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1.
The variations in the density of the ionospheric F2 layer maximum (NmF2) under the action of the zonal plasma drift perpendicularly to the magnetic (B) and electric (E) fields in the direction geomagnetic west-geomagnetic east have been studied using the three-dimensional nonstationary theoretical model of electron and ion densities (N e and N i ) and temperatures (T e and T i ) in the low-latitude and midlatitude ionospheric F region and plasmasphere. The method of numerical calculations of N e , N i , T e , and T i , including the advantages of the Lagrangian and Eulerian methods, is used in the model. A dipole approximation of the geomagnetic field (B), taking into account the non-coincidence of the geographic and geomagnetic poles and differences between the positions of the Earth’s and geomagnetic dipole centers, is accepted in the calculations. The calculated NmF2 and altitudes of the F2 layer maximum (hmF2) have been compared with these quantities measured at 16 low-latitude ionospheric sounding stations during the geomagnetically quiet period October 11–12, 1958. This comparison made it possible to correct the input model parameters: the NRLMSISE-00 model [O], the meridional component of the neutral wind velocity according to the HWW90 model, and the meridional component of the equatorial plasma drift due to the electric field specified by the empirical model. It has been indicated that the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 can be neglected under daytime conditions and changes in NmF2 and hmF2 under the action of this drift are insignificant under nighttime conditions north of 25° and south of ?26° geomagnetic latitude. The effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 is most substantial in the nightside ionosphere approximately from ?20° to 20° geomagnetic latitude, and the neglect of this drift results in an up to 2.4-fold underestimation of NmF2. The found dependence of the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 on geomagnetic latitude is related to the longitudinal asymmetry of B, asymmetry of the neutral wind about the geomagnetic equator, and changes in the meridional E × B plasma drift at a change in geomagnetic longitude.  相似文献   

2.
The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M0?=?1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and fmax?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.  相似文献   

3.
The paper continues a cycle of petromagnetic investigations of epicontinental deposits at the Mesozoic-Cenozoic (K/T) boundary and is devoted to the study of the Gams section (Austria). Using thermomagnetic analysis, the following magnetic phases are identified: goethite (T C = 90–150°C), hemoilmenite (T C = 200?300°C), metallic nickel (T C = 350–360°C), magnetite and titanomagnetite (T C = 550–610°C), Fe-Ni alloy (T C = 640–660°C), and metallic iron (T C = 740–770°C). Their concentrations are determined from M(T). In all samples, ensembles of magnetic grains have similar coercivity spectra and are characterized by a high coercivity. An exception is the lower coercivity of the boundary clay layer due to grains of metallic nickel and iron. With rare exceptions, the studied sediments are anisotropic and generally possess a magnetic foliation, which indicates a terrigenous accumulation of magnetic minerals. Many samples of sandy-clayey rocks have an inverse magnetic fabric associated with the presence of acicular goethite. The values of paramagnetic and diamagnetic components in the deposits are calculated. According to the results obtained, the K/T boundary is marked by a sharp increase in the concentration of Fe hydroxides. The distribution of titanomagnetite reflects its dispersal during eruptive activity, which is better expressed in the Maastrichtian and at the base of the layer J. The along-section distribution of metallic iron, most likely of cosmic origin, is rather uniformly chaotic. The presence of nickel, most probably of impact origin, is a particularly local phenomenon as yet. The K/T boundary is not directly related to an impact event.  相似文献   

4.
To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M w  ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes (N) and time window (T w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here (N = 50 events and T w  = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.  相似文献   

