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1.
Different models are used to evaluate the seashore effects of the tsunami generated by an asteroid impacting the shallow-water plateau in the northwest basin of the Black Sea. The shortest distance between the impact location and the coast is about 185 km. The tsunami’s effects on the coastal regions depend on many factors among which the most important is asteroid size. The tsunami generated by a 250-m asteroid reaches the nearest dry land location in 35 min and needs about 2 h to arrive all over the Black Sea coast. The run-up value is about 2 m high on Turkish and Crimean coasts. In the western Black Sea regions, the wave height is about 3 m. The run-up values strongly depend on bathymetry and topography peculiarities. The run-up values in case of the tsunami generated by a 1,000-m-sized asteroid are up to five to six times larger than in case of the 250-m impactor, depending on location. Differences between the tsunami’s dynamics on coastal regions situated in the proximity of deep water and shallow water, respectively, are outlined. Aspects concerning accidental or deliberate nuclear explosions are briefly referred. Possible social consequences and prevention are shortly discussed.  相似文献   

2.
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3.
The December 26, 2004 Sumatra tsunami caused severe damage at the coasts of the Indian ocean. We report results of a sedimentological study of tsunami run-up parameters and the sediments laid down by the tsunami at the coast of Tamil Nadu, India, and between Malindi and Lamu, Kenya. In India, evidence of three tsunami waves is preserved on the beaches in the form of characteristic debris accumulations. We measured the maximum run-up distance at 580 m and the maximum run-up height at 4.85 m. Flow depth over land was at least 3.5 m. The tsunami deposited an up to 30 cm thick blanket of moderately well to well-sorted coarse and medium sand that overlies older beach deposits or soil with an erosional unconformity. The sand sheet thins inland without a decrease of grain-size. The deposits consist frequently of three layers. The lower one may be cross-bedded with foresets dipping landward and indicating deposition during run-up. The overlying two sand layers are graded or parallel-laminated without indicators of current directions. Thus, it remains undecided whether they formed during run-up or return flow. Thin dark laminae rich in heavy minerals frequently mark the contacts between successive layers. Benthic foraminifera indicate an entrainment of sediment by the tsunami from water depths less than ca. 30 m water depth. On the Indian shelf these depths are present at distances of up to 5 km from the coast. In Kenya only one wave is recorded, which attained a run-up height of 3 m at a run-up distance of ca. 35 m from the tidal water line at the time of the tsunami impact. Only one layer of fine sand was deposited by the tsunami. It consists predominantly of heavy minerals supplied to the sea by a nearby river. The sand layer thins landward with a minor decrease in grain-size. Benthic foraminifera indicate an entrainment of sediment by the tsunami from water depths less than ca. 30 m water depth, reaching down potentially to ca. 80 m. The presence of only one tsunami-related sediment layer in Kenya, but three in India, reflects the impact of only one wave at the coast of Kenya, as opposed to several in India. Grain-size distributions in the Indian and Kenyan deposits are mostly normal to slightly positively skewed and indicate that the detritus was entrained by the tsunami from well sorted pre-tsunami deposits in nearshore, swash zone and beach environments.  相似文献   

4.
N. Shuto 《Natural Hazards》1991,4(2-3):171-191
Hindcasting of a tsunami by numerical simulations is a process of lengthy and complicated deductions, knowing only the final results such as run-up heights and tide records, both of which are possibly biased due to an insufficient number of records and due to hydraulic and mechanical limitation of tide gauges. There are many sources of error. The initial profile, determined with seismic data, can even be different from the actual tsunami profile. The numerical scheme introduces errors. Nonlinearity near and on land requires an appropriate selection of equations. Taking these facts into account, it should be noted that numerical simulations produce satisfactory information for practical use, because the final error is usually within 15% as far as the maximum run-up height is concerned.The state-of-the-art of tsunami numerical simulations is critically summarized from generation to run-up. Problems in the near future are also stated. Fruitful application of computer graphics is suggested.  相似文献   

