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1.
A complete landslide inventory and attribute database is the importantly fundamental for the study of the earthquake-induced landslide. Substantial landslides were triggered by the MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th, 2008. Google Earth images of pre- and post-earthquakes show that 52 194 co-seismic landslides were recognized and mapped, with a total landslides area of 1 021 km2.Based on the statistics,we assigned all landslide parameters and established the co-seismic landslides database, which includes area, length, and width of landslides, elevation of the scarp top and foot edge, and the top and bottom elevations of each located slope. Finally, the spatial distribution and the above attribute parameters of landslides were analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution of the co-seismic landslides is extremely uneven. The landslides that mainly occur in a rectangular area (a width of 30 km of the hanging wall of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault and a length of 120 km between Yingxiu and Beichuan) are obviously controlled by surface rupture, terrain, and peak ground acceleration. Meanwhile, a large number of small landslides (individual landslide area less than 10 000 m2)contribute less to the total landslides area. The number of landslides larger than 10 000 m2 accounts for 38.7% of the total number of co-seismic landslides, while the area of those landslides account for 88% of the total landslides area. The 52 194 co-seismic landslides are caused by bedrock collapse that usually consists of three parts:source area, transport area, and accumulation area. However, based on the area-volume power-law relationship, the resulting regional landslide volume may be much larger than the true landslide volume if the landslide volume is calculated using the influenced area from each landslide.  相似文献   

2.
In this work, a transient rainfall infiltration and grid‐based regional slope‐stability model (TRIGRS) was implemented in a case study of Yan'an City, Northwest China. In this area, widespread shallow landslides were triggered by the 12 July 2013 exceptional rainstorm event. A high‐resolution DEM, soil parameters from in‐situ and laboratory measurements, water table depths, the maximum depth of precipitation infiltration and rain‐gauge‐corrected precipitation of the event, were used as inputs in the TRIGRS model. Shallow landslides triggered on the same day were used to evaluate the modeling results. The summarized results are as follows: (i) The characteristics and distribution of thirty‐five shallow landslides triggered by the 12 July 2013 rainfall event were identified in the study area and all were classified as shallow landslides with the maximum depth, area and volume less than 3 m, 200 m2 and 1000 m3, respectively, (ii) Four intermediate factor of safety (FS) maps were generated using the TRIGRS model to represent the scenarios 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours after the storm event. The area with FS < 1 increased with the rainfall duration. The percentage of the area with FS < 1 was 0.2%, 3.3%, 3.8% and 5.1% for the four stages, respectively. Twenty‐four hours after the rainstorm, TRIGRS predicted that 1255 grid cells failed, which is consistent with the field data. (iii) TRIGRS generated more satisfactory results at a given precipitation threshold than SINMAP, which is ideal for landslide hazard zoning for land‐use planning at the regional scale. Comparison results showed that TRIGRS is more useful for landslide prediction for a certain precipitation threshold, also in the regional scale. (iv) Analysis of the responses of loess slope prone to slope failure after different precipitation scenarios revealed that loess slopes are particularly sensitive to extended periods of heavy precipitation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
An inventory of 846 mass movements, mainly landslides, in two alpine regions of southwest New Zealand was created to explore the geomorphic impacts of slope‐failure processes on river channels and valley floors. In total, 213 (i.e. 27 per cent) of the slope failures descended to valley floors, affecting the geomorphology of trunk channels (catchment area AC > 10 km2) and valley floors in recurring patterns. A nominal classification system is introduced for characterizing (a) the physical contact nature between landslides and river channels, and (b) the resulting geomorphic consequences for drainage. Although landslide area A is useful for estimating the length of channel directly impacted by debris, it does not necessarily predict the direction of fluvial response or type of impact. Dominant persistent geomorphic imprints of bedrock landslides include channel occlusions and landslide dams in South Westland and Fiordland, respectively. Differences in size distribution and geomorphic effects on river systems between the two study regions are attributed to bedrock geology, tectonics and sediment flux. Although South Westland rivers are more frequently affected by landslides, disrupting long‐term effects such as blockage are more persistent in Fiordland. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
