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1.
基于多期数据集的中亚五国土地利用/覆盖变化分析 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
针对目前中亚地区土地利用变化和分布格局方面的信息相对匮乏,现有资料较为陈旧且零散,无法满足中亚生态与环境变化研究需求的现状,利用全球的UMD, DISCover,GLC2000,GlobCover2005和GlobCover2009的5期土地覆被遥感数据集,提取中亚地区长时间序列土地覆被信息。并针对上述4个土地覆被分类系统无法进行直接对比和变化分析的问题,分别将其综合为4类土地覆被类型：耕地、自然植被、水体和其他,以分析近30 a中亚土地利用/土地覆被变化趋势。中亚土地利用类型多样,草地、裸地、农田、灌丛占绝对优势。自前苏联解体以后,20世纪90年代初至2000年期间,耕地面积大幅度减少,至2010年尽管有所恢复,但仍无法达到20世纪90年代初水平。而自然植被表现出了相反的趋势,这说明在此时间段内,由于社会政治制度的变化和市场经济的建立,耕地发生了较大规模的弃耕,弃耕地通常转换为草地、灌丛等自然植被。近10 a由于社会经济条件的变化,前苏联解体后所弃耕的土地又被收复和重新开发为耕地。90年代初至2000年期间,水体呈现先减少后增加的趋势。利用全球基于多期不同信息源获得的中亚土地覆被数据,尽管分类体系不统一,但均可较好地表征当时地表覆被状况。这在一定程度上弥补了中亚地区土地覆被数据不足的现状。通过对耕地、自然植被、水体及其他土地覆被类型进行大类合并,可基本体现中亚土地覆被的宏观特征和变化趋势。 相似文献
2.
中亚地区水问题研究综述 总被引：22，自引：2，他引：20
中亚地区地处内陆干旱区,水资源匮乏,是国际上水问题十分严重的地区。本文收集了自2000年以来近15年的相关文献,从文献数量、研究机构、研究方法和主要水问题等方面,综述国内外中亚地区水问题研究成果。通过对文献分析得出以下认识：① 中亚地区水问题是地理学研究热点之一,中国、德国和美国等国家的研究机构开展了大量研究工作,主要集中在水循环过程对气候变化的响应和流域水环境两个方面,中国在跨界河流管理方面的研究成果相对丰富;② 气温升高与降水增加是中亚地区气候变化的基本特征,受气温升高影响,陆地水储量与河川径流减小趋势明显,水资源日趋短缺;③ 不合理的水资源利用方式,加剧了土壤盐渍化和土地退化,加重了水环境污染,加大了流域水环境的压力;④ 复杂的地缘政治使中亚地区跨界河流管理成为当前国际社会面临的重大难题。从已经获得的成果还可以看出,基础数据获取方法、人口—资源—环境相互关系分析、气候—水文—社会—政治相互作用机制等将是未来中亚地区水问题研究发展的重要方向。 相似文献
3.
近130年来中亚干旱区典型流域气温变化及其影响因子 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
利用中亚干旱区5 大主要典型流域代表性气象站点近130 年逐月实测气温数据,结合线性趋势、Mann-Kenndall 非参数检验和小波分析等方法,研究了各流域气温的多时间尺度特征,并探讨了引起气温变化的可能因素。研究发现,在近130 年来中亚干旱区各主要流域（除阿姆河外）年均气温均呈上升趋势,增温趋势高于全球和周边地区,中亚干旱区气温对全球变化的响应比其他地区更加明显。20 世纪80 年代之后更加明显,并表现出明显的多时间尺度周期振荡特征,这主要是自然外强迫动力作用、气候系统内部变化和人类活动相互叠加的结果,亚洲极涡强度减弱和面积缩小对主要流域气温变化的作用明显,其次是北半球环状模（北极涛动）和青藏高原的影响,而CO2引起的温室气体增温效应在中亚干旱区也不容忽视。气温表现出与布吕克纳周期（BC）、太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）和准2~3 年振荡周期（TBO）等有关的显著周期,可以证实中亚干旱区气温变化与大气环流、海温和太阳活动等密切相关。 相似文献
4.
