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1.
Projected 21st-century changes to Arctic marine access 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Scott R. Stephenson Laurence C. Smith Lawson W. Brigham John A. Agnew 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):885-899
Climate models project continued Arctic sea ice reductions with nearly ice-free summer conditions by the mid-21st century. However, how such reductions will realistically enable marine access is not well understood, especially considering a range of climatic scenarios and ship types. We present 21st century projections of technical shipping accessibility for circumpolar and national scales, the international high seas, and three potential navigation routes. Projections of marine access are based on monthly and daily CCSM4 sea ice concentration and thickness simulations for 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099 under 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m2 radiative forcing scenarios. Results suggest substantial areas of the Arctic will become newly accessible to Polar Class 3, Polar Class 6, and open-water vessels, rising from ~54 %, 36 %, and 23 %, respectively of the circumpolar International Maritime Organization Guidelines Boundary area in the late 20th century to ~95 %, 78 %, and 49 %, respectively by the late 21st century. Of the five Arctic Ocean coastal states, Russia experiences the greatest percentage access increases to its exclusive economic zone, followed by Greenland/Denmark, Norway, Canada and the U.S. Along the Northern Sea Route, July-October navigation season length averages ~120, 113, and 103 days for PC3, PC6, and OW vessels, respectively by late-century, with shorter seasons but substantial increases along the Northwest Passage and Trans-Polar Route. While Arctic navigation depends on other factors besides sea ice including economics, infrastructure, bathymetry, and weather, these projections are useful for strategic planning by governments, regulatory agencies, and the global maritime industry to assess spatial and temporal ranges of potential Arctic marine operations in the coming decades. 相似文献
2.
Low-level temperature inversions are a common feature of the wintertime troposphere in the Arctic and Antarctic. Inversion strength plays an important role in regulating atmospheric processes including air pollution, ozone destruction, cloud formation, and negative longwave feedback mechanisms that shape polar climate response to anthropogenic forcing. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument provides reliable measures of spatial patterns in mean wintertime inversion strength when compared with available radiosonde observations and reanalysis products. Here, we examine the influence of sea ice concentration on inversion strength in the Arctic and Antarctic. Correlation of inversion strength with mean annual sea ice concentration, likely a surrogate for the effective thermal conductivity of the wintertime ice pack, yields strong, linear relationships in the Arctic (r?=?0.88) and Antarctic (r?=?0.86). We find a substantially greater (stronger) linear relationship between sea ice concentration and surface air temperature than with temperature at 850?hPa, lending credence to the idea that sea ice controls inversion strength through modulation of surface heat fluxes. As such, declines in sea ice in either hemisphere may imply weaker mean inversions in the future. Comparison of mean inversion strength in AIRS and global climate models (GCMs) suggests that many GCMs poorly characterize mean inversion strength at high latitudes. 相似文献
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5.
Changes in Arctic clouds during intervals of rapid sea ice loss 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
We investigate the behavior of clouds during rapid sea ice loss events (RILEs) in the Arctic, as simulated by multiple ensemble projections of the 21st century in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Trends in cloud properties and sea ice coverage during RILEs are compared with their secular trends between 2000 and 2049 during summer, autumn, and winter. The results suggest that clouds promote abrupt Arctic climate change during RILEs through increased (decreased) cloudiness in autumn (summer) relative to the changes over the first half of the 21st century. The trends in cloud characteristics (cloud amount, water content, and radiative forcing) during RILEs are most strongly and consistently an amplifying effect during autumn, the season in which RILEs account for the majority of the secular trends. The total cloud trends in every season are primarily due to low clouds, which show a more robust response than middle and high clouds across RILEs. Lead-lag correlations of monthly sea ice concentration and cloud cover during autumn reveal that the relationship between less ice and more clouds is enhanced during RILEs, but there is no evidence that either variable is leading the other. Given that Arctic cloud projections in CCSM3 are similar to those from other state-of-the-art GCMs and that observations show increased autumn cloudiness associated with the extreme 2007 and 2008 sea ice minima, this study suggests that the rapidly declining Arctic sea ice will be accentuated by changes in polar clouds. 相似文献
6.
