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1.
A hydrological conceptual model developed by the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium has been run to assess the potential hydrological impacts of an hypothetical doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The simulated scenarios were derived from the predictions of climatic change currently provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs). Three typical drainage basins in Belgium have been selected for assessing their common responses and bringing out possible specific behaviours attributable to catchment characteristics. The study dealt essentially with modifications of the streamflow and with alterations of the flood and low-flow regimes. In catchments with prevailing surface flow the considered change in climate could induce:
  • An increase in flood frequencies during the winter season together with a strengthening of the extreme river stages leading to greater flooding risks;
  • A decrease in streamflow during the summer season and, as a corollary, increased risks of water pollution;
  • Possible restraints, in summer and autumn, on water availability from local groundwater storages.
In catchments with high infiltration rate and with strong aquifer the impact could be:
  • An increase in groundwater storage, bringing about an increase in the base flow throughout the year, which in turn involves increased flood risks;
  • A reduction of the number of low-stage occurrences in summer, resulting in reduced river pollution;
  • A possible increase in water availability from the aquifers.
  相似文献   

2.
Climate projections for the Huaihe River Basin, China, for the years 2001–2100 are derived from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model based on observed precipitation and temperature data covering 1964–2007. Streamflow for the Huaihe River under three emission scenarios (SRES-A2, A1B, B1) from 2010 to 2100 is then projected by applying artificial neural networks (ANN). The results show that annual streamflow will change significantly under the three scenarios from 2010 to 2100. The interannual fluctuations cover a significant increasing streamflow trend under the SRES-A2 scenario (2051–2085). The streamflow trend declines gradually under the SRES-A1B scenario (2024–2037), and shows no obvious trend under the SRES-B1 scenario. From 2010 to 2100, the correlation coefficient between the observed and modeled streamflow in SRES-A2 scenario is the best of the three scenarios. Combining SRES-A2 scenario of the ECHAM5 model and ANN might therefore be the best approach for assessing and projecting future water resources in the Huaihe basin and other catchments. Compared to the observed period of streamflows, the projected periodicity of streamflows shows significant changes under different emission scenarios. Under A2 scenario and A1B scenario, the period would delay to about 32–33a and 27–28a, respectively, but under B1 scenario, the period would not change, as it is about 5–6a and the observed period is about 7–8a. All this might affect drought/flood management, water supply and irrigation projects in the Huaihe River basin.  相似文献   

3.
Understanding the changes in streamflow and associated driving forces is crucial for formulating a sustainable regional water resources management strategy in the environmentally fragile karst area of the southwest China. This study investigates the spatio-temporal changes in streamflow of the Guizhou region and their linkage with meteorological influences using the Mann–Kendall trend analysis, singular-spectrum analysis (SSA), Lepage test, and flow duration curves (FDCs). The results demonstrate that: (1) the streamflow in the flood-season (June–August) during 1956–2000 increased significantly (confidence level ≥95%) in most catchments, closely consistent with the distinct increasing trend of annual rainfall over wet-seasons. The timings of abrupt change for streamflow in most catchments are found to occur at 1986; (2) streamflow in the Guizhou region experiences significant seasonal changes prior/posterior to 1986, and in most catchments the coefficient of variation of monthly streamflow increases; (3) spatial changes in streamflow indicate that monthly streamflow in the north-west decreases but increases in other parts; (4) the spatial high- and low-flow map (Q 5 and Q 95) reveals an increase in the extremely large streamflow in the five eastern catchments but a decrease in the extremely low streamflow in the four eastern catchments and three western catchments during 1987–2000. An increase in streamflow, particularly extreme flows, during the flood season would increase the risk of extreme flood events, while a decrease in streamflow in the dry season is not beneficial to vegetation restoration in this ecologically fragile region.  相似文献   

4.
Climatic and hydrological changes will likely be intensified in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin by the effects of global warming. The extent of such effects for representative concentration pathways (RCP) climate scenarios is unknown. We evaluated projected changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration and related impacts on water availability in the UBN under the RCP4.5 scenario. We used dynamically downscaled outputs from six global circulation models (GCMs) with unprecedented spatial resolution for the UBN. Systematic errors of these outputs were corrected and followed by runoff modelling by the HBV (Hydrologiska ByrånsVattenbalansavdelning) model, which was successfully validated for 17 catchments. Results show that the UBN annual rainfall amount will change by ?2.8 to 2.7% with a likely increase in annual potential evapotranspiration (in 2041–2070) for the RCP4.5 scenario. These changes are season dependent and will result in a likely decline in streamflow and an increase in soil moisture deficit in the basin.  相似文献   

