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1.
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2.
Peacebuilding countries are concentrated in areas of heightened vulnerability to climate change impacts, and almost certainly lack the capacity to manage these impacts. In spite of this overlap, climate change adaptation and mitigation projects are typically excluded from peacebuilding activities. This is particularly alarming given that many analysts believe climate change will trigger, amplify or perpetuate humanitarian crises, population displacement, political extremism and violent conflict in the regions in which most peacebuilding operations take place. This paper investigates opportunities for integrating climate change into peacebuilding. It identifies three obstacles to this integration—the lack of climate change tools and policies that can be easily introduced into typical peacebuilding programming; the skepticism and complacency of the donor community; and tensions between the objectives and timeframes of peacebuilding and those of climate change response. The paper then examines opportunities to integrate climate change into four principal programmatic areas of peacebuilding—socio-economic recovery, politics and governance, security and rule of law, and human rights—and concludes that more attention needs to be given to these opportunities in order to build resilience and reduce the likelihood of more daunting and costly challenges in the future.  相似文献   

3.
The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impacts, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However, the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impacts, adaptation and vulnerability and, increasingly, integrated assessment modeling studies are conducted. The objective of this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor–Actor–Sector framework. In addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative sub-national socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.  相似文献   

4.
Research on vulnerability and adaptation in social-ecological systems (SES) has largely centered on climate change and associated biophysical stressors. Key implications of this are twofold. First, there has been limited engagement with the impacts of social drivers of change on communities and linked SES. Second, the focus on climate effects often assumes slower drivers of change and fails to differentiate the implications of change occurring at different timescales. This has resulted in a body of SES scholarship that is under-theorized in terms of how communities experience and respond to fast versus slow change. Yet, social and economic processes at global scales increasingly emerge as ‘shocks’ for local systems, driving rapid and often surprising forms of change distinct from and yet interacting with the impacts of slow, ongoing ‘trends’. This research seeks to understand the nature and impacts of social shocks as opposed to or in concert with trends through the lens of a qualitative case study of a coastal community in Mexico, where demand from international seafood markets has spurred rapid development of a sea cucumber fishery. Specifically, we examined what different social-ecological changes are being experienced by the community, how the impacts of the sea cucumber fishery are distinct from and interacting with slower ongoing trends and how these processes are affecting system vulnerability, adaptations and adaptive capacity. We begin by proposing a novel framework for conceptualizing impacts on social systems, as comprised of structures, functions, and feedbacks. Our results illustrate how the rapid-onset of this fishery has driven dramatic changes in the community. New challenges such as the ‘gold-rush-style’ arrival of new actors, money, and livelihoods, the rapid over-exploitation of fish stocks, and increases in poaching and armed violence have emerged, exacerbating pressures from ongoing trends in immigration, overfishing and tourism development. We argue that there is a need to better understand and differentiate the social and ecological implications of shocks, which present novel challenges for the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities and the sustainability of marine ecosystems.  相似文献   

5.
Time and space matter: How urban transitions create inequality   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
An increase in transportation costs impacts the welfare of households living on the outskirts of the city more than the other inhabitants and, in the short term, limited housing supply stops them from moving toward the center. Over a longer period, however, urban adjustments cancel out this inequality: (1) in the center, rent level rises because of higher demand, inducing investment in additional housing and increasing city density; (2) on the outskirts, housing demand decreases until rent level decreases and compensates for higher transportation expenditures. Inertia in housing supply and household re-locations leads, therefore, to the development of spatial inequalities.To investigate this issue, we built a dynamic model that reproduces urban transitions in monocentric cities, and enables quantifying in continuous time their spatialized consequences. Applied to the implementation of a transportation tax, the model suggests that a rapid implementation would induce (i) higher welfare losses than can be inferred from traditional models and (ii) major redistributive effects throughout the city. Finally, the model suggests that an early and progressive implementation is to be preferred to late and aggressive action.These results challenge current assessment methods of climate change stabilization strategies and show that it is essential to take into account urban dynamics and inequalities in the design of climate policy.  相似文献   

6.
气候变化是21世纪人类面临的重大挑战之一,并对自然系统和社会经济系统造成了各种负面影响。对气候变化的影响进行经济评估是气候变化研究中的重要问题。而可计算一般均衡框架下的综合评估模型（CGE_IAMs）是评估气候变化经济影响的有效手段之一,文中对气候变化影响经济评估的主要CGE_IAMs进行了文献调研,并对这些模型进行了比较分析。研究表明不同模型在温室气体排放、气候参数的处理方式以及气候影响的引入机制等方面有着较大区别,因而各模型对气候变化影响的经济评估结果也有一定的差异。此外,当前CGE_IAMs在评估气候变化经济影响时存在支撑数据未及时更新、方法不细致以及评估不全面等问题。未来该领域的相关研究应该更加关注于模型与支撑数据的精细化和开源化,此外还应加强CGE_IAMs中经济模块与复杂气候模式的耦合。  相似文献   

