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1.
应用有限区域波数-功率谱和滞后线性回归统计方法，对比分析1979—2004年热带气旋（TC）活动强、弱年亚洲-西太平洋区域（AWP）夏半年大气季节内振荡（ISO）的传播特征及海气相互作用过程。分析结果表明：在整个AWP和西太平洋区域都存在TC强年ISO东传特征更显著的特征，ISO对流传播在纬向上伸展更偏东，强年沿赤道东传20～60 d周期波动更强，西太平洋区域是传播特征强弱年区别较显著的区域，与TC活动密切联系；TC强、弱年ISO过程中海气相互作用过程相同，海洋和大气间的能量交换对维持ISO西北传播时起作用；TC强年的海气相互作用比弱年更加强烈，尤其是对流凝结潜热的释放在强年比弱年强，这可能是导致TC强、弱年ISO特征区别的原因之一。 相似文献
2.
Using the daily average outgoing longwave radiation and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in boreal summer (Mays to Octobers) from 1979 to 2007, the propagating characteristics of convection intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) in the Asian-western Pacific (AWP) region and the relationship between tropical synoptic waves and ISOs are examined by means of finite-domain wavenumber-frequency energy spectrum analysis and lagged linear regression technique. The results are shown as follows. (1) The AWP ISOs propagate both eastward and westward, showing seasonality and regionality. The ISOs propagate eastward with a period of 30 to 60 days over equatorial regions in the whole AWP region, while the westward propagation occurs over 10 to 20? N western Pacific or in the late summers (August, September and October) with periods of 20 to 40 days. The ISOs eastward propagation mainly occurs in primary summers while the westward propagation enhances in late summers. (2) Deep ISO convections associate with westerly and cyclonic circulation anomalies that first form in the Indian Ocean, propagate eastward to the dateline in the Pacific and then turn northwestward. The ISOs convections show northwestward propagating characteristics in the western North Pacific. (3) The ISOs link with the tropical synoptic waves closely. Both convection signals, though with different spatio-temporal scale, enhance simutaneously in the northwestern Pacific, and the ISOs facilitate the forming of a cluster of tropical cyclones (TCs), while a cluster of TCs convection becomes one portion of the northwestward ISOs. 相似文献
3.
STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALLS AND PASSING THROUGH LAKES IN CHINA 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
王晓芳 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2009,15(1):63-67
By using the data of 1949 – 2001 (53 years) of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Yearbooks, statistical
analyses are performed to study the climatic features of TCs making landfall and then passing through
lakes (hereafter referred to as “L-TCs”) in China. Results show that L-TCs can sustain a long time over
land and the intensity is very strong during the course of landfall. Lakes can noticeably slow down the
reduction of TC intensity, with the minimum pressure mostly maintained or decreased and the maximum
velocity increased. The middle reach of the Yangtze River has the biggest TC dissipating rate as compared
with the other areas where the TC is active. 相似文献
4.
This paper investigates the low-frequency modulation of the Atlantic warm pool (AWP) by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Consistent with previous study, it shows that the time series of AWP area varies in phase with the AMO on multidecadal timescales. However, the variability of AWP area is out of phase with the AMO: A small (large) variance of AWP area is associated with the AMO warm (cold) phase. In addition, the modulation of AWP area variability by the AMO has a large seasonality, with a small (large) modulation in summer (fall). The modulation of the annual AWP area variability is primarily determined by the low frequency changes in the Pacific ENSO and the local heat flux feedback, and countered by the low frequency changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation and the ocean mixed layer depth. The local heat flux feedback and mixed layer depth change also play important roles in the AMO-modulated seasonality of the AWP area variability. 相似文献
5.
The Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) region, which is comprised of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and parts of the northwestern tropical Atlantic Ocean, is one of the most poorly observed parts of the global oceans. This study compares three ocean reanalyses, namely the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of NCEP, and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) for its AWP variation. The surface temperature in these ocean reanalyses is also compared with that from the Extended Range SST version 3 and Optimally Interpolated SST version 2 SST analyses. In addition we also compare three atmospheric reanalyses: NCEP-NCAR (R1), NCEP-DOE (R2), and CFSR for the associated atmospheric variability with the AWP. The comparison shows that there are important differences in the climatology of the AWP and its interannual variations. There are considerable differences in the subsurface ocean manifestation of the AWP with SODA (CFSR) showing the least (largest) modulation of the subsurface ocean temperatures. The remote teleconnections with the tropical Indian Ocean are also different across the reanalyses. However, all three oceanic reanalyses consistently show the absence of any teleconnection with the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The influence of the AWP on the tropospheric temperature anomalies last for up to a one season lead and it is found to be relatively weak in R1 reanalyses. A simplified SST anomaly equation initially derived for diagnosing El Niño Southern Oscillation variability is adapted for the AWP variations in this study. The analysis of this equation reveals that the main contribution of the SST variation in the AWP region is from the variability of the net heat flux. All three reanalyses consistently show that the role of the ocean advective terms, including that associated with upwelling in the AWP region, is comparatively much smaller. The covariance of the SST tendency in the AWP with the net heat flux is large, with significant contributions from the variations of the surface shortwave and longwave fluxes. 相似文献
6.
