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1.
Being part of the EU-project NeWater on adaptive water resources management, the Ukrainian Tisa river basin is presented as an example for a participatory study dealing with flood risk, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The Tisa valley is regularly and increasingly faced with hazardous floods at very limited local budgets and high poverty rates. In order to make flood risk management more resilient and better adapted to climate change, scientists and stakeholders applied a set of qualitative and quantitative modelling approaches to characterise prevailing flood risk management, to discover respective vulnerabilities and to identify barriers and options of adaptive capacity. The former were found in the defensive mentality paradigm and the inert and hierarchical structure of present institutions, the latter in, firstly, an enormous potential to link the knowledge of different stakeholders in the region, secondly, a better integration of the individual flood preparedness of households and thirdly, the active involvement of the Church as institution in local flood risk management.  相似文献   

2.
The failure of the Tous dam in 1982 caused one of the most important socio-natural disasters in Spain during the twentieth century. That event triggered a paradigm change in the way disaster risks were perceived and managed, not only locally, but also at multiple levels of governance. Fifteen interviews with relevant stakeholders, content analysis of scientific literature, and review of historical and media accounts indicate that the collapse of the Tous dam had the two major effects. First, it prompted a process of institutional development, which led to the growth, and increase in complexity of the organizations involved both in vertical and horizontal communication of disaster risk reduction. Second, actions taken and experiences gained in dealing with disaster risk reduction in the Tous area were used as a benchmark to develop new strategies, as well as new mechanisms for communication and planning in other territories and other risk domains in Spain. This paper also identified the three main stages in the evolution of disaster risk reduction planning in the area: (1) After the collapse of the Tous dam, disaster risk reduction strategies in Spain focused on improving preparedness in order to reduce short-term risks. (2) Disaster management in the 1990s was strongly influenced by international initiatives, which emphasized the contextualization of risk and the importance in long-term disaster risk reduction measures such as land-use planning. (3) The European Water Framework Directive (2000) and, more recently, the Floods Directive (2007) are exerting a strong influence on the development of a new Spanish flood policy that focuses on preventive measures. However, this process is far from complete and many issues still remain unresolved: dealing with different domains of risk action, integrating concepts of ecological resilience and climate change, and promoting public awareness and effective participation.  相似文献   

3.
国际上水资源综合管理进展   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文
中国近年实施最严格水资源管理制度、全面推行河长制等一系列政策,不断探索完善水资源综合管理的体制和机制。为加强对水资源综合管理的认识,推动中国水资源综合管理的实施,结合国际社会对水资源综合管理认识和实践新成果,主要梳理总结水资源综合管理理念的形成过程、主要组成、实施状况、存在问题和发展趋势。结果显示:(1)随着对传统水资源管理存在分散化等问题的认识,水资源综合管理的理念逐渐形成,并已被国际社会所接受;(2)水资源综合管理实施"综合"途径管理水资源,强调通过完善实施的环境条件、机构框架、具体管理手段和稳健的水基础设施投资机制,实现用水效率、社会公平、环境可持续的均衡;(3)许多国家已把综合管理的理念和措施纳入到其水资源管理政策和体制框架设计中,并在水管理的实践过程中取得新进展;(4)国际上水资源综合管理理念和经验为进一步完善中国水资源管理提供了启示和借鉴;(5)未来水资源综合管理将进一步得到推广实施,从理念到解决具体水问题的实践过程将进一步加强,并呈现多样性和动态性特征。尽管面临由于气候变化影响和水与社会经济交互作用导致的不确定性、复杂性等问题的挑战,随着水资源综合管理的实践和水科学研究进步,水资源管理将进一步采用整体、多学科和可持续的途径,助力可持续发展目标的实现。  相似文献   

4.
This paper introduces a new method to up-scale dependent loss distributions from natural hazards to higher spatial levels, explicitly incorporating their dependency structure over the aggregation process. The method is applied for flood risk in Europe. Based on this “hybrid convolution” approach, flood loss distributions for nearly all European countries are calculated and presented. Such risk-based estimates of extreme event losses are useful for determining suitable risk management strategies on various spatial levels for different risk bearers. The method is not only applicable for natural disaster risk but can be extended for other cases as well, i.e., where comonotonic risks have to be “summed up” without loss of risk information.  相似文献   