5.
The damping modification factor (DMF) has been extensively used in earthquake engineering to describe the variation of structural responses due to varied damping ratios. It is known that DMFs are dependent not only on structural dynamic properties but also on characteristics of ground motions. DMFs regulated in current seismic codes are generally developed based on far-fault ground motions and are inappropriately used in structural design where pulse-like near-fault ground motions are involved. In this paper, statistical investigation of the DMF is performed based on 50 carefully selected pulse-like near-fault ground motions. It is observed that DMFs for pulse-like ground motions exhibit significant dependence on the pulse period T p in a specific period range. If the period of the structure in response is close to the pulse period, the DMF attains the same level as that derived from far-fault ground motions; as the period of the structure is considerably larger or smaller than the pulse period T p , the response reduction effect by the increased damping ratio is generally small, except for large earthquakes with long pulse periods, which exhibit significant reduction of response for structures with periods smaller than T p . Based on the statistical results of DMFs, the empirical formulas for estimating DMFs for displacement, velocity and acceleration spectra are proposed, the effect of structural period, pulse period and damping ratio are considered in the formulas, and the formulas are designed to satisfy the specific reliability requirement in the period range of 0.1 < T/T p  < 1, which is of engineering interest.  相似文献   

6.
We study the frictional and viscous effects on earthquake nucleation, especially for the nucleation phase, based on a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model with friction and viscosity. The frictional and viscous effects are specified by the characteristic displacement, U c, and viscosity coefficient, η, respectively. Simulation results show that friction and viscosity can both lengthen the natural period of the system and viscosity increases the duration time of motion of the slider. Higher viscosity causes a smaller amplitude of lower velocity motion than lower viscosity. A change of either U c (under large η) or η (under large U c) from a large value (U ch for U c and η h for η) to a small one (U cl for U c and η l for η) in two stages during sliding can result in a clear nucleation phase prior to the P-wave. The differences δU c = U ch ? U cl and δη = η h ? η l are two important factors in producing a nucleation phase. The difference between the nucleation phase and the P-wave increases with either δU c or δη. Like seismic observations, the peak amplitude of P-wave, which is associated with the earthquake magnitude, is independent upon the duration time of nucleation phase. A mechanism specified with a change of either η or U c from a larger value to a smaller one due to temporal variations in pore fluid pressure and temperature in the fault zone based on radiation efficiency is proposed to explain the simulation results and observations.  相似文献   

7.
Analysis of the frequency dependence of the attenuation coefficient leads to significant changes in interpretation of seismic attenuation data. Here, several published surface-wave attenuation studies are revisited from a uniform viewpoint of the temporal attenuation coefficient, denoted by χ. Theoretically, χ( f) is expected to be linear in frequency, with a generally non-zero intercept γ?=?χ(0) related to the variations of geometrical spreading, and slope dχ/df = π/Q e caused by the effective attenuation of the medium. This phenomenological model allows a simple classification of χ( f) dependences as combinations of linear segments within several frequency bands. Such linear patterns are indeed observed for Rayleigh waves at 500–100-s and 100–10-s periods, and also for Lg from ~2 s to ~1.5 Hz. The Lg χ( f) branch overlaps with similar linear branches of body, Pn, and coda waves, which were described earlier and extend to ~100 Hz. For surface waves shorter than ~100 s, γ values recorded in areas of stable and active tectonics are separated by the levels of \(\gamma _{D} \approx 0.2 \times 10^{-3}\) s???1 (for Rayleigh waves) and 8 ×10???3 s???1 (for Lg). The recently recognized discrepancy between the values of Q measured from long-period surface waves and normal-mode oscillations could also be explained by a slight positive bias in the geometrical spreading of surface waves. Similarly to the apparent χ, the corresponding linear variation with frequency is inferred for the intrinsic attenuation coefficient, χ i , which combines the effects of geometrical spreading and dissipation within the medium. Frequency-dependent rheological or scattering Q is not required for explaining any of the attenuation observations considered in this study. The often-interpreted increase of Q with frequency may be apparent and caused by using the Q-based model of attenuation and following preferred Q( f) dependences while ignoring the true χ( f) trends within the individual frequency bands.  相似文献   

