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1.
Snowmelt water supplies streamflow and growing season soil moisture in mountain regions, yet pathways of snowmelt water and their effects on moisture patterns are still largely unknown. This study examined how flow processes during snowmelt runoff affected spatial patterns of soil moisture on two steep sub‐alpine hillslope transects in Rocky Mountain National Park, CO, USA. The transects have northeast‐facing and east‐facing aspects, and both extend from high‐elevation bedrock outcrops down to streams in valley bottoms. Spatial patterns of both snow depth and near‐surface soil moisture were surveyed along these transects in the snowmelt and summer seasons of 2008–2010. To link these patterns to flow processes, soil moisture was measured continuously on both transects and compared with the timing of discharge in nearby streams. Results indicate that both slopes generated shallow lateral subsurface flow during snowmelt through near‐surface soil, colluvium and bedrock fractures. On the northeast‐facing transect, this shallow subsurface flow emerged through mid‐slope seepage zones, in some cases producing saturation overland flow, whereas the east‐facing slope had no seepage zones or overland flow. At the hillslope scale, earlier snowmelt timing on the east‐facing slope led to drier average soil moisture conditions than on the northeast‐facing slope, but within hillslopes, snow patterns had little relation to soil moisture patterns except in areas with persistent snow drifts. Results suggest that lateral flow and exfiltration processes are key controls on soil moisture spatial patterns in this steep sub‐alpine location. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
High‐resolution, spatially extensive climate grids can be useful in regional hydrologic applications. However, in regions where precipitation is dominated by snow, snowmelt models are often used to account for timing and magnitude of water delivery. We developed an empirical, nonlinear model to estimate 30‐year means of monthly snowpack and snowmelt throughout Oregon. Precipitation and temperature for the period 1971–2000, derived from 400‐m resolution PRISM data, and potential evapotranspiration (estimated from temperature and day length) drive the model. The model was calibrated using mean monthly data from 45 SNOTEL sites and accurately estimated snowpack at 25 validation sites: R2 = 0·76, Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) = 0·80. Calibrating it with data from all 70 SNOTEL sites gave somewhat better results (R2 = 0·84, NSE = 0·85). We separately applied the model to SNOTEL stations located < 200 and ≥ 200 km from the Oregon coast, since they have different climatic conditions. The model performed equally well for both areas. We used the model to modify moisture surplus (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) to account for snowpack accumulation and snowmelt. The resulting values accurately reflect the shape and magnitude of runoff at a snow‐dominated basin, with low winter values and a June peak. Our findings suggest that the model is robust with respect to different climatic conditions, and that it can be used to estimate potential runoff in snow‐dominated basins. The model may allow high‐resolution, regional hydrologic comparisons to be made across basins that are differentially affected by snowpack, and may prove useful for investigating regional hydrologic response to climate change. Published in 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
In the semi‐arid Mediterranean environment, the rainfall–runoff relationships are complex because of the markedly irregular patterns in rainfall, the seasonal mismatch between evaporation and rainfall, and the spatial heterogeneity in landscape properties. Watersheds often display considerable non‐linear threshold behavior, which still make runoff generation an open research question. Our objectives in this context were: to identify the primary processes of runoff generation in a small natural catchment; to test whether a physically based model, which takes into consideration only the primary processes, is able to predict spatially distributed water‐table and stream discharge dynamics; and to use the hydrological model to increase our understanding of runoff generation mechanisms. The observed seasonal dynamics of soil moisture, water‐table depth, and stream discharge indicated that Hortonian overland‐flow was negligible and the main mechanism of runoff generation was saturated subsurface‐flow. This gives rise to base‐flow, controls the formation of the saturated areas, and contributes to storm‐flow together with saturation overland‐flow. The distributed model, with a 1D scheme for the kinematic surface‐flow, a 2D sub‐horizontal scheme for the saturated subsurface‐flow, and ignoring the unsaturated flow, performed efficiently in years when runoff volume was high and medium, although there was a smoothing effect on the observed water‐table. In dry years, small errors greatly reduced the efficiency of the model. The hydrological model has allowed to relate the runoff generation mechanisms with the land‐use. The forested hillslopes, where the calibrated soil conductivity was high, were never saturated, except at the foot of the slopes, where exfiltration of saturated subsurface‐flow contributed to storm‐flow. Saturation overland‐flow was only found near the streams, except when there were storm‐flow peaks, when it also occurred on hillslopes used for pasture, where soil conductivity was low. The bedrock–soil percolation, simulated by a threshold mechanism, further increased the non‐linearity of the rainfall–runoff processes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