5.
Recent developments in the vulnerability literature have contested the use of technical solutions as the sole adaptive strategies to reduce natural hazard impact; this literature emphasizes the need to attend to the wider everyday risks to which people are exposed and that aggravate hazard vulnerability. Using a case study of two flood-prone communities in Puerto Rico, this article supports and enhances that literature by placing floods within a wider context of other risks and determining how everyday risks influence people’s perceptions of and capacity to adapt to floods. Participatory methods are used to elicit the everyday risks that concern community members. The analysis reveals that participants perceive floods as one of their risks, but they see them as neither the most important nor most severe risk in their lives. Instead, they find other concerns—health conditions, family well-being, economic factors, and land tenure—more pressing. These competing risks limit adaptive capacity and increase vulnerability to natural hazards. The results suggest that addressing these multiple risks, mainstreaming flood management and adaptation into the wider context of people’s general well being, and increasing risk perception will strengthen adaptive capacity to present and future floods.  相似文献   

6.
Lixin  Yi  Ke  Cheng  Xiaoying  Cao  Yueling  Sun  Xiaoqing  Cheng  Ye  He 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(2):1223-1248

Flood management consists many aspects such as hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment, exposure assessment, risk assessment, early warning system, damage assessment as well as risk mitigation planning. Conventional flood management are depending on the ground based monitoring of rainfall and river discharge. Many parts of the world are not covered by these sensor networks in one hand and these ground based systems are costly. Most of the tropical countries have high flood risk and low financial and institutional capacity to afford ground based system. While conventional flood management is time and cost intensive, spaceborne remote sensing provides timely and low-cost data in comparison to field observation, and is the obvious choice for most developing countries affected by flooding. Many aspects of flood management are being aided with the advancement of remote sensing technology. More precise and near real time flood detection, lead time in flood early warning system, accurate and advance inputs of hydrological models are now blessed by space technology. Many methods and approaches have been developed to overcome the constrains in the application of spaceborne remote sensing in flood management. Application of satellite remote sensing in flood hazard assessment is well documented, however, the application of space technology in other aspects of the flood management is also promising. Therefore, this review paper focuses on the applicability of spaceborne remote sensing and in most of the aspects in flood management.

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7.
Flood management decision-makers face significant challenges as the climate changes. The perceptions of those affected by floods are critical to the successful implementation of adaptation responses; risk perceptions are affected by how information is communicated and, in turn, perceptions influence expectations on flood risk managers to respond. The links between flood experience, risk perception, and responses by individual households were examined in the Hutt Valley, New Zealand, through a household survey, a workshop and interviews with local government practitioners. Two propositions were tested: (1) that flood experience can influence flood risk perceptions; and (2) that flood experience can stimulate increased risk reduction and adaptation actions where changing climate risk is likely. Perceptions of responsibility for flood management were also examined. The study found that previous flood experience contributes to heightened perception of risk, increased preparedness of households, greater willingness to make household-level changes, greater communication with councils, and more advocacy for spatial planning to complement existing structural protection. Flood-affected households had a stronger preference for central government and communities having flood risk responsibilities, in addition to local government. Those who lacked experience were more likely to be normalised to their prior benign experiences and thus optimistic about flood consequences. These results suggest that harnessing positive aspects of experience and communication of changing risk through engagement strategies could help shift the focus from citizens’ expectation that governments will always provide protection, to a citizen–local government–central government dialogue about the changing character of flood risk and its implications, and build a ‘risk conscious’ society in which ‘sharing and bearing’ is considered desirable.  相似文献   

8.
The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river. We present an example of a rapid flood risk assessment methodology for the Elbe River. A 1D hydraulic routing model is extended by including the effect of planned (regulated and unregulated) and unintended retention (dike breaches) on the peak water levels. We further add an inundation model for dike breaches due to dike overtopping and a macroscale economic approach to assess the flood damage. The flexible approach to model the effects of measures by means of volume storage functions allows for rapid assessment of combinations of retention measures of various proposed dimensions and at multiple locations. The method allows for the comparison of the flood risk at the scale of the main river trajectory, which has not been possible for the Elbe River to date. The model is applied to a series of exemplary flood risk mitigation measures to show the downstream effects and the additive effects of combinations of measures on the flood risk along the river. We further demonstrate the increase in the downstream flood risk resulting from unilateral decisions to increase the dike height at upstream locations. As expected, the results underline the potential effectiveness of increased retention along the river. The effects of controlled retention at the most upstream possible location and largest possible extent generate the most pronounced reduction of average annual damage. As expected, the effect of uncontrolled retention with dike relocations is significantly lower.  相似文献   

