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1.
On the basis of reanalysis of the data of the European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for 1979–1993, we study the relationship between the interannual and intramonthly variability of the fields of surface temperature and pressure in the Atlantic-European region and the Southern Oscillation (SO). In spring, the SO is responsible for 25% of the variance of surface temperature for periods of 8–30 days in the east part of Europe and in the Mediterranean region. In this case, the zonal circulation over the North Atlantic is intensified, which manifests itself in the deepening of the Iceland Low and Azores High. For low indices of SO, 8–15-day temperature fluctuations are predominant over the Black-Sea region. At the same time, 3–4-week fluctuations are predominant over West Mediterranean. An important role in the formation of abnormal temperature conditions in the analyzed region is payed by the events of La Niño.  相似文献   

2.
Seasonal and interannual variability of the pressure field and indices of the North Atlantic atmosphere zonal circulation are analysed using historical (1894–1988) observations. It is shown that fluctuations of the index of North Atlantic oscillations (NAO) and that of the eastward transport give evidence of the interannual fluctuations with the typical time scale being 2–7 years. It is shown that the magnitude of interannual NAO index variability exceeds the typical magnitude of seasonal variations, particularly in winter. The time scale of NAO index variations and eastward transport coincides with the typicalEl Niño-southern oscillations (ENSO) temporal scale. The amplitudes of the annual, semi-annual harmonics, and high-frequency fluctuations of the NAO index increase during a typical ENSO event at least by a factor of 2.Translated by V. Puchkin.  相似文献   

3.
Sea surface salinity (SSS) data in the Atlantic Ocean is investigated between 50°N and 30°S based on data collected mostly during the period 1977–2002. Monthly mapping of SSS is done to extract the large-scale variability. This mapped variability indicates fairly long (seasonal) time scales outside the equatorial region. The spatial scales of the seasonal anomalies are regional, but not basin-wide (typically 500–1000 km). These seasonal SSS anomalies are found to respond with a 1–2 month lag to freshwater flux anomalies at the air–sea interface or to the horizontal Ekman advection. This relation presents a seasonal cycle in the northern subtropics and north-east Atlantic indicating that the late-boreal spring/summer season is less active than the boreal winter/early-spring season in forcing the seasonal SSS variability. In the north-eastern mid-latitude Atlantic, SSS is positively correlated to SST, with SSS slightly lagging SST. There are noticeable long-lasting larger-scale signals overlaid on this regional variability. Part of it is related to known climate signals, for example ENSO and NAO. A linear trend is present during the first half of the period in some parts of the basin (usually towards increasing salinities, at least between 20°N and 45°N). Based on a linear regression analysis, these signals combined can locally represent up to 20% of SSS variance (in particular near 30°N/60°W or 40°N/10–30°W), but usually represent less than 10% of the variance.  相似文献   

4.
At interannual to multidecadal time scales, much of the oceanographic and climatic variability in the North Atlantic Ocean can be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While evidence suggests that there is a relationship between the NAO and zooplankton dynamics in the North Atlantic Ocean, the phytoplankton response to NAO-induced changes in the environment is less clear. Time series of monthly mean phytoplankton colour values, as compiled by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, are analysed to infer relationships between the NAO and phytoplankton dynamics throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. While a few areas display highly significant (p < 0.05) trends in the CPR colour time series during the period 1948–2000, nominally significant (p < 0.20) positive trends are widespread across the basin, particularly on the continental shelves and in a transition zone stretching across the Central North Atlantic. When long-term trends are removed from both the NAO index and CPR colour time series, the correlation between them ceases to be significant. Several hypotheses are proposed to explain the observed variability in the CPR colour and its relationship with climate in the North Atlantic.  相似文献   

