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1.
Xin Huang Hongzhuan Tan Jia Zhou Tubao Yang Abuaku Benjamin Shi Wu Wen Shuoqi Li Aizhong Liu Xinhua Li Shuidong Fen Xinli Li 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(1):65-73
Natural and man-made disasters have been increasing and affecting millions of people throughout the world. Floods are the
most common natural disasters affecting more people across the globe than all other natural or technological disasters and
also are the most costly in terms of human hardship and economic loss. In order to explore the total economic loss, components
of economic loss, and factors influencing economic loss during flooding, a retrospective study was carried out in year 2000
in areas that suffered floods in 1998 in Hunan province, China. A total of 10,722 families were investigated using a multistage
sampling method. We found that the total economic loss to the 10,722 families investigated was US$ 8.925 million; translating
into an average economic loss of US$ 832.45 per family and US$ 216.75 per person. Economic loss related to property loss,
income loss, and increased medical cost accounted for 57.38%, 40.00%, and 2.62% of the total economic loss, respectively.
Economic loss was significantly related to a family’s pre-flood income; duration of the flood; severity of flood; and type
of flood. River floods yielded the highest economic loss and drainage problem floods yielded the lowest loss. We recommended
that flood-related preventive measures should focus on the prevention of river floods and shortening the duration of floods
with the view of significantly minimizing economic losses associated with floods. 相似文献
2.
强火山活动是气候变化的重要自然驱动因素,可导致中国降水出现年际或年代际变化,甚至极端的旱涝现象。探究位于中国邻域的印度尼西亚—菲律宾一带的强火山喷发与中国旱涝分布格局的关系,有助于阐释中国旱涝发生的时空规律及机制,为预测未来火山爆发可能导致的降水异常提供借鉴。本文基于1500—2000年期间世界强火山活动和中国旱涝资料,运用时序叠加分析的方法辨识了印度尼西亚—菲律宾一带的强火山喷发后中国旱涝在年际尺度上的时空变化特征,并对1815年Tambora火山喷发进行案例分析。结果表明印度尼西亚—菲律宾一带的强火山喷发对中国的旱涝格局有一定的影响:强火山喷发后第0年至第2年,中国中东部各站点的整体变化为偏涝;在第3年,整体出现了偏旱的转变,且变化幅度相比其他年份较大;就地区而言,喷发后华北、华南地区分别出现了由旱转涝、由涝转旱的变化,并且这些变化大概持续了2~3年,随后2个区域均恢复了喷发前的旱涝趋势;印度尼西亚1815年Tambora火山喷发后0~3年,中国以涝情为主,但发生涝情的区域逐年在发生变化。 相似文献
3.
Mahfuzur Rahman Chen Ningsheng Golam Iftekhar Mahmud Md Monirul Islam Hamid Reza Pourghasemi Hilal Ahmad Jules Maurice Habumugisha Rana Muhammad Ali Washakh Mehtab Alam Enlong Liu Zheng Han Huayong Ni Tian Shufeng Ashraf Dewan 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(6):16-35
Bangladesh experiences frequent hydro-climatic disasters such as flooding.These disasters are believed to be associated with land use changes and climate variability.However,identifying the factors that lead to flooding is challenging.This study mapped flood susceptibility in the northeast region of Bangladesh using Bayesian regularization back propagation(BRBP)neural network,classification and regression trees(CART),a statistical model(STM)using the evidence belief function(EBF),and their ensemble models(EMs)for three time periods(2000,2014,and 2017).The accuracy of machine learning algorithms(MLAs),STM,and EMs were assessed by considering the area under the curve-receiver operating char-acteristic(AUC-ROC).Evaluation of the accuracy levels of the aforementioned algorithms revealed that EM4(BRBP-CART-EBF)outperformed(AUC＞90％)standalone and other ensemble models for the three time periods analyzed.Furthermore,this study investigated the relationships among land cover change(LCC),population growth(PG),road density(RD),and relative change of flooding(RCF)areas for the per-iod between 2000 and 2017.The results showed that areas with very high susceptibility to flooding increased by 19.72％between 2000 and 2017,while the PG rate increased by 51.68％over the same period.The Pearson correlation coefficient for RCF and RD was calculated to be 0.496.These findings highlight the significant association between floods and causative factors.The study findings could be valuable to policymakers and resource managers as they can lead to improvements in flood management and reduction in flood damage and risks. 相似文献
4.