A study was undertaken during the winter of 1990–1991 in a small (3.7 ha) Canadian Shield catchment to examine the hydrological and hydrochemical response during rain-on-snow events. The results are presented of two large (37.9 and 34.6 mm) rain-on-snow events occurring in early and late March 1991. Peak and total runoff and the groundwater response from the two events are significantly different. Hydrological data indicate that these differences can be attributed to a combination of meteorological (temperature) and physical conditions (antecedent snowpack ripeness, soil moisture and groundwater levels). An immature snowpack (low temperature and density) combined with low antecedent soil moisture conditions significantly reduced the magnitude of the net hydrological input and runoff from the catchment during the early March event, whereas a more mature snowpack and high antecedent soil moisture conditions led to a large runoff event during late March. During both rain-on-snow events a significant portion of the pre-event snowpack chemical load was lost. Based on the maximum snowpack chemical load measured before the events, the two large rain-on-snow events and a brief mid-March warm period during which there were two much smaller rain-on-snow events removed 78% of the hydrogen ion and 63% of the sulphate and nitrate load from the snowpack, while only reducing snowpack water equivalence by 7%. A two-component (rain and snowmelt) isotopic (δ18O SMOW %0) separation of snowmelt lysimeter water during the two events indicated that snowmelt was an important (50 and 65%, respectively) water source available for infiltration and runoff at the snow-soil interface. Considering the high hydrogen ion loadings to the catchment during these two events (3.3 and 3.0 mequiv.m?2, respectively) streamflow pH was not significantly reduced due to an increase in the discharge of well-buffered groundwater. A two-component isotopic hydrograph separation of peak stream discharge during the 2–3 March event indicated that 75% of the total flow was groundwater. In mid-latitude acid-sensitive catchments, winter rain-on-snow events are an important hydrological occurrence due to their ability to elute much of the chemical load (H+, SO4, NO3) from the snowpack before the onset of spring melt when the maximum annual hydrological input typically occurs.  相似文献   

5.
A number of previous studies using models of integrated surface‐subsurface hydrology have adopted the Panday and Huyakorn (P&H) tilted V‐catchment test case (Panday S, Huyakorn PS. 2004. A fully coupled spatially distributed model for evaluating surface/subsurface flow. Advances in Water Resources 27: 361–382) to show inter‐code comparability. The P&H test case is used to evaluate models that simulate a broad range of hydrological processes, and yet only the catchment outflow hydrograph has been presented as verification of the consistency between codes. Therefore, a more comprehensive evaluation of the surface‐subsurface hydrology of the P&H case is needed. This study explores the internal catchment functioning of the P&H case, using the popular catchment simulator MODHMS. The processes leading to streamflow generation in the model are illustrated, including separation of overland flow (OLF) and groundwater discharge to the stream. The results identify non‐physical flow processes due to the problem set‐up, and modifications to the P&H case are suggested that include changes to stream roughness and incision of the stream channel to overcome these shortcomings. A modified P&H case produced more plausible transfers between OLF and the stream, and an increased groundwater discharge to the stream (6·5% of streamflow in the modified case compared to 0·5% in the original case). Despite changes to internal flow processes, near‐identical outflow hydrographs were obtained, showing the importance of considering and comparing internal flow processes when using surface‐subsurface hydrology test cases to evaluate integrated hydrological simulators. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Temporal variability in suspended sediment delivery processes was studied during three seasons in a 7·9 km2 catchment at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, Nunavut in the Canadian High Arctic. Discharge was controlled primarily by the magnitude of snowmelt, with limited inputs from ground ice melt and precipitation. Years with greater snowpack non‐linearly increased sediment yield and resulted in seasonal counter‐clockwise hysteresis, while a year with low snowpack resulted in reduced sediment yield and clockwise hysteresis, and indicates that sediment was increasingly available after the onset of streamflow. In addition to the event‐scale hysteresis observed during the nival discharge peak, diurnal clockwise hysteresis was observed during all three seasons and suggests daily exhaustion of sediment supplies. These results indicate that the channel snowpack plays a primary role over sediment accessibility during the nival discharge peak. Similarly, grain size analysis of suspended material in the river showed that the coarsest mean grain size was transported during the early phase of peak nival discharge and indicates that isolated sources of coarse material were being accessed by high velocity flow. Snowpack is present through the peak nival period and conditions sediment availability by isolating channel sediments from high‐energy flow. These results indicate sediment delivery characteristics in small High Arctic catchments reflect complex interactions with channel snowpack and disproportionate responses to flow conditions that differ from glacial and temperate settings. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Verification of distributed hydrologic models is rare owing to the lack of spatially detailed field measurements and a common mismatch between the scale at which soil hydraulic properties are measured and the scale of a single modelling unit. In this study, two of the most commonly calibrated parameters, i.e. soil depth and the vertical distribution of lateral saturated hydraulic conductivity Ks, were eliminated by a spatially detailed soil characterization and results of a hillslope‐scale field experiment. The soil moisture routing (SMR) model, a geographic information system‐based hydrologic model, was modified to represent the dominant hydrologic processes for the Palouse region of northern Idaho. Modifications included Ks as a double exponential function of depth in a single soil layer, a snow accumulation and melt algorithm, and a simple relationship between storage and perched water depth (PWD) using the drainable porosity. The model was applied to a 2 ha catchment without calibration to measured data. Distributed responses were compared with observed PWD over a 3‐year period on a 10 m × 15 m grid. Integrated responses were compared with observed surface runoff at the catchment outlet. The modified SMR model simulated the PWD fluctuations remarkably well, especially considering the shallow soils in this catchment: a 0·20 m error in PWD is equivalent to only a 1·6% error in predicted soil moisture content. Simulations also captured PWD fluctuations during a year with high spatial variability of snow accumulation and snowmelt rates at upslope, mid‐slope, and toe slope positions with errors as low as 0·09 m, 0·12 m, and 0·12 m respectively. Errors in distributed and integrated model simulations were attributed mostly to misrepresentation of rain events and snowmelt timing problems. In one location in the catchment, simulated PWD was consistently greater than observed PWD, indicating a localized recharge zone, which was not identified by the soil morphological survey. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Effective control of nonpoint source pollution from contaminants transported by runoff requires information about the source areas of surface runoff. Variable source hydrology is widely recognized by hydrologists, yet few methods exist for identifying the saturated areas that generate most runoff in humid regions. The Soil Moisture Routing model is a daily water balance model that simulates the hydrology for watersheds with shallow sloping soils. The model combines elevation, soil, and land use data within the geographic information system GRASS, and predicts the spatial distribution of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, saturation‐excess overland flow (i.e., surface runoff), and interflow throughout a watershed. The model was applied to a 170 hectare watershed in the Catskills region of New York State and observed stream flow hydrographs and soil moisture measurements were compared to model predictions. Stream flow prediction during non‐winter periods generally agreed with measured flow resulting in an average r2 of 0·73, a standard error of 0·01 m3/s, and an average Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency R2 of 0·62. Soil moisture predictions showed trends similar to observations with errors on the order of the standard error of measurements. The model results were most accurate for non‐winter conditions. The model is currently used for making management decisions for reducing non‐point source pollution from manure spread fields in the Catskill watersheds which supply New York City's drinking water. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Integrated hydrologic models characterize catchment responses by coupling the subsurface flow with land surface processes. One of the major areas of uncertainty in such models is the specification of the initial condition and its influence on subsequent simulations. A key challenge in model initialization is that it requires spatially distributed information on model states, groundwater levels and soil moisture, even when such data are not routinely available. Here, the impact of uncertainty in initial condition was explored across a 208 km2 catchment in Denmark using the ParFlow.CLM model. The initialization impact was assessed under two meteorological conditions (wet vs dry) using five depth to water table and soil moisture distributions obtained from various equilibrium states (thermal, root zone, discharge, saturated and unsaturated zone equilibrium) during the model spin‐up. Each of these equilibrium states correspond to varying computation times to achieve stability in a particular aspect of the system state. Results identified particular sensitivity in modelled recharge and stream flow to the different initializations, but reduced sensitivity in modelled energy fluxes. Analysis also suggests that to simulate a year that is wetter than the spin‐up period, an initialization based on discharge equilibrium is adequate to capture the direction and magnitude of surface water–groundwater exchanges. For a drier or hydrologically similar year to the spin‐up period, an initialization based on groundwater equilibrium is required. Variability of monthly subsurface storage changes and discharge bias at the scale of a hydrological event show that the initialization impacts do not diminish as the simulations progress, highlighting the importance of robust and accurate initialization in capturing surface water–groundwater dynamics. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
ABSTRACT

The snowmelt runoff process from small basins is discussed. A differentiation is made between overland flow in the snowpack and groundwater flow induced by infiltrating meltwater. The effect of variations of the snowmelt intensity on streamflow is studied. It is shown that the runoff is high from the first day of snowmelt runoff if the streamflow is caused by overland flow, and that there are pronounced peaks every day, which almost correspond with the snowmelt intensity during daytime. Streamflow originating from groundwater, on the other hand, increases continuously during the snowmelt and shows only small daily peaks in the flow. Simultaneous overland and groundwater flow are also discussed. Observed runoff hydrographs from small basins are analysed in some detail. For the open fields studied the runoff shows the typical character of overland flow. For a rather large forested area the surface runoff also constitutes an important part of the runoff, but the groundwater baseflow is considerable.  相似文献   

11.