5.
The existence and spatial distribution of possible teleconnections between the South Pacific and North Atlantic oceans and the Ligurian Sea (North-western Mediterranean) are investigated in the present paper. Teleconnections are searched by cross-correlating monthly spatio-temporal time series of 1.1 km resolution sea surface temperature (SST), and a 22.2 km resolution sea level anomaly (SLA), measured from satellite from March 1993 to August 1999, with two indices characterising the South Pacific and the North Atlantic variability: the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices, respectively. Concerning the variability induced by the North Atlantic Ocean, it is shown that it mostly influences the SLA field in the Ligurian Sea. Specifically, relevant anti-correlations between SLA and North Atlantic variability have been found in all the Ligurian sub-basin. As expected by geographical proximity, the effects of North Atlantic on the SLA field in the Ligurian Sea are instantaneous at monthly time scales. Instead, correlations between SST and NAO Index are found at time lag τ = 1 month in the southern part of the basin highlighting the memory of the ocean related to their heat capacity. Significant anti-correlations between SO Index and the SST field in the Ligurian Sea, were obtained at time lag τ = 4 months in the coastal areas of the sub-basin. Results also indicate that the impact of teleconnections in the area studied is not geographically uniform.  相似文献   

6.
By using archival monthly data for 100 yr, we analyze the statistical structure of time series characterizing the variability of the Azores High and Iceland Low. We show that there exists a long-term tendency towards approach of the centers of action of the atmosphere (CAA) in the North Atlantic and their strengthening. At the same time, quasiperiodic decadal intensification of the CAA is accompanied by an increase in the distance between them. In the spectra of sea-level pressure in the Azores High and Iceland Low, significant peaks for periods of 2–5 and 10 yr are strongly pronounced. Furthermore, oscillations with a period 50 yr are clearly seen. The main contribution to the interannual changes in the index of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is made by pressure variability in the Iceland Low. Different ways of behavior are characteristic of the CAA for time scales of 2–7, 7–15, and more than 15 yr. Each of these variability intervals is analyzed separately. We established a significant correlation between the index of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and characteristics of the CAA of the North Atlantic only for time scales of 7–15 yr. It demonstrates that, as the SO index increases in autumn, the pressure at the center of the Azores High grows and the latitudinal distance between the Azores High and Iceland Low decreases, i.e., the zonal circulation in the North Atlantic becomes more intense. We also discuss possible mechanisms of the obtained statistical relations.  相似文献   

7.
A gridded monthly terrestrial precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia data set and the UK Met Office Northern Hemisphere mean sea level pressure data are used to investigate interdecadal changes in the relationships between precipitation variability over Europe and atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic–European sector during boreal spring and fall.
Singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, performed for the climatic periods of strong/weak links to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during spring and fall, revealed considerable interdecadal changes both in the strength and the structure of the links between European precipitation and regional atmospheric circulation. During periods of strong links to the NAO, the leading SVD mode is characterized by the NAO-like meridional dipole in sea level pressure (SLP) fields and associated opposite precipitation variations over northern/southern Europe. When the links to the NAO are weak, the leading SVD mode is represented by the tripole pattern in SLP fields over the North Atlantic–European region, driving regional precipitation variability both in spring and fall. Further correlation analysis has shown that this mode is associated with the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern (SCA). Thus, for the considered seasons during periods of weak NAO influence, the SCA plays a role of major driver of the regional precipitation variability.  相似文献   

8.
The first empirical orthogonal functions (EOF1s) of surface-air temperature fluctuations for Russia and its neighboring states within the period 1950–2005 are analyzed. The spatial distribution of the EOF1, the first principal components (PC1s) of the observed air temperature (averaged over the summer, July, December–March, and individual winter months), and their time variations (including trend parameters, some spectral characteristics, and the quantitative indices of relation to circulation indices (on the basis of multiple step-by-step regression)) are considered. Significant seasonal differences have been revealed: the winter air-temperature fluctuations are characterized by a higher (when compared to summer) spatial coherence, especially in the latitudinal direction. The EOF1 of the winter air temperature (averaged over December–March) describes its fluctuations for almost all of Russia; in this case, no less than 70% of the PC1 variability is due to variations in several circulation indices; the main contribution (60%) is made by both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian (SCAND) indices. On the whole, over the periods 1951–2005 and 1971–2005, the NAO contribution exceeds the SCAND contribution to the winter temperature variability; the NAO is associated with a more rapid increase in air temperature in 1968–1997 and with the 1971–2005 trend. In 1951–1970 the main contribution to air temperature fluctuations was made by SCAND; the SCAND contribution exceeds the NAO contribution in the periods 1951–2005 and 1971–2005. The 1971–2005 and 1968–1997 temperature trends are completely described by variations in the NAO (70%) and SCAND (30%) indices for January and February.  相似文献   

