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1.
基于2012年9月—2013年12月中南半岛外海累计16个月的长时间序列潜标观测数据,结合AVISO海表面高度异常（sea level anomaly,SLA）数据,首次详细分析了中南半岛外海典型中尺度涡的运动规律和垂向特征及其对环境水文特征的影响,揭示了该海域深层海流的时间变化特征。在观测期间共捕捉到3次中尺度涡过程,中尺度涡对站位所在海域主温跃层深度变化的最大影响振幅可达50 m。研究发现：1)观测站位所在海域各深度的温度异常时间变化与站位SLA时间变化的相关性随深度增加逐渐减弱。2)上层和中层的海水流动受中尺度涡影响显著。1 500 m和2 000 m的深层环流主要表现为季节变化;在强中尺度涡暖涡经过期间,中尺度涡能影响到1 500 m的环流场,同时出现30 d周期震荡。2 000 m流场则不受中尺度涡影响。3)中南半岛以东南海1 500 m处深层海流月平均流速夏季大于冬季,月平均可达3～5 cm·s-1;2 000 m处深层海流最大流速出现在冬季,月平均可达2～6 cm·s-1。深层海流受潮汐影响显著,潮汐作用主要影响深层海流东西向流速的变化。 相似文献
2.
采用动态合成、带通滤波等方法,通过对冬季黑潮延伸区暖、冷两个中尺度海洋涡旋的分析,研究了大气对中尺度海洋涡旋的响应特征。结果表明,海表温度（SST）与近海面风速的正相关关系在涡旋的动态合成图上清晰可见,暖（冷）涡上空对应10 m风速的极大（小）值,即海洋对大气的强迫作用在日时间尺度上表现显著;SST高低值中心基本对应10 m风无辐散区,暖（冷）涡上空为异常正（负）涡度分布;暖（冷）涡上空潜热、感热通量增大（减小）,降低（增大）大气稳定度,从而加强（减弱）边界层垂直混合作用,使得海洋大气边界层增厚（变薄）。暖（冷）涡旋上空对应摩擦速度极大（小）值,反映了湍流粘性力在高（低）海温中心增大（减小）的特征,表明动量垂直混合机制在中小尺度海气相互作用中起着主要作用。中尺度海洋涡旋能够影响大气瞬变扰动,大气瞬变扰动强度在暖（冷）涡下游上空出现极大（小）值,该影响不仅表现在海洋大气边界层,在自由大气中低层也有较为清晰的反映。此外,从能量转换的角度入手,发现斜压能量转换在中尺度海洋涡旋影响大气瞬变扰动强度中贡献明显。 相似文献
3.
Scott Curtis 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(11-12):2209-2225
Seasonal (three-month average) climate forecasts have advanced due in large part to improved modeling of the ENSO phenomenon. Long-range monthly forecasts are more problematic because of internal atmospheric variability. Further, it is often assumed that monthly precipitation anomalies are representative of the overall seasonal anomaly. This is not always the case as, according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project Version 2.1 data set, up to 20% of areas demonstrating some significant teleconnection to ENSO show El Ni?o minus La Ni?a differences of one sign in the middle month and the opposite sign in the adjacent months. Most interestingly, this maximum percentage occurs in December–January–February (DJF), a time when the ENSO boundary forcing is strongest. These oscillatory DJF seasons also cluster in space—with significant positive–negative-positive differences in the western South Tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) and negative–positive–negative differences in the far eastern STIO. Representative gauges confirm that these precipitation patterns have been associated with ENSO events since 1951, and pentad precipitation data confirm that they are confined to DJF and evolve at the monthly scale. The abrupt end of the Indian Ocean Dipole mode in January, an increase in the importance of local SST anomalies in February, and an ENSO-induced mid-latitude Rossby wave during austral summer combine to generate the cross-basin precipitation gradient around 15°S. 相似文献
4.
