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1.
Retrospective validation of the time association of precursors 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Francesco Mulargia 《Geophysical Journal International》1997,131(3):500-504
This paper examines the problems raised by the retrospective association of events, a process which underlies any search for precursors to geophysical phenomena. Association is analysed here with respect to time only, disregarding the spatial component, so the results are more readily applicable to volcanic eruptions than to earthquakes. Two sources of bias are examined, viz. the time lag between the precursor and event series, and the tolerance or time window accepted on that lag, which is also linked to the number of associated events. These parameters are typically chosen a posteriori to minimize the apparent probability of random association in the given series. In general, given different input data, optimal association of the two series will be achieved for different values of these parameters. Thus, any valid system of significance testing must include a step which estimates the effect of retrospectively choosing optimal parameters rather than fixing them in advance. This paper shows that, as long as at least one of the two time-series—either the precursors or the events—is Poissonian, the correction factors for the significance level can be written in a simple closed form. The correction scheme is applied to a proposed association between seismic clusters and flank eruptions of Mount Etna. Although the association appears to be highly significant when assessed using simple standard tests, this significance is not confirmed when the effect of retrospective parameter optimization is taken into account. The key point is that retrospective studies can be investigated using standard techniques, but where such techniques are employed, the threshold for significance of association must be greatly lowered in order to account for the bias due to the optimal choice of parameters. 相似文献
2.
In this paper, the interrelationships between volcanic activity and fluvial events in the Alcantara Valley are investigated. Based on the correlation between the stratigraphy of the NE flank of Mt Etna and subsurface data, the geological and geomorphological evolutions of the valley are reconstructed. New 1:10 000 scale geological mapping shows that the bulk of this sector of the volcano is made up of the Ellittico volcano lava flows, though they are widely covered by the products of the eruptive activity of the last 15 ka. The present-day morphological setting of the Alcantara Valley is the result of two main evolutionary phases initiated during the activity of the Ellittico volcano. Only one lava flow invasion of the valley floor occurred in the first phase. This phenomenon was followed by a long period of erosional processes leading to the entrenchment of the drainage pattern and the erosion of the Ellittico lava flow. About 20–25 ka ago, an important change in the frequency of the lava flow invasions into the valley occurred associated with the final stage of the Ellittico volcano activity marking the beginning of the second phase. During this phase, volcanic processes became predominant with respect to other morphogenetic processes in the Alcantara Valley. Lava flows coming from the NE flank of the Ellittico volcano caused a radical modification of the morphological setting of this area, even though only one lava flow emitted by an eruptive fissure located within the valley partially filled the riverbed. During the eruptive activity of the last 15 ka, the complete filling of the Alcantara Valley floor occurred. In particular, between 15 and 7 ka, a lava flow originated from the Mt Moio scoria cone filled the valley floor for a distance of about 9 km. Following a short period of erosion, an eruptive fissure located within the valley generated a 20–21-km-long lava flow that was channelled along the full extent of the Alcantara Valley and stretches for about 3 km offshore in the Ionian sea. In the last 7 ka, lava flows originating from the NE-Rift zone produced only temporary damming of the riverbed without any important contribution to the filling of the Alcantara Valley. 相似文献
3.
While the eruptive record of Mount Etna is reasonably complete for the past 400 years, the activity of the early and late 1960s, which took place at the summit, is poorly documented in the scientific literature. From 1955 to 1971, the Central and Northeast Craters were the sites of long-lived mild Strombolian and effusive activity, and numerous brief episodes of vigorous eruptive activity, which led to repeated overflows of lava onto the external flanks of the volcano. A reconstruction of the sequence of the more important of these events based on research in largely obscure and nearly inaccessible sources permits a better understanding of the eruption dynamics and rough estimates of erupted volumes and of the changes to the morphology of the summit area. During the first half of 1964, the activity culminated in a series of highly dynamic events at the Central Crater including the opening of a fissure on the E flank of the central summit cone, lava fountains, voluminous tephra emission, prolonged strong activity with continuous lava overflows, and growth of large pyroclastic intracrater cones. Among the most notable processes during this eruption was the breaching of a section of the crater wall, which was caused by lateral pressure of lava ponding within the crater. Comparison with the apparently similar summit activity of 1999 allows us to state that (a) lava overflows from large pit craters at the summit are often accompanied by breaching of the crater walls, which represents a significant hazard to nearby observers, and that (b) eruptive activity in 1999 was much more complex and voluminous than in 1964. For 1960s standards however, the 1964 activity was the most important summit eruption in terms of intensity and output rates for about 100 years, causing profound changes to the summit morphology and obliterating definitively the former Central Crater. 相似文献
4.