9.
Based on the data on the sea-surface temperature (SST), the heat content of the upper 200-m layer, and the sea-level pressure, we analyze the low-frequency variability of the SST and heat content in the North Atlantic in 1950–1992 and the index of North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in 1940–1995. It is confirmed that the role of the ocean and various mechanisms controlling the variability of SST changes for processes corresponding to different time scales (interannual, decadal, and interdecadal). It is shown that the interaction of tropical and subtropical latitudes is of principal importance on the interannual scale, the processes regulating the variability of subtropical gyre are important on the decadal scale, and the variations of the NAO with lower frequencies are controlled by the oceanic variability at high latitudes. We discuss possible feedbacks in the ocean–atmosphere system maintaining the NAO.  相似文献   

10.
The connection between variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the Baltic sea level has been investigated for the period 1825–1997. The association between the NAO and the strength of the zonal geostrophic wind stress over the Northwest Atlantic suggests an NAO impact on Baltic sea level variations, because the monthly mean sea level mainly is determined by externally driven variations caused by wind conditions over the North Sea. Several period bands were found to have high correlation between oscillations in the winter (JFM) NAO index and the Baltic Sea winter mean sea level. The correlation was, however, higher in the 20th century than in the 19th. During the last two decades, the correlation between the NAO index and the sea level has been exceptionally high. The winter mean of a regional atmospheric circulation index had a correlation with the Kattegat winter mean sea level of 0.93. With the Baltic sea level the correlation was 0.91, compared with the NAO index correlation for the same period of 0.74. The regional index also showed a high correlation with the mean summer and mean autumn sea levels, when the corresponding seasonal NAO indices showed a weak connection. The temporal variation of the connection with the NAO index implies a regional atmospheric circulation occasionally differing from the large-scale circulation associated with the NAO. Seasonal means of the sea level in Stockholm do, however, reflect the regional wind climate to a large extent, and the Baltic sea level is a useful proxy for identifications of climatic dependencies in the region.  相似文献   

11.
Gridded fields of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), and wind speed were used in combination with data for the atmospheric mole fraction of CO2 and an empirical relationship between measured values of the fugacity of carbon dioxide in surface water and SST, to calculate the air–sea CO2 flux in the northern North Atlantic. The flux was calculated for each of the months October–March, in the time period 1981 until 2001, allowing for an assessment of the interannual variations in the region. Locally and on a monthly time scale, the interannual variability of the flux could be as high as ±100% in regions seasonally covered by sea ice. However, in open-ocean areas the variability was normally between ±20% and ±40%. The interannual variability was found to be approximately halved when fluxes averaged over each winter season were compared. Summarised over the whole northern North Atlantic, the air to sea carbon flux over winter totalled 0.08 Gton, with an interannual variability of about ±7%. On a monthly basis the interannual variations were slightly higher, about ±8% to ±13%. Changes in wind speed and atmospheric fCO2 (the latter directly related to SLP variations) accounted for most of the interannual variations of the computed air–sea CO2 fluxes. A tendency for increasing CO2 flux into the ocean with increasing values of the NAO index was identified.  相似文献   

