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1.
误差非线性的增长理论及可预报性研究 总被引：2，自引：9，他引：2
对非线性系统的误差发展方程不作线性化近似，直接用原始的误差发展方程来研究初始误差的发展，提出了误差非线性的增长理论。首先，在相空间中定义一个非线性误差传播算子，初始误差在这个算子的作用下，可以非线性发展成任意时刻的误差；然后，在此基础上，引入了非线性局部Lyapunov指数的概念。由平均非线性局部Lyapunov指数可以得到误差平均相对增长随时间的演变情况；对于一个混沌系统，误差平均相对增长被证明将趋于一个饱和值，利用这个饱和值，混沌系统的可预报期限可以被定量地确定。误差非线性的增长理论可以应用于有限尺度大小初始扰动的可预报性研究，较误差的线性增长理论有明显的优越性。 相似文献
2.
数值天气预报和气候预测可预报性研究的若干动力学方法 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
简要回顾了数值天气预报和气候预测可预报性研究的若干动力学方法,包括用于研究第一类可预报性问题的线性奇异向量（LSV）和条件非线性最优初始扰动（CNOP-I）方法,以及Lyapunov指数和非线性局部Lyapunov指数方法。前两种方法用于研究预报或预测的预报误差问题,可以用于估计天气预报和气候预测的最大预报误差,而且根据导致最大预报误差的初始误差结构的信息,这两种方法可以用于确定预报或预测的初值敏感区。应该指出的是,LSV是基于线性化模式,对于描述非线性大气和海洋的运动具有局限性。因而,对于非线性模式,应该选择使用CNOP-I估计最大预报误差。Lyapunov指数和非线性局部Lyapunov指数可以用于研究第一类可预报性问题中的预报时限问题,前者是基于线性模式,不能解释非线性对预报时限的影响,而非线性局部Lyapunov指数方法则考虑了非线性的影响,能够较好地估计实际天气和气候的预报时限。第二类可预报性问题的研究方法相对较少,本文仅介绍了由我国科学家提出的关于模式参数扰动的条件非线性最优参数扰动（CNOP-P）方法,该方法可以用于寻找到对预报有最大影响的参数扰动,并可以进一步确定哪些参数最应该利用观测资料进行校准。另一方面,通过对比CNOP-I和CNOP-P对预报误差的影响,可以判断导致预报不确定性的主要误差因子,进而指导人们着力改进模式或者初始场。 相似文献
3.
A 3D mesoscale model is applied in a marine cold front case in order to investigate the impact oflatent heating on the structure of cold fronts.Results of the moist and dry simulations are comparedto stress the effects of moist processes.It is found that both the temperature gradient and the cyclonicvorticity across the frontal zone considerably increase due to the latent heating,especially in the lowertroposphere.A thermally direct cross-front ageostrophic circulation.forced by frontogenesis,is foundbetter developed and organized in the moist case than in the dry case.This cross-front directageostrophic circulation,particularly its ascending branch,is considerably enhanced by latent heatingdue to increased frontogenetical forcing and reduced effective static stability in the rising motion regionwhere condensation occurs.One important feature in most observed cold fronts is the presence of anintense rising cell just above their leading edge.This intense rising cell is well simulated in the moistcase but is less clear and much weaker in the dry case,indicating the important contribution by the la-tent heat release to the formation of this intense updraft above the surface cold front. 相似文献
4.
For an n-dimensional chaotic system, we extend the definition of the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE) from one-to n-dimensional spectra, and present a method for computing the NLLE spectrum. The method is tested on three chaotic systems with different complexity. The results indicate that the NLLE spectrum realistically characterizes the growth rates of initial error vectors along different directions from the linear to nonlinear phases of error growth. This represents an improvement over the traditional Lyapunov exponent spectrum, which only characterizes the error growth rates during the linear phase of error growth. In addition, because the NLLE spectrum can effectively separate the slowly and rapidly growing perturbations, it is shown to be more suitable for estimating the predictability of chaotic systems, as compared to the traditional Lyapunov exponent spectrum. 相似文献
5.
J. Egger 《Climate Dynamics》1997,13(4):285-292
Flux correction schemes are used in order to suppress the drift of coupled ocean atmosphere models. This technique is tested
for a simple box model of the climate system. Two “perfect” models of the ocean and the atmosphere are available. These are
coupled to form an ocean-atmosphere model representing the true climate system. This climate system is simulated by a climate
model which is also constructed by coupling those two perfect models. This time, however, both models are run first separately
as models of the atmosphere and the ocean. In that case, “observations” from the climate system are prescribed at the ocean
surface in the uncoupled models. It is assumed that these observations are imperfect. A drift results, when these models are
coupled to form an ocean-atmosphere stimulation model. A flux adjustment scheme is implemented to remove this drift. It is
argued that the merits and shortcomings of the flux correction technique can be assessed more clearly this way than by coupling
imperfect models as is done normally. Sensitivity tests are performed where either radiation parameters are changed or a salt
anomaly is implanted. Model parameters are chosen such that the ocean has a thermally direct circulation in the unperturbed
climate state. It is found that the flux correction technique is performing satisfactorily as long as the imposed perturbations
are small enough so that the ocean circulation does not change its sense. If, however, the model climate is close to the transition
to an indirect circulation, then the flux correction technique is unreliable. The predictions of the coupled model with flux
correction may deviate substantially from the response of the climate system in that case.
