共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Wavelet regression model as an alternative to neural networks for monthly streamflow forecasting 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Özgür Kişi 《水文研究》2009,23(25):3583-3597
The accuracy of the wavelet regression (WR) model in monthly streamflow forecasting is investigated in the study. The WR model is improved combining the two methods—the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) model and the linear regression (LR) model—for 1‐month‐ahead streamflow forecasting. In the first part of the study, the results of the WR model are compared with those of the single LR model. Monthly flow data from two stations, Gerdelli Station on Canakdere River and Isakoy Station on Goksudere River, in Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey are used in the study. The comparison results reveal that the WR model could increase the forecast accuracy of the LR model. In the second part of the study, the accuracy of the WR model is compared with those of the artificial neural networks (ANN) and auto‐regressive (AR) models. On the basis of the results, the WR is found to be better than the ANN and AR models in monthly streamflow forecasting. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The paper presents the development of a lumped conceptual rainfall‐runoff model [Transformation of rainfall to runoff, Variability across timescales and Model parsimonization (TVM)] and a series of tests on various levels of model structure at different time resolutions. It is applied to the Bradford catchment in the United Kingdom. The TVM model is developed with a flexible structure through various relationships in each module that can be modified depending on the study catchments. Adopting the downward approach, parsimonious models are developed to examine at what level of complexity the model is able to capture runoff variability. The approach aims to compromise between parsimonious and complex alternatives in model development. This study shows that model structure requires data at different aggregation levels of timescales depending on its complexity. It reveals that the absence of the infiltration excess strongly affected all models. The analysis shows that the time resolution of hourly downwards must be used for the study catchment. The investigation of model complexity indicates that the combination of the most complicated model structure and timescale of quarter‐hourly is adequate to capture the catchment runoff characteristics. The downward approach in the TVM model helps to gain a deeper understanding of water balance and runoff process in the study catchment. The approach could be applicable to other catchments to obtain parsimonious models. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Lotte de Vugt Thomas Zieher Barbara Schneider-Muntau Mateo Moreno Stefan Steger Martin Rutzinger 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2024,49(4):1330-1347
The development of better, more reliable and more efficient susceptibility assessments for shallow landslides is becoming increasingly important. Physically based models are well-suited for this, due to their high predictive capability. However, their demands for large, high-resolution and detailed input datasets make them very time-consuming and costly methods. This study investigates if a spatially transferable model calibration can be created with the use of parameter ensembles and with this alleviate the time-consuming calibration process of these methods. To investigate this, the study compares the calibration of the model TRIGRS in two different study areas. The first study area was taken from a previous study where the dynamic physically based model TRIGRS was calibrated for the Laternser valley in Vorarlberg, Austria. The calibrated parameter ensemble and its performance from this previous study are compared with a calibrated parameter ensemble of the model TRIGRS for the Passeier valley in South Tyrol, Italy. The comparison showed very similar model performance and large similarities in the calibrated geotechnical parameter values of the best model runs in both study areas. There is a subset of calibrated geotechnical parameter values that can be used successfully in both study areas and potentially other study areas with similar lithological characteristics. For the hydraulic parameters, the study did not find a transferable parameter subset. These parameters seem to be more sensitive to different soil types. Additionally, the results of the study also showed the importance of the inclusion of detailed information on the timing of landslide initiation in the calibration of the model. 相似文献
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根据已建立的坚固体孕震模型,通过模拟计算和对比研究,得出坚固体模型应用能密度相对均匀分层模型的增量变化图象及其演化特征,研究表明,该孕震模型在外荷载作用下,软弱体部位的应变能水平总体高于坚固体的,断层部位的应变能密度也比较低,随着外荷载的增大,软弱体首先发生屈服变形和“能量饱和”应变能密度增加速度减小,坚固体出同服变形和“能量饱和”的现象较弱体晚,加载后期其能量积累速度比软弱体的快,断层部位应变能 相似文献
