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1.
Iordanka Dountcheva David Sanz Eduardo Cassiraga Vassil Galabov Juan José Gómez-Alday 《水文研究》2020,34(25):5134-5145
The objective of this study was to analyse periodicities and the long-term variability of monthly Júcar River–Mancha Oriental Aquifer interactions (RAI) and regionally measured precipitation (PP) with special focus on the correlations between these local hydrological variables and the large climatic patterns governing the Iberian Peninsula, represented by their teleconnection indices – the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOi) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi). To that end, wavelet analysis has been applied since it not only provides insight into the time-series dynamics but also permits statistical interpretation and correlation analysis. As a result, several periodicities have been detected: intermittent semi-annual periodicity in PP and the NAOi and annual periodicity in the RAI, NAOi and WeMOi time series. Long cycles (approximately 14 years) are also observed in the PP and WeMOi time series. The cross-wavelet spectra show a correlation between the RAI and the rest of the variables on the semi-annual and the annual scales, while wavelet coherence detects common behaviour with longer cycles – 5–6 years between the NAOi and the RAI and cycles of both 1–5 years and 7–10 years between PP and the RAI. Furthermore, results show that the periodicities in the teleconnection indices and precipitation propagate into the RAI with certain lead times: 3 months between the RAI and PP and 6 months between the RAI and the NAOi. The results indicate that the detected periodicities and the coherence between the studied variables could have applications in strategic planning on a river basin scale, taking into account the propagation times and the frequency scale. This methodological approach can be applied into strategic water resource planning independently of the geographical location of the hydrogeological system, the basin size and the climate region. 相似文献
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Milan Stojković Jasna Plavšić Stevan Prohaska Dragutin Pavlović Jovan Despotović 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(3):387-400
ABSTRACTClimate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070. 相似文献
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Isotopic climate records in tree rings were obtained by the δD analyses of the hydrogen in cellulose nitrate extracted from tree rings in a Scots pine from Loch Affric, Scotland, and from a bristlecone pine from the White Mountains, California. This method of analysis measures δD values of only the isotopically non-exchangeable hydrogen of the cellulose in wood and thus eliminates serious complications in the δD record caused by the chemical heterogeneity of wood and by the isotopic exchangeability of some of its hydrogen. The average δD values of the two pines are markedly different, reflecting the contrasting climates of the two areas. The bristlecone δD record contains a 22-year periodicity perhaps recording a possible 20- to 22-year periodicity of drought conditions in the Great Plains of North America. There is no such significant periodicity in the δD record of the Scots pine.The long-term δD trends in the two pines, as represented by 40-year running averages of the δD data, correlate linearly over the time period 1841–1970 A.D., which is the total growth period of the Scots pine. The long-term δD trend of the Scots pine correlates well with the 1841–1970 winter temperatures of Edinburgh, Scotland.The long-term δD trend of the bristlecone pine, which extends over the time period 970–1970 A.D., correlates qualitatively with long-term climatic trends estimated by LaMarche from tree ring width data and by Lamb from many sources of climatic data.δD analyses were also made on early and late woods from the same annual ring. The δD values of these woods differ to various degrees and the sign of the difference can also vary. 相似文献
5.
