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1.
Analysis of data, covering four rainy seasons, of rain current, point-discharge current and potential gradient reveal novel relations in the form (i) $$Q_{r + } /Q_{r - } = k_1 (T_{r + } /T_{r - } )^{1.1} $$ for rain charge and duration ratios; and (ii) $$Q_{p - } /Q_{p + } = k_2 (T_{p - } /T_{p + } )^{1.1} $$ for point charge and duration ratios, where thek's are constants; and (iii) $$i_r = - \alpha (i_p - c)$$ for rain and point-discharge current densities, where α has the same value for all types of rain andc is a constant controlled by the rainfall intensityR. For rain not associated with point discharge the relation takes the familiar form $$i_r = - AR(E - \bar E)$$ Theoretical values are obtained for \ga andA on the basis of the Wilson ion-capture theory as worked out in detail by Whipple and Chalmers.  相似文献   

2.
Application of the silica geothermometer to over 70,000 non-thermal groundwaters from the United States has shown that there is a correlation between the average silica geotemperatures for a region (T SiO2 in °C) and the known regional heat flow (q in mW m?2) of the form: 1 $$TSiO_2 = mq + b$$ wherem andb are constants determined to be 0.67°C m2 mW?1 and 13.2°C respectively. The physical significance of ‘b’ is the mean annual air temperature. The slope ‘m’ is related to the minimum average depth to which the groundwaters may circulate. This minimum depth is estimated to be between 1.4 and 2.0 km depending on the rock type. A preliminary heat flow map based on equation (1) is presented using theT SiO2 for new estimates of regional heat flow where conventional data are lacking. Anomalously high localT SiO2 values indicate potential geothermal areas.  相似文献   

3.
We estimate the corner frequencies of 20 crustal seismic events from mainshock–aftershock sequences in different tectonic environments (mainshocks 5.7 < M W < 7.6) using the well-established seismic coda ratio technique (Mayeda et al. in Geophys Res Lett 34:L11303, 2007; Mayeda and Malagnini in Geophys Res Lett, 2010), which provides optimal stability and does not require path or site corrections. For each sequence, we assumed the Brune source model and estimated all the events’ corner frequencies and associated apparent stresses following the MDAC spectral formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised magnitude and distance amplitude correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001), which allows for the possibility of non-self-similar source scaling. Within each sequence, we observe a systematic deviation from the self-similar \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - 3} \) line, all data being rather compatible with \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - (3 + \varepsilon )} \) , where ε > 0 (Kanamori and Rivera in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:314–319, 2004). The deviation from a strict self-similar behavior within each earthquake sequence of our collection is indicated by a systematic increase in the estimated average static stress drop and apparent stress with increasing seismic moment (moment magnitude). Our favored physical interpretation for the increased apparent stress with earthquake size is a progressive frictional weakening for increasing seismic slip, in agreement with recent results obtained in laboratory experiments performed on state-of-the-art apparatuses at slip rates of the order of 1 m/s or larger. At smaller magnitudes (M W < 5.5), the overall data set is characterized by a variability in apparent stress of almost three orders of magnitude, mostly from the scatter observed in strike-slip sequences. Larger events (M W > 5.5) show much less variability: about one order of magnitude. It appears that the apparent stress (and static stress drop) does not grow indefinitely at larger magnitudes: for example, in the case of the Chi–Chi sequence (the best sampled sequence between M W 5 and 6.5), some roughly constant stress parameters characterize earthquakes larger than M W ~ 5.5. A representative fault slip for M W 5.5 is a few tens of centimeters (e.g., Ide and Takeo in J Geophys Res 102:27379–27391, 1997), which corresponds to the slip amount at which effective lubrication is observed, according to recent laboratory friction experiments performed at seismic slip velocities (V ~ 1 m/s) and normal stresses representative of crustal depths (Di Toro et al. in Nature in press, 2011, and references therein). If the observed deviation from self-similar scaling is explained in terms of an asymptotic increase in apparent stress (Malagnini et al. in Pure Appl Geophys, 2014, this volume), which is directly related to dynamic stress drop on the fault, one interpretation is that for a seismic slip of a few tens of centimeters (M W ~ 5.5) or larger, a fully lubricated frictional state may be asymptotically approached.  相似文献   