12.
The linear and quadratic trends of the parameters of interaction of the atmosphere with the ocean in the North Atlantic are computed according to the archival data of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center accumulated for 1957–1990. The linear trends are regarded as probable manifestations of the anthropogenic processes. At the same time, the quadratic trends are regarded as manifestations of natural low-frequency oscillations with a characteristic period of ~65 yr. The linear trends of the sea-surface temperature (SST) and the surface air temperature (SAT) are negative at high latitudes. The thermal (SST—SAT) contrasts and the deficiency of humidity E decrease over the most part of the investigated water area, thus revealing the active influence of the North Atlantic on the trends of SAT caused by the negative feedback in the system supported by the changes in the evident and latent heat fluxes. The significant quadratic trends of various hydrometeorological parameters and total heat fluxes confirm the predominance of natural variability with a period of ~65 yr in the North Atlantic. The quadratic trend of the heat fluxes is mainly caused by the quadratic trend of E. The coincidence of the phases of long-period anomalies of the SAT and E over the major part of the North Atlantic reveals the decisive role of the variability of the ocean in supporting the interdecadal oscillations in the ocean—atmosphere system.Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 19–38, July–August, 2004.  相似文献   

13.
The spatial structure of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the 20th century is studied from the data obtained over the period 1892–1999. The expansion of the mean (over the winter and summer periods) SAT anomalies into empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) is used for analysis. It is shown that variations in the mean air temperature in the Arctic region (within the latitudes 60°–90°N) during both the winter and summer periods can be described with a high accuracy by two spatial orthogonal modes of variability. For the winter period, these are the EOF related to the leading mode of variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the NH, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the spatially localized (in the Arctic) EOF, which describes the Arctic warming of the mid-20th century. The expansion coefficient of this EOF does not correlate with the indices of atmospheric circulation and is hypothetically related to variations in the area of the Arctic ice cover that are due to long-period variations in the influx of oceanic heat from the Atlantic. On the whole, a significantly weaker relation to the atmospheric circulation is characteristic of the summer period. The first leading variability mode describes a positive temperature trend of the past decades, which is hypothetically related to global warming, while the second leading EOF describes a long-period oscillation. On the whole, the results of analysis suggest a significant effect of natural climatic variability on air-temperature anomalies in the NH high latitudes and possible difficulties in isolating an anthropogenic component of climate changes.  相似文献   

14.
基于PMIP2气候模式模拟的中全新世北大西洋涛动   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
根据PMIP2中的4个海气耦合模式对中全新世气候的模拟结果,利用现代和中全新世两个时间段的冬季海平面气压场(SLP),分析了北大西洋海平面气压的变化情况并计算了这两个时间段的北大西洋涛动(NAO)指数。结果表明,中全新世亚速尔高压加强,冰岛低压加深,南北气压差增加,NAO强度显著增强。对中全新世北大西洋地区SLP进行经验正交函数(EOF)分析显示,4个模式均能捕捉到了NAO的主要结构。中全新世NAO处于正位相的时间较现代提高了10%~30%,其中MIROC3.2提高了29.3%;虽然NAO指数振幅变化不大,但还是能显示中全新世NAO显著强于现代,这与地质资料恢复的结果相一致。对NAO指数的多窗谱分析显示,现代NAO指数存在3~5 a的准周期变化,中全新世NAO指数存在3 a的准周期变化。NAO对中全新世亚洲地区冬季增温有重要影响。北大西洋地区中纬度海面温度(SST)的增温可能是导致中全新世NAO强度增强的一个重要因素。  相似文献   