Land use in Panama has changed dramatically with ongoing deforestation and conversion to cropland and cattle pastures, potentially altering the soil properties that drive the hydrological processes of infiltration and overland flow. We compared plot-scale overland flow generation between hillslopes in forested and actively cattle-grazed watersheds in Central Panama. Soil physical and hydraulic properties, soil moisture and overland flow data were measured along hillslopes of each land-use type. Soil characteristics and rainfall data were input into a simple, 1-D representative model, HYDRUS-1D, to simulate overland flow that we used to make inferences about overland flow response at forest and pasture sites. Runoff ratios (overland flow/rainfall) were generally higher at the pasture site, although no overall trends were observed between rainfall characteristics and runoff ratios across the two land uses at the plot scale. Saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and bulk density were different between the forest and pasture sites (p < 10−4). Simulating overland flow in HYDRUS-1D produced more outputs similar to the overland flow recorded at the pasture site than the forest site. Results from our study indicate that, at the plot scale, Hortonian overland flow is the main driver for overland flow generation at the pasture site during storms with high-rainfall totals. We infer that the combination of a leaf litter layer and the activation of shallow preferential flow paths resulting in shallow saturation-excess overland flow are likely the main drivers for plot scale overland flow generation at the forest site. Results from this study contribute to the broader understanding of the delivery of freshwater to streams, which will become increasingly important in the tropics considering freshwater resource scarcity and changing storm intensities.  相似文献   

12.
Soil moisture dynamics have a significant effect on overland flow generation. Catchment aspect is one of the major controlling factors of overland flow and soil moisture behaviour. A few experimental studies have been carried out in the uneven topography of the Himalayas. This study presents plot‐scale experiments using portable rainfall simulator at an altitude of 1,230 m above mean sea level and modelling of overland flow using observed datasets. Two plots were selected in 2 different aspects of Aglar watershed of Lesser Himalaya; the agro‐forested (AF) plot was positioned at the north aspect whereas the degraded (DE) plot was located at the south aspect of the hillslope. HS flumes and rain gauges were installed to measure the runoff at the outlet of the plot and the rainfall depth during rainfall simulation experiments. Moreover, 10 soil moisture sensors were installed at upslope and downslope locations of both the plots at 5, 15, 25, 35, and 45 cm depth from ground level to capture the soil moisture dynamics. The tests were conducted at intensities of 79.8 and 75 mm/hr in AF plot and 82.2 and 72 mm/hr in the DE plot during Test 1 and Test 2, respectively. The observed data indicate the presence of reinfiltration process only in the AF plot. The high water holding capacity and the presence of reinfiltration process results in less runoff volume in the AF plot compared with the DE plot. The Hortonian overland flow mechanism was found to be the dominant overland flow mechanism as only a few layers of top soil get saturated during all of the rainfall–runoff experiments. The runoff, rainfall, and soil moisture data were subsequently used to calibrate the parameters of HYDRUS‐2D overland flow module to simulate the runoff hydrograph and soil moisture. The components of hydrograph were evaluated in terms of peak discharge, runoff volume and time of concentration, the results were found to be within the satisfactory range. The goodness of fit of simulated hydrographs were more than 0.85 and 0.95 for AF and DE plot, respectively. The model produced satisfactory simulation results of soil moisture for all of the rainfall–runoff experiments. The HYDRUS‐2D overland flow module was found promising to simulate the runoff hydrograph and soil moisture in plot‐scale research.  相似文献   

13.