大同火山活动的阶段性历史是一个尚未被揭示清楚的地学问题。野外实地考察及室内磁化率、化学成分、粒度和古地磁的测定结果显示：古湖滨处水平层理发育的火山碎屑层存在4个不同倾角的倾斜;古湖近岸处的湖相沉积层中含有4层火山碎屑层;古湖深处的湖相沉积层中出现4个磁化率显著正异常的层位,且这些层位粒度都较粗;古湖岸上的黄土沉积中出现3个磁化率为峰值、Rb/Sr比值为谷值的层位;古湖深处湖相沉积剖面中存在B/M和Jaramillo磁极性界限。据此进一步分析后认为：① 湖相沉积剖面中的磁化率显著正异常层位、黄土沉积中的高磁化率—低Rb/Sr比值层位可能是混入了大量火山灰物质;它们是区域火山活跃期的记录。② 系列沉积剖面特征指示区域火山活动曾经历4个活跃期,每个活跃期期间有多次密集的火山喷发。③ 4个活跃期的年代大约为早于0.90 Ma BP（第一活跃期）、~0.47 Ma BP（第二活跃期）、~0.31 Ma BP（第三活跃期）和~0.09 Ma BP（第四活跃期）;黄土沉积中还记录了区域北部有一个发生于~0.19 Ma BP的活跃期。此外,区域湖相沉积中所记录的4个火山活跃期都出现在湖退时期,平静期出现在湖侵时期。 相似文献
5.
Rivers flowing from glacier-clad Quaternary volcanoes in southwestern British Columbia have high sediment loads and anabranching and braided planforms. Their floodplains aggrade in response to recurrent large landslides on the volcanoes and to advance of glaciers during periods of climate cooling. In this paper, we document channel instability and aggradation during the last 200 years in lower Cheakamus River valley. Cheakamus River derives much of its flow and nearly all of its sediment from the Mount Garibaldi massif, which includes a number of volcanic centres dominated by Mount Garibaldi volcano. Stratigraphic analysis and radiocarbon and dendrochronological dating of recent floodplain sediments at North Vancouver Outdoor School in Cheakamus Valley show that Cheakamus River aggraded its floodplain about 1–2 m and buried a valley-floor forest in the early or mid 1800s. The aggradation was probably caused by a large (ca. 15–25×106 m3) landslide from the flank of Mount Garibaldi, 15 km north of our study site, in 1855 or 1856. Examination of historical aerial photographs dating back to 1947 indicates that channel instability triggered by this event persisted until the river was dyked in the late 1950s. Our observations are consistent with data from many other mountain areas that suggest rivers with large, but highly variable sediment loads may rapidly aggrade their floodplains following a large spike in sediment supply. Channel instability may persist for decades to centuries after the triggering event. 相似文献
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7.
Leonardo Mercatanti 《Geographical review》2013,103(4):486-497
Sicily's uneven geological structure is positioned within a system of tectonic plates, and its very active volcano has always made it prone to disasters. Many Sicilian cities have in fact been destroyed by natural events many times over the centuries. This can certainly be understood negatively as the destruction of entire towns, the emission of volcanic ash, and the mutation of landscapes by a terrifying force have instilled fearful memories in local populations. But from another point of view one must consider the positive elements of Etna. Its beautiful landscapes were a major attraction on the Grand Tour, and its inhabitants have long associated the volcano with the concept of rebirth and fertility. This paper analyzes two age groups of residents in the town of Nicolosi and is a small part of an ongoing research project that is much more complex, involving representative samples of the entire population of several towns around Etna. 相似文献
8.
Magnetic history of a dyke on Mount Etna (Sicily) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
During the 1989 eruption of Mount Etna, two fracture systems, trending c. N45°E and N150°E, opened at the foot of its 3000 m high SE Crater and propagated quickly downslope to distances of ≈3 and 7 km, respectively. The northeastern fracture fed a flank eruption, whereas the southeastern fracture remained dry and offered contrasting volcanological and geophysical evidence of the presence of magma at a shallow depth. During the opening of this non-eruptive fracture system, a differential magnetic network was set up on a short profile across its distant extremity. Initially, the magnetic field did not display any change along the profile between frequent surveys. However, repeated measurements at intervals of about 3 months for two years revealed the slow build-up of a 130 nT anomaly. The anomaly vanishes laterally within 0.2 km of the surface expression of the fracture system. This exceptional set of observations constrains the location and time of cooling of a shallow dyke. The increase in magnetization of the dyke inferred by the rate of growth of the anomaly leads to the interpretation that the dyke was emplaced near the end of the eruption. 相似文献
9.
