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1.
Hurricane winds present a significant hazard for coastal infrastructure. An estimate of the local risk of extreme wind speeds is made using a new method that combines historical hurricane records with a deterministic wind field model. The method is applied to Santa Rosa Island located in the northwestern panhandle region of Florida, USA. Firstly, a hurricane track is created for a landfall location on the island that represents the worst-case scenario for Eglin Air Force Base (EAFB). The track is based on averaging the paths of historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the landfall location. Secondly, an extreme-value statistical model is used to estimate 100-year wind speeds at locations along the average track based again on historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the track locations. Thirdly, the 100-year wind speeds together with information about hurricane size and forward speed are used as input to the HAZUS hurricane wind field model to produce a wind swath across EAFB. Results show a 100-year hurricane wind gust on Santa Rosa Island of 58 (±5) m?s?1 (90% CI). A 100-year wind gust at the same location based on a 105-year simulation of hurricanes is lower at 55?m?s?1, but within the 90% confidence limits. Based on structural damage functions and building stock data for the region, the 100-year hurricane wind swath results in $574 million total loss to residential and commercial buildings, not including military infrastructure, with 25% of all buildings receiving at least some damage. This methodology may be applied to other coastal areas and adapted to predict extreme winds and their impacts under climate variability and change.  相似文献   

2.
胡帅  吴波  周天军 《大气科学》2019,43(4):831-845
印度洋偶极子（IOD）是热带印度洋年际变率主导模态之一,对于区域乃至全球气候有重要影响。准确预报IOD对于短期气候预测具有重要意义。中国科学院大气物理研究所最近建立了近期气候预测系统IAP-DecPreS,其初始化方案采用“集合最优插值—分析增量更新”（EnOI-IAU）方案,能够同化观测的海洋次表层温度廓线资料。本文分析了IAP-DecPreS季节回报试验对IOD的回报技巧,重点比较了全场同化和异常场同化两种初始化策略下预测系统对IOD的回报技巧。分析表明,8月起报秋季IOD,无论从确定性预报还是概率性预报的角度,基于全场同化的回报试验技巧均高于异常场同化的回报试验。对于5月起报的秋季IOD,基于两种初始化策略的回报试验技巧相当。研究发现,全场同化策略相对于异常场的优势主要源于它提高了对伴随ENSO发生的IOD的预报技巧。ENSO遥强迫触发的热带东印度洋“风—蒸发—SST”正反馈过程是IOD发展和维持的关键。采用全场同化策略的回报结果能够更好地模拟出IOD发展过程中ENSO遥强迫产生的异常降水场和异常风场的空间分布特征;而采用异常场同化策略,模拟的异常降水场和风场偏差较大。导致两种初始化策略预测结果技巧差异的主要原因是,全场同化能够减小模式对热带印度洋气候平均态降水固有的模拟偏差,从而提升了热带印度洋对ENSO遥强迫响应的模拟能力。而异常场同化由于在同化过程中保持了模式固有的气候平均态,因此模拟的热带印度洋对ENSO遥强迫的响应存在与模式自由积分类似的模拟偏差。  相似文献   

3.
We developed an operationally applicable land-only daily high-resolution (5?km?×?5?km) gridding method for station observations of minimum and maximum 2?m temperature (T min/T max) for Europe (WMO region VI). The method involves two major steps: (1) the generation of climatological T min/T max maps for each month of the year using block regression kriging, which considers the spatial variation explained by applied predictors; and (2) interpolation of transformed daily anomalies using block kriging, and combination of the resulting anomaly maps with climatological maps. To account for heterogeneous climatic conditions in the estimation of the statistical parameters, these steps were applied independently in overlapping climatic subregions, followed by an additional spatial merging step. Uncertainties in the gridded maps and the derived error maps were quantified: (a) by cross-validation; and (b) comparison with the T min/T max maps estimated in two regions having very dense temperature observation networks. The main advantages of the method are the high quality of the daily maps of T min/T max, the calculation of daily error maps and computational efficiency.  相似文献   