Received: 4 December 1995/Accepted: 15 October 1996 相似文献
6.
The El Niño stochastic oscillator 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
G. Burgers 《Climate Dynamics》1999,15(7):521-531
A stochastic model is fitted to the observed NINO3.4 time series between 1951–1995. The model is nothing more than the complex version of a first-order autoregressive process. The autocorrelation of this stochastic oscillator model is an exponentially decaying cosine, specified by three parameters: a period, a decay time, and a phase shift. It fits the observed NINO3.4 autocorrelation quite well. Anomalies during an El Niño can be characterized to a large extent by a single, irregularly oscillating, index. Equatorial wave dynamics and delayed-oscillator models have been used to explain this behaviour, and it has been suggested that El Niño might be a stable phenomenon excited by weather noise. Assuming this is the case, the stochastic oscillator has a direct physical interpretation: the parameters of the oscillation can be linked to dynamical models of the delayed-oscillator type, and the noise terms represent random influences, such as intraseasonal oscillations. Long Monte Carlo simulations with the stochastic oscillator show substantial decadal variability and variation in predictability. The observed decadal variability is comparable, except for the rather large rise in the long-term mean around 1980. The observed seasonal dependence of El Niño behaviour is not compatible with the natural variability of a stationary stochastic oscillator. Formulating the model in terms of standardized anomalies takes into account some of the seasonal dependence. A stochastic oscillator forecast model has a skill approaching that of more comprehensive statistical models and may thus serve as an appropriate baseline for the skill of El Niño forecasting systems. 相似文献
7.
利用全国518个站1960—2011年逐日气温观测资料和160个站1983—2012年月尺度气温客观预测数据,基于非线性局部Lyapunov指数和非线性误差增长理论,研究中国区域月尺度气温可预报性期限对资料序列长度的依赖性。结果表明:气温可预报性期限对资料序列的长度有一定程度的依赖性,在西北、东北及华中地区尤为明显。平均而言,45年的资料序列长度才能够得到稳定合理的可预报性期限。为了验证气温可预报期限计算结果的可信度,将月尺度气温的可预报性期限与客观气候预测方法的预报评分技巧进行对比,发现两者结果非常一致。其中,由观测资料得到的1月气温的可预报性期限明显低于7月,1月客观气候预测方法的预报评分技巧也明显低于7月,且1月 (7月) 预报评分的空间分布型与1月 (7月) 气温可预报性期限的空间分布型较为一致。因此,利用非线性局部Lyapunov指数和台站逐日观测资料分析气温的可预报性期限结果是可信的。 相似文献
8.
为研究我国近百年气温的长程相关规律，通过对我国近百年月平均温度序列的非趋势波动分析。初步得出以下几个结论：我国近百年气温存在内在的长程相关性；标度指数a≌0．66；尽管大于18a尺度区间的α与小于18a尺度区间的α有所不同，但可能由于所分析的温度序列长度受到限制，没有足够充分的理由认为18a是个交叉点。 相似文献
9.
基于C-C方法的Lyapunov指数计算 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
识别混沌是对非线性时间序列进行分析，预测，控制的基础，克服已有文献用Lyapunov指数识别混沌时计算Lyapunov指数的不足，用C－C方法计算相空间重构的参数，然后利用混沌的遍历性及定义，提出计算最大Lyapunov指数的新方法，典型实例证明新算法的高效性与正确性。 相似文献
10.
