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1.
Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.  相似文献   

2.
A continuing goal in the diagnostic studies of the atmospheric general circulation is to estimate various quantities that cannot be directly observed. Evaluation of all the dynamical terms in the budget equations for kinetic energy, vorticity, heat and moisture provide estimates of kinetic energy and vorticity generation, diabatic heating and source/sinks of moisture. All these are important forcing factors to the climate system. In this paper, diagnostic aspects of the dynamics and energetics of the Asian summer monsoon and its spatial variability in terms of contrasting features of surplus and deficient summer monsoon seasons over India are studied with reanalysis data sets. The daily reanalysis data sets from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) are used for a fifty-two year (1948–1999) period to investigate the large-scale budget of kinetic energy, vorticity, heat and moisture. The primary objectives of the study are to comprehend the climate diagnostics of the Asian summer monsoon and the role of equatorial convection of the summer monsoon activity over India.It is observed that the entrance/exit regions of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) are characterized by the production/destruction of the kinetic energy, which is essential to maintain outflow/inflow prevailing at the respective location of the TEJ. Both zonal and meridional components contribute to the production of kinetic energy over the monsoon domain, though the significant contribution to the adiabatic generation of kinetic energy originates from the meridional component over the Bay of Bengal in the upper level and over the Somali Coast in the low level. The results indicate that the entire Indian peninsula including the Bay of Bengal is quite unstable during the summer monsoon associated with the production of vorticity within the domain itself and maintain the circulation. The summer monsoon evinces strong convergence of heat and moisture over the monsoon domain. Also, considerable heat energy is generated through the action of the adiabatic process. The combined effect of these processes leads to the formation of a strong diabatic heat source in the region to maintain the monsoon circulation. The interesting aspect noted in this study is that the large-scale budgets of heat and moisture indicate excess magnitudes over the Arabian Sea and the western equatorial Indian Ocean during surplus monsoon. On the other hand, the east equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal region show stronger activity during deficient monsoon. This is reflected in various budget terms considered in this study.  相似文献   

3.
Seasonal climate prediction for the Indian summer monsoon season is critical for strategic planning of the region. The mean features of the Indian summer monsoon and its variability, produced by versions of the ‘Florida State University Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model’ (FSUCGCM) hindcasts, are investigated for the period 1987 to 2002. The coupled system has full global ocean and atmospheric models with coupled assimilation. Four member models were created by choosing different combinations of parameterizations of the physical processes in the atmospheric model component. Lower level wind flow patterns and rainfall associated with the summer monsoon season are examined from this fully coupled model seasonal integrations. By comparing with observations, the mean monsoon condition simulated by this coupled model for the June, July and August periods is seen to be reasonably realistic. The overall spatial low-level wind flow patterns and the precipitation distributions over the Indian continent and adjoining oceanic regions are comparable with the respective analyses. The anomalous below normal large-scale precipitation and the associated anomalous low-level wind circulation pattern for the summer monsoon season of 2002 was predicted by the model three months in advance. For the Indian summer monsoon, the ensemble mean is able to reproduce the mean features better compared to individual member models.  相似文献   

