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1.
Tomoki Tozuka Jing-Jia Luo Sebastien Masson Swadhin K. Behera Toshio Yamagata 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2005,39(1-2):41
Using an output from 200-year integration of the Scale Interaction Experiment of EU project-F1 model (SINTEX-F1), the annual ENSO reproduced in the coupled general circulation model is investigated, suggesting the importance of reproducing an annual cycle in realistically simulating ENSO events. Although many features of the annual ENSO are reproduced, the northward expansion of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the eastern tropical Pacific stays south of the equator. It is suggested that this model bias is due to the excitation of the too strong Rossby waves in the southeastern tropical Pacific, which reflect at the western boundary and intrude into the eastern equatorial Pacific. The zonal wind stress anomaly along the equator also plays an important role in generating the equatorial Kelvin waves. The amplitude of SSTA for the annual ENSO mode is reproduced, but its variance is only 20% of the observation; this is again due to the lack of northward migration of seasonal SSTA in the equatorial region and weaker coastal Kelvin waves along South America. Remedies for the model bias are discussed. 相似文献
2.
Spatial and temporal structures of interannual-to-decadal variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean are investigated using results from a global atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model. The model produces quite realistic mean state characteristics, despite a sea surface temperature cold bias and a thermocline that is shallower than observations in the western Pacific. The periodicity and spatial patterns of the modelled El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) compare well with those observed over the last 100 years, although the quasi-biennial timescale is dominant. Lag-regression analysis between the mean zonal wind stress and the 20°C isotherm depth suggests that the recently proposed recharge-oscillator paradigm is operating in the model. Decadal thermocline variability is characterized by enhanced variance over the western tropical South Pacific (~7°S). The associated subsurface temperature variability is primarily due to adiabatic displacements of the thermocline as a whole, arising from Ekman pumping anomalies located in the central Pacific, south of the equator. Related wind anomalies appear to be caused by SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This quasi-decadal variability has a timescale between 8 years and 20 years. The relationship between this decadal tropical mode and the low-frequency modulation of ENSO variance is also discussed. Results question the commonly accepted hypothesis that the low-frequency modulation of ENSO is due to decadal changes of the mean state characteristics. 相似文献
3.
4.
The present study examines the relationship between two types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the central Pacific (CP) ENSO and the eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, and the sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the South Pacific (SP) (20° S–60° S, 145° E–70° W) using NOAA OI SST for the period 1982–2006. The SP SST variability associated with the two types of ENSO varies with season. These two types of ENSO can excite different atmospheric patterns associated with the Pacific–South American mode, through which they influence the SP SST variability. Both the surface turbulent air–sea heat fluxes and the heat advection by Ekman currents (i.e., Ekman heat fluxes) have an important impact on the SST variability. An analysis of the surface mixed layer heat budget indicates that the heat fluxes (the sum of turbulent heat fluxes and Ekman heat fluxes) can effectively explain much of the SST variability related to the two types of ENSO. 相似文献
5.
The westerly anomalies over the tropical pacific and their dynamical effect on the enso cycles during 1980–1994 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
In this paper, the zonal wind anomalies in the lower troposphere over the tropical Pacific during 1980–1994 are analyzed by using the observed data. The results show that during the formation of the 1982/83, 1986/87 and 1991 / 92 ENSO events, there were the larger westerly anomalies in the lower troposphere over the equatorial Pacific. Moreover, it is explained by using the correlation analyses that the westerly anomalies over the equatorial Pacific could cause the warm episodes of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. A simple air-sea coupled model is used to discuss theoretically the dynamical effect of the observed westerly anomalies of wind stress near the sea surface of the equatorial Pacific on the ENSO cycle occurred in the period of 1981–1983. It is shown by using the theoretical calculations of the equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave and Rossby waves responding to the forcing of the observed anomalies of zonal wind stress near the sea surface of the equatorial Pacific that the westerly anomalies of wind stress near the sea surface of the equatorial Pacific make significant dynamical effect on the ENSO cycles occurred in the period of 1982–1983. 相似文献
6.
7.
Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM)
is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from
surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial
“wings” in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit “ENSO-like” decadal patterns. Analytic results are
derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales.
In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal
patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and
a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm
and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific
Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves
that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped
Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside
the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited.
