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1.
Ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity are a prerequisite for intensity-based shake maps and seismic hazard assessment and have the advantage of direct relation to earthquake damage and good data availability also for historical events. In this study, we derive GMPE for macroseismic intensity for the Campania region in southern Italy. This region is highly exposed to the seismic hazard related to the high seismicity with moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes in the Appenninic belt. The relations are based on physical considerations and are easy to implement for the user. The uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are accounted for through a Monte Carlo approach and results are compared to those obtained through a standard regression scheme. One relation takes into account the finite dimensions of the fault plane and describes the site intensity as a function of Joyner–Boore distance. Additionally, a relation describing the intensity as a function of epicentral distance is derived for implementation in cases where the dimensions of the fault plane are unknown. The relations are based on an extensive dataset of macroseismic intensities for large earthquakes in the Campania region and are valid in the magnitude range M w = 6.3–7.0 for shallow crustal earthquakes. Results indicate that the uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are negligible in comparison to the spread in the intensity data. The GMPE provide a good overall fit to historical earthquakes in the region and can provide the intensities for a future earthquake within 1 intensity unit.  相似文献   

2.
Intensity of the Muya, 1957 earthquake is assessed in localities based on macroseismic data and in epicentral area based on effects in natural environment; it is analyzed how these assessments correspond to each other and to instrumental location of epicenter, hypocentral depth, and magnitude; it is evaluated, how seismodislocations of the Muya earthquake could serve as control of palaeoseismostructure parameters in this region. Spatial distribution of macroseismic effect confirms relatively deep source (20–22 km). Deep source agrees with anomalously short surface rupture length (not more than 25 km); only a part of the source exposed on the surface. Comparison with length of palaeoseismostructures shows that it is a regional feature. Epicentral intensity based on surface ruptures is assed X degrees in ESI2007 scale. Ignoring geological effects will underestimate epicentral intensity up to two degrees. Source mechanism with three sub-sources is in agreement with segmentation of surface ruptures. Sub-sources are of strike-slip type with small normal component; essential normal slip at surface is probably not representative for the source and is due to accommodation of strike-slip movement along with a system of sub-parallel en echelon ruptures under tension.  相似文献   

3.
The little-known work by Ludwig Heinrich Jeitteles (1830–1883) on the 1858 Žilina strong earthquake in the Carpathian Mountains is commemorated and analysed. Besides his detailed macroseismic analysis of the earthquake — including the construction of isoseismal lines according to local macroseismic reports — Jeitteles was the first to superimpose the macroseismic field over a generalized geological map, which enabled him to describe the earthquake effects in relation to the geological structure of the affected region. These achievements allow us to acknowledge L.H. Jeitteles as one of founding fathers of seismological research of midnineteen century.  相似文献   

4.
It is proposed that some possible macroseismic epicenters can be determined quickly from the relationship that the microseismic epicenters located by instruments bear with faults.Based on these so-called macroseismic epicenters,we can make fast seismic hazard estimation after a shock by use of the empirical distribution model of seismic intensity.In comparison with the method that uses the microseismic epicenters directly,this approach can increase the preccision of fast seismic hazard estimation.Statistical analysis of 133 main earthquakes in China was made.The result shows that the deviation distance between the microseismic epicenter and macroseismic epicenter falls within the range of 35km for 88% earthquakes of the total and within the range of 35to 75km for the remaining ones.Then,we can take the area that has the microseismic epicenter as its center and is 35km in radius as the area for emphatic analysis,and take the area within 75km around the microseismic epicenter as the area for general analysis.The relation between the 66 earthquake cases on the N-S Seismic Belt in China and the spatial distribution characteristics of faults and the results of focal mechanism solution were analyzed in detail.We know from the analysis that the error of instrumental epicenter determination is not the only factor that gives effects to the deviation of the macroseismic epicenter.In addiditon to it,the fault size,fault distribution,fault activity,fault intersection types,earthquake magnitude,etc,are also main affecting factors.By sorting out ,processing and analyzing these affecting factors,the principle and procedures for quickly determining the possible position of the macroseismic epicenter were set up.Taking these as a basis and establishing a nationwide database of faults that contains relevant factors,it is possible to apply this method in practical fast estimation of seismic hazard.  相似文献   

