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1.
该文考虑生命活动与物质交换和能量流动的关系,从热力学出发,引入一维能量模型。在一维能量模型的基础上,将水稻对外界能量的摄取能力与水稻生长季中的气温变化规律联系起来,建立在气温变化条件下水稻的生长模型。结合气温增长率、水稻最适气温和不同阶段的生物量,以徐士良单形调优算法为基础,利用Forcal二维方程参数拟合,得到关于水稻自然增长率、气温波幅和初始值等参数的最优拟合。将最优拟合数据代入水稻的生长模型,拟合得到水稻的生长曲线和水稻生长随气温的变化趋势。以水稻的生长模型为基础,定性分析水稻的临界气温和最大生长率出现时间。通过分析发现,水稻生长季的临界气温与气温增长率无关;水稻的最大生长率出现时间为水稻分蘖后期、孕穗期。为考虑异常气温对水稻生长的影响,利用Matlab对水稻分蘖期低温和生殖生长期高温的水稻生长进行模拟,结果表明:水稻后期高温对产量影响比前期受低温影响严重。 相似文献
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A terrestrial biogeochemical model (CASACNP) was coupled to a land surface model (the Common Land Model,CoLM) to simulate the dynamics of carbon substrate in soil and its limitation on soil respiration.The combined model,CoLM CASACNP,was able to predict long-term carbon sources and sinks that CoLM alone could not.The coupled model was tested using measurements of belowground respiration and surface fluxes from two forest ecosystems.The combined model simulated reasonably well the diurnal and seasonal variations of net ecosystem carbon exchange,as well as seasonal variation in the soil respiration rate of both the forest sites chosen for this study.However,the agreement between model simulations and actual measurements was poorer under dry conditions.The model should be tested against more measurements before being applied globally to investigate the feedbacks between the carbon cycle and climate change. 相似文献
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一个包含土壤和植被的区域气候模式及其性能检验 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
本文研制了一个三维地气耦合的区域气候模式，该模式由大气、土壤和植被三个子模式组成，各子模式间通过动量、能量和水份交换过程进行相互作用。在大气子模式中提出用z-z*混合坐标系处理地形的新方法，并把诊断分析中的散度修订方案引入数值模式，使其在物理依据上更加合理。此外，模式中较为详细地考虑了影响区域气候形成和变化的物理过程。简单的数值试验表明，区域气候模式比较真实地模拟了土壤和植被冠层的温度日变化，对区域气候平均态也有一定的模拟能力，可较好地处理大地形，具有良好的稳定性能，并对下垫面热力非均匀性的响应也是敏感的。 相似文献
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Yaqi WANG Zipeng YU Pengfei LIN Hailong LIU Jiangbo JIN Lijuan LI Yanli TANG Li DONG Kangjun CHEN Yiwen LI Qian YANG Mengrong DING Yao MENG Bowen ZHAO Jilin WEI Jinfeng MA Zhikuo SUN 《大气科学进展》2020,37(10):1093-1101
The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project(FAFMIP) is an endorsed Model Intercomparison Project in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6). The goal of FAFMIP is to investigate the spread in the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model projections of ocean climate change forced by increased CO_2, including the uncertainties in the simulations of ocean heat uptake, global mean sea level rise due to ocean thermal expansion and dynamic sea level change due to ocean circulation and density changes. The FAFMIP experiments have already been conducted with the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model, gridpoint version 3.0(FGOALS-g3). The model datasets have been submitted to the Earth System Grid Federation(ESGF) node. Here, the details of the experiments,the output variables and some baseline results are presented. Compared with the preliminary results of other models, the evolutions of global mean variables can be reproduced well by FGOALS-g3. The simulations of spatial patterns are also consistent with those of other models in most regions except the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean, indicating large uncertainties in the regional sea level projections of these two regions. 相似文献
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伴随技术是四维变分同化（4DVar）系统中计算代价函数梯度的最佳办法,切线性和伴随模式的效果和效率直接影响着4DVar系统的发展。基于GRAPES（Global and Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System）全球切线性和伴随模式1.0版本,利用GRAPES全球模式2.0版本在并行框架和性能等方面的改善,重新优化和设计了GRAPES全球切线性伴随模式2.0版本,提高了GRAPES全球切线性和伴随模式的效果和效率,优化了切线性模式程序结构,使其计算时间最优可控制在非线性模式的1.2倍以内;采用在切线性模式中保存基态的方法,重构了伴随模式的程序结构,使其计算时间最优控制在非线性模式的1.5倍以内;在GRAPES全球切线性物理过程的设计中,将线性物理过程的轨迹基态计算和切线性扰动计算解耦,提高了GRAPES全球切线性和伴随模式的计算效果和效率。 相似文献