Turkey often suffers from flood-related damages and causalities as a result of intense and prolonged storms that are usually convective or cyclonic in origin. The impact is more distinctive in Aegean and Mediterranean coasts of the country where quantity and distribution of rainfall is influenced by Mediterranean cyclones, especially in late autumn and early winter. The floods sometimes became very hazardous when combined with urbanization effects, especially in the densely populated coastal communities and major cities. Severe weather was marked in the early parts of September 2009 that produced record-setting rainfall amounts across the Marmara region of Turkey and led a series of flash floods which affected ?stanbul and Tekirda? provinces especially. The overall flooding was the result of successive and persistent intense rainfall episodes over a 3-day period which produced more than 250-mm rainfall over portions of the region. The floods resulted in death of 32 people and caused extensive environmental and infrastructural damage in the region. This study provides in-depth analysis of hydrometeorological conditions that led to the occurrence of flash floods in Marmara region during 7–10 September 2009 period and also discusses non-meteorological factors that exacerbated the flooding conditions. Main meteorological settings that led to intense storms were presence of cold air in the upper atmosphere, a slow-moving quasi-stationary trough, and continuous resupply of moisture to the surface low from the warm Aegean Sea. Radar images showed the development of clusters of convective cells that remained quasi-stationary over portions of the region. The 24-h rainfall amounts varied between 100 and 253 mm in most parts of the region during the flooding period with diverse spatial patterns. The southern locations received the highest amount of the rainfall as compared to stations located in northern slopes of the region. Typical effects of orography that enhance rainfall in the coastal areas, however, were not observed during the Marmara flood. Some features of the synoptic pattern observed prior and during the flooding period, supported the back door cold front concept. This is characterized with easterly to northeasterly surface flows forced by an anticyclone, advection of cold continental air over the warm Black Sea which provided anomalous moisture to trigger cyclogenesis over the Marmara region, and falling of core of the intense rainfall over the Marmara Sea. The study concluded that although the meteorological settings were favorable for the convective rainfalls, urbanization factors, such as land use changes and occupation of flood plains, played major role in aggravating the worst flood observed in the region in recent decades. 相似文献
5.
The risk analysis of flood and drought disasters and the study of their influencing factors enhance our understanding of the temporal and spatial variation law of disasters and help identify the main factors affecting disasters. This paper uses the provincial administrative region of China as the research area. The proportion of the disaster area represents the degree of the disaster. The statistical distribution of the proportions was optimized from 10 alternative distributions based on a KS test, and the disaster risk was analyzed. Thirty-five indicators were selected from nature, agriculture and the social economy as alternative factors. The main factors affecting flood and drought disasters were selected by Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficient test. The results demonstrated that the distribution of floods and drought is right-skewed, and the gamma distribution is the best statistical distribution for fitting disasters. In terms of time, the risk of flood and drought disasters in all regions showed a downward trend. Economic development and the enhancement of the ability to resist disasters were the main reasons for the change in disasters. Spatially, the areas with high drought risk were mainly distributed in Northeast and North China, and the areas with high flood risk were mainly distributed in the south, especially in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui. The distribution of floods and drought disasters was consistent with the distribution characteristics of precipitation and water resources in China. Among the natural factors, precipitation was the main factor causing changes in floods and drought disasters. Among the agricultural and socioeconomic factors, the indicators reflecting the disaster resistance ability and regional economic development level were closely related to flood and drought disasters. The research results have reference significance for disaster classification, disaster formation mechanisms and flood and drought resistance.
相似文献6.
黄河下游漫滩高含沙洪水河床调整剧烈,多数断面洪水后形成"相对窄深河槽",洪水前后河槽宽度发生明显变化。分别以观测断面洪水前后的河槽宽度为基准,计算漫滩高含沙洪水期泥沙时空沉积分布,结果表明,漫滩高含沙洪水与非漫滩高含沙洪水相比,能将主河槽内淤积泥沙量的59.3%搬运至嫩滩或滩地,减缓主河槽淤积。在分析研究基础上,建立了洪水后漫滩河段河槽相对缩窄率与洪水前期河槽宽度的量化关系,洪水后主槽宽度缩窄率为15.5%~44.0%;分析遴选了漫滩高含沙洪水滩地淤积量与主要水力因子间关联度及物理含义,给出了漫滩高含沙洪水滩地淤积量与相应水力因子间的响应函数;初步提出漫滩洪水河道塑槽淤滩的临界水沙配置指标,临界水沙系数取值为0.025~0.040。成果对高含沙洪水调控具有一定的指导意义。 相似文献
7.
