共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2005,25(7-10):473-486
The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of ‘Earthquake damage and Loss Scenarios’. The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of earthquake risk scenario in Tashkent–Uzbekistan and Bishkek–Kyrgyzstan an approach based on spectral displacements is utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to the future developments. 相似文献
2.
Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are considered to be an effective, pragmatic, and viable tool for seismic risk reduction in cities. While standard EEWS approaches focus on the real-time estimation of an earthquake’s location and magnitude, innovative developments in EEWS include the capacity for the rapid assessment of damage. Clearly, for all public authorities that are engaged in coordinating emergency activities during and soon after earthquakes, real-time information about the potential damage distribution within a city is invaluable. In this work, we present a first attempt to design an early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment. In particular, the procedure uses typical real-time information (i.e., P-wave arrival times and early waveforms) derived from a regional seismic network for locating and evaluating the size of an earthquake, information which in turn is exploited for extracting a risk map representing the potential distribution of damage from a dataset of predicted scenarios compiled for the target city. A feasibility study of the procedure is presented for the city of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, which is surrounded by the Kyrgyz seismic network by mimicking the ground motion associated with two historical events that occurred close to Bishkek, namely the 1911 Kemin (M?=?8.2; ±0.2) and the 1885 Belovodsk (M?=?6.9; ±0.5) earthquakes. Various methodologies from previous studies were considered when planning the implementation of the early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment: the Satriano et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 98(3):1482–1494, 2008) approach to real-time earthquake location; the Caprio et al. (Geophys Res Lett 38:L02301, 2011) approach for estimating moment magnitude in real time; the EXSIM method for ground motion simulation (Motazedian and Atkinson, Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005); the Sokolov (Earthquake Spectra 161: 679–694, 2002) approach for estimating intensity from Fourier amplitude spectra; and the Tyagunov et al. (Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 6:573–586, 2006) approach for risk computation. Innovatively, all these methods are jointly applied to assess in real time the seismic risk of a particular target site, namely the city of Bishkek. Finally, the site amplification and vulnerability datasets considered in the proposed methodology are taken from previous studies, i.e., Parolai et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am, 2010) and Bindi et al. (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng, 2011), respectively. 相似文献
3.
Dynamics of interaction between fields of seismicity and surface deformations (Bishkek geodynamic test area) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
G. A. Sobolev N. A. Zakrzhevskaya K. N. Akatova V. G. Gitis A. B. Derendyaev V. D. Bragin N. A. Sycheva S. I. Kuzikov 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2010,46(10):817-838
The spatial-temporal dynamics of surface crustal movements revealed from GPS data is compared with seismicity in the Bishkek
geodynamic test area documented in the regional KNET catalog. The geological information system (GIS) GeoTaim 2.0 is substantially
improved, which allowed variations in seismicity and deformation fields to be analyzed in the 3D raster. It is shown that
seismicity and surface deformations are correlative in the test area. The periods with extreme values of contraction and the
extension rates of the Earth’s surface areas are accompanied by enhanced seismicity and strong earthquakes. The increase in
the spatial gradient of surface crustal movements coincides with changes in the azimuths of compression axes indicated by
mechanisms of earthquakes that occurred at depths of up to 25 km. For a better geological—geophysical interpretation of interactions
between deformation and seismicity fields in the Bishkek geodynamic test area, the spatial system GPS stations and measurement
frequency need substantial improvement. 相似文献
4.
The algorithm for monitoring the magnetotelluric field has been briefly described, and the experimental data, obtained at
the Bishkek geodynamic site, have been analyzed. The regularities in the seasonal behavior of the variations in the field
vertical magnetic component have been revealed. 相似文献
5.
S. I. Kuzikov 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2014,50(6):770-784
The key questions concerning the modern methodical tasks and accuracy of GPS measurements of crustal motion spanning are discussed for a full cycle of the survey from the organization of the field operations to the interpretation of the final results. The presented data rely on the 20-year experience of the geophysicists of the Research Station of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Bishkek (RS RAS) in GPS monitoring at the Geodynamic Proving Ground in Bishkek (GPGB) and in a large part of Central Asia. The comparative characteristics of the constellations of visible GPS and GLONASS satellites are analyzed from the standpoint of their practical application for precise scientific observations of crustal motions. The studies of the contemporary movements of the Earth’s crust by the methods of satellite geodesy generally comprise three stages: (1) organization of the measurement networks and acquisition of the data; (2) data processing; and (3) interpretation of the results. Each stage is associated with its own block of the tasks and problems, and neither is guaranteed against uncertainties and errors which may affect the results, conclusions, and reconstructions. 相似文献
6.