4.
Although the identification of the moisture sources of a region is of prominent importance to characterize precipitation, the origin and amount of moisture towards the Indian Subcontinent and its relationship with the occurrence of precipitation are still not completely understood. In this article, the origin of the atmospheric water arriving to the Western and Southern India during a period of 5 years (1 January 2000–31 December 2004) is investigated by using a Lagrangian diagnosis method. This methodology computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity of thousands of air particles aimed to the study area following the observed winds. During the summer monsoon, the main supply of moisture is the Somali Jet, which crosses the equator by the West Indian Ocean. The recycling process is the main water vapour source in winter. Two additional moisture sources located over northwestern India and the Bay of Bengal are identified. A 30% increase in the moisture flux from the Indian Ocean has been related to the occurrence of strong precipitation in the area, and at the end of the monsoon, the recycling became a significant contribution to the last part of the wet season of Western and Southern India. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
The time mean response of the summer monsoon circulation, as simulated by the 2.5° latitude-longitude resolution, July version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Model (GCM), to a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns is examined. In separate experiments, prescribed changes in surface temperature are imposed in the Western Arabian Sea, the Eastern Arbian Sea or the Central Indian Ocean. The influence of these anomaly patterns on the simulated summer monsoon circulation is evaluated in terms of the geographical distribution of the prescribed change response for any field of interest. This response is defined as the grid point difference between a 30-day mean from a prescribed change experiment and the ensemble average of the 30-day means from the control population for which the same set of climatological ocean surface temperatures are used in each simulation. The statistical significance of such a prescribed change response is estimated by relating the normalized response (defined as the ratio of the prescribed change response to the standard deviation of 30-day means as estimated from the finite sample of control cases) to the classical Student'st-statistic. Using this methodology, the most prominent and statistically significant features of the model's response are increased vertical velocity and precipitation over warm anomalies and typically decreased vertical velocity and precipitation in some preferred region adjacent to the prescribed change region. In the case of cold anomalies, these changes are of opposite sign. However, none of the imposed anomaly patterns produces substantial or statistically significant precipitation changes over large areas of the Indian sub-continent. The only evidence of a major nonlocal effect is found in the experiment with a large positive anomaly (+3°C) in the Central Indian Ocean. In this instance, vertical velocity and precipitation are reduced over Malaysia and a large area of the Equatorial Western Pacific Ocean. Thus, while these anomaly experiments produce only a local response (for the most part), it is hoped, as one of the purposes of the planned Monsoon Experiment (MONEX), that the necessary data will be provided to produce detailed empirical evidence on the extent to which Indian Ocean surface temperature anomalies correlate with precipitation anomalies over the Indian subcontinent—a correlation which generally does not appear in these GCM results.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation  相似文献   

6.
—The influence of soil moisture and vegetation variation on simulation of monsoon circulation and rainfall is investigated. For this purpose a simple land surface parameterization scheme is incorporated in a three-dimensional regional high resolution nested grid atmospheric model. Based on the land surface parameterization scheme, latent heat and sensible heat fluxes are explicitly estimated over the entire domain of the model. Two sensitivity studies are conducted; one with bare dry soil conditions (no latent heat flux from land surface) and the other with realistic representation of the land surface parameters such as soil moisture, vegetation cover and landuse patterns in the numerical simulation. The sensitivity of main monsoon features such as Somali jet, monsoon trough and tropical easterly jet to land surface processes are discussed.¶Results suggest the necessity of including a detailed land surface parameterization in the realistic short-range weather numerical predictions. An enhanced short-range prediction of hydrological cycle including precipitation was produced by the model, with land surface processes parameterized. This parameterization appears to simulate all the main circulation features associated with the summer monsoon in a realistic manner.  相似文献   

7.
—The thermodynamic characteristics of the Asian summer monsoon are examined with a global analysis-forecast system. In this study, we investigated the large-scale balances of heat and moisture by making use of operational analyses as well as forecast fields for June, July and August (JJA), 1994. Apart from elucidating systematic errors in the temperature and moisture fields, the study expounds the influence of these errors on the large-scale budgets of heat and moisture over the monsoon region. The temperature forecasts of the model delineate predominant cooling in the middle and lower tropospheres over the monsoon region. Similarly, the moisture forecasts evince a drying tendency in the lower troposphere. However, certain sectors of moderate moistening exist over the peninsular India and adjoining oceanic sectors of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.¶The broad features of the large-scale heat and moisture budgets represented by the analysis/forecast fields indicate good agreement with the observed aspects of the summer monsoon circulation. The model forecasts fail to retain the analyzed atmospheric variability in terms of the mean circulation, which is indicated by underestimation of various terms of heat and moisture budgets with an increase in the forecast period. Further, the forecasts depict an anomalous diabatic cooling layer in the lower middle troposphere of the monsoon region which inhibits vertical transfer of heat and moisture from the mixed layer of the atmospheric boundary layer to the middle troposphere. In effect, the monsoon circulation is considerably weakened with an increase in the forecast period. The treatment of shallow convection and the use of interactive clouds in the model can reduce the cooling bias considerably.  相似文献   