Hydrological processes in karst basins are controlled by permeable multimedia, consisting of soil pores, epikarst fractures, and underground conduits. Distributed modelling of hydrological dynamics in such heterogeneous hydrogeological conditions is a challenging task. Basing on the multilayer structure of the distributed hydrology‐soil‐vegetation model (DHSVM), a distributed hydrological model for a karst basin was developed by integrating mathematical routings of porous Darcy flow, fissure flow and underground channel flow. Specifically, infiltration and saturated flow movement within epikarst fractures are expressed by the ‘cubic law’ equation which is associated with fractural width, direction, and spacing. A small karst basin located in Guizhou province of southwest China was selected for this hydrological simulation. The model parameters were determined on the basis of field measurement and calibrated against the observed soil moisture contents, vegetation interception, surface runoff, and underground flow discharges from the basin outlet. The results show that due to high permeability of the epikarst zone, a significant amount of surface runoff is only generated after heavy rainfall events during the wet season. Rock exposure and the epikarst zone significantly increase flood discharge and decrease evapotranspiration (ET) loss; the peak flood discharge is directly proportional to the size of the aperture. Distribution of soil moisture content (SMC) primarily depends on topographic variations just after a heavy rainfall, while SMC and actual ET are dominated by land cover after a period of consecutive non‐rainfall days. The new model was able to capture the sharp increase and decrease of the underground streamflow hydrograph, and as such can be used to investigate hydrological effects in such rock features and land covers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Modelling nutrient transport during snowmelt in cold regions remains a major scientific challenge. A key limitation of existing nutrient models for application in cold regions is the inadequate representation of snowmelt, including hydrological and biogeochemical processes. This brief period can account for more than 80% of the total annual surface runoff in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Canada and processes such as atmospheric deposition, overwinter redistribution of snow, ion exclusion from snow crystals, frozen soils, and snow‐covered area depletion during melt influence the distribution and release of snow and soil nutrients, thus affecting the timing and magnitude of snowmelt runoff nutrient concentrations. Research in cold regions suggests that nitrate (NO3) runoff at the field‐scale can be divided into 5 phases during snowmelt. In the first phase, water and ions originating from ion‐rich snow layers travel and diffuse through the snowpack. This process causes ion concentrations in runoff to gradually increase. The second phase occurs when this snow ion meltwater front has reached the bottom of the snowpack and forms runoff to the edge‐of‐the‐field. During the third and fourth phases, the main source of NO3 transitions from the snowpack to the soil. Finally, the fifth and last phase occurs when the snow has completely melted, and the thawing soil becomes the main source of NO3 to the stream. In this research, a process‐based model was developed to simulate hourly export based on this 5‐phase approach. Results from an application in the Red River Basin of southern Manitoba, Canada, shows that the model can adequately capture the dynamics and rapid changes of NO3 concentrations during this period at relevant temporal resolutions. This is a significant achievement to advance the current nutrient modelling paradigm in cold climates, which is generally limited to satisfactory results at monthly or annual resolutions. The approach can inform catchment‐scale nutrient models to improve simulation of this critical snowmelt period.  相似文献   

15.
This study is about use of spatially distributed rain in physically based hydrological models. In recent years, spatially distributed radar rainfall data have become available. The distributed radar rain is used to precisely model hydrologic processes and it is more realistic than the past practice of distribution methods like Thiessen polygons. Radar provides a highly accurate spatial distribution of rainfall and greatly improves the basin average rainfall estimates. However, quantification of the exact amount of rainfall from radar observation is relatively difficult. Thus, the fundamental idea of this study is to apply hourly gauge and radar rainfall data in a distributed hydrological model to simulate hydrological parameters. Hence the comparison is made between the outcomes of the WetSpa model from radar rainfall distribution and gauge rainfall distributed by the Thiessen polygon technique. The comparative plots of the hydrograph and the results of hydrological components such as evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil moisture, recharge and interflow, reflect the spatially distributed radar input performing well for model outflow simulation.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Pappenberger  相似文献   

16.
17.