Despite recent advances in supercomputing, current general circulation models poorly represent the variability associated with organized tropical convection. In a recent study, the authors have shown, in the context of a paradigm two baroclinic mode system, that a stochastic multicloud convective parameterization based on three cloud types (congestus, deep and stratiform) can be used to improve the variability and the dynamical structure of tropical convection. Here, the stochastic multicloud model is modified with a lag type stratiform closure and augmented with an explicit mechanism for congestus detrainment moistening. These modifications improve the representation of intermittent coherent structures such as synoptic and mesoscale convective systems. Moreover, the new stratiform-lag closure allows for increased robustness of the coherent features of the model with respect to the amount of stochastic noise and leading to a multi-scale organization of slowly moving waves envelopes in which short-lived and chaotic convective events persist. Congestus cloud decks dominate the suppressed-dry phase of the wave envelopes. The simulations with the new closure have a higher amount of stochastic noise and result in a Walker type circulation with realistic mean and coherent variability which surpasses results of previous deterministic and stochastic multicloud models in the same parameter regime. Further, deterministic mean field limit equations (DMFLE) for the stochastic multicloud model are considered. Aside from providing a link to the deterministic multicloud parameterization, the DMFLE allow a judicious way of determining the amount of deterministic and stochastic “chaos” in the system. It is shown that with the old stratiform heating closure, the stochastic process accounts for most of the chaotic behavior. The simulations with the new stratiform heating closure exhibit a mixture of stochastic and deterministic chaos. The highly chaotic dynamics in the simulations with congestus detrainment mechanism is due to the strongly nonlinear and numerically stiff deterministic dynamics. In the latter two cases, the DMFLE can be viewed as a “standalone” parameterization, which is capable of capturing some dynamical features of the stochastic parameterization. Furthermore, it is shown that, in spatially extended simulations, the stochastic multicloud model can capture qualitatively two local statistical features of the observations: long and short auto-correlation times of moisture and precipitation, respectively and the approximate power-law in the probability density of precipitation event size for large precipitation events. The latter feature is not reproduced in the column simulations. This fact underscores the importance of gravity waves and large scale moisture convergence. 相似文献
11.
实际风速脉动普遍具有自相似分形特征,而传统的谐波合成法和线性滤波法仿真的风速脉动均不具有自相似分形特征.因此,基于随机型Weierstrass-Mandelbrot函数,设计了一种能够仿真自相似风速脉动的方案.其中,表征风速脉动自相似特征的重要参数分形维度可与湍流惯性区能谱的幂指数建立联系.将该方案仿真的风速脉动与实际风速脉动一些重要的统计特征,如功率谱和概率密度函数等,进行了比较,结果表明提出的新方案能有效仿真风速脉动的中高频变化及其概率分布特征. 相似文献
12.
Intermittent concentration fluctuation time series were produced with a stochastic numerical model derived from the assumption that the concentration fluctuations at a fixed receptor in a point-source plume can be modelled as a first order Markov process. The time derivative of concentration was assumed to be level-dependent and constrained by a stationary lognormal probability density function. The input parameters required to reconstruct the intermittent time series are the intermittency factor , the conditional fluctuation intensity i
p
2
, and the time scale T
c
. A clipped lognormal probability distribution was used to describe the fluctuation time series. Good agreement between the stochastic simulation and experimental water-channel data was demonstrated by comparing the time derivative of concentration and the upcrossing rates over a range of intermittency factors = 0.7 to 0.01 and fluctuation intensities i
w
2
= 2.2 to 7.5. 相似文献
13.
Observations show that at middle and high latitudes, the magnitude of stochastic wind stress forcing due to atmospheric weather is comparable to that of the seasonal cycle and will likely exert a significant influence on the ocean circulation. The focus of this work will be the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to the stochastic forcing in the North Atlantic and its influence on the large-scale, wind-driven ocean circulation. To this end, a QG model of the North Atlantic Ocean was forced with the stochastic component of wind stress curl associated with the NAO signal. The ocean response is localized primarily in the western boundary region and can be conveniently understood using generalized stability analysis. Much of the variability is associated with the nonnormal influence of the bathymetry and inhomogeneities in the western boundary flow on the large-scale circulation. A more traditional statistical analysis of the circulation, however, reveals that there are very small and insignificant correlations between the NAO forcing and the ocean response within the western boundary region. This suggests that the dynamics of the ocean response to stochastic forcing may obscure any obvious coherence between the forcing and the response which is equally difficult to identify from observations. 相似文献
14.
《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2008,44(3-4):151-170
Observations show that at middle and high latitudes, the magnitude of stochastic wind stress forcing due to atmospheric weather is comparable to that of the seasonal cycle and will likely exert a significant influence on the ocean circulation. The focus of this work will be the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to the stochastic forcing in the North Atlantic and its influence on the large-scale, wind-driven ocean circulation. To this end, a QG model of the North Atlantic Ocean was forced with the stochastic component of wind stress curl associated with the NAO signal. The ocean response is localized primarily in the western boundary region and can be conveniently understood using generalized stability analysis. Much of the variability is associated with the nonnormal influence of the bathymetry and inhomogeneities in the western boundary flow on the large-scale circulation. A more traditional statistical analysis of the circulation, however, reveals that there are very small and insignificant correlations between the NAO forcing and the ocean response within the western boundary region. This suggests that the dynamics of the ocean response to stochastic forcing may obscure any obvious coherence between the forcing and the response which is equally difficult to identify from observations. 相似文献
15.
