首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Summary The relationship between information, contained in aerological data from the European area, and a thunderstorm occurrence in the area of the Czech Republic was investigated with input data from the period of May–September 1989–1991. SYNOP reports from Czech ground stations were utilized to assess event occurrence. TEMP 00UTC and TEMP 12UTC reports from European stations were used to determine potential diagnostic predictors, and the TEMP00 data served as the input data set for the 12hr mesoscale model forecast to gain prognostic predictors. Each of the two diagnostic data sets from 00UTC and 12UTC and of the prognostic data set comprised about 400 predictors/predictand elements. The categorical forecast of thunderstorm occurrence, based on the application of linear regression and a simple version of pattern recognition, is discussed. The critical success index was determined for every type of forecast and used to assess forecast skill.  相似文献   

2.
Summary Predictor vectors, including upper air as well as surface data, were used for categorical forecasting convective events over a subregion of the Czech territory, and the effect of including surface variables in the predictor vector was examined. While upper air data were considered as Perfect Prognosis, the surface data were successively included according to the time of their origin. The forecasting technique was based on linear multiple regression with learning, and the accuracy of the forecast was measured by the Critical Success Index. The input data from the three May-September periods in 1989–91 were used, and the first year served as the learning set. The aerological data from TEMP 12 UTC, simulating Perfect Prognosis, were the source of the upper air predictors. The performance of all, upper air, surface and combined, predictors were evaluated and compared. It turned out that the improvement of prediction accuracy due to the inclusion of surface variables was not negligible. Significant improvements were made in the forecasts of thunderstorm occurrence between 18 and 24 UTC.  相似文献   

3.
Variation of atmospheric thermodynamical structure parameters between days of thunderstorm occurrence and non-occurrence is presented based on data sets obtained during Severe Thunderstorm-Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) experiments conducted over Kharagpur (22.3°N, 87.2°E) in pre-monsoon season of 2009 and 2010. Potential instability (stable to neutral) is noticed in the lower layers and enhanced (suppressed) convection in the middle troposphere during thunderstorm (non-thunderstorm) days. Low-level jets are observed during all days of the experimental period but with higher intensity on thunderstorm days. Convective available potential energy (CAPE) builds up until thunderstorm occurrence and becomes dissipated soon after, whereas convective inhibition (CIN) is greatly decreased prior to the event on thunderstorm days. In contrast, higher CAPE and CIN are noticed on non-thunderstorm days. Analysis of thermodynamic indices showed that indices including moisture [humidity index (HI) and dew point temperature at 850 hPa (DPT850)] are useful in differentiating thunderstorm from non-thunderstorm days. The present study reveals that significant moisture availability in the lower troposphere in the presence of convective instability conditions results in thunderstorm occurrence at Kharagpur.  相似文献   

4.
To alert the public to the possibility of tornado (T), hail (H), or convective wind (C), the National Weather Service (NWS) issues watches (V) and warnings (W). There are severe thunderstorm watches (SV), tornado watches (TV), and particularly dangerous situation watches (PV); and there are severe thunderstorm warnings (SW), and tornado warnings (TW). Two stochastic models are formulated that quantify uncertainty in severe weather alarms for the purpose of making decisions: a one-stage model for deciders who respond to warnings, and a two-stage model for deciders who respond to watches and warnings. The models identify all possible sequences of watches, warnings, and events, and characterize the associated uncertainties in terms of transition probabilities. The modeling approach is demonstrated on data from the NWS Norman, Oklahoma, warning area, years 2000–2007. The major findings are these. (i) Irrespective of its official designation, every warning type {SW, TW} predicts with a significant probability every event type {T, H, C}. (ii) An ordered intersection of SW and TW, defined as reinforced warning (RW), provides additional predictive information and outperforms SW and TW. (iii) A watch rarely leads directly to an event, and most frequently is false. But a watch that precedes a warning does matter. The watch type \(\{SV\), TV, \(PV\}\) is a predictor of the warning type \(\{SW\), RW, \(TW\}\) and of the warning performance: It sharpens the false alarm rate of the warning and the predictive probability of an event, and it increases the average lead time of the warning.  相似文献   