Vadim A. Kravchinsky Valentina S. Zykina Vladimir S. Zykin 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2008,265(3-4):498-514
The loess–paleosol sequences of China, Siberia, Alaska and many other regions, along with lake sediments and glaciers, provide the only accurate paleoclimatic terrestrial records for intervals of thousands to hundreds of thousand years. The frequency dependence (FD) of magnetic susceptibility (MS) in such sequences has become the leading parameter for analyzing climatic change and Milankovitch (astronomical) periodicity in Siberian sequences; it is always higher in soil horizons than in loess. The enhanced FD parameter in soils is associated with ferromagnetic minerals, mostly magnetite, produced during pedogenesis. The MS and FD parameters of 670 samples from five sections in Siberia are reported here. Inter-section correlation is used to produce a combined FD time series for the studied sections. Chronological control is established by absolute dating and stratigraphic correlation. Spectral analysis of the FD time series reveals the presence of Milankovitch signals at ～100 kyr (eccentricity), ～40 kyr (obliquity) and ～23 kyr (precession) and demonstrates that Siberian loess–paleosol sequences are excellent continental recorders of long-term paleoclimatic changes. This suggests that the FD parameter can potentially be used more widely for evaluation of climate periodicity in loess/paleosol sequences in other parts of the world. 相似文献
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A. A. Gusev 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2011,51(1):131-138
Many climatic parameters (ground and ocean surface temperatures, pressure, atmospheric precipitation, etc.) have temporal
variations with characteristic periods from several to several tens of years or more. The unknown cause of these oscillations,
together with the similarity of some of them to known solar cycles, has stimulated attempts to relate these two phenomena.
The basic arguments against the existence of such a relationship are that variations in climatic parameters do not always
occur synchronously with the corresponding 11- and 22-year solar cycles: the phase shift between climatic and solar variations
is inconstant and changes with time from 0° to 180°. In addition, the energy of terrestrial manifestations of solar activity
seems insufficient to stimulate the considered weather-climatic processes, at least within the limits of the linear approach.
In the present work, it is shown that in some cases, these contradictions can be removed for variations with a period more
than 11 years under the assumption that climatic variations are forced oscillations driven by an external force (for example,
a force related to solar activity), that implies the existence of intrinsic (natural) climatic oscillations. The result serves
as an additional argument in favor of the reality of a sun-climate connection and probably points to its probable nonlinear
mechanism. 相似文献
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地磁活动是太阳爆发现象引起地球近地空间磁场扰动的重要空间天气过程之一.地球磁场的变化具有多种时间尺度,其中从数十年到数世纪的长时间地磁场变化主要是由地核磁场引起的,而从数秒到数年的短时间地磁变化与太阳活动有关.近年来,越来越多的统计研究表明,地磁活动与太阳活动和地球气候变化之间存在着显著的相关性.地球磁场和地球大气系统的耦合现象驱动着人们探索地磁活动对地球天气和气候系统影响的研究.本文的目的就是综述国内外地磁变化对气候影响的研究进展,介绍我们最新的研究成果,探索地磁活动对气候要素的影响特征和可能机理过程,为深入研究地磁活动对地球天气和气候的影响提供基础和依据,以期对地磁活动和气候要素关系有进一步的认识. 相似文献
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Abstract The effects induced on the climate by human activity have become a major issue for the new millennium. In order to arrive at sustainable conclusions it is necessary, first of all, to assess and quantify natural climatic changes. In general this is done by analysing available time series. In the case of historical hydrometeorological data sets, a comparative analysis with solar cycles is not usually conducted. This work, however, demonstrates that the effect of solar cycles observed at the Equator is also visible at middle and high latitudes with multiple periodicity of the basic solar frequency (roughly 11 years). This could well be due to the interaction between solar forcing and circulation mechanisms within the atmosphere, i.e. water-air-soil interactions coupled with anthropogenic forcing. This theory has been tested by comparing different types of historical data series with the River Po discharges and cyclic appearance of slime bloom in the Adriatic Sea. 相似文献
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我国西部内陆型晚冰期环境特征的湖相沉积记录 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
根据新疆东部巴里坤湖沉积地层及孢粉,地球化学元素和有机质含量波动特征,同时结合年代的测定,本文对由其所揭示的晚冰期中的几次冰阶与间冰阶交替出现的内陆型环境演变行征进行了研究,指出此阶段中环境演变仍具有相对冷湿与晚干交替的匹配模式。广泛的区域性对比表明,它的出现具有全球一致性,同时又具有区域性差异特征,这种非线性的气候变化对于研究气候突变事件的发生机制具有重要意义。 相似文献
10.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Possible causes of the ~60-year periodicity observed in climatic characteristics and the evolution of long-term correlation links between the circulation of the lower... 相似文献
11.
A Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis of the geological time series of the oxygen isotope 18 for the last 782,000 years showed 98,000 years as the most prominent periodicity, followed by 40,000 years of less than half the amplitude and still smaller peaks at 24,000, 67,000, 84,000, 107,000 and 786,000 years. Among the astronomical parameters, only eccentricity showed a similar periodicity viz. 96,000 years. Obliquity had a prominent periodicity at 41,000 years which was reflected in the oxygen isotope series also. Corresponding to the bimodal precession peaks (23,000 and 19,000 years), the oxygen isotope series showed a peak at 24,000 years and smaller peaks at 22,000 and 19,000 years. Our results compare well with those obtained byThomson (1990) with a more sophisticated method. 相似文献
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中国大陆及邻区地震活动周期及显著性检验 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文针对中国大陆及邻区和中国大陆地区的不同起始震级的地震资料的不同时间段、 不同数据预处理的地震应变能(贝尼奥夫应变)进行小波分析, 研究不同区域的地震活动周期谱及其显著性水平(即置信度), 结果表明: ① 在中国大陆及邻区的地震活动周期谱中, 23年左右周期的置信度超过95%; 45年和90年左右周期的置信度为90%左右。 ② 中国大陆地区存在明显的25年左右周期, 置信度超过95%, 而其它周期并不明显。 ③ 无论是中国大陆地区还是中国大陆及邻区, 同一个周期的置信度随计算资料的起始震级减小而降低。 特别是中国大陆地区和大陆及邻区都存在置信度超过95%的23～25年周期对于地震的活跃与平静预测具有现实意义。 而中国大陆及邻区地震活动的数十年或百年尺度的周期在地震趋势估计中是不应该被忽视的因素。 相似文献
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The decadal variation in the length of day and in the Earth's magnetic field is analyzed by empirical mode decomposition (EMD). The existence of a periodicity of about 60-years in the Earth's angular velocity has often been inferred and is confirmed here, with a new estimate of approximately 62 years. The existence of a similar periodicity in the geomagnetic field has been controversial. From the time series analyses presented here of the magnetic declination at 10 observatories, it is concluded that a geomagnetic periodicity of about 62?±?3 years does exist. A similar analysis of the magnetic inclination at five observatories gives a period of 58?±?5 years. The declination data from four observatories is found to correlate with the length of day signal, with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.6. 相似文献
14.
O.M. Raspopov V.A. Dergachev M.G. Ogurtsov T. Kolström H. Jungner P.B. Dmitriev 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2011,73(2-3):388-399
Unique palaeoclimatic data with annual time resolution as tree ring widths and annual varve deposits are analyzed in order to reveal periodicities in climatic processes at tens to hundreds of million years ago. The climatic periodicities thus found are compared with the solar and climatic periodicities observed at present. 相似文献
15.
总结了中国大陆8级地震活动的基本特征,30年、53年及100年周期性,百年主体活动区及其格局变动,大地震空段填位及迁移,成组性,几十年多阶段强震释放特征及其连发、复发特点.根据当前地震活动图像异常评估认为,未来1～5年中国大陆喜马拉雅山带西段可能发生71/2～8级地震,以及新疆,川、滇4处为注意地段. 相似文献
16.