Presented is a review of quantitative characteristics of atmospheric frontogenesis that describe it as the process of variations of the vector of the horizontal temperature gradient (both in value and in direction) in an individual particle. The frontogenesis that strives for recovering the thermal wind balance disturbed in the case of inhomogeneous advection, generates vertical circulation which is both thermally direct (warm air ascends relative to cold air) and thermally opposite (upward motions in the cold air). Given are the expressions for computing frontogenesis using the data on temperature, pressure, and wind. Used is the resolution of the frontogenetic vector function into components along the isoline of potential temperature both on and across the constant-pressure surface. The first component describes the change in the temperature gradient vector due to the rotation of isotherms (rotational frontogenesis), and the second component, the variations of the absolute value of the gradient (scalar frontogenesis). Quantitative characteristics of frontogenesis are efficient diagnostic parameters both for understanding weather processes and weather forecast specification and for the verification and enhancement of numerical models. 相似文献
16.
Leads and polynyas have a great impact on the energy budget of the polar ocean and atmosphere. Since atmospheric general
circulation models are not able to resolve the spatial scales of these inhomogeneities, it is necessary to include the effect
of fractional sub-grid scale sea-ice inhomogeneities on climate by a suitable parametrization. In order to do this we have
divided each model grid-cell into an ice-covered and an ice-free part. Nevertheless, a numerical model requires effective
transports representative for the whole grid-box. A simple procedure would be to use grid averages of the surface parameters
for the calculation of the surface fluxes. However, as the surface fluxes are non-linearly dependent on the surface properties,
the fluxes over ice and open water should be calculated separately according to the individual surface-layer structure of
each surface type. Then these local fluxes should be averaged to obtain representative fluxes. Sensitivity experiments with
the Hamburg atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM3 clearly show that a subgrid scale distribution of sea ice is a dominant
factor controlling the exchange processes between ocean and atmosphere in the Arctic. The heat and water vapour transports
are strongly enhanced leading to a significant warming and moistening of the polar troposphere. This affects the atmospheric
circulation in high- and mid-latitudes; e.g. the stationary lows are modified and the transient cyclonic activity over the
subpolar oceans is reduced. A pronounced impact of sub-grid scale sea-ice distribution on the model climate can only be obtained
when the non-linear behaviour of the surface exchange processes is considered by a proper, physically based, averaging of
the surface fluxes. A simple linear averaging of surface parameters is not sufficient.
Received: 13 September 1994 / Accepted: 25 July 1995 相似文献
17.
18.
中国东部降水的随机动力预测初步研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用一个具有门限的非线性随机动力气候模式,对中国东部江淮流域的降水进行了预报试验。结果表明：模式能对大范围环流降水作出较为准确的形势预报。还比较了海气耦合模式与外强迫模式的预报效果,表明耦合模式的预报效果略好于外强迫模式。 相似文献
19.
Summary Planning, design, construction and operation of lakeshore structures require information about the future likely extremes
of the lake levels at a given risk percentage. Alternative future likely synthetic sequences can be numerically generated
provided that the underlying generating mechanism of the lake level fluctuation phenomenon is identified. Simple linear and
periodic nonlinear models are used for modeling the deterministic part in the lake level records. Linear trend is eliminated
from the original lake level historic data by regression line technique. The nonlinear part needs two stages for its identification.
First Fourier series is applied to model interannual periodicities in the lake level fluctuation series and then monthly standardization
procedure is applied for seasonal periodic nonlinear component modeling. A second order Markov model is found suitable for
the remaining stochastic parts. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van monthly level data in eastern
Turkey. Suitable models are identified and their parameters are estimated for trend, periodic and stochastic parts. Likely,
synthetic lake levels are generated by the stochastic model and hence lake level extreme values are depicted for the next
2, 6, 12, 24, 60 and 120 months with risk calculations. Such risk calculations take into account the stochastic characteristics
of the lake level fluctuations only. The deterministic parts as linear trends and periodicities are added to the stochastic
extreme events for the actual simulation of the lake levels. The model presented in this paper is not for time prediction
of future lake levels but rather for the simulation of possible equally likely extreme lake level value occurrences over any
desired future period.
Received April 22, 1998/Revised July 28, 1999 相似文献
20.
《Atmospheric Science Letters》2001,2(1-4):94-103
Three long-term total ozone time series at Camborne, Lerwick and Arosa are examined for their statistical properties. Non-Gaussian behaviour is seen for all locations. There are large interannual fluctuations in the higher moments of the probability distribution. However, only the mean for all stations and summer standard deviation at Lerwick show significant trends. This suggests that there has been no long-term change in the stratospheric circulation, but there are decadal variations. The time series can be also characterised as scale invariant with a Hurst exponent of about 0.8 for all three sites. The Arosa time series was found to be weakly intermittent, in agreement with the non-Gaussian characteristics of the data set 相似文献