Bojana Petrovic Stefano Parolai Giovanna Pianese S. Umit Dikmen Bolot Moldobekov Sagynbek Orunbaev Roberto Paolucci 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(2):613-641
In this study, the joint deconvolution is applied to recordings of three test cases located in the cities of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Istanbul, Turkey, and Mexico City, Mexico. Each test case consists of a building equipped with sensors and a nearby borehole installation in order to investigate different cases of coupling (impedance contrasts) between the building and the soil by analyzing the wave propagation through the building-soil-layers, and hence resolving the soil–structure-interactions. The three installations considering different dynamic characteristics of buildings and soil, and thus, different building-soil couplings, are investigated. The seismic input (i.e., the part of the wave field containing only the up-going waves after removing all down-going waves) and the part of the wave field that is associated with the waves radiated back from the building are separated by using the constrained deconvolution. The energy being radiated back from the building to the soil has been estimated for the three test cases. The values obtained show that even at great depths (and therefore distances), the amount of wave field radiated back by the building to the soil is significant (e.g., for the Bishkek case, at 145 m depth, 10% of the estimated real input energy is expected to be emitted back from the building; for Istanbul at 50 m depth, the value is also 10–15% of the estimated real input energy while for Mexico City at 45 m depth, it is 25–65% of the estimated real input energy). Such results confirm the active role of buildings in shaping the wave field. 相似文献
7.
The catastrophic nature of seismic risk resides in the fact that a group of structures and infrastructure is simultaneously
excited by spatially correlated seismic loads due to an earthquake. For this, both earthquake-to-earthquake (inter-event)
and site-to-site (intra-event) correlations associated with ground motion prediction equations must be taken into account
in assessing seismic hazard and risk at multiple sites. The consideration of spatial correlation of seismic demand affects
aggregate seismic losses as well as identified scenario seismic events. To investigate such effects quantitatively, a simulation-based
seismic risk model for spatially distributed structures is employed. Analysis results indicate that adequate treatment of
spatial correlation of seismic demand is essential and the probability distribution of aggregate seismic loss can be significantly
different from those based on the assumptions that seismic excitations are not correlated or fully correlated. Furthermore,
the results suggest that identified scenario events by deaggregation in terms of magnitude and distance become more extreme
if the spatial correlation is ignored. 相似文献
8.
AbstractA MIKE SHE model of the Mekong, calibrated and validated for 12 gauging stations, is used to simulate climate change scenarios associated with a 2°C increase in global mean temperature projected by seven general circulation models (GCMs). Impacts of each scenario on the river ecosystem and, hence, uncertainty associated with different GCMs are assessed through an environmental flow method based on the range of variability approach. Ecologically relevant hydrological indicators are evaluated for the baseline and each scenario. Baseline-to-scenario change is assessed against thresholds that define likely risk of ecological impact. They are aggregated into single scores for high and low flows. The results demonstrate considerable inter-GCM differences in risk of change. Uncertainty is larger for low flows, with some GCMs projecting high and medium risk at the majority of locations, and others suggesting widespread no or low risk. Inter-GCM differences occur along the main Mekong, as well as within major tributaries.
Editor Z.W. KundzewiczCitation Thompson, J.R., Laizé, C.L.R., Green, A.J., Acreman, M.C., and Kingston, D.G., 2014. Climate change uncertainty in environmental flows for the Mekong River. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 935–954. 相似文献
9.
Diana J. M. Greenslade Stewart C. R. Allen M. Arthur Simanjuntak 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(6-7):1137-1151
A tsunami scenario database (T2) has recently been developed for use within the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC). This scenario database has proven to be a very useful tool for forecast guidance, issuing of tsunami warnings and general event analysis. In this paper, the T2 scenarios are described, and evaluated by comparing them with observations of sea level from tsunameters for a number of recent tsunami events. In general, the T2 scenario database performs very well in terms of predicting the arrival time of the tsunami and the wave amplitudes at tsunameter locations. 相似文献
10.