9.
In recent years, through the availability of remotely sensed data and other national datasets, it has become possible to conduct national-scale flood risk assessment in England and Wales. The results of this type of risk analysis can be used to inform policy-making and prioritisation of resources for flood management. It can form the starting point for more detailed strategic and local-scale flood risk assessments. The national-scale risk assessment methodology outlined in this paper makes use of information on the location, standard of protection and condition of flood defences in England and Wales, together with datasets of floodplain extent, topography, occupancy and asset values. The flood risk assessment was applied to all of England and Wales in 2002 at which point the expected annual damage from flooding was estimated to be approximately £1 billion. This figure is comparable with records of recent flood damage. The methodology has subsequently been applied to examine the effects of climate and socio-economic change 50 and 80 years in the future. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed – up to 20-fold increase in real terms economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable primarily to a combination of climate change (in particular sea level rise and increasing precipitation in parts of the UK) and increasing economic vulnerability.  相似文献   

10.
This paper focused on the development of a framework for collective water resources management in China to meet the change of drought and flood. Based on the observational data of drought and flood from 1950 to 2009 and the precipitation from 1961 to 2010, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method, the evolutionary characteristic of drought and flood was analyzed. The results showed that drought and flood occurred frequently, simultaneous occurrences of drought and flood and the rapid shift between the two were increasing. The framework for collective strategies responding to drought and flood under this ever-changing environment was presented. A series of potential mitigation, prevention, and adaptation strategies were discussed. These included both planning and implementation side strategies. In regard to planning, the strategies for dealing with drought and flood should be shifted from crisis management to collective management, unifying normal and emergency management. Combination risk zoning of drought and flood should be conducted and collective emergency planning should be formulated. Moreover, the regulation capability of water conservancy projects group should be optimized to the highest possible level. In regard to implementation, based on the water resources collective management, rational water allocation for both normal and extreme value processes should be implemented. The water conservancy project groups for the extreme value process should work together, and the flood limit water level of reservoirs should be controlled dynamically.  相似文献   

11.
The food sovereignty movement proposes a localist approach to meeting food security while delivering broader social, economic and environmental benefits. The movement is spawning multiple local projects of food sovereignty, whereby people are empowered to define their own culturally and environmentally appropriate food systems. As the number of enacted examples increases, the movement is also affecting change at national (and international) levels, with a number of countries creating national strategies or legislation for food sovereignty. We reflect on the challenges created by such scaling up within the existing food system. We propose a focus on issues of institutional interplay in order to identify and critique challenges. We highlight three interplay situations between multiple, diverse enactments of food sovereignty at multiple levels, and between food sovereignty and the broader institutional contexts within which they are embedded.  相似文献   

12.
The Scheldt is a tidal river that originates in France and flows through Belgium and the Netherlands. The tides create significant flood risks in both the Flemish region in Belgium and the Netherlands. Due to sea level rise and economic development, flood risks will increase during this century. This is the main reason for the Flemish government to update its flood risk management plan. For this purpose, the Flemish government requested a cost-benefit analysis of flood protection measures, considering long-term developments. Measures evaluated include a storm surge barrier, dyke heightening and additional floodplains with or without the development of wetlands. Some of these measures affect the flood risk in both countries. As policies concerning the limitation of flood risk differ significantly between the Netherlands and Flanders, distinctive methodologies were used to estimate the impacts of measures on flood risk. A risk-based approach was applied for Flanders by calculating the impacts of flood damage at different levels of recurrence, for the base year (2000) and in case of a sea level rise of 60 cm by 2100. Policy within the Netherlands stipulates a required minimal protection level along the Scheldt against storms with a recurrence period of 1 in 4,000 years. It was estimated how flood protection measures would delay further dyke heightening, which is foreseen as protection levels are presently decreasing due to rising sea levels. Impacts of measures (safety benefits) consist of delays in further dyke heightening. The results illustrate the importance of sea level rise. Flood risks increased fivefolds when a sea level rise of 60 cm was applied. Although more drastic measures such as a storm surge barrier near Antwerp offer more protection for very extreme storms, a combination of dykes and floodplains can offer higher benefits at lower costs.  相似文献   