4.
Applications of the entrainment process to layers at the boundary, which meet the self similarity requirements of the logarithmic profile, have been studied. By accepting that turbulence has dominating scales related in scale length to the height above the surface, a layer structure is postulated wherein exchange is rapid enough to keep the layers internally uniform. The diffusion rate is then controlled by entrainment between layers. It has been shown that theoretical relationships derived on the basis of using a single layer of this type give quantitatively correct factors relating the turbulence, wind and shear stress for very rough surface conditions. For less rough surfaces, the surface boundary layer can be divided into several layers interacting by entrainment across each interface. This analysis leads to the following quantitatively correct formula compared to published measurements. 1 $$\begin{gathered} \frac{{\sigma _w }}{{u^* }} = \left( {\frac{2}{{9Aa}}} \right)^{{1 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {1 4}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} 4}} \left( {1 - 3^{{1 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {1 2}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} 2}} \frac{a}{k}\frac{{d_n }}{z}\frac{{\sigma _w }}{{u^* }}\frac{z}{L}} \right)^{{1 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {1 4}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} 4}} \hfill \\ = 1.28(1 - 0.945({{\sigma _w } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\sigma _w } {u^* }}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {u^* }})({z \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {z L}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} L})^{{1 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {1 4}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} 4}} \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ where \(u^* = \left( {{\tau \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {\tau \rho }} \right. \kern-0em} \rho }} \right)^{{1 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {1 2}} \right. \kern-0em} 2}} \) , σ w is the standard deviation of the vertical velocity,z is the height andL is the Obukhov scale lenght. The constantsa, A, k andd n are the entrainment constant, the turbulence decay constant, Von Karman's constant, and the layer depth derived from the theory. Of these,a andA, are universal constants and not empirically determined for the boundary layer. Thus the turbulence needed for the plume model of convection, which resides above these layers and reaches to the inversion, is determined by the shear stress and the heat flux in the surface layers. This model applies to convection in cool air over a warm sea. The whole field is now determined except for the temperature of the air relative to the water, and the wind, which need a further parameter describing sea surface roughness. As a first stop to describing a surface where roughness elements of widely varying sizes are combined this paper shows how the surface roughness parameter,z 0, can be calculated for an ideal case of a random distribution of vertical cylinders of the same height. To treat a water surface, with various sized waves, such an approach modified to treat the surface by the superposition of various sized roughness elements, is likely to be helpful. Such a theory is particularly desirable when such a surface is changing, as the ocean does when the wind varies. The formula, 2 $$\frac{{0.118}}{{a_s C_D }}< z_0< \frac{{0.463}}{{a_s C_D (u^* )}}$$ is the result derived here. It applies to cylinders of radius,r, and number,m, per unit boundary area, wherea s =2rm, is the area of the roughness elements, per unit area perpendicular to the wind, per unit distance downwind. The drag coefficient of the cylinders isC D . The smaller value ofz o is for large Reynolds numbers where the larger scale turbulence at the surface dominates, and the drag coefficient is about constant. Here the flow between the cylinders is intermittent. When the Reynolds number is small enough then the intermittent nature of the turbulence is reduced and this results in the average velocity at each level determining the drag. In this second case the larger limit forz 0 is more appropriate.  相似文献   

5.
We extend to the case of intermediate and deep earthquakes the mantle magnitude developed for shallow shocks byokal andTalandier (1989). Specifically, from the measurement of the spectral amplitude of Rayleigh waves at a single station, we obtain a mantle magnitude,M m, theoretically related to the seismic moment of the event through $$M_m = \log _{10} M_0 - 20.$$ The computation ofM minvolves two corrections. The distance correction is the same as for shallow shocks. For the purpose of computing the frequency-dependent source correction, we define three depth windows: Intermediate (A) (75 to 200 km); Intermediate (B) (200–400 km) and Deep (over 400 km). In each window, the source correctionC S is modeled by a cubic spline of log10 T. Analysis of a dataset of 200 measurements (mostly from GEOSCOPE stations) shows that the seismic moment of the earthquakes is recovered with a standard deviation of 0.23 units of magnitude, and a mean bias of only 0.14 unit. These figures are basically similar to those for shallow events. Our method successfully recognizes truly large deep events, such as the 1970 Colombia shock, and errors due to the potential misclassification of events into the wrong depth window are minimal.  相似文献   