中亚咸海流域地处全球气候变化的敏感中心,生态环境脆弱、水资源紧缺,过去百年来中亚咸海流域气候、人类活动、生态环境均经历了较为显著的变化,分析中亚咸海流域气候-水-生态-人类活动的关系,对自然与人文相近的新疆可持续发展具有重要的借鉴意义。以最新收集的资料为基础,对比研究近50 a来新疆及近80 a来中亚咸海流域的气温、降水和主要河流的径流变化情况,结合二者水资源开发利用的演变历程,分析气候变化与人类活动对研究区生态环境与持续发展的影响,最后借鉴中亚咸海流域气候变化、人类活动、生态环境的综合关系,讨论气候变化下新疆水资源开发利用的适应性对策。结果表明：近80 a来,新疆与中亚咸海流域气候呈现较为一致的变暖趋势,尤其是20世纪80年代以来,二者绝大部分地区气候呈现“暖干”向“暖湿”转型迹象,河川径流也有不同程度的增加,但由于人类活动规模与强度的迅速、持续增强,研究区生态环境呈现尚未得到有效遏制的恶化趋势。立足于有利的气候时期,强化水资源开发利用管理,提高水资源利用效率和效益,加快关键水源工程建设,完善水资源配置网络体系的建设,是未来一段时期内应对气候变化下新疆水资源开发利用的主要适应性对策。 相似文献
5.
利用CRU月降水资料首先对参与IPCC第五次评估报告（IPCC AR5）的10个CMIP5模式对1951-2005年中亚地区年降水气候平均态、年际变率以及线性趋势等特征参数的模拟能力进行了系统评估,并选取具有较好模拟性能模式的未来预估试验结果作多模式集合平均预估未来50 a（2011-2060年）中亚地区在不同代表性浓度路径下降水量各特征参数的空间分布特征,结果表明：多数模式能够模拟出中亚地区年降水气候平均态、年际变率以及线性趋势的空间分布特征,同时发现中亚地区年降水量在过去50 a整体以轻微增加为主,趋势不显著。根据定量评估结果,从10个模式中选取4个具有较好模拟性能的模式结果做集合平均,同时利用历史回报试验数据进行检验,发现集合平均的模拟结果无论在量级还是高、低值中心的位置和范围与CRU资料非常接近。未来预估结果表明4种排放情景下4模式集合平均的中亚年降水在未来50 a增加较为明显,尤其在中国新疆南部（由低值区转变为高值区）。总体来看,未来50 a中亚降水增加趋势随着RCPs的增加而增加,且降水增加显著的区域随着RCPs的增加而明显增大。 相似文献
6.
Jenny E. Goldstein Laura Graham Sofyan Ansori Yenni Vetrita Andri Thomas Grahame Applegate Andrew P. Vayda Bambang H. Saharjo Mark A. Cochrane 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2020,41(2):190-208
Near-annual landscape-scale fires in Indonesia's peatlands have caused severe air pollution, economic losses, and health impacts for millions of Southeast Asia residents. While the extent of fires across the peatland surface has been widely attributed to widespread peatland drainage for plantation agriculture, fires that transition from surface into sub-surface soil-based fires are the source of the most dangerous air pollution. Yet the mechanisms by which this transition occurs have rarely been considered, particularly in diversely managed landscapes. Integrating physical geography methods, including active fire scene evaluations and hydrological monitoring, with qualitative methods such as retrospective fire scene evaluations and semi-structured interviews, this article discusses how and why sub-surface peat fire transition occurs in an intensively altered peatland ecosystem in Indonesia's Central Kalimantan province. We demonstrate that variable water table levels and flammable surface vegetation (fire fuels) are co-produced socio-political and biophysical phenomena that enable the conditions in which surface fire is likely to transition into peat fire and increase landscape vulnerability to ongoing, uncontrollable annual fires. This localized understanding of peat fire transition counters normative causal narratives of tropical fire such as ‘slash-and-burn’, with implications for the management of new fire regimes in inhabited landscapes. 相似文献
7.
Current, spatially explicit, and high-resolution assessments of population vulnerability to climate change and variability in developing countries can be difficult to create due to lack of data or financial and technical capacity constraints. We propose a comparative, multiple-approach framework to assess the spatial variation of population vulnerability to climatic changes using several high-resolution variables related to climate, topography, and socioeconomic conditions with an objective to detect the spatial variability of climate vulnerability in Nepal. Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change due to frequent climatic hazards and poor socio-economic capacity. We used a climate vulnerability index (CVI) approach to derive climate vulnerability maps at the one-kilometer resolution and test an additive and a principal components-based composite method of data aggregation. In this work, we attempt to answer three questions. 1) How do different methods of assessment inform the spatial variation of the climate vulnerability in Nepal? 2) How do different variables interact to shape climate vulnerability in Nepal? 3) What proportions of the population in Nepal are vulnerable to climatic disasters and why? Our analysis uncovered significant spatial variations in population vulnerability to climate change across Nepal, with the highest vulnerability being experienced by the High Mountain region followed by the regions in the lower elevations. We find that although the lack of adaptive capacity is the biggest cause of population vulnerability to climate change in Nepal, a resilient community is shaped by both biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics. By performing an iterative sensitivity analysis of our thirteen variables both at the aggregate level (nationally) as well as at the more disaggregated (physiographic region) level, we contribute to identifying important, multi-scalar driving factors for vulnerability that can be employed as leverage points for lowering vulnerability at different scales. After performing analyses at multiple regions, we conclude that region-specific variable selection is needed for more detailed assessments and in order to prioritize adaptation strategies at scales that go beyond the hierarchy of administrative divisions. 相似文献
8.