5.
I. W. Jung  D. H. Bae  B. J. Lee 《水文研究》2013,27(7):1033-1045
Seasonality in hydrology is closely related to regional water management and planning. There is a strong consensus that global warming will likely increase streamflow seasonality in snow‐dominated regions due to decreasing snowfall and earlier snowmelt, resulting in wetter winters and drier summers. However, impacts to seasonality remain unclear in rain‐dominated regions with extreme seasonality in streamflow, including South Korea. This study investigated potential changes in seasonal streamflow due to climate change and associated uncertainties based on multi‐model projections. Seasonal flow changes were projected using the combination of 13 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations and three semi‐distributed hydrologic models under three different future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for two future periods (2020s and 2080s). Our results show that streamflow seasonality is likely to be aggravated due to increases in wet season flow (July through September) and decreases in dry season flow (October through March). In South Korea, dry season flow supports water supply and ecosystem services, and wet season flow is related to flood risk. Therefore, these potential changes in streamflow seasonality could bring water management challenges to the Korean water resources system, especially decreases in water availability and increases in flood risk. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22‐year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22‐year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood‐generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Fluvial flood events have substantial impacts on humans, both socially and economically, as well as on ecosystems (e.g., hydroecology and pollutant transport). Concurrent with climate change, the seasonality of flooding in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt‐dominated to a rainfall‐dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, that is, flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply, and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large‐scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality and defining related key drivers therefore is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explores changes in flood seasonality across near‐natural catchments in Scandinavia using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt‐dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring and early summer (March through June), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows with 5–35% of the catchments showing significant changes at the 5% significance level. Seasonal mean daily flows corroborate those findings with higher percentages (5–60%) of the catchments showing statistically significant changes. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt‐dominated to rainfall‐dominated with consistent changes towards earlier timing of the flood peak (significant for 25% of the catchments). Regionally consistent patterns suggest a first‐order climate control as well as a local second‐order catchment control, which causes inter‐seasonal variability in the streamflow response.  相似文献   

8.
Wildfires are common in Australia and can cause vegetation loss and affect hydrological processes such as interception, evapotranspiration, soil water storage and streamflow. This study investigates wildfire impacts on catchment mean annual streamflow for 14 Australian catchments that have been severely impacted by the 2009 Victoria wildfire, the second-worst wildfire disaster in Australia. A statistical approach based on sensitivity coefficients was used for quantifying the climate variability impacts on streamflow and the time trend analysis method was used to estimate the annual streamflow changes due to wildfire respectively. Our results show that wildfire has caused a noticeable increase in mean annual streamflow in the catchments with a burnt area above 70% for an immediate post-wildfire period (2009–2015) and the wildfire impact on streamflow is evidently larger than the climate change impact in the majority of burnt catchments. Furthermore, the wildfire impact on mean annual streamflow strongly increases with the burnt percentage area, indicated by R2 = 0.73 between the two. The results also illustrate that catchments with high burnt percentage areas can have more potential to gain increased streamflow due to wildfires compared with that due to climate variability and can have significant streamflow change after wildfires above the 70% threshold of burnt area. These results provide evidence for evaluating large-scale wildfire impact on streamflow at small to medium-sized catchments, and guidance for process-based hydrological models for simulating wildfire impacts on hydrological processes for the immediate period after the wildfire.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract

Most climate change projections show important decreases in water availability in the Mediterranean region by the end of this century. We assess those main climate change impacts on water resources in three medium-sized catchments with varying climatic conditions in northeastern Spain. A combination of hydrological modelling and climate projections with B1 and A2 IPCC emission scenarios is performed to infer future streamflows. The largest reduction (34%) in mean streamflows (for 2076–2100) is expected in the headwaters of the two wettest catchments, while lower decreases (25% of mean value for 2076–2100) are expected in the drier one. In all three catchments, autumn and summer are the seasons with the most notable projected decreases in streamflow, of 50% and 30%, respectively. Thus, ecological flows in the study area might be noticeably influenced by climate change, especially in the headwaters of the wet catchments.  相似文献   