5.
A disastrous earthquake with a magnitude M S = 8.0 (M W = 7.9), in China called “the 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake,” occurred on May 12, 2008, in Sichuan province on the border between the Sino-Tibetan Mountains and the Sichuan depression. The instrumental epicenter was registered in the southeastern part of Wenchuan county, and the hypocenter depth was 14 km. As the strongest and most destructive earthquake within mainland China, it caused numerous human losses and destruction of buildings and infrastructure. The seismic effect from the main shock and aftershocks was felt in many counties, towns, and villages, though Sichuan province suffered the most. The maximum intensity of the shocks was estimated at 11 degrees, according to the Chinese macroseismic scale. In the process of source opening, from the southern part of Wenchuan county to the vicinities of Quingchuan, a seismic fault system with a total length up to 240 km out-cropped on the earth’s surface, confined to the Longmenshan fault belt. The seismic fault system disturbed the original ground, resulting in the collapse or damage to various constructions, such as buildings, homes, bridges, roads, etc. Fault offsets had a dextral strike-slip and thrust kinematic combination. The earthquake generated several tens of thousands of landslides, rockfalls, and debris flows. Many dammed ponds appeared in the epicentral zone due to the activation of landslides. Thus, the geological effects turned out to be the most destructive factor in this case. At the same time, the seismic intensity of surface shaking was abnormally low even in direct proximity to the seismic fault system. Usually it was no more than 7–8 degrees. This macroseismic phenomenon may turn out to be rather typical for many major earthquakes.  相似文献   

6.
This paper presents the results from a macroseismic survey of the impact and consequences of the M W = 7.6 April 20(21), 2006 Olyutorskii earthquake in the area of the Koryak Autonomous Okrug and the adjacent areas in Kamchatka and Magadan regions. The earthquake was felt over an area of about 400000 sq. km with intensities of II to IX–X on the MSK-64 scale. Information was gathered from 37 population centers situated in this area and was used to present a summary of felt effects, to construct an isoseismals map, and to determine the macroseismic magnitude.  相似文献   

7.
Recent seismic events for which macroseismic intensities and accelerometric records are simultaneously available are investigated in order to derive empirical relationships between intensities and ground accelerations. 20 events with local magnitudes 3.0 to 5.4 are selected in a single country (France), in order to have homogeneous intensity data. Records are obtained in about 50 stations. Relationships are first established between intensities, magnitudes and distances on one side, between S-wave horizontal peak ground accelerations (PGA), magnitudes and distances R on the other side. They show that the PGA decays with distance roughly as R −2, in agreement with previous studies, and that PGA and intensities lead to different attenuation models. An intensity-acceleration relationship is established from direct observations, and from a combination of the previous relationships. It reveals that the intensity felt depends not only on the PGAs, but also on the distance. This may be explained by the frequency dependent attenuation of the waves, and by a different sensitivity of humans to the different frequencies. The influence of frequency on the felt intensity is then investigated, and a relation between intensity, PGA and frequency is established. It shows that the acceleration needed to be felt with a given intensity is larger at high frequency than at low frequency.Finally, as sound also contributes to earthquake perception, the P-wave displacement is analysed in an attempt to find in which conditions a perceptible sound is generated. The perturbation in air pressure induced by the P-wave is compared to the threshold of hearing in two frequency ranges, 20–40 Hz and 40–60 Hz. The maximum distance of perceptibility as a function of magnitude deduced from the P-wave displacement alone is found to be below the experimental distances of perception reported in the macroseismic enquiries.  相似文献   

8.
Turkey was struck by two major events on August 17th and November 12th, 1999. Named Kocaeli (Mw=7.4) and Düzce (Mw=7.2) earthquakes, respectively, the two earthquakes provided the most extensive strong ground motion data set ever recorded in Turkey. The strong motion stations operated by the General Directorate of Disaster Affairs, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute of Bogazici University and Istanbul Technical University have produced at least 27 strong motion records for the Kocaeli earthquake within 200 km of the fault. Kocaeli earthquake has generated six motions within 20 km of the fault adding significantly to the near-field database of ground motions for Mw>=7.0 strike–slip earthquakes. The paper discusses available strong motion data, studies their attenuation characteristics, analyses time domain, as well as spectral properties such as spectral accelerations with special emphasis on fault normal and fault parallel components and the elastic attenuation parameter, kappa. A simulation of the Kocaeli earthquake using code FINSIM is also presented.  相似文献   