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Pengfei LIN Zhipeng YU Hailong LIU Yongqiang YU Yiwen LI Jirong JIANG Wei XUE Kangjun CHEN Qian YANG Bowen ZHAO Jilin WEI Mengrong DING Zhikuo SUN Yaqi WANG Yao MENG Weipeng ZHENG Jinfeng MA 《大气科学进展》2020,37(3):239-249
The datasets of two Ocean Model Intercomparison Project(OMIP)simulation experiments from the LASG/IAP Climate Ocean Model,version 3(LICOM3),forced by two different sets of atmospheric surface data,are described in this paper.The experiment forced by CORE-II(Co-ordinated Ocean–Ice Reference Experiments,Phase II)data(1948–2009)is called OMIP1,and that forced by JRA55-do(surface dataset for driving ocean–sea-ice models based on Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis)data(1958–2018)is called OMIP2.First,the improvement of LICOM from CMIP5 to CMIP6 and the configurations of the two experiments are described.Second,the basic performances of the two experiments are validated using the climatological-mean and interannual time scales from observation.We find that the mean states,interannual variabilities,and long-term linear trends can be reproduced well by the two experiments.The differences between the two datasets are also discussed.Finally,the usage of these data is described.These datasets are helpful toward understanding the origin system bias of the fully coupled model. 相似文献
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建立了不均匀的地表径流算法,修改了RegCM2中径流方案,这一算法适用于疏松土壤和紧密土壤.设计了一个适合与气候模式RegCM2耦合、能模拟水文站流量的汇流模式.模拟了1998年夏季大暴雨期间6、7、8月降水的空间分布,分析了该径流方案对降水、地表热量通量、地表径流、土壤湿度产生的影响,结果表明：①本文提出的方案在模拟1998年长江流域夏季大暴雨期间降水的空间分布上有一定的合理性,在一定程度上改善了降水量的模拟,其影响大致是总降水量的10%左右.②地表径流方案改变了地面向大气输送的热量通量,这种作用随时间发生变化,这种变化与地表水分的再分配有关.③本方案计算的土壤渗透能力较强.在暴雨的初期,产生径流较少,而在暴雨后期土壤湿度增大,产生的地表径流较大,这一点更符合洪水形成的特点. 相似文献
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Coupling of a Regional Climate Model with a Crop Development Model and Evaluation of the Coupled Model across China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jing ZOU Zhenghui XIE Chesheng ZHAN Feng CHEN Peihua QIN Tong HU Jinbo XIE 《大气科学进展》2019,36(5):527-540
In this study, the CERES(Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis) crop model was coupled with CLM3.5, the land module of the regional climate model RegCM4. The new coupled model was named RegCM4_CERES; and in this model, crop type was further divided into winter wheat, spring wheat, spring maize, summer maize, early rice, late rice,single rice, and other crop types based on each distribution fraction. The development of each crop sub-type was simulated by the corresponding crop model separately, with each planting and harvesting date. A simulation test using RegCM4_CERES was conducted across China from 1999 to 2008; a control test was also performed using the original RegCM4. Data on crop LAI(leaf area index), soil moisture at 10 cm depth, precipitation, and 2 m air temperature were collected to evaluate the performance of RegCM4_CERES. The evaluation provided comparison of single-station time series, regional distributions,seasonal variations, and statistical indices for RegCM4_CERES. The results revealed that the coupled model had an excellent ability to simulate the phonological changes and spatial variations in crops. The consideration of dynamic crop development in RegCM4_CERES corrected the wet bias of the original RegCM4 over North China and the cold bias over South China.However, the degree of improvement was minimal and the statistical indices for RegCM4_CERES were roughly the same as the original RegCM4. 相似文献