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Although the nonlinear power form model structure is widely accepted by practitioners in the flood regionalization modelling, there is a lack of studies on whether there is a room for further improvement, and if the answer is yes, what should be done to explore alternative model structures. A framework is proposed in this study towards investigating this issue by the following steps: (i) a universal data‐driven model is utilized to see if there is a room for improvement compared with the conventional model, and (ii) if improvement is achieved, this means that there should exist more effective model structures than the current form. However, because the universal data‐driven models are usually opaque, more explicit model structures should be explored, which are convenient for practical usage. In this study, the proposed framework is applied in a case study using the catchment characteristics from the Flood Estimation Handbook in conjunction with the gamma test, support vector machine (SVM) and genetic programming (GP). First, the gamma test is used for the purpose of input variables selection where no model structure needs to be defined as a priori, and therefore, the result can be applied to any model structures for model building. Second, an SVM, which is a powerful data‐driven nonlinear model capable of modelling a variety of nonlinear systems, is applied to the index flood model for the first time. Once the best model is determined using those two data‐driven tools, GP is employed to find an alternative model structure. As the SVM is not formulated for producing explicit model functional form, the GP offers an advantage at this point where it can infer an explicit mathematical model functional form. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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为研究冲击荷载或地震作用下产生的,以Rayleigh波为主的面波对浅层地表土体动力响应特征以及数值模拟中土层阻尼的设置方法,以厦门地区浅层的素填土及粉质黏土为研究对象,采用有限元动力分析,土体本构采用小应变硬化模型(HSS),利用模型本身的滞回环特性,输入变化的小应变参数,考察HSS模型的小应变参数对场地动力响应的影响,并与土体采用摩尔-库伦模型结合Rayleigh阻尼("MC+Rayleigh阻尼")的计算结果进行对比。研究表明:当采用带有滞回环的HSS模型时,波速随初始剪切模量Gref0的增大而增大,但振幅减小,残余变形量也有所减小;小应变参数γ0.7对波的影响较小;HSS模型能够给出残余变形量,而"MC+Rayleigh阻尼"由于本构模型为理想弹塑性模型,在卸载重加载条件下表现为纯弹性行为,无法反映出卸载重加载过程中塑性应变的积累及其累积阻尼效应;但HSS模型还不能够全面反映循环加载作用下塑性体积应变的累积,因此在考虑滞回阻尼的基础上,仍然建议借助Rayleigh阻尼来更加全面地模拟土体的实际阻尼特性。 相似文献
7.
Using targeted short‐term field investigations to calibrate and evaluate the structure of a hydrological model 
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下载免费PDF全文 This study combines the application of a hydrological model with the use of field data derived from short period measurement campaigns at two sites, one a low topography forested area and the other a steep grassland catchment. The main objective was to determine if the structure of the widely used Pitman model could be considered appropriate for simulating the field data. The model is typically applied at coarse spatial and temporal (1 month) scales, while the tests reported here use data from small catchments and are applied in a daily version of the model. The results demonstrate the importance of ensuring that field observations are measuring the same hydrological variables as the model simulations. At one study site, there was a mismatch in the soil moisture data that was corrected by incorporating a two‐layer soil algorithm into the model. The model results from both field sites identified the sensitivity of the model to assumptions about evaporative demands and indicate that the model structure is very sensitive to the potential evaporation inputs. The overall conclusion is that the model structure is generally appropriate for simulating the hydrological responses at the two sites, but that there remain some unresolved uncertainties about specific model components and the use of certain types of input data. The study lends support for the future development of a more complete daily version of this widely used model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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为探讨城市轨道交通U型梁车桥系统的动力响应,采用线性化轮轨模型建立了31个自由度的轮轨式车辆动力学模型.模型考虑了新型算法的横竖向轨道不平顺,以重庆市轨道交通一号线工程中梁山以西高架区间所采用标准跨径为30m的单线小U结构为对象,采用自编程序对机车车辆过桥时的车桥耦合振动进行了分析,并通过计算与实测结果的对比分析对所建... 相似文献
11.
The accuracy and efficiency of the modelling techniques utilized to model the nonlinear behavior of structural components is a significant issue in earthquake engineering. In this study, the sufficiency of three different modelling techniques that can be employed to simulate the structural behavior of columns is investigated. A fiber-based finite length plastic hinge (FB-FLPH) model is calibrated in this study. In order to calibrate the FB-FLPH model, a novel database of the cyclic behavior of hollow steel columns under simultaneous axial and lateral loading cycles with varying amplitudes is used. By employing the FB-FLPH model calibrated in this study, the interaction of the axial force and the bending moment in columns is directly taken into account, and the deterioration in the cyclic behavior of these members is implicitly considered. The superiority of the calibrated FB-FLPH modelling approach is examined compared with the cases in which conventional fiber-based distributed plasticity and concentrated plasticity models are utilized. The efficiency of the enumerated modelling techniques is probed when they are implemented to model the columns of a typical special moment frame in order to prove the advantage of the FB-FLPH modelling approach.
相似文献12.
