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1.
南极冰盖冰雪质量变化反映了全球气候变化,并且直接影响着全球海平面变化.ICESat测高卫星的主要任务之一就是要确定南北两极冰盖的质量变化情况并评估其对全球海平面变化的影响.本文利用2003年10月至2008年12月的ICESat测高数据,针对南极DEM分辨率有限的特殊性,通过求解坡度改正值,解决重复轨道地面脚点不重合的问题,计算了南极大陆(86°S以北区域,后文所述南极冰盖均不包括86°S以南区域)在这5年里的冰雪质量变化情况,得到东南极冰盖的质量变化为-18±20Gt/a,西南极-26±6Gt/a,南极冰盖的冰雪质量变化为-44±21Gt/a,对全球海平面上升的影响约为0.12mm·a~(-1).解算结果表明,南极冰盖质量亏损主要集中在西南极阿蒙森海岸附近冰川以及东南极波因塞特角区域. 相似文献
2.
Sea ice thickness measurement and its underside morphology analysis using radar penetration in the Arctic Ocean 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Sea ice, as an important component of the Arctic climate system, has drawn significant sci-entific interest. Sea ice thickness and its morphology have dramatic impacts on ocean-atmos- phere-ice interactions[1—4], which directly affect the exchange proces… 相似文献
3.
J. A. Johannessen R. P. Raj J. E. Ø. Nilsen T. Pripp P. Knudsen F. Counillon D. Stammer L. Bertino O. B. Andersen N. Serra N. Koldunov 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(3):661-679
The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and shows significant sensitivity to anthropogenic climate forcing and the ongoing climate change. Accelerated changes in the Arctic are already observed, including elevated air and ocean temperatures, declines of the summer sea ice extent and sea ice thickness influencing the albedo and CO2 exchange, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and increased thawing of surrounding permafrost regions. In turn, the hydrological cycle in the high latitude and Arctic is expected to undergo changes although to date it is challenging to accurately quantify this. Moreover, changes in the temperature and salinity of surface waters in the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas may also influence the flow of dense water through the Denmark Strait, which are found to be a precursor for changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation with a lead time of around 10 years (Hawkins and Sutton in Geophys Res Lett 35:L11603, 2008). Evidently changes in the Arctic and surrounding seas have far reaching influences on regional and global environment and climate variability, thus emphasizing the need for advanced quantitative understanding of the ocean circulation and transport variability in the high latitude and Arctic Ocean. In this respect, this study combines in situ hydrographical data, surface drifter data and direct current meter measurements, with coupled sea ice–ocean models, radar altimeter data and the latest GOCE-based geoid in order to estimate and assess the quality, usefulness and validity of the new GOCE-derived mean dynamic topography for studies of the ocean circulation and transport estimates in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean. 相似文献
4.
Michael A. Rawlins Richard B. Lammers Steve Frolking Balzs M. Fekete Charles J. Vorosmarty 《水文研究》2003,17(13):2521-2539
A terrestrial hydrological model, developed to simulate the high‐latitude water cycle, is described, along with comparisons with observed data across the pan‐Arctic drainage basin. Gridded fields of plant rooting depth, soil characteristics (texture, organic content), vegetation, and daily time series of precipitation and air temperature provide the primary inputs used to derive simulated runoff at a grid resolution of 25 km across the pan‐Arctic. The pan‐Arctic water balance model (P/WBM) includes a simple scheme for simulating daily changes in soil frozen and liquid water amounts, with the thaw–freeze model (TFM) driven by air temperature, modelled soil moisture content, and physiographic data. Climate time series (precipitation and air temperature) are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis project for the period 1980–2001. P/WBM‐generated maximum summer active‐layer thickness estimates differ from a set of observed data by an average of 12 cm at 27 sites in Alaska, with many of the differences within the variability (1σ) seen in field samples. Simulated long‐term annual runoffs are in the range 100 to 400 mm year?1. The highest runoffs are found across northeastern Canada, southern Alaska, and Norway, and lower estimates are noted along the highest latitudes of the terrestrial Arctic in North America and Asia. Good agreement exists between simulated and observed long‐term seasonal (winter, spring, summer–fall) runoff to the ten Arctic sea basins (r = 0·84). Model water budgets are most sensitive to changes in precipitation and air temperature, whereas less affect is noted when other model parameters are altered. Increasing daily precipitation by 25% amplifies annual runoff by 50 to 80% for the largest Arctic drainage basins. Ignoring soil ice by eliminating the TFM sub‐model leads to runoffs that are 7 to 27% lower than the control run. The results of these model sensitivity experiments, along with other uncertainties in both observed validation data and model inputs, emphasize the need to develop improved spatial data sets of key geophysical quantities (particularly climate time series) to estimate terrestrial Arctic hydrological budgets better. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