Gennaro Budetta Daniele Carbone & Filippo Greco 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,138(1):77-88
Gravity changes are presented from a series of field microgravity surveys conducted at Mt Etna between August 1994 and November 1996, a period including the 1995–1996 explosive summit activity. Data were collected along a microgravity network of 69 stations at a monthly to annual sampling rate, depending on each subarray of the network.
Results show that seasonal changes in water level within the volcano may induce gravity changes of up to 20 μgal on Etna's southern slope, and indicate that significant magma movement occurred within and below Etna's edifice between 1994 and 1996. In particular, between September 1994 and October 1995, a mass increase of 2 × 101 0 kg occurred 2000 m beneath the summit craters. Between October 1995 and July 1996 this mass was lost, while another 2 × 101 0 kg was injected at about 1000 m a.s.l. into the 1989 fracture system. From the gravity data alone, it is not possible to distinguish whether the first shallow intrusion (1994–1995) was then injected laterally into the 1989 fracture, or summit activity was fed by the first shallow intrusion, while new magma entered the 1989 fracture system.
While magma was being redistributed within the volcanic edifice, measurements along an E–W-trending profile on the southern slope of the volcano detected some 1.5 × 101 1 kg of magma accumulating 2–3 km below sea level between October 1995 and November 1996. 相似文献
Results show that seasonal changes in water level within the volcano may induce gravity changes of up to 20 μgal on Etna's southern slope, and indicate that significant magma movement occurred within and below Etna's edifice between 1994 and 1996. In particular, between September 1994 and October 1995, a mass increase of 2 × 10
While magma was being redistributed within the volcanic edifice, measurements along an E–W-trending profile on the southern slope of the volcano detected some 1.5 × 10
10.
从旅游产品生命周期理论出发,对我国著名风景名胜区云台山进行实证研究。通过研究云台山景区的主要指标的演变过程,分析探讨了云台山生命周期的发展轨迹。研究结果表明,云台山风景区已经历了旅游产品生命周期的导入期和成长期,目前已步入旅游产品生命周期的成熟阶段,为使其生命周期控制在理想阶段,此时,云台山应在充分发挥自身优势的同时,根据旅游市场变化趋势,通过优化现有产品、整合现有资源、区域合作、开发新产品、开拓新市场、大力发展旅游相关服务等措施提高市场竞争力,延长成熟期。 相似文献
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12.
Mark A Bishop 《Area》2007,39(2):230-241
This paper is an examination of the method of point pattern analysis, its potential and limitations, and a discussion of the patterns of volcano geography for the Mount Gambier volcanic sub-province of southeastern Australia. Two classes of point pattern measure were employed: the centrographic measure of point dispersion and directional bias, and distance-based measures of ordered neighbours. Spatial analysis has shown the distribution and pattern of eruption points to be heterogeneous, anisotropic and not completely spatially random, and offers through the exploration of point dispersion, orientation and pattern, a viewpoint on the geography of a low-volume, basaltic monogenetic volcanic system. 相似文献
13.
Akhmad SolikhinJean-Claude Thouret Avijit GuptaAndy J.L. Harris Soo Chin Liew 《Geomorphology》2012,138(1):364-379
The paper illustrates the application of high-spatial resolution satellite images in interpreting volcanic structures and eruption impacts in the Tengger-Semeru massif in east Java, Indonesia. We use high-spatial resolution images (IKONOS and SPOT 5) and aerial photos in order to analyze the structures of Semeru volcano and map the deposits. Geological and tectonic mapping is based on two DEMs and on the interpretation of aerial photos and four SPOT and IKONOS optical satellite images acquired between 1996 and 2002. We also compared two thermal Surface Kinetic Temperature ASTER images before and after the 2002-2003 eruption in order to delineate and evaluate the impacts of the pyroclastic density currents. Semeru's principal structural features are probably due to the tectonic setting of the volcano. A structural map of the Tengger-Semeru massif shows four groups of faults orientated N40, N160, N75, and N105 to N140. Conspicuous structures, such as the SE-trending horseshoe-shaped scar on Semeru's summit cone, coincide with the N160-trending faults. The direction of minor scars on the east flank parallels the first and second groups of faults. The Semeru composite cone hosts the currently active Jonggring-Seloko vent. This is located on, and buttressed against, the Mahameru edifice at the head of a large scar that may reflect a failure plane at shallow depth. Dipping 35° towards the SE, this failure plane may correspond to a weak basal layer of weathered volcaniclastic rocks of Tertiary age. We suggest that the deformation pattern of Semeru and its large scar may be induced by flank spreading over the weak basal layer of the volcano. It is therefore necessary to consider the potential for flank and summit collapse in the future. The last major eruption took place in December 2002-January 2003, and involved emplacement of block-and-ash flows. We have used the 2003 ASTER Surface Kinetic Temperature image to map the 2002-2003 pyroclastic density current deposits. We have also compared two 10 m-pixel images acquired before and after the event to describe the extent and impact of an estimated volume of 5.45 × 106 m3 of block-and-ash flow deposits. An ash-rich pyroclastic surge escaped from one of the valley-confined block-and ash flows at 5 to 8 km distance from the crater and swept across the forest and tilled land on the SW side of the Bang River Valley. Downvalley, the temperature of the pyroclastic surge decreased and a mud-rich deposit coated the banks of the Bang River Valley. Thus, hazard mitigation at Semeru should combine: (1) continuous monitoring of the eruptive activity through an early-warning system, and (2) continuous remote sensing of the morphological changes in the drainage system due to the impact of frequent pyroclastic density currents and lahars. 相似文献
14.