9.
Macroseismic evaluation of the 1855 Visp (Wallis, Switzerland) earthquake effects presented by Volger in 1856–58 is discussed. It is demonstrated that the macroseismic scale of the damage-to-buildings submitted and applied by Volger as well as his construction of isoseismal-like (iso-damage) lines into map of the affected region represents the first standard macroseismic analysis of an earthquake. In such a way Volger’s concept has been accepted as a model approach to earthquake study by many later seismologists of the pre-instrumental period.  相似文献   

10.
The city of Adapazarı — located in the Marmara Region of northwest Turkey — is situated on a deep sedimentary basin and was the city most heavily damaged by the strong ground motion of the 17 August 1999 Kocaeli earthquake (moment magnitude Mw = 7.4). This study determines site amplifications of the attenuation relationships for shallow earthquakes in the Adapazarı basin by using the previous ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and the traditional spectral ratio method. The site amplifications are determined empirically by averaging the residuals between the observed and predicted peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values for various periods. Residuals are significantly correlated with the known characteristics of geological units. A new attenuation model has also been developed for 5% damped spectral acceleration to determine the dependence of strong ground motions on frequency.  相似文献   

11.
Delineation of the top sedimentary structure and its Qs vs. Qp relationship using the travel-time difference of direct S and converted Sp phase is key to understanding the seismic hazard of any sedimentary basin area. We constructed filtered displacement waveforms from local ETNA Episensor acceleration recordings as well as local velocity recordings of aftershocks of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake recorded by the Kachchh seismological network of the National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), Hyderabad, India during 2001–2004. Stations are within 15–70km of epicenters, and the resulting displacement waveforms are generally simple, displaying prominent P, Sp, and S wave pulses. Particle motion of P and S waves suggest near-vertical raypaths consistent with preliminary depth estimates. The direct S wave on the horizontal component is characterized by lower frequency content than the converted Sp phase on the vertical component. This difference in frequency content between S and Sp phases can be explained in terms of different attenuation effects for P and S waves in the unconsolidated sediments. The Sp phase is generated by S-to-P phase conversion at the base of Mesozoic sediments of the Kachchh basin. Travel-time inversion (VELEST) of 2565 P and 2380 S arrivals from 658 well located aftershocks recorded at 8–14 three-component local seismic stations led to 1 D velocity models indicated very slow sediments in the upper 0–2 km depth range (Vp: 2.92 km/s and Vs: 0.90 km/s) and an increasing trend of velocities with depth at 2–40 km depth. The estimated sediment thicknesses beneath 12 accelerograph and 6 seismograph sites from the estimated velocity model and the travel-time difference between S and converted Sp phases reaches a maximum of (1.534 ± 0.117) km beneath Bandri (near the location of 2001 Bhuj mainshock) and attains a minimum sediment thickness of (0.858 ± 0.104) km beneath Ramvav and Burudia. The spectral ratios between Sp and S from 159 three-component accelerograms have been used to study seismic wave attenuation in the Kachchh rift basin. The estimated Qs vs. Qp relations for 12 accelerograph sites vary from Qs = 0.184 Qp (at Chobari) to Qs = 0.505 Qp (at Dudhai). For stations Chobari, Chopdwa, Jahawarnagar, Vondh and Tapar, the spectral ratio slopes and hence the calculated Qs vs. Qp relations are effectively the same, and the correlation coefficients are quite high (0.91–0.93). Stations Adhoi, Manfara, New Dudhai, Dudhai and Sikara have similar Qs vs. Qp relationships to each other and also have high correlation coefficients (0.78–0.87). The spectral ratios for stations Anjar and Ramvav are small and poorly constrained, resulting in less reliable Qs vs. Qp relations. This could be due to noisy data, fewer available waveforms, or scattering due to velocity heterogeneities and/or interface irregularities.  相似文献   

