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1.
A straightforward Bayesian statistic is applied in five broad seismogenic source zones of the northwest frontier of the Himalayas to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude M max, β value of G–R relationship and seismic activity rate or intensity λ). For this purpose, a reliable earthquake catalogue which is homogeneous for M W ≥ 5.0 and complete during the period 1900 to 2010 is compiled. The Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya zone has been further divided into two seismic zones of shallow (h ≤ 70 km) and intermediate depth (h > 70 km) according to the variation of seismicity with depth in the subduction zone. The estimated earthquake hazard parameters by Bayesian approach are more stable and reliable with low standard deviations than other approaches, but the technique is more time consuming. In this study, quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years are calculated with confidence limits for probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % in all seismogenic source zones. The zones of estimated M max greater than 8.0 are related to the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges, Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt; suggesting more seismically hazardous regions in the examined area. The lowest value of M max (6.44) has been calculated in Northern-Pakistan and Hazara syntaxis zone which have estimated lowest activity rate 0.0023 events/day as compared to other zones. The Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt exhibits higher earthquake magnitude (8.01) in next 100-years with 90 % probability level as compared to other zones, which reveals that this zone is more vulnerable to occurrence of a great earthquake. The obtained results in this study are directly useful for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the examined region of Himalaya.  相似文献   

2.
K-means cluster analysis and seismicity partitioning for Pakistan   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
Pakistan and the western Himalaya is a region of high seismic activity located at the triple junction between the Arabian, Eurasian and Indian plates. Four devastating earthquakes have resulted in significant numbers of fatalities in Pakistan and the surrounding region in the past century (Quetta, 1935; Makran, 1945; Pattan, 1974 and the recent 2005 Kashmir earthquake). It is therefore necessary to develop an understanding of the spatial distribution of seismicity and the potential seismogenic sources across the region. This forms an important basis for the calculation of seismic hazard; a crucial input in seismic design codes needed to begin to effectively mitigate the high earthquake risk in Pakistan. The development of seismogenic source zones for seismic hazard analysis is driven by both geological and seismotectonic inputs. Despite the many developments in seismic hazard in recent decades, the manner in which seismotectonic information feeds the definition of the seismic source can, in many parts of the world including Pakistan and the surrounding regions, remain a subjective process driven primarily by expert judgment. Whilst much research is ongoing to map and characterise active faults in Pakistan, knowledge of the seismogenic properties of the active faults is still incomplete in much of the region. Consequently, seismicity, both historical and instrumental, remains a primary guide to the seismogenic sources of Pakistan. This study utilises a cluster analysis approach for the purposes of identifying spatial differences in seismicity, which can be utilised to form a basis for delineating seismogenic source regions. An effort is made to examine seismicity partitioning for Pakistan with respect to earthquake database, seismic cluster analysis and seismic partitions in a seismic hazard context. A magnitude homogenous earthquake catalogue has been compiled using various available earthquake data. The earthquake catalogue covers a time span from 1930 to 2007 and an area from 23.00° to 39.00°N and 59.00° to 80.00°E. A threshold magnitude of 5.2 is considered for K-means cluster analysis. The current study uses the traditional metrics of cluster quality, in addition to a seismic hazard contextual metric to attempt to constrain the preferred number of clusters found in the data. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define the seismic clusters for Pakistan, which can be used further in the process of defining seismogenic sources and corresponding earthquake recurrence models for estimates of seismic hazard and risk in Pakistan. Consideration of the different approaches to cluster validation in a seismic hazard context suggests that Pakistan may be divided into K?=?19 seismic clusters, including some portions of the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and India.  相似文献   

3.
In the present study, the level of the largest earthquake hazard is assessed in 28 seismic zones of the NW Himalaya and its vicinity, which is a highly seismically active region of the world. Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution (hereafter as GIII) is adopted for the evaluation of the largest earthquake magnitudes in these seismic zones. Instead of taking in account any type of Mmax, in the present study we consider the ω value which is the largest earthquake magnitude that a region can experience according to the GIII statistics. A function of the form Θ(ω, RP6.0) is providing in this way a relatively largest earthquake hazard scale defined by the letter K (K index). The return periods for the ω values (earthquake magnitudes) 6 or larger (RP6.0) are also calculated. According to this index, the investigated seismic zones are classified into five groups and it is shown that seismic zones 3 (Quetta of Pakistan), 11 (Hindukush), 15 (northern Pamirs), and 23 (Kangra, Himachal Pradesh of India) correspond to a “very high” K index which is 6.  相似文献   