15.
Both the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the North Atlantic Ocean (NA) biosphere have recognized associations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These multidecadal physical–biological affinities inspired a closer look at AMOC influences on bottom-up control of NA and South Atlantic Ocean (SA) pelagic ecosystem variability. Various ocean models associate changes in the AMOC with sea surface temperature (SST) differences in the western subpolar NA and SA represented as the Atlantic Dipole SST Anomaly (ADSA) index. The Extended Reconstructed SST version 2 (ERSSTv2) dataset for 2° quadrangles from 1890 to 2007 was used here to represent Atlantic Ocean SST patterns and to gauge 20th century AMOC variability using an Atlantic Dipole SST (ADS) index, an un-normalized version of ADSA index. Temperature–phosphate (T–PO4) linear regressions were used to convert temperature to phosphate concentration ([PO4]). The interannual stability of T–PO4 linear regressions first was examined using 26 Bermuda area T–PO4 datasets between 1958 and 2001. Within the constraints provided by the Bermuda analysis, climatological T–PO4 linear regressions based on GEOSECS-derived slopes and NODC-derived X-intercepts supported the conversion of monthly Atlantic Ocean ERSSTv2 temperatures for each 2° quadrangle to monthly surface [PO4]. A representative annual surface phosphate utilization (SPU) was calculated for each 2° quadrangle by subtracting monthly minimum surface [PO4] from monthly maximum surface [PO4] to determine the annual surface [PO4] ranges from 1890 to 2007. Annual average SST tended to increase and overall annual average SPU tended to decrease through the 20th century in both the NA and SA, but the NA exhibited more temporal variability. An Atlantic Dipole Phosphate Utilization (ADPU) index related to the ADS index was calculated for each year from 1890 to 2007. The ADS and ADPU indices were inversely correlated with about 57% of the variability in the ADPU index explained by the ADS index. The ADPU index exhibited three distinct cycles through the 20th century. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the NAO led the ADS and ADPU indices by about 14 years. Differences in annual average SPU for each Atlantic Ocean 2° quadrangle between the three high and four low years of the ADPU cycles yielded six maps that, when averaged, clearly exhibited reversed east–west patterns distributed in alternating latitudinal bands in both the NA and SA. The east–west patterns spatially corresponded to the NA and SA surface circulation and temporally resembled NA patterns previously associated with the NAO. AMOC variability, mediated by Kelvin and Rossby waves associated with changes in both deep and surface arm circulation, likely contributed to meridional continuity of phosphate-classified, NA, and SA pelagic ecosystem variability, including fisheries, through the 20th century. Based on the results, future global warming influences on the AMOC, well short of shutdown, likely will have complex pelagic ecosystem impacts throughout the Atlantic Ocean.  相似文献   

16.
How are large western hemisphere warm pools formed?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
During the boreal summer the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) stretches from the eastern North Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic and is a key feature of the climate of the Americas and Africa. In the summers following nine El Niño events during 1950–2000, there have been five instances of extraordinarily large warm pools averaging about twice the climatological annual size. These large warm pools have induced a strengthened divergent circulation aloft and have been associated with rainfall anomalies throughout the western hemisphere tropics and subtropics and with more frequent hurricanes. However, following four other El Niño events large warm pools did not develop, such that the mere existence of El Niño during the boreal winter does not provide the basis for predicting an anomalously large warm pool the following summer.In this paper, we find consistency with the hypothesis that large warm pools result from an anomalous divergent circulation forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, the so-called atmospheric bridge. We also find significant explanations for why large warm pools do not always develop. If the El Niño event ends early in the eastern Pacific, the Pacific warm anomaly lacks the persistence needed to force the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic portion of the warm pool remains normal. If SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific do not last much beyond February of the following year, then the eastern North Pacific portion of the warm pool remains normal. The overall strength of the Pacific El Niño does not appear to be a critical factor. We also find that when conditions favor a developing atmospheric bridge and the winter atmosphere over the North Atlantic conforms to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern (as in 1957–58 and 1968–69), the forcing is reinforced and the warm pool is stronger. On the other hand, if a positive NAO pattern develops the warm pool may remain normal even if other circumstances favor the atmospheric bridge, as in 1991–92. Finally, we could find little evidence that interactions internal to the tropical Atlantic are likely to mitigate for or against the formation of the largest warm pools, although they may affect smaller warm pool fluctuations or the warm pool persistence.  相似文献   