Spatial and temporal changes of agro-meteorological disasters affecting maize production in China since 1990 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Agro-meteorological (AM) disasters have been reported to be more frequent with climate change. In this study, the spatial and temporal changes in the frequency of major AM disasters affecting maize production are investigated by analyzing observed records at 224 national AM stations in China from 1991 to 2009. To investigate the temporal changes of the disasters with climate warming, the whole study period was separated into a cool period (1991–2000) and a warmer one (2000–2009). We found drought was the most common disaster with a frequency of 49 %, followed by chilling injures (19.46 %). The frequency of disasters affecting maize increased significantly during the reproductive growth period than the vegetative growth period. Spatial patterns of major disaster frequency were characterized by region-specific, with more cold stress in northeastern China, drought in northern and western China, and rainstorms in southwestern China. Our study highlighted that the frequency and scope both increased significantly, implying a potential increasing risk for maize production. It is critical and important for local farmers and governors to take reasonable and timely adaptation measures based on the latest disasters’ features to mitigate the potential yield loss from AM disasters in order to ensure food security in China. 相似文献
8.
An analysis of the drought and flood hazard characteristics and risks during the pre-rainy season in South China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Based on the daily precipitation data provided by the National Meteorological Information Center recorded at 89 representative stations in South China, as well as the reanalyzed monthly average 850-hPa wind field and sea surface temperature (SST) data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research between 1969 and 2008, we studied the inter-annual variations and the causes of flood and drought hazards during the pre-rainy season in South China. Moreover, we assessed the hazard risks. The results indicate the following. (1) Most areas in Guangdong, the north and southwest of Guangxi, and the junction of Jiangxi and Fujian are at high risk of severe flooding. (2) The inter-annual variations of the pre-rainy season flood and drought hazards are evident in South China; specifically, consistent anomalies exist in Guangdong, Guangxi, central and north Fujian, and central and south Jiangxi. An inverse distribution of anomalies occurred in central and south Guizhou. Since the 1990s, inter-annual drought and flood hazards have accrued, particularly in south Guangxi, the southern and northern regions of Guangdong, and the north and central of Fujian where the risk of severe drought and flood is high. (3) The “El-Niño-Southern-Oscillation-like” (ENSO-like) SST anomaly and the corresponding atmospheric circulation anomaly are the major causes of the inter-annual variation of the pre-rainy season drought and flood hazards in South China. From the preceding winter to the pre-rainy season, the ENSO-like positive (negative) SST anomaly regulates the South China Sea and western Pacific anti-cyclonic (cyclonic) airflow to control the South China Sea. This effect increases (or decreases) the warm, humid vapor input in South China and causes severe pre-rainy season floods (or droughts) hazards in South China. It should be noted that because of the asymmetry in the anomalous local low-level circulation and the rainfall patterns, the floods and droughts hazards region in South China are also asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña. 相似文献
9.
新疆天山北坡中段河流冰凌洪水特征分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
冰凌洪水(冰洪)是新疆天山北坡中段河流冬季的一种特殊洪水,其暴发主要受气温、逆温带范围、冬季河流来水量、冰情冰厚、地势.河道弯曲率和河床条件等多种因素影响."冰洪"具有随机性、规律性和不重复性三种特性,冰凌洪水的峰型类似于暴雨洪水具有陡涨陡落的特点,峰前陡峭而落峰则相对缓一些.以四棵树河为典型流域,对冰凌洪水的成因、发展和运动规律进行研究,并发现冰凌洪水具有"水鼓冰开"现象.对四棵树河1967-2006年冰洪流量的年内、年际分布情况看,20世纪70-80年代由于冬季气候寒冷,是"冰洪"发生最多的时期;自进入20世纪90年代以来由于受全球气候变暖等因素影响,冰凌洪水呈现衰退趋势,气候变暖对冰洪影响非常大. 相似文献
10.
Effects of land use change on flood characteristics in mountainous area of Daqinghe watershed, China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Land use has changed in the Daqinghe watershed during 1956–2005, and it has influenced the flood peak and volume. In order to reveal the effects of land use change on flood characteristics in Daqinghe watershed, we selected 2 sub-watersheds and used remote-sensed land use data of 1980 and 1996 to analyze changes in land use and also selected several combinations of similar rainfall events and the corresponding flood events to show how changes in land use affect floods. The forest and urban area increased and other types decreased, and flood peaks and volumes tended to decrease under similar rainfall events. To quantify the extent of change in land use affecting floods, a hydrological model incorporating the land use was established. The model combines infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff generation mechanism in each type of land use, and the simulation results agreed well with the measured flood processes in the two selected watersheds. Several floods of different return intervals were selected to be modeled under the 1980 and 1996 land use conditions. The results show that both flood peak and volume decreased under the 1996 land use condition in comparison with the 1980 land use condition in the two watersheds. Most of the flood peaks decreased <5 %, but the volume decreased to a greater extent. This result can be helpful in modifying design flood. 相似文献
11.