4.
—?The procedure developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1989, 1992) and Kijko and Graham (1998, 1999) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in north Algeria. The area-specific seismic hazard parameters that were calculated consist of the b value of the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude relation, the activity rate λ(M) for events above the magnitude M, and the maximum regional magnitude M max. These parameters were calculated for each of the six seismogenic zones of north Algeria. The site-specific seismic hazard was calculated in terms of the maximum possible PGA at hypothetical engineering structures (HES), situated in each of the six seismogenic zones with coordinates corresponding with those of the six most industrial and populated cities in Algeria.  相似文献   

5.
The Iranian Plateau does not appear to be a single crustal block, but an assemblage of zones comprising the Alborz—Azerbaijan, Zagros, Kopeh—Dagh, Makran, and Central and East Iran. The Gumbel’s III asymptotic distribution method (GIII) and maximum magnitude expected by Kijko—Sellevoll method is applied in order to check the potentiality of the each seismogenic zone in the Iranian Plateau for the future occurrence of maximum magnitude (Mmax). For this purpose, a homogeneous and complete seismicity database of the instrumental period during 1900–2012 is used in 29 seismogenic zones of the examined region. The spatial mapping of hazard parameters (upper bound magnitude (ω), most probable earthquake magnitude in next 100 years (M100) and maximum magnitude expected by maximum magnitude estimated by Kijko—Sellevoll method (max MK ? Smax) reveals that Central and East Iran, Alborz and Azerbaijan, Kopeh—Dagh and SE Zagros are a dangerous place for the next occurrence of a large earthquake.  相似文献   

6.
主要研究2009年7月24日西藏尼玛西南MS5.6地震的基本参数、地震序列特征、震源参数、发震构造等;利用震中附近600km范围内台站测定参数研究地震的震源机制解,与哈佛大学给出的震源机制解较一致,且与通过现场考察的发震断层走向具有一致性。研究认为本次地震发生在冈底斯山—拉萨块体内部,断裂为NNW向,主要受张应力作用产生左旋走滑正断层活动。此外还分析了震前地震学条带异常特征,结束表明,震前1年出现NW向条带非常显著,研究结论为该地区今后地震预测提供科学依据。  相似文献   

7.
论发震构造特性在潜在震源区参数确定中的应用   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文
周本刚 《地震地质》2004,26(4):750-760
发震构造特性是潜在震源区划分及其地震年发生率确定的重要依据。潜在震源区除了反映“未来具有发生破坏性地震的地区”的内涵外,还应反映高震级档地震具有相似复发特征的涵义。由于在地震活动性参数统计单元内,有一些具有不同本底地震的活动构造块体,为更好地反映地震活动的空间不均匀性,考虑潜在震源区的三级划分是有必要的。通过分析潜在震源区内高震级档地震的复发特征,计算预测时段内潜在震源区的高震级档地震的发震概率,采用预测时段内概率等效转换获得地震年平均发生率的方法,有助于在中国地震危险性分析框架内考虑潜在震源区的强震复发特性。另外,文中还对潜在震源区内特征地震次级震级档频度不足的特性和发震构造上强震非均匀性在地震危险性分析中的应用问题进行了探讨  相似文献   

8.
A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40–83° N and 20–40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0–8.3 moment magnitude (MW) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude MW. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.  相似文献   

9.
The present study aims at understanding the seismotectonic province of the Shillong Plateau (SP) by identifying the potential seismic source zones within a radius of 500 km from the centre of the SP. From existing literature and earthquake (EQ) data, the seismotectonic region is found to vary in terms of seismicity, tectonic features, geology, thickness of overburden, rupture characteristics and rate of movement. Thus, entire 500-km-radius seismotectonic region is divided into four seismic source zones: namely (1) the Shillong Plateau–Assam Valley Zone (SP-AVZ), (2) the Indo-Burma Ranges Zone (IBRZ), (3) the Bengal Basin Zone (BBZ) and (4) the Eastern Himalaya Zone (EHZ). EQ catalogues for each source zone is analysed for completeness of magnitude and time. Seismic parameter b estimated using a maximum likelihood method is found to be 0.91 ± 0.03, 0.94 ± 0.02, 0.80 ± 0.03 and 0.89 ± 0.03 for the SP-AVZ, IBRZ, BBZ and EHZ, respectively. In addition, the maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the mean annual activity rate, maximum possible magnitude (m max), return period and probability of exceedance for the four zones. The b values estimated suggest that the BBZ is seismically more active; however, the rate of occurrence of EQs is highest in the IBRZ. Findings from this study are an indication of the relative contribution from each of the four seismic source zones towards a seismic hazard of the SP.  相似文献   

