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1.
Previous study comes to the conclusion:based on the anomalies of the South Asian high (SAH),100-hPa geopotential height,and 100-hPa circulation over tropical and subtropical regions,we can predict precipita- tion anomaly in the Yangtze River Valley and North China.To test its validity,a series of experiments have been designed and operated,which include controlled experiment,sensitivity experiment (which has added anomalies into 100-hPa geopotential height and wind field),and four-composite experiments.Experiments based on the composed initial field such as EPR-CF,EPR-CD,EPR-HF,and EPR-HD,can reproduce the floods or droughts in the Yangtze River Valley and North China.It suggests that anomalies of the SAH,100- hPa geopotential height,and circulation over tropical and subtropical regions may probably imply summer precipitation anomalies in the two regions.Sensitivity experiment results show that anomalies of the SAH, 100-hPa geopotential height,and southwest flow in the previous period is a signal of droughts or floods for the following summer in the Yangtze River Valley and North China.And it is also one of the factors that have impact on summer precipitation anomaly in the two regions.Positive anomaly of 100-hPa geopotential height and the anomalous intensifying of the SAH and southwest flow will induce floods in the Yangtze River Valley and droughts in North China;while negative anomaly of 100-hPa geopotential height and anomalous weakening of the SAH and southwest flow will induce droughts in the Yangtze River Valley and floods in North China.  相似文献   

2.
Summary Southeastern Pacific blocking episodes are studied using 17 years of reanalyzed daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The anomalous sea level pressure (SLP) within the area bounded by the longitudes of 130° W and 100° W and the latitudes of 50° S and 70° S is used as the base variable to determine periods with 7 or more sequential days with positive anomalies in this domain. Using these periods, composites are calculated for the SLP and its anomalies, 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies and the 250-hPa and 925-hPa wind vectors in the western southern hemisphere (SH). Composites for austral winter and summer exhibit atmospheric circulation features quite similar to those associated with the blocking episodes in the southeastern Pacific. The corresponding composite patterns of the precipitable water (Pw) and 925-hPa temperature anomalies for the South American sector are also discussed. For both seasons blocking episodes in the southeastern Pacific change the distributions of these thermodynamic variables over South America, in particular in its southern and southeastern regions by reducing (increasing) the Pw and low-level temperature in the southern South America (the central part of the continent). Therefore, monitoring the southeastern Pacific circulation patterns may lead to improved weather forecast for the South American sector.With 9 Figures  相似文献   

3.
The study examined effects of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) off the east coast of Japan on the blocking high over the Okhotsk Sea in June by diagnostic analysis and numerical simulation. Firstly, based on 500-hPa geopotential height fields, the Okhotsk high index (OKHI) for June from 1951 to 2000 is calculated and analyzed. The result indicates that the OKHI has obvious inter-annual and inter-decadal variations, and there are 9 yr of high OKHI and 8 yr of low OKHI in 50 yr. Secondly, by using the OKHI, the relationship between the Okhotsk high and the 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly is investigated. The results indicate that the "+-+" pattern of geopotential height anomaly crossing Eurasia in the mid-high latitudes and the "+-" pattern of geopotential height anomaly from high to low latitudes over East Asia are in favor of the formation and maintenance of the Okhotsk high. The relationship between the OKHI and the SSTA over the North Pacific is investigated in early summer by using correlation and composite analysis. We found that when the blocking circulation over the Okhotsk Sea occurs, there is an obvious negative SSTA off the east coast of Japan in early summer. We simulated the effects of the negative SSTA of east coast of Japan on the atmospheric circulation anomaly over East Asia through the control and sensitivity experiments using NCAR CAM3 model in order to confirm our analysis results. The simulation shows that the negative SSTA off the east coast of Japan results in the significant positive 40 gpm 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly over the Okhotsk Sea and the negative anomalies off the east coast of Japan which might contribute to the formation and development of the Okhotsk high in June.  相似文献   