准确评估草地生产力、碳源/碳汇功能,分析气候变化对草地生态系统碳循环的影响,对于草地资源的合理开发和有效保护至关重要。选取对气候变化以及人类干扰高度敏感的中亚干旱区草地生态系统为研究对象,利用Biome-BGC模型,模拟分析其NPP、NEP的年际变化趋势及其空间分布格局。结果显示：（1）1979-2011年中亚地区草地生态系统NPP年平均值为135.6 gC·m-2·a-1,且随着时间的推移呈现出波动下降的趋势,下降速率为0.34 gC·m-2·a-1。（2）NEP的年平均值为-8.3 gC·m-2·a-1,表现为碳源,且该值随着时间的推移呈现出波动上升的趋势,上升速率为0.58 gC·m-2·a-1。（3）NPP高值区域在降水较为丰富的天山山脉附近以及哈萨克斯坦北部。（4）NPP的年际变化与降水量的年际变化趋势基本一致,相关系数为0.52;NPP与温度的相关系数为-0.28,未达到显著相关水平。本研究实现了Biome-BGC模型在中亚干旱区草地生态系统的应用,对评价干旱区草地生态系统碳源/碳汇功能及其在全球碳循环和全球变化中的作用、实现中亚草地生态系统的可持续利用、完善区域和全球碳循环理论体系具有重要意义。 相似文献
9.
为了应对全球气候变化,《巴黎协定》提出各国将以“国家自主贡献”（INDC）的方式参与全球温室气体减排行动,而在“国家自主贡献”排放目标情景下区域降水变化的格局和特征尚不清楚。中亚地区位于欧亚大陆腹地,是中国“一带一路”倡议发展的关键地区。本文研究了中亚地区的降水变化对全球INDC排放的响应,基于参与国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）的33个全球气候模式的模拟。结果表明：在INDC目标情景下,到21世纪末中亚地区的平均年降水量相对现代水平（1985—2005年平均）增加10.6%（4.6%~13.3%）,其中高纬度地区的响应大于低纬度地区。进一步看,中亚地区极端强降水事件随着气候变暖而持续增加,但极端持续干期事件在不同区域呈现不同的变化趋势。考虑极端降水事件相关风险,极端强降水和持续干期事件的人口暴露度在中亚大部分区域都增加,将全球温升控制在较低水平（如2.0 ℃或1.5 ℃）可显著降低暴露度。以上结果有助于增进对未来极端气候事件风险的认识,为中亚这一生态脆弱地区的气候变化的减缓与适应政策提供参考。 相似文献
10.
中国自然生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评估 总被引：29，自引：8，他引：21
生态系统的脆弱性已经成为气候变化影响评估和适应性管理的关键问题。本文介绍和分析了生态系统的脆弱性、敏感性和阈值的概念,中国生态环境的敏感带和脆弱性,脆弱性评估和中国生态系统脆弱分布以及自然生态系统的可持续性和适应减缓对策。自然生态系统对气候变化脆弱性评估仍存在许多问题和不确定性,迫切需要在以下领域开展研究:自主开发新一代气候变化对生态系统影响综合评估模型(特别是双向耦合模型)、加强相关野外长期观测实验、开展适应性与可持续发展示范工程的研究等。 相似文献
11.
区域性的湖泊水位能反映有效降水及气候变化,已成为重建第四纪降水和水量平衡最重要的指标。亚洲分布着几乎全球各种成因类型的湖泊,第四纪湖泊演化在全球第四纪研究中占有重要地位。多年来通过对地貌学、沉积学、生物地球化学和考古学的研究重建了各个区域的湖泊水位变化,并据此建立了湖泊演变数据库,作为研究第四纪亚洲区域气候变化的重要基础。本文介绍湖泊水位气候理论的发展历程,回顾晚第四纪亚洲湖泊水位研究的历史;分析晚第四纪亚洲从西到东不同区域湖泊水位变化历史和地域特征,并根据晚第四纪冰期和间冰期的两个特征期湖泊空间变化特征,从古气候模拟的角度探讨了气候驱动机制下湖泊水位变化的成因。 相似文献
12.