We examined the characteristics of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw = 7.0: focal depth=10.0 km) in forests and grasslands within two affected watersheds (Tokosegawa: 6.9 km2 and Nigorigawa: 6.1 km2) in southwestern Japan. We identified 190 landslides using aerial photographs and analyzed their sizes by geographic information system (GIS). Field investigations were conducted to obtain landslide depth, volume and residual sediment for 38 selected landslides (21 in forests and 17 in grasslands). The minimum area of detected landslides in grasslands (400 m2) was smaller than in forests (1000 m2), probably because of reduced detectability of landslides under tree cover. The ratio of total area occupied by landslides for a given range of slope gradient in the watersheds increased from 3.2% on gentle grassland slopes (10–15°) to 15.5% on steep (>45°) slopes, whereas the maximum landslide-area ratio in forest sites (7.4%) occurred on relatively gentle slopes (25–30°). Estimated landslide volume ranged from 27 to 9622 m3, based on mean depth of each landslide measured around individual landslide scars. Moreover, the volumetric ratio of landslide deposit volume to total landslide volume exceeded 100% for 48% of the landslides within forests and 35% of the landslides within grasslands. Our findings show that land cover had extensive and recognizable effects on the characteristics of landslides and resulting in-channel sediment accumulations. Resetting sediment dynamics after earthquakes associated with different land cover distributions needs to be considered within watersheds. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Empirical prediction of coseismic landslide dam formation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
In this study we develop an empirical method to estimate the volume threshold for predicting coseismic landslide dam formation using landscape parameters obtained from digital elevation models (DEMs). We hypothesize that the potential runout and volume of landslides, together with river features, determine the likelihood of the formation of a landslide dam. To develop this method, a database was created by randomly selecting 140 damming and 200 non‐damming landslides from 501 landslide dams and > 60 000 landslides induced by the Mw 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. We used this database to parameterize empirical runout models by stepwise multivariate regression. We find that factors controlling landslide runout are landslide initiation volume, landslide type, internal relief (H) and the H/L ratio (between H and landslide horizontal distance to river, L). In order to obtain a first volume threshold for a landslide to reach a river, the runout regression equations were converted into inverse volume equations by taking the runout to be the distance to river. A second volume threshold above which a landslide is predicted to block a river was determined by the correlation between river width and landslide volume of the known damming landslides. The larger of these two thresholds was taken as the final damming threshold. This method was applied to several landslide types over a fine geographic grid of assumed initiation points in a selected catchment. The overall prediction accuracy was 97.4% and 86.0% for non‐damming and damming landslides, respectively. The model was further tested by predicting the damming landslides over the whole region, with promising results. We conclude that our method is robust and reliable for the Wenchuan event. In combination with pre‐event landslide susceptibility and frequency–size assessments, it can be used to predict likely damming locations of future coseismic landslides, thereby helping to plan emergency response. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
In August 2009, the typhoon Morakot, characterized by a cumulative rainfall up to 2884 mm in about three days, triggered thousands of landslides in Taiwan. The availability of LiDAR surveys before (2005) and after (2010) this event offers a unique opportunity to investigate the topographic signatures of a major typhoon. The analysis considers the comparison of slope–area relationships derived by LiDAR digital terrain models (DTMs). This approach has been successfully used to distinguish hillslope from channelized processes, as a basis to develop landscape evolution models and theories, and understand the linkages between landscape morphology and tectonics, climate, and geology. We considered six catchments affected by a different degree of erosion: three affected by shallow and deep‐seated landslides, and three not affected by erosion. For each of these catchments, 2 m DTMs were derived from LiDAR data. The scaling regimes of local slope versus drainage area suggested that for the catchments affected by landslides: (i) the hillslope‐to‐valley transitions morphology, for a given value of drainage area, is shifted towards higher value of slopes, thus