularly droughts.
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Maria A. F. Silva Dias Juliana Dias Leila M. V. Carvalho Edmilson D. Freitas Pedro L. Silva Dias 《Climatic change》2013,116(3-4):705-722
Significant positive trends are found in the evolution of daily rainfall extremes in the city of São Paulo (Brazil) from 1933 to 2010. Climatic indices including ENSO, PDO, NAO and the sea surface temperature at the coast near São Paulo explain 85 % of the increasing frequency of extremes during the dry season. During the wet season the climatic indices and the local sea surface temperature explain a smaller fraction of the total variance when compared to the dry season indicating that other factors such as the growth of the urban heat island and the role of air pollution in cloud microphysics need to be taken into account to explain the observed trends over the almost eight decades. 相似文献
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