8.
The long-term and continuous carbon fluxes of Changbaishan temperate mixed forest (CBS), Qianyanzhou subtropical evergreen coniferous forest (QYZ), Dinghushan subtropical evergreen mixed forest (DHS) and Xishuangbana tropical rainforest (XSBN) have been measured with eddy covariance techniques. In 2003, different responses of carbon exchange to the environment appeared across the four ecosystems. At CBS, the carbon exchange was mainly determined by radiation and temperature. 0°C and 10°C were two important temperature thresholds; the former determined the length of the growing season and the latter affected the magnitude of carbon exchange. The maximum net ecosystem exchange (N EE) of CBS occurred in early summer because maximum ecosystem photosynthesis (G PP) occurred earlier than maximum ecosystem respiration (R e). During summer, QYZ experienced severe drought and N EE decreased significantly mainly as a result of the depression of G PP. At DHS and XSBN, N EE was higher in the drought season than the wet season, especially the conversion between carbon sink and source occurring during the transition season at XSBN. During the wet season, increased fog and humid weather resulted from the plentiful rainfall, the ecosystem G PP was dispressed. The Q 10 and annual respiration of XSBN were the highest among the four ecosystems, while the average daily respiration of CBS during the growing season was the highest. Annual N EE of CBS, QYZ, DHS and XSBN were 181.5, 360.9, 536.2 and ?320.0 g·C·m?2·a?1, respectively. From CBS to DHS, the temperature and precipitation increased with the decrease in latitude. The ratio of N EE/R e increased with latitude, while R e/G PP, ecosystem light use efficiency (L UE), precipitation use efficiency and average daily G PP decreased gradually. However, XSBN usually escaped such latitude trend probably because of the influence of the south-west monsoon climate which does not affect the other ecosystems. Long-term measurement and more research were necessary to understand the adaptation of forest ecosystems to climate change and to evaluate the ecosystem carbon balance due to the complexity of structure and function of forest ecosystems.  相似文献   

9.
Attenuation of P and S waves has been investigated in Alborz and north central part of Iran using the data recorded by two permanent and one temporary networks during October 20, 2009, to December 22, 2010. The dataset consists of 14,000 waveforms from 380 local earthquakes (2 < M L < 5.6). The extended coda normalization method (CNM) was used to estimate quality factor of P (Q P) and S waves (Q S) at seven frequency bands (0.375, 0.75, 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 24 Hz). The Q P and Q S values have been estimated at lapse times from 40 to 100 s. It has been observed that the estimated values of Q P and Q S are time independent; therefore, the mean values of Q P and Q S at different lapse times have been considered. The frequency dependence of quality factor was determined by using a power-law relationship. The frequency-dependent relationship for Q P was estimated in the form of (62 ± 7)f (1.03 ± 0.07) and (48 ± 5)f (0.95 ± 0.07) in Alborz region and North Central Iran, respectively. These relations for Q S for Alborz region and North Central Iran have estimated as (83 ± 8)f (0.99 ± 0.07) and (68 ± 5)f (0.96 ± 0.05), respectively. The observed low Q values could be the results of thermoelastic effects and/or existing fracture. The estimated frequency-dependent relationships are comparable with tectonically active regions.  相似文献   

10.
Attenuation characteristics in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) are estimated from 157 local seismograph recordings out of 46 earthquakes of 2.6?≤?M?≤?4.1 with hypocentral distances up to 60 km and focal depths down to 25 km. Digital waveform seismograms were obtained from local earthquakes in the NMSZ recorded by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at the University of Memphis. Using the coda normalization method, we tried to determine Q values and geometrical spreading exponents at 13 center frequencies. The scatter of the data and trade-off between the geometrical spreading and the quality factor did not allow us to simultaneously derive both these parameters from inversion. Assuming 1/R 1.0 as the geometrical spreading function in the NMSZ, the Q P and Q S estimates increase with increasing frequency from 354 and 426 at 4 Hz to 729 and 1091 at 24 Hz, respectively. Fitting a power law equation to the Q estimates, we found the attenuation models for the P waves and S waves in the frequency range of 4 to 24 Hz as Q P?=?(115.80?±?1.36) f (0.495?±?0.129) and Q S?=?(161.34?±?1.73) f (0.613?±?0.067), respectively. We did not consider Q estimates from the coda normalization method for frequencies less than 4 Hz in the regression analysis since the decay of coda amplitude was not observed at most bandpass filtered seismograms for these frequencies. Q S/Q P?>?1, for 4?≤?f?≤?24 Hz as well as strong intrinsic attenuation, suggest that the crust beneath the NMSZ is partially fluid-saturated. Further, high scattering attenuation indicates the presence of a high level of small-scale heterogeneities inside the crust in this region.  相似文献   