indicating a likely migration of the channelized processes and erosion toward the catchment boundary (the catchment head becomes steeper because of erosion); (ii) the topographic gradient along valley profiles tends to decrease progressively (the valley profile becomes gentler because of sediment deposition after the typhoon). The catchments without any landslides present a statistically indistinguishable slope–area scaling regime. These results are interesting since for the first time, using multi‐temporal high‐resolution topography derived by LiDAR, we demonstrated that a single climate event is able to cause significant major geomorphic changes on the landscape, detectable using slope–area scaling analysis. This provides new insights about landscape evolution under major climate forcing. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Landslide erosion is a dominant hillslope process and the main source of stream sediment in tropical, tectonically active mountain belts. In this study, we quantified landslide erosion triggered by 24 rainfall events from 2001 to 2009 in three mountainous watersheds in Taiwan and investigated relationships between landslide erosion and rainfall variables. The results show positive power‐law relations between landslide erosion and rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall, with scaling exponents ranging from 2·94 to 5·03. Additionally, landslide erosion caused by Typhoon Morakot is of comparable magnitude to landslide erosion caused by the Chi‐Chi Earthquake (MW = 7·6) or 22–24 years of basin‐averaged erosion. Comparison of the three watersheds indicates that deeper landslides that mobilize soil and bedrock are triggered by long‐duration rainfall, whereas shallow landslides are triggered by short‐duration rainfall. These results suggest that rainfall intensity and watershed characteristics are important controls on rainfall‐triggered landslide erosion and that severe typhoons, like high‐magnitude earthquakes, can generate high rates of landslide erosion in Taiwan. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Landslides and debris flows associated with forest harvesting can cause much destruction and the influence of the timing of harvesting on these mass wasting processes therefore needs to be assessed in order to protect aquatic ecosystems and develop improved strategies for disaster prevention. We examined the effects of forest harvesting on the frequency of landslides and debris flows in the Sanko catchment (central Japan) using nine aerial photo periods covering 1964 to 2003. These photographs showed a mosaic of different forest ages attributable to the rotational management in this area since 1912. Geology and slope gradient are rather uniformly distributed in the Sanko catchment, facilitating assessment of forest harvesting effects on mass wasting without complication of other factors. Trends of new landslides and debris flows correspond to changes in slope stability explained by root strength decay and recovery; the direct impact of clearcutting on landslide occurrence was greatest in forest stands that were clearcut 1 to 10 yr earlier with progressively lesser impacts continuing up to 25 yr after harvesting. Sediment supply rate from landslides in forests clearcut 1 to 10 yr earlier was about 10‐fold higher than in control sites. Total landslide volume in forest stands clearcut 0 to 25 yr earlier was 5·8 × 103 m3 km?2 compared with 1·3 × 103 m3 km?2 in clearcuts >25 yr, indicating a fourfold increase compared with control sites during the period when harvesting affected slope stability. Because landslide scars continue to produce sediment after initial failure, sediment supply from landslides continues for 45 yr in the Sanko catchment. To estimate the effect of forest harvesting and subsequent regeneration on the occurrence of mass wasting in other regions, changes in root strength caused by decay and recovery of roots should be investigated for various species and environmental conditions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
A catalogue of historical landslides, 1951–2002, for three provinces in the Emilia‐Romagna region of northern Italy is presented and its statistical properties studied. The catalogue consists of 2255 reported landslides and is based on historical archives and chronicles. We use two measures for the intensity of landsliding over time: (i) the number of reported landslides in a day (DL) and (ii) the number of reported landslides in an event (Sevent), where an event is one or more consecutive days with landsliding. From 1951–2002 in our study area there were 1057 days with 1 ≤ DL ≤?45 landslides per day, and 596 events with 1 ≤ Sevent ≤ 129 landslides per event. In the first set of analyses, we find that the probability density of landslide intensities in the time series are power‐law distributed over at least two‐orders of magnitude, with exponent of about ?2·0. Although our data is a proxy for landsliding built from newspaper reports, it is the first tentative evidence that the frequency‐size of triggered landslide events over time (not