The atmospheric vertical structure and changed characteristics of boundary layer parameters, as well as their relations with sea ice and temperature changes in the center of Arctic Ocean(80°–88°N) are presented by adopting GPS sounding data obtained by the 4th–6th Arctic expeditions of China and NCEP(National Centre for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data. Obvious differences are observed regarding the tropopause, boundary layer height, temperature inversion, and vertical structure of wind speed and direction in the center Arctic Ocean in the summer of 2012, 2010, and 2014. These differences can be explained by the relations between temperature and changes in sea ice extent in September from 1979 to 2014. In September 2012, the Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 44% an with obvious warming process. In September 2010 and 2014, it decreased by 22.6% and 17% with an obvious cooling process, respectively. A comparison of the two processes shows that sea ice change has a significant influence on the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer. In the recent 30 years, the temperature changes of 1000 and 850 h Pa in the center of the Arctic Ocean have displayed an obvious warming trend and negative correlation with sea ice extent. These changes indicate that the continuous reduction of Arctic sea ice will continue the warming of the troposphere middle layer. 相似文献
6.
2002年发射的GRACE重力卫星为南极冰盖质量平衡提供了一种新的测量方式,但由于南极GIA模型的不确定较大,进而影响GRACE结果的可靠性.本文联合2003—2009年的GRACE和ICESat等数据实现了南极GIA信号的分离,联合方法所分离的GIA不依赖于不确定性很大的冰负荷等假设模型,而是直接基于卫星观测数据估算而来的,具有更大的可靠性.在分离过程中,本文提出了冰流速度加权改正法和GPS球谐拟合改正法对GIA结果进行精化,同时引入了南极GPS观测站的位移数据对分离的GIA进行详细的评估和验证,GPS验证表明经过冰流速度加权和GPS球谐拟合双改正后的GIA结果精度明显得到提高.最后本文利用所分离的GIA对GRACE和ICESat结果进行了改正,得到2003—2009年南极冰盖质量变化的趋势为-66.7±54.5 Gt/a(GRACE)和-77.2±21.5Gt/a(ICESat),相比采用其他的GIA模型,本文的GIA结果使GRACE和ICESat这两种不同观测技术得到的南极冰盖质量变化结果更加趋于一致. 相似文献
7.
The geophysical, thermodynamic and dielectric properties of snow are important state variables that are known to be sensitive to Arctic climate variability and change. Given recent observations of changes in the Arctic physical system (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004), it is important to focus on the processes that give rise to variability in the horizontal, vertical and temporal dimensions of the life‐history of snow on sea ice. The objectives in this study are to present these ‘state’ variables and to investigate the processes that govern variability in the vertical, horizontal and temporal dimension by using a case study over land‐fast first‐year sea ice for the period December 2003 to June 2004. Results from two sampling areas (thin and thick snowpacks) show that differences in snowpack thickness can substantially change the vertical and temporal evolution of snow properties. During the late fall and early winter (cooling period) we measured no significant changes in the physical properties, except for thin snow‐cover salinity, which decreased throughout the period. Fall‐snow desalination was only observed under thin snowpacks with a rate of ?0·12 ppt day?1. Significant changes occurred in the late winter and early spring (warming period), especially for snow grain size. Snow grain kinetic growth of 0·25–0·48 mm·day?1 was measured coincidently with increasing salinity and wetness for both thin and thick snowpacks. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
A new seasonal and annual dataset describing Arctic sea ice extents for 1901–2015 was constructed by individually re-calibrating sea ice data sources from the three Arctic regions (North American, Nordic and Siberian) using the corresponding surface air temperature trends for the pre-satellite era (1901–1978), so that the strong relationship between seasonal sea ice extent and surface air temperature observed for the satellite era (1979-present) also applies to the pre-satellite era. According to this new dataset, the recent period of Arctic sea ice retreat since the 1970s followed a period of sea ice growth after the mid-1940s, which in turn followed a period of sea ice retreat after the 1910s. Arctic sea ice is a key component of the Arctic hydrological cycle, through both its freshwater storage role and its influence on oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Therefore, these new insights have significance for our understanding of Arctic hydrology.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
9.