4.
Results from a first-time employment of the WRF regional climate model to climatological simulations in Europe are presented. The ERA-40 reanalysis (resolution 1°) has been downscaled to a horizontal resolution of 30 and 10?km for the period of 1961?C1990. This model setup includes the whole North Atlantic in the 30?km domain and spectral nudging is used to keep the large scales consistent with the driving ERA-40 reanalysis. The model results are compared against an extensive observational network of surface variables in complex terrain in Norway. The comparison shows that the WRF model is able to add significant detail to the representation of precipitation and 2-m temperature of the ERA-40 reanalysis. Especially the geographical distribution, wet day frequency and extreme values of precipitation are highly improved due to the better representation of the orography. Refining the resolution from 30 to 10?km further increases the skill of the model, especially in case of precipitation. Our results indicate that the use of 10-km resolution is advantageous for producing regional future climate projections. Use of a large domain and spectral nudging seems to be useful in reproducing the extreme precipitation events due to the better resolved synoptic scale features over the North Atlantic, and also helps to reduce the large regional temperature biases over Norway. This study presents a high-resolution, high-quality climatological data set useful for reference climate impact studies.  相似文献   

5.
Summary  Six methods were used to interpolate the monthly mean climatological data from German climate stations to three Bavarian forest climate stations. The observed forest climatological data at the Bavarian forest climate stations were used as the reference data to which the interpolated data were compared. The results show that, for monthly mean daily maximum temperature at valley and plain forest climate stations, each of the six interpolation methods can give accurate estimates. For monthly mean daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, air temperature and water vapor pressure at mountain forest climate stations, topographically aided interpolation can give the most accurate estimates. Barnes interpolation combined with empirical transfer functions can give accurate estimates forall climate variables at the plain and valley forest climate stations, and it can also give accurate estimates for monthly mean wind speed and monthly precipitation at the mountain forest climate station. The empirical transfer functions are very important for estimating the forest climatological data. These transfer functions will be used for reconstruction of long-term forest climatological data in Bavaria. Received September 9, 1998 Revised May 21, 1999  相似文献   

6.
During the last decades, wildfires have received growing attention because of their major impact on the natural and anthropogenic infrastructures worldwide. The present paper focuses on investigating the relationship between the meteorological/climatological conditions and wildfires in Greece on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. This is performed through the identification of the mean surface temperature, the sea-level pressure, and the absolute humidity anomalies during wildfires at 26 meteorological stations covering both maritime and land environments in the Greek domain and the subsequent construction of the derived GIS surface contour maps. A case study analysis through composite anomaly maps of temperature, pressure, precipitable water, 500-hPa geopotential height, specific humidity, and vector wind is also performed. It is concluded that positive surface temperature, absolute/specific humidity, 500-hPa geopotential height, and vector wind anomalies are observed during wildfires while sea-level pressures are anomalously negative. Furthermore, western regions display lower magnitude anomalies compared to the more central and central-eastern regions during wildfires. The above meteorological/climatological findings in conjunction with medium range to seasonal climate forecasts could be used by wildfire risk managers to provide increased wildfire prediction accuracy and thus benefit many aspects of the natural and built environment.  相似文献   

7.
We have examined the mechanisms of a multidecadal oscillation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in a 335-year simulation of the Climate Forecast System (CFS), the climate prediction model developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Both the mean and seasonal cycle of the AMOC in the CFS are generally consistent with observation-based estimates with a maximum northward volume transport of 16?Sv (106?m3/s) near 35°N at 1.2?km. The annual mean AMOC shows an intermittent quasi 30-year oscillation. Its dominant structure includes a deep anomalous overturning cell (referred to as the anomalous AMOC) with amplitude of 0.6?Sv near 35°N and an anomalous subtropical cell (STC) of shallow overturning spanning across the equator. The mechanism for the oscillation includes a positive feedback between the anomalous AMOC and surface wind stress anomalies in mid-latitudes and a negative feedback between the anomalous STC and AMOC. A strong AMOC is associated with warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) centered near 45°N, which generates an anticyclonic easterly surface wind anomaly. This anticyclonic wind anomaly enhances the regional downwelling and reinforces the anomalous AMOC. In the mean time, a wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback extends the warm SSTA to the tropics and induces a cyclonic wind stress anomaly there, which drives a tropical upwelling and weakens the STC north of the equator. The STC anomaly, in turn, drives a cold upper ocean heat content anomaly (HCA) in the northern tropical Atlantic and weakens the meridional heat transport from the tropics to the mid-latitude through an anomalous southward western boundary current. The anomalous STC transports cold HCA from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes, weakening the mid-latitude deep overturning.  相似文献   