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一个水文模型与区域气候模式耦合的数值模拟研究(英) 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
ZENG Xinmin ZHAO Ming SU Bingkai TANG Jianping ZHENG Yiqun GUI Qijun ZHOU Zugang 《大气科学进展》2003,20(2):227-236
在陆面过程方案中考虑精细的水文模型有助于改善对区域水文及气候的模拟。建立了一个考虑降水及入渗空间非均匀性的水文模型,并将其并入陆面过程方案BATS中。通过区域气候模式耦合模拟试验,得到如下主要结论:陆面水文的模拟对降水及入渗空间非均匀性的考虑非常敏感:考虑入渗非均匀性后,提高了径流系数,这与湿润地区水分平衡的观测结果更一致;入渗非均匀参数化方案的引入对区域水文及气候模拟的影响比降水非均匀参数化方案的引入要大:不透水面积在区域中的考虑所揭示的特征与我国北方干旱化趋势是一致的。 相似文献
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将中尺度数值天气预报模式与BP神经网络模型相结合用于风电功率预测,以WRF模式回算了2008年6月至2009年6月试验风电场的气象要素,精度检验结果显示风速预报值与对应实测值之间的相关系数达到0.72,风向、气温、湿度、气压的预报也比较准确,满足建立BP神经网络预报模型的需要.逐一建立试验风电场40台风电机组输出功率的BP神经网络预报模型,分析了数据标准化方法、隐含层神经元数对预报精度的影响.进行了26天实效为24 h的逐10 min预报试验,并以独立样本进行预报精度检验,结果显示单台风电机组输出功率相对均方根误差在24.8％～32.6％之间,预报值与实测值之间的相关系数现在0.45～0.68之间;风电场整体相对均方根误差为19.5％,预报值与实测值之间的相关系数为0.74.研究结果表明该方法可以用于实际的风电功率预测. 相似文献
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Bruno Bueno Leslie Norford Grégoire Pigeon Rex Britter 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2011,140(3):471-489
A scheme that couples a detailed building energy model, EnergyPlus, and an urban canopy model, the Town Energy Balance (TEB), is presented. Both models are well accepted and evaluated within their individual scientific communities. The coupled scheme proposes a more realistic representation of buildings and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, which allows a broader analysis of the two-way interactions between the energy performance of buildings and the urban climate around the buildings. The scheme can be used to evaluate the building energy models that are being developed within the urban climate community. In this study, the coupled scheme is evaluated using measurements conducted over the dense urban centre of Toulouse, France. The comparison includes electricity and natural gas energy consumption of buildings, building façade temperatures, and urban canyon air temperatures. The coupled scheme is then used to analyze the effect of different building and HVAC system configurations on building energy consumption, waste heat released from HVAC systems, and outdoor air temperatures for the case study of Toulouse. Three different energy efficiency strategies are analyzed: shading devices, economizers, and heat recovery. 相似文献
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阿勒泰地区夏季降水概念模型及预测模型 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在相关普查及分析各因子物理意义的基础上,建立阿勒泰地区夏季降水概念模型及预测模型,结果表明：夏季500hPa高度场,若极涡偏南、偏强,欧洲到里成海、贝湖到蒙古为脊区,西西伯利亚到巴湖为槽区,西太副高西伸北挺明显,北非副高东伸以及伊朗副高北挺明显,有ElNino或LaNina现象出现,加上前期5月降水量偏多,则该地区夏季降水易偏多,反之易偏少。 相似文献
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模式评估是模式发展中不可或缺的重要一环。本文利用最新版陆面模式评估软件—ILAMB（International Land Model Benchmarking）对通用陆面模式 (The Common Land Model, CoLM)进行客观评估,并与NCAR陆面模式CLM5(Community Land Model version 5)结果进行比较。作为一个陆面模式评估软件,ILAMB能对参与评估的模式变量自动生成诊断图形并对模式性能进行评分。评估结果表明,CoLM总体性能良好,模拟结果与基准数据较为接近。与CLM5相比,CoLM在总初级生产力及水文方面的表现略微逊色,在辐射方面则表现相当,对部分变量如地表向上长波辐射、地表净辐射等的模拟甚至优于CLM5。通过对比CRUNCEPv7和GSWP3v1两种强迫资料发现,它们在气候平均态上具有一定的差异,模式在GSWP3v1强迫下的表现相对较好。CoLM和CLM5在CRUCNEPv7强迫下模拟的潜热通量在亚马逊平原、亚洲东部和南部地区以及北美东部一带正偏差显著,而在GSWP3v1强迫下的模拟则有明显改善。这两个模式对感热通量的模拟在非洲北部、亚洲中部一带均明显偏高。在辐射方面,CoLM模拟的地表向上短波辐射在全球以偏高为主,这在一定程度上造成了地表净辐射的模拟偏低。各组试验模拟的地表向上长波辐射得分相差不大,但在具体的空间分布上有一定的差别。 相似文献
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在陆面过程方案中考虑精细的水模型有助于改善对区域水及气候的模拟。建立了一个考虑降水及入诊空间非均匀性的水模型，并将其并入陆面过程方案BATS中。通过区域气候模式耦合模拟试验，得到如下主要结论：陆面水的模拟对降水及入渗空间非均匀性的考虑非常敏感；考虑入渗非均匀性后，提高了径流系数，这与湿润地区水分平衡的观测结果更一致；入渗非均匀参数化方案的引入对区域水及气候模拟的影响比降水非均匀参数化方案的引入要大；不透水面积在区域中的考虑所揭示的特征与我国北方干旱化趋势是一致的。 相似文献
17.