7.
Conditional forecasts of US economic and energy sector activity are developed using information from a dynamic, data-rich environment. The forecasts are conditional on a path for carbon dioxide emissions outlined in the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) and are estimated based on a factor-augmented autoregressive framework. Results suggest that overall growth will be slower under the CPP than it would otherwise; however, economic growth and CO2 reductions can be achieved simultaneously. There are little differences between unconditional (business-as-usual) and conditional forecasts of the variables in the early part of the forecast period; the impacts of the CPP are small while the constraints on carbon dioxide are less stringent. The results serve as a data-driven complement to structural analyses of policy change in the energy sector.  相似文献   

8.
Cooperation in the economic sense considers efficiency issues. Cooperation in the political sense, like the Kyoto Protocol, considers other issues like equity and historical responsibility. The environmental and economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and other scenarios are thus examined. The US pullout may then be viewed, among others, as the result of not untying “economic” and “political” cooperation; and since the Protocol will be much less effective without the US, it is shown that an external economic stimulus should and may theoretically be found for retaining their participation.  相似文献   

9.
As the severity and frequency of extreme weather events become more pronounced with climate change and the increased habitation of at-risk areas, it is important to understand people’s resilience to them. We quantify resilience by estimating how disasters in the US impacted individual wellbeing in the initial weeks and months post-disaster, and whether the effect sizes differed by individual- and county-level factors. The methodological approach contrasts changes in wellbeing in counties affected by disasters with that of residents in unaffected counties of the same state. We find that people’s hedonic wellbeing is reduced by approximately 6% of a standard deviation in the first two weeks following the event, with the effect diminishing rapidly thereafter. The negative effects are driven by White, older, and economically advantaged sub-populations, who exhibit less resilience. We find no evidence that existing indices of community resilience moderate impacts. Our conclusion is that most people in the US have a resilient response to extreme weather events.  相似文献   

10.
Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire patterns and subsequent impacts to human communities. The relative influence of climate versus land use on fires and their impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given the substantial geographical variability in fire-prone places like California. We developed a modeling framework to compare the importance of climatic and human variables for explaining fire patterns and structure loss for three diverse California landscapes, then projected future large fire and structure loss probability under two different climate (hot-dry or warm-wet) and two different land use (rural or urban residential growth) scenarios. The relative importance of climate and housing pattern varied across regions and according to fire size or whether the model was for large fires or structure loss. The differing strengths of these relationships, in addition to differences in the nature and magnitude of projected climate or land use change, dictated the extent to which large fires or structure loss were projected to change in the future. Despite this variability, housing and human infrastructure were consistently more responsible for explaining fire ignitions and structure loss probability, whereas climate, topography, and fuel variables were more important for explaining large fire patterns. For all study areas, most structure loss occurred in areas with low housing density (from 0.08 to 2.01 units/ha), and expansion of rural residential land use increased structure loss probability in the future. Regardless of future climate scenario, large fire probability was only projected to increase in the northern and interior parts of the state, whereas climate change had no projected impact on fire probability in southern California. Given the variation in fire-climate relationships and land use effects, policy and management decision-making should be customized for specific geographical regions.  相似文献   

11.
Justice dilemmas associated with climate change and the regulatory responses to it pose challenges for global governance, arguably hampering progress and raising concerns over efficacy and relevance. Scholarly literature suggests that transnational civil society groups can help address problems of governance and injustice that cross borders and pit states against each other. Findings of a comparative, qualitative study of climate justice advocacy suggest, however, that civil society groups' work in the US and EU is significantly shaped by institutional factors specific to those regimes, limiting advocates' broader impact. Moreover, political opportunities for the pursuit of climate action, and justice particularly, have diminished in those settings. By contrast, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides greater opportunities for discussions of justice, although civil society actors are significantly constrained within it. It is argued that greater roles for civil society in the UNFCCC could prove constructive in the face of current challenges connected with justice issues. Three themes in civil society advocacy linking principles of global justice with current climate policy debates are summarized. Finally, it is suggested that the first iteration of the UNFCCC Periodic Review provides timely opportunities to more fully draw upon civil society's potential contributions toward a fair and effective global climate regime.