6.
A modified formula of the cumulative frequency-magnitude relation has been formulated and tested in a previous paper by the authors of this study. Based on the modified relationship, the following reoccurrence formulas have been obtained.
  1. For the ‘T-years period’ larger earthquake magnitude,M T $$M_T = \frac{1}{{A_3 }}ln\frac{{A_2 }}{{(1/T) + A_1 }}.$$
  2. For the value of the maximum earthquake magnitude, which is exceeded with probabilityP inT-years period,M PT $$M_{PT} = \frac{{ln(A_2 .T)}}{{A_3 }} - \frac{{ln[A_1 .T - ln(1 - P)]}}{{A_3 }}.$$
  3. For the probability of occurrence of an earthquake of magnitudeM in aT-years period,P MT $$P_{MT} = 1 - \exp [ - T[ - A_1 + A_2 \exp ( - A_3 M)]].$$
The above formulas provide estimates of the probability of reoccurrence of the largest earthquake events which are significantly more realistic than those based on the Gutenberg-Richter relationships; at least for numerous tested earthquake samples from the major area of Greece.  相似文献   

7.
Seismic source characteristics of low-yield (0.5–5 kt) underground explosions are inferred from hydrodynamic simulations using a granite material model on high-performance (parallel) computers. We use a non-linear rheological model for granite calibrated to historical near-field nuclear test data. Equivalent elastic P-wave source spectra are derived from the simulated hydrodynamic response using reduced velocity potentials. Source spectra and parameters are compared with the models of Mueller and Murphy (Bull Seism Soc Am 61:1675–1692, 1971, hereafter MM71) and Denny and Johnson (Explosion source phenomenology, pp 1–24, 1991, hereafter DJ91). The source spectra inferred from the simulations of different yields at normal scaled depth-of-burial (SDOB) match the MM71 spectra reasonably well. For normally buried nuclear explosions, seismic moments are larger for the hydrodynamic simulations than MM71 (by 25 %) and for DJ91 (by over a factor of 2), however, the scaling of moment with yield across this low-yield range is consistent for our calculations and the two models. Spectra from our simulations show higher corner frequencies at the lower end of the 0.5–5.0 kt yield range and stronger variation with yield than the MM71 and DJ91 models predict. The spectra from our simulations have additional energy above the corner frequency, probably related to non-linear near-source effects, but at high frequencies the spectral slopes agree with the f ?2 predictions of MM71. Simulations of nuclear explosions for a range of SDOB from 0.5 to 3.9 show stronger variations in the seismic moment than predicted by the MM71 and DJ91 models. Chemical explosions are found to generate higher moments by a factor of about two compared to nuclear explosions of the same yield in granite and at normal depth-of-burial, broadly consistent with comparisons of nuclear and chemical shots at the US Nevada Test Site (Denny, Proceeding of symposium on the non-proliferation experiment, Rockville, Maryland, 1994). For all buried explosions, the region of permanent deformation and material damage is not spherical but extends along the free surface above and away from the source. The effect of damage induced by a normally buried nuclear explosion on seismic radiation is explored by comparing the motions from hydrodynamic simulations with those for point-source elastic Green’s functions. Results show that radiation emerging at downward takeoff angles appears to be dominated by the expected isotropic source contribution, while at shallower angles the motions are complicated by near-surface damage and cannot be represented with the addition of a simple secondary compensated linear vector dipole point source above the shot point. The agreement and differences of simulated source spectra with the MM71 and DJ91 models motivates the use of numerical simulations to understand observed motions and investigate seismic source features for underground explosions in various emplacement media and conditions, including non-linear rheological effects such as material strength and porosity.  相似文献   