An integrated statistical approach to identify the nonlinear trend of runoff in the Hotan River and its relation with climatic factors 总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3
Jianhua Xu Yaning Chen Weihong Li Yang Yang Yulian Hong 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(2):223-233
A number of studies have indicated a transition from warm-dry to warm-wet climate in Northwest China after the 1980s. This
transition was characterized by an increase in temperature and precipitation, added river runoff volume, increased lake water
surface elevation and area, and elevated groundwater table. However, some literatures showed that the Hotan River has presented
a contrary situation, i.e. the runoff decreased, whereas temperature and precipitation increased. In order to discover the
nonlinear runoff trend and its causes in the Hotan River, based on the related data from hydrological stations, ground and
air sounding meteorological stations, this study applied a comprehensive method combing correlation analysis, wavelet analysis
and regression analysis to investigate the runoff change in the Hotan River with its relevant climatic factors over the past
decades. The main findings are: (a) the hydrological process of the Hotan River is a nonlinear system, with a periodicity
of 24 year cycle, and it shows different nonlinear trends at different time scales; (b) the data from the ground meteorological
stations in the Hotan area shows a false appearance that there is almost no correlation between runoff and temperature, and
a little negative correlation between runoff and precipitation; (c) but the data from air sounding meteorological stations
shows the truth that there is a close relation between the runoff in the Hotan River and the 0°C level height in summer on
the north slope of Kunlun Mountains. The two variables present a same periodicity, i.e. 24-year cycle, having similar nonlinear
trends and significant correlations at different time scales. 相似文献
17.
《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(7-12):297-308
The New Caledonia SW lagoon is wide (5–20 nautical miles) and semi-closed. It is influenced by both the open ocean and the high island within a meteorological context subject to seasonal, inter-annual and longer term variations. The short-term variability (>1 day) of meteorological, hydrographical and planktonic parameters is illustrated by a 5-month long time series and is linked to local or remote wind, and precipitation. Seasonal and inter-annual variabilities, inferred from a 10-year long station by spectral analysis, appear clearly for all parameters. Seasonality is the main scale of variability as the island lies near the tropic of Capricorn. Inter-annual variability of a 3–4 year periodicity is poorly related to the Southern oscillation index (an equatorial climatic index), stressing the need for a separate tropical index. Long term trends appear on several parameters but their reliability depends on the length of the records. Considering only the longest records (1958–2005), surface temperature appears to have increased since the end of the 1960s in Noumea area. Finally, as a result of greater terrestrial influence, shallower depths, and longer water turnover times close to shore, the temporal variability amplitude decreases from the shore to the barrier reef. 相似文献
18.
The most reliable data on a change in the intensity of cosmic rays and geomagnetic field on large time scales have been analyzed, and the relations between changes in these processes and climate during the last 1.5 Myr have been studied. An analysis indicated that the climate of the Earth is affected by changes in the Earth’s orbit parameters and geomagnetic dipole values; however, the climate responds to these changes with a delay of 10 kyr and immediately, respectively. In this case about two thirds of the effect of eccentricity on 18O is implemented via an intermediate chain: virtual axial dipole moment, changes in which can be related to changes in eccentricity. Thus, an analysis of the accumulated data on the processes, proceeding in the Earth’s atmosphere during the interaction with cosmic rays on the scales of several years to several hundreds of thousand years, indicates that the cosmophysical factor of influence on climate cannot be rejected. To make the conclusion more convincing, it is necessary to collect data for the studied time interval in a much wider region, to more accurately date samples, and to study the response of the climatic system to the external influence. 相似文献
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地震是破坏性很大的自然灾害,世界上没有一个地方比中国和东亚沿海地区经历过更多的地震。同样的,干旱、洪水以及其它气候灾害也是世界上屡见不鲜的事件。本文提出了将这两种地球物理现象联系起来的理论。 早在80年代初期,便已提出气候变化的决定性的分析模式。该模式与古气候时间序列相符合,并可用于预报,它成功地经受过几年的检验。早先对该模式在地质时标上的核实,在这里我们将之延伸到近代历史。并且根据万有引力常数(G)随时间变化的可能性提出了关于气候变化原因的解释。G的变化意味着构造活动性(如地震)与气候特性(如由模式所表示的全球温度变化)的同步变化。因此,该模式也为地震预报提供了希望。 作者提出了解释在某一时间段内不同地区地震活动性的交替的理论。该理论通过对中国廿世纪发生的里克特震级大于或等于6的许多地震的检验。在小比例尺地形制图精度以及在震中定位的低灵敏度范围内,所获结果是令人鼓舞的 相似文献