June K. Yeung James A. SmithGabriele Villarini Alexandros A. NtelekosMary Lynn Baeck Witold F. Krajewski 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(2):184-204
We examine the warm season (April-September) rainfall climatology of the northeastern US through analyses of high-resolution radar rainfall fields from the Hydro-NEXRAD system and regional climate model simulations using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Analyses center on the 5-year period from 2003 to 2007 and the study area includes the New York-New Jersey metropolitan region covered by radar rainfall fields from the Fort Dix, NJ WSR-88D. The objective of this study is to develop and test tools for examining rainfall climatology, with a special focus on heavy rainfall. An additional emphasis is on rainfall climatology in regions of complex terrain, like the northeastern US, which is characterized by land-water boundaries, large heterogeneity in land use and cover, and mountainous terrain in the western portion of the region. We develop a 5-year record of warm season radar rainfall fields for the study region using the Hydro-NEXRAD system. We perform regional downscaling simulations for the 5-year study period using the WRF model. Radar rainfall fields are used to characterize the interannual, seasonal and diurnal variation of rainfall over the study region and to examine spatial heterogeneity of rainfall. Regional climate model simulations are characterized by a wet bias in the rainfall fields, with the largest bias in the high-elevation regions of the model domain. We show that model simulations capture broad features of the interannual, seasonal, and diurnal variation of rainfall. Model simulations do not capture spatial gradients in radar rainfall fields around the New York metropolitan region and land-water boundaries to the east. The model climatology of convective available potential energy (CAPE) is used to interpret the regional distribution of warm season rainfall and the seasonal and diurnal variability of rainfall. We use hydrologic and meteorological observations from July 2007 to examine the interactions of land surface processes and rainfall from a regional perspective. 相似文献
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Hydrological models are useful tools for better understanding the hydrological processes and performing the hydrological prediction. However, the reliability of the prediction depends largely on its uncertainty range. This study mainly focuses on estimating model parameter uncertainty and quantifying the simulation uncertainties caused by sole model parameters and the co‐effects of model parameters and model structure in a lumped conceptual water balance model called WASMOD (Water And Snow balance MODeling system). The validity of statistical hypotheses on residuals made in the model formation is tested as well, as it is the base of parameter estimation and simulation uncertainty evaluation. The bootstrap method is employed to examine the parameter uncertainty in the selected model. The Yingluoxia watershed at the upper reaches of the Heihe River basin in north‐west of China is selected as the study area. Results show that all parameters in the model can be regarded as normally distributed based on their marginal distributions and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, although they appear slightly skewed for two parameters. Their uncertainty ranges are different from each other. The model residuals are tested to be independent, homoscedastic and normally distributed. Based on such valid hypotheses of model residuals, simulation uncertainties caused by co‐effects of model parameters and model structure can be evaluated effectively. It is found that the 95% and 99% confidence intervals (CIs) of simulated discharge cover 42.7% and 52.4% of the observations when only parameter uncertainty is considered, indicating that parameter uncertainty has a great effect on simulation uncertainty but still cannot be used to explain all the simulation uncertainty in this study. The 95% and 99% CIs become wider, and the percentages of observations falling inside such CIs become larger when co‐effects of parameters and model structure are considered, indicating that simultaneous consideration of both parameters and model structure uncertainties accounts sufficient contribution for model simulation uncertainty. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Optimization models play an important role in long-term hydroelectric resources planning. The effectiveness of an optimization
model, however, depends on its capability of dealing with uncertainties. This study presents a multistage interval-stochastic
programming model for long-term hydropower planning, in which uncertainties are reflected as randomness and intervals. The
model is developed based on interval programming technique and recourse-based multistage stochastic programming and using
the expected value of long-term hydroelectric profit as the objective function. A solution method of the developed model is
also presented, which is based on a decomposition method by partitioning the multistage interval-stochastic program into two-stage
stochastic programming sub-problems in each scenario-tree node. A hypothetical case study is used to demonstrate the developed
model and its solution method. Modeling results demonstrates the computationally effectiveness of the solution method and
reveal the applicability of the developed model for long term planning of hydroelectric resources. 相似文献
15.