8.
A probabilistic relation between seismic activity and the volumeV of extracted deposits in mines is derived $$\Sigma E = C \cdot V^B ,$$ whereC andB are parameters characterizing mining works and the state of rock mass. Assuming that the measure of seismic hazard is the amount of seismic energy released in a given time interval, it is shown how the hazard can be evaluated continuously. The derived relations were tested in selected coal mines in Upper Silesia.  相似文献   

9.
The Aegean and surrounding area (34°N–43°N, 18°E–30°E) is separated into 76 shallow and intermediate depth seismogenic sources. For 74 of these sources intervent times for strong mainshocks have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data. These times have been used to determine the following empirical relations: $$\begin{gathered} \log T_t = 0.24M_{\min } + 0.25M_p - 0.36\log \dot M_0 + 7.36 \hfill \\ M_f = 1.04M_{\min } - 0.31M_p + 0.28\log \dot M_0 - 4.85 \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ whereT 1 is the interevent time, measured in years,M min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest mainshock considered,M p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock,M f the magnitude of the following mainshock, \(\dot M_0 \) the moment rate in each source per year. A multiple correlation coefficient equal to 0.74 and a standard deviation equal to 0.18 for the first of these relations were calculated. The corresponding quantities for the second of these relations are 0.91 and 0.22. On the basis of the first of these relations and taking into consideration the time of occurence and the magnitude of the last mainshock, the probabilities for the occurrence of mainshocks in each seismogenic source of this region during the decade 1993–2002 are determined. The second of these relations has been used to estimate the magnitude of the expected mainshock.  相似文献   

10.
Seismic coda wave attenuation ( $ Q_{\text{c}}^{ - 1} $ ) characteristics in the Garhwal region, northwestern Himalaya is studied using 113 short-period, vertical component seismic observations from local events with hypocentral distance less than 250?km and magnitude range between 1.0 to 4.0. They are located mainly in the vicinity of the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and the Main Central Thrust (MCT), which are well-defined tectonic discontinuities in the Himalayas. Coda wave attenuation ( $ Q_{\text{c}}^{ - 1} $ ) is estimated using the single isotropic scattering method at central frequencies 1.5, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 16, 20, 24 and 28?Hz using several starting lapse times and coda window lengths for the analysis. Results show that the ( $ Q_{\text{c}}^{ - 1} $ ) values are frequency dependent in the considered frequency range, and they fit the frequency power law ( $ Q_{\text{c}}^{ - 1} \left( f \right) = Q_{0}^{ - 1} f^{ - n} $ ). The Q 0 (Q c at 1?Hz) estimates vary from about 50 for a 10?s lapse time and 10?s window length, to about 350 for a 60?s lapse time and 60?s window length combination. The exponent of the frequency dependence law, n ranges from 1.2 to 0.7; however, it is greater than 0.8, in general, which correlates well with the values obtained in other seismically and tectonically active and highly heterogeneous regions. The attenuation in the Garhwal region is found to be lower than the Q c ?1 values obtained for other seismically active regions of the world; however, it is comparable to other regions of India. The spatial variation of coda attenuation indicates that the level of heterogeneity decreases with increasing depth. The variation of coda attenuation has been estimated for different lapse time and window length combinations to observe the effect with depth and it indicates that the upper lithosphere is more active seismically as compared to the lower lithosphere and the heterogeneity decreases with increasing depth.  相似文献   

