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1.
Istanbul is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey. Thirty percent of the population working in industry lives
in the city. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings in the
country is questionable. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard is very high with a 2% annual probability of occurrence
of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the main Marmara fault. These facts make the management of industrial risks imperative for
the reduction of socioeconomic losses. In this paper we present a first-order assessment of earthquake damage to the industry
in Istanbul and raise issues for better characterization and quantification of industrial losses and management of urban industrial
risks.
This paper borrows from the project report entitled ‘Earthquake Risk Assessment for Industrial Facilities in Istanbul’. The
full report can be found at http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/depremmuh.html under the link ‘Research and Applied Projects’. 相似文献
2.
This study proposes a probabilistic methodology for estimating the business interruption loss of industrial sectors as an extension of current methodology. The functional forms and parameters are selected and calibrated based on survey data obtained from businesses located in the inundated area at the time of the 2000 Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan. The Tokai Heavy Rain was a rare event that hit a densely populated and industrialized area. In the estimation of business interruption losses, functional fragility curves and accelerated failure time models are selected to estimate the extent of damage to production capacity and production recovery time. Significant explanatory variables, such as inundation depth, distinct vulnerability, and the resilience characteristics of each sector, as well as the accuracy of fit of the model, are analyzed in the study. The function obtained and the estimated parameters can be utilized as benchmarks in estimating the probabilistic distribution of business interruption losses, especially in the case of urban flood disasters.
相似文献3.
The Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami damaged or destroyed many industrial facilities housing or processing hazardous substances, such as refineries, petrochemical facilities and other types of chemical industry. This showed that also generally well prepared countries are at risk of suffering natural hazard triggered technological (Natech) accidents. An analysis of data collected from open sources and through interviews with authorities was performed to understand the main reasons for the industrial damage and downtime as well as the extent of hazardous-materials releases and the associated impact on society. The analysis of the data set confirmed the findings from other studies with respect to main damage and failure modes, as well as hazardous-materials release paths. In addition, gaps in Natech risk management were identified. Based on the data analysis and interviews lessons learned in support of a more far-reaching Natech risk management are presented. 相似文献
4.
In this paper, we build an event-based seismic hazard assessment and financial analysis model for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan. As we know, the low occurrence rate, tremendous loss and high uncertainty are characteristics of earthquake disasters. To handle the above issues, the model integrates knowledge from many fields including earth science, seismology, geology, risk management, structural engineering, the insurance profession, financial engineering and facility management. The portfolio of data from the site survey indicates that the model can be used to calculate the event losses (including buildings, contents and business interruption losses); furthermore the average annual loss and loss exceeding probabilities also can be calculated. The total earthquake risk cost, which includes earthquake insurance premiums, average annual retained loss and equivalent annual retrofit cost, is defined as an indicator for selection of optimal risk management strategies. 相似文献
5.
A probabilistic model is presented to obtain a realistic estimate of earthquake insurance rates for reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey. The model integrates information on seismic hazard and information on expected earthquake damage on engineering facilities in a systematic way, yielding to estimates of earthquake insurance premiums. In order to demonstrate the application of the proposed probabilistic method, earthquake insurance rates are computed for reinforced concrete buildings constructed in five cities located in different seismic zones of Turkey. The resulting rates are compared with the rates currently charged by the insurance companies. The earthquake insurance rates are observed to be sensitive to the assumptions on seismic hazard and damage probability matrices and to increase significantly with increasing violation of the code requirements. 相似文献
6.
Reconnaissance observations are presented on the building damage caused by the May 19, 2011, Kütahya–Simav earthquake in Western Turkey as well as an overview of strong ground motion data recorded during the earthquake is given. According to Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Turkey, the magnitude of the earthquake is 5.7 in local magnitude scale. Although the earthquake can be regarded as a moderate event when considering its magnitude and strong motion recordings, it caused excessive structural damage to buildings in Simav district and several villages in the near vicinity. During the field investigation, different types of structural damage were observed mainly in the reinforced concrete frame buildings with infill walls and masonry buildings with various types of construction materials. Observed damage resulted from several deficiencies in structural and non-structural components of the buildings. Poor construction materials and workmanship, non-conforming earthquake-resistant design and construction techniques and non-ductile detailing are the main reasons for such an extensive damage, as observed in many past earthquakes in Turkey. 相似文献
7.