Arturo Valdés-Manzanilla 《Natural Hazards》2018,94(1):167-180
This study presents a chronology of historical and measured flood events in the Papaloapan River basin of Mexico during 450 years. Twenty-eight historical floods were recorded during the period 1550–1948 on this river and one flood event (1969) in the instrumental era (1949–2000), of which 14 were extraordinary floods and only 15 were catastrophic ones. There were several flood-rich decades during 1860–1870, 1880–1890, 1920–1930 and 1940–1950. Wavelet analysis found a significant flooding periodicity of 58 years. The wavelet coherence analysis found that flooding had an in-phase relationship with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and also with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Logistic regression corroborated that there exists a positive relationship between floods events and these two natural climatic oscillations. The logistic regression model predicted correctly 92% of flood events. 相似文献
12.
新疆河流洪水与洪灾的变化趋势 总被引：32，自引：11，他引：21
在西北气候由暖干转向暖湿的过程中,新疆河流的洪水和洪灾反映明显.对新疆29条河流选取年最大洪水,统计出超标准洪水、20a一遇、50a一遇洪水的出现频次进行分析,结果显示1987年后洪水量级、洪水频次呈增加的变化趋势.通过20世纪90年代以来灾害性洪水出现的频次、灾害损失的变化比较分析,90年代以来灾害性洪水尤其是灾害性暴雨洪水和突发性洪水呈现增加的态势,1987—2000年的灾害损失与1950—1986年相比增加了30倍. 相似文献
13.
长江中、下游特大暴雨洪水的成功预报和科学依据 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
进入 2 0世纪 90年代以来 ,中国七大江河流域旱涝频繁 ,旱涝灾害和由旱涝引起的次生地质灾害十分严重 ,特别是长江中、下游地区的洪涝几率高达 5 0 % (5 /10 )。 195 1— 2 0 0 0年长江中、下游地区发生了 9个大水年 ,几率为 18% (9/5 0 ) ,90年代洪涝的频繁程度属 2 0世纪之最 ,1998年特大暴雨洪水的时空集中强度也属 2 0世纪之最。长江的大暴雨洪水在近 10a来很频繁 ,但从气候分布几率来看 ,它毕竟是小概率事件 ,对小概率事件的长期预报具有很大的难度 ,而且暴雨洪水的长期影响因子也错综复杂 ,这就给预报带来了艰巨性。通过对降水的各种影响因子的分析研究和多因子集成预报模型的研制 ,对 1998年长江流域的特大暴雨洪水从时间、地区和量级三要素的长、中期预报都取得了成功 ,对其他 5个洪涝年也从趋势和分级两方面做出了成功的长期预报。文中重点剖析了预报取得成功的科学依据。 相似文献
14.
Lynda Yorke 《Geology Today》2017,33(3):114-118
Flooding appears to be an increasing issue in the UK, Europe and worldwide. Since 2000, the UK has experienced severe floods in York (2000), Cornwall (2004), Cumbria (2005), Hull (2007), Cumbria (2009), North Wales (2012) and UK (2013/14) (Fig. 1 ). These floods have occurred during the summer, autumn and winter periods, and have caused countless issues to the public, infrastructure and the government. Based on recent events it could be said that flooding is getting worse, but is that really the case? 相似文献
15.
以1996年7月我国南方暴雨水灾为例,研究了暴雨水灾时星载微波SSM/I的遥感数据,分析了SSM/I7个通道辐射亮度温度的极化散射和辐射特征,定义了识别降雨的散射指数SI,水灾警戒指数FI,和辐射极化指数PI.用SSM/I的观察数据,讨论了暴雨水灾时这些指数的时间和空间的特征性变化,给出了SSM/I数据对于1996年7月暴雨和水灾的识别,以及全月降雨异常值的空间分布。 相似文献
16.
