共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
In reliability analysis, the crude Monte Carlo method is known to be computationally demanding. To improve computational efficiency, this paper presents an importance sampling based algorithm that can be applied to conduct efficient reliability evaluation for axially loaded piles. The spatial variability of soil properties along the pile length is considered by random field modeling, in which a mean, a variance, and a correlation length are used to statistically characterize a random field. The local averaging subdivision technique is employed to generate random fields. In each realization, the random fields are used as inputs to the well-established load transfer method to evaluate the load–displacement behavior of an axially loaded pile. Failure is defined as the event where the vertical movement at the pile top exceeds the allowable displacement. By sampling more heavily from the region of interest and then scaling the indicator function back by a ratio of probability densities, a faster rate of convergence can be achieved in the proposed importance sampling algorithm while maintaining the same accuracy as in the crude Monte Carlo method. Two examples are given to demonstrate the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed method. It is shown that the estimate based on the proposed importance sampling method is unbiased. Furthermore, the size of samples can be greatly reduced in the developed method. 相似文献
2.
Toshiaki Nanazawa Tetsuya Kouno Gaku Sakashita Takashi Nakaura 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2019,13(3):176-184
ABSTRACTThis paper describes the development of a partial factor design method on the bending strength of piles for the Japanese Specifications for Highway Bridges. First, uncertainties in mobilised bending moments and yield bending moments were evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations. Second, the reliability of piles designed by the previous specifications were evaluated on the basis of reliability analysis considering uncertainties in the mobilised bending moments, yield bending moments, and other factors. Finally, a partial factor design method utilising a survey subsurface investigation method and ground type was developed to reach target reliability levels determined by the Standards. 相似文献
3.
对于一般增长曲线模型,当设计阵和协方差阵满足一定的条件时,均值矩阵(XBZ)的最小二乘估计(LSE)与最佳线性无偏估计(BLUE)相等,可用LSE代替BLUE。当这些条件不满足时,用LSE代替BLUE就要蒙受一些损失,有时这种损失很大,因而研究这种损失的大小显得相当重要,通常用它们协方差阵的差异来度量,从不同的准则出发,可以定义不同的相对效率,利用广义行列式定义了一种新的相对效率,并给出了它们的下界。 相似文献
4.
The local structural response of Ca/Mg substitution and the energetic effects associated with dodecahedral ordering in the pyrope-grossular garnet solid solution are derived from a combination of static lattice energy calculations and Monte Carlo simulations. We start with a thorough analysis of the goodness of the empirical potential models used for the modelling of aluminosilicate garnets. The degree of polyhedral distortion was found to be a sensitive indicator for the quality of the model and, by comparison with experimental data, was used to select the best of several available empirical potentials. The Ca/Mg substitution on the dodecahedral site in garnet was found to produce strong local distortions in the surrounding tetrahedral and octahedral polyhedra. This arises from the absence of rigid unit modes (RUMS) in the garnet structure, because local rotations of otherwise rigid SiO4 tetrahedra and AlO6 octahedra cannot occur in order to accommodate different-sized divalent cations in the dodecahedral sites. Strain effects, therefore, mainly govern the dodecahedral substitution, and the corresponding strain field around a dodecahedral site has a minimum radius of 5?Å. Pyrope-grossular solid solution compositions were modelled using a supercell approach. For several garnet compositions many different configurations representing individual disordered arrangements were relaxed. The resulting energies were analyzed in terms of different-neighbour interactions to determine the parameters of a model Hamiltonian. The corresponding interaction energies were found to be virtually independent of composition. Surprisingly, the nearest-neighbour interaction between edge-sharing dodecahedra is of no particular significance in the garnets. Instead, the strongest interaction is only via the third-nearest neighbours, i.e. dodecahedra that are edge-shared to a common SiO4 tetrahedron. This cannot lead to dodecahedral long-range order in garnets, but can produce significant amounts of short-range order. Monte Carlo simulations were performed on several compositions to determine the macroscopic effects such as NMR-based cluster occupancy, ordering energy and configurational entropy of the short-range ordering process. As expected, the samples tend to random disorder at high temperatures, and at low temperatures it is compositions nearer Py50Gr50 that depart most strongly from random mixing. For example, a maximum reduction of 3.5?J?mol?1?K?1 is predicted for Py75Gr25 and ～10?J?mol?1?K?1 for Py50Gr50. A comparison of NMR cluster occupancy with experimental 29Si MAS NMR resonance intensity is partly successful. However, the changes in NMR cluster occupancy are relatively low (～5%) compared to changes in configurational entropy (～30%), implying that it might be difficult to estimate exact entropy data from 29Si MAS NMR line intensities. 相似文献
5.