Ford Victoria L. Frauenfeld Oliver W. Nowotarski Christopher J. Bombardi Rodrigo J. 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(11):3541-3552
As Arctic sea ice declines in response to climate change, a shift from thick multiyear ice to a thinner ice cover is occurring. With this transition, ice thicknesses approach a threshold below which ice no longer insulates the atmosphere from oceanic surface fluxes. While this is well known, there are no estimates of the magnitude of this threshold, nor of the proportion of sea ice area that is below this threshold as ice thins. We determine this threshold by simulating the atmospheric response to varying thicknesses, ranging from 0.0 to 2.0 m and determine that threshold to be 0.40–0.50 m. The resulting “effective” ice area is 4–14% lower than reported total ice area, as 0.39–0.97 × 106 km2 of the total ice area falls below the threshold throughout the twentieth century, including during notable ice minima. The atmosphere above large non-insulating ice-covered regions is susceptible to more than 2 °C of warming despite ice presence. Observed mean Arctic Ocean ice thickness is projected to fall below this threshold as early as the mid-2020s. Studies on ocean–atmosphere interactions in relation to sea ice area should focus on this insulating sea ice area, where ice is at least 0.40–0.50 m thick, and treat ice regions below 0.40–0.50 m thickness with caution.
相似文献7.
Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Larissa Pizzolato Stephen E. L. Howell Chris Derksen Jackie Dawson Luke Copland 《Climatic change》2014,123(2):161-173
Declining sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic has gained significant attention with respect to the prospect of increased shipping activities. To investigate relationships between recent declines in sea ice area with Arctic maritime activity, trend and correlation analysis was performed on sea ice area data for total, first-year ice (FYI), and multi-year ice (MYI), and on a comprehensive shipping dataset of observed vessel transits through the Vessel Traffic Reporting Arctic Canada Traffic Zone (NORDREG zone) from 1990 to 2012. Links to surface air temperature (SAT) and the satellite derived melt season length were also investigated. Between 1990 and 2012, statistically significant increases in vessel traffic were observed within the NORDREG zone on monthly and annual time-scales coincident with declines in sea ice area (FYI, MYI, and total ice) during the shipping season and on a monthly basis. Similarly, the NORDREG zone is experiencing increased shoulder season shipping activity, alongside an increasing melt season length and warming surface air temperatures (SAT). Despite these trends, only weak correlations between the variables were identified, although a step increase in shipping activity is apparent following the former summer sea ice extent minimum in 2007. Other non-environmental factors have also likely contributed to the observed increase in Arctic shipping activity within the Canadian Arctic, such as tourism demand, community re-supply needs, and resource exploration trends. 相似文献
8.
The Arctic Amplification Debate 总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16
Rises in surface air temperature (SAT) in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to be amplified in northern high latitudes, with warming most pronounced over the Arctic Ocean owing to the loss of sea ice. Observations document recent warming, but an enhanced Arctic Ocean signal is not readily evident. This disparity, combined with varying model projections of SAT change, and large variability in observed SAT over the 20th century, may lead one to question the concept of Arctic amplification. Disparity is greatly reduced, however, if one compares observed trajectories to near-future simulations (2010–2029), rather than to the doubled-CO2 or late 21st century conditions that are typically cited. These near-future simulations document a preconditioning phase of Arctic amplification, characterized by the initial retreat and thinning of sea ice, with imprints of low-frequency variability. Observations show these same basic features, but with SATs over the Arctic Ocean still largely constrained by the insulating effects of the ice cover and thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Given the general consistency with model projections, we are likely near the threshold when absorption of solar radiation during summer limits ice growth the following autumn and winter, initiating a feedback leading to a substantial increase in Arctic Ocean SATs. 相似文献
9.