Policy relevance

The roles of civil society organizations in climate governance were examined in three policy contexts: the UNFCCC, the US, and the EU, with special attention to advocacy addressing issues of equity and justice, identified as key challenges for a post-2012 global agreement. Findings suggest that (1) civil society roles are significantly constrained in each context, and (2) political opportunities for climate advocacy have diminished since 2009 in the US and EU, underlining (3) the continued salience of the UNFCCC as a forum for engagement and the construction of effective and equitable climate policy. Potential exists for increased civil society involvement at the UNFCCC to help resolve obstacles based in divergent national priorities. Three areas of justice-focused civil society activity are reviewed for current negotiation topics and the governance structure of the institution. The current UNFCCC Periodic Review is identified as an opportunity to increase civil society involvement.  相似文献   

12.
This paper investigates the impacts of climate change on US returns to research investments on agricultural productivity. We examine this using a historical data set in a panel time-series econometric model of state agricultural productivity. The fitted model allows derivation of the rate of return to research investments and the effects of climate change thereon. We find climate change is altering the rate of return to public agricultural research in a spatially heterogeneous manner. Increases in precipitation raise returns to research, while the impact of higher temperatures varies by region, are negative in Southern areas, particularly the Southern Plains, and positive in northern areas. We simulate the impact of projected climate change and find cases where agricultural productivity is reduced, for example in the Southern Plains. Finally, we consider the amount of research investment that is needed to adapt to overcome the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity. Under the 2100 scenario, a 7–17 % increase in total US research investment is needed to adapt, but effects by region differ greatly—some requiring little changes and the Southern Plain requiring an increase as high as 57 %.  相似文献   

13.
Vulnerability   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  
This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration.  相似文献   

14.
In light of the challenges posed by contemporary environmental changes, interest in past environmental impacts and societies’ responses to them is burgeoning. The main strength of such research lies in its ability to analyze completed society-environment interactions. Scholars have argued that such analyses can improve our understanding of present challenges and offer useful lessons to guide adaptation responses. Yet despite considerable differences between past and present societies, our inherently limited knowledge of the past and our changing understanding of it, much of this research uses historical antecedents uncritically, assuming that past societal impacts and responses are directly analogous to contemporary ones. We argue that this approach is unsound both methodologically and theoretically, thus drawing insights that might offer an erroneous course of action.To illustrate the challenges in drawing historical analogies, we outline several fundamental differences between past and present societies as well as broader limitations of historical research. Based on these points, we argue that scholars who apply historical inference in their work should do so critically, while reflecting on the objectives of learning from the past and the limitations of this process. We suggest a number of ways to improve past-present analogies, such as defining more explicitly what we can learn from the past, clarifying the rationale for using the analogy, and reducing the number of variables compared between past and present.  相似文献   

15.
Discerning the general public’s support of climate change policies is a significant part of understanding the political and social dynamics of mitigating climate change. National level surveys are a useful tool for furthering this understanding but present multiple challenges, two of which are addressed in this paper. The first challenge is that the U.S. public’s limited knowledge of climate change issues requires that information is provided in the survey, and that the content of this information is thought to be critical in eliciting accurate responses. Second, the use of national surveys may mask regional and state differences that result from the distribution of predicted climate change impacts and varying social contexts. We explore these issues by assessing the impacts of (a) the provision of information on climate change impacts at different scales (national and regional) and (b) the respondent’s state of residence (Michigan or Virginia) on climate change policy support. We found a modest relationship between state of residence and policy support, with Michigan residents less likely to support climate change mitigation policies than residents of Virginia. The provision of information on the regional versus national level of predicted impacts of climate change did not influence climate change policy support.  相似文献   

16.
Aiguo Dai 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):633-646
Precipitation over the contiguous United States exhibits large multi-decadal oscillations since the early twentieth century, and they often lead to dry (e.g., 1946–1976 and 1999-present) and wet (e.g., 1977–1998) periods and apparent precipitation trends (e.g., from the 1950s to 1990s) over most of the western and central US. The exact cause of these inter-decadal variations is not fully understood. Using observational and reanalysis data and model simulations, this paper examines the influence of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on US precipitation. The IPO is a leading mode of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) seen mostly in the Pacific Ocean. It is found that decadal precipitation variations over much of the West and Central US, especially the Southwest, closely follow the evolution of the IPO (r = 0.85 during 1923–2010 for the Southwest US), and the dry and wet periods are associated, respectively, with the cold and warm phases of the IPO. In particular, the apparent upward trend from the 1950s–1990s and the dry decade thereafter in precipitation over much of the West and Central US are largely caused by the IPO cycles, which switched to a warm phase around 1977 and back to a cold phase around 1999. An atmospheric model forced with observed SSTs reproduces much of this association of US precipitation with the IPO (r = 0.95 between smoothed observed and simulated Southwest US precipitation during 1950–2009 and r = 0.88 between the simulated Southwest US precipitation and the IPO). Atmospheric reanalysis and model data both show a strong high (low) pressure center and anti-cyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly circulation over the North Pacific in the lower troposphere during cold (warm) phases of the IPO, which lead to dry and cold northwesterly and northerly winds and below-normal precipitation over much of the West US during IPO cold periods. The IPO induced changes are most pronounced during the boreal cold season. The results reinforce the notion that tropical Pacific SSTs (and the accompanying SST anomalies in the North Pacific) have large impacts on US precipitation and highlight the need to understand and simulate the IPO for decadal prediction of US precipitation.  相似文献   