Analyses of relative P - and S -wave amplitudes of 15 selected earthquakes ( M L <2.3) from a seismic swarm, which occurred in May and June 1994 at the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in South Iceland, reveal similar radiation patterns, a thrust-type double-couple with an additional source component. All focal solutions have nearly vertical T -axes and horizontally oriented P -axes, with E-W-oriented nodal planes. The volume increase corresponding to an isotropic source component is estimated to be in the range of 24 m3 . The temporal and spatial seismic pattern, small magnitude range, focal mechanisms and depth range of the Eyjafjallaökull earthquakes indicate vertical intrusion of magma into a confined region at the northern flank of the volcano. 相似文献
15.
《Basin Research》2018,30(Z1):311-335
The analysis of volcano‐sedimentary infill in sedimentary basins constitutes a challenge for basin analysis and hydrocarbon exploration worldwide. In order to understand the contribution of volcanism to the sedimentary record in rift basins, we study the Jurassic effusive‐explosive volcanic infill of an inverted extensional depocentre at the Neuquén Basin, Argentina. A cause and effect model that evaluates the relationship between volcanism and sedimentation was devised to develop a conceptual model for the tectono‐stratigraphic evolution of this volcanic rift basin. We show how the variations in the volcanism, coupled with the activity of extensional faults, determined the types of volcanic edifices (i.e., composite volcanoes, graben‐calderas, and lava fields). Volcanic edifices controlled the stacking patterns of the volcanic units as well as sedimentary systems. The landform of the volcanic edifices, as well as the styles and scales of the eruptions governed the sedimentary input to the basin, setting the main variables of the sedimentary systems, such as provenance, grain size, transport and deposition and geometry. As a result, the contrasting volcaniclastic input, from higher volcaniclastic input to lower volcaniclastic input, associated with different subsidence patterns, determined the high‐resolution syn‐rift infill patterns of the extensional depocentre. The cause and effect model presented in this study isolates the variables of the volcanic environments that control the sedimentary scenarios. We suggest that, by adjusting the first order input parameters of the model, these cause and effect scenarios could be adapted to similar rift basins, in order to establish predictive facies models with stratigraphic controls, and the impact of volcanism on their stratigraphic records. 相似文献
16.
基于采自柴达木盆地内部牦牛山的祁连圆柏树木样芯,新建采样区域过去2710 a的树轮宽度年表,并计算了器测时期（1957—2017 AD）气象数据与树轮宽度年表的相关系数。结果表明：树轮宽度年表与上一年7月至当年6月降水量变化的相关性最高（r=0.753,n=60,p <0.01）,基于此重建了该区392 BC—2017 AD上一年7月至当年6月的降水量变化。器测时期方差解释量高达64%。重建结果显示,在年代际尺度上存在9个湿润期（106—75 BC、6—39 AD、179—229 AD、581—646 AD、823—914 AD、1026—1095 AD、1378—1414 AD、1567—1609 AD和1985—2017 AD）和7个干旱期（328 BC—297 BC、86—151 AD、694—747 AD、1168—1199AD、1444—1525 AD、1680—1725 AD和1792—1860 AD）,1792—1860 AD是过去2400 a最干旱时期。功率谱分析结果表明,过去2400 a柴达木盆地东北部地区降水量存在2～8 a、40 a、80 a和225 a准周... 相似文献
17.