ABSTRACTPresent global climate models (GCMs) are unable to provide reliable projections of physical oceanographic properties on the continental shelf off Newfoundland and Labrador. Here we first establish linear statistical relationships between oceanographic properties and coastal air temperature based on historical observations. We then use these relationships to project future states of oceanographic conditions under different emission scenarios, based on projected coastal air temperatures from global (Canadian Earth System Model, version 2 (CanESM2), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model, version 2M (GFDL-ESM2M)) and regional (Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM)) climate models. Estimates based on CanESM2 agree reasonably well with observed trends, but the trends based on two other models result in substantial underestimates. Projected trends are closer to observations under a high emission scenario than under median-level emission scenarios. Over the next 50 years, the increases in projected sea surface temperature off eastern Newfoundland (Station 27) range from 0.4° to 2.2°C. The increases in bottom ocean temperature over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves range from 0.4° to 2.1°C. The area of the cold intermediate layer (<0°C) on the Flemish Cap (47°N) section is projected to decrease by 9–35% of the 1981–2010 average. The decline in sea-ice extent off Newfoundland and Labrador ranges from 20 to 77% of the average (0.4–1.5?×?105?km2), and the reduction in the number of icebergs at 48°N off Newfoundland ranges from 30% to nearly 100% of the norm at this latitude. Despite differences among the models and scenarios, statistical projections indicate that conditions in this region will reach or exceed their maxima (sea surface temperature, bottom ocean temperature) and reach or fall below their minima (sea-ice extent, number of icebergs) that were observed during the course of monitoring activities over the past 30–60 years, possibly as early as 2040. We note, however, that the statistical relationships based on historical data may not hold in the future because of the changing influence of input from Arctic waters and because of large uncertainties in projected air temperatures from GCMs. 相似文献
10.
Jinfei WANG Hao LUO Qinghua YANG Jiping LIU Lejiang YU Qian SHI Bo HAN 《大气科学进展》2022,39(10):1591-1597
Seasonal minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) in 2022 hit a new record low since recordkeeping began in 1978 of 1.9 million km2 on 25 February, 0.17 million km2 lower than the previous record low set in 2017. Significant negative anomalies in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, the Weddell Sea, and the western Indian Ocean sector led to the new record minimum. The sea ice budget analysis presented here shows that thermodynamic processes dominate sea ice loss in summer through enhanced poleward heat transport and albedo–temperature feedback. In spring, both dynamic and thermodynamic processes contribute to negative sea ice anomalies. Specifically, dynamic ice loss dominates in the Amundsen Sea as evidenced by sea ice thickness (SIT) change, while positive surface heat fluxes contribute most to sea ice melt in the Weddell Sea. 相似文献
11.
Unprecedented low twentieth century winter sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas since A.D. 1200
M. Macias Fauria A. Grinsted S. Helama J. Moore M. Timonen T. Martma E. Isaksson M. Eronen 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(6):781-795
We reconstructed decadal to centennial variability of maximum sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas for A.D. 1200–1997
using a combination of a regional tree-ring chronology from the timberline area in Fennoscandia and δ18O from the Lomonosovfonna ice core in Svalbard. The reconstruction successfully explained 59% of the variance in sea ice extent
based on the calibration period 1864–1997. The significance of the reconstruction statistics (reduction of error, coefficient
of efficiency) is computed for the first time against a realistic noise background. The twentieth century sustained the lowest
sea ice extent values since A.D. 1200: low sea ice extent also occurred before (mid-seventeenth and mid-eighteenth centuries,
early fifteenth and late thirteenth centuries), but these periods were in no case as persistent as in the twentieth century.
Largest sea ice extent values occurred from the seventeenth to the nineteenth centuries, during the Little Ice Age (LIA),
with relatively smaller sea ice-covered area during the sixteenth century. Moderate sea ice extent occurred during thirteenth–fifteenth
centuries. Reconstructed sea ice extent variability is dominated by decadal oscillations, frequently associated with decadal
components of the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO), and multi-decadal lower frequency oscillations operating
at ~50–120 year. Sea ice extent and NAO showed a non-stationary relationship during the observational period. The present
low sea ice extent is unique over the last 800 years, and results from a decline started in late-nineteenth century after
the LIA. 相似文献
12.
