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1.
The climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Italy 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Dario B. Giaiotti Mauro Giovannoni Arturo Pucillo Fulvio Stel 《Atmospheric Research》2007,83(2-4):534-541
In this work 10 years of reports collected by weather amateurs are used to define a preliminary climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Italy. The results show behaviors different from those observed in other countries. Generally, tornadoes and waterspouts are more frequent in late summer and autumn than in the other seasons. The seasonality of tornadoes and waterspouts appears different for different Italian zones, in particular in the Po Valley and Friulian plain and coast (south to the Alps) tornadoes and waterspouts are more frequent in spring and early summer while in the Tirrenian and Ionian coasts (western and southern Italy), tornadoes and waterspouts are more frequent in late summer and autumn. As observed in other studies (Brooks, H., E. and Doswell, C. A. III, 2001. Some aspects of the international climatology of tornadoes by damage classification. Atmos. Res., 56, 191–201.) Italian tornadoes and waterspouts are statistically weaker than in other countries but this difference cannot be completely ascribed to the presence of waterspouts. The “CAPE Storm-Relative-Helicity diagrams” and “Shear Magnitude diagrams” obtained for Italian tornadoes and waterspouts show different characteristics than those obtained for US. The cause of these differences is still unknown, it can rely in the sample selection (problems with the concept of proximity sounding) or in a real climatic effect. 相似文献
2.
After several decades of little work, a revised tornado climatology for Austria is presented. Tornadoes seldom form in the alpine areas, however, near the eastern flanks of the Alps, favourable conditions for tornado genesis are found. Whereas in the alpine regions less than 0.3 tornadoes per 10,000 km2 a year touch down (averaged for provinces or major parts of a province), we can count 0.9 in the greater Graz area, 1.0 in the greater Linz area and 1.2 tornadoes per 10,000 km2 a year in the greater Vienna area, suggesting the existence of so-called tornado alleys. As these regions are the most populated areas of Austria, there is a possible population bias in the dataset. The overall average for Austria is 0.3 tornadoes per 10,000 km2 a year.The database consists of 89 tornadoes, one landspout and six waterspouts, with a total of 96 events. The seasonal peak is in July with a maximum probability of tornadoes in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Every fifth tornado occurs in the hour after 5 p.m. The maximum intensity determined for a tornado in Austria was T7 on the TORRO-Scale (F3 on the Fujita-Scale), the most common intensity is T2 on the TORRO-Scale (F1 on the Fujita-Scale). 相似文献
3.
A study is presented focusing on the potential value of parameters derived from radiosonde data or data from numerical atmospheric models for the forecasting of severe weather associated with convective storms. Parameters have been derived from soundings in the proximity of large hail, tornadoes (including tornadoes over water: waterspouts) and thunderstorms in the Netherlands. 66,365 radiosonde soundings from six stations in and around the Netherlands between 1 Dec. 1975 to 31 Aug. 2003 were classified as being associated or not associated with these weather phenomena using observational data from voluntary observers, the Dutch National Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and lightning data from the U.K. Met. Office. It was found that instability as measured by the Lifted Index or CAPE and 0–6 km wind shear independently have considerable skill in distinguishing environments of large hail and of non-hail-producing thunderstorms. It was also found that CAPE released below 3 km above ground level is on average high near waterspouts and weak tornadoes that mostly occur with low shear in the lowest 1 km above the Earth's surface. On the other hand, low-level shear is strong in environments of stronger (F1 and F2) tornadoes and increases with increasing F-scale. This is consistent with the notion that stretching of pre-existing vertical vorticity is the most important mechanism for the formation of weak tornadoes while the tilting of vorticity is more important with stronger tornadoes. The presented results may assist forecasters to assess the likelihood of severe hail or tornadoes. 相似文献
4.