P. S. Belyanin 《Geography and Natural Resources》2017,38(2):196-203
An analysis is made of the volcanic landscape structure of Mount Kerinci, the highest volcano in South-East Asia. Field observations, remote sensing methods, and also cartographic material were used in obtaining new evidence to gain a more penetrating insight into the characteristics of structure and altitudinal zonation of the landscapes along the equatorial belt that have shaped themselves and are evolving in conditions of intense volcanic activity, equatorial climate and heavy anthropogenic load. The analysis revealed natural and anthropogenic landscape-forming factors that determined the present-day landscape appearance of the Kerinci volcano. Within the boundaries of the volcanic structure, landscapes of the mountain class show the highest diversity of landscape taxa. They are represented largely by slope units. With an increase in altitude, there is an increase in the proportion of landscapes of steep and vertical slopes as well as moderately steep slopes, along with the disappearance of landscapes of smart slopes and valley bottoms. A less diverse landscape structure is characteristic for subclasses of aggraded-denudation plains where there occur only landscapes with bogs and waterlogged meadows predominating. Anthropogenic modifications of landscapes occur mostly within subclasses of smart slopes and aggraded-denudation plains. They are characterized by a predominance of agricultural plants. 相似文献
18.
采用能量色散型X射线荧光光谱分析（EDXRF）对新疆乌苏天山泥火山土壤样品的元素含量进行了测定。采用单指标评价指数法和内梅罗综合指数法,对新疆天山乌苏段火山泥中的重金属的种类和含量进行了研究,结果显示：Cd、As、Cu元素的含量达到土壤环境质量评价的二级标准,Hg、Pb、Cr、Zn、Ni元素的含量达到土壤环境质量评价的一级标准,乌苏天山火山泥综合评价达到二级标准。将火山泥的元素含量与新疆地区不同土质的土壤元素含量进行比较,与干旱区不同省份的土壤元素含量进行比较,分析了火山泥元素组成及含量的成因。 相似文献
19.
Widespread bimodal-calcalkaline magmatism and contemporaneously active faulting reflect the combined effects of late-orogenic collapse and strike-slip faulting during syn-rift development of the late-Variscan Saar-Nahe Basin. The intrabasinal drainage systems experienced major but differing influences from three prominent styles of volcanic extrusives: extensive basic lava flows; localized acidic domes; and widespread pyroclastic units. Sedimentary sections including basic to intermediate lavas show the transformation of pre-eruptive meandering fluvial systems into lacustrine systems following lava eruptions. These relationships are interpreted in terms of damming of the drainage systems by the topographic barriers represented by the basic lavas themselves. Siliciclastic sediments re-entered and ultimately filled the lakes through prograding, small-scale crevasse channel/mouth bar complexes. Uplift associated with the intrusive/extrusive emplacement of acidic domes affected both the accommodation space and the internal topography of the basin. Following an extrusive pulse, each dome collapse caused the progradation of voluminous volcaniclastic aprons onto the surrounding alluvial plain. Locally, the overload by large volumes of unconsolidated detritus converted the regional meandering drainage system into a braided one. The overall duration of acidic dome activity could have been longer than 106 years, but was interrupted by repose periods varying probably between a few hundred years to several thousand years. Pyroclastic activity accompanied dome emplacement and registers their episodic activity in the stratigraphic record. Fine-grained ashes of phreatoplinian eruptions were spread widely within the basin and overloaded streams in the area of fallout. Rapid reworking of huge amounts of unconsolidated material supplied an abundance of volcanic detritus, which tended to fill topographic lows that were usually fault-controlled. The relationships between basin evolution, intrabasinal volcanism and contemporaneously active faulting, identified in the Saar-Nahe Basin, are important. They emphasize and further the understanding of how similar volcanic products in sedimentary basins worldwide impacted on the depositional system. 相似文献
20.
B. Di Lieto G. Saccorotti L. Zuccarello M. La Rocca R. Scarpa 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,169(2):699-705
Using data from two dense array of short period seismometers, we analyse the kinematic properties of volcanic tremor preceding and accompanying the 2004–2005 eruption of Etna Volcano, Italy. Results from slowness analyses indicate the action of at least two distinct sources. The first dominates the pre-eruptive period, and is likely associated with the main plumbing system feeding the Summit and southeast craters. Following the onset of the eruption, secondary directions of wave-arrival encompass the eruptive fissures, located on the lower eastern flank of the southeast crater. Nonetheless, significant energy radiation from this latter source was also occurring prior to the onset of the lava effusion, likely suggesting the presence of a resident magma batch, in agreement with independent petrologic and geochemical data. 相似文献