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1.
The possibility ofassessing changes in river runofftill 2100 for a number oflarge river basins of the world for a wide range of natural conditions is investigated. The assessment is based on the SWAP (Soil Water–Atmosphere–Plants) model using meteorological data as inputs which were simulated with different general atmosphere–ocean circulation models in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. The possible climatic changes in annual runoff for some rivers by the end of the 21st century are compared with the natural interannual variability of river runoff caused by weather noise.  相似文献   

2.
Presented is a method of studying possible climate-driven changes of river runoff characteristics, according to which the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are used for computing the climate system impact, whereas the response of a watershed to given disturbance is estimated using the model of runoff formation in a river basin. The study is carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin. Estimates of possible changes (relative to the reference period) by the middle and late 21st century of such water regime characteristics as mean annual and maximum water discharge, as well as mean discharge values for the spring, summer-fall and winter seasons, are presented.  相似文献   

3.
利用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中5个气候模式在3种典型浓度路径(RCPs)下的预估结果驱动SWAT水文模型,预估了21世纪气候变化对长江上游年径流量、季节分配以及极端径流的影响。结果表明：预估的长江上游平均气温呈显著上升趋势,21世纪末较当前(1986—2005年)升高1.5~5.5℃,降水总体呈增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前气候平均值,21世纪末相对于当前增加5%~15%。流域内气候变化存在明显空间差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域气温升高和降水增加幅度均大于流域平均值。预估的长江上游年径流量及各月平均径流均有增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前多年平均值,21世纪中期增加4%~8%,21世纪末增加10%~15%。预估的径流年内分布的均匀性有所增加,但年际变化明显增大,极端旱涝事件的频率和强度明显增加。预估的各子流域径流变化对气候变化的响应也存在差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域年径流量、年际变化和年内分布变化小,对气候变化的响应表现为低敏感;嘉陵江流域、乌江流域和长江上游干流径流增加幅度大,同时极端丰枯出现的频率和程度增加显著,是气候变化响应的敏感区域。  相似文献   

4.
Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Millions of people in the geopolitically important region of Central Asia depend on water from snow- and glacier-melt driven international rivers, most of all the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The riparian countries of these rivers have experienced recurring water allocation conflicts ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Will climate change exacerbate water stress and thus conflicts? We have developed a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya to quantify impacts and show that climatic changes are likely to have consequences on runoff seasonality due to earlier snow-melt. This will increase water stress in unregulated catchments because less water will be available for irrigation in the summer months. Threats from geohazards, above all glacier lake outbursts, are likely to increase as well. The area at highest risk is the densely populated, agriculturally productive, and politically unstable Fergana Valley. Targeted infrastructural developments will be required in the region. If the current mismanagement of water and energy resources can be replaced with more effective resource allocation mechanisms through the strengthening of transboundary institutions, Central Asia will be able to successfully address these future climate-related challenges.  相似文献   

5.
The variations in average annual surface air temperature, precipitation, and runoff in the Selenga River basin (within Russia) are analyzed. It is demonstrated that the considerable increase in average annual temperature of surface air layers occurred in the 1980s-1990s. The decrease in peak water discharge in the rivers and the increase in the frequency of low-water periods were revealed in the forest-steppe and steppe zones of the Selenga River basin in 2001-2010. In the southwestern mountain regions (the Dzhida River basin) the river runoff increased during that period.  相似文献   

6.
This paper examines the impacts of climate change on various forms of water resources and on some critical water management issues. The study area is the Aliakmon river basin including three subbasins of hydrological interest located in northern Greece. A monthly conceptual water balance model was calibrated for each subbasin separately, using historical hydrometeorological data. This model was applied to estimate runoff values at the outlet of each subbasin under different climate change scenarios. Two equilibrium scenarios (UKHI, CCC) referring to years 2020, 2050 and 2100 and one transient scenario (UKTR) referring to years 2032 and 2080 were implied. It was found that reduction of the mean annual runoff and mean winter runoff values, as well as serious reduction of the summer runoff values would occur in all cases and basins. However, the runoff values for November, December and January were increased, whereas the spring runoff values were decreased, leading to a shifting of the wet period towards December and severe prolongation of the dry period. Moreover, the results indicate that all subbasins exhibit almost the same behavior under the different climate change scenarios, while the equilibrium scenarios (UKHI, CCC) seem to give more reasonable and consistent results than the transient scenario (UKTR). Finally, the negative effects of the climatically induced changes on the hydroelectric production and the water use for agricultural purposes in the study basin were assessed.  相似文献   