We investigate helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) inversion schemes applied to synthetic and measured HEM sea ice profiling data. Direct HEM data-to-ice-thickness inversion is compared to three different formal, least squares layered earth inversion algorithms.By making several approximations, it is possible to directly invert a single channel measurement (i.e., the in-phase or quadrature component of a single frequency measurement) to obtain an estimate of sea ice thickness. Measurements from multiple input channels, however, can be used in a layered earth inversion to simultaneously recover several model parameters such as sea ice thickness, sea ice conductivity and sub-ice bathymetry. Synthetic data sets for a particular two-frequency HEM system showed that simple least squares inversion algorithms produce reliable estimates of sea ice thickness in cases where the ice is thicker than 3 m. These methods could also recover acceptable estimates of sea ice thickness when a thin, conductive, partially melted sea ice layer was present, and could determine shallow, sub-ice bathymetry in brackish water. As expected, 1D transformations and inversions of synthetic data for a three-dimensional pressure ridge keel structure contained artifacts, notably broadening of the apparent width of the keel.Prior to inverting a field data set acquired over rather thin (~ 0.5 m) Antarctic sea ice, we found it necessary to recalibrate the phase angle of the measurements using a phasor diagram-based method. Direct transformation of a single channel from the recalibrated data set produced more accurate estimates of sea-ice thickness than formal inversion of multi-channel data. We suggest that the least squares inversion methods are inferior in this situation because of the particular characteristics of the two-frequency HEM system used in this evaluation; the extreme differences in sensitivity of high and low frequency data components, the overall low sensitivity to sea ice conductivity (especially for thin ice), and the partially low signal-to noise ratios of the measurements. The data sets used in this study will be made available to the public to allow alternate inversion approaches to be applied and evaluated. It is suggested that inclusion of parameter bounds and other forms of regularization could help to improve the inversion results. 相似文献
10.
A comparison of the oxygen isotope signal in deep-sea benthic foraminifera with the record of glacio-eustatic sea level for the last 160,000 years reveals that the amplitude of the benthic δ18O records predicts more continental ice volume than appears to be reflected in lowered sea level stands. These differences between the benthic δ18O ice volume estimates and radiometrically-dated records of eustatic sea level are consistent with the presence of a large floating Arctic Ocean ice mass during glacial intervals. The presence of an Arctic Ocean ice sheet during glacial intervals may account for the two climatic modes observed in oxygen isotope records which span the entire Pleistocene. The early Pleistocene (1.8 to 0.9 Myr B.P.) interval is characterized by low-amplitude, high-frequency δ18O fluctuations between glacial and interglacial periods, while the late Pleistocene (0.9 Myr B.P. to present) is characterized by large-amplitude, low-frequency δ18O changes. These two climatic modes can be explained by the initiation of earth orbital conditions favoring the co-occurrence of glacial period Arctic Ocean ice sheets and large continental ice sheets approximately 900,000 years before present. 相似文献
11.
鉴于卫星测高技术在南极周边海域会受到海面浮冰影响,且在利用测高序列分析海平面周期性动态变化时还会受到潮汐周期混叠效应的影响,为此,本文开展了基于GPS和验潮数据联合的南极大陆附近海域从1994-2014年间海平面的绝对变化研究.研究结果显示：在围绕南极大陆及附近海域的15个验潮站中,海平面绝对变化速度最大的是Diego Ramirez验潮站,达到11.10±0.04 mm·a-1;在西南极南极半岛的德雷克海峡,海平面变化最为活跃,变化均值在8.31±0.05 mm·a-1;在东南极,从Syowa站依次到Casey站,海平面的绝对变化速度相对平稳,四个潮位站海平面变化均值为3.35±0.04 mm·a-1;在罗斯冰架右下侧的罗斯岛附近,由于冰川崩解入海导致Scott Base站处的海平面上升速度较快,达到了9.61±0.07 mm·a-1.综合15个验潮站计算结果可得南极半岛德雷克海峡和罗斯岛附近海域,海平面绝对变化速度要高于同期南大洋海平面绝对变化速度,而东南极4个潮位站海平面绝对变化均值则与其相当.这也进一步反映了南极不同海域间海平面变化的差异性,相比较于对南大洋海平面变化的一个整体研究,分区研究海平面变化更具针对性,能更好地了解南极不同区域冰盖、冰架崩解和消融的情况. 相似文献
12.