The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) was formed in the UK in 1974 in order to determine realistic spatial, temporal and intensity distributions of tornadoes in the UK and, eventually, throughout Europe. Currently, TORRO's databases contain nearly 2000 tornadoes and over 550 waterspouts for the UK alone. In 1972, TORRO's founder, Terence Meaden, devised the Tornado Intensity Scale. This scale enables the wind speeds of tornadoes to be rated on a scale from T0 to T10, or more (since it is an open-ended scale). Using this scale, estimates have been made of the statistical return periods of differing intensities of UK tornadoes. TORRO's research into understanding the conditions of tornado development is ultimately intended to lead to issuing forecasts of tornadoes. In 1991, TORRO issued the first tornado watch in the UK for 12 November and this proved to be accurate—not only did three property-damaging tornadoes strike East Anglia but the forecast maximum intensity of T5 was attained. In 1975, TORRO expanded its activities to include conventional thunderstorm reporting and investigations. In 1982, TORRO incorporated the British and Irish thunderstorm data-collection organisation, the Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO), which was established in 1924. By the early 1980s, TORRO's network of voluntary thunderstorm observers, located throughout the UK and Ireland and increasingly in other European countries, numbered around 350 and the network continues to grow. In addition to TORRO's early focus on tornadoes and thunderstorms, its data collection and research has expanded to consider other whirlwinds (such as waterspouts and land devils), hailstorms, lightning (including ball lightning) and blizzards/heavy snowfalls. In 1996, TORRO began providing easy access to its databases (e.g. post-1995 UK and European severe weather events, especially tornadoes and hailstorms) and other information via its internet site at http://www.torro.org.uk/. Building on over 25 years of experience—and of the half a century of the TCO before it—TORRO continues to expand its European role in severe weather data collection and research, helped by the on-going appointment of European representatives and its increasing European membership. 相似文献
5.
Michael J. Newark 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):343-353
Abstract Other than the ground‐breaking work of McKay and Lowe (1960), little has been known about the incidence of tornadoes and the risk of tornado damage in Canada. Data concerning tornadoes during the period 1950 to 1979 (and earlier) have been gathered from many sources and processed to arrive at a set of quantitative conclusions concerning some of their physical characteristics and climatology. The data indicate that tornado incidence (the number of tornadoes per unit area per unit time) in populated sections of Canada is compatible with the incidence values published for adjacent American States, and that the highest annual probability of tornado damage is in southwestern Ontario (0.05 to 0.1%) followed by southeastern Manitoba (0.05%). In terms of size, the Canadian tornado (regardless of intensity) has median damage dimensions of 6 km in length, 80 m in width, and 1 km2 in area. In southwestern Ontario, the return period of a strong or violent tornado is 5 years, and it is likely to have median damage dimensions of 57 km in length, 790 m in width, and 78 km2 in area. 相似文献
6.
Hans Markgraf 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1961,12(3):339-349
Zusammenfassung Der Verfasser diskutiert die Wahrscheinlichkeit der verschiedenen, für die Erklärung der Entstehung von Tromben aufgestellten Theorien, die sich teils auf die Annahme thermodynamischer, teils auf die mechanischer Vorgänge stützen.
Mit 7 Textabbildungen 相似文献
Summary The author discusses the probability of the various theories which have been developed for the explanation of tornadoes and waterspouts; they are based on the assumption partly of thermodynamical, partly of mechanical processes.
Résumé Discussion de la probabilité des diverses théories développées pour l'explication des trombes; elles sont basées sur la supposition de phénomènes soit thermodynamiques soit mécaniques.
Mit 7 Textabbildungen 相似文献
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8.
A climatology of severe thunderstorms in the Australian State of New South Wales is described, using the data base of more than 1000 severe thunderstorm events held in the New South Wales Regional Office of the Bureau of Meteorology. Previously only a tornado climatology was described. Severe thunderstorms are the second most costly weather phenomenon in Australia (after tropical cyclones), on the basis of insurance payouts for major events since June 1967. Two thirds of this cost occurs in New South Wales.Severe thunderstorms show marked diurnal and seasonal distributions with maxima in the warmer months and during the late evening. Distributions are similar to those in the United States. The peak months for large and giant hail, tornadoes, strong winds and flash floods differ, being respectively November, December, January and February. While these temporal distributions are reasonably well defined, knowledge of the historical and spatial distributions is limited. A means of deriving a spatial distribution is given, which is based on the frequency near Sydney and the relative frequency at a time when there was a more uniform population distribution over the State.The climatology of severe thunderstorms is not an adequate basis for assessing the impacts of a future climate change. However, there are possible means of doing this utilising numerical climate models, and these are suggested.Author for correspondence. 相似文献
9.
2017年8月11日下午,三个EF4级龙卷袭击了内蒙古自治区赤峰市的地形复杂地区,造成5人死亡,58人受伤。这是1961年以来中国有记录的最强山地龙卷事件。首先给出了此次龙卷过程的灾情调查结果,接下来分析了此次龙卷母体风暴-龙卷超级单体产生的天气背景、关键环境参数以及多普勒天气雷达观测特征。本次龙卷事件发生在东北冷涡东南象限的地面锋前和干线向湿侧发展处,CAPE(对流有效位能)值为1 800 J/kg,0～6 km风垂直切变为12.9 m/s,0～1 km风垂直切变达到10.8 m/s;同时,0～1 km相对风暴螺旋度达到67.3 m2/s2,接近美国龙卷发生环境的中位数,有利于超级单体龙卷的发生。现场灾害调查发现,灾害路径具有多涡旋和不连续的特点,可能与当地的复杂地形有关。基于多普勒天气雷达相对径向速度图识别出三个龙卷涡旋特征(TVS),TVS径向速度差最大达到38 m/s。三个龙卷及对应TVS出自同一个超级单体的同一个中气旋,其中两个TVS出现时间重叠。 相似文献
10.