8.
In this study, sensitivity experiments were conducted with the Zebiak-Cane ocean-atmosphere coupled model forced by the wind stress anomaly from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data to study the impacts of eastern Pacific warm pool on the formation and development of ENSO events. The effects of climatological mean sea surface temperature of the warm pool on forecast skill during the ENSO events of 1982–1999 are more considerable that those of climatological mean meridional winds and ocean currents. The forecast skill for the 1997/1998 El Ni?o event is characterized by sensitivity to climatological mean sea surface temperature and anomalies of northerly winds and currents. The forecast skill is found insensitive to climatological mean northerly meridional winds and currents.  相似文献   

9.
The methods used in an earlier study focusing on the province of Ontario, Canada, were adapted for this current study to expand the study area over eastern Canada where the infrastructure is at risk of being impacted by freezing rain. To estimate possible impacts of climate change on future freezing rain events, a three-step process was used in the study: (1) statistical downscaling, (2) synoptic weather typing, and (3) future projections. A regression-based downscaling approach, constructed using different regression methods for different meteorological variables, was used to downscale the outputs of eight general circulation models to each of 42 hourly observing stations over eastern Canada. Using synoptic weather typing (principal components analysis, a clustering procedure, discriminant function analysis), the freezing rain-related weather types under historical climate (1958–2007) and future downscaled climate conditions (2016–2035, 2046–2065, 2081–2100) were identified for all selected stations. The potential changes in the frequency of future daily freezing rain events can be projected quantitatively by comparing future and historical frequencies of freezing rain-related weather types.

The modelled results show that eastern Canada could experience more freezing rain events late this century during the coldest months (i.e., December to February) than the averaged historical conditions. Conversely, during the warmest months of the study season (i.e., November and April in the southern regions, October in the northern regions), eastern Canada could experience less freezing rain events late this century. The increase in the number of daily freezing rain events in the future for the coldest months is projected to be progressively greater from south to north or from southwest to northeast across eastern Canada. The relative decrease in magnitude of future daily freezing rain events in the warmest months is projected to be much less than the relative increase in magnitude in the coldest months.  相似文献   

10.
Low visibility episodes (visibility < 1000 m) were studied by applying the anomaly-based weather analysis method. A regional episode of low visibility associated with a coastal fog that occurred from 27 to 28 January 2016 over Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, Zhejiang Province, East China, was first examined. Some basic features from the anomalous weather analysis for this case were identified: (1) the process of low visibility mainly caused by coastal fog was a direct response to anomalous temperature inversion in the lower troposphere, with a warm center around the 925 hPa level, which was formed by a positive geopotential height (GPH) anomaly in the upper troposphere and a negative GPH anomaly near the surface; (2) the positive humidity anomaly was conducive to the formation of coastal fog and rain; (3) regional coastal fog formed at the moment when the southwesterly wind anomalies transferred to northeasterly wind anomalies. Other cases confirmed that the low visibility associated with coastal fog depends upon low-level inversion, a positive humidity anomaly, and a change of wind anomalies from southwesterly to northeasterly, rain and stratus cloud amount. The correlation coefficients of six-hourly inversion, 850?925-hPa-averaged temperature, GPH and humidity anomalies against visibility are ?0.31, 0.40 and ?0.48, respectively, reaching the 99% confidence level in the first half-years of 2015 and 2016. By applying the anomaly-based weather analysis method to medium-range model output products, such as ensemble prediction systems, the anomalous temperature?pressure pattern and humidity?wind pattern can be used to predict the process of low visibility associated with coastal fog at several days in advance.  相似文献   