just the landslides in a given triggered event), like earthquakes, scale as a power‐law or other heavy‐tailed distributions. If confirmed, this could have important implications for risk assessment and erosion modelling in a given area. In our second set of analyses, we find that for short antecedent rainfall periods, the minimum amount of rainfall necessary to trigger landslides varies considerably with the intensity of the landsliding (DL and Sevent); whereas for long antecedent periods the magnitude is largely independent of the cumulative amount of rainfall, and the largest values of landslide intensity are always preceded by abundant rainfall. Further, the analysis of the rainfall trend suggests that the trigger of landslides in the study area is related to seasonal rainfall. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
The ongoing debate over the effects of global environmental change on Earth's cryosphere calls for detailed knowledge about process rates and their variability in cold environments. In this context, appraisals of the coupling between glacier dynamics and para‐glacial erosion rates in tectonically active mountains remain rare. We contribute to filling this knowledge gap and present an unprecedented regional‐scale inventory of supra‐glacial sediment flux and hillslope erosion rates inferred from an analysis of 123 large (> 0·1 km2) catastrophic bedrock landslides that fell onto glaciers in the Chugach Mountains, Alaska, as documented by satellite images obtained between 1972 to 2008. Assuming these supra‐glacial landslide deposits to be passive strain markers we infer minimum decadal‐scale sediment yields of 190 to 7400 t km–2 yr–1 for a given glacier‐surface cross‐section impacted by episodic rock–slope failure. These rates compare to reported fluvial sediment yields in many mountain rivers, but are an order of magnitude below the extreme sediment yields measured at the snouts of Alaskan glaciers, indicating that the bulk of debris discharged derives from en‐glacial, sub‐glacial or ice‐proximal sources. We estimate an average minimum para‐glacial erosion rate by large, episodic rock–slope failures at 0·5–0·7 mm yr–1 in the Chugach Mountains over a 50‐yr period, with earthquakes likely being responsible for up to 73% of this rate. Though ranking amongst the highest decadal landslide erosion rates for this size of study area worldwide, our inferred rates of hillslope erosion in the Chugach Mountains remain an order of magnitude below the pace of extremely rapid glacial sediment export and glacio‐isostatic surface uplift previously reported from the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Landsliding induced by earthquakes and rainstorms in montane regions is not only a sculptor for shaping the landscape, but also a driver for delivering sediments and above‐ground biomass downstream. However, the terrain attributes of earthquake‐ and rainstorm‐induced landslides are less discussed comprehensively in Taiwan. As part of an island‐wide inventory, we here compare and contrast the landslide terrain attributes resulting from two catastrophic events: the Chi‐Chi earthquake (M w = 7.6, September 1999) and typhoon Morakot (rainfall >2500 mm, August 2009). Results show that the earthquake‐induced landslides are relatively small, round‐shaped and prone to occur primarily in middle and toe of slopes. In contrast, the rainstorm‐induced landslides are larger, horseshoe‐shaped and preferentially occurring in slope toes. Also, earthquake‐induced landslides, particularly large landslides, are usually found at steeper gradients, whereas rainstorm‐induced landslides aggregate at gradients between 25° and 40°. Lithologic control plays a secondary role in landsliding. From an island‐wide perspective, high landslide density locates in the region of earthquake intensity ≥ VI or one‐day rainfall ≥600 mm day?1. Through the landslide patterns and their terrain attributes, our retrospective approach sheds light on accessing the historical and remote events for close geophysical investigations. Finally, we should bear in mind that the landslide location, size, and terrain attributes varying with triggers may affect the landscape evaluation or biogeochemical processes in landslide‐dominated regions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Landslides generate enormous volumes of sediment in mountainous watersheds; however, quantifying the downstream transport of landslide‐derived sediment remains a challenge. Landslide erosion and sediment delivery to the Shihmen Reservoir watershed in Taiwan was estimated using empirical landslide frequency–area and volume–area relationships, empirical landslide runout models, and the Hydrological Simulation Program‐ FORTRAN (HSPF). Landslide erosion rates ranged from 0.4 mm yr‐1 to 2.2 mm yr‐1 during the period 1986–2003, but increased to 7.9 mm yr‐1 following Typhoon Aere in 2004. The percentage of landslide sediment delivered to streams decreased from 78% during the period 1986–1997 to 55% in 2004. Although the delivery ratio was lower, the volume of landslide sediment delivered to streams