5.
The east coast of Tamil Nadu, particularly Chennai–Nagapattinam was worstly affected by the 2004 tsunami. Run-up shows remarkable variation of 2–8 m with maximum at Cuddalore port and minimum at Marina beach. Factors like width of dislocation, source distance, orientation of the coastline, and bathymetry guide tsunami surge. While most of the parameters are similar in characteristics for the entire coast, it is presumed that variation in bathymetry have played an imperative role in guiding run-up. Based on gradient bathymetry, up to 50 km off the coast was classified into five classes, viz shallow, moderate, and steep continental slope and continental shelf. Statistical analysis was performed between offshore bathymetry and run-up. The results clearly indicate that moderate slopes have guided tsunami to attain maximum height. While steeper slope have acted as barriers and gentle slopes have shoaled tsunami surge resulting in reduced run-up height. The study offers early but potentially meaningful guidance on the role of bathymetry on run-up.  相似文献   

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7.
The 2004 tsunami that struck the Sumatra coast gave a warning sign to Malaysia that it is no longer regarded as safe from a future tsunami attack. Since the event, the Malaysian Government has formulated its plan of action by developing an integrated tsunami vulnerability assessment technique to determine the vulnerability levels of each sector along the 520-km-long coastline of the north-west coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The scope of assessment is focused on the vulnerability of the physical characteristics of the coastal area, and the vulnerability of the built environment in the area that includes building structures and infrastructures. The assessment was conducted in three distinct stages which stretched across from a macro-scale assessment to several local-scale and finally a micro-scale assessment. On a macro-scale assessment, Tsunami Impact Classification Maps were constructed based on the results of the tsunami propagation modelling of the various tsunami source scenarios. At this stage, highly impacted areas were selected for an assessment of the local hazards in the form of local flood maps based on the inundation modelling output. Tsunami heights and flood depths obtained from these maps were then used to produce the Tsunami Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) maps. These maps recognize sectors within the selected areas that are highly vulnerable to a maximum tsunami run-up and flood event. The final stage is the development of the Structural Vulnerability Index (SVI) maps, which may qualitatively and quantitatively capture the physical and economic resources that are in the tsunami inundation zone during the worst-case scenario event. The results of the assessment in the form of GIS-based Tsunami-prone Vulnerability Index (PVI and SVI) maps are able to differentiate between the various levels of vulnerability, based on the tsunami height and inundation, the various levels of impact severity towards existing building structures, property and land use, and also indicate the resources and human settlements within the study area. Most importantly, the maps could help planners to establish a zoning scheme for potential coastline development based on its sensitivity to tsunami. As a result, some recommendations on evacuation routes and tsunami shelters in the potentially affected areas were also proposed to the Government as a tool for relief agencies to plan for safe evacuation.  相似文献   

8.
The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami motivated an analysis of the potential for great tsunamis in Hawai‘i that significantly exceed the historical record. The largest potential tsunamis that may impact the state from distant, Mw 9 earthquakes—as forecast by two independent tsunami models—originate in the Eastern Aleutian Islands. This analysis is the basis for creating an extreme tsunami evacuation zone, updating prior zones based only on historical tsunami inundation. We first validate the methodology by corroborating that the largest historical tsunami in 1946 is consistent with the seismologically determined earthquake source and observed historical tsunami amplitudes in Hawai‘i. Using prior source characteristics of Mw 9 earthquakes (fault area, slip, and distribution), we analyze parametrically the range of Aleutian–Alaska earthquake sources that produce the most extreme tsunami events in Hawai‘i. Key findings include: (1) An Mw 8.6 ± 0.1 1946 Aleutian earthquake source fits Hawai‘i tsunami run-up/inundation observations, (2) for the 40 scenarios considered here, maximal tsunami inundations everywhere in the Hawaiian Islands cannot be generated by a single large earthquake, (3) depending on location, the largest inundations may occur for either earthquakes with the largest slip at the trench, or those with broad faulting over an extended area, (4) these extremes are shown to correlate with the frequency content (wavelength) of the tsunami, (5) highly variable slip along the fault strike has only a minor influence on inundation at these tele-tsunami distances, and (6) for a given maximum average fault slip, increasing the fault area does not generally produce greater run-up, as the additional wave energy enhances longer wavelengths, with a modest effect on inundation.  相似文献   