4.
冯琎  廖宏 《大气科学》2017,41(2):251-262
本文使用戈达德对地观测系统(Goddard Earth Observing System,GEOS)全球三维大气化学传输模式GEOS-Chem模拟了气象场驱动下1986~2006年冬春季东亚到太平洋区域气溶胶的流出通量,分析了流出通量的年际变率及其相关的环流异常。结果表明,偏多(少)的东亚气溶胶流出对应东北亚-西太平洋区域(Northeast Asia-western Pacific,NAWP)500 hPa定常波负值中心强度变强(弱)。NAWP区域500 hPa位势高度场负(正)异常还可能造成气溶胶流出路径的变化,即更多(少)的气溶胶相对于气候态偏北5~10个纬度的路径向太平洋区域传输。这种位势高度场上的异常伴随着对流层中低层西风和大气斜压性异常,从而引起东亚到太平洋区域气溶胶流出通量及其路径的年际变化。  相似文献   

5.
短期气候可预报期限的时空分布   总被引:7,自引:2,他引:5  
李建平  丁瑞强 《大气科学》2008,32(4):975-986
在非线性误差增长理论的基础上,研究了位势高度场与温度场月和季节时间尺度可预报期限的时空分布特征,结果表明:(1)在500 hPa位势高度场上,年平均月和季节尺度可预报期限的空间分布都存在明显的南北经向性差异,其中在热带地区月和季节尺度可预报期限都为最大,月尺度可预报期限都在6个月以上, 其中最高值超过了9个月,而季节尺度可预报期限基本上都在8个月以上,其中最高值超过了11个月;从热带地区到南北半球中纬度地区,随着纬度的升高,月和季节尺度可预报期限也迅速减少。(2)在500 hPa位势高度场上,月和季节尺度可预报期限的空间分布都有明显的季节变化。冬季月和季节尺度可预报期限除了在热带地区较大外,在北太平洋和邻近的北美西北部地区、北大西洋地区以及南极地区,冬季月和季节尺度可预报期限也相对周围地区较高。夏季除了北非和西亚地区月和季节尺度可预报期明显大于冬季以外,大部分地区月和季节尺度可预报期限比冬季明显减少。(3)500 hPa温度场月和季节尺度可预报期限的空间分布以及随季节的变化特征基本上与高度场相同,只是在热带大部分地区,高度场相对温度场来说月和季节尺度可预报性更高,更适合用来作长期预报。  相似文献   

6.
This paper aims to study the relationship between large-scale synoptic patterns and rainfall in Khorasan Razavi Province. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was used in this study to predict rainfall in the period between April and June in Khorasan Razavi Province. We first analyzed the relationship between average regional rainfall and the changes in synoptic patterns including sea-level pressure, sea-level pressure difference, sea-level temperature, temperature difference between sea level and the 1,000-hPa level, the temperature of the 700-hPa level, the thickness between the 500- and 1,000-hPa levels, the relative humidity at the 300-hPa level, and precipitable water content. We have examined the effect of synoptic patterns in these regions on the rainfall in the northeast region of Iran. Then, the ANFIS in the period 1970–1997 has been taught. Finally, we forecast the rainfall for the period 1998–2007. The results show that the ANFIS can predict the rainfall with reasonable accuracy.  相似文献   

7.
利用再分析数据,以在北半球冬季与北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)相关的向下游传播的准定常波列在欧洲地区是否发生反射为标准,将1957/1958年至2001/2002年这45个冬季分为高纬型和低纬型两类冬季,分别简称为在H型和L型冬季。在H(L)型冬季,和NAO相联系的向下游传播的Rossby波列主要沿高纬度(低纬度)路径传播。对比了在两种类型冬季NAO与同期大气环流、近地面温度(Surface Air Temperature,SAT)、海表面温度(Sea Surface Tempertaure,SST)和降水的关系。结果表明:大气环流方面,在H型冬季,300 hPa位势高度异常在西-西伯利亚和中-西伯利亚西部与NAO呈现正相关,而在L型冬季300 hPa位势高度异常在亚洲东海岸(约40°N)和北太平洋呈现正相关,在H型冬季与NAO相关的经向风异常在中纬度形成波列,而在L型冬季与NAO相关的经向风异常在副热带形成波列;SAT方面,在H型冬季SAT异常在欧亚大陆腹地高纬度地区与NAO呈现正相关,而在L型冬季与NAO相关的SAT异常在欧亚大陆腹地的高纬度地区相对较弱,但NAO造成的SAT异常可以扩展到亚洲东北部;降水方面,H型冬季与L型冬季主要区别在中国南方,在H型冬季降水异常与NAO的关系相对较弱,而在L型冬季降水异常与NAO呈现正相关关系;SST方面,同期SST异常在北大西洋中纬度海域与NAO呈现正相关,而在L型冬季与NAO相关的SST异常在北大西洋中纬度地区相对较弱,在北大西洋北部和南部较强。总体而言,在H型和L型冬季,NAO具有不同下游影响。  相似文献   

