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1.
1 INTRODUCTION Flood of the Yellow River occurred frequently in history. The natures of large impact and heavy losses have made the flood of the Yellow River being in the front rank among major rivers in China. Statistics shows that during the period 602 AC to 1938 BC, embankment of the Lower Yellow River had been breached 1590 times and the channel had changed its course for 26 times among which 6 times were major ones. Thus, flood of the Yellow River has endangered economic cons… 相似文献
2.
During the 20th century many floods of different intensity and extent have occurred on the Odra River and its tributaries. On the basis of long-term water level observations five major floods, that affected the entire upper and middle Odra River basin, were chosen for further analysis: June 1902, July 1903, August 1977, August 1985 and July 1997. However, hazardous floods were not only those that covered the whole upper and middle Odra River basin, so several local floods were also studied. Detailed historical analysis was made of meteorological conditions, with special emphasis on precipitation patterns and amounts. Then, on the basis of flood peak time occurrence, the stages of flood wave formation were formulated. The natural flood wave of the Odra River is often modified by hydro-technical infrastructure, the development and improvement of which is briefly described in this paper. In conclusion, a comparison of flood wave characteristics such as rising time, falling time, duration, peak flow and volume is presented. 相似文献
3.
Floods have caused devastating impacts to the environment and society in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Since flooding events are frequent, this marks the need to develop tools for flood early warning. In this study, we propose a satellite based flood index to identify the runoff source areas that largely contribute to extreme runoff production and floods in the basin. Satellite based products used for development of the flood index are CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique: 0.25° by 0.25°, daily) product for calculation of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and a Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) for calculation of the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI). Other satellite products used in this study are for rainfall-runoff modelling to represent rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, vegetation cover and topography. Results of the study show that assessment of spatial and temporal rainfall variability by satellite products may well serve in flood early warning. Preliminary findings on effectiveness of the flood index developed in this study indicate that the index is well suited for flood early warning. The index combines SPI and TWI, and preliminary results illustrate the spatial distribution of likely runoff source areas that cause floods in flood prone areas. 相似文献
4.
The pristine Okavango Delta wetland of northern Botswana is potentially under threat due to water abstraction from its tributaries. We have developed a statistical model which makes it possible to predict the extent of wetland loss which will arise from water abstraction. The model also permits prediction of the maximum area of flooding, and its spatial distribution, three months in advance of the flood maximum. The model was calibrated using maximum areas of seasonal inundation extracted from satellite imagery covering the period 1985–2000, which were correlated with rainfall and total flood discharge. A technique was developed to translate the modelled flood area into a flood map. The methodology can predict maximum area of flooding and its distribution with better than 90% accuracy. An important, although relatively minor, source of error in the spatial distribution of the flood arises from a secular change in flood distribution in the distal Delta which has taken place over the last 15 years. Reconstruction of flooding history back to 1934 suggests that the Delta may be subject to a quasi 80 year climatic oscillation. If this oscillation continues, the extent of flooding will increase in the coming decades. 相似文献
5.
Richard Dawson Jim Hall Paul Sayers Paul Bates Corina Rosu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(6):388-402
A dike system of moderate size has a large number of potential system states, and the loading imposed on the system is inherently
random. If the system should fail, in one of its many potential failure modes, the topography of UK floodplains is usually
such that hydrodynamic modelling of flood inundation is required to generate realistic estimates of flood depth and hence
damage. To do so for all possible failure states may require 1,000s of computationally expensive inundation simulations. A
risk-based sampling technique is proposed in order to reduce the computational resources required to estimate flood risk.
The approach is novel in that the loading and dike system states (obtained using a simplified reliability analysis) are sampled
according to the contribution that a given region of the space of basic variables makes to risk. The methodology is demonstrated
in a strategic flood risk assessment for the city of Burton-upon-Trent in the UK. 5,000 inundation model simulations were
run although it was shown that the flood risk estimate converged adequately after approximately half this number. The case
study demonstrates that, amongst other factors, risk is a complex function of loadings, dike resistance, floodplain topography
and the spatial distribution of floodplain assets. The application of this approach allows flood risk managers to obtain an
improved understanding of the flooding system, its vulnerabilities and the most efficient means of allocating resource to
improve performance. It may also be used to test how the system may respond to future external perturbations. 相似文献
6.