Gary A. Huckleberry 《Geoarchaeology》1995,10(3):159-182
Archival and stratigraphic data from the middle Gila River, Arizona, provide insight into late-Holocene floods and channel changes that affected the Hohokam, prehistoric agriculturalists who practiced canal irrigation 2000-500 B.P. The relationship between floods and channel changes during the past 300 years is characterized by an increased frequency of wide, braided channel conditions during episodes of increased large flood frequency. Ten radiocarbon ages from overbank deposits from the middle Gila River flood plain indicate that the frequency of large floods was relatively low 4000-1000 B.P. (14C years) but increased after 1000 B.P., a pattern supported by paleoflood slackwater sites in the upper Gila River watershed. This suggests that channel instability (shifts between narrow, single-channel and wide, braided planforms) increased after 1000 B.P. The latter part of the 4000-1000 B.P. period of relative channel stability corresponds in time with the development of Hohokam irrigation agriculture and expansion of canal systems, whereas increased fluvial dynamics beginning 1000 B.P. correlate (in time) to changes in settlement patterns during the Sedentary-Classic period transition. Higher large flood frequency may be responsible for the consolidation of canal systems and relocation of villages along the middle Gila River after 1000 B.P. and during the Classic period. Increased flooding and concomitant channel changes alone, however, do not adequately explain the collapse of the Hohokam pattern. 相似文献
17.
三峡水库建成后,长江中下游防洪形势显著改善,但由于经济社会发展,防洪要求的提高和江湖关系的变化,长江防洪形势发生了一些新的变化。以1954年和1998年典型大洪水为例,分析了三峡水库建成后长江中下游防洪形势出现的新变化,讨论了长江中下游蓄滞洪空间格局调整及江湖关系变化对于防洪的影响。根据长江水沙变化、河道演变、水库群调控和分蓄洪区使用几率变化等出现的新问题,提出未来防洪战略及对策。结果表明:三峡建成后,百年一遇以下洪水防御形势明显好转,而百年一遇以上特大防洪的防洪形势仍然严峻,洪水风险主要转移到水库群上;今后需要在加强蓄滞洪区建设的基础上,重点推动防洪非工程措施建设,以减轻特大洪水带来的灾害损失。 相似文献
18.
The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate
us to study long-term changes in extreme rainfall over India. The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy
rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact
of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing
in major parts of central and north India while they are increasing in peninsular, east and north east India. The study tries
to bring out some of the interesting findings which are very useful for hydrological planning and disaster managements. Extreme
rainfall and flood risk are increasing significantly in the country except some parts of central India. 相似文献
19.
Flood, drought and typhoon disasters during the last half-century in the Guangdong province, China 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
In this paper, we present the changing properties of losses due to occurrences of droughts, floods and typhoon disasters in the Guangdong province, a comparatively economically prosperous province in the south China. Influences of typhoon activities on droughts and floods are also analysed. Results based on extensive and thorough investigations indicate that (1) generally, Guangdong province is both humid and warm; however, in recent decades, the negative impacts of droughts seem to be enhancing, which is proved by increasing drought-induced economic loss. In this sense, considerable importance should be attached to droughts, but not solely to floods, in the Guangdong province; (2) low-lying terrain of the Guangdong province makes this region easy to be influenced by flood inundation. Moreover, highly urbanized areas are mostly located in the low-lying areas. Flood-induced loss was increasing before 1990s and is decreasing after 1990s, and this should be attributed mainly to seasonal shifts of precipitation changes and enhancing human mitigation to flood disasters; (3) typhoon activities often inflict considerable loss on the economy of the Guangdong province. Moreover, flood events in the study region are mostly the results of typhoon activities. Flash floods, strong wind and storm surge accompanying typhoon activities are the major factors intensifying the negative impacts of the typhoon disasters. 相似文献
20.
分析了美国20世纪洪水损失的演变情况及洪水损失对国民经济的影响,探讨了美国的洪水响应政策,并对中国和美国20世纪90年代的洪水损失进行比较研究.主要结论如下:①美国20世纪年均洪水损失以1.58%的增长率缓慢上升,20世纪末年均损失约为55.6亿美元;②洪水损失占GDP的比重逐渐下降,由20世纪30年代的0.334%下降到90年代的0.068%;③美国许多重大洪水政策的调整几乎都与特大洪水发生有关,呈由"遏制洪水"、"控制洪水"发展到"洪水管理"的演变历程;④通过比较研究发现,整个90年代是中国和美国洪水频发的时期,中国的年均洪水损失为1343.1亿元,损失占全国GDP的2.386%;而美国年均洪水损失虽然也达到了55.6亿美元,但只占全美GDP的0.068%;洪水对中国国民经济的影响远远大于对美国的影响. 相似文献