8.
Reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR are used to systematically study preceding signals of monthly precipitation anomalies in the early raining season of Guangdong province, from the viewpoints of 500-hPa geopotential height field, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) field, sea surface temperature (SST) and fourteen indexes of general circulation depicting atmosphere activity at high, middle and low latitutes. Being multiple tools of information, a number of conceptual models are formulated that are useful for prediction of the magnitude of monthly precipitation (drought, flood and normal conditionss).  相似文献   

9.
Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) is used to study monthly changes in the influence of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on spring, summer and autumn air temperature over China with the January 500 hPa geopotential height data from 1951 to 2004 and monthly temperature data from January to November at 160 stations in China. Several AO indices have been defined with the 500-hPa geopotential data and the index defined as the first principal component of the normalized geopotential data is best to be used to study the influence of the AO on SAT (surface air temperature) in China. There are three modes through which the AO in winter influences SAT in China. The influence of the AO on SAT in China changes monthly and is stronger in spring and summer than in autumn. The main influenced regions are Northeast China and the Changjiang River drainage area.  相似文献   

10.
利用1980~2014年CRU TS3.24月平均气温数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了中国东北暖季(5~9月)气温的时空变化特征及其相应的大气环流状况。结果表明:中国东北暖季气温主要表现为全区一致型和南北反位相型两个模态,二者总解释方差高达86%。全区一致型具有明显的年代际变化特征,并在1990年代中期发生了显著的年代际突变,而南北反位相型具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征。全区一致型增暖对应着中国东北地区上空500 hPa位势高度的正异常和850 hPa的反气旋环流异常。当500 hPa位势高度南北反相时,对应于中国东北暖季气温的南北反位相型。进一步分析表明中国东北暖季气温的全区一致型及其1990年代中期的年代际突变与日本海及黑潮延伸区的海温异常及太平洋年代际振荡和大西洋多年代际振荡指数紧密相关。菲律宾以东的西太平洋、北太平洋中部、我国东南沿海、靠近北美东北部的北大西洋等海域的海温异常对中国东北暖季气温全区一致型的出现具有一定的预测作用。而南北反位相变化型与黑潮延伸区的海温异常关系显著,与大尺度指数的相关普遍不明显。在1990年代中期突变前,南北反位相型受到ENSO事件的影响,之后影响不显著。  相似文献   

11.
This study provides some guidance on the choice of predictor variables from both reanalysis products and the third version of the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) outputs for regression-based statistical downscaling models (SDMs) for climate change application in southern Québec (Canada). Twenty CGCM3 grid points and four surface observation sites in the study area were employed. Twenty-five deseasonalized predictors and four deseasonalized predictands (daily maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation occurrence and wet day precipitation amount) were used to investigate correlation coefficients among predictors and to evaluate their predictive ability when used in a multiple linear regression (MLR) downscaling model. The basic statistical characteristics of vorticity at 1,000-, 850- and 500-hPa levels, U-component of velocity at 1,000-hPa level, temperature at 2?m (T 2) and wind direction at 1,000- and 500-hPa level of CGCM3 showed a larger difference with those of the NCEP reanalysis data. Therefore, those seven variables require high caution to be included as predictors in statistical downscaling models. Specific humidity at 1,000-, 850- and 500-hPa levels, geopotential height at 850- and 500-hPa levels and T 2 were the most sensitive predictors for future climate conditions (i.e. A1B and A2 emission scenarios). Specific humidity and geopotential height at different levels and T 2 were important explainable predictors for the daily temperatures. Mean sea level pressure, specific humidity, U and V components and divergence showed potential as predictors for daily precipitation. Spatial explained variance of MLRs between predictors of every different CGCM3 grid points and the four predictands showed large values at the CGCM3 grid points located near the observation sites, whereas relatively small values were shown at the CGCM3 grid points located more than 400?km from the sites. The explained variance of the downscaled predictands by predictors of three or four CGCM3 grid points located near the observation site produced 2–5% larger R-squares than those by predictors of the nearest grid point. The results illustrated that the use of predictors from more than one AOGCM grid points located near the observation site can increase the skill of the MLR downscaling models.  相似文献   