Marwan A. Hassan 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1990,15(5):481-485
Flood bores have been measured in desert stream floods. The bores were steep and small pebbles were observed to be pushed ahead. Bore velocity changed downstream and was controlled by local channel geometry. In narrow reaches, the bore advanced at rates twice those of wide reaches. Mean bore velocity was about 50 per cent of that of mean flow at peak flood discharge. The surfaces of shallow bores were covered by air foams. This was not the case in deeper, faster examples. 相似文献
7.
The variability of flow in river channels influences the spatial and temporal variability of many biophysical processes including the transport of sediment and waterborne pollutants and the recruitment of aquatic animals and plants. In this study, inter- and intra-basin patterns of flood variability are examined for catchments east of Australia’s Great Dividing Range. Three measures of flood variability are explored with uncertainty quantified using bootstrap resampling. The two preferred measures of flood variability (namely a flood quantile ratio and a power law scaling coefficient) produced similar results. Catchments in the wet tropics of far north Queensland experience low flood variability. Flood variability increased southwards through Queensland, reaching a maximum in the vicinity of the Fitzroy and Burnett River basins. The small near-coast catchments of southern Queensland and northern New Wales experience low flood variability. Flood variability is also high in the southern Hunter River and Hawkesbury–Nepean basins. Using L-moment ratio diagrams with data from 424 streamflow stations, we also conclude that the Generalised Pareto distribution is preferable for modelling flood frequency curves for this region. These results provide a regional perspective that can be used to develop new hypotheses about the effects of hydrologic variability on the biophysical characteristics of these Australian rivers. 相似文献
8.
Evaluation of on-line DEMs for flood inundation modeling 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Recent and highly accurate topographic data should be used for flood inundation modeling, but this is not always feasible given time and budget constraints so the utility of several on-line digital elevation models (DEMs) is examined with a set of steady and unsteady test problems. DEMs are used to parameterize a 2D hydrodynamic flood simulation algorithm and predictions are compared with published flood maps and observed flood conditions. DEMs based on airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) are preferred because of horizontal resolution, vertical accuracy (∼0.1 m) and the ability to separate bare-earth from built structures and vegetation. DEMs based on airborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IfSAR) have good horizontal resolution but gridded elevations reflect built structures and vegetation and therefore further processing may be required to permit flood modeling. IfSAR and shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) DEMs suffer from radar speckle, or noise, so flood plains may appear with non-physical relief and predicted flood zones may include non-physical pools. DEMs based on national elevation data (NED) are remarkably smooth in comparison to IfSAR and SRTM but using NED, flood predictions overestimate flood extent in comparison to all other DEMs including LiDAR, the most accurate. This study highlights utility in SRTM as a global source of terrain data for flood modeling. 相似文献
9.
O. N. Dhar P. R. Rakhecha B. N. Mandal R. B. Sangam 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1982,120(3):483-494
The rainstorm of 17 to 21 July 1981 which caused exceptionally heavy rains and floods in arid Rajasthan, was analysed. It was observed that 7 stations in the rainstorm area broke their previous 80-year record of one-day rainfall, and two of these stations equalled their respective estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP). A comparison of areal raindepths of this rainstorm with the similar raindepths of past severe-most rainstorms of this region showed that this rainstorm gave unprecedented raindepths up to about 38 850 sq. km (i.e. 15 000 sq. miles) for a 3-day duration. 相似文献
10.
Global sensitivity analysis is a valuable tool in understanding flood inundation models and deriving decisions on strategies to reduce model uncertainty. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis of a one-dimensional flood inundation model (HEC-RAS) on the River Alzette, Luxembourg, is presented. It is impossible to define sensitivity in a unique way and different methods can lead to a difference in ranking of importance of model factors. In this paper five different methods (Sobol, Kullback–Leibler entropy, Morris, regionalised sensitivity analysis and regression) are applied and the outcomes on selected examples compared. It is demonstrated that the different methods lead to completely different ranking of importance of the parameter factors and that it is impossible to draw firm conclusions about the relative sensitivity of different factors. Moreover, the uncertainty inherent in the sensitivity methods is highlighted. 相似文献
11.