9.
Pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunami hazards typically focuses on current land-cover conditions and population distributions. To examine how post-disaster redevelopment may influence the evacuation potential of at-risk populations to future threats, we modeled pedestrian travel times to safety in Seward, Alaska, based on conditions before the 1964 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster and on modern conditions. Anisotropic, path distance modeling is conducted to estimate travel times to safety during the 1964 event and in modern Seward, and results are merged with various population data, including the location and number of residents, employees, public venues, and dependent care facilities. Results suggest that modeled travel time estimates conform well to the fatality patterns of the 1964 event and that evacuation travel times have increased in modern Seward due to the relocation and expansion of port and harbor facilities after the disaster. The majority of individuals threatened by tsunamis today in Seward are employee, customer, and tourist populations, rather than residents in their homes. Modern evacuation travel times to safety for the majority of the region are less than wave arrival times for future tectonic tsunamis but greater than arrival times for landslide-related tsunamis. Evacuation travel times will likely be higher in the winter time, when the presence of snow may constrain evacuations to roads.  相似文献   

10.
Devastating tsunami waves can change the coastal morphology considerably. The effects of vegetation to coastal morphodynamics have been of primary interest for decades, because of their role in coastal protection and ecological environment. The damping of wave and impact of beach evolution are the two significant contributions on emerged vegetation. However, the laboratory study of tsunami erosion and deposition under protection of coastal vegetation was less understood compared to tsunami run-up and tsunami inundation. A set of laboratory experiments were reported in this study on changes of size-selective sandy beach profile under the protection of rigid emergent vegetation. The total of fifteen experiments was carried out in a wave flume including two initial profiles (with vegetation and none vegetation), three different wave conditions and four forest densities. The experiments show that rigid emergent vegetation changes the depth and location of tsunami deposition and erosion in sandy beach. The dimensionless numbers were derived to characterize the cross-shore beach profile response under the protection of rigid emergent vegetation. These parameters were written as a dimensionless group, and based upon this present experimental datum, the empirical equations were developed. The study reveals the internal connection among tsunami deposition and erosion, wave height and forest density. The findings of this study have the potential to assist the tsunami hazards prevention and mitigation.  相似文献   

11.
In the present study, laboratory experiments were conducted to validate the applicability of a numerical model based on one-dimensional nonlinear long-wave equations. The model includes drag and inertia resistance of trees to tsunami flow and porosity between trees and a simplified forest in a wave channel. It was confirmed that the water surface elevation and flow velocity by the numerical simulations agree well with the experimental results for various forest conditions of width and tree density. Further, the numerical model was applied to prototype conditions of a coastal forest of Pandanus odoratissimus to investigate the effects of forest conditions (width and tree density) and incident tsunami conditions (period and height) on run-up height and potential tsunami force. The modeling results were represented in curve-fit equations with the aim of providing simplified formulae for designing coastal forest against tsunamis. The run-up height and potential tsunami forces calculated by the curve-fit formulae and the numerical model agreed within ± 10% error.  相似文献   

12.
Geological evidence of severe tsunami inundation has been discovered in northern Japan. In the dune fields of Shimokita, in northernmost Tohoku, we have found two distinctive sand layers that are tsunami deposits. The run-up height of >20 m and inland inundation of at least 1.4 km are notably larger than any known historical case in Japan. The tsunami-genic earthquake that resulted in these deposits is thought to have taken place in the Kuril Forearc-Trench system nearly 700 years ago. The recurrence interval of major tsunamis originating in the Kuril subduction zone is about 400 years. Given that the most recent unusually large earthquake took place in AD 1611 (corresponding to the Keicho earthquake tsunami), the findings presented here increase the potential and hazard for an outsized tsunami striking the Pacific coast of northern Japan.  相似文献   

13.
The tsunami run-up, inundation and damage pattern observed along the coast of Tamilnadu (India) during the deadliest Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004 is documented in this paper. The tsunami caused severe damage and claimed many victims in the coastal areas of eleven countries, bordering the Indian Ocean. Along the coast of Indian mainland, the damage was caused by the tsunami only. Largest tsunami run-up and inundation was observed along the coast of Nagapattinam district and was about 10–12 m and 3.0 km, respectively. The measured inundation data were strongly scattered in direct relationship to the morphology of the seashore and the tsunami run-up. Lowest tsunami run-up and inundation was measured along the coast of Thanjavur, Puddukkotai and Ramnathpuram districts of Tamilnadu in the Palk Strait. The presence of shadow of Sri Lanka, the interferences of direct/receded waves with the reflected waves from Sri Lanka and Maldive Islands and variation in the width of continental shelf were the main cause of large variation in tsunami run-up along the coast of Tamilnadu.  相似文献   