was 2.81 × 106 Mg yr‐1 in 1986–1997 and 8.60 × 106 Mg yr‐1 in 2004. Model simulations indicate that only a small proportion of the landslide material was delivered downstream. An average of 13% of the landslide material delivered to rivers was moved downstream during the period 1986–1997. In 2004, the period including Typhoon Aere, the annual fluvial sediment yield accounted for approximately 23% of the landslide material delivered to streams. In general, the transfer of sediment in the fluvial system in the Shihmen Reservoir watershed is dominantly transport limited. The imbalance between sediment supply and transport capacity has resulted in a considerable quantity of landslide material remaining in the upper‐stream regions of the watershed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Extreme sedimentation in Swift Creek, located in the Cascades foothills in NW Washington (48°55′N, 122°16′W), results from erosion of the oversteepened, unvegetated toe of a large (55 hectares) active landslide. Deposition of landslide‐derived sediment has necessitated costly mitigation projects in the channel including annual dredging and temporary sediment traps in an attempt to reduce the risk of flooding and damage to man‐made structures downstream. This study attempts to understand the process of sediment production along with the corresponding erosion rates of the sediment source to help with the development of mitigation plans and construction of optimal sediment reservoirs. The bedload and suspended sediment in the creek are a direct result of the weathering process of the serpentinitic bedrock underlying the landslide. The serpentinite does not weather to smectite clay, as previously thought. Instead, it weathers to asbestiform chrysotile with minor amounts of chlorite, illite and hydrotalcite, all of which occur in clay seeps on the unvegetated surface of the landslide. The chrysotile fibers average 2 µm in length and make up at least 50%, by volume, of the suspended load transported in Swift Creek. This study does not address the environmental or health implications of the asbestiform chrysotile transport or deposition. During the sampled time between February 2005 and February 2006, 127 discrete suspended sediment samples were collected and discharge was measured 66 times. The suspended sediment concentrations ranged from 0·02 g L?1 to 41·6 g L?1 and the discharge ranged from 0·0 m3 s?1 to 0·5 m3 s?1. A nonlinear functional model estimated the total suspended sediment flux from detailed precipitation records and discrete suspended sediment concentration and discharge measurements to be 910 t km?2 yr?1. When the suspended sediment flux is coupled with estimates of downstream deposition of coarse sediment, the estimated erosion rate for the entire Swift Creek landslide is 158 mm yr?1. The majority of the material entering Swift Creek is presumed to originate on the unvegetated toe of the landslide, for which the erosion rate is thus approximately 1 m yr?1. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Landslides and runoff are dominant erosional agents in the tectonically active alpine South Westland area of New Zealand, characterized by high uplift rates and extreme orographic precipitation. Despite a high density of shallow debris slides and flows, the geomorphic imprints of deep‐seated bedrock failures are dominant and persistent. Over 50 large (>1 km2) landslides comprising rock slide[sol ]avalanches, complex rotational and rock‐block slides, wedge failures, and deep‐seated gravitational slope deformation were detected on air photos and shaded‐relief images. Major long‐term impacts on alpine rivers include (1) forced alluviation upstream of landslide dams, (2) occlusion of gorges and triggering of secondary riparian landslides, and (3) diversion of channels around deposits to form incised meandering gorges. Remnants of large prehistoric (i.e. pre‐1840) landslide deposits possibly represent the low‐frequency (in terms of total area affected yet dominant) end of the spectrum of mass wasting in the western Southern Alps. This is at odds with high erosion rates in an active erosional landscape. Large landslides appear to have dual roles of supplying and retaining sediment. The implications of these roles are that (1) previous models of (shallow) landslide‐derived sediment flux need to be recalibrated, and (2) geomorphic effects of earthquake‐induced landsliding may persist for at least 102 years. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Geomorphologic analysis of submarine and subaerial surface features using a combined topographic/bathymetric digital elevation model coupled with onshore geological and geophysical data constrain the age and geometry of giant landslides affecting the north flank of Tenerife. Shaded relief and contour maps, and topographic profiles of the submarine north flank, permit the identification of two generations of post-shield landslides. Older landslide materials accumulated near the shore (<40-km) and comprise 700 km3 of debris. Thickening towards a prominent axis suggests one major landslide deposit. Younger landslide materials accumulated 40–70 km offshore and comprise the products of three major landslides: the La Orotava landslide complex, the Icod landslide and the East Dorsal landslide complex, each with an onshore scar, a proximal submarine trough, and a distal deposit lobe. Estimated lobe volumes are 80, 80 and 100 km3, respectively. The old post-shield landslide scar is an amphitheatre, 20–25 km wide, partly submarine, now completely filled with younger materials. Age–width relationships for Tenerife's coastal platform plus onshore geological constraints suggest an age of ca. 3 Ma for the old collapse. Young landslides are all less than 560 ka old. The La Orotava and Icod slides involved failures of slabs of subaerial flank to form the subaerial La Orotava and Icod valleys. Offshore, they excavated troughs by sudden loading and basal erosion of older slide debris. The onshore East Dorsal slide also triggered secondary failure of older debris offshore. The slab-like geometry of young failures was controlled by weak layers, deep drainage channels and flank truncation by marine erosion. The (partly) submarine geometry of the older amphitheatre reflects the absence of these features. Relatively low H/L ratios for the young slides are attributed to filling of the slope break at the base of the submarine edifice by old landslide materials, low aspect ratios of the failed slabs and channelling within troughs. Post-shield landslides on Tenerife correlate with major falls in sea level, reflecting increased rates of volcanism and coastal erosion, and reduced support for the flank. Landslide head zones have strongly influenced the pattern of volcanism on Tenerife, providing sites for major volcanic centres.  相似文献   

16.
Summary statistics derived from the frequency–area distribution (FAD) of inventories of triggered landslides allows for direct comparison of landslides triggered by one event (e.g. earthquake, rainstorm) with another. Such comparisons are vital to understand links between the landslide‐event and the environmental characteristics of the area affected. This could lead to methods for rapid estimation of landslide‐event magnitude, which in turn could lead to estimates of the total triggered landslide area. Previous studies proposed that the FAD of landslides follows an inverse power‐law, which provides the basis to model the size distribution of landslides and to estimate landslide‐event magnitude (mLS), which quantifies the severity of the event. In this study, we use a much larger collection of earthquake‐induced landslide (EQIL) inventories (n=45) than previous studies to show that size distributions are much more variable than previously assumed. We present an updated model and propose a method for estimating mLS and its uncertainty that better fits the observations and is more reproducible, robust, and consistent than existing methods. We validate our model by computing mLS for all of the inventories in our dataset and comparing that with the total landslide areas of the inventories. We show that our method is able to estimate the total landslide area of the events in this larger inventory dataset more successfully than the existing methods. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Many investigators have attempted to define the threshold of landslide failure, that is, the level of the selected climatic variable above which a rainfall-induced landslide occurs. Intensity–duration (I–d) relationships are the most common type of empirical thresholds proposed in the literature for predicting landslide occurrence induced by rainfall. Recent studies propose the use of the kinetic power per unit volume of rainfall (J m−2 mm−1) to quantify the threshold of landslides induced by rainfall. In this paper, the relationship between rainfall duration and kinetic power corresponding to landslides triggered by rain was used to propose a new approach to define the threshold for predicting landslide occurrence. In particular, for the first time, a kinetic power per unit volume of rainfall–duration relationship is proposed for defining the minimum threshold needed for landslide failure. This new method can be applied using commonly used relationship for estimating the kinetic power per unit volume of rainfall and a new equation based on the measured raindrop size distribution. The applicability of this last method was tested using the data of rainfall intensity, duration and median volume diameter for 51 landslides in Taiwan. For the 51 landslides, the comparison between the measured pairs' kinetic power–duration and all selected relationships demonstrated that the equation based on the measured raindrop size distribution is the best method to define the landslide occurrence threshold, as it is both a process-oriented approach and is characterized by the best statistical performance. This last method has also the advantage to allow the forecasting of landslide hazard before the end of the rainfall event, since the rainfall kinetic power threshold value can be exceeded for a time interval less than the event duration.  相似文献   

18.