Wintertime climatic trends in the western Himalayas 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Northern Indian rivers are primarily fed by wintertime (December, January, February—DJF) precipitation, in the form of snow—yielded by eastward moving synoptic weather systems called Western Disturbances (WDs), over the western Himalayas (WH). This accumulated snow melts during ablation period. In the context of today’s warming atmosphere, it is imperative to study the changes in the temperature and precipitation patterns over the WH to assess the impact of global warming on climatic conditions of the region. Keeping that in mind, observational analysis of temperature and precipitation fields is planned. In the present study various climatic indices are analyzed based on wintertime (DJF) data of 30?years (1975–2006) obtained from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE), India. Results indicate enhancement in the surface air temperature across the WH. Percent number of warm (cold) days have increased (decreased) during 1975–2006 over the WH. Further analysis of precipitation reveals slightly decreasing but inconsistent trends. 相似文献
5.
The South China Sea(SCS) is an eddy-active area. Composite analyses based on 438 mesoscale ocean eddies during 2000–2012 revealed the status of the atmospheric boundary layer is influenced remarkably by such eddies. The results showed cold-core cyclonic(warm-core anticyclonic) eddies tend to cool(warm) the overlying atmosphere and cause surface winds to decelerate(accelerate). More than 5% of the total variance of turbulent heat fluxes, surface wind speed and evaporation rate are induced by mesoscale eddies. Furthermore, mesoscale eddies locally affect the columnar water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rain rate. Dynamical analyses indicated that both variations of atmospheric boundary layer stability and sea level pressure are responsible for atmospheric anomalies over mesoscale eddies. To reveal further details about the mechanisms of atmospheric responses to mesoscale eddies, atmospheric manifestations over a pair of cold and warm eddies in the southwestern SCS were simulated. Eddy-induced heat flux anomalies lead to changes in atmospheric stability. Thus, anomalous turbulence kinetic energy and friction velocity arise over the eddy dipole, which reduce(enhance) the vertical momentum transport over the cold(warm) eddy, resulting in the decrease(increase) of sea surface wind. Diagnoses of the model's momentum balance suggested that wind speed anomalies directly over the eddy dipole are dominated by vertical mixing terms within the atmospheric boundary layer, while wind anomalies on the edges of eddies are produced by atmospheric pressure gradient forces and atmospheric horizontal advection terms. 相似文献
6.
At least two main oceanic fronts (the subarctic and subtropical fronts) exist in the North Pacific. Especially in the subtropical frontal zone (STFZ), the sea subsurface temperature gradient is significantly larger than that of the surface layer in winter. Subseasonal interaction between the subsurface subtropical front and overlaying atmosphere is revealed by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of oceanic temperature gradient. The first EOF mode mainly corresponds to the atmosphere-to-ocean influences. With the enhanced westerly wind, a cold sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) appears and then passes down to affect the subsurface ocean. However, the second EOF mode indicates the ocean-to-atmosphere forcing. For the second mode, cold oceanic temperature anomaly generates in the subsurface layer and passes up, which makes the SST gradient increasing. Due to the increasing atmospheric baroclinicity, the enhanced westerly wind leads to more heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere, which results in a colder SSTA and a larger SST gradient in the STFZ. Therefore, a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback begins to maintain in the mid-latitude in winter. 相似文献
7.
The Cold Tongue in the South China Sea during Boreal Winter and Its Interaction with the Atmosphere 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
A distinct cold tongue has recently been noticed in the South China Sea during the winter monsoon, with the cold tongue temperature minimum occurring in the January or February. This cold tongue shows significant links with the Maritime Continent’s rainfall during the winter period. The cold tongue and its interaction with the Maritime Continent’s weather were studied using Reynolds SST data, wind fields from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset and the quikSCAT dataset. In addition, rainfall from the GOES Prec... 相似文献
8.
Nageswararao M.M. Mohanty U.C. Dimri A.P. Osuri Krishna K. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(3-4):1247-1259
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) precipitation over northwest India (NWI) is mainly associated with the eastward moving mid-latitude synoptic... 相似文献
9.