12.
Damping modification factors (DMF) are used to adjust response spectral values corresponding to damping 5% of critical to other damping levels. Ground motions recorded are orderly grouped according to moment magnitude, site conditions and closest distance. Near-fault motion records with closest distance closer than 10 km are not included in this paper. Based on the classification, the effects of the three seismological parameters on the median DMF are investigated. Consequently, the influence of site class reduces with increasing earthquake magnitude, and the effect of closest distance generally can be neglected with closest distance closer than 100 km except for rock sites. Except for soft soil sites, moment magnitude has a more significant effect than closest distance and site conditions, and the median DMF from acceleration spectra are most sensitive to seismological parameters. For soft soil sites, the median DMF only vary a little with moment magnitude and closest distance.  相似文献   

13.
Existing empirical models for estimating liquefaction-induced lateral spread displacement (DLL) have been derived from a dataset poorly distributed with respect to earthquake magnitude and source distance, and also produced from different tectonic source types and faulting mechanisms. Both the poor distribution and mixed tectonic source types and faulting mechanisms of the data have an adverse impact on the reliability of the empirical models. To overcome these problems in the development of empirical models, we replace the direct use of magnitude and source distance with pseudo-displacement derived from spectral acceleration attenuation models that are well supported by earthquake data, and use a modification factor to account for effects of the non-linear soil response. Attenuation models derived from very large and reasonably well-balanced datasets have been selected, one being a Japanese attenuation model and other being a combination of the Sadigh et al. model and the Youngs et al. model. These models are capable of accounting for the effects of earthquake tectonic source type and faulting mechanism. We determined the model coefficients by selecting the pseudo-displacements calculated for a number of spectral periods to achieve an unbiased distribution of residuals with respect to earthquake magnitude and source distance. Sensitivity analyses have been carried out based on the new and existing models, and show that the new model is more robust than the existing models. Comparison with a limited number of data from the 1997 Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake suggests our model provides comparable liquefaction-induced lateral displacement DLL estimates.  相似文献   

14.
地震预警系统需要在破坏性的地震波到来前快速估算地震参数和地震动参数,以对可能出现的地震灾害进行预测,对重要工程、人员密集区域发布警报信息.以Pd估测PGV的方法是地震预警研究涉及的一种重要问题,该方法利用初至P波触发后前几秒的峰值位移(Pd)对最终地震动峰值速度(PGV)进行估算,以满足预警的需要.本文对2016年在日本发生的熊本地震及其前震、余震的震中距100km以内、矩震级大于4级、井下基岩PGA5cm·s~(-2)和地表PGA20cm·s~(-2)的Kik-net强地震动记录进行处理分析,用于研究以Pd估测PGV的方法.将获得的强地震动数据按震中距从0~100km平均划分为5个区段,在记录时间3~10s范围内将Pd的计算取8个时间窗,分别对每个震中距区段、每一个Pd的时间窗下的PGV-Pd数据进行线性拟合,最终提出了一套应对不同震中距对位移幅值连续追踪测定PGV的算法.对每一个震中距区段的研究表明,震中距会对PGV-Pd关系产生影响.对5次地震进行验证分析,认为基于基岩记录估测基岩PGV的准确度高于基于地表记录估测地表PGV的准确度;对震中距进行分段的PGV估测方法准确度高于不考虑震中距因子的估测方法.最后拓展了将井下基岩Pd估测井下基岩PGV这种原地地震预警方法,使其能够为异地P波预警方法服务.  相似文献   

15.
The Gunzhin system of NE-trending active faults is described on the basis of results of special seis-motectonic studies carried out for the first time around Ulan Bator, Mongolia. This system crosses watershed parts of stream valley. It is named after one of them. The total length of the fault segment traced on aerial photos is 15–20 km. In valleys of some temporary stream flows there are considerable visible horizontal displacements attaining 20–25 m, which testify to the right lateral slip (Khundullun River). Revealed structural parageneses of thrusts and overthrusts, divergent as a fan-shaped system to the both sides from the axial sub-vertical shift zone, are reliably confirmed by the data of geophysical investigations. Taking into account the known correlation relationships between seismodislocation parameters (length and maximum displacement amplitude) and earthquake magnitudes, it is possible to suggest that the Gunzhin Fault generated two paleoearthquakes with the magnitude of about 7.0 in the Late Holocene. It means that displacements along that fault could attain the intensity of 9–10 degrees in the Ulan Bator territory according to the MSK-64 scale. This result must be taken into account in estimation of seismic hazard in the territory discussed.  相似文献   