7.
气候变化条件下雅砻江流域未来径流变化趋势研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
雅砻江为我国重要的水电基地,未来气候变化条件下流域径流变化将直接影响雅砻江梯级水库群运行安全和发电调度,因此研究气候变化对雅砻江流域径流的影响十分必要。首先建立了流域月尺度的SWAT模型,然后使用统计降尺度模型（SDSM）模拟未来2006—2100年流域内各站点的气象数据,最后使用流域SWAT模型对未来2006—2100年月径流进行模拟。结果表明,未来雅砻江流域径流呈上升趋势,且增幅随着辐射强迫的增加同步增大,RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5这3种典型浓度路径下年平均径流增幅分别为8.9%、12.5%、16.7%,且2020S（2006—2035年)、2050S（2036—2065年)、2080S（2066—2100年）这3个时期年径流量呈现不同的变化趋势,其中RCP2.6浓度路径下为先逐步增加达到峰值后略有减少,RCP4.5浓度路径下为先逐步增加达到峰值后趋于稳定,RCP8.5浓度路径下为持续增加。流域径流年内分配方面,3种典型浓度路径下汛期径流占全年比例在2020S、2050S、2080S这3个时期均为先降后升趋势,整个预测期总体为降低趋势,RCP2.6、RCP4.5及RCP8.5这3种浓度路径下整个预测期的均值分别由基准期的75.9%降低为72.9%、72.0%、71.2%。径流增加会对流域洪水特性产生较大影响,为此应该修正流域设计洪水计算结果和调整防洪调度方案,以降低雅砻江流域梯级水库群因气候变化而产生的运行风险,并提高发电调度效率。  相似文献   

8.
水文模式DHSVM与区域气候模式RegCM2/China嵌套模拟试验   总被引：17，自引：4，他引：17  
本研究在改进水文 -土壤 -植被模式DHSVM ,用气候观测资料驱动DHSVM进行模拟试验的基础上 ,建立了区域气候模式RegCM2 /China与水文模式DHSVM的嵌套系统 ,将区域气候模式对中国和东亚地区控制试验 (目前气候情景 )和敏感性试验 (未来 2×CO2 气候情景 )结果用双线性插值方法降尺度 (downscaling)到滦河、桑干河流域的 8个气象站点 ,然后再用数字高程模式DEM插值到DHSVM的细网格点 ,驱动水文模式进行嵌套模拟试验。试验结果表明 ,滦河、桑干河流域在未来大气中CO2 浓度加倍情况下 ,地面气温呈一致的增加趋势 ,年平均气温增加2 .8℃ ;两流域未来降水也呈增加趋势 ,滦河、桑干河流域年降水量分别增加 6mm和 4 6mm ;两流域未来蒸发量有所增加 ,年均蒸发量增加 2 9mm ;未来滦河流域年径流深减少 2 7mm ,流量减少 14 .72× 10 8m3 ,桑干河流域径流深增加 2 6mm ,流量增加 12 .2 2× 10 8m3 ,两流域合计 ,流量减少 2 .5× 10 8m3 ;未来滦河、桑干河流域径流深趋向一致 ,分别为 74和 71mm ,约为全国目前平均径流深 2 84mm的 1/ 4。可见 ,两流域未来总体上仍呈现暖干化趋势。本研究发展的嵌套模式系统具有一定的预测能力 ,而且通过参数移植 ,可应用于中国其他流域  相似文献   

9.
对5组区域气候模式集合模拟的中国径流深进行评估,并且预估了温室气体高排放情景RCP8.5下的未来变化。结果表明：多区域气候模式集合结果能够基本模拟出径流深的观测特征,对年径流深的空间分布特征模拟较好,但量值存在一定的系统偏差,特别是黄河中游、海河和松辽河存在明显的正偏差,且对全国9个流域片中东南、西南和西北诸河的年内分配总体模拟效果相对较差。未来到21世纪末,全国平均年径流深在各个时段都以增加为主,增加幅度多在5%以内。未来变化存在明显的空间差异,大致表现为“北增南减”的分布特征,但不会改变中国水资源南多北少的空间格局;其中,黄河、西南和西北诸河流域片呈显著的增加趋势,淮河、长江和东南诸河流域片呈现显著的减少趋势,海河、松辽和珠江流域的变化趋势不显著。21世纪末期各地的变化多在±30%以内,且多模式预估的正负变化一致性较高。到21世纪末期,各流域片平均的径流深季节分配总体特征没有明显变化,径流深的最大月份基本维持不变,分配比例的数值有±2%以内的变化,且各季节的增减变化存在明显流域间差异。  相似文献   