Srkzi Szilrd 《Atmospheric Research》2007,83(2-4):263-271
Due to the significant amount of severe storm damage from the mid 1990s, a practical need has arisen for updating risk assessment. For reliable and systematic sampling of events, data acquisition has been arranged through the disaster management official body using a pyramidal national coverage. Post-analysis, including its meteorological part, proceeds in a GIS environment. This paper focuses specifically on damaging tornadoes, since those are the most violent and best-documented phenomena. Different statistics are calculated and explained, such as seasonal, diurnal and magnitude distributions. Spatial occurrence and features are mapped. A complete synoptic climatology is given by typifying the generating conditions and categorizing events into certain classes, while discussing the role of the Carpathian Basin. In the end a conceptual issue in connection with self-similarity is raised for further discussion. 相似文献
11.
根据中国气象灾害大典、年鉴、全国与河南省气候影响评价等文献,对豫东南区域1949-2011年30次龙卷风的历史记录逐个进行了时空分析和富士达分级：63 a来发生于6、7月的龙卷风占总次数的2/3;20世纪80年代集中发生在1984年和1986年,90年代仅1990、1993年没有发生,21世纪前10 a主要是2005年的3次（均为F1级）。有24个县（市）曾有龙卷风光顾过,发生最多的汝南和潢川曾遭遇过5次龙卷风袭击,其他县（市）分别出现1～4次不等。灾害特征是较低级别的F0和F1等级较多,F2等级较少,但发生的概率和强度等级均高于豫西。 相似文献
12.
Paul Joe Cliff Crozier Norman Donaldson Dave Etkin Erik Brun Steve Clodman 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):249-302
Abstract Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings. 相似文献
13.
The synoptic and mesoscale conditions associated with waterspout occurrence in the Adriatic, Ionian and Aegean Sea are examined in an attempt to quantitatively assess the meteorological environment favourable to the development of waterspouts. For this study, synoptic circulation patterns have been examined for 28 waterspout events in the central-eastern Mediterranean. The waterspouts were reported within the summer and fall of 2002, from July to November, a period of unusually high whirlwind activity. The Adriatic was most active during July, August and September and the Ionian and Aegean during September, October and November. Of the examined waterspout cases, 13 out of the total of 28 were found to be fair-weather waterspouts, while 15 represent tornadic events. For waterspout days, the frequency and distribution of four basic synoptic types, namely, south-west flow (SW), long-wave trough (LW), closed low (CLOSED) and short-wave trough (SWT), were investigated. The particular synoptic features that contributed to the development of waterspout activity were examined, based on five selected waterspout case studies. The mesoscale environment was explored using thermodynamic indices, moisture and wind parameters as derived by operational soundings from the nearest sites (preferably upwind) and closest in time to the waterspout occurrences. The results present an analysis of waterspout types in conjunction to thermodynamic and wind parameters for the purpose of determining synoptic patterns and mesoscale conditions most relevant to waterspout occurrences in these sea areas of the Mediterranean. 相似文献
14.
In the framework of the Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP), the ISBA land-surface scheme of the ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model has been forced with meteorological observations and analyses in order to produce a two-year (1987–1988) soil moisture climatology at a 1°×1° horizontal resolution. This climatology is model dependent, but it is the climatology that the ARPEGE model would produce if its precipitation and radiative fluxes were perfectly simulated. In the present study, ensembles of seasonal simulations (March to September) have been performed for 1987 and 1988, in which the total soil water content simulated by ARPEGE is relaxed towards the GSWP climatology. The results indicate that the relaxation has a positive impact on both the model's climatology and the simulated interannual variability, thereby confirming the utility of the GSWP soil moisture data for prescribing initial or boundary conditions in comprehensive climate and numerical weather prediction models. They also demonstrate the relevance of soil moisture for achieving realistic simulations of the Northern Hemisphere summer climate. In order to get closer to the framework of seasonal predictions, additional experiments have been performed in which GSWP is only used for initialising soil moisture at the beginning of the summer season (the relaxation towards GSWP is removed on 1st June). The results show a limited improvement of the interannual variability, compared to the simulations initialised from the ARPEGE climatology. However, some regional patterns of the precipitation differences between 1987 and 1988 are better captured, suggesting that seasonal predictions can benefit from a better initialisation of soil moisture. 相似文献
15.