应用1949—2016年台风资料和中国地面逐日降水资料,针对中国内陆西部地区,通过对较长样本资料的统计分析,研究台风活动及其在台风登陆背景下,中国西部年、夏半年和盛夏平均降水特征。研究得到:①67年间登陆中国大陆的台风年平均9.09个,6—10月是台风活跃期,登陆台风最早在4月,最晚在12月,8月登陆台风频率最高。②台风活动对宁夏全省、陕西大部、四川盆地、甘肃中东部和青海大部降水影响明显,台风活动多寡与该地区降水多寡总体成正相关。新疆和西藏降水受台风影响极小,贵州、重庆降水与台风活动呈相反情况,台风活动对云南降水影响不明显。③台风活动与中国西部部分地区降水呈正相关特征,其年均降水最明显,其次是6—10月平均降水。此项研究首次聚焦在远距离台风与中国西部降水特征上,将有助于系统全面地认识台风活动特征、登陆台风与中国西部降水的关系以及中国西部降水机理。 相似文献
7.
State-of-the-art coupled global climate models are evaluated for their simulation of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP). Historical runs from 17 coupled climate models included in the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) serve as the basis for this model evaluation study. The model simulations are directly compared to observations and reanalysis data to evaluate the climatological features and variability of the AWP within each individual model. Results reveal that a select number of models—namely the GISS-E2-R, CSIRO-Mk3.6, and MPI-ESM-LR—are successful at resolving an appropriately sized AWP with some reasonable climatological features. However, these three models exhibit an erroneously broad seasonal peak of the AWP, and its variability is significantly underestimated. Furthermore, all of the CMIP5 models exhibit a significant cold bias across the tropical Atlantic basin, which hinders their ability to accurately resolve the AWP. 相似文献
8.
Based on the CMA tropical cyclone(TC) best track data as well as the reanalysis datasets from the NCEP/NCAR and NOAA, the variation characteristics of TC number from 1949 to 2013 over the western North Pacific(including the South China Sea) are examined. Notably, the time series of TC number exhibits a significant abrupt change from more to less around 1995. Comparative analysis indicates that the environmental factors necessary to TC formation also change significantly around the mid-1990 s. After 1995, accompanying with anomalous warm sea surface temperature(SST) in western equatorial Pacific, a La Nia-like pattern in tropical Pacific appears obviously. However,compared with the period before 1995, the vertical upward movement decreases, vertical shear of tropospheric zonal wind increases, and sea level pressure(SLP) rises, all of which are unfavorable to TC formation and work together to make TC number reduce markedly after 1995. Furthermore, when the typical interannual more and less TCs years are selected in the two separate stages before and after 1995, the relative importance of oceanic and atmospheric environments in interannual TC generation is also investigated respectively. The results imply that the SST over the tropical Pacific exerts relatively important influence on TC formation before 1995 whereas the atmospheric circulation plays a more prominent role in the generation of TC after 1995. 相似文献
9.
10.
DECADAL CHANGES IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES ASSOCIATED WITH MADDEN–JULIAN OSCILLATION
This study focuses on the decadal variability of tropical cyclones (TC) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) and how these changes are related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). It was done with the help of the Real-time Multivariate MJO index from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, TC data from the Joint Typhoon Warming Center best track datasets, and daily and monthly datasets from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis center. The results show that the TC frequency in the WNP exhibited a statistically significant decrease during 1998–2010 compared to during 1979–1997. The decrease in TC frequency in the WNP mainly occurred during MJO active phases (i.e., phases 4, 5, 6, and 7). Further investigation of the climate background and the propagation differences of the MJO between 1979–1997 and 1998–2010 was performed. The La Ni?a-like tropical sea surface temperature cooling caused stronger Walker circulation and thus induced unfavorable atmosphere conditions for WNP TC genesis including a low-level easterly anomaly, a negative relative vorticity anomaly, an increase in sea-level pressure, and stronger vertical wind shear. Moreover, shortening of the MJO cycle, decline in the duration of the active phases in the WNP, and easterly anomaly and shrinkage of the convection area during MJO active phases may also partly explain the decadal variation of TC. 相似文献
11.