在51年(1958-2008)西北太平洋区域海洋再分析CORA1.0产品的基础上,改进了模式配置和同化方法,研制了2009-18年的CORA产品并对其进行以下检验:(1)温盐和海表高度异常均方根误差分布检验;(2)35°N处温度断面分布检验;(3)再分析流场和表漂浮标轨迹对比检验.结果显示,2009-18年的CORA产品可以再现海洋要素长时间序列,时空多尺度的变化特征,为研究特征海洋现象和过程提供背景信息. 相似文献
10.
Western disturbances (WDs) are extratropical synoptic scale weather systems which cause significant precipitation over the Himalayas and surrounding areas during winter (December, January and February, DJF). Three intense WDs, 13–17 January 2002, 05–08 February 2002, and 11–13 February 2002, are chosen as two of the WDs are extensively studied by Hatwar et al. (Curr Sci 88:913–920, 2005) and one independent WD (Indian Meteorological Department, Delhi, Mausam 54(1):346–347, 2003) is considered. Firstly, it is planned to study model sensitivity with these WD cases, which are simulated with different combinations of cloud microphysics, planetary boundary layer and cumulus parameterization schemes in weather research and forecasting model to assess a better suite for the WD simulations. Sensitivity and error analyses carried out with different observations, show that the combination of Eta Ferrier or Eta Grid-scale cloud and precipitation microphysics scheme, Yonsei University scheme and Kain-Fritsch scheme has shown consistently lower error values. Further, the results suggest, that the model simulations of a WD capture the spatial distribution of precipitation, locations of low pressure region and the circulation patterns very well. It is observed that the WD system comprises of low pressure region in the vertical atmospheric column in form of a stationary surface low and a depression in the subtropical westerly jet moving eastwards. Further, the growth of convective cyclonic systems over the steep topographical region of the Himalayas is depicted by the increased positive vorticity and high values of CAPE, alluding to the propensity of WDs to cause orographically forced precipitation. WDs and associated precipitation show varied but significant impacts on the Indian winter climate such as snow cover variation and cold wave or fog conditions along with impact on winter crop production. 相似文献
11.
利用1948—2011年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料和1951—2010年我国160站降水量资料,研究了冬季亚洲—太平洋区域的大气遥相关及其与东亚冬季风和降水的关系。结果表明:冬季在亚洲—西太平洋与中、东太平洋中低纬度对流层上层扰动温度之间存在类似于夏季的亚洲—太平洋涛动 (APO) 现象,即当东亚中低纬度对流层中、上层偏暖时,中东太平洋中低纬度对流层中上层温度偏冷,反之亦然。冬季APO可以反映冬季亚洲—太平洋东西向热力差异强度变化,与夏季相比,冬季APO遥相关在亚洲的中心位置略偏南、偏东,且冬季APO与大气环流关系与夏季也有所不同;当冬季APO指数偏高时,对流层上层东亚大槽位置偏西,而东亚热带地区的高压向北伸展,导致我国南方对流层为深厚的异常反气旋系统所控制,此时南方地区对流层低层盛行异常的偏东北气流,并伴随水汽辐散和异常下沉运动,南方降水偏少;冬季APO指数与ENSO有紧密联系。 相似文献
12.
利用1981—2017年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和ECMWF再分析资料,研究了北美洲冬季高纬度冷空气对南美洲夏季降水异常的影响。结果表明,北美洲冬季高纬度冷空气通过影响向南越赤道气流的强弱,影响南美洲热带辐合带（intertropical convergence zone, ITCZ）位置和强度的变化,进一步引起南美洲天气的变化。北美洲冬季冷空气的南下过程能够引起80°～70°W的向南越赤道气流明显加强,导致2011年南美洲热带辐合带的位置异常偏南,强度异常偏强,是造成降水异常偏多的重要成因。通过相关分析发现北美洲冬季冷空气对南美洲ITCZ位置的影响更明显。 相似文献
13.