13.
In this paper, I applied statistical, econometric, and mathematical methodologies to evaluate the conditions required for implementing a publicly supported trans-boundary flood risk management plan in accordance with the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EU). Although this paper adopts a focus on the methodology rather than on solving a specific problem, the Scheldt estuary is used to provide an illustrative case study of this approach. I showed that, apart from some expected minor differences, the Belgians and the Dutch can be considered a relatively homogeneous population. Moreover, I estimated the main determinants of both perceived flood risk (PFR) and willingness to pay (WTP) for a compensation fund by using a linear model and an ordered probit model (based on a double-bounded dichotomous-choice approach), respectively. Some policies appear to be potentially effective: a campaign to inform the general public about evacuation and trauma management could increase WTP by 19 and 21 %, respectively; an information campaign focused on young women could reduce PFR; and a campaign to inform the general public about flood strategies and the need to disregard flood events in the press could reduce PFR by 56 and 54 %, respectively. Finally, I showed that, apart from some expected differences between the values at risk in Belgium and the Netherlands, both individual rationality and overall feasibility conditions are met. Thus, if information campaigns and other measures are designed to account for differences between the Belgians and the Dutch, a publicly supported trans-boundary flood risk management plan can be successfully implemented.  相似文献   

14.
In the last five decades, many informal communities in Accra, Ghana have suffered from annual flood hazards. Residents of these communities appear to have successfully resisted evictions by city authorities; survived flood hazards and poor environmental health conditions. These flood affected households continue to survive with increasing housing and population densities in the face of these annual floods. Are they becoming resilient? Have residents built adaptive capacities through learning experiences from previous flood occurrences and evictions attempts? What has produced and continued to shape their responses to flooding? What can be learned from this supposed grassroots resilience to inform flood management in urban Africa? Using case studies of three informal communities of Glefe, Agbogbloshie and Old Fadama, this paper explores the gradual and evolving adaptive capacities and social resilience to flood hazards among poor urban dwellers. The paper reveals the depth of understanding and embodied nature of flood experiences among affected slum dwellers and how these are gradually being transformed into adaptive capacities and shaping their responses. In the absence of efficient state flood interventions, there are emerging and enduring flood responses and adaptation practices shaped by residents’ social networks, political alliances and sense of place. These responses translates into continuous re-structuring of housing units, construction of communal drains, creation of local evacuation teams and safe havens. Urban policy contributions that can be learned from these emerging grassroots capacities for flood vulnerability management have been proposed.  相似文献   

15.
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions of the world in the next decades with rising flood losses as a consequence. First and foremost, it can be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas into flood plains and the resulting accumulation of assets. For a future-oriented and a more robust flood risk management, it is therefore of importance not only to estimate potential impacts of climate change on the flood hazard, but also to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure due to land use changes. In this study, carried out in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria), various land use scenarios until 2030 were developed by means of a spatially explicit land use model, national spatial planning scenarios and current spatial policies. The combination of the simulated land use patterns with different inundation scenarios enabled us to derive statements about possible future changes in flood-exposed built-up areas. The results indicate that the potential assets at risk depend very much on the selected socioeconomic scenario. The important conditions affecting the potential assets at risk that differ between the scenarios are the demand for new built-up areas as well as on the types of conversions allowed to provide the necessary areas at certain locations. The range of potential changes in flood-exposed residential areas varies from no further change in the most moderate scenario ‘Overall Risk’ to 119 % increase in the most extreme scenario ‘Overall Growth’ (under current spatial policy) and 159 % increase when disregarding current building restrictions.  相似文献   

16.
Water for sustainable development in the 21st century: a global perspective   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Many arid and semi-arid countries are feeling water crisis already at present, and the problem will become more serious in the 21st century. Global water consumption will increase, 10-fold during this century, and the increasing trend will continue well into the 21st century. This Presidential Address to the International Water Reserves Association discusses the reasons for the water crisis, and the major water issues of the 21st century. Among those issues are water conservation and efficient use of water, water pricing and cost recovery, social and environmental considerations, institutional responses to better management, management of international water bodies and proper analytical frameworks.  相似文献   