Turkey has been severely affected by many natural hazards, in particular earthquakes and floods. Especially over the last two decades, these natural hazards have caused enormous human and economic damage. Although there is a large body of literature on earthquake hazards and risks in Turkey, comparatively little is known about flood hazards and risks. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the severity of flooding in comparison with other natural hazards in Turkey and to analyse the flood patterns by providing an overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses. These will act as a metric for the societal and economic impacts of flood hazards in Turkey. For this purpose, Turkey Disaster Database (TABB) was used for the years 1960–2014. As input for more detailed event analyses, the most severe flood events in Turkey for the same time interval will also be retrieved. Sufficiency of the TABB database to achieve the main aim of the study in terms of data quality and accuracy was also discussed. The TABB database was analysed and reviewed through comparison, mainly with the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), the Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events—Dartmouth Flood Observatory database, news archives and the scientific literature, with a focus on listing the most severe flood event. The comparative review of these data sources reveals big mismatches in the flood data, i.e. the reported number of events, number of affected people and economic loss all differ dramatically. Owing to the fact that the TABB is the only disaster loss database for Turkey, it is important to explore the reasons for the mismatches between TABB and the other sources with regard to aspects of accuracy and data quality. Therefore, biases and fallacies in the TABB loss data are also discussed. The comparative TABB database analyses show that large mismatches between global and national databases can occur. Current global and national databases for monitoring losses from national hazards suffer from a number of limitations, which in turn could lead to misinterpretations of the loss data. Since loss data collection is gaining more and more attention, e.g. in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, this study offers a framework for developing guidelines for the Turkey Disaster Database (TABB), implications on how to standardize national loss databases and implement across the other hazard events in Turkey. 相似文献
8.
Xinyu Jiang Nobuhito Mori Hirokazu Tatano Lijiao Yang Yoko Shibutani 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(1):35-53
This paper estimates property loss and business interruption loss under scenarios of storm surge inundation to explore the economic impact of climate change on Ise Bay, Japan. Scenarios-based analyses are conducted with respect to Typhoon Vera, which caused the most severe storm surge in the recorded history of Japan in 1959. Four different hazard scenarios are chosen from a series of typhoon storm surge inundation simulations: Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the past seawall; Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the current seawall; intensifying Typhoon Vera, but retaining its original tracks; and intensifying Typhoon Vera, but choosing the worst tracks from various possible typhoon tracks. Our economic loss estimation takes advantage of fine geographical scale census and economic census data that enable us to understand the spatial distribution of property loss and business interruption loss as well as identify the most potentially affected areas and business sectors on a sub-city scale. By comparing the property loss and business interruption loss caused by different hazard scenarios, the effect of different seawalls is evaluated and the economic impact of future climate change is estimated. The results indicate that although the current seawall can considerably reduce the scale of losses, climate change can cause Ise Bay to experience more serious storm surge inundation. Moreover, the resulting economic losses would increase significantly owing to a combination of climate change and the worst track scenario. It is, therefore, necessary to consider more countermeasures to adapt to climate change in this area. 相似文献
9.
Stephanie Wegscheider Tobias Schneiderhan Alexander Mager Hendrik Zwenzner Joachim Post Günter Strunz 《Natural Hazards》2013,68(1):181-195
Earthquakes and other sudden onset natural disasters require quick and efficient emergency response. Earth observation (EO) data can make a valuable contribution to emergency response efforts if provided within hours and at the most days after the event. Mechanisms like the International Charter Space and Major Disasters and the European GMES Emergency Response Service provide the necessary basis for an efficient and rapid provision of EO data and damage mapping. This paper provides an overview of earthquake damage assessment methodologies, their potential and their limitations in a rapid mapping context and outlines a methodology for casualty estimation. Two case studies—the 2010 Haiti earthquake and the 2011 Van (Turkey) earthquake—are presented, where DLR’s Center for satellite-based crisis information (ZKI) provided rapid damage maps using a team-based visual interpretation approach. Additionally, the application of a casualty estimation method in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake is outlined. 相似文献
10.
Jiang Xinyu Mori Nobuhito Tatano Hirokazu Yang Lijiao Shibutani Yoko 《Natural Hazards》2015,84(1):35-49
This paper estimates property loss and business interruption loss under scenarios of storm surge inundation to explore the economic impact of climate change on Ise Bay, Japan. Scenarios-based analyses are conducted with respect to Typhoon Vera, which caused the most severe storm surge in the recorded history of Japan in 1959. Four different hazard scenarios are chosen from a series of typhoon storm surge inundation simulations: Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the past seawall; Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the current seawall; intensifying Typhoon Vera, but retaining its original tracks; and intensifying Typhoon Vera, but choosing the worst tracks from various possible typhoon tracks. Our economic loss estimation takes advantage of fine geographical scale census and economic census data that enable us to understand the spatial distribution of property loss and business interruption loss as well as identify the most potentially affected areas and business sectors on a sub-city scale. By comparing the property loss and business interruption loss caused by different hazard scenarios, the effect of different seawalls is evaluated and the economic impact of future climate change is estimated. The results indicate that although the current seawall can considerably reduce the scale of losses, climate change can cause Ise Bay to experience more serious storm surge inundation. Moreover, the resulting economic losses would increase significantly owing to a combination of climate change and the worst track scenario. It is, therefore, necessary to consider more countermeasures to adapt to climate change in this area.