Yufei XIN Yongjiu DAI Jian LI Xinyao RONG Guo ZHANG 《Journal of Meteorological Research》2019,(2):251-263
The ECHAM5 model is coupled with the widely used Common Land Model(CoLM). ECHAM5 is a state-of-theart atmospheric general circulation model incorporated into the integrated weather and climate model of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM). Land surface schemes in ECHAM5 are simple and do not provide an adequate representation of the vegetation canopy and snow/frozen soil processes. Two AMIP(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type experiments using ECHAM5 and ECHAM5-CoLM are run over 30 yr and the results are compared with reanalysis and observational data. It is found that the pattern of land surface temperature simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM is significantly improved relative to ECHAM5. Specifically, the cold bias over Eurasia is removed and the root-mean-square error is reduced in most regions. The seasonal variation in the zonal mean land surface temperature and the in situ soil temperature at 20-and 80-cm depths are both better simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM. ECHAM5-CoLM produces a more reasonable spatial pattern in the soil moisture content, whereas ECHAM5 predicts much drier soils. The seasonal cycle of soil moisture content from ECHAM5-CoLM is a better match to the observational data in six specific regions. ECHAM5-CoLM reproduces the observed spatial patterns of both sensible and latent heat fluxes. The strong positive bias in precipitation over land is reduced in ECHAM5-CoLM, especially over the southern Tibetan Plateau and middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the summer monsoon rainy season. 相似文献
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基于模式先验信息的贝叶斯集合降水概率预报试验 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为了更好地利用降水预报历史先验概率分布函数信息修订集合概率预报效果,基于贝叶斯原理和贝叶斯降水概率预报模型,分别使用1952—2007年历史观测资料和2009—2011年6月24~120 h中国T213全球集合预报历史资料作为先验信息,对中国不同气候区代表站（广州、南京、武汉和成都）建立贝叶斯降水概率预报模型,对比不同先验信息下集合成员与集成贝叶斯降水概率预报拟合结果差异,分析先验信息对贝叶斯降水概率预报模型的影响,在此基础上,采用模式先验信息的贝叶斯降水概率预报模型,进行2008年6月降水概率预报试验。试验结果表明,由T213集合预报产生的先验信息较历史观测资料产生的先验信息更优,当先验信息的降水概率分布函数曲率最大处偏向降水大值区时,贝叶斯模型的降水预报结果也偏向降水大值区,反之亦然。结果还显示,先验信息对贝叶斯降水概率预报模型有重要影响,若先验信息偏向更多更大降水量时,贝叶斯降水概率预报对有降水的预报更优,若降水先验信息偏向更少更小降水量时,对无雨或微量降水预报效果越好。 相似文献
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A new multi-trajectory highly vectorizable Gear chemical-transport model is discussed and tested against measurements from 25 sites in Europe for a two-week summer period. The simulations are compared with measurement data and with results of a Quasi-Steady-State Approximation (QSSA) based Lagrangian model using the EMEP mechanism.The model is developed from the Lagrangian EMEP model. The Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM) is used as the models chemical mechanism. To solve the stiff chemical rate equations, a sparse-matrix highly vectorizable Gear algorithm is used. The meteorological data used to run the model are obtained from the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM).The vectorized Gear based model improves the accuracy of the numerical solution for the chemistry compared with the QSSA based model. The differences between the two models are explained by alternative approaches of the chemical modules employed in the model: a Gear algorithm versus a QSSA solver, photolysis rate parameters in RACM are calculated from a radiation transfer code versus parameterized photolysis rate parameters used in the Lagrangian EMEP model, the RACM versus the EMEP atmospheric chemical mechanisms and two methods of aggregating the emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC). Photolysis rate parameters calculated from radiation codes (which are more accurate than simple parameterizations) and the Gear algorithm (which is a benchmark solver compared with the QSSA solver) are recommended for atmospheric chemistry modeling because of the high sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the chemical reaction scheme and to the photolysis rates (Stockwell and Goliff, 2004). 相似文献
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以1990~1999年的42个探空站的3层高度资料为依据,采用文献[1]提出的“滑动展开模型”客观预报技术,建立了以高度场展开系数为因子的龙海县6月暴雨概念化客观预报模型,其历史回报率达56%。在2000~2005年的验证中,客观预报准确率比主观经验预报高10%,且漏报次数(2次)少于主观经验漏报次数(4次)。 相似文献