5.
Summary A possible relation between the 10-day geomagnetic activity, solar activity and temperatures as measured at the meteorological station Prague - Klementinum in 1932–1975 was sought. It was found that: 1) Kp correlates with the surface temperature in Prague substantially better than Wolf's number R. 2) The correlation between Kp and the surface air temperature is not very close, but is significant at the level p=0.9! 3) If the QBO phase is taken into account, the correlations for the January and February decades of the years 1956–1975 improve as in [27] (van Loon, Labitzke).  相似文献   

6.
Bayes' theorem has possible application to earthquake prediction because it can be used to represent the dependence of the inter-arrival time (T) of thenext event on magnitude (M) of thepreceding earthquake (Ferraes, 1975;Bufe et al., 1977;Shimazaki andNakata, 1980;Sykes andQuittmeyer, 1981). First, we derive the basic formulas, assuming that the earthquake process behaves as a Poisson process. Under this assumption the likelihood probabilities are determined by the Poisson distribution (Ferraes, 1985) after which we introduce the conjugate family of Gamma prior distributions. Finally, to maximize the posterior Bayesian probabilityP(/M) we use calculus and introduce the analytical condition .Subsequently we estimate the occurrence of the next future large earthquake to be felt in Mexico City. Given the probabilistic model, the prediction is obtained from the data set that include all events withM7.5 felt in Mexico City from 1900 to 1985. These earthquakes occur in the Middle-America trench, along Mexico, but are felt in Mexico City. To see the full significance of the analysis, we give the result using two models: (1) The Poisson-Gamma, and (2) The Poisson-Exponential (a special case of the Gamma).Using the Poisson-Gamma model, the next expected event will occur in the next time interval =2.564 years from the last event (occurred on September 19, 1985) or equivalently, the expected event will occur approximately in April, 1988.Using the Poisson-Exponential model, the next expected damaging earthquake will occur in the next time interval =2.381 years from the last event, or equivalently in January, 1988.It should be noted that very strong agreement exists between the two predicted occurrence times, using both models.  相似文献   

7.
Summary The earthquake pattern in the N.E.R. of India is investigated on the background of tectonic conditions. The epicentre maps and the cross-sections indicate some regularities in the spatial distribution of foci, particularly the existence of a Benioff zone, dipping down to 200 km at an angle of 35°–40° to the East between 25° N and 21° N. The shallow and intermediate activities in the Indoburmese zone seem to be mutually related as evidenced by the coincidence of periods of quiescence and activity. The origin of the largest of the whole region (15 Aug. 1950, M=8.6) can be accommodated in the statistics only by assuming a very large preparatory area also encompassing the extended Mishmi region. This event seems to be a rather exceptional event with the return period larger than the sample used for investigation, i.e. 54 years. The problem of a gap in the region of the Upper Assam remains open, the lack of activity also be explained also by pure geological reasons, i.e. by the age of the stable geological formation. The maps and the statistics of extremes provide the estimate of probability of occurrence of large events for practical purpose.  相似文献   

8.
Intermediate-term observations preceding earthquakes of magnitude 5.7 or greater in California from 1975 through 1986 suggest that: (1) The sudden appearance of earthquakes in a previously inactive area indicates an increased likelihood of a significant earthquake in that area for a period from days to years; (2) these larger earthquakes tend to occur towards the ends of creeping fault segments; (3) one large earthquake in a region increases the likelihood of a subsequent significant event in the adjacent area; and (4) marginal evidence for the occurrence of a regional deformation event suggests that such events increase the probability of earthquake occurrence throughout the entire area. A common element in many of these observed patterns appears to be the transmission and amplification of tectonic stress changes by the mechanism of fault creep, and suggests that surface fault creep is a sensitive indicator of changes in stress. The preceding critieria are used to construct a preliminary forecast of the likely locations of significant earthquakes over the next decade.  相似文献   