热带气旋每年对我国东南沿海地区造成很大的经济损失和人员伤亡。为了解登陆中国热带气旋的强度、位置和生成频率等特征,基于1949—2018年西北太平洋热带气旋数据,采用分位数回归的方法分析了登陆中国热带气旋活动年际变化特征规律。结果发现:登陆中国热带气旋活动年际变化特征受ENSO事件的影响,El Ni?o年、La Ni?a年和正常年登陆中国热带气旋的最大风速、最长生命期和生成位置的年际变化规律存在较大差异,且这种差异程度和热带气旋强度有关;此外,在不同的分位数下登陆中国热带气旋活动特征的年际变化趋势系数并不相同。研究结果可以为我国的东南沿海热带气旋数据分析和趋势预测提供有效的参考。 相似文献
12.
西北太平洋热带气旋在ENSO发展和衰减年的路径变化 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文运用有限混合模型算法对1979~2015年夏、秋季（6~11月）中国气象局（CMA）上海台风研究所（STI）的最佳路径数据集热带气旋（TC）路径进行聚类,将其路径分为七类,分别为第一类（西太西移型）、第二类（南海西移型）、第三类（沿海转折型）、第四类（低纬转折型）、第五类（洋面转折型）、第六类（近海转折型）、第七类（日本海转折型）;并利用S-EOF（季节EOF,Seasonal Empirical Orthogonal Function）方法确定ENSO四个位相（El Ni?o发展年、El Ni?o衰减年、La Ni?a发展年、La Ni?a衰减年）,分析在不同ENSO位相下TC路径的年际变化以及相应的流场,得到一些有意义的结论:El Ni?o发展年,TC在西北太平洋东南海域活动频繁,以第六类（近海转折型）路径为主;El Ni?o衰减年以第二类（南海西移型）路径居多,第七类（日本海转折型）路径也较为活跃;La Ni?a发展年,TC集中在西北象限海域,以第七类（日本海转折型）路径为主;La Ni?a衰减年,TC源地多位于我国沿海地区与台湾岛附近洋面上,以第三类（沿海转折型）路径为主。 相似文献
13.
采用1949—2016年7—8月美国国家环境预报中心及大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析资料与中国气象局(CMA)上海台风所整编的热带气旋最佳路径数据集,研究大气环状模(Circumglobal Teleconnection,CGT)与中国大陆地区登陆热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)频数气候变化的关系。定义200 hPa经向风经验正交展开(EOF)的第一模态为CGT,其时间系数为环状模指数(Circumgolbal Teleconnection Index,CGTI)。CGT在北半球中纬度地区有5个异常中心,CGTI在1949—2016年呈明显的下降趋势,且存在一个2~3 a的周期振荡。CGT与大尺度环流异常存在密切的联系。研究表明:CGTI与中国大陆登陆TC频数气候变率具有显著的正相关,即CGTI表现为正异常时,登陆中国大陆的TC频数增加,反之减少。当CGT表现为正位相时,东亚副热带西风急流增强,急流南侧的反气旋切变增强,使TC登陆过程的活动区域200 hPa的辐散增强,此外,对流层高层Rossby波能量向南传播增强,形成波通量辐合,导致东风异常,产生了东风异常的引导气流和纬向风垂直切变,东风切变使得切变减小,增加了TC登陆中国大陆的可能性。 相似文献
14.
影响我国热带气旋活动的气候特征及其与太平洋海温的关系 总被引：23，自引：14，他引：23
利用1956~2000年的热带气旋(简称TC,下同)资料对影响我国TC活动的气候特征进行了初步的统计分析,结果发现影响我国的TC活动具有明显的阶段性特征,1960年代影响我国的TC数明显偏少,而后进入偏多期,1990年代又相对偏少。影响我国的TC强度多集中于980~999 hPa,华东的闽、浙一带TC登陆比华南晚,但强度较大。在此基础上通过对影响我国的TC年个数与太平洋海温场进行相关分析,发现两个相关较密切的区域: 西太平洋暖池(120~150 E, 10~20 N)正相关区、赤道中东太平洋(180 ~90 W, 10 S~5 N)负相关区,这两个相关区具有较好的持续性。进一步分析影响我国的TC在El Ni駉年与La Ni馻年的气候特征发现,El Ni駉年影响我国的TC数较少,但强度较大,La Ni馻年则相反,影响我国TC多年和少年对应的太平洋海温距平分布形势分别与La Nia年和El Nio年的海温距平分布形势类似。 相似文献
15.
Using Joint Warning Typhoon Center （JTWC） best track data during the period 1948-2010, decadal and interdecadal changes of annual category 4 and 5 tropical cyclone （TC） frequency in the western North Pacific basin were examined. By allowing all of the observed TCs in the JTWC dataset to move along the observed TC tracks in a TC intensity model, the annual category 4 and 5 TC frequency was simulated. The results agreed well with observations when the TC intensity prior to 1973 was adjusted based on time-dependent biases due to changes in measurement and reporting practices. The simulated and adjusted time series showed significant decadal （12-18 years） variability, while the interdecadal （18-32 years） variability was found to be statistically insignificant. Numerical simulations indicated that changes in TC tracks are the most important factor for the decadal variability in the category 4 and 5 TC frequency in the western North Pacific basin, while a combined effect of changes in SST and vertical wind shear also contributes to the decadal variability. Further analysis suggested that the active phase of category 4 and 5 TCs is closely associated with an eastward shift in the TC formation locations, which allows more TCs to follow a longer journey, favoring the development of category 4 and 5 TCs. The active phase corresponds with the SST warming over the tropical central and eastern Pacific and the eastward extension of the monsoon trough, thus leading to the eastward shift in TC formation locations. 相似文献
16.