This article reflects upon the use of participatory 3-dimensional mapping (P3DM) for facilitating the collaboration of different castes in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Unequal power relationships amongst upper and lower castes has indeed been identified has a major driver of people's vulnerability to natural hazards, including the negative effects of climate change, in Nepal and elsewhere in South Asia. However, this does not prevent the members of all these castes, including the lowest untouchables, to display significant capacities in facing these natural hazards and changes in climate patterns. It is therefore similarly important to harness those capacities and address the unequal power relationships underpinning vulnerability. Achieving these goals requires fostering dialogue amongst upper and lower castes as well as with other stakeholders of DRR and CCA, e.g. scientists, NGOs, government agencies, which often tend to work with a single caste because it is easier. P3DM provides a platform for such a dialogue as it makes the knowledge of every caste tangible and credible to others. This proves essential in both assessing and planning for reducing the risk of disasters and adapting to climate change. This article particularly documents activities conducted in a small village of the Terai plain of Nepal frequently affected by flooding. 相似文献
13.
Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jing Cheng Tao Hui Jiang Tong Wang Yanjun Zhai Jianqing Cao Lige Su Buda 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(1):68-84
The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development. 相似文献
14.
基于土地利用变化的近18 a新疆沙地动态及其驱动力分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
基于新疆1990—2008年的土地利用变化数据库利用土地利用转移矩阵和土地利用变化状态与趋势指数模型分析新疆沙地的动态,依据沙地的转化方向及转化源探讨新疆沙地变化的驱动力。研究区沙地在1990—2000年呈增加趋势,增加速率为84.40 km2·a-1,草地转换为沙地的面积最大;2000—2008年呈减少趋势, 2000—2005年和2005—2008年减少速率分别为86.98 km2·a-1和118.26 km2·a-1,且主要转换为耕地。沙地面积的增加和减少受气候干湿变化和人类活动控制。同20世纪50—90年代相比,1990—2000年新疆沙地扩张速率降低了近一半,局部荒漠地区生态环境有所改善,原因为大规模的土地开垦与气候的暖湿变化。2000—2008年新疆沙地面积不断减少,原因为土地开垦模式发生着变化、生态建设的较快发展以及气候处于相对暖湿的状态。但一些地区沙化问题仍然存在,新疆干旱脆弱的生态环境本质没有根本改变,依然存在着土地沙漠化的潜在危机。 相似文献
15.
Bianca Mitrică Istvan Bogardi Eugen Mitrică Irena Mocanu Marin Minciună 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2017,71(1):12-29
The article examines the risk of water shortages due to the climate change on Leu-Rotunda Plain, which is part of Oltenia Plain in Romania. The region has been exposed to several extreme climatic phenomena, mostly droughts, which has created several problems related to water quality and quantity. The authors defined climate change scenarios using two regional climate models. Water resources under climate change were estimated by a regional numerical groundwater model covering a deep aquifer. The water demand components were estimated for households, industries, services, and livestock, based on specific socio-economic assumptions. A non-probabilistic risk assessment, using simplified fuzzy sets mathematics, was used to estimate water supply, water demand, and the consequences of water shortages. The results of the study revealed significant vulnerability in the water supply, a limited territorial expansion of sewerage networks, an expected increase in households’ demand, an expected increase in industrial and services water demand, a relatively stable demand for water for livestock farming, and an important water shortage in the study area. The authors conclude by highlighting a set of actions to mitigate the risk of the potential crisis. 相似文献
16.
城市脆弱性研究评述与展望 总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7
当前,脆弱性为可持续性科学研究的热点问题,城市脆弱性是努力实现城市可持续发展急需开展的重要研究内容.基于国内外城市脆弱性研究文献资料的回顾,梳理了城市脆弱性概念、研究分类、分析框架、动力机制和评价方法.目前对城市脆弱性尚未形成统一的概念框架,缺乏完善的评价指标体系,对动力机制与调控的研究不足,缺少对城市耦合系统脆弱性的研究.未来,应在现有城市脆弱性研究基础上,建立综合、可行的评价指标体系,构建综合评价模型,并注重典型区域的城市脆弱性评价,为城市可持续发展提供科学依据. 相似文献
17.