12.
Summary Seventeen years of sea level pressure (SLP), 200-hPa zonal wind and 500-hPa geopotential height data were used to investigate the boreal winter and summer interannual (IA) circulation patterns. The IA patterns for these variables and for their zonally asymmetric (ZA) part were determined by performing empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses on the SLP and on ZA SLP. The corresponding patterns for the other variables were obtained by correlating their time series with the amplitude time series of these EOF analyses. For both seasons, the SLP and ZA SLP show a zonal wavenumber one pattern extending from the tropics into the winter hemisphere extratropics, which is consistent with the circulation anomalies related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles. The zonal wavenumber one pattern observed for the boreal winter describes the SLP and ZA SLP variations related to the mature state of the El Niño and La Niña episodes, and that for the summer, the SLP and ZA SLP variations associated with the initial or decay stages of these phenomena. The 200-hPa zonal wind and 500-hPa geopotential height patterns exhibit strong seasonal dependence, and the ZA parts of these two variables show even more pronounced seasonal differences. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of the atmospheric circulation, in particular at the upper tropospheric levels, might play an important role in extending the IA wavetrain-like structure into the subtropics as noted for the 200-hPa zonal wind and its ZA part in the Pacific/Americas sector. This wavetrain-like structure shows its Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH) branches for the boreal winter, and only its SH branch, for the boreal summer. Thus, the effects of the seasonal cycle of the atmospheric circulation on the IA patterns seem to be stronger for the NH.With 9 Figures  相似文献   

13.
Heavy rainfall events in austral summer are responsible for almost all the natural disasters in Southeast Brazil. They are mostly associated with two types of atmospheric perturbations: Cold Front (53%) and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (47%). The important question of what synoptic characteristics distinguish a heavy rainfall event (HRE) from a normal rainfall event (NRE) is addressed in this study. Here, the evolutions of such characteristics are identified through the anomalies with respect to climatology of the composite fields of atmospheric variables. The anomalies associated with HRE are significantly more intense than those associated with NRE in all fundamental atmospheric variables such as outgoing long-wave radiation, sea-level pressure, 500-hPa geopotential, lower and upper tropospheric winds. The moisture flux convergence over Southeast Brazil in the HRE composites is 60% larger than in the NRE composites. The energetics calculations for the HRE that occurred in the beginning of February 1988 strongly suggest that the barotropic instability played an important role in the intensification of the perturbation. These results, especially the intensities of the wind, pressure anomalies, and the moisture convergence are useful for the meteorologists of the Southeast Brazil for forecasting heavy precipitation.  相似文献   

14.
成都地区一次持续性污染过程天气特征分析   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4       下载免费PDF全文
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、地面气象观测资料,重点分析了2013年1月成都地区一次重污染天气过程的天气背景以及地面气象要素演变。结果表明:(1)此次持续的污染天气出现在高空为弱脊控制且位势高度场异常偏高,地面处于变性高压脊或均压场且近地面层风速较弱的静稳天气背景下。(2)产生此次高污染(高AQI)的地面气象条件为:地面冷高压逐渐变性,近地面温度升高,海平面气压降低,近地面相对湿度升高至80%左右,无降水或弱降水,能见度将降低至于10km以下,地面风速减弱。(3)中低层弱风速,弱的水平风垂直切变,700h Pa层附近和近地面层的逆温层,不利于污染物在垂直方向上的扩散,使得污染进一步加剧。   相似文献   

