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1.
Scaling and multifractal properties of the hydrological processes of the Yangtze River basin were explored by using a multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF‐DFA) technique. Long daily mean streamflow series from Cuntan, Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations were analyzed. Using shuffled streamflow series, the types of multifractality of streamflow series was also studied. The results indicate that the discharge series of the Yangtze River basin are non‐stationary. Different correlation properties were identified within streamflow series of the upper, the middle and the lower Yangtze River basin. The discharge series of the upper Yangtze River basin are characterized by short memory or anti‐persistence; while the streamflow series of the lower Yangtze River basin is characterized by long memory or persistence. h(q) vs q curves indicate multifractality of the hydrological processes of the Yangtze River basin. h(q) curves of shuffled streamflow series suggest that the multifractality of the streamflow series is mainly due to the correlation properties within the hydrological series. This study may be of practical and scientific importance in regional flood frequency analysis and water resource management in different parts of the Yangtze River basin. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and runoff for 139 basins in South Korea were investigated for 34 years (1968–2001). The Precipitation‐Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was selected for the assessment of basin hydrologic response to varying climates and physiology. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall's test and regression analysis are used to detect trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff, while Moran's I is adapted to determine the degree of spatial dependence in runoff trend among the basins. The results indicated that the long‐term trends in annual precipitation and runoff were increased in northern regions and decreased in south‐western regions of the study area during the study period. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test showed that spring streamflow was decreasing, while summer streamflow was increasing. April precipitation decreased between 15% and 74% for basins located in south‐western part of the Korean peninsula. June precipitation increased between 18% and 180% for the majority of the basins. Trends in seasonal and monthly streamflow show similar patterns compared to trends in precipitation. Decreases in spring runoff are associated with decreases in spring precipitation which, accompanied by rising temperatures, are responsible for reducing soil moisture. The regional patterns of precipitation and runoff changes show a strong to moderate positive spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that there is a high potential for severe spring drought and summer flooding in some parts of Korea if these trends continue in the future. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Sensitivity analysis of the hydrological behaviour of basins has mainly focused on the correlation between streamflow and climate, ignoring the uncertainty of future climate and not utilizing complex hydrological models. However, groundwater storage is affected by climatic change and human activities. The streamflow of many basins is primarily sourced from the natural discharge of aquifers in upstream regions. The correlation between streamflow and groundwater storage has not been thoroughly discussed. In this study, the storage–discharge sensitivity of 22 basins in Taiwan was investigated by means of daily streamflow and rainfall data obtained over more than 30 years. The relationship between storage and discharge variance was evaluated using low‐flow recession analysis and a water balance equation that ignores the influence of rainfall and evapotranspiration. Based on the obtained storage–discharge sensitivity, this study explored whether the water storage and discharge behaviour of the studied basins is susceptible to climate change or human activities and discusses the regional differences in storage–discharge sensitivity. The results showed that the average storage–discharge sensitivities were 0.056 and 0.162 mm?1 in the northern and southern regions of Taiwan, respectively. In the central and eastern regions, the values were both 0.020 mm?1. The storage–discharge sensitivity was very high in the southern region. The regional differences in storage–discharge sensitivity with similar climate conditions are primarily due to differences in aquifer properties. Based on the recession curve, other factors responsible for these differences include land utilization, land coverage, and rainfall patterns during dry and wet seasons. These factors lead to differences in groundwater recharge and thus to regional differences in storage–discharge sensitivity.  相似文献   

4.
Long‐term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, such as Central America, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information—to locally observed discharge—can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Given the strong influence that climatic large‐scale processes exert on streamflow variability in the Central American region, we explored the use of climate variability knowledge as process constraints to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty for a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty, we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. Then, based on this reduced parameter space, we applied the climate‐based process constraints at long‐term, inter‐annual, and intra‐annual timescales. In the first step, we reduced the initial number of parameters by 52%, and then, we further reduced the number of parameters by 3% with the climate constraints. Finally, we compared the climate‐based constraints with a constraint based on global maps of low‐flow statistics. This latter constraint proved to be more restrictive than those based on climate variability (further reducing the number of parameters by 66% compared with 3%). Even so, the climate‐based constraints rejected inconsistent model simulations that were not rejected by the low‐flow statistics constraint. When taken all together, the constraints produced constrained simulation uncertainty bands, and the median simulated discharge followed the observed time series to a similar level as an optimized model. All the constraints were found useful in constraining model uncertainty for an—assumed to be—ungauged basin. This shows that our method is promising for modelling long‐term flow data for ungauged catchments on the Pacific side of Central America and that similar methods can be developed for ungauged basins in other regions where climate variability exerts a strong control on streamflow variability.  相似文献   

5.