8.
Summary Using the daily upper air data of 00 GMT, the values of precipitable water, mean and eddy transport of moisture and the vergence patterns over the Indian sub-continent were evaluated for two contrasting summer monsoon seasons, 1966 and 1967. The precipitable water did not change markedly between the strong and weak monsoons. But there was a marked decrease in the zonal transport, up to 70%, in certain regions in the weak monsoon. In the strong monsoon, the meridional transport increased by a factor of 2 in certain regions and the vergence patterns also strengthened likewise in certain other regions.  相似文献   

9.
In this study, sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon simulation to the Himalayan orography representation in a regional climate model (RegCM) is examined. The prescribed height of the Himalayan orography is less in the RegCM model than the actual height of the Himalayas. Therefore, in order to understand the impact of the Himalayan orography representation on the Indian summer monsoon, the height of the Himalayan orography is increased (decreased) by 10 % from its control height in the RegCM model. Three distinct monsoon years such as deficit (1987), excess (1988) and normal rainfall years are considered for this study. The performance of the RegCM model is tested with the use of a driving force from the reanalysis data and a global model output. IMD gridded rainfall and the reanalysis-2 data are used as verification analysis to validate the model results. The RegCM model has the potential to represent mean rainfall distribution over India as well as the upper air circulation patterns and some of the semi-permanent features during the Indian summer monsoon season. The skill of RegCM is reasonable in representing the variation in circulation and precipitation pattern and intensity during two contrasting rainfall years. The simulated seasonal mean rainfall over many parts of India especially, the foothills of the Himalaya, west coast of India and over the north east India along with the whole of India are more when the orography height is increased. The low level southwesterly wind including the Somali jet stream as well as upper air circulation associated with the tropical easterly jet stream become stronger with the enhancement of the Himalayan orography. Statistical analysis suggests that the distribution and intensity of rainfall is represented better with the increased orography of RegCM by 10 % from its control height. Thus, representation of the Himalayan orography in the model is close to actual and may enhance the skill in seasonal scale simulation of the Indian summer monsoon.  相似文献   

10.
变网格大气模式对1998年东亚夏季风异常的模拟研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
本文利用法国国家科研中心(CNRS)动力气象实验室(LMD)发展的可变网格的格点大气环流模式LMDZ4,对1998年东亚夏季降水进行了模拟,考查了变网格模式对东亚夏季降水的模拟性能.结果表明,模式在一定程度上能模拟出东亚夏季降水的极大值中心、夏季风雨带以及降水由东南向西北递减的空间分布特征.模式基本再现了1998年夏季两次雨带的进退特征,包括降水强度、雨带范围等,从而合理再现了1998年夏季江淮地区的"二度梅"现象.与观测相比,模拟的不足在于:在陡峭地形区附近存在虚假降水;江淮和华北地区以及四川盆地存在水汽输送的气旋式辐合偏差,同时高层环流辐散偏强,使得下层暖湿空气辐合上升、降水偏多;在东南地区存在反气旋式的水汽输送偏差,30°N以南地区降水偏少.对于1998年的"二度梅"现象,模拟偏差主要表现为长江中下游地区两次(特别是第二次)较强降水持续时间偏短,强降水范围偏小,而黄淮和华南地区却降水偏多.分析表明,模式对两次梅雨期降水的模拟偏差直接受环流形势模拟偏差的影响.LMDZ4区域模式版本的特点一是区域加密,二是加密区内预报场每10天向再分析资料恢复一次.敏感试验结果表明,LMDZ4加密区向强迫场的10天尺度恢复总体上有利于提高模式对华北降水的模拟能力,而对长江流域和华南降水的模拟具有不利影响.较之均匀网格模拟试验,加密试验由于在东亚的分辨率大大提高,对东亚夏季降水模拟效果更好.  相似文献   