At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted
to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency (reddens the spectrum) of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial
counterpart. At low frequencies, dissipation acts as an additional low pass filter that becomes more effective, as latitude
increases. At the same time, ENSO-driven off-equatorial surface heating anomalies drive mixed layer temperature responses
in both hemispheres. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of surface heat fluxes by the surface mixed
layer act to low pass filter the ENSO-forcing. The resulting off-equatorial variability is therefore more coherent with low
pass filtered (decadal) ENSO indices [e.g. NINO3 sea-surface temperature (SST)] than with unfiltered ENSO indices. Consequently
large correlations between variability and NINO3 extend further poleward on decadal time-scales than they do on interannual
time-scales. This explains why decadal ENSO-like patterns have a broader meridional structure than their interannual counterparts.
This difference in appearance can occur even if ENSO indices do not have any predictability beyond interannual time-scales.
The wings around 15–20°S, and sub-surface variability at many other locations are predictable on interannual and multi-year
time-scales. This includes westward propagating internal RWs within about 25° of the equator. The slowest of these take up
to 4 years to reach the western boundary. This sub-surface predictability has significant oceanographic interest. However,
it is linked to only low levels of SST variability. Consequently, extrapolation of delayed action oscillator theory to decadal
time-scales might not be justified. 相似文献
8.
—Upper ocean thermal data and surface marine observations are used to describe the three-dimensional, basinwide co-evolution
of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific climate system. The phase propagation behavior differs greatly from atmosphere
to ocean, and from equatorial to off-equatorial and from sea surface to subsurface depths in the ocean. Variations in surface
zonal winds and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exhibit a standing pattern without obvious zonal phase propagation. A nonequilibrium
ocean response at subsurface depths is evident, characterized by coherent zonal and meridional propagating anomalies around
the tropical North Pacific: eastward on the equator but westward off the equator. Depending on geographic location, there
are clear phase relations among various anomaly fields. Surface zonal winds and SSTs in the equatorial region fluctuate approximately
in-phase in time, but have phase differences in space. Along the equator, zonal mean thermocline depth (or heat content) anomalies
are in nonequilibrium with the zonal wind stress forcing. Variations in SSTs are not in equilibrium either with subsurface
thermocline changes in the central and western equatorial Pacific, with the former lagging the latter and displaced to the
east. Due to its phase relations to SST and winds, the basinwide temperature anomaly evolution at thermocline depths on an
interannual time scale may determine the slow physics of ENSO, and play a central role in initiating and terminating coupled
air-sea interaction. This observed basinwide phase propagation of subsurface anomaly patterns can be understood partially
as water discharge processes from the western Pacific to the east and further to high latitudes, and partially by the modified
delayed oscillator physics.
Received: 17 January 1997 / Accepted: 10 March 1998 相似文献
9.
Vertical stratification changes at low frequency over the last decades are the largest in the western-central Pacific and have the potential to modify the balance between ENSO feedback processes. Here we show evidence of an increase in thermocline feedback in the western-central equatorial Pacific over the last 50 years, and in particular after the climate shift of 1976. It is demonstrated that the thermocline feedback becomes more effective due to the increased stratification in the vicinity of the mean thermocline. This leads to an increase in vertical advection variability twice as large as the increase resulting from the stronger ENSO amplitude (positive asymmetry) in the eastern Pacific that connects to the thermocline in the western-central Pacific through the basin-scale ‘tilt’ mode. Although the zonal advective feedback is dominant over the western-central equatorial Pacific, the more effective thermocline feedback allows for counteracting its warming (cooling) effect during warm (cold) events, leading to the reduced covariability between SST and thermocline depth anomalies in the NINO4 (160°E–150°W; 5°S–5°N) region after the 1976 climate shift. This counter-intuitive relationship between thermocline feedback strength as derived from the linear relationship between SST and thermocline fluctuations and stratification changes is also investigated in a long-term general circulation coupled model simulation. It is suggested that an increase in ENSO amplitude may lead to the decoupling between eastern and central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies through its effect on stratification and thermocline feedback in the central-western Pacific. 相似文献
10.