数字高程模型(DEM)是南极冰盖变化研究的基础,由于现场实测数据的稀缺,卫星测高数据是南极地区构建DEM的'主要数据来源.CryoSat-2是新一代用于极地冰盖、海冰监测的测高卫星,本文利用2012-12-2015-01两个完整周期的CryoSat-2测高数据建立一个新的南极冰盖DEM.坡度是影响卫星测高精度的重要因素之一,利用改进的重定位方法对CryoSat-2数据进行坡度改正.插值方法是影响DEM精度的重要因素,通过对几种常用插值方法的比较,最后选用克里金插值方法对测高数据进行插值,建立了1km分辨率的南极DEM.在88°S以南的CryoSat-2数据空白区,利用南极数字数据库(ADD)的等高线数据对DEM进行填补,建立了全南极冰盖DEM.利用ICESat卫星测高数据、IceBridge航空测高数据以及GPS地面实测数据对新建立的CryoSat-2 DEM进行精度验证,并与Bamber 1 km DEM、ICESat DEM、RAMPv2 DEM以及JLB97 DEM等四种国际上常用的南极DEM进行比较.结果表明:新建立的CryoSat-2 DEM的整体精度约为0.730±8.398 m;在冰弯顶部区域,DEM精度优于1 m;在冰架上,DEM精度约为4 m;在内陆冰盖大部分地区,DEM精度优于10 m;在地形复杂的山区和沿海边缘地区,DEM误差超过150 m. 相似文献
13.
Resolving sea level contributions by identifying fingerprints in time-variable gravity and altimetry
We have studied the ability of the GRACE gravimetry mission and Jason-1 altimetry to resolve ice and glacier induced contributions to sea level rise, by means of a fingerprint method. Here, the signals from ice sheet and land glacier changes, steric changes, glacial isostatic adjustment and terrestrial hydrology are assumed to have fixed spatial patterns. In a joint inversion using GRACE and Jason-1 data the unknown temporal components can then be estimated by least-squares. In total, we estimate temporal components for up to ∼ 80 individual patterns. From a propagation of the full error-covariance from GRACE and a diagonal error-covariance from Jason-1 altimetry we find that: (1) GRACE almost entirely explains the mass related parameters in the joint inversion, (2) an inversion using only Jason-1 data has a marginal ability to estimate the mass related parameters, while the steric parameters have much better formal accuracy. In terms of mean sea level rise the steric patterns have a maximum formal accuracy of 0.01 mm for an 11 week running mean. In general, strong negative error correlations (ρ < − 0.9) exists between the high and low elevation parts of the ice sheet drainage basins, when those are estimated independently. The largest formal errors found are in the order of 40 Gton for small high elevation subbasins in the southern Greenland ice sheet, which are difficult to separate. In a simplified joint inversion, merging high and low elevation basins, we have investigated the ability of the GRACE and Jason-1 data to separate the geocenter motion into a present-day contribution and a contribution from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We find that the GIA related signal is larger than the present-day component with a maximum of −0.71 mm/year in the Z direction. Total geocenter motion rates are found to be −0.28, 0.43, −1.08 mm/year for the X, Y and Z components, respectively. The inversion results have been propagated to the Jason-1 along-track measurements. Over the time period considered, we see that a large part of the variability in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian ocean can be explained by our inversion results. The applied inversion method therefore seems a feasible way to separate steric from mass induced sea level changes. At the same time, the joint inversion would benefit from more advanced parameterizations, which may aid in fitting remaining signal from altimetry. 相似文献
14.