17.
In recent decades it has been recognized that in the North Atlantic climatic variability has been largely driven by atmospheric forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index began a pronounced decline around 1950 to a low in the 1960s. From 1970 onward the NAO index increased to its most extreme and persistent positive phase during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Changes in the pattern of the NAO have differential impacts on the opposite sides of the North Atlantic and differential impacts in the north and south. The changes in climate resulting from changes in the NAO appear to have had substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, in particular, on fish productivity, with the effects varying from region to region. An examination of several species and stocks, e.g. gadoids, herring and plankton in the Northeast Atlantic and cod and shellfish in the Northwest Atlantic, indicates that there is a link between long-term trends in the NAO and the productivity of various components of the marine ecosystem. While broad trends are evident, the mechanisms are poorly understood. Further research is needed to improve our understanding of how this climate variability affects the productivity of various components of the North Atlantic marine ecosystem.  相似文献   

18.
The climatology of intense winter cyclone events in the eastern North Atlantic responsible for high magnitude surge generation (top 1% of events) within the region of the South-Western Approaches to northwest France and southwest England is extracted from daily sea-level and 500-hPa level atmospheric pressure analyses. Cluster analysis yields discrete cyclone track regimes linked to upper airflow patterns being responsible for the generation of intense storms (central pressure at sea-level ≤990 hPa) which promote severe surge events ≥60 cm along the French coast of the South-Western Approaches. Fluctuations in storminess are strongly influenced by the southward intrusion and strengthening of the jet stream in mid-Atlantic. These occurrences are often associated with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies near Newfoundland and a strengthening of the thermal gradient across the Atlantic well to the south of its normal position. Resultant cyclogenesis promotes storms displaying a delay in minimum central pressure attainment until well east of 14°W, encouraging enhancement of surge flow. Stepwise multiple regression analysis indicates that the most influential variables in promoting severe surge events in the South-Western Approaches are trans-Atlantic sea surface temperature gradients. The most important influence is the prevailing west–east sea surface temperature gradient during the month of the storm, followed by that for the prior month of the storm and thirdly, the north–south sea surface temperature gradient prevailing during the month of the event. Other influential variables reflect the character of the cyclone, storm duration, mean deepening rate of storm central pressure, the value of the outermost closed isobar around the storm centre, and the longitudinal position of the outermost closed isobar to the right of the cyclone track. In contrast, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is not very effective as a discriminator of surge activity. This may reflect the greater intra-month volatility of parameters used to derive the NAO index than of other monthly variables considered in the study. The lack of resolvability at the individual storm level probably also arises because of the monthly detailing of the NAO against storms of 2–3 days duration. This behavioural model of extreme storminess in the South-Western Approaches to northwest France provides the basis by which extremes of coastal susceptibility can be calibrated.  相似文献   

19.
Correlations between the changes in the climate of the Caspian Sea region and in its level and the variations in the North Atlantic climate are studied. The indices of North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), the intensity of Atlantic thermohaline circulation (ATHC), and the air humidity above the North Atlantic are used as basic indicators of climatic variations that influence the Caspian Sea. Results of an experiment for reproducing the World Ocean circulation and the parameterization of cyclic climate peculiarities made it possible to reveal their impact on the formation of Eurasian climatic variability and on the level regime of the Caspian Sea. This impact is studied through the variability of ATHC, the NAO index, and a composite index of moisture transport (CIMT) that is proposed as a result of the studies.  相似文献   

20.
Atmospheric and oceanic pCO2 were measured continuously along an Atlantic Meridional transect (50°N–50°S) in September–October 1995 and 1996 (U.K. to the Falklands Islands) and in April–May 1996 (Falklands Islands to the UK). The Atlantic ocean was a net sink for atmospheric CO2 for all 3 transects. The largest sinks were located at high latitudes, in regions of high wind speed, where strong CO2 undersaturations, associated with high biological activity, were observed. In these regions the partial pressure difference between the ocean and the atmosphere reached −110 μatm. A CO2 source occurred in the equatorial region between 0° and 10°S, where ΔpCO2 of up to 40 μatm was found. Another source was in the northern subtropical gyre where its extension varied according to the season. Along the whole transect the October cruises exhibited similar pCO2 distributions suggesting a dominance of the seasonal variability and small year to year changes.  相似文献   

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