9.
Summary Recordings of potential gradient and air-earth current in fair-weather conditions were made at high-elevation mountain stations; the latter were generally above the vertical-mixing layer and not disturbed by local sources. Both electrical quantities increased significantly from the day of appearance of a solar flare (or a maximum incidence of flares) till the fourth day after the event. Peak potential gradient and air-earth current exceed the normal levels measured during quiet-sun conditions by 50–60% in terms of averages. This result was compared with sferics incidence data and daily geomagnetic coefficients grouped around the selected (flare) dates. Both of the latter quantities show time histories (for the days preceding and following the selected dates) closely correlated with the atmospheric-electrical histories of the same intervals. We may conclude from these results that the total potential between the ground and the upper atmosphere increases for several days after solar flares. The results obtained by previous studies on Mauna Loa confirm this inference. The cause of the phenomenon is presumed to be enhanced thunderstorm activity attendant on solar disturbances.We wish to thank the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft for a grant taht enabled us to carry out the studies described in this paper  相似文献   

10.
A short survey is given of the concepts associated with meteorological forecast verification and value. Apart from matters of mathematical detail the field has not advanced greatly over the last thirty years. If significant skill develops in long-range (i.e. climate) forecasting, it will be more than ever necessary for the general user to understand the possible consequences—in particular that there can be many circumstances where some forecast skill is worse than none at all. Some highly idealized agricultural examples are used to illustrate the point. It is emphasized that some numerical measure of confidence will have to be associated with (or be built into) probability precasts of climate.  相似文献   

11.
The influence of a flood event on phytoplankton succession   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The effect of the August 1987 River Reuss flood event on the phytoplankton biocoenosis in Lake Uri (Urnersee, part of Lake Lucerne, Switzerland) was investigated firstly by comparing biological, chemical and physical data sampled before the event with equivalent data sampled after the event; and secondly by comparing the phytoplankton succession in 1987 with that occurring in the floodfree year 1989. As a consequence of the flood, the physical and chemical environment of the phytoplankton was found to have undergone a change which resulted in an alteration in the composition of the phytoplankton community. The phytoplankton community existing previous to the flood event, which had been dominated byTabellaria fenestrata sensu Husted 1930 (K-strategist), was replaced by a biocoenosis characterized mainly by various species of flagellates, which represent a typical spring successional stage (r-strategists). After the externally-imposed perturbation, the return to stable physical and chemical conditions was followed by the re-establishment of the successional stage which had existed before the flood (termed reversion by Reynolds, 1980).  相似文献   

12.
In this study, the variations of average amplitude of the very-low-frequency (VLF) signal thunderstorm origin propagating over areas of strong (magnitude >5) earthquakes are considered. Despite the non-stationary state of thunderstorms, a decrease in the amplitude of its VLF signals was usually detected 3–6 days before an earthquake, with subsequent recovery on the day of the event. The effect is similar to the attenuation of the signal amplitude of low-frequency radio stations that is observed for several days before the occurrence of an earthquake. These influences of earthquakes on thunderstorm VLF signals are recorded along different paths (different azimuths and different distances to the earthquake epicenter). The probability that an earthquake of strong magnitude will induce changes in the thunderstorm VLF signal is 60–70%.  相似文献   

13.
The forecasting of evaporative loss (E) is vital for water resource management and understanding of hydrological process for farming practices, ecosystem management and hydrologic engineering. This study has developed three machine learning algorithms, namely the relevance vector machine (RVM), extreme learning machine (ELM) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) for the prediction of E using five predictor variables, incident solar radiation (S), maximum temperature (T max), minimum temperature (T min), atmospheric vapor pressure (VP) and precipitation (P). The RVM model is based on the Bayesian formulation of a linear model with appropriate prior that results in sparse representations. The ELM model is computationally efficient algorithm based on Single Layer Feedforward Neural Network with hidden neurons that randomly choose input weights and the MARS model is built on flexible regression algorithm that generally divides solution space into intervals of predictor variables and fits splines (basis functions) to each interval. By utilizing random sampling process, the predictor data were partitioned into the training phase (70 % of data) and testing phase (remainder 30 %). The equations for the prediction of monthly E were formulated. The RVM model was devised using the radial basis function, while the ELM model comprised of 5 inputs and 10 hidden neurons and used the radial basis activation function, and the MARS model utilized 15 basis functions. The decomposition of variance among the predictor dataset of the MARS model yielded the largest magnitude of the Generalized Cross Validation statistic (≈0.03) when the T max was used as an input, followed by the relatively lower value (≈0.028, 0.019) for inputs defined by the S and VP. This confirmed that the prediction of E utilized the largest contributions of the predictive features from the T max, verified emphatically by sensitivity analysis test. The model performance statistics yielded correlation coefficients of 0.979 (RVM), 0.977 (ELM) and 0.974 (MARS), Root-Mean-Square-Errors of 9.306, 9.714 and 10.457 and Mean-Absolute-Error of 0.034, 0.035 and 0.038. Despite the small differences in the overall prediction skill, the RVM model appeared to be more accurate in prediction of E. It is therefore advocated that the RVM model can be employed as a promising machine learning tool for the prediction of evaporative loss.  相似文献   