11.
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12.
Rock masses contain ubiquitous multiscale heterogeneities, which (or whose boundaries) serve as the surfaces of discontinuity for some characteristics of the stress state, e.g., for the orientation of principal stress axes. Revealing the regularities that control these discontinuities is a key to understanding the processes taking place at the boundaries of the heterogeneities and for designing the correct procedures for reconstructing and theoretical modeling of tectonic stresses. In the present study, the local laws describing the refraction of the axes of extreme principal stresses T 1 (maximal tension in the deviatoric sense) and T 3 (maximal compression) of the Cauchy stress tensor at the transition over the elementary area n of discontinuity whose orientation is specified by the unit normal n are derived. It is assumed that on the area n of discontinuity, frictional contact takes place. No hypotheses are made on the constitutive equations, and a priori constraints are not posed on the orientation on the stress axes. Two domains, which adjoin area n on the opposite sides and are conventionally marked + and ?, are distinguished. In the case of the two-dimensional (2D) stress state, any principal stress axis on passing from domain ? to domain + remains in the same quadrant of the plane as the continuation of this axis in domain +. The sign and size of the refraction angle depend on the sign and amplitude of the jump of the normal stress, which is tangential to the surface of discontinuity. In the three-dimensional (3D) case, the refraction of axes T 1 and T 3 should be analyzed simultaneously. For each side, + and ?, the projections of the T 1 and T 3 axes on the generally oriented plane n form the shear sectors S + and S ?, which are determined unambiguously and to whose angular domains the possible directions p + and p ? of the shear stress vectors belong. In order for the extreme stress axes T 1 + ,T 3 + and T 1 ? , T 3 ? to be statically compatible on the generally oriented plane n, it is required that sectors S + and S ? had a nonempty intersection. The direction vectors p + and p ? are determined uniquely if, besides axes T 1 ? , T 3 ? and T 1 + , T 3 + , also the ratios of differential stresses R + and R ? (0 ≤ R ± ≤ 1) are known. This is equivalent to specifying the reduced stress tensors T R + and T R ? The necessary condition for tensors T R + and T R ? being statically compatible on plane n is the equality p + = p ?. In this paper, simple methods are suggested for solving the inverse problem of constructing the set of the orientations of the extreme stress axes from the known direction p of the shear stress vector on plane n and from the data on the shear sector. Based on these methods and using the necessary conditions of local equilibrium on plane n formulated above, all the possible orientations of axes T 1 + , T 3 + are determined if the projections of axes T 1 ? , T 3 ? axes on side — are given. The angle between the projections of axes T 1 + , T 1 ? and/or T 3 + , T 3 ? on the plane can attain 90°. Besides the general case, also the particular cases of the contact between the degenerate stress states and the special position of plane n relative to the principal stress axes are thoroughly examined. Generalization of the obtained results makes it possible to plot the local diagram of the orientations of axes T 1 + , T 3 + for a given sector S ?. This diagram is a so-called stress orientation sphere, which is subdivided into three pairs of areas (compression, tension, and compression-extension). The tension and compression zones cannot contain the poles of T 3 + and T 1 + axes, respectively. The compression-extension zones can contain the poles of either T 1 + or T 3 + axis but not both poles simultaneously. In the particular case when the shear stress vector has a unique direction p ? on side ?, the areas of compression-extension disappear and the diagram is reduced to a beach-ball plot, which visualizes the focal mechanism solution of an earthquake. If area n is a generally oriented plane and if the orientation of the pairs of the statically compatible axes T 1 ? , T 3 ? and T 1 + , T 3 + is specified, then, the stress values on side + are uniquely determined from the known stress values on side ?. From the value of differential stress ratio R ?, one can calculate the value of R +, and using the values of the principal stresses on side ?, determine the total stress tensor T + on side +. The obtained results are supported by the laboratory experiments and drilling data. In particular, these results disclose the drawbacks of some established notions and methods in which the possible refraction of the stress axes is unreasonably ignored or taken into account improperly. For example, it is generally misleading to associate the slip on the preexisting fault with the orientation of any particular trihedron of the principal stress axes. The reconstruction should address the potentially statically compatible principal stress axes, which are differently oriented on opposite sides of the fault plane. The fact that, based on the orientation of the intraplate principal stresses at the base of the lithosphere, one cannot make a conclusion on the active or passive influence of the mantle flows on the lithospheric plate motion is another example. The present relationships linking the stress values on the opposite sides of the fault plane on which the orientations of the principal stress axes are known demonstrate the incorrectness of the existing methods, in which the reduced stress tensors within the material domains are reconstructed without allowance for the dynamic interaction of these domains with their neighbors. In addition, using the obtained results, one can generalize the notion of the zone of dynamical control of a fault onto the case of the existence of discontinuities in this region and analyze the stress transfer across the system of the faults.  相似文献   