10.
The interpretation of the nature and parameters of the source for the earthquake that occurred in Sumatra on December 26, 2004 is suggested. Our study relies on a variety of data on the geological structure of the region, long-term seismicity, spatial distribution of the foreshocks and aftershocks, and focal mechanisms; and the pattern of shaking and tsunami, regularities in the occurrence of the earthquakes, and the genetic relationship between the seismic and geological parameters inherent in various types of seismogenic zones including island arcs. The source of the Sumatran earthquake is a steep reverse fault striking parallel to the island arc and dipping towards the ocean. The length of the fault is ～450 km, and its probable bedding depth is ～70–100 km. The magnitude of this seismic event corresponding to the length of its source is 8.9–9.0. The vertical displacement in the source probably reached 9–13 m. The fault is located near the inner boundary of the Aceh Depression between the epicenter of the earthquake and the northern tip of the depression. The strike-slip and strike-slip reverse the faults cutting the island arc form the northern and southern borders of the source. The location and source parameters in the suggested interpretation account quite well for the observed pattern of shaking and tsunami. The Aceh Depression and its environs probably also host other seismic sources in the form of large reverse faults. The Sumatran earthquake, which was the culmination of the seismogenic activation of the Andaman-Sumatra island arc in the beginning of XXI century, is a typical tsunamigenic island-arc earthquake. By its characteristics, this event is an analogue to the M W = 9 Kamchatka earthquake of November 4, 1952. The spatial distribution of the epicenters and the focal mechanisms of the aftershocks indicate that the repeated shocks during the Sumatran event were caused by the activation of a complex system of geological structures in various parts of the island arc and Andaman Sea instead of the slips on a single rupture (a subduction thrust about 1200–1300 km in length).  相似文献   

11.
Iranian earthquakes, a uniform catalog with moment magnitudes   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  
A uniform earthquake catalog is an essential tool in any seismic hazard analysis. In this study, an earthquake catalog of Iran and adjacent areas was compiled, using international and national databanks. The following priorities were applied in selecting magnitude and earthquake location: (a) local catalogs were given higher priority for establishing the location of an earthquake and (b) global catalogs were preferred for determining earthquake magnitudes. Earthquakes that have occurred within the bounds between 23–42° N and 42–65° E, with a magnitude range of M W 3.5–7.9, from the third millennium BC until April 2010 were included. In an effort to avoid the “boundary effect,” since the newly compiled catalog will be mainly used for seismic hazard assessment, the study area includes the areas adjacent to Iran. The standardization of the catalog in terms of magnitude was achieved by the conversion of all types of magnitude into moment magnitude, M W, by using the orthogonal regression technique. In the newly compiled catalog, all aftershocks were detected, based on the procedure described by Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64:1363–1367, 1974). The seismicity parameters were calculated for the six main tectonic seismic zones of Iran, i.e., the Zagros Mountain Range, the Alborz Mountain Range, Central Iran, Kope Dagh, Azerbaijan, and Makran.  相似文献   

12.
Historical seismic data and seismogenic information are quite scarce for the low seismicity region, and modeling the parameters uncertainties based on probabilistic model is suspicious. The convex set theory-based seismic hazard analysis approach is proposed. The uncertainties of b value, the annual occurrence rate v and the upper bound magnitude Mu are described by the envelop bound convex model and the ellipsoidal bound convex model. Convex analysis method and China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology are combined to perform a bound seismic hazard analysis for Ningbo city, China. The seismic intensity interval obtained using the bound seismic hazard analysis is compared with that calculated using China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the interval of seismic intensity is most sensitive to the annual occurrence rate v. Furthermore, the different convex models have little effect on the interval of seismic intensity.  相似文献   