14.
The Mw 7.4 Izmit earthquake of 17 August 1999 struck a part ofthe North Anatolian fault in the area of Izmit Bay (NW Turkey). Historicalinformation shows that the fault which moved during the generation of thisearthquake consists of two fault segments moved during the generation oflarge (M 7) earthquakes in 1719 and 1754, respectively. Since then onlythe central part (between Izmit and Lake Sapanca) of this fault ruptured bythe generation of a smaller shock (M = 6.6) in 1878.The spatial stress variations based on the calculation of changes in theCoulomb Failure Function (CFF) associated with this earthquake aresupported by the distribution of strong aftershock foci. Large positive valuesof CFF to the east and west of the mainshock epicenter are inagreement with the notion that secondary faults were triggered there by thegeneration of the main event. Large positive values of CFF are alsoobserved in the adjacent western fault segment where the 1766 event wasgenerated, evidencing the occurrence of the next strong earthquake in thissegment.  相似文献   

15.
Summary Meteorological microseisms, recorded at the Prague seismic station and, similarly, at other Central Europe stations, reflect certain meteorological situations in the North Atlantic frontal zone. Meteorological elements in this zone are affected by some factors of extra-terrestrial origin, among others by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) sector structure. The analysis of the 68 IMF sector boundary passage effects in microseismic activity, expressed in microseismic amplitudes, showed a well-developed minimum of microseismic activity on the day of the boundary passage in winter, but no such effect in spring and autumn. In spring and autumn, however, a tendency was observed to slightly higher microseismic activity in the away (+) sector, whereas no such tendency was observed in winter. These results agree with the IMF effect found in the troposphere. Generally, the IMF sector structure is only a modulating rather than a major factor controlling the microseismic activity.  相似文献   

16.
Several processes acting below, in and above thunderstorms and in electrified shower clouds drive upward currents which close through the global atmospheric electric circuit. These are all simulated in a novel way using the software package PSpice. A moderate negative cloud-to-ground lightning discharge from the base of a thunderstorm increases the ionospheric potential above the thundercloud by 0.0013%. Assuming the ionosphere to be an equipotential surface, this discharge increases the current flowing in the global circuit and the fair-weather electric field also by 0.0013%. A moderate positive cloud-to-ground lightning discharge from the bottom of a thunderstorm decreases the ionospheric potential by 0.014%. Such a discharge may trigger a sprite, causing the ionospheric potential to decrease by . The time scales for the recovery of the ionospheric potential are shown to be , which is of the same order as the CR time constant for the global circuit. Knowing the global average rate of lightning discharges, it is found that negative cloud-to-ground discharges increase the ionospheric potential by only 4%, and that positive cloud-to-ground discharges reduce it by 3%. Thus, overall, lightning contributes only 1%—an almost insignificant proportion—to maintaining the high potential of the ionosphere. It is concluded that the net upward current to the ionosphere due to lightning is only . Further, it is concluded that conduction and convection currents associated with “batteries” within thunderclouds and electrified shower clouds contribute essentially equally ( each) to maintaining the ionospheric potential.  相似文献   