Colin C. Ferguson 《Mathematical Geology》1985,17(4):403-425
Little consensus exists on how best to analyze natural fracture spacings and their sequences. Field measurements and analyses published in geotechnical literature imply fracture processes radically different from those assumed by theoretical structural geologists. The approach adopted in this paper recognizes that disruption of rock layers by layer-parallel extension results in two spacing distributions, one representing layer-fragment lengths and another separation distances between fragments. These two distributions and their sequences reflect mechanics and history of fracture and separation. Such distributions and sequences, represented by a 2 × nmatrix of lengths
L,can be analyzed using a method that is history sensitive and which yields also a scalar estimate of bulk extension, e(L).The method is illustrated by a series of Monte Carlo experiments representing a variety of fracture-and-separation processes, each with distinct implications for extension history. Resulting distributions of e(L)
are process-specific, suggesting that the inverse problem of deducing fracture-and-separation history from final structure may be tractable. 相似文献
6.
The angular variation of elastic and inelastic scattering cross-sections has been calculated and used to study the energy deposition by precipitating electrons with the help of Monte Carlo Method. Monoenergetic, power law electron spectrum with isotropic and monodinational incidence starting at an altitude of 300 km have been used to obtain the angular and energy distributions at certain height intervals. In these calculations constant magnetic field has been used. 相似文献
7.
采用Monte Carlo模拟手段,提出描述场地土层特性变异性对传递函数变异性影响的分析方法。选取日本Kik-Net强震数据库中软（FKSH14）、硬（FKSH12）两类场地,建立场地概率模型。应用Monte Carlo技术随机生成50组场地剖面,分别计算场地的传递函数STF及STF标准差,讨论场地土层厚度、剪切波速,以及二者组合情况下场地传递函数的标准差及场地特征频率的变化。结果显示：对于硬土场地而言,场地特征频率标准差相对于软土场地较大,且剪切波速变异性影响比土层厚度变异性的影响略大,而二者组合工况下最大;而软土场地,土层厚度、剪切波速变化工况下场地特征频率的标准差相当,比二者组合工况下略低;软、硬两类场地,土层厚度与剪切波速二者组合工况下STF的标准差比单一量变化情况下略大,但3种工况下场地STF标准差相差不明显;场地STF的标准差在场地自振频率附近的频率段取值较大,极值点与场地STF的极值点相对应。 相似文献
8.
In this paper, we discuss several possible approaches to improving the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) through improved sampling of the initial ensemble. Each of the approaches addresses a different limitation of the standard method. All methods, however, attempt to make the results from a small ensemble as reliable as possible. The validity and usefulness of each method for creating the initial ensemble is based on three criteria: (1) does the sampling result in unbiased Monte Carlo estimates for nonlinear flow problems, (2) does the sampling reduce the variability of estimates compared to ensembles of realizations from the prior, and (3) does the sampling improve the performance of the EnKF? In general, we conclude that the use of dominant eigenvectors ensures the orthogonality of the generated realizations, but results in biased forecasts of the fractional flow of water. We show that the addition of high frequencies from remaining eigenvectors can be used to remove the bias without affecting the orthogonality of the realizations, but the method did not perform significantly better than standard Monte Carlo sampling. It was possible to identify an appropriate importance weighting to reduce the variance in estimates of the fractional flow of water, but it does not appear to be possible to use the importance weighted realizations in standard EnKF when the data relationship is nonlinear. The biggest improvement came from use of the pseudo-data with corrections to the variance of the actual observations. 相似文献
9.
线性矩法估计参数的保证修正值系数B的推求 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
在设计洪水的抽样误差估计中,采用保证修正值系数B方法估计均方差简单易用。应用线性矩法估计频率分布曲线的参数,有较好的无偏性和有效性,具有一定的应用前景。目前线性矩法的B值诺模图尚未确定,给用线性矩法确定参数时估计抽样误差带来了难度与不便。采用统计试验,分析了离差系数、偏态系数和样本长度对B值的影响,结果表明线性矩法估计参数时仍可采用保证修正值系数B值诺模图方法来估计抽样误差,并推求了不同偏态系数、设计频率情形下的B值,制成了线性矩法的B值诺模图备用。 相似文献
10.