11.
Summary Monsoon depression is one of the most important synoptic scale disturbances on the quasi-stationary planetary scale monsoon trough over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season (June to September). Salient features of the climatology of the depressions with regard to frequency of cyclogenesis, life expectancy, horizontal scale and tracks are discussed. Rainfall aspects of the depressions are discussed in some detail and the role of local, dynamical and sub-synoptic scale factors are brought out. Work done on the life history such as formation, intensification and maintenance of depressions has been reviewed based on synoptical and theoretical approaches. Structure of the depression based on composited, synoptical and dynamical studies is discussed. Wind circulation, thermal and moisture patterns, vertical motion field, vorticity budget etc., of a recent case study are brought out in some detail. The problem of movement of the depression against the low level basic westerly wind is briefly discussed and the results of several numerical and climatological prediction models are presented.  相似文献   

12.
—The present study emphasizes the importance of proper representation of boundary layer physics in a general circulation model. The Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) closure scheme incorpo rates important processes of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) compared to a simplistic first-order closure model. Hence the model which has the TKE closure scheme is capable of simulating important weather systems associated with summer monsoon, such as monsoon depressions and lows that form over the Indian subcontinent quite well compared to the first-order closure model. The present study indicates better performance of the global model with the TKE scheme in the prediction of the monsoon circulation, including the tracks of the depressions over the Indian subcontinent. Medium-range weather prediction has also improved with the use of the TKE closure. However further studies are necessary to improve the forecast, with emphasis on boundary layer processes.  相似文献   

13.
The planetary boundary layer(PBL)scheme in the regional climate model(RCM)has a significant impact on the interactions and exchanges of moisture,momentum,and energy between land,ocean,and atmosphere;however,its uncertainty will cause large systematic biases of RCM.Based on the four different PBL schemes(YSU,ACM2,Boulac,and MYJ)in Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,the impacts of these schemes on the simulation of circulation and precipitation during the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)are investigated.The simulated results of the two local turbulent kinetic energy(TKE)schemes,Boulac and MYJ,are more consistent with the observations than those in the two nonlocal closure schemes,YSU and ACM2.The former simulate more reasonable low-level southwesterly flow over East China and west pacific subtropical high(WPSH)than the latter.As to the modeling of summer monsoon precipitation,both the spatial distributions and temporal evolutions from Boulac and MYJ are also better than those in YSU and ACM2 schemes.In addition,through the comparison between YSU and Boulac experiments,the differences from the results of EASM simulation are more obvious over the oceanic area.In the experiments with the nonlocal schemes YSU and ACM2,the boundary layer mixing processes are much stronger,which lead to produce more sea surface latent heat flux and enhanced convection,and finally induce the overestimated precipitation and corresponding deviation of monsoon circulation.With the further study,it is found that the absence of air-sea interaction in WRF may amplify the biases caused by PBL scheme over the ocean.Consequently,there is a reduced latent heat flux over the sea surface and even more reasonable EASM simulation,if an ocean model coupled into WRF.  相似文献   

14.
The arid and semi-arid (ASA) region of Asia occupies a large area in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, of which the main body is the ASA region of Central and East Asia (CEA). In this region, the climate is fragile and the environment is sensitive. The eastern part of the ASA region of CEA is located in the marginal zone of the East Asian monsoon and is jointly influenced by westerly circulation and the monsoon system, while in the western part of the ASA of CEA, the climate is mainly controlled by westerly circulation. To understand and predict the climate over this region, it is necessary to investigate the influence of general circulation on the climate system over the ASA region of CEA. In this paper, recent progress in understanding the relationship between the general circulation and climate change over the ASA region is systematically reviewed. Previous studies have demonstrated that atmospheric circulation represents a significant factor in climate change over the ASA region of CEA. In the years with a strong East Asian summer monsoon, the water vapor flux increases and precipitation is abundant in the southeastern part of Northwest China. The opposite situation occurs in years when the East Asian summer monsoon is weak. With the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon, the climate tends to dry over the semi-arid region located in the monsoon marginal zone. Recently, owing to the strengthening of the South Asian monsoon, more water vapor has been transported to the ASA region of Asia. The Plateau summer monsoon intensity and the precipitation in summer exhibit a significant positive correlation in Central Asia but a negative correlation in North China and Mongolia. A significant positive correlation also exists between the westerly index and the temperature over the arid region of CEA. The change in the westerly circulation may be the main factor affecting precipitation over the arid region of Central Asia.  相似文献   