13.
The 26th April 1986 Dharamsala earthquake (mb 5.5) occurred in the Kangra region of Himachal Himalaya, which lies in the rupture zone of great Kangra earthquake of 1905. This was the first moderate sized earthquake to be recorded at a few sites of the strong ground motion array in the NW Himalaya. The accelerograms of this earthquake have been used to estimate its source parameters, site amplification functions and to estimate the effective shear wave attenuation factor Qβ in the frontal region of Himachal Himalaya. A double couple fault plane solution for the earthquake has been obtained based on the spectra of the transverse component of the accelerograms. The estimated values of the source parameters are seismic moment: 2.1×1024 dyne-cm, static stress drop (Δσ): 36 bars, source radius (r): 2.8 km and moment magnitude (Mw): 5.4. The estimated average values of effective shear wave attenuation factor Qβ for various sites are in the range of 125 to 300 with an overall spatial average of 239. The influence of local site effects on the observed PGA values have been examined on the basis of site amplification functions.  相似文献   

14.
This paper presents a set of seismicity parameters that are estimated at the Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Service, Russian Academy of Sciences based on the regional catalog data with the purpose of routine monitoring of the current seismic situation in the region. The focus is on the identification of changes in the seismic regime (seismic quiescences and seismicity increases) in earth volumes adjacent to the maturing rupture zone of a large earthquake. The techniques we use include estimation of the seismicity level for the region using the SOUS’09 scale; calculation of the variations in the slope of the recurrence relation, identification of statistically significant anomalies in the slope using the Z test, and calculation of the seismic activity A 10; monitoring the RTL parameter and variations in the area of seismogenic ruptures; using the Z test to detect areas of statistically significant decreases in the rate of seismicity; and identification of earthquake clusters. We furnish examples of such anomalies in these seismicity parameters prior to large earthquakes in Kamchatka.  相似文献   

15.
On 9 May 1989 a M L = 5.2 earthquake struck a region between the islands of Tenerife and Gran Canaria. We investigated the time-spatial evolution of seismic patterns affecting the Canary Islands region during 1989–1995, using a quantitative spatial fractal analysis method. This method allows quantitative investigation of subtle trends in seismicity distribution through time. The fractal analysis indicates that epicenters clustered around a large zone during the May 1989 sequence affected narrow zones during 1991–1993, but then larger zones during 1993–1995 with an overall trend to shallower focal depths. The spatial localisation of seismic data and its time evolution appear to be related to magmatic rather than tectonic activity. Spatial clustering properties of seismicity are consistent with a major intrusive episode in 1989, followed by a period of quiescence and renewed deep intrusive activity from 1993 onwards. This interpretation suggests an increasing probability of future volcanic hazard in the region investigated.  相似文献   

16.
The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been adopted to estimate the seismic hazard in some seismogenic zones in Greece and surrounding regions. Seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude were considered as basic parameters for computing the prior estimates of the seismicity. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes' theorem and historical estimates of seismicity associated with each zone.High probabilities for earthquakes withM6.0 have been obtained for the northwestern part of Greece as well as for the southwestern part of the Hellenic arc.  相似文献   

17.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out for Iraq. The earthquake catalogue used in the present study covers an area between latitude 29°–38.5° N and longitude 39°–50° E containing more than a thousand events for the period 1905–2000. The entire Iraq region has been divided into thirteen seismogenic sources based on their seismic characteristics, geological setting and tectonic framework. The completeness of the seismicity catalogue has been checked using the method proposed by Stepp (1972). The analysis of completeness shows that the earthquake catalogue is not complete below Ms=4.8 for all of Iraq and seismic source zones S1, S4, S5, and S8, while it varies for the other seismic zones. A statistical treatment of completeness of the data file was carried out in each of the magnitude classes. The Frequency Magnitude Distributions (FMD) for the study area including all seismic source zones were established and the minimum magnitude of complete reporting (Mc) were then estimated. For the entire Iraq the Mc was estimated to be about Ms=4.0 while S11 shows the lowest Mc to be about Ms=3.5 and the highest Mc of about Ms=4.2 was observed for S4. The earthquake activity parameters (activity rate , b value, maximum regional magnitude mmax) as well as the mean return period (R) with a certain lower magnitude mmin m along with their probability of occurrence have been determined for all thirteen seismic source zones of Iraq. The maximum regional magnitude mmax was estimated as 7.87 ± 0.86 for entire Iraq. The return period for magnitude 6.0 is largest for source zone S3 which is estimated to be 705 years while the smallest value is estimated as 9.9 years for all of Iraq.The large variation of the b parameter and the hazard level from zone to zone reflects crustal heterogeneity and the high seismotectonic complexity. The seismic hazard near the source boundaries is directly and strongly affected by the change in the delineation of these boundaries. The forces, through which the geological structure along the plate boundary in Eastern and Northeastern Iraq are evolved, are still active causing stress-strain accumulation, deformation and in turn producing higher probabilities of earthquake activity. Thus, relatively large destructive earthquakes are expected in this region. The study is intended to serve as a reference for more advanced approaches and to pave the path for the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard in this region.  相似文献   