It is demonstrated that during the whole annual cycle of ice cover evolution in 2006–2007 in the eastern seas of the Russian
Arctic and in the Arctic basin, the factors whose effect led to the formation of an extremely large anomaly of ice conditions
in summer 2007 were revealed. By the end of summer, the ice melted on the huge water area of 3500000 km2. In September, the ice edge between the meridians of 150° E-170° W reached the parallel of 85° N. The estimates of the open
water area being formed due to the ice melting and its drifting edge shift are given. 相似文献
13.
The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are fundamental features of the Arctic climate system. The representation of the pan-Arctic melt and freeze onset (north of 60°N) is assessed in two reanalyses and eleven CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs). The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are retrieved from surface air temperature (SAT) across the land and sea-ice domains and evaluated against surface observations. While monthly averages of SAT are reasonably well represented in models, large model-observation and model–model disparities of timing of melt and freeze onset are evident. The evaluation against surface observations reveals that the ERA-Interim reanalysis performs the best, closely followed by some of the climate models. GCMs and reanalyses capture the seasonal melt-freeze transitions better in the central Arctic than in the marginal seas and across the land areas. The GCMs project that during the 21st century, the summer length—the period between melt and freeze onset—will increase over land by about 1 month at all latitudes, and over sea ice by 1 and 3 months at low and high latitudes, respectively. This larger summer-length increase over sea ice at progressively higher latitudes is related to a retreat of summer sea ice during the 21st century, since open water freezes roughly 40 days later than ice-covered ocean. As a consequence, by the year 2100, the freeze onset is projected to be initiated within roughly 10 days across the whole Arctic Ocean, whereas this transition varies by about 80 days today. 相似文献
14.
Perspectives of Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage in the twenty-first century 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The ability of modern climate models to simulate ice season length in the Arctic, its recent changes and navigation season on Arctic marine routes along the Eurasian and the North American coastlines is evaluated using satellite ice cover observations for 1979–2007. Simulated mean sea ice season duration fits remarkably well to satellite observations and so do the simulated 20th century changes using historical forcing. This provides confidence to extend the analysis to projections for the twenty-first century. The navigation season for the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP), alternative sea routes from the North Atlantic to Asia, will considerably increase during this century. The models predict prolongation of the season with a free passage from 3 to 6 months for the NSR and from 2 to 4 months for the NWP by the end of twenty-first century according to A1B scenario of the IPCC. This suggests that transit through the NSR from Western Europe to the Far East may be up to 15% more profitable in comparison to Suez Canal transit by the end of the twenty-first century. 相似文献
15.
Song Feng Chang-Hoi Ho Qi Hu Robert J. Oglesby Su-Jong Jeong Baek-Min Kim 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(7-8):1359-1373
The ecosystems in the Arctic region are known to be very sensitive to climate changes. The accelerated warming for the past several decades has profoundly influenced the lives of the native populations and ecosystems in the Arctic. Given that the K?ppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classification is based on reliable variations of land-surface types (especially vegetation), this study used the K-T scheme to evaluate climate changes and their impact on vegetation for the Arctic (north of 50°N) by analyzing observations as well as model simulations for the period 1900–2099. The models include 16 fully coupled global climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment. By the end of this century, the annual-mean surface temperature averaged over Arctic land regions is projected to increase by 3.1, 4.6 and 5.3°C under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) B1, A1b, and A2 emission scenarios, respectively. Increasing temperature favors a northward expansion of temperate climate (i.e., Dc and Do in the K-T classification) and boreal oceanic climate (i.e., Eo) types into areas previously covered by boreal continental climate (i.e., Ec) and tundra; and tundra into areas occupied by permanent ice. The tundra region is projected to shrink by ?1.86?×?106?km2 (?33.0%) in B1, ?2.4?×?106?km2 (?42.6%) in A1b, and ?2.5?×?106?km2 (?44.2%) in A2 scenarios by the end of this century. The Ec climate type retreats at least 5° poleward of its present location, resulting in ?18.9, ?30.2, and ?37.1% declines in areal coverage under the B1, A1b and A2 scenarios, respectively. The temperate climate types (Dc and Do) advance and take over the area previously covered by Ec. The area covered by Dc climate expands by 4.61?×?106?km2 (84.6%) in B1, 6.88?×?106?km2 (126.4%) in A1b, and 8.16?×?106?km2 (149.6%) in A2 scenarios. The projected redistributions of K-T climate types also differ regionally. In northern Europe and Alaska, the warming may cause more rapid expansion of temperate climate types. Overall, the climate types in 25, 39.1, and 45% of the entire Arctic region are projected to change by the end of this century under the B1, A1b, and A2 scenarios, respectively. Because the K-T climate classification was constructed on the basis of vegetation types, and each K-T climate type is closely associated with certain prevalent vegetation species, the projected large shift in climate types suggests extensive broad-scale redistribution of prevalent ecoregions in the Arctic. 相似文献
16.