11.
In this study, regional climate changes for seventy years (1980–2049) over East Asia and the Korean Peninsula are investigated using the Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario via a high-resolution regional climate model, and the impact of global warming on extreme climate events over the study area is investigated. According to future climate predictions for East Asia, the annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.8°C and precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day?1 (2030–2049). The maximum wind intensity of tropical cyclones increases in the high wind categories, and the intra-seasonal variation of tropical cyclone occurrence changes in the western North Pacific. The predicted increase in surface air temperature results from increased longwave radiations at the surface. The predicted decrease in precipitation is caused primarily by northward shift of the monsoon rain-band due to the intensified subtropical high. In the nested higher-resolution (20 km) simulation over the Korean Peninsula, annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C and annual mean precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day?1. Future surface air temperature over the Korean Peninsula increases in all seasons due to surface temperature warming, which leads to changes in the length of the four seasons. Future total precipitation over the Korean Peninsula is decreased, but the intensity and occurrence of heavy precipitation events increases. The regional climate changes information from this study can be used as a fruitful reference in climate change studies over East Asia and the Korean peninsula.  相似文献   

12.
Use of ocean data assimilation in meteorological applications is expected to reveal the influence of cloud-covered oceanic mesoscale processes on wintertime weather and climate in coastal areas. In particular, eddy-resolving Ocean Circulation Model (OCM) data assimilation that reproduces seasonally persistent oceanic mesoscale eddies is useful when simulating coastal precipitation. In the present study, the OCM-assimilation sea surface temperature (SST) is applied to a long-term atmospheric simulation over the Japan/East Sea area in the 2004/2005 winter season (December–February, DJF), to investigate seasonal and daily influences of oceanic mesoscale eddies on precipitation. The simulated winter precipitation is improved by the OCM assimilation via the DJF evaporation around a cold tongue. The strong intrusion of the southeast-directed cold tongue reduces the degree of overestimation by coastal precipitation simulations in December and January. In contrast, the ocean assimilation barely improves the simulation results in February because of weak intrusion of the cold tongue. In December and January, an abruptly large anomaly of northwesterly surface wind (> 1 m s?1) resulting from the OCM assimilation often influences 3-hour precipitation in the downstream area of the cold tongue. In contrast, the slowly-varying anomaly of evaporation does not necessarily lead to daily precipitation anomalies, although the DJF evaporation anomaly is important in the DJF precipitation.  相似文献   

13.
利用1961—2020年中国区域2089个地面观测站资料,分析了1991—2020年和1981—2010年新、旧气候态下,平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和降水量等变量的空间变化特征,探讨对气候距平值、极端事件等评估结果的影响。结果表明：新气候态下,全国三类气温年和季节平均均一致升高,年降水增加,空间上气温偏高（低）、降水偏多（少）的特征将弱（强）化;华北东部、华东中部和北部以及青海西南部的年平均风速和日照时数距平增加;极端高温年减少,低温年增多,其中平均气温和最低气温受到的影响较最高气温更大;夏季南北方两条雨带极端强降水年的发生概率降低,冬季东北中部和南部、华北、华东北部、西北东部极端弱降水年概率显著增加;全国超过一半的站点极端日高温、低温和强降水事件的历史频次发生改变;新气候态还减弱了极端日高温事件的增速,加快了极端日低温事件的降速。  相似文献   