Groundwater Modeling with Nonlinear Uncertainty Analyses to Enhance Remediation Design Confidence 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Soil and groundwater contamination are often managed by establishing on‐site cleanup targets within the context of risk assessment or risk management measures. Decision‐makers rely on modeling tools to provide insight; however, it is recognized that all models are subject to uncertainty. This case study compares suggested remediation requirements using a site‐specific numerical model and a standardized analytical tool to evaluate risk to a downgradient wetland receptor posed by on‐site chloride impacts. The base case model, calibrated to observed non‐pumping and pumping conditions, predicts a peak concentration well above regulatory criteria. Remediation scenarios are iteratively evaluated to determine a remediation design that adheres to practical site constraints, while minimizing the potential for risk to the downgradient receptor. A nonlinear uncertainty analysis is applied to each remediation scenario to stochastically evaluate the risk and find a solution that meets the site‐owner risk tolerance, which in this case required a risk‐averse solution. This approach, which couples nonlinear uncertainty analysis with a site‐specific numerical model provides an enhanced level of knowledge to foster informed decision‐making (i.e., risk‐of‐success) and also increases stakeholder confidence in the remediation design. 相似文献
11.
城市震害预测中设定地震的确定问题 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
提出了一个确定震害预测中设定地震的方法,包括：确定贡献量最大的潜在震源区、潜在震源区内贡献量最大的震级档和设定地震的构造位置等。以福建省泉州市为例,获得５０年超赵概率６３％、１０％和２％等３个概率水平下的设定地震。本文给出的设定地震方法纵使了确定论方法和概率论方法的优点,有助于地震危险性分析方法的发展。 相似文献
12.
The possibility of contactless remote estimation of the temperature in the Earth’s interior from surface magnetotelluric (MT) measurements is examined. The neuronet analysis of MT and temperature measurements in the Bishkek geodynamic research area (the Northern Tien Shan) showed that a contactless electromagnetic geothermometer can in principle be realized. An optimal method including MT measurements and treatment of available thermograms is developed. The method minimizes uncertainties of the remote temperature estimation. The use of six to eight thermograms for calibration of electromagnetic data is shown to provide a 12% relative error of prediction, and a priori geological information available for the region under study can reduce this error. Areas of practical application of a contactless electromagnetic geothermometer are outlined. 相似文献
13.
When a scarce water resource is distributed between different users by a Water Resource Management Authority (WRMA), the replenishment of this resource as well as the meeting of users’ demand is subject to considerable uncertainty. Cost optimization and risk management models can assist the WRMA in its decision about striking the balance between the level of target delivery to the users and the level of risk that this delivery will not be met. Addressing the problem as a multi-period dynamic network optimization, the proposed approach is also based on further developments in stochastic programming for scenario optimization. This approach tries to obtain a “robust” decision policy that minimizes the risk of wrong decisions when managing scarce water resources. In the paper we also illustrate two application examples for water resources management problems. 相似文献
14.
15.
16.
In the process of updating existing PSHA maps in Central Asia, a first step is the evaluation of the seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by applying a data driven method. Following the Site Approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (SASHA) [11], the evaluation of the probability of exceedance of any given intensity value over a fixed exposure time, is mainly based on the seismic histories available at different locations without requiring any a-priori assumption about seismic zonation. The effects of earthquakes not included in the seismic history can be accounted by propagating the epicentral information through a Intensity Prediction Equation developed for the analyzed area. In order to comply with existing building codes in the region that use macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, we evaluated the seismic hazard at 2911 localities using a macroseismic catalog composed by 5322 intensity data points relevant to 75 earthquakes in the magnitude range 4.6–8.3. The results show that for most of the investigated area the intensity having a probability of at least 10% to be exceeded in 50 years is VIII. The intensity rises to IX for some area struck by strong earthquakes in the past, like the Chou-Kemin-Chilik fault zone in northern Tien-Shan, between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, or in Gissar range between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. These values are about one intensity unit less than those evaluated in the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Ulomov, The GSHAP Region 7 working group [29]). Moreover, hazard curves have been extracted for the main towns of Central Asia and the results compared with the estimates previously obtained. A good agreement has been found for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) and Dushanbe (Tajikistan), while a lower probability of occurrence of I=VIII has been obtained for Tashkent (Uzbekistan) and a larger one for I=IX in Almaty (Kazakhstan). 相似文献
17.