A reliable prediction of hydrologic models, among other things, requires a set of plausible parameters that correspond with physiographic properties of the basin. This study proposes a parameter estimation approach, which is based on extracting, through hydrograph diagnoses, information in the form of indices that carry intrinsic properties of a basin. This concept is demonstrated by introducing two indices that describe the shape of a streamflow hydrograph in an integrated manner. Nineteen mid‐size (223–4790 km2) perennial headwater basins with a long record of streamflow data were selected to evaluate the ability of these indices to capture basin response characteristics. An examination of the utility of the proposed indices in parameter estimation is conducted for a five‐parameter hydrologic model using data from the Leaf River, located in Fort Collins, Mississippi. It is shown that constraining the parameter estimation by selecting only those parameters that result in model output which maintains the indices as found in the historical data can improve the reliability of model predictions. These improvements were manifested in (a) improvement of the prediction of low and high flow, (b) improvement of the overall total biases, and (c) maintenance of the hydrograph's shape for both long‐term and short‐term predictions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

The spatial scaling properties of annual average streamflow is examined using records from 1 433 river basins across the continental United States. The log-linear relationship ln(E[Qr i]) = a + br ln(Ai) is representative throughout the United States, where E[Qr i] represents the expectation of the rth moment of annual streamflow at site i, and Ai represents drainage area. The scaling model parameters ar and br follow nearly perfect linear relationships ar = rα and br = rβ throughout the continental United States. We conclude that the probability distribution of annual streamflow follows simple scaling relationships in all regions of the United States. In temperate regions where climate is relatively homogeneous, scale alone describes most of the variability in the moments of annual streamflow. In the more climatically heterogeneous regions, such as in the Upper Colorado and Missouri river basins, scale alone is a poor predictor of the moments of annual flow.  相似文献   

7.
D. Markovic  M. Koch 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2202-2211
Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of mean monthly time series of river flow, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, duration of bright sunshine, degree of cloud cover, short wave radiation, wind speed and potential evaporation within or in vicinity of the German part of the Elbe River Basin are analyzed. Statistically significant correlations between the 2–15 year scale‐averaged wavelet spectra of the hydroclimatic variables and the North Atlantic Oscillation‐ and Arctic Oscillation index are found which suggests that such long‐term patterns in hydroclimatic time series are externally forced. The Hurst parameter estimates (H) based on the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) indicate persistence for discharge, precipitation, wind speed, air pressure and the degree of cloud cover, all having an annual cycle and a broad low‐frequency distribution. Also, DFA H parameter estimates are higher for discharge than for precipitation. The major long‐term quasi‐periodic variability modes of precipitation detected using Singular Spectrum Analysis coincide with those detected in the discharge time series. Upon subtraction of these low‐frequency quasi‐periodic modes, the DFA H parameter estimates suggest absence of the persistence for both precipitation and discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Land‐cover/climate changes and their impacts on hydrological processes are of widespread concern and a great challenge to researchers and policy makers. Kejie Watershed in the Salween River Basin in Yunnan, south‐west China, has been reforested extensively during the past two decades. In terms of climate change, there has been a marked increase in temperature. The impact of these changes on hydrological processes required investigation: hence, this paper assesses aspects of changes in land cover and climate. The response of hydrological processes to land‐cover/climate changes was examined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and impacts of single factor, land‐use/climate change on hydrological processes were differentiated. Land‐cover maps revealed extensive reforestation at the expense of grassland, cropland, and barren land. A significant monotonic trend and noticeable changes had occurred in annual temperature over the long term. Long‐term changes in annual rainfall and streamflow were weak; and changes in monthly rainfall (May, June, July, and September) were apparent. Hydrological simulations showed that the impact of climate change on surface water, baseflow, and streamflow was offset by the impact of land‐cover change. Seasonal variation in streamflow was influenced by seasonal variation in rainfall. The earlier onset of monsoon and the variability of rainfall resulted in extreme monthly streamflow. Land‐cover change played a dominant role in mean annual values; seasonal variation in surface water and streamflow was influenced mainly by seasonal variation in rainfall; and land‐cover change played a regulating role in this. Surface water is more sensitive to land‐cover change and climate change: an increase in surface water in September and May due to increased rainfall was offset by a decrease in surface water due to land‐cover change. A decrease in baseflow caused by changes in rainfall and temperature was offset by an increase in baseflow due to land‐cover change. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Climate change is one of the main drivers of river warming worldwide. However, the response of river temperature to climate change differs with the hydrology and landscape properties, making it difficult to generalize the strength and the direction, of river temperature trends across large spatial scales and various river types. Additionally, there is a lack of long‐term and large‐scale trend studies in Europe as well as globally. In this study, we investigated the long‐term (25 years; 132 sites) and the short‐term (10 years; 475 sites) river temperature trends, patterns and underlying drivers within the period 1985–2010 in seven river basins of Germany. The majority of the sites underwent significant river warming during 1985–2010 (mean warming trend: 0.03 °C year?1, SE = 0.003), with a faster warming observed during individual decades (1985–1995 and 2000–2010) within this period. Seasonal analyses showed that, while rivers warmed in all seasons, the fastest warming had occurred during summer. Among all the considered hydro‐climatological variables, air temperature change, which is a response to climate forcing, was the main driver of river temperature change because it had the strongest correlation with river temperature, irrespective of the period. Hydrological variables, such as average flow and baseflow, had a considerable influence on river temperature variability rather than on the overall trend direction. However, decreasing flow probably assisted in a faster river temperature increase in summer and in rivers in NE basins (such as the Elbe basin). The North Atlantic Oscillation Index had a greater significant influence on the winter river temperature variability than on the overall variability. Landscape and basin variables, such as altitude, ecoregion and catchment area, induced spatially variable river temperature trends via affecting the thermal sensitivity of rivers, with the rivers in large catchments and in lowland areas being most sensitive. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Inter‐basin differences in streamflow response to changes in regional hydroclimatology may reflect variations in storage characteristics that control the retention and release of water inputs. These aspects of storage could mediate a basin's sensitivity to climate change. The hypothesis that temporal trends in stream baseflow exhibit a more muted reaction to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration for basins with greater storage was tested on the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) in Southern Ontario, Canada. Long‐term (>25 years) baseflow trends for 16 basins were compared to corresponding trends in precipitation amount and type and in potential evapotranspiration as well as shorter trends in groundwater levels for monitoring wells on the ORM. Inter‐basin differences in storage properties were characterized using physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, and streamflow metrics. The latter included the slope of the basin's flow duration curve and basin dynamic storage. Most basins showed temporal increases in baseflow, consistent with limited evidence of increases and decreases in regional precipitation and snowfall: precipitation ratio, respectively, and recent increases in groundwater recharge along the crest of the ORM. Baseflow trend magnitude was uncorrelated to basin physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, or flow duration curve characteristics. However, it was positively related to a basin's dynamic storage, particularly for basins with limited coverage of open water and wetlands. The dynamic storage approach assumes that a basin behaves as a first‐order dynamical system, and extensive open water and wetland areas in a basin may invalidate this assumption. Previous work suggested that smaller dynamic storage was linked to greater damping of temporal variations in water inputs and reduced interannual variability in streamflow regime. Storage and release of water inputs to a basin may assist in mediating baseflow response to temporal changes in regional hydroclimatology and may partly account for inter‐basin differences in that response. Such storage characteristics should be considered when forecasting the impacts of climate change on regional streamflow.  相似文献   

11.
In Australia, multidecadal periods of floods and droughts have major economic consequences. Due to the short duration of Australian instrumental precipitation records, it is difficult to determine the patterns of these multidecadal periods. Proxy records can be used to create long‐term rainfall reconstructions for regions that are lacking instrumental data. However, the spatial extent over which single‐site proxy records can be applied is poorly understood. Southeast Queensland (SEQ) is an area where tree rings can be used to reconstruct long‐term rainfall patterns, but their regional representation is unknown. In this study, the spatial variability in rainfall across SEQ is investigated from 1908 to 2007 using 140 instrumental rainfall stations. Pearson correlation analysis between stations is used to create groups at the r = 0.80, 0.85, and 0.90 correlation levels, and then annual deviations from the mean are determined. These patterns indicate that rainfall is not uniform across SEQ but can be broken into 2 main spatially consistent groups. Each of these groups is broken down into several subgroups with higher correlation levels. Long‐term streamflow records are found to be correlated to rainfall patterns local to the streamflow stations, indicating that analysis of extreme events should consider spatial precipitation variability. Finally, the only currently available proxy rainfall reconstruction for the region, a 140‐year Toona ciliata tree ring width record from Lamington National Park, is compared to rainfall groups at different correlation levels across all of SEQ. The correlation between the reconstruction and the rainfall station groupings is best for the groups within which the tree‐ring record is spatially located, and this correlation improves as rainfall group correlation increases. Correlation is nearly nonexistent for groupings located at a distance from the tree‐ring site. These results demonstrate the importance of assessing the spatial variability of precipitation so that the spatial applicability of proxy records can be assessed.  相似文献   

12.