In this paper, a study on the variation of annual frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) and its relation with SST, Southern Oscillation index, sunspot relative number and number of days for specific circulation patterns was made by using 1884-1988 data of annual frequency for Northwest Pacific TC occurrence, which had been corrected to tendencies.Preliminary results indicated that in the variation of annual TC frequency there exist obvious p.6riods of 21, 31, 15 and 6 years and sustaining periods lasting 12 years in average.Well-defined processes of inflexion were observed in 1931, 1959 and 1977 over the past hundred years.The results also suggested insignificant statistic tendency of annual TC frequency increasing (decreasing) in winter/spring (summer/autumn )in the El Nino years.When the stratosphere was in the zonally westerly phase, the northern zonal circulation would abnormally develop and solar activity would enhance to favour the generation and development of TC. 相似文献
17.
风廓线仪与气球测风资料的对比分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用风廓线仪和气球同步探测风场资料对比,分析了风廓线仪探测风场资料的可靠性。结果表明：在稳定天气过程中,由于风廓线仪的探测盲区和地物杂波的影响,自地面至高空200m范围内,廓线仪探测的风向、风速与气球探测的风向风速值有一定偏差,200m高度以上风廓线仪和气球探空所测得的风场廓线具有很好的相关性;在复杂天气过程中风场廓线形状出现较大偏差,主要原因是由于气球探空资料在各高度层之间的整体连续性方面存在明显不足,而风廓线仪的观测资料无论在各高度层之间还是整体连续性方面都明显好于气球探空。这与在较高海拔地区,气球观测期间的大气局部不稳定有关。由于气球在经过某高度层时的取值明显受到当时大气层局部小湍流活动或者较强的下沉或上升气流影响,使气球经过该点时的位移与其相邻两点之间出现明显的飘逸,从而造成气球在某个高度范围内的风资料观测值出现较大偏离。但由于探空气球的资料不连续,无法准确判断气流扰动情况,而风廓线仪获取的不同高度上的风资料是10min内的平均观测值,一般不受小范围的空气扰动而出现较大偏离,另外,风廓线仪的观测是连续的,每组观测值之间只存在10min的时间差,通过对前后几组数据的对比分析,可以明显看出当时气流的扰动情况。因此,风廓线仪探测在资料的连续性和分析气流扰动情况,尤其是大尺度湍流活动方面更有探空气球不可替代的作用,风廓线仪观测资料的可靠性具有良好的应用价值。 相似文献
18.
19.
利用TOVS资料分析了2000年几个热带气旋的结构,发现与经典概念模型所描述的结构有一定的差异,主要表现在:(1)在水平结构上,非对称结构呈多样性,高度场的低层低值中心(或高层高值中心)与温度场的高值中心并不一定重合;(2)在垂直结构上,高度场的低层低值距平与高层高值距平的配置也呈多样性,特别是存在上、下层距平中心倾斜,或高层只是处于高压区的边缘,不存在明显的高值距平中心与热带气旋相对应.还参照TOVS中的热带气旋结构,进行了修订热带气旋数值预报模式系统中人造台风模型(台风BOGUS)结构的研究,发现修订后的台风BOGUS 能够更好地与环境场协调,并且能对热带气旋的路径预报取得较好的效果.这一方面说明了台风BOGUS的结构对其路径预报有较大的影响,另一方面也说明利用TOVS资料中的热带气旋结构能改善热带气旋路径预报.这也为台风BOGUS的修订和发展提供了依据. 相似文献
20.
We statistically analyze the tropical typhoon forming in the South China Sea and use TC (Tropical
Cyclone) for short in the following) by typhoon yearbook. The typhoon quantity is very different in different
months and years. TC appears in all months except March, and the most TC quantity in a year is 11, the least is 1
and 6.2 on average. The most TC quantity in a month is 5 and the least is 0. TC lands most in August and no TC
lands on Chinese continent from December to the following April. The primary landing area is between Shantou
and Hainan Island. The sustaining period of TC is usually between 4 days to 7days, and the longest is 19 days.
Only 15% of the TC forming in the South China Sea can intensify to typhoon, and they all form in the ocean area
deeper than 150m. The South China Sea is the ocean area over which the TC occurs frequently. 相似文献