Oceanography is moving toward the construction of operational observing systems in coastal regions. The essential system design scheme is widely distributed measurements assimilated in computational simulation models, from which a variety of analysis products and forecasts are extracted and publicly disseminated. The detailed specifications for this system must be tested against the relevant oceanic phenomena. This essay surveys coastal physical phenomena in two categories. The more familiar ones are external tides, storm surges, river plumes, coastal topographic waves, upwelling and alongshore boundary currents, mesoscale instability eddies, and topographic contour currents and standing meanders. The phenomena with more recent attention are internal tides, surface fronts, submesoscale vortices, wakes, and littoral currents. Some illustrations are drawn from model simulations made without the aid of data assimilation. 相似文献
14.
The sensitivity of tropical Atlantic climate to upper ocean mixing is investigated using an ocean-only model and a coupled
ocean–atmosphere model. The upper ocean thermal structure and associated atmospheric circulation prove to be strongly related
to the strength of upper ocean mixing. Using the heat balance in the mixed layer it is shown that an excessively cold equatorial
cold tongue can be attributed to entrainment flux at the base of the oceanic mixed layer, that is too large. Enhanced entrainment
efficiency acts to deepen the mixed layer and causes strong reduction in the upper ocean divergence in the central equatorial
Atlantic. As a result, the simulated sea surface temperature, thermocline structure, and upwelling velocities are close to
the observed estimates. In the coupled model, the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reduces
when the entrainment efficiency in the oceanic mixed layer is enhanced. The precipitation rates decrease in the equatorial
region and increase along 10°N, resulting in a more realistic Atlantic Marine ITCZ. The reduced meridional surface temperature
gradient in the eastern tropical Atlantic prohibits the development of convective precipitation in the southeastern part of
the tropical Atlantic. Also, the simulation of tropical Atlantic variability as expressed in the meridional gradient mode
and the eastern cold tongue mode improves when the entrainment efficiency is enhanced. 相似文献
15.
P. L. S. Rao 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2003,83(1-2):19-33
Summary ?During winter season, atmospheric systems, which traverse from west to east interact with the Himalayan massif and produce
widespread rainfall over North India. In this study, we made an endeavor to examine the mean circulation features and large-scale
budgets of kinetic energy, heat and moisture over Himalayas and the adjoining domain for winter season. The time-mean circulation
is bifurcated into stable mean and transient eddy parts and examined the mean component of the circulation. The uninitialized
daily analyses of European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for five winter seasons (1986–90) comprising
December, January and February (DJF) have been used for the purpose.
We noticed certain zones of strong activity over Iran, Afghanistan, and West China regions during winter season. These are
characterized by intense vertical motions, cyclonic vorticity and adiabatic generation of kinetic energy. The features noticed
over these zones include strong horizontal convergence of heat and moisture. These zones are further characterized by massive
adiabatic conversion of available potential energy to kinetic energy. These features are conducive for the growth of atmospheric
systems, which traverse over the zones and produce precipitation subsequently.
Received November 16, 2000; revised February 5, 2002 相似文献
16.
利用欧洲中心全球客观分析的7层月平均位势高度距平资料,分别计算了相同格点上12—2月和6—8月各层高度距平之间的同时相关分布。结果表明:全球月平均位势高度距平场的正压、斜压性随地理区域变化很大,并有较明显的季节变化。其中12—2月对流层下部大气环流距平场在海洋上空有较好的相当正压性,在大陆上空正压性较差;对流层上部大气环流异常的正、斜压性分布与下部不同,赤道附近地区是相关系数的高值区,副热带地区主要是低值区;在对流层下部与上部大气环流距平场的相关系数分布图上,海洋上空并不总是高值区,在热带东太平洋区域就出现最强的负相关中心。与6—8月的相关系数分布型比较发现:特别明显的季节变化在非洲大陆和热带印度洋区域,12—2月为强正压区,6—8月为强斜压区。 相似文献
17.