Paolo Cipollini Francisco M. Calafat Svetlana Jevrejeva Angelique Melet Pierre Prandi 《Surveys in Geophysics》2017,38(1):33-57
We examine the issue of sustained measurements of sea level in the coastal zone, first by summarizing the long-term observations from tide gauges, then showing how those are now complemented by improved satellite altimetry products in the coastal ocean. We present some of the progresses in coastal altimetry, both from dedicated reprocessing of the radar waveforms and from the development of improved corrections for the atmospheric effects. This trend towards better altimetric data at the coast comes also from technological innovations such as Ka-band altimetry and SAR altimetry, and we discuss the advantages deriving from the AltiKa Ka-band altimeter and the SIRAL altimeter on CryoSat-2 that can be operated in SAR mode. A case study along the UK coast demonstrates the good agreement between coastal altimetry and tide gauge observations, with root mean square differences as low as 4 cm at many stations, allowing the characterization of the annual cycle of sea level along the UK coasts. Finally, we examine the evolution of the sea level trend from the open to the coastal ocean along the western coast of Africa, comparing standard and coastally improved products. Different products give different sea level trend profiles, so the recommendation is that additional efforts are needed to study sea level trends in the coastal zone from past and present satellite altimeters. Further improvements are expected from more refined processing and screening of data, but in particular from the constant improvements in the geophysical corrections. 相似文献
15.
近海岸区域平均海面高在大地测量学、物理海洋学以及地球物理学研究中具有非常重要的意义.受各种条件的制约和限制,目前卫星测高技术主要应用于深海区域,在近海区域尤其是海岸线附近区域的应用几乎为空白.本文根据ERS-1测高卫星回波波形特征,采用五参数线性模型,由最小二乘拟合方法,对近海区域尤其是靠近海岸线附近的ERS-1测高波形数据进行波形重构.比较波形重构前、后解算平均海面高,表明波形重构技术不仅明显改善了解算近海海面高的精度,而且增加了近海测高海平面的分辨率,并使卫星测高有效观测延伸至海岸线附近.随后,本文利用波形重构后海面高数据构造了近海多年平均海平面,并对我国近海海平面特征进行了初步分析. 相似文献
16.
为研究近期21年(1989—2009年)北极地区海冰变化原因,本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim数据集资料和美国麻省理工学院MITgcm全球海冰-海洋耦合模式开展了不同大气强迫条件下海冰变化的数值模拟研究.研究工作中共设计了6个数值试验,除1个试验全部采用1989—2009年每日4个时次的大气强迫场外,其余5个试验各有一种大气强迫(地表气温、地表大气比湿、向下短波辐射通量、向下长波辐射通量和地表风)采用1989年月平均结果.分析了各模拟试验结果中3月和9月北极地区海冰面积的年际变化特征及最小二乘拟合意义下的线性变化趋势,并以ERA-Interim结果为参照标准对各模拟试验结果进行了对比和检验,以说明不同大气强迫量变率对海冰变化的作用.结果表明:地表气温变率和向下长波辐射通量变率是造成海冰面积减少的主要原因;向下短波辐射通量变率对海冰面积变化影响几乎可以忽略;地表大气比湿变率对海冰面积线性变化趋势影响较小,但对海冰面积年际变化特征有调制作用;地表风变率对海冰季节变化、海冰面积线性变化趋势及年际变化特征均有明显影响,说明提高大气风应力精度是改善海冰数值模拟结果的重要手段. 相似文献
17.
The magnitude and spatial distribution of snow on sea ice are both integral components of the ocean–sea‐ice–atmosphere system. Although there exists a number of algorithms to estimate the snow water equivalent (SWE) on terrestrial surfaces, to date there is no precise method to estimate SWE on sea ice. Physical snow properties and in situ microwave radiometry at 19, 37 and 85 GHz, V and H polarization were collected for a 10‐day period over 20 first‐year sea ice sites. We present and compare the in situ physical, electrical and microwave emission properties of snow over smooth Arctic first‐year sea ice for 19 of the 20 sites sampled. Physical processes creating the observed vertical patterns in the physical and electrical properties are discussed. An algorithm is then developed from the relationship between the SWE and the brightness temperature measured at 37 GHz (55°) H polarization and the air temperature. The multiple regression between these variables is able to account for over 90% of the variability in the measured SWE. This algorithm is validated with a small in situ data set collected during the 1999 field experiment. We then compare our data against the NASA snow thickness algorithm, designed as part of the NASA Earth Enterprise Program. The results indicated a lack of agreement between the NASA algorithm and the algorithm developed here. This lack of agreement is attributed to differences in scale between the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and surface radiometers and to differences in the Antarctic versus Arctic snow physical and electrical properties. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
An assimilated sea ice motion product is used to track ice parcels in several regions of the Arctic over time periods of one day to several weeks during 1992-1993. Motions simulated using a two-dimensional, dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model are combined with motions derived from daily 85 GHz special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) imagery using an optimal interpolation method that minimizes error covariance. Assimilation attenuates the tracking error over the stand-alone model in comparison to buoy trajectories with the same starting location and time. The average 14-day assimilated trajectory's displacement error is as much as 34% lower than the model trajectory, while the RMS direction error is decreased by up to 10 degrees (24%). Assimilation can also yield an estimate of dispersion, which is not retrievable by point buoy observations. An assimilation approach improves estimates of ice drift and has the potential to further the understanding of ice mass flux, freshwater flux, and pollutant transport in the polar regions. 相似文献
19.