16.
For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment of uncertainty within the model.  相似文献   

17.
The 2003 Ml = 5.4 Rambervillers earthquake, north-east of France, is the largest seismic event recorded north of the Alps since the 1992 Ms = 5.3, I0 = VII, Roermond earthquake, Netherlands. With a maximum macroseismic intensity of VI-VII EMS-98, the 2003 event was broadly felt to a distance of 300 km from the epicentre. It provides a unique opportunity to test and compare the different procedures used in France, Germany and Switzerland when evaluating macroseismic intensities. The main purpose of this paper is to present a common transfrontier macroseismic map based on the EMS-98 intensity scale. Maximum horizontal accelerations recorded in the area are compared to the intensity values, and we propose to use a differential technique to re-estimate the magnitude of the 1682 Remiremont, I0 = VIII, earthquake, which occurred 40 km south of Rambervillers.  相似文献   

18.
The macroseismic field of the Balkan area   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
A catalogue of 356 macroseimic maps which are available for the Balkan area was compiled, including information on the source parameters of the corresponding earthquakes, the macroseismic parameters of their strength and their macroseismic field. The data analysis of this catalogue yields new empirical relations for attenuation, which can be applied for the calibration of historical events, modelling of isoseismals and seismic hazard assessment. An appropriate analysis allowed the separation and estimation of the average values of the geometrical spreading, n, and anelastic attenuation factor, c, for the examined area which were found equal to –3.227 ± 0.112 and –0.0033 ± 0.0010. Scaling relations for the focal macroseismic intensity, If, and the epicentral intensity I0, versus the earthquake moment magnitude were also determined for each Balkan country. A gradual decrease of the order of 0.5 to 1 intensity unit is demonstrated for recent (after 1970) earthquakes in Greece. Finally the depths of the examined earthquakes as they robustly determined (error <5 km) on the basis of macroseismic data were found to have small values ( 10 km). However large magnitude earthquakes show higher focal depths ( 25 km), in accordance with an increase of the seismic fault dimensions for such events.  相似文献   

19.
We study the surface deformation associated with the 22 December 1999 earthquake, a moderate sized but damaging event at Ain Temouchent (northwestern Algeria) using Interferometric Satellite Aperture Radar images (InSAR). The mainshock focal mechanism solution indicates reverse faulting with a NE–SW trending rupture comparable to other major seismic events of this section of the Africa–Eurasia plate boundary. Previously, the earthquake fault parameters were, however, poorly known because no aftershocks were precisely determined and no coseismic surface ruptures were observed in the field. Using a pair of ERS data with small baseline and short temporal separation in the ascending orbit we obtained an interferogram that shows the coseismic surface displacement field despite poor coherence. The interferogram measures four fringes and displays an ellipse-shaped lobe with ∼11 cm peak line-of-sight displacement. The elastic modeling using a boundary element method (Poly3Dinv) indicate coseismic slip reaching up to 1 m at 5 km depth on the N 57° E trending, dipping 32° NW Tafna thrust fault. The geodetic estimate of seismic moment is 4.7 × 1017 N m. (Mw 5.7) in is good agreement with seismological results. The elliptical shape of the surface displacement field coincides with the NE–SW trending Berdani fault-related fold. The consistency between the geological observations and InSAR solution shed light on the precise earthquake location and related Tafna fault parameters.  相似文献   

20.
A comparative study of risk assessment methodologies based on macroseismic intensity and response spectrum approaches is presented. To facilitate the comparative study, a spreadsheet-based software tool ‘SeisVARA’ is developed for the estimation of earthquake risk, in which the seismic hazard can be specified either in terms of macroseismic intensity, or peak ground acceleration in combination with the spectral shape and soil amplification model of various earthquake building codes, or in terms of inelastic response spectra using the ‘next generation attenuation relationships’. A comparison of these different approaches is conducted for a typical city in northern India. In addition, the effect of different parameters, e.g., level of PGA, spectral shape, source-site parameters, and soil amplification models, is studied. It is observed that not only the different approaches result in widely varying damage and loss estimates, but also the variation of parameters within a given approach can result in considerable differences.  相似文献   

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