15.
2002年夏季中高纬大气准双周振荡对华南降水的影响   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
孔晓宇  毛江玉  吴国雄 《大气科学》2017,41(6):1204-1220
利用JRA55大气再分析资料和TRMM卫星降水资料,分析了2002年夏季(5~8月)华南地区降水的低频振荡特征,重点揭示了对其影响显著的中高纬大气季节内振荡的环流结构及演变。小波和功率谱分析表明,2002年夏季华南降水表现为主周期为10~30 d的准双周低频振荡。典型低频降水事件及合成分析指出,准双周降水的强(弱)变化除了受低空西北太平洋副热带高压西伸进入(东移退出)南海的影响以外,还显著地依赖于中高纬地区高空大气环流的季节内振荡。在对流层高层,中高纬度地区存在一支自大西洋经欧亚大陆的气旋—反气旋相间排列的低频波列。该波列在欧亚大陆地区向东南传播,当异常反气旋和气旋分别位于青藏高原和华北上空时,这种偶极型环流之间的高空辐散场有利于华南地区上升运动的发展,因而华南降水偏强;反之,华南降水偏弱。研究还表明,低频波列南移造成了对流层异常温度平流和副热带高层异常绝对涡度的变化,使得华南地区上升与下沉运动交替出现以及相应的经向环流圈反转,从而导致华南准双周振荡干湿位相的转换。局地异常感热加热对干湿位相转换也起一定作用。时滞相关分析发现,当青藏高原地区500 hPa位势高度异常场超前于华南异常降水4 d(即位相差为1/4周期)时,二者出现显著正相关,表明青藏高原地区500 hPa位势高度异常对预测华南地区季节内降水变化有潜在的应用价值。  相似文献   

16.
Based on monthly mean wind, geopotential height, specific humidity, and surface pressure of NCAR/NCEP reanalysis, NOAA-reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) of the Indian Ocean, and daily precipitation data at 97 meteorological stations over the eastern NW China in the past 47 years, the threshold values for extreme precipitation events (EPE) are defined using the percentile method. Singular Value Decomposition and synthetic analysis methods are used to analyze the relationship between summer EPE in the eastern NW China and SSTA in the preceding fall, winter, spring, and the concurrent summer. The result shows that preceding spring SST anomalies (SSTA) in the Indian Ocean are clear indicators for the forecast of summer EPE in the eastern NW China, and a key area of impact is located in the equatorial Indian Ocean. When spring SST is anomalously high in the equatorial Indian Ocean, the meridional circulation averaged over 100°E–110°E will be anomalously ascending near the equator but anomalously descending near 30°N in the middle and upper troposphere from the concurrent to the subsequent summer. In the meantime, the Southwest Monsoon from the Indian Ocean will be anomalously weak and there will be no anomalous water vapor transport to the eastern NW China, resulting in a lack of EPE in the subsequent summer, and vice versa. In addition, in response to anomalously high SST in the equatorial Indian Ocean in spring, the South Asia high pressure tends to be strong in the subsequent summer and more to the west. In the anomalously low SST year, however, the South Asia high tends to be weak in the subsequent summer and more to the east. This is another possible cause of the variation of summer EPE in the eastern NW China.  相似文献   

17.
The work is a general survey SSTA data of the Indian Ocean and of precipitation at 160 Chinese weather stations over 1951~1997(47years).It reveals that the dipole oscillation of SST,especially the dipole index of March~May,in the eastern and western parts of the ocean correlates well with the precipitation during the June~August raining season in China.As shown in analysis of 500-hPa Northern Hemisphere geopotential height height by NCEP for 1958-1995,the Indian Ocean dipole index(IODI) is closely related with geopotential height anomalies in the middle-and higher-latitudes in the Eurasian region.As a negative phase year of IODI corresponds to significant Pacific-Japan(PJ) wavetrain,it is highly likely that the SST for the dipole may affect the precipitation in China through the wavetrain.Additionally,correlation analysis of links between SST dipole index of the Indian Ocean region and air temperature in China also shows good correlation between the former and wintertime temperature in southern China.  相似文献   