采用高分辨率卫星和再分析资料,利用涡旋探测技术、滤波和合成分析等方法,对夏季北太平洋副热带地区中尺度海洋涡旋与大气的耦合关系进行了分析。结果表明:在日时间尺度上,海洋涡旋的海表温度（Sea SurfaceTemperature,简称SST）与海表风速之间不仅存在同位相的正相关关系,还存在反位相的负相关关系,即在涡旋这种中尺度上既存在海洋对大气的强迫,也存在大气对海洋的强迫。海表风速与SST同位相时,对暖（冷）涡来说,向上（下）的净热通量增强,云和降水增多（减少）;其海水温度异常和海流旋度较强,暖（冷）涡较为深厚,一定程度上表明了海洋对大气的强迫。海表风速与SST反位相时,对暖（冷）涡而言,当其处在正（负）位势高度异常、中低层相对湿度较小（大）、气温较高（低）的大气配置下,海表风速较小（大）;同时向下（上）净热通量增强,云和降水减少（增多）;涡旋海水温度异常和海流旋度较弱,这种暖（冷）涡较为浅薄;表明晴空（阴雨）条件下有利于暖（冷）涡的维持,一定程度上反映了大气对海洋的强迫作用。 相似文献
18.
基于湖南省89个气象站点1960—2013年的冬季降水观测数据,应用旋转经验正交函数（REOF）和层次聚类法（HCA）对湖南省冬季降水进行分区,并在分区的基础上,运用离散小波变换结合Mann-Kendall（MK）和Sequential MK（SQMK）的方法,讨论湖南省各分区冬季降水的变化趋势,并识别影响各自变化趋势的主周期分量。结果表明:（1）REOF的前3个旋转空间模态揭示湖南省冬季降水存在3个主要的异常敏感区:湘南、湘西北及湘中;（2）湖南省冬季降水在空间上可划分为5个一致性子区域:湘西北区（DJF1）、湘西-湘北区（DJF2）、湘西南-湘中区（DJF3）、湘南丘陵区（DJF4）和湘南山地区（DJF5）,且每一子区域从西南向东北呈带状展布;（3）近54年来,5个子区的冬季降水均表现出增加趋势但各区存在差异,其中,湘西南-湘中区、湘南丘陵区和湘南山地区均呈显著的上升趋势;（4）D1分量是影响湖南省不同区域冬季降水变化趋势的最占优的周期分量,揭示湖南省的冬季降水变化趋势存在准2年的主周期。 相似文献
19.
利用欧洲中心全球客观分析的7层月平均位势高度距平资料,分别计算了相同格点上12-2月和6-8月各层高度距平之间的同时相关分布。结果表明:全球月平均位势高度距平场的正压、斜压性随地理区域变化很大,并有较明显的季节变化。其中12-2月对流层下部大气环流距平场在海洋上空有较好的相当正压性,在大陆上空正压性较差;对流层上部大气环流异常的正、斜压性分布与下部不同,赤道附近地区是相关系数的高值区,副热带地区主要是低值区;在对流层下部与上部大气环流距平场的相关系数分布图上,海洋上空并不总是高值区,在热带东太平洋区域就出现最强的负相关中心。与6-8月的相关系数分布型比较发现:特别明显的季节变化在非洲大陆和热带印度洋区域,12-2月为强正压区,6-8月为强斜压区。 相似文献
20.
次季节气候和径流预测是主动减灾的一个关键。基于国家气候中心第三代气候模式系统的次季节到季节模式(CMA-CPS v3 S2S)的气候预测信息和HBV水文模型,应用集合预测技术研发了未来40 d时段平均径流量和时段内极端干旱概率预测模型,应用平均方差技巧评分、距平相关系数、相对操作特征曲线面积、布赖尔技巧评分开展了回报检验,并检验了2021年黄河流域径流异常预测效果。结果表明,所建模型能够以较高技巧预测黄河流域未来40 d时段平均的径流量,且表现出枯季预测技巧高、湿季技巧低的季节差异;对秋末11月和冬季3个月(12月、1月、2月)的极端干旱概率预测也有较高技巧。对于2021年5—8月黄河上中游干旱和9—10月的秋汛,该方法正确预测了除6月、9月外的其他4个月的径流异常方向,但异常程度与实况存在差异。对径流预测水平影响因素的进一步分析表明,S2S降水预测能力影响径流预测水平,特别是丰水期的径流预测,但还有降水之外的其他因素影响径流预测技巧。 相似文献