13.
—Systematic variations of the seismic radial anisotropy ξ to depths of 200–250 km in North America and Eurasia and their surroundings are related to the age of continental provinces, and typical depth dependences of ξ R are determined. The relative radial anisotropy ξ R in the mantle lithosphere of Phanerozoic orogenic belts is characterized by ν SH > ν SV , with its maximum depth of about 70 km, on the average, while beneath old shields and platforms, it exhibits a maximum deviation from ACY400 model (Montagner and Anderson, 1989) at depths of about 100 km with ν SV ≥ν SH signature. An interpretation of the observed seismic anisotropy by the preferred orientation of olivine crystals results in a model of the mantle lithosphere characterized by anisotropic structures plunging steeply beneath old shields and platforms, compared to less inclined anisotropies beneath Phanerozoic regions. This observation supports the idea derived from petrological and geochemical observations that a mode of continental lithosphere generation may have changed throughout earth's history.  相似文献   

14.
Unloaded natural rock masses are known to generate seismic signals (Green et al., 2006; Hainzl et al., 2006; Husen et al., 2007; Kraft et al., 2006). Following a 1,000 m3 mass failure into the Mediterranean Sea, centimeter-wide tensile cracks were observed to have developed on top of an unstable segment of the coastal cliff. Nanoseismic monitoring techniques (Wust-Bloch and Joswig, 2006; Joswig, 2008), which function as a seismic microscope for extremely weak seismic events, were applied to verify whether brittle failure is still generated within this unconsolidated sandstone mass and to determine whether it can be detected. Sixteen days after the initial mass failure, three small-aperture sparse arrays (Seismic Navigation Systems-SNS) were deployed on top of this 40-m high shoreline cliff. This paper analyzes dozens of spiky nanoseismic (?2.2 ≥ M L ≥ ?3.4) signals recorded over one night in continuous mode (at 200 Hz) at very short slant distances (3–67 m). Waveform characterization by sonogram analysis (Joswig, 2008) shows that these spiky signals are all short in duration (>0.5 s). Most of their signal energy is concentrated in the 10–75 Hz frequency range and the waveforms display high signal similarity. The detection threshold of the data set reaches M L ?3.4 at 15 m and M L ?2.7 at 67 m. The spatial distribution of source signals shows 3-D clustering within 10 m from the cliff edge. The time distribution of M L magnitude does not display any decay pattern of M L over time. This corroborates an unusual event decay over time (modified Omori’s law), whereby an initial quiet period is followed by regained activity, which then fades again. The polarization of maximal waveform amplitude was used to estimate spatial stress distribution. The orientation of ellipses displaying maximal signal energy is consistent with that of tensile cracks observed in the field and agrees with rock mechanics predictions. The M L– surface rupture length relationship displayed by our data fits a constant-slope extrapolation of empirical data collected by Wells and Coppersmith (1994) for normal fault features at much larger scale. Signal characterization and location as well as the absence of direct anthropogenic noise sources near the monitoring site, all indicate that these nanoseismic signals are generated by brittle failure within the top section of the cliff. The atypical event decay over time that was observed suggests that the cliff material is undergoing post-collapse bulk strain accommodation. This feasibility study demonstrates the potential of nanoseismic monitoring in rapidly detecting, locating and analyzing brittle failure generated within unconsolidated material before total collapse occurs.  相似文献   

15.
Total content is used mostly for balances. In order to calculate the areas of different depths, the contours are cut out of a topographical map and weighed. The formula is derived from the substance concentration (taken as a linear function of the depth), times the volume of a truncated cone. Content of one layer: $$\frac{{\Delta z}}{{l2}}\left[ {\left( {f_l + f_u } \right)^2 \cdot \left( {c_l + c_u } \right) + 2c_l f_l^2 + 2c_u f_u^2 } \right]$$ fu Square root of upper area f1 Square root of lower area cu Concentration at upper depth c1 Concentration at lower depth Δz Difference of depths (i.e. thickness of layer) Sum of contents of all layers gives total content of the lake.  相似文献   