14.
Nonlinear projections of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index onto North American winter (December–March) 500-mb geopotential height (Z500) and surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies reveal a pronounced asymmetry in the atmospheric patterns associated with positive and negative phases of the AO. In a linear view, the Z500 anomaly field associated with positive AO resembles a positive North Atlantic Oscillation pattern with statistically significant positive and negative anomalies stretching zonally into central-eastern USA and Canada, respectively, resulting in a cold climate anomaly over northeastern and eastern Canada, Alaska and the west coast of USA, and a warm climate anomaly over the rest of the continent. By contrast, the nonlinear behavior, mainly a quadratic association with AO, which is most apparent when the amplitude of the AO index is large, has the same spatial pattern and sign for both positive and negative values of the index. The nonlinear pattern reveals negative Z500 anomalies over the west coast of USA and the North Atlantic and positive Z500 anomalies at higher latitudes centered over the Gulf of Alaska and northeastern Canada accompanied by cooler than normal climate over the USA and southwestern Canada and warmer than normal climate over other regions of the continent. A similar analysis is conducted on the data from the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis second generation coupled general circulation model. The nonlinear patterns of North American Z500 and SAT anomalies associated with the AO in the model simulation are generally consistent with the observational results, thereby confirming the robustness of the nonlinear behavior of North American winter climate with respect to the AO in a climate simulation that is completely independent of the observations.  相似文献   

15.
The output of several multi-century simulations with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is examined with respect to the variability of global storm activity in winter on time scales of decades and longer. The frequency of maximum wind speed events within a grid box, using the lower limits on the Beaufort wind speed scale of 8 and 10 Bft as thresholds, is taken as the characteristic parameter. Two historical climate runs with time-dependent forcing of the last five centuries, one control simulation, and three climate change experiments are considered. The storm frequency shows no trend until recently. Global maps for the industrially influenced period hardly differ from pre-industrial maps, even though significant temperature anomalies temporarily emerge in the historical runs. Two indicators describing the frequency and the regional shift of storm activity are determined. In historical times they are decoupled from temperature. Variations in solar and volcanic forcing in the historical simulations as well as in greenhouse gas concentrations for the industrially influenced period are not related to variations in storm activity. Also, anomalous temperature regimes like the Late Maunder Minimum are not associated with systematic storm conditions. In the climate change experiments, a poleward shift of storm activity is found in all three storm track regions. Over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, storm activity increases, while it decreases over the Pacific Ocean. In contrast to the historical runs, and with the exception of the North Pacific storm frequency index, the storm indices parallel the development of temperature, exceeding the 2 σ-range of pre-industrial variations in the early twenty-first century.  相似文献   

16.
The spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies during five 30-yr warm periods of 691-720, 1231-1260, 1741-1770, 1921-1950, and 1981-2000 were investigated using a dryness/wetness grading dataset covering 48 stations from Chinese historical documents and 22 precipitation proxy series from natural archives. It was found that the North China Plain (approximately 35 -40 N, east of 105 E) was dry in four warm periods within the centennial warm epochs of 600-750, the Medieval Warm Period (about 900-1300) and after 1900. A wet condition prevailed over most of China during 1741-1770, a 30-yr warm peak that occurred during the Little Ice Age (about 1650-1850). The spatial pattern of the precipitation anomaly in 1981-2000 over East China (25 -40 N, east of 105 E) is roughly consistent with that in 1231-1260, but a difference in the precipitation anomaly appeared over the Tibetan Plateau. The spatial patterns of the precipitation anomalies over China varied between all five 30-yr warm periods, which implies that the matching pattern between temperature and precipitation change is multiform, and the precipitation anomaly could be positive or negative when a decadal warm climate occurs in different climate epochs. This result may provide a primary reference for the mechanism detection and climate simulation of the precipitation anomaly of the future warm climate.  相似文献   

17.
Synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns drive wind forcing of dynamic and thermodynamic processes in Arctic sea ice. Synoptic typing and compositing are common techniques used to identify a limited number of prevailing weather classifications that govern a region's climate. This work investigates atmospheric circulation patterns (surface to 250?hPa) for the southern Beaufort Sea and corresponding surface wind regimes within each synoptic type. Significant changes (p?<?0.05) in relative frequencies of a number of synoptic types were attributed to declining summer sea ice. Corresponding upper-level circulation anomalies show increasingly meridional atmospheric circulation. Synoptic Types 9 and 11 were identified as key October-November-December circulation features that represent deepening of the Aleutian low with concomitant strengthening of pressure gradients over the southern Beaufort Sea. Classification of coastal-based wind observations shows a shift towards increased easterly wind forcing. A case study of surface wind data from the CCGS Amundsen (2009–2011) provided a direct example of the surface wind regime within the marginal ice zone within each synoptic type during a period of reduced Arctic sea-ice cover.  相似文献   