15.
Stable isotopes in precipitation are useful tracers to strengthen understanding of climate change and hydrological processes. In this study, the moisture sources of 190 precipitation events in Beijing were analysed using the Hybrid Single‐particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model, based on which we studied the relation between variations in precipitation δ18O and dynamics in moisture sources and atmospheric circulation in seasonal and interannual timescales. Categorization of 7 groups of moisture sources was performed, among which oceanic moisture sources presented lower δ18O in precipitation than continental moisture sources. The results show that seasonal variations of precipitation δ18O were caused by changes of moisture sources. In summer, moisture from proximal oceans dominated vapour transport to Beijing due to increasing monsoon strength and resulted in a relatively small variation of precipitation δ18O. At the interannual timescale, the variations of δ18O in summer precipitation were related to dynamics in oceanic moistures, showing depleted values when the contribution of oceanic moistures, especially the proportion of long‐distance oceanic moisture, was high. Further analysis indicated that changes of oceanic moisture sources were controlled by the strength of summer monsoons. These findings address the complexity of moisture sources in midlatitude monsoon areas and suggest that isotopic signals in precipitation have the potential to deduce changes in moisture sources and atmospheric circulation and can therefore serve for palaeoclimate reconstruction.  相似文献   

16.
The 2010 boreal summer marked a worldwide abnormal climate. An unprecedented heat wave struck East Asia in July and August 2010. In addition to this, the tropical Indian Ocean was abnormally warm during the summer of 2010. Several heavy rainfall events and associated floods were also reported in the Indian monsoon region. During the season, the monsoon trough (an east–west elongated area of low pressure) was mostly located south of its normal position and monsoon low pressure systems moved south of their normal tracks. This resulted in an uneven spatial distribution with above-normal rainfall over peninsular and Northwest India, and deficient rainfall over central and northeastern parts of India, thus prediction (and simulation) of such anomalous climatic summer season is important. In this context, evolution of vertical moist thermodynamic structure associated with Indian summer monsoon 2010 is studied using regional climate model, reanalysis and satellite observations. This synergised approach is the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. The model-simulated fields (pressure, temperature, winds and precipitation) are comparable with the respective in situ and reanalysis fields, both in intensity and geographical distribution. The correlation coefficient between model and observed precipitation is 0.5 and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is 4.8 mm day?1. Inter-comparison of model-simulated fields with satellite observations reveals that the midtropospheric temperature [Water vapour mixing ratio (WVMR)] has RMSE of 0.5 K (1.6 g kg?1), whereas the surface temperature (WVMR) has RMSE of 3.4 K (2.2 g kg?1). Similarly, temporal evolution of vertical structure of temperature with rainfall over central Indian region reveals that the baroclinic nature of monsoon is simulated by the model. The midtropospheric warming associated with rainfall is captured by the model, whereas the model failed to capture the surface response to high and low rainfall events. The model has strong water vapour loading in the whole troposphere, but weaker coherent response with rainfall compared to observations. Thus, strong water vapour loading and overestimation of rainfall are reported in the model. This study put forward that the discrepancy in the model-simulated structure may be reduced by assimilation of satellite observations.  相似文献   

17.
Based on satellite data and the estimated inversion strength (EIS) derived by Wood et al. (2006), a feasible and uncomplicated stratocumulus scheme is proposed, referred to as EIS scheme. It improves simulation of cloud radiative forcing (CRF) in the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG version 2 (GAMIL2.0) model. When compared with the original lower troposphere stability (LTS) scheme, the EIS scheme reproduces more reasonable climatology distributions of clouds and CRF. The parameterization partly corrects CRF underestimation at mid and high latitudes and overestimation in the convective region. Such improvements are achieved by neglecting the effect of free-tropospheric stratification changes that follow a cooler moist adiabat at middle and high latitude, thereby improving simulated cloudiness. The EIS scheme also improves simulation of the CRF interannual variability. The positive net CRF and negative stratiform anomaly in the East Asian and western North Pacific monsoon regions (EAWNPMR) are well simulated. The EIS scheme is more sensitive to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than the LTS. Therefore, under the effect of a warmer SSTA in the EAWNPMR, the EIS generates a stronger negative stratiform response, which reduces radiative heating in the low and mid troposphere, in turn producing strong subsidence and negative anomalies of both moisture and cloudiness. Consequent decreases in cloud reflection and shading effects ultimately improve simulation of incoming surface shortwave radiative fluxes and CRF. Because of the stronger subsidence, a stronger anomalous anticyclone over the Philippines Sea is simulated by the EIS run, which leads to a better positive precipitation anomaly in eastern China during ENSO winter.  相似文献   