The first application of the SHETRAN basin‐scale, landslide erosion and sediment yield model is carried out for a major landsliding event in the upper 505 km2 of the Llobregat basin, in the eastern Spanish Pyrenees, in November 1982. The model simulates the spatial distribution of shallow landslides and their sediment yield. Acknowledging uncertainty in the model parameter evaluation, the aim of the application was not to reproduce the observed occurrence of landslides as accurately as possible with one simulation, but to bracket the observed pattern with several simulations representing uncertainty in the key input conditions. Bounds on the landslide simulations were thus determined as a function of uncertainty in the vegetation root cohesion (used in the model factor of safety calculations). The resulting upper bound considerably overestimates the observed pattern (17 000 landslides compared with an observation of around 700), but it reproduces several of the principal clusters in the observed pattern. The lower bound contains around 500 landslides. The sediment yield estimates (2670–14 630 t km?2) are comparable to measurements elsewhere in the Pyrenees for extreme events. The results demonstrate an ability to simulate the basin‐scale landslide response to a rainfall event and the resulting sediment yield. They also highlight the need for further research in setting the uncertainty bounds and in avoiding large overestimates of landslide occurrence arising in part from a current inability to model small‐scale controls for a basin of the given size. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
The potential of surface roughness to quantify geomorphological landforms and processes has been enhanced with the availability of high‐resolution digital terrain models (DTM). Recent studies that attempt to identify landslide features with surface roughness have suggested that this measure of topographic heterogeneity may also be applied to estimate the relative age of landslides. This is a provisional study that explores the potential of this relationship by assessing the ability of surface roughness to act as a proxy for relative landslide age. The surface roughness for a set of 12 dated landslides in the Swabian Alb that occurred between 1789 and 1985 was calculated from a 1 m2 spatial resolution LiDAR DTM with three algorithms: root‐mean‐square‐height (RMSH), standard deviation of slope (SDS), and direction cosine eigenvalue ratios (DCE). Scale‐dependence was analysed by calculating surface roughness for a range of moving window sizes (3 × 3, 5 × 5, 9 × 9 and 15 × 15), and surface roughness for each landslide was summarized by the median and upper quartile. Only weak correlations (best Spearman's rho 0.58) were present between landslide age and surface roughness. This correlation becomes weaker with increasing moving window size. Given weak observed associations and discussed challenges pertaining to the complexities of landslide morphology change over time, we currently find that surface roughness alone may not be justifiable to act as a proxy for landslide age for our study region. Furthermore, we recommend future studies should focus on addressing possible natural and anthropogenic factors such as land use change that may alter surface roughness. These studies may focus on one of the three roughness measures used here as they are strongly correlated. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
A model‐based method is proposed for improving upon existing threshold relationships which define the rainfall conditions for triggering shallow landslides but do not allow the magnitude of landsliding (i.e. the number of landslides) to be determined. The SHETRAN catchment‐scale shallow landslide model is used to quantify the magnitude of landsliding as a function of rainfall return period, for focus sites of 180 and 45 km2 in the Italian Southern Alps and the central Spanish Pyrenees. Rainfall events with intensities of different return period are generated for a range of durations (1‐day to 5‐day) and applied to the model to give the number of landslides triggered and the resulting sediment yield for each event. For a given event duration, simulated numbers of landslides become progressively less sensitive to return period as return period increases. Similarly, for an event of given return period, landslide magnitude becomes less sensitive to event duration as duration increases. The temporal distribution of rainfall within an event is shown to have a significant impact on the number of landslides and the timing of their occurrence. The contribution of shallow landsliding to catchment sediment yield is similarly quantified as a function of the rainfall characteristics. Rainfall intensity–duration curves are presented which define different levels of landsliding magnitude and which advance our predictive capability beyond, but are generally consistent with, published threshold curves. The magnitude curves are relevant to the development of guidelines for landslide hazard assessment and forecasting. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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