Interannual variability of the upper layers of the tropical Atlantic is described based on in situ data. An objective analysis used all available temperature observations of the upper tropical Atlantic between 1979 and 1999 to construct a 4D database. Wind data are used to investigate potential mechanisms which might explain the observed variability. Four remarkable events are described: 1983–1984, 1988–1990, 1994–1995 and 1997–1998. Three of them are characterised as equatorial (1983–1984, 1994–1995, and 1997–1998). The 1988–1990 event is a basin-wide phenomenon which does not involve the same mechanisms as the other three. Results of statistical decomposition in empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) are discussed. There is no evidence of an inter-hemispheric mode on the depth of the 20?°C-isotherm (D20) and heat content comparable to the observed mode for sea surface temperature (SST) fields. Most energetic patterns for D20 and heat content are dominated by the stronger variability in the northern part of the basin. Influences of other climate signals are investigated. Correlations between the winter NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index and our standard variables is marginally significant. A positive NAOW (North Atlantic Oscillation of Winter) is associated with SST cooling in a latitude band between 10°N and 20°N. When applied to the El-Niño index, correlations are much more significant. We found two scales of maximum correlation: at the four month lag after the El-Niño mature phase when the thermocline slope and zonal heat content gradient are maximum along the equator, and at the ten month lag after the mature phase of El-Niño when the thermocline slope weakens and the equatorial gradient of heat content vanished. The correlation with a zonal wind index (average between 30°W–35°W and 2°N–2°S) has been computed. Correlation is maximum at the six month lag when the thermocline slope and the zonal heat content gradient are maximum in the equatorial band. This “Atlantic Niño” mode is influenced by the Pacific Ocean's variability and reaches a maximum one year after a warm event in the eastern Pacific. 相似文献
11.
The present study investigates the role of Kelvin wave propagations along the equatorial Indian Ocean during the 2006–2008 Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The 2006 IOD lasted for seven months, developing in May and reaching its peak in December, while the 2007 and 2008 IODs were short-lived events, beginning in early May and ending abruptly in September, with much weaker amplitudes. Associated with the above IODs, the impulses of the sea surface height (SSH) anomalies reflect the forcing from an intraseasonal time scale, which was important to the evolution of IODs in 2007 and 2008. At the thermocline depth, dominated by the propagation of Kelvin waves, the warming/cooling temperature signals could reach the surface at a particular time. When the force is strong and the local thermocline condition is favorable, the incoming Kelvin waves dramatically impact the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. In July 2007 and late July 2008, the downwelling Kelvin waves, triggered by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the eastern and central equatorial Indian Ocean, suppressed the thermocline in the Sumatra and the Java coast and terminated the IOD, which made those events short-lived and no longer persist into the boreal fall season as the canonical IOD does. 相似文献
12.
东亚持续强冬季风影响赤道海表温度初始异常的数值试验研究 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
通过数值模拟和理论分析 ,文中指出在强东亚季风期间不仅在欧亚大陆和北印度洋出现强大的反气旋环流异常 ,而且通过海气相互作用在北太平洋西部和西北部形成异常气旋式流场 ;在其东南部产生异常反气旋式流场。在这种流场异常的驱动下赤道西太平洋西风加强 ,海面升高 ,海表温度上升 ,赤道中东印度洋和东太平洋东风加强 ,海面降低 ,海表温度下降。证明由于海表温度异常及海表温度变化趋势存在积分关系 ,因此持续的强东亚冬季风所强迫的沿赤道海表温度变化趋势的上述分布的强讯号可以在海洋中存在近一年之久 ,为尔后赤道太平洋 ENSO事件的可能发展提供初始条件 ,也为跨季度气候预测提供前期讯号 相似文献
13.