11.
Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.  相似文献   

12.
One of the crucial components in seismic hazard analysis is the estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude and associated uncertainty. In the present study, the uncertainty related to the maximum expected magnitude μ is determined in terms of confidence intervals for an imposed level of confidence. Previous work by Salamat et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 174:763-777, 2017) shows the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible magnitude mmax for high levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones of Iran. In this work, the maximum expected earthquake magnitude μ is calculated in a predefined finite time interval and imposed level of confidence. For this, we use a conceptual model based on a doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitudes with constant b-value and calculate the posterior distribution of μ for the time interval Tf in future. We assume a stationary Poisson process in time and a Gutenberg-Richter relation for magnitudes. The upper bound of the magnitude confidence interval is calculated for different time intervals of 30, 50, and 100 years and imposed levels of confidence α?=?0.5, 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01. The posterior distribution of waiting times Tf to the next earthquake with a given magnitude equal to 6.5, 7.0, and 7.5 are calculated in each zone. In order to find the influence of declustering, we use the original and declustered version of the catalog. The earthquake catalog of the territory of Iran and surroundings are subdivided into six seismotectonic zones Alborz, Azerbaijan, Central Iran, Zagros, Kopet Dagh, and Makran. We assume the maximum possible magnitude mmax?=?8.5 and calculate the upper bound of the confidence interval of μ in each zone. The results indicate that for short time intervals equal to 30 and 50 years and imposed levels of confidence 1???α?=?0.95 and 0.90, the probability distribution of μ is around μ?=?7.16???8.23 in all seismic zones.  相似文献   

13.
The Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution (GIII) of the extreme value method is employed to evaluate the earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau. This research quantifies spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-year mode beside their 90 % probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Iranian Plateau. Therefore, we used a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2013 with magnitude M w ? ≥?4.0, and the Iranian Plateau is separated into equal area mesh of 1° late?×?1° long. The estimated result of annual mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M w 6.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, most parts of Central and East Iran, Kopeh Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan, and SE Zagros. The 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to overpass the value of M w 7.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, Central and East Iran, Alborz, Kopeh Dagh, and Azerbaijan. The spatial distribution of 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE uncovers the high values of earthquake hazard parameters which are frequently connected with the main tectonic regimes of the studied area. It appears that there is a close communication among the seismicity and the tectonics of the region.  相似文献   