17.
The inter-event time (IET) is sometimes used as a basis for prediction of large earthquakes. It is the case when theoretical analysis of prediction is possible. Quite recently, a specific IET model was suggested for dynamic probabilistic prediction of \( M \ge 5.5 \) events in Italy (http://earthquake.bo.ingv.it). In this study we analyze some aspects of the statistical estimation of the model and its predictive ability. We find that more or less effective prediction is possible within four out of 34 seismotectonic zones where seismicity rate or clustering of events is relatively high. We show that, in the framework of the model, one can suggest a simple zone-independent strategy, which practically optimizes the relative number of non-accidental successes, or the Hanssen-Kuiper (HK) skill score. This quasi-optimal strategy declares alarm in a zone for the first 2.67 years just after the occurrence of each large event in the zone. The optimal HK skill score values are about 26 % for the three most active zones, and 2–10 % for the 26 least active zones. However, the number of false alarm time intervals per one event in each of the zones is unusually high: about 0.7 and 0.8–0.95, respectively. Both these theoretical estimations are important because any prospective testing of the model is unrealistic in most of the zones during a reasonable time. This particular analysis requires a discussion of the following issues of general interest: a specific approach to the analysis of predictions vs. the standard CSEP testing approach; prediction vs. forecasting; HK skill score vs. probability gain; the total forecast error diagram and connected false alarms.  相似文献   

18.
Summary The model of the electrical conductivity distribution within the Bohemian Massif to mid-upper mantle depths was derived from magnetotelluric and magnetic continuum long-period data of the Budkov Observatory (Geophysical Institute, Acad. Sci. Czech Republic., Prague) and from the ISL (Induction Scale Lengths) data of the Prhonice Observatory. The ranges of apparent resistivities in the Bohemian Massif (BM) are compared with those obtained at relevant central European observatories. The conductivity profile is estimated from the resistivity/depth graph corresponding to substitute perfect conductor inversion.Dedicated to the Memory of Professor Karel P  相似文献   

19.
  相似文献   

20.
While most aspects of subduction have been extensively studied, the process of subduction initiation lacks an observational foundation. The Macquarie Ridge complex (MRC) forms the Pacific-Australia plate boundary between New Zealand to the north and the Pacific-Australia-Antarctica triple junction to the south. The MRC consists of alternating troughs and rises and is characterized by a transitional tectonic environment in which subduction initiation presently occurs. There is a high seismicity level with 15 large earthquakes (M>7) in this century. Our seismological investigation is centered on the largest event since 1943: the 25 MAY 1981 earthquake. Love, Rayleigh, andP waves are inverted to find: a faulting geometry of right-lateral strike-slip along the local trend of the Macquarie Ridge (N30°E); a seismic moment of 5×1027 dyn cm (M w=7.7) a double event rupture process with a fault length of less than 100km to the southwest of the epicenter and a fault depth of less than 20km. Three smaller thrust earthquakes occurred previous to the 1981 event along the 1981 rupture zone; their shallow-dipping thrust planes are virtually adjacent to the 1981 vertical fault plane. Oblique convergence in this region is thus accommodated by a dual rupture mode of several small thrust events and a large strike-slip event. Our study of other large MRC earthquakes, plus those of other investigators, produces focal mechanisms for 15 earthquakes distributed along the entire MRC; thrust and right-lateral strike-slip events are scattered throughout the MRC. Thus, all of the MRC is characterized by oblique convergence and the dual rupture mode. The true best-fit rotation pole for the Pacific-Australia motion is close to the Minster & Jordan RM2 pole for the Pacific-India motion. Southward migration of the rotation pole has caused the recent transition to oblique convergence in the northern MRC. We propose a subduction initiation process that is akin to crack propagation; the 1981 earthquake rupture area is identified as the crack-tip region that separates a disconnected mosaic of small thrust faults to the south from a horizontally continuous thrust interface to the north along the Puysegur trench. A different mechanism of subduction initiation occurs in the southernmost Hjort trench region at the triple junction. newly created oceanic lithosphere has been subducted just to the north of the triple junction. The entire MRC is a soft plate boundary that must accommodate the plate motion mismatch between two major spreading centers (Antarctica-Australia and Pacific-Antarctica). The persistence of spreading motion at the two major spreading centers and the consequent evolution of the three-plate system cause the present-day oblique convergence and subduction initiation in the Macquarie Ridge complex.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号