利用欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA5再分析数据, 统计1979—2020年辽宁省42个温带气旋龙卷环境背景和物理量参数特征, 结果表明:辽宁省温带气旋龙卷多发于温带气旋中心的西南、东南象限, 与冷锋前暖区相对应, 主要分布在辽河平原中西部及渤海湾沿岸, 强龙卷(EF2及以上级别)占比为28.6%。风暴相对螺旋度和对流有效位能的大值区出现在气旋西南—东南象限, 呈带状分布, 龙卷风暴主要分布于风暴相对螺旋度大值区西北侧、对流有效位能大值区的顶端的强梯度区附近。强龙卷参数最大值达0.7, 其大值区与EF2及以上级别龙卷相对应。地面冷锋和干线是温带气旋龙卷的关键触发系统, 对比近气旋中心和冷锋尾部湿度垂直分布, 后者所表现的高层强干侵入导致风暴产生更强的冷池, 过强的下沉气流可能是龙卷产生的不利因素。温带气旋龙卷多分布于高空急流左侧气流的分流区内, 对应高空强辐散区。0~3 km垂直温度递减率大值区与气旋中心附近的弱龙卷高发区有较好对应关系。 相似文献
16.
Franois Paul 《Atmospheric Research》2001,56(1-4)
The analysis of 304 French tornadoes shows that the most struck areas are the northwestern part of the country, the south and the east. Tornadoes occur mainly in spring and in summer; August is the month when the frequency is maximum. Tornadoes move mainly from southwest to northeast, except in the south where the direction is sometimes south to north. Thirty-six killer tornadoes were listed (12% of the cases); most of them with an intensity greater or equal to F3. The occurrence is approximately 15–20 tornadoes each year in France, and the annual risk probability of significant tornadoes in France is 0.66×10−5. This value is probably underestimated because all the tornadoes are not listed. 相似文献
17.
佛山市龙卷风活动的特征及环流背景分析 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
利用常规气象观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,分析了多年来佛山龙卷风的活动特点及其产生的环流背景和环境条件。结果表明:佛山龙卷风集中出现在4—8月;发生时间主要集中在08:00—14:00;发生地域以南海区最多,其次是三水区;16次龙卷风过程可归纳为4种诱生形势:台风外围型、锋面暖区型、地面辐合线型和热带扰动型。分析还发现:佛山龙卷风发生于偏南暖湿气流中,中低层通常有西南或偏南急流叠加配置,并存在强的垂直风切变和中干冷、下暖湿的强不稳定层结及较低的抬升凝结高度。另外,佛山龙卷风的发生还与地形因素关系密切。 相似文献
18.
京津冀区域龙卷风灾害特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于气象报表、中国气象灾害大典、气象灾情数据库以及档案馆地方志等历史资料,查阅1956—2016年京津冀区域的龙卷风个例,按照"增强藤田级别"龙卷风强度等级分类标准,采用专家评定法对龙卷风个例进行定级,并运用时间序列、趋势分析和空间分析方法,对龙卷风的时空分布、灾害特征进行了统计分析。主要结论如下:①1956—2016年,京津冀区域共确认龙卷风个例188个,空间分布上,龙卷风发生最多的区域有2个,一是张家口坝上4县:张北、尚义、沽源、康保,二是京津冀东部地区,特别是沧州、天津、唐山、秦皇岛沿海地区是龙卷风高发区;②时间分布上,1985—1993年龙卷风发生次数最多,90年代以后呈下降趋势;③龙卷风在夏季发生次数占总数的81.9%,龙卷风主要发生时段为11:00—20:00;④对有灾情记录的122个龙卷风个例,经专家评定,EF4和EF3级各1例,EF2级14例,EF1级52例,EF0级54例。 相似文献
19.
山东省龙卷风发生的气候特征 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
根据藤田-皮尔森强度分类法对1950年～2000年山东省出现的351次龙卷风进行分类，其中F0级61次，F1级256次，F2级34次。山东半岛、鲁中、鲁南出现次数较多，鲁西北较少。1950～1972年发生次数明显高于1973～2000年。龙卷风发生存在明显的季节变化，夏季发生较多。龙卷风主要发生于午后至傍晚，多数龙卷风仅能维持几分到十几分钟。 相似文献