This paper investigates the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany, Italy. A continuous hydrological model for each of the seven river basins within the study area was calibrated using historical data. The models were then driven by downscaled and bias‐corrected climate projections of an ensemble of 13 regional climate models (RCMs), under two different scenarios of representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The impacts were examined at medium term (2031–2040) and long term (2051–2060) in comparison with a reference period (2003–2012); the changes in rainfall, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were investigated. A high degree of uncertainty characterized the results with a significant intermodel variability, the period being equal. For the sake of brevity, only the results for the Serchio River basin were presented in detail. According to the RCM ensemble mean and the RCP4.5, a moderate decrease in rainfall, with reference to 2003–2012, is expected at medium term (?0.6%) and long term (?2.8%). Due to the warming of the study area, the reduction in the streamflow volume is two times the precipitation decrease (?1.1% and ?6.8% at medium and long term, respectively). The groundwater recharge is mainly affected by the changes in climate with expected percolation volume variations of ?3.3% at 2031–2040 and ?8.1% at 2051–2060. The impacts on the Serchio River basin water resources are less significant under the RCP8.5 scenario. The presence of artificial structures, such as dam‐reservoir systems, can contribute to mitigate the effects of climate change on water resources through the implementation of appropriate regulation strategies.  相似文献   

13.
Variations in streamflows of five tributaries of the Poyang Lake basin, China, because of the influence of human activities and climate change were evaluated using the Australia Water Balance Model and multivariate regression. Results indicated that multiple regression models were appropriate with precipitation, potential evapotranspiration of the current month, and precipitation of the last month as explanatory variables. The NASH coefficient for the Australia Water Balance Model was larger than 0.842, indicating satisfactory simulation of streamflow of the Poyang Lake basin. Comparison indicated that the sensitivity method could not exclude the benchmark‐period human influence, and the human influence on streamflow changes was overestimated. Generally, contributions of human activities and climate change to streamflow changes were 73.2% and 26.8% respectively. However, human‐induced and climate‐induced influences on streamflow were different in different river basins. Specifically, climate change was found to be the major driving factor for the increase of streamflow within the Rao, Xin, and Gan River basins; however, human activity was the principal driving factor for the increase of streamflow of the Xiu River basin and also for the decrease of streamflow of the Fu River basin. Meanwhile, impacts of human activities and climate change on streamflow variations were distinctly different at different temporal scales. At the annual time scale, the increase of streamflow was largely because of climate change and human activities during the 1970s–1990s and the decrease of streamflow during the 2000s. At the seasonal scale, climate change was the main factor behind the increase of streamflow in the spring and summer season. Human activities increase the streamflow in autumn and winter, but decrease the streamflow in spring. At the monthly scale, different influences of climate change and human activities were detected. Climate change was the main factor behind the decrease of streamflow during May to June and human activities behind the decrease of streamflow during February to May. Results of this study can provide a theoretical basis for basin‐scale water resources management under the influence of climate change and human activities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
J.M. Buttle  M.C. Eimers   《Journal of Hydrology》2009,374(3-4):360-372
Relationships explaining streamflow behaviour in terms of drainage basin physiography greatly assist efforts to extrapolate streamflow metrics from gauged to ungauged basins in the same landscape. The Dorset Environmental Science Centre (DESC) has monitored streamflow from 22 small basins (3.4–190.5 ha) on the Precambrian Shield in south-central Ontario, in some cases since 1976. The basins exhibit regional coherence in their interannual response to precipitation; however, there is often a poor correlation between streamflow metrics from basins separated by as little as 1 km. This study assesses whether inter-basin variations in such metrics can be explained in terms of basin scale and physiography. Several characteristics (annual maximum, minimum and average flow) exhibited simple scaling with basin area, while magnitude, range and timing of annual maximum daily runoff showed scaling behaviour consistent with the Representative Elementary Area (REA) concept. This REA behaviour is partly attributed to convergence of fractional coverage of the two dominant and hydrologically-contrasting land cover types in the DESC region with increasing basin size. Three Principal Components (PCs) explained 82.4% of the variation among basin physiographic properties, and several runoff metrics (magnitude and timing of annual minimum daily runoff, mean number of days per year with 0 streamflow) exhibited significant relationships with one or more PC. Significant relationships were obtained between basin quickflow (QF) production