14.
Coastal ecosystems such as mangroves fringing tropical coastlines have been recognized as natural protectors of the coastal areas against destructive attack of a tsunami. In this paper, the authors aim to investigate the interaction of a tsunami wave on a typical mangrove forest and to determine its performance in reducing the run-up. A laboratory experiment using a hydraulic flume with a mangrove forest model was carried out in which tests were conducted by varying the vegetation widths of 0, 1, 2 and 3?m and average densities of 8, 6 and 4 trees per 100?cm2 using a scale ratio of 1:100. Two conditions of water levels were considered in the experiments at several tsunami wave heights between 2.4 and 14?cm. The dam break method used in the experiments produced two types of waves. At low water condition, a bore was developed and subsequently, a solitary wave was produced during high water. The results of the experiments showed that in general, vegetation widths and densities demonstrate a dampening effect on tsunami run-up. A larger vegetation width was found to be more effective in dissipating the wave energy. The first 1?m width of mangrove forest could reduce 23?C32?% during high water and 31?C36?% during low water. Increasing the mangrove forest width to 2 and 3?m could further increase the average percentage of run-up reduction by 39?C50?% during high water and 34?C41?% during low water condition. It was also observed that densities of the mangrove forest do not influence the run-up reduction as significantly as the forest widths. For mangrove forest densities to be significantly enough to reduce more tsunami run-up, an additional density of 4 trees/100?m2 needs to be provided. The experiments also showed that mangrove roots are more effective in reducing the run-up compared to the trunks and canopies. The experiments managed to compare and present the usefulness of mangrove forests in dissipating wave energy and results produced are beneficial for initiating design guidelines in determining setback limits or buffer zones for development projects in mangrove areas.  相似文献   

15.
The Holocene Storegga Slide tsunami in the United Kingdom   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
All currently known sites in the United Kingdom with evidence for the Holocene Storegga Slide tsunami are described. Information on the altitude, distribution, stratigraphical context, age, particle size profile and microfossil characteristics of the deposits is presented. The tsunami involved a greater area than previously described, reaching a coastline over 600 km long. The ubiquitous sand layer which forms the main deposit associated with the event is shown to exhibit a consistent morphology and a particle size profile marked by fining-upwards sequences. An analysis of new and previously published radiocarbon dates indicates that from evidence in the United Kingdom, the event took place sometime around 7100 radiocarbon years BP (7900 calibrated years BP). A new isobase model for mainland Scotland and adjacent areas, providing a preliminary estimate of land uplift since the tsunami, is presented. The model estimates contemporary sea surface level offshore at 14 m below the present day mean high water spring tides. Tsunami sediment run-up is greatest in inlets, where it reaches at least 25 m on Shetland and at least 5 m along the mainland coastline to the south, and run-up of the tsunami would have exceeded these values. The tsunami sediments identified here are considered particularly valuable as a synchronous marker horizon.  相似文献   

16.
黄河三峡库区的涌浪灾害风险不容忽视,经验公式是宜优先考虑的涌浪快捷评价方法.对黄河三峡焦家崖头2012年2月7日的黄土滑坡和涌浪进行调查,分析了黄土滑坡及涌浪的特征.采用9种涌浪经典计算公式,计算了涌浪的初始浪高、对岸爬高等特征参数.与调查结果对比表明,采用美国土木工程师协会推荐法、水科院算法、Huber and Hager模型和潘家铮算法获取的焦家崖头黄土滑坡诱发的涌浪特征参数均接近实际,其确定的校正系数分别为2.14、1.92、0.6和0.66,对比考虑安全性和经济性后推荐采用潘家铮算法预测黄河三峡的涌浪.  相似文献   

17.
This paper presents laboratory experiments and numerical simulations of effects of submerged obstacles on tsunami-like solitary wave and its run-up. This study was carried out for the breaking and non-breaking solitary waves on 1:19.85 uniform slope which contains a submerged obstacle. New laboratory experiments are performed to describe the mitigation of tsunami amplitude and run-up under the effect of submerged obstacles. We are based on experimental results obtained to validate the numerical model. The numerical modeling using COULWAVE aims essentially to show the effect of the obstacle on the shape of solitary wave and the limit of this effect. Using a multiple nonlinear regression, we have determined a model to estimate height of run-up according to the amplitude of the wave and the obstacle peak depth.  相似文献   