14.
The homologues temperature of a crystalline material is defined as T/T_m, where T is temperature and T_m is the melting(solidus) temperature in Kelvin. It has been widely used to compare the creep strength of crystalline materials. The melting temperature of olivine system,(Mg,Fe)_2SiO_4, decreases with increasing iron content and water content, and increases with confining pressure. At high pressure, phase transition will lead to a sharp change in the melting curve of olivine. After calibrating previous melting experiments on fayalite(Fe_2SiO_4), the triple point of fayalite-Fe_2SiO_4 spinel-liquid is determined to be at 6.4 GPa and 1793 K. Using the generalized means, the solidus and liquidus of dry olivine are described as a function of iron content and pressure up to 6.4 GPa. The change of T/T_m of olivine with depth allows us to compare the strength of the upper mantle with different thermal states and olivine composition. The transition from semi-brittle to ductile deformation in the upper mantle occurs at a depth where T/T_m of olivine equals 0.5. The lithospheric mantle beneath cratons shows much smaller T/T_m of olivine than orogens and extensional basins until the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary where T/T_m 0.66, suggesting a stronger lithosphere beneath cratons. In addition, T/T_m is used to analyze deformation experiments on olivine. The results indicate that the effect of water on fabric transitions in olivine is closely related with pressure. The hydrogen-weakening effect and its relationship with T/T_m of olivine need further investigation. Below 6.4 GPa(200 km), T/T_m of olivine controls the transition of dislocation glide from [100] slip to [001] slip. Under the strain rate of 10~(-12)–10~(-15) s~(-1) and low stress in the upper mantle, the [100](010) slip system(A-type fabric) becomes dominant when T/T_m 0.55–0.60. When T/T_m 0.55–0.60, [001] slip is easier and low T/T_m favors the operation of [001](100) slip system(C-type fabric). This is consistent with the widely observed A-type olivine fabric in naturally deformed peridotites, and the C-type olivine fabric in peridotites that experienced deep subduction in ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic terranes. However, the B-type fabric will develop under high stress and relatively low T/T_m. Therefore, the homologues temperature of olivine established a bridge to extrapolate deformation experiments to rheology of the upper mantle. Seismic anisotropy of the upper mantle beneath cratons should be simulated using a four-layer model with the relic A-type fabric in the upper lithospheric mantle, the B-type fabric in the middle layer, the newly formed A- or B-type fabric near the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, and the asthenosphere dominated by diffusion creep below the Lehmann discontinuity. Knowledge about transition mechanisms of olivine fabrics is critical for tracing the water distribution and mantle flow from seismic anisotropy.  相似文献   

15.
Based on a pseudo-static approach, finite difference (FDM) numerical analyses have been performed aimed at evaluating the seismic effects on the ultimate bearing capacity of shallow strip foundations. In the specialised literature, such seismic effects are usually divided in two components, namely, a structure inertia and a soil inertia, which can be either considered together, or separately addressed and then superposed. Both of these inertia effects are investigated in this work. The results of a comprehensive numerical study are presented in—and critically compared to—the wide framework of available analytical solutions proposed in the literature in the last 30 years. The good agreement found between the numerical and the analytical approaches is pointed out, thus providing further evidence of the reliability of some available and widespread solutions. The possibility of superposition of the two inertia effects is investigated. It is found that in some cases the soil inertia may play a significant role in the seismic capacity of the system, and that simple one-constant equations can be readily used in foundation design to estimate the reduction in bearing capacity (namely, factors e i , e k ) deriving from the two inertia effects.  相似文献   

16.
The regularities in the southward drift of the ionospheric current centers and luminosity boundaries during strong magnetic storms of November 2003 and 2004 (with Dst ≈ ?400 and ?470 nT, respectively) are studied based on the global geomagnetic observations and TV measurements of auroras. It has been indicated that the eastward and westward electrojets in the dayside and nightside sectors simultaneously shift equatorward to minimal latitudes of Φ min ° ～53°–55°. It has been obtained that the Φ min ° latitude decreases with increasing negative values of Dst, IMF B z component, and westward electric field strength in the solar wind. The dependence of the electrojet equatorward shift velocity (V av) on the rate of IMF B z variations (ΔB z /Δt) has been determined. It is assumed that the electrojet dynamics along the meridian is caused by a change in the structure of the magnetosphere and electric fields in the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetosphere.  相似文献   