The hyporheic zone (HZ) plays a vital role in the stream ecosystem. Reactions in the HZ such as denitrification and nitrification have been examined in previous studies. However, no numerical model has yet been developed that can accurately simulate nitrogen concentration changes in the HZ, because the zones for the two reactions can change throughout the reactions. This study proposes a method of evaluating the nitrogen removal rate in the HZ through numerical modelling. First, a basic two‐dimensional numerical model coupling flow conditions with biochemical reactions is proposed to consider both nitrification and denitrification. The zones for different reactions are determined under the assumption that related environmental variables (i.e., the dissolved oxygen) will not change throughout the reactions. Next, to examine changes in environmental variables throughout the reactions, an improved model is proposed, and a method is developed for delineating the boundary between nitrification and denitrification zones and identifying a transition zone where either reaction might take place. However, more information about biochemical reactions in the HZ is required to use the improved model. To overcome this shortcoming, a new model that couples the basic model and genetic programming (GP) is proposed to optimize the simulation results of the basic model and allow for real‐time forecasting. The results show that the basic model obtains acceptable simulation results for nitrate concentration distribution in the HZ. The improved model performs better than the basic model, but the model coupling the basic model with GP performs best. In addition, the function of the HZ in nitrogen removal is examined through a case study of four scenarios, leading to the conclusion that the HZ has a higher nitrogen removal rate when water quality is neither too poor nor too good. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of the HZ and can benefit the restoration and management of HZs and streams in the face of the continual degradation caused by human activity. 相似文献
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栅格新安江模型在天津于桥水库流域上游的应用 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
栅格新安江模型是在概念性新安江模型的理论基础上,以栅格为计算单元,结合地形地貌和下垫面特性构建出来的水文模型.在于桥水库流域上游的水平口流域应用栅格新安江模型,研究该地区洪水要素的空间变化以及洪水形成过程,讨论洪水模拟效果来验证模型在半湿润地区的适用性.选取水平口流域1978-2012年的洪水进行模型计算,模拟结果较好地反映了流域产流面积的时空变化,且均达到乙级以上精度.初步表明栅格新安江模型在半湿润地区有较好的适用性. 相似文献
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Carolina Massmann 《水文研究》2020,34(1):4-20
Investigating the performance that can be achieved with different hydrological models across catchments with varying characteristics is a requirement for identifying an adequate model for any catchment, gauged or ungauged, just based on information about its climate and catchment properties. As parameter uncertainty increases with the number of model parameters, it is important not only to identify a model achieving good results but also to aim at the simplest model still able to provide acceptable results. The main objective of this study is to identify the climate and catchment properties determining the minimal required complexity of a hydrological model. As previous studies indicate that the required model complexity varies with the temporal scale, the study considers the performance at the daily, monthly, and annual timescales. In agreement with previous studies, the results show that catchments located in arid areas tend to be more difficult to model. They therefore require more complex models for achieving an acceptable performance. For determining which other factors influence model performance, an analysis was carried out for four catchment groups (snowy, arid, and eastern and western catchments). The results show that the baseflow and aridity indices are the most consistent predictors of model performance across catchment groups and timescales. Both properties are negatively correlated with model performance. Other relevant predictors are the fraction of snow in the annual precipitation (negative correlation with model performance), soil depth (negative correlation with model performance), and some other soil properties. It was observed that the sign of the correlation between the catchment characteristics and model performance varies between clusters in some cases, stressing the difficulties encountered in large sample analyses. Regarding the impact of the timescale, the study confirmed previous results indicating that more complex models are needed for shorter timescales. 相似文献
19.
S. Sreedevi 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(6):701-719
Hydrological models demand large numbers of input parameters, which are to be optimally identified for better simulation of various hydrological processes. Identifying the most relevant parameters and their values using efficient sensitivity analysis methods helps to better understand model performance. In this study, the physically-based distributed model SHETRAN is used for hydrological simulation on the Netravathi River Basin in south India and the most important parameters are identified using the Morris screening method. Further, the influence of a particular model parameter on streamflow is quantified using local sensitivity analysis and optimal parameters are obtained for calibration of the SHETRAN model. The results demonstrate the capability of two-stage sensitivity analysis, combining qualitative and quantitative methods in the initial screening-out of insignificant model parameters, identifying parameter interactions and quantifying the contribution of each model parameter to the streamflow. The results of the sensitivity analysis simplified the calibration procedure of SHETRAN for the study area. 相似文献
20.
Assessment of change in design flood frequency under climate change using a multivariate downscaling model and a precipitation-runoff model 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Hyun-Han Kwon Bellie Sivakumar Young-Il Moon Byung-Sik Kim 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(4):567-581
Precipitation and runoff are key elements in the hydrologic cycle because of their important roles in water supply, flood
prevention, river restoration, and ecosystem management. Global climate change, widely accepted to be happening, is anticipated
to have enormous consequences on future hydrologic patterns. Studies on the potential changes in global, regional, and local
hydrologic patterns under global climate change scenarios have been an intense area of research in recent years. The present
study contributes to this research topic through evaluation of design flood under climate change. The study utilizes a weather
state-based, stochastic multivariate model as a conditional probability model for simulating the precipitation field. An important
premise of this study is that large-scale climatic patterns serve as a major driver of persistent year-to-year changes in
precipitation probabilities. Since uncertainty estimation in the study of climate change is needed to examine the reliability
of the outcomes, this study also applies a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme to the widely used SAC-SMA (Sacramento
soil moisture accounting) precipitation-runoff model. A case study is also performed with the Soyang Dam watershed in South
Korea as the study basin. Finally, a comprehensive discussion on design flood under climate change is made. 相似文献