L. G. Wang S. Yamashita F. Sugimoto C. Pan G. Tan 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2003,36(2):121-142
Summary In block caving, it is important to estimate the cavability of an ore body. This study proposes a new three dimensional (3D)
model for predicting the characteristics of ore fragmentation in block caving, which is based on the Monte Carlo simulation
technique. In this paper, the following subjects are discussed: sampling methods of discontinuity, 3D modeling algorithms
and conceptualization for analyzing the distribution of discontinuities. In addition, the influence of each modeling parameter
on the distribution of ore fragmentation was analyzed. The characteristics of ore fragmentation in a Northern China underground
copper mine are used as a case study. Based on the methods discussed here, a software system named “MAKEBLOCK” was developed
for analyzing the characteristics of discontinuities in an ore body and predicting the size distribution of ore fragments
in block caving. The ore fragmentation attained by using this 3D model is in a good agreement with the field fragmentation
measurements.
Received November 30, 2001; accepted September 19, 2002; Published online February 25, 2003
Acknowledgement Support for this project came primarily from The National Science Foundation of China (approval No. 59704004). We would like
to thank professor J. F. Archbald, head of Faculty of Mining Engineering, Queen's University, Canada, for his excellent advice
and for checking the technical presentations of this paper.
Authors' address: Dr. Liguan Wang, College of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Hunan, Changsha, China; e-mail: liguan_wang@hotmail.com 相似文献
11.
Application of the Spatially Smoothed Seismicity and Monte Carlo Methods to Estimate the Seismic Hazard of Eritrea and the Surrounding Region 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
The region of interest is characterized by incomplete data sets and little information about the tectonic features. Therefore,
two methodologies for estimating seismic hazard were used in order to elucidate the robustness of the results: the method
of spatially smoothed seismicity introduced by Frankel (1995) and later extended by Lapajne et al. (1997) and a Monte Carlo approach presented by Ebel and Kafka (1999). In the first method, fault-rupture oriented elliptical
Gaussian smoothing was performed to estimate future activity rates along the causative structures. Peak ground accelerations
were computed for a grid size of 15 km × 415 km assuming the centre of the grids as epicentres, from which the seismic hazard
map was produced. The attenuation relationship by Ambraseys et al. (1996) was found suitable for the region under study. PGA values for 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years (return period
of 475 years) were computed for each model and a combined seismic hazard map was produced by subjectively assigning weights
to each of these models. A worst-case map is also obtained by picking the highest value at each grid point from values of
the four hazard maps. The Monte Carlo method is used to estimate seismic hazard, for comparison to the results from our previous
approach. Results obtained from both methods are comparable except values in the first set of maps estimate greater hazard
in areas of low seismicity. Both maps indicate a higher hazard along the main tectonic features of the east African and Red
Sea rift systems. Within Eritrea, the highest PGA exceeded a value 25% of g, located north of Red Sea port of Massawa. In
areas around the capital, Asmara, PGA values exceed 10% of g. 相似文献
12.
This paper presents probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of Tehran, Iran, accounting the effect of nonlinear soil response. It is well-known that soil nonlinearity and its accurate prediction could play important role in seismic hazard study. For this purpose, two different approaches have been carried out for predicting the hazard curves by (1) applying site modifications to the ground motion prediction equation based on generic site classes and use of constant coefficients (2) using a close-form solution that modifies the hazard results at the rock level. Also, efficiency of the Monte Carlo method in modeling of amplification function for the six selected sites in the study area was examined. Results showed important effect of nonlinear soil response mainly for frequencies lower than 8?Hz, which should be considered properly in hazard estimation. As an interesting subject, influence of soil plasticity index (PI) on hazard estimation of clayey sites including the nonlinear soil response was evaluated. 相似文献
13.
J.-J. Song 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2006,39(2):131-146
Summary. Mauldon (1998) suggested end-point estimators of areal frequency and mean trace length for a planar sampling window which
were recently proved to be unbiased maximum likelihood estimators by Lyman (2003). The present paper is to expand the concept
and applicability of the end-point estimators to those for a general non-planar sampling window. The generalized end-point
estimators are verified and its applicability for variable discontinuity orientation is checked by Monte Carlo simulation.
Standard deviation of estimation error and estimation efficiency of areal frequency and mean trace length are also considered. 相似文献
14.