17.
A total of 120 samples from 12 sites were collected from two flanks of a fold. Stepwise thermal demagnetization has successfully revealed characteristic magnetization components from the rocks in each case. A well-defined component determined from red fine-grained sandstone is clustered in the northeasterly direction with shallow upward inclination (D = 29.3°,I= -19.2°,k = 283.7, α95 = 7.3°. tilt-corrected). The pole position (39.5°N, 247.3°E,dp = 4.0°,dm = 7.6°) derived from this component is close to the Permian pole for the Yangtze Block, indicating that the red fine-grained sandstone has been overprinted. The red mudstone reveals two characteristic components Component A with lower unblocking temperature, characterized by northerly declination and moderate to steep inclination corresponds to a pole position overlay with the present North Pole. Component B (D = 129.1°,I=-23.6°,k = 44.6, α95 = 7.8°, tilt-corrected) with higher unblocking temperature, passes fold test, and yields a pole position (39.5°S, 185.l°E,dp = 4.4°,dm = 8.3°) different from the other poles for the Yangtze Block. It is therefore suggested that component B was probably a primary magnetization and the Yangtze Block was situated at low latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere in the Middle Cambrian.  相似文献   

18.
The forecasting of evaporative loss (E) is vital for water resource management and understanding of hydrological process for farming practices, ecosystem management and hydrologic engineering. This study has developed three machine learning algorithms, namely the relevance vector machine (RVM), extreme learning machine (ELM) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) for the prediction of E using five predictor variables, incident solar radiation (S), maximum temperature (T max), minimum temperature (T min), atmospheric vapor pressure (VP) and precipitation (P). The RVM model is based on the Bayesian formulation of a linear model with appropriate prior that results in sparse representations. The ELM model is computationally efficient algorithm based on Single Layer Feedforward Neural Network with hidden neurons that randomly choose input weights and the MARS model is built on flexible regression algorithm that generally divides solution space into intervals of predictor variables and fits splines (basis functions) to each interval. By utilizing random sampling process, the predictor data were partitioned into the training phase (70 % of data) and testing phase (remainder 30 %). The equations for the prediction of monthly E were formulated. The RVM model was devised using the radial basis function, while the ELM model comprised of 5 inputs and 10 hidden neurons and used the radial basis activation function, and the MARS model utilized 15 basis functions. The decomposition of variance among the predictor dataset of the MARS model yielded the largest magnitude of the Generalized Cross Validation statistic (≈0.03) when the T max was used as an input, followed by the relatively lower value (≈0.028, 0.019) for inputs defined by the S and VP. This confirmed that the prediction of E utilized the largest contributions of the predictive features from the T max, verified emphatically by sensitivity analysis test. The model performance statistics yielded correlation coefficients of 0.979 (RVM), 0.977 (ELM) and 0.974 (MARS), Root-Mean-Square-Errors of 9.306, 9.714 and 10.457 and Mean-Absolute-Error of 0.034, 0.035 and 0.038. Despite the small differences in the overall prediction skill, the RVM model appeared to be more accurate in prediction of E. It is therefore advocated that the RVM model can be employed as a promising machine learning tool for the prediction of evaporative loss.  相似文献   

19.
We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ c and P d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.  相似文献   

20.
We have analyzed the behavior of the F2 layer parameters during nighttime periods of enhanced electron concentration by the results of vertical sounding of the ionosphere carried out with five-minute periodicity in Almaty (76°55′ E, 43°15′ N) in 2001–2012. The results are obtained within the frameworks of the unified concept of different types of ionospheric plasma disturbances manifested as variations in the height and half-thickness of the layer accompanied by an increase and decrease of N m F2 at the moments of maximum compression and expansion of the layer. A good correlation is found between height h Am , which corresponds to the maximum increase, and layer peak height h m F, while h Am is always less than h m F. The difference between h Am and h m F linearly increases with increasing h m F. Whereas the difference is ~38 km for h m F = 280 km, it is ~54 km for h m F = 380 km. Additionally, the correlation is good between the increase in the electron concentration in the layer maximum ΔN m and the maximum enhancement at the fixed height ΔN; the electron concentration enhancement in the layer maximum is about two to three times lower than its maximum enhancement at the fixed height.  相似文献   

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