17.
A Ricardian analysis of US and Canadian farmland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
In this analysis, we undertake a comparative Ricardian analysis of agriculture between Canada and the United States. We find that the climate responses of the two countries are similar but statistically different despite the fact that the two countries are neighbors. Comparing the marginal impacts of climate change, we find that Canadian agriculture is unaffected by warmer temperatures but would benefit from more precipitation. US farms are much more sensitive to higher temperatures and benefit relatively less from increased precipitation. These marginal results were anticipated given that Canadian farms are generally cooler and drier than American farms.  相似文献   

18.
During the twentieth century sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean exhibited prominent multidecadal variations. The source of such variations has yet to be rigorously established—but the question of their impact on climate can be investigated. Here we report on a set of multimodel experiments to examine the impact of patterns of warming in the North Atlantic, and cooling in the South Atlantic, derived from observations, that is characteristic of the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The experiments were carried out with six atmospheric General Circulation Models (including two versions of one model), and a major goal was to assess the extent to which key climate impacts are consistent between the different models. The major climate impacts are found over North and South America, with the strongest impacts over land found over the United States and northern parts of South America. These responses appear to be driven by a combination of an off-equatorial Gill response to diabatic heating over the Caribbean due to increased rainfall within the region and a Northward shift in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) due to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient. The majority of the models show warmer US land temperatures and reduced Mean Sea Level Pressure during summer (JJA) in response to a warmer North Atlantic and a cooler South Atlantic, in line with observations. However the majority of models show no significant impact on US rainfall during summer. Over northern South America, all models show reduced rainfall in southern hemisphere winter (JJA), whilst in Summer (DJF) there is a generally an increase in rainfall. However, there is a large spread amongst the models in the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies over land. Away from the Americas, there are no consistent significant modelled responses. In particular there are no significant changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the North Atlantic and Europe in Winter (DJF). Additionally, the observed Sahel drying signal in African rainfall is not seen in the modelled responses. Suggesting that, in contrast to some studies, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was not the primary driver of recent reductions in Sahel rainfall.  相似文献   

19.
Residuals from agricultural pesticides threaten the environment and human health. Climate change alters these externalities because it affects pest pressure and pesticide application rates. This study examines damages from pesticide externalities in US agriculture under different climate projections and the effects of alternative regulations. We find divergent impacts of externality regulation and climate change on agricultural production in the US. A Pigovian tax on pesticide externalities generally increases crop production cost, but farm revenue improves because of increased commodity prices. Climate change generally decreases US farm revenue because production increases and prices fall. Results also show a heterogeneous effect of climate change on pest management intensities across major crops.  相似文献   

20.
Anthropogenic climate change is affecting the environment of all oceans, modifying ocean circulation, temperature, chemistry and productivity. While evidence for changes in physical signals is often distinct, impacts on fishes inhabiting oceanic systems are not easily identified, and therefore, quantification of responses is less common. Correctly attributing changes associated with a changing climate from other drivers is important for the implementation of effective harvest and management strategies and for addressing associated socio-economic impacts, particularly for countries highly dependent on oceanic resources. Data supporting investigation of responses of oceanic species to climate impacts include fisheries catch, fisheries-independent surveys, and conventional and electronic tagging data. However, there are a number of challenges associated with detecting climatic responses with these data, including (i) data collection costs (ii) small sample sizes (iii) limited time series relative to temporal scales at which environmental variability occurs, (iv) changing fisher and fisheries behavior due to non-climate drivers and (v) changes in population dynamics due to natural climate variability and non-climate drivers. We highlight potential biases and suggest strategies that should be considered when using oceanic fish and fisheries data in the evaluation of climate change impacts. Consideration of these factors is important when assessing variability in exploited species and designing management responses to climate or fisheries threats.  相似文献   

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