18.
青藏高原季节冻融过程与东亚大气环流关系的研究   总被引：34，自引：1，他引：34       下载免费PDF全文
利用青藏高原46个气象站的最大冻土深度观测资料、中国160个气象站降水资料和NCAR/NCEP资料，对青藏高原冻土的季节性冻融过程进行合成分析，发现青藏高原土壤的季节冻融过程对青藏高原上空及东亚大气环流有显著的影响，在高原最大冻土深度较小的年份中，7月份，南亚高压强且偏西，500hPa印度低压强，西太平洋副热带高压弱且偏东，高原南部的东风较强；最大冻土深度较大的年份，南亚高压弱且偏东，印度低压弱，西太平洋副热带高压强且偏西. 在不同的冻融年份，850hPa上纬向风的差异显著区反映了西南季风的活动. 最大冻土深度与中国夏季（7月份）降水有3条显著相关带，雨带的分布与中国夏季平均雨带相吻合. 由此，青藏高原季节冻融过程引起的水热变化是影响东亚气候的一个重要外源.  相似文献   

19.
This study examines the short-range forecast accuracy of the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) as applied to the July 2006 episode of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the model's sensitivity to the choice of different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), namely Betts-Miller, Grell (GR) and Kain-Fritsch (KF). The results showed that MM5 day 1 (0–24 h prediction) and day 2 (24–48 h prediction) forecasts using all three CPSs overpredicted monsoon rainfall over the Indian landmass, with the larger overprediction seen in the day 2 forecasts. Among the CPSs, the rainfall distribution over the Indian landmass was better simulated in forecasts using the KF scheme. The KF scheme showed better skill in predicting the area of rainfall for most of the rainfall thresholds. The root mean square error (RMSE) in day 1 and day 2 rainfall forecasts using different CPSs showed that rainfall simulated using the KF scheme agreed better with the observed rainfall. As compared to other CPSs, simulation using the GR scheme showed larger RMSE in wind speed prediction at 850 and 200 hPa over the Indian landmass. MM5 24-h temperature forecasts at 850 hPa with all the CPSs showed a warm bias of the order of 1 K over the Indian landmass and the bias doubled in 48-h model forecasts. The mean error in temperature prediction at 850 hPa over the Indian region using the KF scheme was comparatively smaller for all the forecast intervals. The model with all the CPSs overpredicted humidity at 850 hPa. The improved prediction by MM5 with the KF scheme is well complemented by the smaller error shown by the KF scheme in vertical distribution of heat and mean moist static energy in the lower troposphere. In this study, the KF scheme which explicitly resolve the downdrafts in the cloud column tended to produce more realistic precipitation forecasts as compared to other schemes which did not explicitly incorporate downdraft effects. This is an important result especially given that the area covered by monsoon-precipitating systems is largely from stratiform-type clouds which are associated with strong downdrafts in the lower levels. This result is useful for improving the treatment of cumulus convection in numerical models over the ISM region.  相似文献   

20.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of precipitation physics in a general circulation model (GCM) on a simulated climate. Experiments are performed under the single column model (SCM) framework to examine basic features and under the general circulation model framework to investigate the impact on seasonal simulation. The SCM simulation shows that convection processes in the model have a considerable influence on the change in vertical thermodynamic structure, resulting in a change in precipitation, whereas in the GCM framework stratiform precipitation physics play a distinct role in changing the atmospheric structure. The GCM experiments also show that the overall reduction of precipitation in simulations with prognostic stratiform precipitation physics is highly related to changes in cloudiness and corresponding changes in radiative flux, which in turn leads to the reduction of convective activities.  相似文献   

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