全球变暖的背景下,北极航线的常规通航甚至商业运营有望实现,而海雾会严重影响航道上船只的航行安全。海冰的存在使海气之间相互作用变得更为复杂,是研究北极海雾不可忽略的因素。船载观测发现,与中纬度常见平流冷却雾形成时气温下降速度往往超过海水降温速度不同,北极海雾发生时海冰的存在还会使海水降温速度超过空气降温速度。然而目前海冰分布是否会影响模式模拟海雾的准确性还不得而知,因此本文利用Polar WRF（Polar Weather Research and Forecasting）模式模拟了中国第七次北极考察中观测到的一次海雾过程,并进行海冰密集度敏感性试验。通过与船载观测和欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析数据比对发现,在低浮冰区内（海冰密集度小于50%）考虑海冰分布时可以更加准确地刻画潜热通量与水汽通量,模拟出与观测事实相符的表层空气降温与增湿过程以及相对湿度的变化,因此能够更好地刻画海雾的三维结构及其生消演变。 相似文献
17.
《大气和海洋科学快报》2023,16(3):100352
The Arctic sea-ice cover has decreased in extent, area, and thickness over the last six decades. Most global climate models project that the summer sea-ice extent (SIE) will decline to less than 1 million (mill.) km2 in this century, ranging from 2030 to the end of the century, indicating large uncertainty. However, some models, using the same emission scenarios as required by the Paris Agreement to keep the global temperature below 2°C, indicate that the SIE could be about 2 mill. km2 in 2100 but with a large uncertainty of ±1.5 mill. km2. Here, the authors take another approach by exploring the direct relationship between the SIE and atmospheric CO2 concentration for the summer–fall months. The authors correlate the SIE and ln(CO2/CO2r) during the period 1979–2022, where CO2r is the reference value in 1979. Using these transient regression equations with an R2 between 0.78 and 0.87, the authors calculate the value that the CO2 concentration needs to reach for zero SIE. The results are that, for July, the CO2 concentration needs to reach 691 ± 16.5 ppm, for August 604 ± 16.5 ppm, for September 563 ± 17.5 ppm, and for October 620 ± 21 ppm. These values of CO2 for an ice-free Arctic are much higher than the targets of the Paris Agreement, which are 450 ppm in 2060 and 425 ppm in 2100, under the IPCC SSP1-2.6 scenario. If these targets can be reached or even almost reached, the “no tipping point” hypothesis for the summer SIE may be valid. 相似文献
18.