16.
Repeat times of strong shallow mainshocks have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for 68 seismogenic sources in the Aegean and surrounding area (34°N–43°N, 18°E–30°E). For 49 of these sources at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these 49 sources the following relation has been determined: $$\log T_t = 0.36M_{\min } + 0.35M_p + a$$ whereT t is the repeat time, measured in years,M p the surface wave magnitude of the preceding mainshock,M min the magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered and “a” parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.89 was determined for this relation. By using the same repeat times for the 49 seismogenic sources, the following relation has been determined between the magnitude,M f , of the following mainshock andM min andM p . $$M_f = 0.95M_{\min } - 0.49M_p + m$$ wherem is a constant which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.80 was found for this relation. The model expressed by these two relations is represented by a scheme of a time variation of stress under constant tectonic loading. In this scheme, the maximum stress values during the different seismic cycles fluctuate around a value, τ1, in a relatively narrow stress interval, expressing the high correlation coefficient of the relation between LogT andM p . On the contrary, the minimum stress values fluctuate around a value, τ2, in a much broader stress interval. However, each of these minimum stress values becomes lower or higher than τ2 if the previous one is higher or lower than τ2, respectively, expressing the negative correlation betweenM f andM p .  相似文献   

17.
We apply the Bakun and Wentworth (Bull Seism Soc Am 87:1502–1521, 1997) method to determine the location and magnitude of earthquakes occurred in Central Asia using MSK-64 intensity assignments. The attenuation model previously derived and validated by Bindi et al. (Geophys J Int, 2013) is used to analyse 21 earthquakes that occurred over the period 1885–1964, and the estimated locations and magnitudes are compared to values available in literature. Bootstrap analyses are performed to estimate the confidence intervals of the intensity magnitudes, as well as to quantify the location uncertainty. The analyses of seven significant earthquakes for the hazard assessment are presented in detail, including three large historical earthquakes that struck the northern Tien-Shan between the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth centuries: the 1887, M 7.3 Verny, the 1889, M 8.3 Chilik and the 1911, M 8.2 Kemin earthquakes. Regarding the 1911, Kemin earthquake the magnitude values estimated from intensity data are lower (i.e. MILH?=?7.8 and MIW?=?7.6 considering surface wave and moment magnitude, respectively) than the value M?=?8.2 listed in the considered catalog. These values are more in agreement with the value M S?=?7.8 revised by Abe and Noguchi (Phys Earth Planet In, 33:1–11, 1983b) for the surface wave magnitude. For the Kemin earthquake, the distribution of the bootstrap solutions for the intensity centre reveal two minima, indicating that the distribution of intensity assignments do not constrain a unique solution. This is in agreement with the complex source rupture history of the Kemin earthquake, which involved several fault segments with different strike orientations, dipping angles and focal mechanisms (e.g. Delvaux et al. in Russ Geol Geophys 42:1167–1177, 2001; Arrowsmith et al. in Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 86(52), 2005). Two possible locations for the intensity centre are obtained. The first is located on the easternmost sub-faults (i.e. the Aksu and Chon-Aksu segments), where most of the seismic moment was released (Arrowsmith et al. in Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 86(52), 2005). The second location is located on the westernmost sub-faults (i.e. the Dzhil'-Aryk segment), close to the intensity centre location obtained for the 1938, M 6.9 Chu-Kemin earthquake (MILH?=?6.9 and MIW?=?6.8).  相似文献   