Observed reduction in recent sea ice areal extent and thickness has focused attention on the fact that the Arctic marine system appears to be responding to global‐scale climate variability and change. Passive microwave remote‐sensing data are the primary source underpinning these reports, yet problems remain in geophysical inversion of information on ice type and concentration. Uncertainty in sea‐ice concentration (SIC) retrievals is highest in the summer and fall, when water occurs in liquid phase within the snow–sea‐ice system. Of particular scientific interest is the timing and rate of new ice formation due to the control that this form of sea ice has on mass, energy and gas fluxes across the ocean–sea‐ice–atmosphere interface. In this paper we examine the critical fall freeze‐up period using in situ data from a ship‐based and aerial survey programme known as the Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange study combined with microwave and optical Earth observations data. Results show that: (1) the overall physical conditions observed from aerial survey photography were well matched with coincident moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer data and Radarsat ScanSAR imagery; (2) the shortwave albedo was linearly related to old ice concentration derived from survey photography; (3) the three SSM/I SIC algorithms (NASA Team (NT), NASA Team 2 (NT2), and Bootstrap (BT)) showed considerable discrepancies in pixel‐scale comparison with the Radarsat ScanSAR SICs well calibrated by the aerial survey data. The major causes of the discrepancies are attributed to (1) the inherent inability to detect the new thin ice in the NT and BT algorithms, (2) mismatches of the thin‐ice tie point of the NT2 algorithm, and (3) sub‐pixel ambiguity between the thin ice and the mixture of open water and sea ice. These results suggest the need for finer resolution of passive microwave sensors, such as AMSR‐E, to improve the precision of the SSM/I SIC algorithms in the marginal ice zone during early fall freeze‐up. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
北极海冰的急剧消融在近年来欧亚大陆频发的低温事件中扮演着关键角色.秋季北极海冰的偏少对应着冬季欧亚大陆的低温天气,然而二者的联系在年代际和年际两种时间尺度上存在显著区别.本文运用1979—2012年哈德莱中心第一套海冰覆盖率(HadISST1)、欧洲中心(ERA_Interim)的2m温度、风场、海平面气压场、高度场等资料,分别研究了年代际和年际时间尺度上前期秋季北极海冰与欧亚冬季气温的联系.结果表明,欧亚和北极地区(0°—160°E,15°N—90°N)的冬季气温具有显著的年代际和年际变化.在年代际尺度上,温度异常分布在21世纪初由北极冷-大陆暖转为北极暖-大陆冷.这一年代际转折与前期秋季整个北极地区的海冰年代际减少联系密切.秋季北极全区海冰年代际偏少对应冬季欧亚大陆中高纬地区的高压异常,有利于北大西洋的暖湿气流北上和北极的冷空气南侵,造成北极暖-大陆冷的温度分布;在年际时间尺度上,温度异常分布主要由第一模态的年际变化部分和第二模态组成,且第一模态包含的年际变率信号也存在显著的年代际变化.年际尺度上全区北极海冰对欧亚冬季气温的影响远不及位于北冰洋西南边缘的巴伦支海、喀拉海和拉普捷夫海西部(30°E—120°E,75°N—85°N)的关键区海冰影响显著.关键区内海冰的偏少会引发冬季的北大西洋涛动负位相,导致北大西洋吹往欧亚大陆的暖湿气流减弱和欧亚大陆中高纬地区的气温偏低. 相似文献