and the PCs on a seasonal and annual basis, almost all of which were superior to simple area-based relationships. Basin physiography influenced QF generation via its control on slope runoff, water storage and hydrologic connectivity; however, this role was minimized during Spring when QF production in response to large rain-on-snow events was relatively uniform across the DESC basins. The PC-based relationships and inter-seasonal changes in their form were consistent with previous research conducted at point, slope and basin scales in the DESC region, and perceptions of key hydrological processes in these small basins may not have been as readily obtained from scaling studies using streamflow from larger basins. This process understanding provides insights into scaling behaviour beyond those derived from simple scaling and REA analyses. The physiography of the study area is representative of large portions of the Precambrian Shield, such that basin streamflow behaviour could potentially be extended across much of south-central Ontario. This would assist predictions of streamflow conditions at ungauged locations, development and testing of hydrological models for this landscape, and interpretation of inter-basin and intra-annual differences in hydrochemical behaviour on the southern Precambrian Shield.  相似文献   

15.
Impacts of forest harvesting on groundwater properties, water flowpaths and streamflow response were examined 4 years after the harvest using a paired‐basin approach during the 2001 snowmelt in a northern hardwood landscape in central Ontario. The ability of two metrics of basin topography (Beven and Kirkby's ln(a/tan β) topographic index (TI) and distance to stream channel) to explain intra‐basin variations in groundwater dynamics was also evaluated. Significant relationships between TI and depth to potentiometric surface for shallow groundwater emerged, although the occurrence of these relationships during the melt differed between harvested and control basins, possibly as a result of interbasin differences in upslope area contributing to piezometers used to monitor groundwater behaviour. Transmissivity feedback (rapid streamflow increases as the water table approaches the soil surface) governed streamflow generation in both basins, and the mean threshold depths at which rapid streamflow increases corresponded to small rises in water level were similar for harvested (0·41 ± 0·05 m) and forested (0·38 ± 0·04 m) basins. However, topographic properties provided inconsistent explanations of spatial variations in the relationship between streamflow and depth to water at a given piezometer for both basins. Streamflow from the harvested basin exceeded that from the forested basin during the 2001 melt, and hydrometric and geochemical tracer results indicated greater runoff from the harvested basin via surface and near‐surface pathways. These differences are not solely attributable to harvesting, since the difference in spring runoff from the harvested basin relative to the forested control was not consistently larger than under pre‐harvest conditions. Nevertheless, greater melt rates following harvesting appear to have increased the proportion of water delivery to the stream channel via surface and near‐surface pathways. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Annual streamflows have decreased across mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States over the last ~70 years; however, in some watersheds, observed annual flows have increased. Physically based models are useful tools to reveal the combined effects of climate and vegetation on long‐term water balances by explicitly simulating the internal watershed hydrological fluxes that affect discharge. We used the physically based Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model to simulate the inter‐annual hydrological dynamics of a 4 km2 watershed in northern Idaho. The model simulates seasonal and annual water balance components including evaporation, transpiration, storage changes, deep drainage, and trends in streamflow. Independent measurements were used to parameterize the model, including forest transpiration, stomatal feedback to vapour pressure, forest properties (height, leaf area index, and biomass), soil properties, soil moisture, snow depth, and snow water equivalent. No calibrations were applied to fit the simulated streamflow to observations. The model reasonably simulated the annual runoff variations during the evaluation period from water year 2004 to 2009, which verified the ability of SHAW to simulate the water budget in this small watershed. The simulations indicated that inter‐annual variations in streamflow were driven by variations in precipitation and soil water storage. One key parameterization issue was leaf area index, which strongly influenced interception across the catchment. This approach appears promising to help elucidate the mechanisms responsible for hydrological trends and variations resulting from climate and vegetation changes on small watersheds in the region. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Employing long‐range correlation, complexity features and clustering, this study investigated the influence of dam and lake‐river systems on the Yangtze River flow. The impact of the Gezhouba Dam and the lake systems on streamflow was evaluated by analysing daily streamflow records at the Cuntan, the Yichang and the Datong station. Results indicated no evident influence of the Gezhouba Dam on streamflow changes. Distinct differences in scaling behaviour, long‐range correlation and clustering of streamflow at the Datong station when compared with those at the Cuntan and Yichang stations undoubtedly showed the influence of water storage and the buffering effect of the lake systems between the Datong station and other two hydrological stations on streamflow in the lower Yangtze River basin. Decreased regularity, enhanced long‐range correlation and increased clustering of streamflow in the lower Yangtze River basin due to the effect of water storage of the lake systems were corroborated. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