18.
Presently available data on the reaction of SO2 with OH radicals (OH + SO2 + \(M\xrightarrow[{k_1 }]{}\) HSO3 +M) are critically reviewed in light of recent stratospheric sulfur budget calculations. These calculations impose that the net oxidation ratek of SO2 within the stratosphere should fall within the range 10?7≤k≤10?9, if the SO2 oxidation model for the stratospheric sulfate layer is assumed to be correct. The effective reaction rate constantk 1 * =k 1[M] at the stratospheric temperature is estimated as $$k_1^* = \frac{{(8.2 \pm 2.2) \times 10^{ - 13} \times [M]}}{{(0.79 \mp 0.34) \times 10^{ - 13} + [M]}}cm^3 /molecules sec$$ where [M] refers to the total number density (molecules/cm3). Using the above limiting values ofk 1 * , and the estimated OH density concentrations, the net oxidation rate is calculated as 3.6×10?7≤k≤1.3×10?8 at 17 km altitude. This indicates that the upper limit of thesek values exceeds the tolerable range imposed by the model by a factor of about four. Obviously the uncertainty of thek 1 * values and of the OH concentrations in the stratosphere is still too large to make definite conclusions on the validity of the SO2 model.  相似文献   

19.
A new estimate of the fracture parameters of earthquakes is provided in this paper. By theMuskhelishvili method (1953) a number of basic relations among fracture-mechanics parameters are derived. A scheme is proposed to evaluate the slip weakening parameters in terms of fault dimension, average slip, and rise time, and the new results are applied to 49 events compiled in the earthquake catalogue ofPurcaru andBerckhemer (1982). The following empirical relations are found in the paper: $$\begin{gathered} \frac{{\tau _B - \tau _f }}{{\tau _\infty - \tau _f }} = 2.339 \hfill \\ {{\omega _c } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\omega _c } {W = 0.113}}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {W = 0.113}} \hfill \\ \log G_c \left( {{{dyne} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{dyne} {cm}}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {cm}}} \right) = 2 \log L (km) + 6.167 \hfill \\ \log \delta _c (cm) = 2 \log L (km) - 1.652 \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ whereG c is the specific fracture energy,ω c the size of the slip weakening zone,δ c the slip weakening displacement,τ B ?τ f the drop in strength in the slip weakening zone,τ ∞?τ f the stress drop,L the fault length, andW the fault width. The investigation of 49 shocks shows that the range of strength dropτ B ?τ f is from several doze to several hundred bars at depthh<400 km, but it can be more than 103 bars ath>500 km; besides, the range of the sizeω c of the strength degradation zone is from a few tenths of a kilometer to several dozen kilometers, and the range of the slip weakening displacementδ c is from several to several hundred centimeters. The specific fracture energyG c is of the order of 108 to 1011 erg cm?2 when the momentM 0 is of the order of 1023 to 1029 dyne cm.  相似文献   

20.
Towards fully data driven ground-motion prediction models for Europe   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
We have used the Artificial Neural Network method (ANN) for the derivation of physically sound, easy-to-handle, predictive ground-motion models from a subset of the Reference database for Seismic ground-motion prediction in Europe (RESORCE). Only shallow earthquakes (depth smaller than 25 km) and recordings corresponding to stations with measured $V_{s30}$ properties have been selected. Five input parameters were selected: the moment magnitude $M_{W}$ , the Joyner–Boore distance $R_{JB}$ , the focal mechanism, the hypocentral depth, and the site proxy $V_{S30}$ . A feed-forward ANN type is used, with one 5-neuron hidden layer, and an output layer grouping all the considered ground motion parameters, i.e., peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and 5 %-damped pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at 62 periods from 0.01 to 4 s. A procedure similar to the random-effects approach was developed to provide between and within event standard deviations. The total standard deviation ( $\sigma $ ) varies between 0.298 and 0.378 (log $_{10}$ unit) depending on the period, with between-event and within-event variabilities in the range 0.149–0.190 and 0.258–0.327, respectively. Those values prove comparable to those of conventional GMPEs. Despite the absence of any a priori assumption on the functional dependence, our results exhibit a number of physically sound features: magnitude scaling of the distance dependency, near-fault saturation distance increasing with magnitude, amplification on soft soils and even indications for nonlinear effects in softer soils.  相似文献   

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