利用1979-2015年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的月平均降水资料（CMAP）以及英国哈得来中心海表温度月平均资料,采用2009年Kao等定义的中部型ENSO指数,给出了夏季中部型海表温度（SST）异常指数,并分析了中部型ENSO和海洋性大陆（MC）区域气候的联系。结果表明,当夏季中部型海表温度正异常事件发生时,海洋性大陆核心区域（中太平洋）出现显著降水和气温负（正）异常,此时海洋性大陆核心区域有明显的负（正）热源异常,大气受冷却（加热）而下沉（上升）,同时潜热释放之外的非绝热加热表现为负（正）异常,易于导致降水负（正）异常。海洋性大陆区域与中太平洋间主要通过水平环流和垂直环流建立联系。（1）中部型ENSO指数显著正异常时,在对流层低（高）层,海洋性大陆区域和中太平洋间存在由关于赤道的对称气旋性（反气旋性）环流对而形成的直接联系,并使得海洋性大陆区域东部辐散（辐合）偏弱,而海洋性大陆区域西部辐散（辐合）偏强。（2）在垂直剖面上,赤道中太平洋海表温度的正异常和海洋性大陆核心区域的大气异常冷却有利于促使该地区低层赤道西风异常增强并进而利于中部型海表温度正异常的维持,并由此通过反沃克环流圈促进海洋性大陆区域下沉运动增强。此为海洋性大陆与中太平洋间的直接联系,可由皮叶克尼斯机制进行解释。而位于中太平洋与秘鲁地区的异常垂直环流亦可用这一机制进行解释。海洋性大陆与中太平洋的间接联系主要表现在由赤道外低纬和中纬度地区均存在的沿弧形路径上的垂直环流而建立的海洋性大陆与中太平洋地区的联系上。这些弧形垂直剖面上的垂直环流不仅与局地哈得来环流有关,还与热带和中纬度的罗斯贝波动有关。这些结果有利于深刻认识中部型ENSO对海洋性大陆区域气候的影响机理以及与热带外环流异常的联系。 相似文献
14.
Impacts on the coupled variability of the Indo-Pacific by including the effects of surface currents on surface stress are explored in four extended integrations of an experimental version of the Bureau of Meteorology??s coupled seasonal forecast model POAMA. The first pair of simulations differs only in their treatment of momentum coupling: one version includes the effects of surface currents on the surface stress computation and the other does not. The version that includes the effect of surface currents has less mean-state bias in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue but produces relatively weak coupled variability in the Tropics, especially that related to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The version without the effects of surface currents has greater bias in the Pacific cold tongue but stronger IOD and ENSO variability. In order to diagnose the role of changes in local coupling from changes in remote forcing by ENSO for causing changes in IOD variability, a second set of simulations is conducted where effects of surface currents are included only in the Indian Ocean and only in the Pacific Ocean. IOD variability is found to be equally reduced by inclusion of the local effects of surface currents in the Indian Ocean and by the reduction of ENSO variability as a result of including effects of surface currents in the Pacific. Some implications of these results for predictability of the IOD and its dependence on ENSO, and for ocean subsurface data assimilation are discussed. 相似文献
15.
The ENSO Events in the Tropical Pacific and Dipole Events in the Indian Ocean 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 A depth map (close to that of the thermocline as defined by 20℃) of climatically maximum seatemperature anomaly was created at the subsurface of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean, based on which the evolving sea-temperature anomaly at this depth map from 1960 to 2000 was statistically analyzed. It is noted that the evolving sea temperature anomaly at this depth map can be better analyzed than the evolving sea surface one. For example, during the ENSO event in the tropical Pacific, the seatemperature anomaly signals travel counter-clockwise within the range of 10°S-10°N, and while moving, the signals change in intensity or even type. If Dipole is used in the tropical Indian Ocean for analyzing the depth map of maximum sea-temperature anomaly, the sea-temperature anomalies of the eastern and western Indian Oceans would be negatively correlated in statistical sense (Dipole in real physical sense), which is unlike the sea surface temperature anomaly based analysis which demonstrates that the inter-annual positive and negative changes only occur on the gradients of the western and eastern temperature anomalies. Further analysis shows that the development of ENSO and Dipole has a time lag features statistically, with the sea-temperature anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific changing earlier (by three months or so). And the linkage between these two changes is a pair of coupled evolving Walker circulations that move reversely in the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans. 相似文献
16.
利用复经验正交函数(CEOF)分解对冬季热带印度洋海洋上层流场异常做了模态分析和结果讨论,得到以下主要结果:该流场异常前两个模态均呈现赤道俘获波形式,其异常在赤道上最大,向南北两侧迅速衰减,呈现纬向流的形态;第一、二模态的性质分别是大洋赤道波动的半波和1波形态,这表明此时赤道波动异常在大洋流场异常中占有重要地位。冬季第一模态大洋垂直运动所导致的近表层海温异常与春、秋季不同,此时在赤道印度洋呈现正—负—正的经向分布态势,这与印度洋耦极子(Indian Ocean Dipole,IOD)的不同,并是IOD在冬季衰亡的直接原因。第二模态相应的海温异常则在赤道东印度洋呈现北负南正的分布态势。第一模态与南亚冬季风异常密切有关,为印度洋冬季风环流模态。第一、二模态都有明显的年际变化和年代际变化,年际变化均为3~5年,主要的年代际变化则分别为约18、22年,此外两者还均有约13年的年代际变化。本文第一、二模态年代际变化的主周期也是冬季北太平洋和冬季热带太平洋流场异常第二、一模态的主周期。 相似文献
17.