The hydrological effect of forest recovery is receiving renewed interest globally because information on forest carbon–water relationship is critically needed to support carbon management through reforestation and sustainable water management. In Northeastern China, summer (June to August) streamflow accounts for about 50% of total annual streamflow and is vital to water supply and management in the region. Understanding how forest recovery may affect streamflow is important to both reforestation campaign and long‐term water sustainability. In this study, we analysed 33 years of summer hydrologic data (1970–2002) from two comparable small‐scale watersheds located in the Xiaoxing'anling, Northeastern China. Time series analysis and two graphic methods (double mass curve and flow duration curve) with statistical testing as well as long‐term data on forest cover changes and climate were used. Our results show that the significant streamflow reduction as a result of reforestation occurred when forest cover reached 70% or 10 years after planting. After forest cover reached 85%, water reduction became stabilized. The accumulative streamflow reduction in 2002 reached 8·61% of the total accumulative streamflow. Among those water reduced, high flows (from 5 to 25 percentiles) were mostly affected, demonstrating that northeastern forests have an important role in reducing high flows. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of climate change, reforestation and water resource management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Detrending is a key step in the study of the scaling behaviors using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to explore the long‐range correlation of hydrological series. However, the irregular periodicity and various trends within hydrological series as a result of integrated influences of human activities such as construction of water reservoirs and human withdrawal of freshwater and climate changes such as alterations of precipitation changes in both space and time make difficult the selection of detrending methods. In this study, we attempt to address the detrending problem due to the important theoretical and practical merits of detrending in DFA‐based scaling analysis. In this case, with focus on the irregularity of the periodic trends, a modified DFA, varying parameter DFA (VPDFA), and its combination with adaptive detrending algorithm (ADA) are employed to eliminate the influences of irregular cycles on DFA‐based scaling results. The results indicate that, for streamflow series with no more than 20 cycles, VPDFA is recommended; otherwise, the combined method has to be employed. Comparison study indicates that the scaling behavior of the detrended observed streamflow series by average removed method, when compared to those by DFA, VPDFA, and ADA, is the one of the periodic residues around the averaged annual cycle for the entire series rather than that excluding all annual cycles. However, although the result by VPDFA for short observed streamflow record can well correspond to that for numerically simulated series, the scaling behavior obtained by combined method analyzing long record looks strange and is different from that by numerical analysis. We attribute this difference to the complicated hydrological structure and the possible hydrological alternation due to the increasing integrated impacts of human activities and human activities with the extending record. How to include the most of the important factors into the detrending procedure is still a challenging task for further study in the analysis of the scaling behavior of hydrological processes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
This study assessed the long‐term (1979–2008) water budget closures for 19 large cold region drainage basins in Canada using recently developed datasets for precipitation (P), land surface evapotranspiration and water surface evaporation, and observed streamflow. Total water storage (TWS) trends from the GRACE satellite observations were also used to assist the assessment. The objectives are to quantify the magnitudes and spatial patterns of the water budget imbalance (ε) and its source of errors for these cold region basins. Results showed that the water budget was closed within 10% of the P on average for all the basins. The ε showed a general pattern of positive values in the south and negative values in the north and mountainous regions over the country. Basins with large ε values were mostly found in the north. Uncertainties in the water budget variables, particularly P, were found to play a major role in the ε. Significant trends in TWS were found over 11 basins, which accounted for 31% of their ε on average. Improvements in the observation network, data quality assurance, and spatial models for P are critical for further improving the water budget closure for the cold region drainage basins. © 2014 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Hydrological Processes. © John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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