1 INTRODUCTION In recent years, the increased human activities in river basins have resulted in severe soil erosion and subsequent river sedimentation. Higher water levels for the same flow discharge imply that the flood risk has increased, as has the possibility of using flood diversion basins (FDB抯). To reduce the potential flood damage, rapid flood risk prediction and efficient flood damage evaluation are needed. The flood risk prediction is closely related to hydraulic information s… 相似文献
12.
During explosive eruptions the deposition of fine-grained volcanic ash fallout reduces soil permeability, favouring runoff
of meteoric water and thus increasing the occurrence of catastrophic floods. A fully dynamic, two-dimensional model was used
to simulate flooding scenarios in the Vesuvian area following an explosive volcanic eruption. The highest risk occurs in the
catchment area of the Acerra-Nola Plain N and NE of Vesuvius. This plain has a population of 70,000 living in low-lying areas.
This catchment area is vulnerable to ash fall because it lies downwind of the dominant synoptic circulation and it lacks a
natural outflow toward the sea. Our numerical simulations predict dangerous scenarios, even in quiescent periods, during extreme
rain events (return periods of 200 years have been considered), and a significant increase in the extent of the flooded areas
due to renewed volcanic activity. Based on these simulations a hazard zonation has been proposed.
Editorial responsibility: A Woods 相似文献
13.
During February 1990 a flood event on the River Tay with an estimated recurrence interval of 70 years in its lower reaches caused extensive flooding and geomorphological change. The most extensive area of flooding and dramatic geomorphological change, the erosion of two new channels across the floodplain, was in the vicinity of the village of Caputh, Perthshire. The location of the eroded channels relates to the position of former river courses, identifiable by depressions in the floodplain surface and floodplain stratigraphy. The lower floodplain surface elevation and occurrence of gravel and sand deposits along the line of the former river courses caused the area to be more vulnerable to erosion and controlled the morphology of the eroded channels. 相似文献
14.
Malcolm D. Newson 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1978,3(3):277-293
A large data bank of morphometric, cover and climatic data for over a thousand drainage basins of all sizes in the British Isles was set up by the N.E.R.C. Flood Study. The paper describes the selection of these ‘independent’ variables, their degree of correlation, their portrayal of regional variability in the British Isles and their success as predictors of flood variables. The internal adjustment of drainage basins is confirmed, as is the basic physical division of Britain. 相似文献
15.
吉林西部的白城、松原两市是松花江、嫩江、洮儿河的交汇地带，1998年该区域发生特大洪水，洪涝灾害发生不久，位于洪害区内的前郭地震观测站，两项手段出现异常，继而在两市境内发生一系列小震。分析该区域洪涝灾害、前兆异常和地震活动三者之间的关系，研究该类型地震孕震过程中震区应力－应变积累与地下水动态的内在联系，对加深洪涝与地震相关机制的认识将起到一定的参考作用。 相似文献
16.