10.
This paper investigates how using different regional climate model (RCM) simulations affects climate change impacts on hydrology in northern Europe using an offline hydrological model. Climate change scenarios from an ensemble of seven RCMs, two global climate models (GCMs), two global emissions scenarios and two RCMs of varying resolution were used. A total of 15 climate change simulations were included in studies on the Lule River basin in Northern Sweden. Two different approaches to transfer climate change from the RCMs to hydrological models were tested. A rudimentary estimate of change in hydropower potential on the Lule River due to climate change was also made. The results indicate an overall increase in river flow, earlier spring peak flows and an increase in hydropower potential. The two approaches for transferring the signal of climate change to the hydrological impacts model gave similar mean results, but considerably different seasonal dynamics, a result that is highly relevant for other types of climate change impacts studies.  相似文献   

11.
21世纪珠江流域水文过程对气候变化的响应   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
应用HBV-D水文模型和多个气候模式预估了不同温室气体排放情景下珠江主干流西江的径流过程,分析了21世纪水资源量和洪水频率的变化。结果表明：2050年后年降水量和年径流量较基准期（1961—1990年）明显增加;流域平均的月降水量和径流量在5—10月间均呈增加趋势,12月至次年2月呈减少趋势;年最大1 d和7 d洪量逐渐增加,重现期逐渐缩短。2030年前枯水期径流增加有望缓解枯水期用水压力,而2050年之后丰水期径流量以及洪水强度、发生频率的增加将给珠江流域防汛抗洪带来更大压力,在制订气候变化对流域水资源影响适应性对策时应考虑这两方面的影响。  相似文献   

12.
以南水北调中线工程典型流域汉江上游流域和滦河流域为研究对象,采用敏感性分析法、降水?径流双累积曲线法、累积量斜率变化率比较法定量评估了气候波动和人类活动对流域径流变化的影响。结果表明：汉江上游流域和滦河流域变异Ⅰ/Ⅱ期年均径流深相对于基准期分别减少了29.5% / 19.1%和49.8% / 70.0%;对于汉江上游流域,1991-1999年（变异Ⅰ期）气候波动是径流减少的主要影响因素,2000-2008年（变异Ⅱ期）人类活动则是径流减少的主要影响因素,且人类活动对汉江上游流域径流减少的影响逐步增加;对于滦河流域,1980-2010年（变异Ⅰ/Ⅱ期）人类活动一直是径流减少的主要影响因素,且气候波动和人类活动对径流减少的影响贡献率基本保持不变。  相似文献   

13.
A global atmospheric model is used to calculate the monthly river flow for nine of the world's major high latitude rivers for the present climate and for a doubled CO2 climate. The model has a horizontal resolution of 4° × 5°, but the model's runoff from each grid box is quartered and added to the appropriate river drainage basin on a 2° × 2.5° resolution. A routing scheme is used to move runoff from a grid box to its neighboring downstream grid box and ultimately to the mouth of the river. In a model simulation in which atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled, mean annual precipitation and river flow increase for all of these rivers, increased outflow at the river mouths begins earlier in the spring, and the maximum outflow occurs approximately one month sooner due to an earlier snow melt season. In the doubled CO2 climate, snow mass decreases for the Yukon and Mackenzie rivers in North America and for rivers in northwestern Asia, but snow mass increases for rivers in northeastern Asia.  相似文献   

14.
Long-term changes in peak spring runoff and daily minimum winter and summer-autumn runoff in the Volga River basin are analyzed based on observational data from 94 gaging stations. It is revealed that climate changes in the basin during the period from the late 1970s till the middle of the 1980s led to the significant increase in minimum discharge, but maximum runoff changed ambiguously. The regions with the disturbed uniformity of the series of extreme values of river runoff are identified. Changes in the values of high runoff, above the 10% probability, and low runoff, below the 90% probability, are analyzed for current climate conditions. Under nonstationary conditions, it is recommended to assess the probability characteristics of extreme runoff with compound distribution curves or based on the Bayesian approach.  相似文献   

15.
根据内蒙古黄河流域内72个国家气象站观测的1961—2005年和区域气候模式CCLM模拟的1961—2100年的气温和降水数据,采用BP人工神经网络模型,预估分析3种RCP情景下头道拐水文站2011—2100年流量变化,评估未来气候变化对流域水资源的可能影响。结果表明:①2011—2100年内蒙古黄河流域气温升高,降水变化不明显,年平均流量呈减少趋势,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景分别减少3.6%、2.7%和23.4%。②未来春季流量以增加为主;夏季在不同情景的变化趋势不一致;秋季在21世纪50年代前以增加为主,之后以减少为主;冬季则以减少为主。③未来流域可利用水资源呈减少趋势,尤其夏季水资源的供需矛盾加剧,以及径流季节分配发生变化,可能产生更大的春季径流。  相似文献   