A distributed overland flow model is presented and the test results compared with those of the unit hydrograph (UH) model. Infiltration excess in the overland model was calculated using both a modified Green and Ampt (G–A) method and a more complicated method that keeps track of the soil moisture content. The two‐dimensional partial differential flow equations with kinematic flow approximation were solved using both backward‐central explicit and implicit finite‐difference schemes. Moreover, a baseflow component was added to the flow model. Each part of the model was built by replacing a process by a parallel process or by adding a completely new component. When the model was developed and validated in small agricultural fields in southern Finland, comparisons were made between corresponding processes and the significance of added components were estimated in order to find out whether increased model complexity improves the model performance. Apart from the basic model, all the other distributed models outperformed the UH approach. The implicit scheme was clearly more accurate than the explicit scheme, and the baseflow component improved the results significantly. There was no major difference between the performances of the infiltration models, but the G–A method was more stable and much faster. The approaches that were best in the calibration were also the best in the verification. The full distributed model provides a potential method for running water‐quality models and testing their different processes. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Integrated river basin models should provide a spatially distributed representation of basin hydrology and transport processes to allow for spatially implementing specific management and conservation measures. To accomplish this, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was modified by integrating a landscape routing model to simulate water flow across discretized routing units. This paper presents a grid‐based version of the SWAT landscape model that has been developed to enhance the spatial representation of hydrology and transport processes. The modified model uses a new flow separation index that considers topographic features and soil properties to capture channel and landscape flow processes related to specific landscape positions. The resulting model is spatially fully distributed and includes surface, lateral and groundwater fluxes in each grid cell of the watershed. Furthermore, it more closely represents the spatially heterogeneous distributed flow and transport processes in a watershed. The model was calibrated and validated for the Little River Watershed (LRW) near Tifton, Georgia (USA). Water balance simulations as well as the spatial distribution of surface runoff, subsurface flow and evapotranspiration are examined. Model results indicate that groundwater flow is the dominant landscape process in the LRW. Results are promising, and satisfactory output was obtained with the presented grid‐based SWAT landscape model. Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiencies for daily stream flow were 0.59 and 0.63 for calibration and validation periods, and the model reasonably simulates the impact of the landscape position on surface runoff, subsurface flow and evapotranspiration. Additional revision of the model will likely be necessary to adequately represent temporal variations of transport and flow processes in a watershed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
In this study, uncertainty in model input data (precipitation) and parameters is propagated through a physically based, spatially distributed hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE code. Precipitation uncertainty is accounted for using an ensemble of daily rainfall fields that incorporate four different sources of uncertainty, whereas parameter uncertainty is considered using Latin hypercube sampling. Model predictive uncertainty is assessed for multiple simulated hydrological variables (discharge, groundwater head, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture). Utilizing an extensive set of observational data, effective observational uncertainties for each hydrological variable are assessed. Considering not only model predictive uncertainty but also effective observational uncertainty leads to a notable increase in the number of instances, for which model simulation and observations are in good agreement (e.g., 47% vs. 91% for discharge and 0% vs. 98% for soil moisture). Effective observational uncertainty is in several cases larger than model predictive uncertainty. We conclude that the use of precipitation uncertainty with a realistic spatio‐temporal correlation structure, analyses of multiple variables with different spatial support, and the consideration of observational uncertainty are crucial for adequately evaluating the performance of physically based, spatially distributed hydrological models.  相似文献   

20.
Extended severe dry and wet periods are frequently observed in the northern continental climate of the Canadian Prairies. Prairie streamflow is mainly driven by spring snowmelt of the winter snowpack, whilst summer rainfall is an important control on evapotranspiration and thus seasonality affects the hydrological response to drought and wet periods in complex ways. A field‐tested physically based model was used to investigate the influences of climatic variability on hydrological processes in this region. The model was set up to resolve agricultural fields and to include key cold regions processes. It was parameterized from local and regional measurements without calibration and run for the South Tobacco Creek basin in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model was tested against snow depth and streamflow observations at multiple scales and performed well enough to explore the impacts of wet and dry periods on hydrological processes governing the basin scale hydrological response. Four hydro‐climatic patterns with distinctive climatic seasonality and runoff responses were identified from differing combinations of wet/dry winter and summer seasons. Water balance analyses of these patterns identified substantive multiyear subsurface soil moisture storage depletion during drought (2001–2005) and recharge during a subsequent wet period (2009–2011). The fractional percentage of heavy rainfall days was a useful metric to explain the contrasting runoff volumes between dry and wet summers. Finally, a comparison of modeling approaches highlights the importance of antecedent fall soil moisture, ice lens formation during the snowmelt period, and peak snow water equivalent in simulating snowmelt runoff.  相似文献   

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