Zbigniew W. KUNDZEWICZ 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):155-165
近期在很多地方洪水越来越频繁且破坏性更大.20世纪90年代以来全球大洪水造成社会经济财产巨大损失,30次大洪水每次总损失额均超过10×108美元.1990-1998年的9a时间的大洪水爆发的次数比1950-1985年期间Ma大洪水次数还要多.近年来中国大陆也遭受了若干重大洪水灾害(包括1996和1998年两次大的财产损失).与气候变率和变化相关的洪水灾害和易爆发程度的显著增加,这是当前最紧迫的问题.随着气温升高大气中持水量也增加,因此大规模强度的降水的可能性也增大.己观测到高而集中的大降水事件而且这种趋势在未来气候变暖条件下可能增加,大降水事件的增加是洪灾增加的必然条件.当然也有一些其它的非气象因素加剧洪灾的发生,比如土地利用变化(森林砍伐、城市化)导致土壤持水能力下降,径流系数增加;此外,人类占据了洪泛区,可能导致洪水损失增大.另外物质财富在洪泛区的积聚也导致了洪灾损失增加.毫无疑问,由于人类活动和气候的共同作用,未来洪水风险在很多地方可能增加.洪水易爆发程度被认为是暴露系数和调节能力的函数,而且在许多地方所有这些变量都可能增加.而随着暴露系数比人类调节能力增加快,因此洪水易爆发程度增大.然而,要完全从径流变化中区分气候因素导致的强烈自然变率还是直接的人为环境变化是很困难的.由于使用不同的假定情景和不同的气候模型,得到的未来环境的预测结果差异也很大.IPCC第三次评估报告中广泛讨论了气候变化与洪水之间的关系.IPCC第三次评估报告警告说,在东亚季风区非常湿润的季风季节出现的可能性非常大,进而会导致相应地区洪水风险增加.本文总结了迄今为此可收集到的有关长江洪水的资料.利用一些案例来分析研究未来假定情景下气候对水文的影响,并对东亚地区的模拟结果进行了讨论. 相似文献
17.
PAI-OFF: A new proposal for online flood forecasting in flash flood prone catchments 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Process Modelling and Artificial Intelligence for Online Flood Forecasting (PAI-OFF) methodology combines the reliability of physically based, hydrologic/hydraulic modelling with the operational advantages of artificial intelligence. These operational advantages are extremely low computation times and straightforward operation. The basic principle of the methodology is to portray process models by means of ANN. We propose to train ANN flood forecasting models with synthetic data that reflects the possible range of storm events. To this end, establishing PAI-OFF requires first setting up a physically based hydrologic model of the considered catchment and – optionally, if backwater effects have a significant impact on the flow regime – a hydrodynamic flood routing model of the river reach in question. Both models are subsequently used for simulating all meaningful and flood relevant storm scenarios which are obtained from a catchment specific meteorological data analysis. This provides a database of corresponding input/output vectors which is then completed by generally available hydrological and meteorological data for characterizing the catchment state prior to each storm event. This database subsequently serves for training both a polynomial neural network (PoNN) – portraying the rainfall–runoff process – and a multilayer neural network (MLFN), which mirrors the hydrodynamic flood wave propagation in the river. These two ANN models replace the hydrological and hydrodynamic model in the operational mode. After presenting the theory, we apply PAI-OFF – essentially consisting of the coupled “hydrologic” PoNN and “hydrodynamic” MLFN – to the Freiberger Mulde catchment in the Erzgebirge (Ore-mountains) in East Germany (3000 km2). Both the demonstrated computational efficiency and the prediction reliability underline the potential of the new PAI-OFF methodology for online flood forecasting. 相似文献
18.
The influence of a flood event on phytoplankton succession 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The effect of the August 1987 River Reuss flood event on the phytoplankton biocoenosis in Lake Uri (Urnersee, part of Lake Lucerne, Switzerland) was investigated firstly by comparing biological, chemical and physical data sampled before the event with equivalent data sampled after the event; and secondly by comparing the phytoplankton succession in 1987 with that occurring in the floodfree year 1989. As a consequence of the flood, the physical and chemical environment of the phytoplankton was found to have undergone a change which resulted in an alteration in the composition of the phytoplankton community. The phytoplankton community existing previous to the flood event, which had been dominated byTabellaria fenestrata sensu Husted 1930 (K-strategist), was replaced by a biocoenosis characterized mainly by various species of flagellates, which represent a typical spring successional stage (r-strategists). After the externally-imposed perturbation, the return to stable physical and chemical conditions was followed by the re-establishment of the successional stage which had existed before the flood (termed reversion by Reynolds, 1980). 相似文献
19.
S. X. Wang Vijay P. Singh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1994,8(3):233-258
The sampling variance of a T-year flood when estimated using a curve-fitting method results from the errors in hydrologic observations, plotting positions, and model-fitting. This paper develops a method to quantify the contribution of plotting positions to the sampling variance of the T-year flood magnitude. Application of the method to 150 flood-flow data sets of 41 rivers in the People's Republic of China show that the errors due to plotting positions contribute more to the sampling variance than others. 相似文献