17.
Landslides represent a major threat to human life, property and the environment. Landslide hazard and risk assessments seek to inform the policy and practice of landslide hazard risk management, for example, by identifying high-risk areas so that appropriate policy and private actions could be taken in terms of preventive and mitigative measures. We examine whether a decentralized risk assessment system leads to better assessment outcomes compared to a centralized risk assessment system. The paper is based on a comparative study of two countries??India and Italy??and their responses to landslide risk. Our results indicate a causal relationship between decentralization and three outcomes. First, decentralization appears to be conducive to the more rapid and more complete assessment of risks in local places, through mapping at an appropriate scale. Second, decentralization appears to foster greater and more transparent communication of risk assessment products, such as maps. Third, decentralization appears to lead to a more open, and at times contentious, public discourse over how to interpret and respond to the information contained in the risk assessments and maps. However, in practice, decentralization faces serious institutional resistance. Our analysis does not preclude other risk assessment outcomes or competing explanations for differences in risk assessment and management outcomes. Rather, it provides an understanding of the direction in which the institutional change may be driven for bringing about more effective risk assessments and their use.  相似文献   

18.
Coastal towns along the coast of Africa are among the most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as flooding and sea level rise. Yet, because coastal conditions in many parts of the region are poorly understood, knowledge on which population groups are at the most risk is less known, particularly in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) of Ghana, where the capital city Accra is located. Without adequate information about the risk levels and why, the implementation of locally appropriate adaptation plans may be less effective. This study enriches our understanding of the levels of flood risks along the coast of GAMA and contributes knowledge to improve understanding of place-specific adaptation plans. The study uses data from a 300-household survey, stakeholder meetings, and interviews with local community leaders to construct an integrated vulnerability index. The index includes seven components made up of: dwelling type; house and house environment; household socioeconomic characteristics; experience and perception of flood risk; household and community flood adaptation strategies; house location, and physical characteristics. Our findings show that exposure to floods, particularly from local flash floods is relatively high in all communities. However, significant differences in sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the communities were observed due to differences in location, socioeconomic characteristics, and perception of risks to flooding and sea level rise. The complexity of factors involved in the determination of local-level vulnerability requires that the implementation of adaptation strategies needs to involve cross-sectorial partnerships, involving local communities, in building a comprehensive multi-risk adaptation strategy.  相似文献   

19.
An interdisciplinary approach is necessary for flood risk assessment. Questions are often raised about which factors should be considered important in assessing the flood risk in an area and how to quantify these factors. This article defines and quantitatively evaluates the flood risk factors that would affect the Day River Flood Diversion Area in the context of integrated flood management in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Expert analysis, in conjunction with field survey and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), is applied to define and quantify parameters (indicators, subcomponents, and components) that contribute to flood risk. Flood duration is found to be the most prominent indicator in determining flood hazard. Residential buildings, population, and pollution are other fairly significant indicators contributing to flood vulnerability from the economic, social, and environmental perspectives, respectively. The study results will be useful in developing comprehensive flood risk maps for policy-makers and responsible authorities. Besides, local residents will also be able to implement suitable measures for reducing flood risk in the study area.  相似文献   

20.
Flooding is a serious hazard across Europe, with over 200 major floods documented in the last two decades. Over this period, flood management has evolved, with a greater responsibility now placed on at-risk communities to understand their risk and take protective action to develop flood resilience. Consequently, communicating flood risk has become an increasingly central part of developing flood resilience. However, research suggests that current risk communications have not resulted in the intended increase in awareness, or behavioural change. This paper explores how current risk communications are used by those at risk, what information users desire and how best this should be presented. We explore these questions through a multi-method participatory experiment, working together with a competency group of local participants in the town of Corbridge, Northumberland, the UK. Our research demonstrates that current risk communications fail to meet user needs for information in the period before a flood event, leaving users unsure of what will happen, or how best to respond. We show that participants want information on when and how a flooding may occur (flood dynamics), so that they can understand their risk and feel in control of their decisions on how to respond. We also present four prototypes which translate these information needs into new approaches to communicating flood risk. Developed by the research participants, these proposals meet their information needs, increase their flood literacy and develop their response capacity. The findings of the research have implications for how we design and develop future flood communications, but also for how we envisage the role of flood communications in developing resilience at a community level.  相似文献   

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