18.
An endeavor is made to compute peak ground horizontal accelerations at bedrock level in the Delhi region due to the seismogenic sources present around Delhi. The entire area is divided into six seismogenic sources for which seismic hazard analysis is carried out using the complete and extreme part of the seismicity data. Maximum likelihood estimates of hazard parameters viz., seismic activity rate , b value and maximum probable earthquake M max are made for each zone. The return periods and the probabilities of occurrence of various magnitudes for return periods of 50, 100 and 1000 years are also computed for each zone. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values for 20% exceedance in 50 years are then computed for the Delhi region from each zone. The maximum PGA value considering all the zones is 0.34 g, which is due to the Mathura fault zone. The seismogenic zones V and VI, i.e., Mathura fault zone and the Sohna fault zone are observed to be contributing maximum PGA values in the Delhi region governing the isoacceleration contours computed for the region. The seismic zonation map for the PGA values at the bedrock level is obtained for the Delhi region. This can be used directly as input for the microzonation of ground motion at the surface by incorporating the local site conditions.  相似文献   

19.
Recent seismicity in the northeast India and its adjoining region exhibits different earthquake mechanisms – predominantly thrust faulting on the eastern boundary, normal faulting in the upper Himalaya, and strike slip in the remaining areas. A homogenized catalogue in moment magnitude, M W, covering a period from 1906 to 2006 is derived from International Seismological Center (ISC) catalogue, and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) database. Owing to significant and stable earthquake recordings as seen from 1964 onwards, the seismicity in the region is analyzed for the period with spatial distribution of magnitude of completeness m t, b value, a value, and correlation fractal dimension D C. The estimated value of m t is found to vary between 4.0 and 4.8. The a value is seen to vary from 4.47 to 8.59 while b value ranges from 0.61 to 1.36. Thrust zones are seen to exhibit predominantly lower b value distribution while strike-slip and normal faulting regimes are associated with moderate to higher b value distribution. D C is found to vary from 0.70 to 1.66. Although the correlation between spatial distribution of b value and D C is seen predominantly negative, positive correlations can also be observed in some parts of this territory. A major observation is the strikingly negative correlation with low b value in the eastern boundary thrust region implying a possible case of extending asperity. Incidentally, application of box counting method on fault segments of the study region indicates comparatively higher fractal dimension, D, suggesting an inclination towards a planar geometrical coverage in the 2D spatial extent. Finally, four broad seismic source zones are demarcated based on the estimated spatial seismicity patterns in collaboration with the underlying active fault networks. The present work appraises the seismicity scenario in fulfillment of a basic groundwork for seismic hazard assessment in this earthquake province of the country.  相似文献   

20.
官幼雄 《华南地震》2019,39(1):71-75
地震安全性评价是防震减灾的重要措施之一。地震危险性分析是地震安全性评价的基础。论文利用安全性评价基本理论和方法对广东省的地震危险性进行分析。以广东省历史上发生的中强地震目录作为研究基础,分析了广东省的地质构造特点和断裂特点,划分潜在地震源、确定地震活动性参数,建立了地震发生概率模型,通过计算得出地震带的综合影响。研究结果表明广东省内具有发生7.5、 6.5、 6.0、 5.5级级段地震的发震条件,其中沿海地区是广东省中、强地震的主要发震区域。  相似文献   

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