S. Ullah D. Bindi M. Pittore M. Pilz S. Orunbaev B. Moldobekov S. Parolai 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2013,11(2):385-399
Site response analysis plays an important role in seismic hazard and risk assessment, and in defining the optimal engineering design for civil structures. However, due to increasing urbanization, target areas are often too vast to be covered by standard approaches, resulting in large uncertainties in the spatial variability of the expected ground motion. Here, we propose a method to improve the spatial resolution of ground motion variability in terms of Standard Spectral Ratios (SSRs), using earthquakes recorded at a few selected sites for a relatively short amount of time, and seismic noise data collected over a denser grid, taking advantage of clustering and correlation analysis. The method is applied to Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Using the K-means clustering algorithm, three clusters of site response types have been identified, based on their similarity of SSRs. The cluster’s site responses were adopted for sites where only single station noise measurements were carried out, based on the results of correlation analysis. The spatial variability of the site response correlates well with the main geological features in the area. In particular, variability is noted from south to north, consistent with both the changes in the thickness of the sedimentary cover over the basin and in the Quaternary material outcropping at the surface. This method has therefore the potential to improve the estimation of site effects at the local scale in the future. 相似文献
18.
M. N. Berdichevsky E. Yu. Sokolova Iv. M. Varentsov A. K. Rybin N. V. Baglaenko V. Yu. Batalev N. S. Golubtsova V. E. Matyukov P. Yu. Pushkarev 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2010,46(8):679-697
During the past two decades, at the Research station (Bishkek) more than a hundred magnetotelluric and magnetovariational
soundings were carried out on the Naryn geotraverse that intersects the Tien Shan region from Lake Balkhash to the Tarim Basin
along the 76° E meridian. Integration and complex interpretation of the data of these soundings with improved resolution and
reliability of the geoelectric model of the Central Tien Shan section became an urgent challenge. Our paper presents a complex
of methods for processing and invariant analysis of the electromagnetic data developed for the solution of this problem. Its
application allowed us to validate the choice of the 2D interpretation model for the Naryn Line and to form the adequate ensemble
of the data to be inverted. The developed approaches will also be useful in similar studies in the other mountain regions. 相似文献
19.
O. K. Zakharova V. V. Spichak A. K. Rybin V. Yu. Batalev A. G. Goidina 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2007,43(4):297-303
The paper analyzes the correlation between the electrical conductivity and temperature in the upper crust of the Bishkek geodynamic research area (the Northern Tien Shan). Electrical conductivity profiles constructed from magnetotelluric data and thermograms from the boreholes near magnetotelluric sounding (MTS) points are used for estimations. The correlation analysis of conductivity and temperature profiles to depths of 3–4 km showed that, first, the correlation coefficients do not depend on the distance between the borehole and the nearest MTS point; second, the good correlation between the conductivity and temperature observed for the majority of borehole-MTS point pairs is accounted for by the fact that the study parameters vary with depth in a manner normal for laminated sedimentary rocks; and, third, a low correlation is due to specific features of the geological structure between the borehole and MTS point under consideration. 相似文献
20.
Jige Shen Mazda Biglari ChangBo Jiang HongHai Wu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(8):1089-1096
As radioactive human doses are calculated through food chain and exposure pathways, it is important to take a pathway analysis
to determine all pathway contributions for further radiological environmental risk assessment. A challenge of contaminant
fate and environmental pathway analysis is to handle a large number of environmental components and to assign proper calculation
models to linked component pairs. This paper presents a model template called transfer pathway model template (TPMT) that
stores transfer models to environmental class pairs. When a site-specific calculation scenario is built, a source–receptor
transfer matrix (SRTM) is defined by the scenario. Then the calculation loops through all source–receptor component pairs
in SRTM and apply proper models stored in TPMT to calculate the transfer factors. TPMT can be used as the component pathway
verification template and model allocation template. This structure is used in an environmental risk assessment (ERA) application
called IMPACT that has been applied for a number of nuclear power plants and uranium mines in Canada. 相似文献