16.
Brazilian strategic interest in the Madeira River basin, one of the most important of the southern Amazon tributaries, includes the development of hydropower to satisfy the country’s growing energy needs and new waterways to boost regional trade and economic development. Because of evidences that climate change impacts the hydrological regime of rivers, the aim of this study was to assess how global climate change and regional land cover change caused by deforestation could affect the river’s hydrological regime. To achieve this goal, we calibrated a large-scale hydrological model for the period from 1970–1990 and analyzed the ability of the model to simulate the present hydrological regime when climate model simulations were used as input. Climate change projections produced by climate models were used in the hydrological model to generate scenarios with and without regional land-use and land-cover changes induced by forest conversion to pasture for the period from 2011–2099. Although results show variability among models, consensus scenarios indicated a decrease in the low-flow regime. When the simulations included forest conversion to pasture, climate change impacts on low flows were reduced in the upper basin, while, in the lower basin, discharges were affected along the whole year due to the more vigorous land-use conversion in the Brazilian region of the basin.  相似文献   

17.
利用长江上游通天河流域直门达水文站1957～2001年各月平均径流量资料,对长江水系通天河的径流量变化规律及与气候要素的关系进行了分析.结果表明,通天河月平均流量具有很好的持续性,尤其是7～12月,其显著落后自相关可达4～6个月以上;近45年来,通天河流量经历了小-大-小的演变过程,期间出现过径流量的多次转折,其中1967年由大变小,径流量持续减小直到1979年,长达11年;1979年径流量由小变大,直到1989年达到历史(有记录以来)最大值,持续时间长达10年;1990年代径流量持续减小;从1998年开始,径流量又开始表现出增大趋势;年径流量表现出较明显的准2年短周期和7.5及12.3年的长周期变化;年平均径流量与同期6～9月降水存在显著的正相关关系,与气温关系不显著.对径流量丰枯划分的标准不同,进行径流量转移概率的预报结果也不同.  相似文献   

18.
辽河流域属于气候变暖较为显著区域,增温幅度比全球和全国的增温幅度都要高。同时辽河流域也是水资源较为匮乏且需求量大的地区,因此气候变化对水资源影响问题也更值得关注。基于长期历史观测气象水文数据和未来不同情景下气候变化预估资料,建立评估气候变化与径流量的关系,预估未来气候变化对径流量的可能影响,为辽河流域应对气候变化决策提供科学依据。结果表明:1961—2020年,辽河流域气温为持续上升趋势,降水没有明显的增减趋势,但存在阶段性变化;辽河流域降水量与径流量有较好的相关关系,具有较为一致的长期变化趋势与特征,年降水量与径流量相关数达到0.6以上。日降水量与径流量相关分析表明,降水发生后次日且为大雨降水等级(即日降水量≥25 mm)时,两者相关系数可高达0.85;敏感性试验和模式模拟试验表明,径流量对气候变化有明显的响应,降水增加(减少)、气温降低(升高),则径流量增加(减少);在未来RCP8.5排放情景下气温升高趋势最为明显,未来径流量也为显著增加趋势;RCP2.6排放情景下气温增加的幅度最小,未来径流量也表现为无明显增减趋势;RCP4.5情景下,气温增加的幅度居中,未来径流量则为减少趋势。  相似文献   

19.
The streamflow over the Yellow River basin is simulated using the PRECIS （Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies） regional climate model driven by 15-year （1979-1993） ECMWF reanalysis data as the initial and lateral boundary conditions and an off-line large-scale routing model （LRM）. The LRM uses physical catchment and river channel information and allows streamflow to be predicted for large continental rivers with a 1°×1° spatial resolution. The results show that the PRECIS model can reproduce the general southeast to northwest gradient distribution of the precipitation over the Yellow River basin, The PRECIS- LRM model combination has the capability to simulate the seasonal and annual streamflow over the Yellow River basin. The simulated streamflow is generally coincident with the naturalized streamflow both in timing and in magnitude.  相似文献   

20.
An ensemble of seven climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) was used to examine uncertainty in simulated runoff changes from a base period (1971–2000) to a future period (2041–2070) for the Churchill River basin, Labrador, Canada. Three approximations for mean annual runoff from each ensemble member were included in the analysis: (i) atmospheric moisture convergence, (ii) the balance between precipitation and evaporation, and (iii) instantaneous runoff output from respective land-surface schemes. Using data imputation (i.e., reconstruction) and variance decomposition it was found that choice of regional climate model (RCM) made the greatest contribution to uncertainty in the climate change signal, whereas the boundary forcing of a general circulation model (GCM) played a smaller, though non-negligible, role. It was also found that choice of runoff approximation made a substantial contribution to uncertainty, falling between the contribution from RCM and GCM choice. The NARCCAP output and imputed data were used to calculate mean and median annual changes and results were presented via probability distribution functions to facilitate decision making. Mean and median increases in runoff for the basin were found to be 11.2% and 8.9%, respectively.  相似文献   

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