Thomas Birk 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2014,114(1):59-75
This article assesses the vulnerability to climatic and socioeconomic stresses in the Reef Islands, Solomon Islands, an atoll island group in the Southwest Pacific. Climate change and the associated sea-level rise are often seen as the most pressing challenges to atoll communities, yet this study aims at critically re-assessing this view by placing climate in the context of a range of other internal and external stressors affecting local livelihoods, including population growth, inadequate land use practices, and lack of economic potential, as well as external factors such as poorly developed infrastructure, economic marginalization and weak governance of Solomon Islands. Findings suggest that some of these non-climatic stresses are currently – and in the short term – more important determinants of local vulnerability than climate change and sea-level rise. Certainly, these stresses are likely to be exacerbated by different elements of climate change in the short, medium and long term, but generally speaking climate change does not appear to be a major driver of the current changes in the islands. On the basis of these observations, the possible adaptation options, relevant to different time scales, are discussed. 相似文献
18.
近32 a中亚地区气温时空格局分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
中亚地区生态环境脆弱,生态系统对于气候变化的响应非常敏感,但其气候变化的时空格局并不清楚。该区域气象站点分布稀疏、高精度气象数据缺乏,利用单一数据源研究气候变化具有极大的不确定性。因此,结合站点数据和再分析数据探索中亚五国气候变化时空格局具有重要的研究价值。选取31个气象站点数据（OBS）、CRU气象插值数据和CFSR、ERA-Interim和MERRA三套高精度的再分析数据,对中亚地区1980-2011年的年、四季气温的时空格局变化进行分析。研究结果表明：（1） 近32 a中亚年均气温显著升高,增温速率为0.36～0.47 ℃·（10 a）-1,即过去的近32 a中亚地区平均气温升高1.15～1.50 ℃。（2）四季气温变化中春季的增温速率最快（0.71～0.93 ℃·（10 a）-1）,而冬季气温无显著性的变化。（3）中亚中部、南部、西南部、西部地区显著增温,尤其是在1990s后期至2000s前期经历了显著性地增温过程,而中亚其它地区气温无显著变化。 相似文献
19.
“一带一路”沿线国家政治-经济-社会风险综合评估及防控 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
开展“一带一路”沿线国家的风险评估对“五通”目标的实现和“走出去”战略具有重要意义。基于政治、经济和社会三个维度18个指标构建评价体系,对“一带一路”沿线74个国家的综合风险进行评估和排序,运用空间自相关、冷热点分析等剖析了2001—2016年不同风险的时空演变特征,并提出风险防控建议。结果表明：① 2001—2016年,“一带一路”沿线国家综合风险整体呈下降趋势,政治风险变化幅度较小,经济风险经历了“下降-上升-再下降-再上升”的演变过程,社会风险总体呈下降趋势,综合风险波动剧烈的国家主要集中在西亚、欧洲和东南亚;② 2001—2016年,“一带一路”沿线国家政治、经济、社会风险均存在显著的集聚性和区域差异性,高危险和较危险等级国家主要分布在北非、中亚、西亚、南亚和东南亚;③ 政治、经济和社会3个风险子系统存在较显著的相关性,政治风险高的国家往往伴随着较高的经济和社会风险;④ 中国对“一带一路”部分国家的投资存在投资量大与风险等级高并存的“投资悖论”现象。未来应从政府和企业两个层面共同努力,建立动态评级和预警机制,做好风险防控,逐步打造“一带一路”利益共同体、责任共同体和命运共同体。 相似文献
20.
Affected by climate change and policy factors, Kazakhstan is the country with the most severe ecological degradation and grassland conflicts in Central Asia. Therefore, studying the state of grassland carrying resources in Kazakhstan is particularly important for understanding the responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change and human activities. Based on Kazakhstan's remote sensing data and animal husbandry statistics, this study analyzes the patterns of changes in grassland ecosystems in Kazakhstan based on the supply and consumption of these ecosystems. The results show that: 1) From 2003 to 2017, the number of livestock raised in Kazakhstan showed a trend of sustained and steady growth. Due to freezing damage, the scale of livestock farming decreased in 2011, but a spatial difference in the livestock farming structure was not obvious. 2) The fluctuation of grassland supply in Kazakhstan has increased, while the consumption due to animal husbandry has also continued to increase, resulting in an increasing pressure on the grassland carrying capacity. 3) Between 2003 and 2017, the overall grassland carrying status of Kazakhstan have been abundant, but the grassland carrying pressure index has shown a steadily increasing trend, the grassland carrying pressure is growing, and it is mainly determined by grassland productivity. The greater pressure in lower Kyzylorda state, the southern Kazakhstan state of the cultivated land and the northern Kazakhstan state has gradually expanded to include the agro-pastoral zone and the semi-desert zone. 相似文献