The role of the Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) in the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) on ENSO is investigated using version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program(POP2) ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate the results through sensitivity experiments on both positive and negative IOD events from observations and coupled general circulation model simulations. By shutting down the atmospheric bridge while maintaining the tropical oceanic channel, the IOD forcing is shown to influence the ENSO event in the following year, and the role of the ITF is emphasized. During positive IOD events,negative sea surface height anomalies(SSHAs) occur in the eastern Indian Ocean, indicating the existence of upwelling.These upwelling anomalies pass through the Indonesian seas and enter the western tropical Pacific, resulting in cold anomalies there. These cold temperature anomalies further propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and ultimately induce a La Nia-like mode in the following year. In contrast, during negative IOD events, positive SSHAs are established in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to downwelling anomalies that can also propagate into the subsurface of the western Pacific Ocean and travel further eastward. These downwelling anomalies induce negative ITF transport anomalies, and an El Nio-like mode in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that persists into the following year. The effects of negative and positive IOD events on ENSO via the ITF are symmetric. Finally, we also estimate the contribution of IOD forcing in explaining the Pacific variability associated with ENSO via ITF. 相似文献
18.
Mark R. Jury 《大气与海洋》2013,51(5):322-331
ABSTRACTSouth Indian Ocean Rossby waves (SIO-RW) are identified in the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) 1.5–7?yr filtered sea surface height (SSH) time series. There is a persistent three-year oscillation in the 5°–15°S latitude band from 55° to 85°E. Field correlations show little coupling at 90°E, but as the SIO-RW undulates westward at approximately 0.19?m?s?1 across the mid-basin, a northwest–southeast axis of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and deep convection forms. Many teleconnections in earlier work are confirmed: interannual pulses of zonal wind in the eastern basin trigger the SIO-RW via anticyclonic wind stress curl. New insights derive from an understanding of links with the upper troposphere. As the SIO-RWs move westward with the onset of an El Niño in the Pacific, increased convection over the north Indian Ocean corresponds to reduced evaporation and SST warming. Mid-tropospheric heating T′?>?2°C over the northwest Indian Ocean accelerates the southern sub-tropical jet to greater than 10?m?s?1 over the southeast Indian Ocean, reinforcing the anticyclonic vorticity. The downstream acceleration of the jet generates upper-level divergence and moist convection over the western basin, anchoring an atmospheric Rossby wave in a northwest–southeast alignment underpinned by differential propagation of the SIO-RW. As the ocean Rossby wave reaches Africa, the coupling fades and transitions. What distinguishes Indian Ocean from Pacific Ocean Rossby waves are their southern latitude and higher frequency. The tropical mid-tropospheric heating that accelerates the southern sub-tropical jet shifts westward in tandem with the SIO-RW. 相似文献
19.
The teleconnections of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in future climate projections are investigated using results of the coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. For this, the IPCC SRES scenario A1B and a quadrupled CO2 simulation are considered. It is found that changes of the mean state in the tropical Pacific are likely to condition ENSO teleconnections in the Pacific North America (PNA) region and in the North Atlantic European (NAE) region. With increasing greenhouse gas emissions the changes of the mean states in the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific are El Niño-like in this particular model. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are increased predominantly in its eastern part and redistribute the precipitation further eastward. The dynamical response of the atmosphere is such that the equatorial east–west (Walker) circulation and the eastern Pacific inverse Hadley circulation are decreased. Over the subtropical East Pacific and North Atlantic the 200 hPa westerly wind is substantially increased. Composite maps of different climate parameters for positive and negative ENSO events are used to reveal changes of the ENSO teleconnections. Mean sea level pressure and upper tropospheric zonal winds indicate an eastward shift of the well-known teleconnection patterns in the PNA region and an increasing North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) like response over the NAE region. Surface temperature and precipitation underline this effect, particularly over the North Pacific and the central North Atlantic. Moreover, in the NAE region the 200 hPa westerly wind is increasingly related to the stationary wave activity. Here the stationary waves appear NAO-like. 相似文献