18.
Data for tsunamigenic earthquakes and observed tsunami run-up are used to estimate tsunami-risk for the coasts of Peru and northern Chile for zones bounded by 5–35° S latitude. Tsunamigenic earthquake estimates yield magnitudes of 8.52, 8.64, and 8.73 for recurrence periods of 50, 100, and 200 years, respectively. Based on three different empirical relations between earthquake magnitudes and tsunamis, we estimate expected tsunami wave heights for various return periods. The average heights were 11.2 m (50 years), 13.7 m (100 years), and 15.9 m (200 years), while the maximum height values (obtained by Iidas method) were: 13.9, 17.3, and 20.4 m, respectively. Both the averaged and maximum seismological estimates of tsunami wave heights for this region are significantly smaller than the actually observed tsunami run-up of 24–28 m, for the major events of 1586, 1724, 1746, 1835, and 1877. Based directly on tsunami run-up data, we estimate tsunami wave heights of 13 m for a 50-year return period and 25 m for a 100-year return period. According to the seismic gap theory, we can expect that the next strong earthquake and tsunami will occur between 19 and 28° S in the vicinity of northern Chile.  相似文献   

19.
Method to determine the locations of tsunami vertical evacuation shelters   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Great Tohoku Japan earthquake and tsunami focused a great deal of the world??s attention on the effect of tsunamis on buildings and infrastructure. When a tsunami impacts structures in a coastal community, the structures are often not strong enough to withstand the forces and may collapse. Therefore, to maximize the survival probability, people evacuate to higher ground or move outside the inundation zone. However, this is not always possible because of short warning times for near-field tsunamis. Thus, sheltering-in-place or ??sheltering-near-place?? using vertical evacuation should be considered as an alternative approach to lateral evacuation from a tsunami inundation zone. This paper presents the method and results of a study to develop and demonstrate a methodology that applied genetic optimization to determine optimal tsunami shelter locations with the goal of reducing evacuation time, thereby maximizing the probability of survival for the population in a coastal community. The City of Cannon Beach, Oregon, USA, was used as an illustrative example. Several cases were investigated ranging from a single shelter to multiple shelters with locations of high elevation already in place near the city. The method can provide decision-support for the determination of locations for tsunami vertical evacuation shelters. The optimum location of the shelter(s), which was found to vary depending on the number of shelters considered, can reduce the evacuation time significantly, thereby reducing the number of fatalities and increasing the safety of a community.  相似文献   

20.
Wang  Zhenqiang  Jia  Gaofeng 《Natural Hazards》2021,105(2):2045-2071

Tsunami evacuation is an effective way to save lives from the near-field tsunami. Realistic evacuation simulation can provide valuable information for accurate evacuation risk assessment and effective evacuation planning. Agent-based modeling is ideal for tsunami evacuation simulation due to its capability of capturing the emergent phenomena and modeling the individual-level interactions among agents and the agents’ interactions with the environment. However, existing models usually neglect or simplify some important factors and/or mechanisms in tsunami evacuation. For example, uncertainties in seismic damages to the transportation network are not probabilistically considered (e.g., by simply removing the damaged links (roads/bridges) from the network). Typically a relatively small population (i.e., evacuees) is considered (due to computational challenges) while neglecting population mobility. These simplifications may lead to inaccurate estimation of evacuation risk. Usually, only single traffic mode (e.g., on foot or by car) is considered, while pedestrian speed adjustment and multi-modal evacuation (e.g., on foot and by car) are not considered concurrently. Also, pedestrian–vehicle interaction is usually neglected in the multi-modal evacuation. To address the above limitations, this study proposes a novel and more realistic agent-based tsunami evacuation model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment. Uncertainties in seismic damages to all links in the transportation network as well as uncertainties in other evacuation parameters are explicitly modeled and considered. A novel and more realistic multi-modal evacuation model is proposed that explicitly considers the pedestrian–vehicle interaction, walking speed variability, and speed adjustment for both the pedestrian and car according to traffic density. In addition, several different population sizes are used to model population mobility and its impact on tsunami evacuation risk. The proposed model is applied within a simulation-based framework to assess the tsunami evacuation risk assessment for Seaside, Oregon.

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