18.
In this study, we analyse the uncertainty of the effect of enhanced greenhouse gas conditions on windiness projected by an ensemble of regional model simulations driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961–1990 and 2071–2100, were prepared by the Hadley Centre based on the IPCC SRES/A2 scenario. The basic data sets consist of simulated daily maximum and daily mean wind speed fields (over land) from the PRUDENCE data archive at the Danish Meteorological Institute. The main focus is on the results from the standard 50 km-resolution runs of eight regional models. The best parameter for determining possible future changes in extreme wind speeds and possible change in the number of storm events is maximum daily wind speed. It turned out during this study that the method for calculating maximum daily wind speed differs among the regional models. A comparison of simulated winds with observations for the control period shows that models without gust parameterisation are not able to realistically capture high wind speeds. The two models with gust parametrization estimate an increase of up to 20% of the number of storm peak (defined as gusts?≥?8 Bft in this paper) events over Central Europe in the future. In order to use a larger ensemble of models than just the two with gust parameterisation, we also look at the 99th percentile of daily mean wind speed. We divide Europe into eight sub-regions (e.g., British Isles, Iberian Peninsula, NE Europe) and investigate the inter-monthly variation of wind over these regions as well as differences between today’s climate and a possible future climate. Results show differences and similarities between the sub-regions in magnitude, spread, and seasonal tendencies. The model ensemble indicates a possible increase in future mean daily wind speed during winter months, and a decrease during autumn in areas influenced by North Atlantic extra-tropical cyclones.  相似文献   

19.
Knowledge of the likely future wind, wave and surge climate in Liverpool Bay is of importance for coastal flood defence management. We examine a 140-year time series (1960–2100) of wind and wave model projections at the WaveNet buoy location in Liverpool Bay and also of surge model projection at two ports in Liverpool Bay, namely Liverpool and Heysham. To this end we use model projections from the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) programme. We use a medium emissions scenario ensemble from the HadCM3 climate model sensitivity tests. A continental shelf model (CS3) with ~12 km resolution was used to separately simulate the waves and the surge. The models are forced by hourly wind and pressure data from the Met Office (Hadley Centre) regional climate model (RCM). Swell wave boundary conditions are generated over the full Atlantic using global climate model (GCM) winds. Analysis of significant changes in the statistics over time shows that there is little change in extreme wave and surge conditions in Liverpool Bay. Although there is a slight increase in the severity of the most extreme events, the frequency of extreme wind and wave events is slightly reduced, while the frequency of extreme surge events slightly increases over the 140-year period. From the model projections, we find that the trends in the local wind are directly reflected in the wave field within Liverpool Bay. The trends in the skew surge projections deviate slightly from those in the wind patterns.  相似文献   

20.
Shanghai experienced the longest rainy days in 2018/2019 winter since 1988. The physical cause of such an unusual climate condition was investigated through the diagnosis of observational data. From a seasonal perspective, a long persistent rainy winter was often associated with an El Ni?o condition in the equatorial Pacific. This abnormal oceanic condition induces a remote teleconnection pattern with pronounced low-level southerly anomalies over East China.The wind anomalies transported moisture from tropical oceans and caused persistent rainfall in East Asia. Meanwhile, the local rainfall time series exhibited a strong quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO). Three persistent rainy events were identified in the 2018/2019 winter and they all occurred during the active phase of the QBWO. The first two events were associated with a low pressure anomaly west of Shanghai. Southerly anomalies associated with the low pressure system advected high mean moisture into central eastern China, leading to the persistent rainfall there.The third event was associated with a high pressure anomaly in lower troposphere to the east of Shanghai, which induced anomalous southerlies to its west, favoring the occurrence of rainfall in Shanghai. The result suggests the importance of high-frequency variability in affecting seasonal rainfall anomalies.  相似文献   

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