Simulations of late 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount from 20 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) dataset are synthesized and assessed. Under recent climatic conditions, GCMs realistically simulate the spatial distribution of Arctic clouds, the magnitude of cloudiness during the warmest seasons (summer–autumn), and the prevalence of low clouds as the predominant type. The greatest intermodel spread and most pronounced model error of excessive cloudiness coincides with the coldest seasons (winter–spring) and locations (perennial ice pack, Greenland, and the Canadian Archipelago). Under greenhouse forcing (SRES A1B emissions scenario) the Arctic is expected to become cloudier, especially during autumn and over sea ice, in tandem with cloud decreases in middle latitudes. Projected cloud changes for the late 21st century depend strongly on the simulated modern (late 20th century) annual cycle of Arctic cloud amount: GCMs that correctly simulate more clouds during summer than winter at present also tend to simulate more clouds in the future. The simulated Arctic cloud changes display a tripole structure aloft, with largest increases concentrated at low levels (below 700 hPa) and high levels (above 400 hPa) but little change in the middle troposphere. The changes in cloud radiative forcing suggest that the cloud changes are a positive feedback annually but negative during summer. Of potential explanations for the simulated Arctic cloud response, local evaporation is the leading candidate based on its high correlation with the cloud changes. The polar cloud changes are also significantly correlated with model resolution: GCMs with higher spatial resolution tend to produce larger future cloud increases. 相似文献
19.
The effect of snow on Antarctic sea ice simulations in a coupled atmosphere-sea ice model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The effect of a snow cover on sea ice accretion and ablation is estimated based on the ‘zero-layer’ version sea ice model
of Semtner, and is examined using a coupled atmosphere-sea ice model including feedbacks and ice dynamics effects. When snow
is disregarded in the coupled model the averaged Antarctic sea ice becomes thicker. When only half of the snowfall predicted
by the atmospheric model is allowed to land on the ice surface sea ice gets thicker in most of the Weddell and Ross Seas but
thinner in East Antarctic in winter, with the average slightly thicker. When twice as much snowfall as predicted by the atmospheric
model is assumed to land on the ice surface sea ice also gets much thicker due to the large increase of snow-ice formation.
These results indicate the importance of the correct simulation of the snow cover over sea ice and snow-ice formation in the
Antarctic. Our results also illustrate the complex feedback effects of the snow cover in global climate models. In this study
we have also tested the use of a mean value of 0.16 Wm-1 K-1 instead of 0.31 for the thermal conductivity of snow in the coupled model, based on the most recent observations in the eastern
Antarctic and Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas, and have found that the sea ice distribution changes greatly, with the ice
becoming much thinner by about 0.2 m in the Antarctic and about 0.4 m in the Arctic on average. This implies that the magnitude
of the thermal conductivity of snow is of considerable importance for the simulation of the sea ice distribution. An appropriate
value of the thermal conductivity of snow is as crucial as the depth of the snow layer and the snowfall rate in a sea ice
model. The coupled climate models require accurate values of the effective thermal conductivity of snow from observations
for validating the simulated sea ice distribution under the present climate conditions.
Received: 20 November 1997/Accepted: 27 July 1998 相似文献
20.
A reliable data set of Arctic sea ice concentration based on satellite observations exists since 1972. Over this time period of 36 years western arctic temperatures have increased; the temperature rise varies significantly from one season to another and over multi-year time scales. In contrast to most of Alaska, however, on the North Slope the warming continued after 1976, when a circulation change occurred, as expressed in the PDO index. The mean temperature increase for Barrow over the 36-year period was 2.9°C, a very substantial change. Wind speeds increased by 18% over this time period, however, the increase were non-linear and showed a peak in the early 1990s. The sea ice extent of the Arctic Ocean has decreased strongly in recent years, and in September 2007 a new record in the amount of open water was recorded in the Western Arctic. We observed for the Southern Beaufort Sea a fairly steady increase in the mean annual amount of open water from 14% in 1972 to 39% in 2007, as deduced from the best linear fit. In late summer the decrease is much larger, and September has, on average, the least ice concentration (22%), followed by August (35%) and October (54%). The correlation coefficient between mean annual values of temperature and sea ice concentration was 0.84. On a monthly basis, the best correlation coefficient was found in October with 0.88. However, the relationship between winter temperatures and the sea ice break-up in summer was weak. While the temperature correlated well with the CO2 concentration (r?=?0.86), the correlation coefficient between CO2 and sea ice was lower (r?=??0.68). After comparing the ice concentration with 17 circulation indices, the best relation was found with the Pacific Circulation Index (r?=??0.59). 相似文献