Bayes约束随机场下坝基溶蚀区随机模拟方法及其影响分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于完全随机场模拟溶蚀岩体可能会高估其空间变异性和不能有效地利用溶蚀以外的地质信息和实践经验,提出用Bayes约束参数随机场模型描述坝基溶蚀区的随机模拟方法。引入Bayes公式,对溶蚀区域岩土参数的统计特性进行修正,反映出地质勘测的新增地质信息和试验参数信息,建立约束随机场,并在此基础上进行随机有限元分析,研究坝基溶蚀对大坝结构性态的作用效应。计算结果表明,相对于完全随机场模型,Bayes约束随机场模型更为客观地考虑了溶蚀岩体的空间变异性,有效地降低了溶蚀参数完全随机场下结构响应的模拟方差。在概率分析过程中,推荐蒙特卡洛响应面耦合方法（MC-RSM）作为适用于复杂工程的随机模拟方法,该方法能够代替直接MC法对同样力学机制的不断重复,减小计算时间成本。 相似文献
15.
一种高频面波频散函数的快速算法—改进的Abo-Zena法 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
作者在本文中首先介绍了改进的Anas Abo-Zena传递矩阵法面波频散函 数的计算问题。这是一种高频时稳定的算法，适用于一般地基勘查和无损检测的面波频散函数计算。其次，还讨论了用Monte Carlo法求解面波频散函数的问题。并用这种算法和Newton迭代法进行了对比，显示了对于Newton迭代法不能计算的速度逆转剖面（即层速度自上而下逐层减递），Monte Carlo法也适用。 相似文献
16.
地下水取样是地下水调查、监测中的一项关键技术工作,必须要根据调查场地的条件和调查的目的选择合适的采样方法,并严格按照操作规程进行采样,以取得真实、有代表性的样品。本文在梳理常用地下水采样方法和采样器具的基础上,介绍了行业标准《地下水采样技术规程》的编制过程及其主要内容。该规程内容涉及地下水现场测试样品、无机检测样品、有机检测样品、气体检测样品、同位素检测样品、专项样品（包括地热水样品和饮用矿泉水样品）等的采集要求、采样方法、样品保存、质量控制等。 相似文献
17.
基于蒙特卡罗随机有限元法的三维随机渗流场研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
通过建立改进Latin超立方抽样和对偶抽样相结合的复合抽样法,以提高Monte Carlo方法的计算效率,并将其引入Monte Carlo随机有限元（MSFEM）。基于三维有限元模型,采用MCSFEM对山坪土石坝进行随机渗流场分析,研究渗透系数和水头边界条件的随机特性对渗流场的干扰,进行变异系数和抽样次数的敏感性分析。最后,对渗流场的求解量进行概型分析。研究表明：总水头势、流速及渗透体积力的变异性随着渗透系数随机性的增强而变大;复合抽样法既能有效加快Monte Carlo的收敛速度,又能降低样本间的统计相关性,说明了该方法的实用性与有效性;当渗透系数服从正态分布时,渗流场中所取结点的水头和坡降也服从正态分布。 相似文献
18.
Chang-Guk Sun 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(7):1987-2001
A geotechnical information system (GTIS) was constructed within a spatial geographic information system (GIS) framework to
reliably predict geotechnical information and accurately estimate site effects at Gyeongju, an urban area in South Korea.
The system was built based on both collected and performed site investigation data in addition to acquired geo-knowledge data.
Seismic zoning maps were constructed using the site period (T
G) and mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m (V
S30), and these maps were presented as a regional strategy to mitigate earthquake-induced risks in the study area. In particular,
the T
G distribution map indicated the susceptibility to ground motion resonance in periods ranging from 0.2 to 0.5 s and the corresponding
seismic vulnerability of buildings with two to five stories. Seismic zonation of site classification according to V
S30 values was also performed to determine the site amplification coefficients for seismic design and seismic performance evaluation
at any site and administrative subunit in the study area. In addition, we investigated the site effects according to subsurface
and surface ground irregularities at Gyeongju by seismic response analyses in time domains based on both two- and three-dimensional
spatial finite element models, which were generated using spatial interface coordinates between geotechnical subsurface layers
predicted by the GTIS. This practical study verified that spatial GIS-based geotechnical information can be a very useful
resource in determining how to best mitigate seismic hazards, particularly in urban areas. 相似文献
19.