相似文献11.
A probabilistic assessment of the seismic hazard in Turkey 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
12.
Earthquake disaster risk assessment and evaluation for Turkey 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Kasım Armağan Korkmaz 《Environmental Geology》2009,57(2):307-320
Turkey is the one country in which 90% of the buildings are subject to the risk of earthquake disaster. Recent earthquakes
revealed that Turkey’s present residential reinforced-concrete constructions are insufficient in earthquake resistance. Many
of the buildings which collapsed or were severely damaged have been rehabilitated by applying simple methods, whose adequacy
is questionable. As in Japan and the United States, Turkey’s earthquake assessment studies have increased, especially after
earthquakes in 1999, In US, several methodologies and standards, such as Hazard-US (HAZUS) and Applied Technology Council
(ATC) 13-20-21 and 156, provide comprehensive earthquake loss estimation methodology for post-earthquake assessment. This
paper provides post-earthquake assessment and disaster management for Turkey. The main aim of the post-earthquake assessment
discussed is to evaluate loss and estimate damage through disaster management approach. Classification criteria for damage
are essential to determine the situation after an earthquake in both the short and long terms. The methodology includes probabilistic-based
analysis, which considers the magnitude of Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes between 1900 and 2005, for determining the probabilistic seismic
hazard for Turkey. 相似文献
13.
Concern for natural hazard-triggered technological disasters (Natech disasters) in densely populated and industrialized areas
is growing. Residents living in urban areas subject to high natural hazard risk are often unaware of the potential for secondary
disasters such as hazardous materials releases from neighboring industrial facilities, chemical storage warehouses or other
establishments housing hazardous materials. Lessons from previous disasters, such as the Natech disaster during the Kocaeli
earthquake in Turkey in 1999 call for the need to manage low frequency/high consequence events, particularly in today’s densely
populated areas. However, there is little guidance available on how local governments and communities can assess Natech risk.
To add to the problem, local governments often do not have the human or economic resources or expertise to carry out detailed
risk assessments. In this article, we propose a methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas. The
proposed methodology is intended for use by local government officials in consultation with the public. The methodology considers
possible interactions between the various systems in the urban environment: the physical infrastructure (e.g., industrial
plants, lifeline systems, critical facilities), the community (e.g., population exposed), the natural environment (e.g., delicate
ecosystems, river basins), and the risk and emergency management systems (e.g., structural and nonstructural measures). Factors
related to vulnerability and hazard are analyzed and qualitative measures are recommended. Data from hazardous materials releases
during the Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 are used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the
methodology. Limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed as well as future research needs.
相似文献
| Norio OkadaEmail: |
14.
Dogan Gamze Ecemis Ali Serdar Korkmaz Serra Zerrin Arslan Musa Hakan Korkmaz Hasan Husnu 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(1):161-200
A 6.8-magnitude earthquake that occurred on January 24, 2020, has been effective in Turkey’s eastern regions. The earthquake, with recorded peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.292 g, caused the destruction or heavy damage of buildings, especially in the city center of Elaz?? province. The purpose of this paper was to share the results of detailed investigation in the earthquake-stricken area. Additionally, the causes of damages and failures observed in the buildings were compared to those that had occurred in previous earthquakes in Turkey. In this study, the damages observed in especially RC buildings as well as in masonry and rural buildings were summarized, the lessons learned were evaluated, and the results were interpreted with reference to Turkish earthquake codes. In the study, it was particularly emphasized why the building stock underwent such damage even though the buildings were exposed to earthquake acceleration well below the design acceleration values.
相似文献15.
分析了事故的后果和经济损失,详细论述了由于生产活动的中止和人的死亡或劳动能力的丧失而导致的生产活动中劳动力资源损失的计算方法,并应用面向对象的数据库系统Cache′和Delphi开发工具编写了事故经济损失计算程序,以货币形式给出了每个损失点的损失大小并输出可能损失的报告书,为事故管理、安全决策和风险评估提供了科学的依据. 相似文献
16.