18.
辽宁汛期暴雨的大气环流特征分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
应用合成分析、距平分析和位势平均等方法,基于美国NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料和辽宁地区逐日降水资料,对辽宁地区汛期暴雨的大气环流、风场、温度场和湿度场特征进行对比分析。结果表明:在厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜背景下,辽宁夏季多暴雨月与少暴雨月相比,对应的500 hPa高度距平场、500 hPa风矢量与温度距平叠合场以及850 hPa水汽输送矢量场,均存在着显著的差异;同样是暴雨多(少)的月份,对应的厄尔尼诺与拉尼娜背景相比,500 hPa高度距平场、500 hPa风矢量与温度距平叠合场以及850 hPa水汽输送矢量场均有不同的表现。  相似文献   

19.
Diagnostic studies have been done of the seasonal and interdecadal variations of the coupling patterns for the air-sea interactions in the northern Pacific region, by using 500-hPa geopotential height field of the Northern Hemisphere and monthly mean SST field of northern Pacific Ocean (1951 ~ 1995) and with the aid of the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) technique. The results show that: (1) The distribution patterns of SVD, which link with the El Nifo (or La Nina) events, are important in the interaction between the atmosphere and ocean while the atmosphere, coupling with it, varies like the PNA teleconnection does. The coupling of airsea interactions is the highest in the winter (January), specifically linking the El Nino event with the PNA pattern in the geopotential height field. Of the four seasons, summer has the poorest coupling when the 500-hPa geopotential height field corresponding to the La Nina event displays patterns similar to the East Asian-Pacific one (PJ). The spring and autumn are both transitional and the coupling is less tight in the autumn than in the spring. (2) Significant changes have taken place around 1976 in the pattern of air-sea coupling, with the year's winter having intensified PNA pattern of 500-hPa winter geopotential height field, deepened Aleutian low that moves southeast and the summer following it having outstanding PJ pattern of 500-hPa geopotential height field.which is not so before 1976.  相似文献   

20.
在对逐日气象资料进行纬向谐波分析的基础上, 对比和讨论了2007/2008年冬季强极涡期间和2008/2009冬季弱极涡期间平流层和对流层不同波数的行星波的变化特征, 特别关注强极涡或弱极涡发生之后, 500 hPa 沿60°N和30°N行星波1波和2波振幅和位相的差异, 以及相应的500 hPa位势场的差异, 进而讨论为什么不同的平流层极涡异常会对东亚有不同的影响, 特别讨论为什么同一种极涡异常, 对我国南北方近地面气温的影响会不同。结果表明:平流层极涡发生异常时, 平流层行星波活动有明显的异常。随着极涡异常的下传, 对流层行星波的振幅和位相也有明显的变化, 而且, 对于不同的纬度带, 其变化又有不同, 表现为:2008年1月强极涡发生之后, 500 hPa行星波1波和2波的扰动都向南伸, 而2009年1月的弱极涡(SSW)期间和之后, 1波和2波的扰动都偏北; 在对流层, 强极涡和弱极涡发生之后不但行星波1波和2波的振幅有所差异, 其位相也有明显的不同。特别是, 其位相的差异还随纬度而变化。就同一年(或者说对于同是强极涡或者同是弱极涡)而言, 无论是1波还是2波, 在60°N和30°N附近的扰动相比, 几乎反位相。这样就使得它们的500 hPa 位势场也有明显不同:在东半球, 主要表现为乌拉尔高压和东亚大槽的强度和位置不同。2008年1月强极涡发生之后, 乌拉尔高压和东亚大槽东移, 不利于冷空气向欧亚大陆北部(包括我国北方)的输送, 使这些地区的温度偏高;而2009年1月弱极涡之后, 东亚大槽西退, 利于冷空气向欧亚大陆北部输送, 导致这些地区较冷。对于同一种极涡异常(如2008强极涡或者2009弱极涡)由于南方和北方行星波扰动的位相不同, 对南方和北方冷暖空气的输送也就不一样。所以同一种极涡异常对(我国)南北地区的温度影响是不同的。  相似文献   

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