The direct damage caused by earthquakes, such as impaired buildings, may interfere with normal business operations and disrupt
the function of the industrial chain. Such economic impacts can be evaluated using the input–output analysis developed by
Leontief. In this paper, two scenario earthquakes in northern Taiwan both with a return period of 475 years—the Hsinchu Hsincheng
and the Yilan Nan-ao earthquakes—are simulated. The results show that the economic impact caused by the Hsincheng earthquake
is greater than that resulting from the Nan-ao earthquake, which should be the major scenario considered for the disaster
reduction plan. The industries affected the most are the manufacturing, food services and entertainment, storage and retail
trade, and public and construction industries. The Nan-ao earthquake causes relatively more losses in the food services and
entertainment industries. Most of the repercussion effects of these industries are in the central and southern parts of Taiwan.
The loss to the manufacturing sector and its repercussion effects are enormous. Therefore, the government should make it a
first priority to encourage the manufacturing sector to implement earthquake mitigations, such as a seismic retrofit, or to
provide a seismic evaluation, which can enable firms to engage in mitigation voluntarily. The measure needed to reduce the
loss in agriculture is that the government can purchase agricultural products in central and southern Taiwan following the
disaster and offer them to survivors in northern Taiwan. 相似文献
17.
Natural Hazards - An earthquake of magnitude 6.9 hit the city of Izmir (Turkey) on 30 October 2020, resulting in 117 deaths (in Turkey) and considerable economic losses. The earthquake also... 相似文献
18.
On June 27, 1998, a moderate earthquake measuring 5.9 on the Richter scale struck the alluvial plains of Cukurova in the Adana-Ceyhan region of Turkey. The earthquake resulted in 145 deaths, about a thousand injuries and significant damage to more than ten thousand structures. The coincidence of the projected location of the release of energy along the earthquake fault with a very vulnerable geological surface formation (the thick alluvial deposits of Ceyhan River containing loose sand layers) resulted in liquefied sediments of substantial thickness and extensive areal distribution. Liquefaction associated ground deformations such as lateral spreading, flow failures, ground fissures and subsidence, sand boils, and slope failures were observed. This paper presents and analyses the geotechnical aspects of this earthquake with the main emphasis on the observed liquefaction and associated ground deformations, together with the earthquake characteristics. The observed liquefaction mechanisms provide valuable information on the seismic response of the alluvial soils covering most of the Cukurova plains, an area of industrial and agricultural importance with more than 2 million inhabitants. The observations from this earthquake also provide us with an opportunity to further improve our understanding of the observed phenomena and their effects that can be expected during other future earthquake events around the world. 相似文献
19.
The financial condition of US Gulf of Mexico recreational-for-hire (RFH) fishing firms post-hurricane damage was examined within the context of the industry’s contribution to the resiliency of coastal socio-ecological systems (SES). Three key financial ratios—return-on-assets, assets turnover ratio, and debt-to-assets ratio—were calculated for 2009 from balance sheets and cash flow statements constructed from surveys of 247 RFH firms operating in the five Gulf states. The ratios were then recalculated using reported damage and operational losses from at least one named storm in the 2004–2008 period and combined with the results of a logistic regression model of profitability loss to assess the resiliency of the RFH industry. Results suggest that RFH firm resiliency was a function of operating class (head, charter, and guide boats), homeport, and the way in which the business was structured. Firms appeared to be the most resilient when they employed smaller vessels in intensively managed operations, perhaps due to their ability to move a vessel out of the path of storms and because their profitability and efficiency advantages allowed for self-insurance against losses. As a result, community contributions to, and benefits from, resiliency in the RFH industry may hinge on the development of more modern port facilities and well-functioning insurance markets. 相似文献
20.
Applying the HAZUS-MH software tool to assess seismic risk in downtown Ottawa,Canada 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
The aim of this paper is to present earthquake loss estimations for a portion of downtown Ottawa, Canada, using the HAZUS-MH
(Hazards United States Multi-Hazard) software tool. The assessment is performed for a scenario earthquake of moment magnitude
6.5, at an epicentral distance of 15 km, occurring during business hours. A level 2 HAZUS-MH analysis was performed where
the building inventory, microzonation studies, and site-specific ground motion hazard maps (2% exceedence probability in 50 years)
were all improved based on local information. All collected data were assembled into a set of standard geodatabases that are
compatible with the HAZUS-MH software using a GIS-specific procedure. The results indicate that the greatest losses are expected
in unreinforced masonry buildings and commercial buildings. Sensitivity studies show that soil classes, the vulnerability
of schools, and the spatial scale of loss estimations are also important factors to take into account. 相似文献