10.
The response of intermittent catchments to rainfall is complex and difficult to model. This study uses the spatially distributed CATchment HYdrology (CATHY) model to explore how the frequency of daily rainfall (λ) can affect the hydrologic regime of intermittent catchments. After a multi-objective calibration and validation of CATHY against experimental measurements of streamflow and groundwater levels in a catchment used as a pasture, the role of λ in affecting streamflow characteristics was explored using different scenarios. With different values of λ for the dry and wet periods of the year, CATHY showed that a series of frequent rainfall events was often associated with incipient streamflow, independent of the season. Activation of streamflow during the wet season was related to multiple factors and was not often associated with the shallow groundwater levels near the outlet of the catchment. The interplay between rainfall depth and intensity acted as the most important factor for the generation of streamflow. Using the difference between accumulated rainfall and evapotranspiration as a measure of wetness, saturated subsurface flow mechanism generated streamflow in simulations with wetness at least three times larger than mean wetness of other simulations. Although groundwater uprise near the outlet did not effectively contribute to streamflow in the initial days of flow, it strongly correlated with the magnitude of the runoff coefficient. Values of λ close or equal to the maximum value in the wet season can sustain the connectivity between groundwater and streamflow in the riparian zone. This connectivity increases the catchment wetness, which consequently results in an increase of the generated streamflow. Our study showed that rainfall regimes characterized by different λ were able to identify distinct flow regimes typical of either intermittent, ephemeral, or nonflowing catchments. Decrease of λ in the wet season is likely associated with a reduction of streamflow, with a shift of flow regime from intermittent to ephemeral or no-flow.  相似文献   

11.
In hydrological modelling of catchments, wherein streams are groundwater-fed, an accurate representation of groundwater processes and their interaction with surface water is crucial. With this purpose, a coupled model was recently developed linking SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) with the fully-distributed groundwater model MODFLOW (Modular Groundwater Flow). In this study, SWAT and SWAT-MODFLOW were applied to a Danish groundwater-dominant catchment, simulating groundwater abstraction scenarios and assessing the benefits and drawbacks of SWAT-MODFLOW. Both models demonstrated good performance. However, SWAT-MODFLOW provided more realistic outputs when simulating abstraction: the decrease in streamflow was similar to the volume of water abstracted, while in SWAT the impact was negligible. SWAT also showed impacts on streamflow only when abstractions were taken from the shallow aquifer, not from the deep aquifer. Overall, SWAT-MODFLOW demonstrated wider possibilities for groundwater analysis, providing more insights than SWAT in supporting decision making in relation to environmental assessment.  相似文献   

12.
Mountain and lowland watersheds are two distinct geographical units with considerably different hydrological processes. Understanding their hydrological processes in the context of future climate change and land use scenarios is important for water resource management. This study investigated hydrological processes and their driving factors and eco-hydrological impacts for these two geographical units in the Xitiaoxi watershed, East China, and quantified their differences through hydrological modelling. Hydrological processes in 24 mountain watersheds and 143 lowland watersheds were simulated based on a raster-based Xin'anjiang model and a Nitrogen Dynamic Polder (NDP) model, respectively. These two models were calibrated and validated with an acceptable performance (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients of 0.81 and 0.50, respectively) for simulating discharge for mountain watersheds and water level for lowland watersheds. Then, an Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) model was used to help quantify the alterations to the hydrological process and their resulting eco-hydrological impacts. Based on the validated models, scenario analysis was conducted to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on the hydrological processes. The simulation results revealed that (a) climate change would cause a larger increase in annual runoff than that under land use scenario in the mountain watersheds, with variations of 19.9 and 10.5% for the 2050s, respectively. (b) Land use change was more responsible for the streamflow increment than climate change in the lowland watersheds, causing an annual runoff to increase by 27.4 and 16.2% for the 2050s, respectively. (c) Land use can enhance the response of streamflow to the climatic variation. (d) The above-mentioned hydrological variations were notable in flood and dry season in the mountain watersheds, and they were significant in rice season in the lowland watersheds. (e) Their resulting degradation of ecological diversity was more susceptible to future climate change in the two watersheds. This study demonstrated that mountain and lowland watersheds showed distinct differences in hydrological processes and their responses to climate and land use changes.  相似文献   

13.
Design flood estimation in ungauged catchments is of great importance in hydrologic practice especially where there is no available data about streamflow. Except the watershed of Anseghmir who is equipped with a gauge station, all the other watersheds are ungauged catchments. The use of frequency analysis of series of rainfall and streamflow is very important for the characterization of the hydrologic resources of the Upper Moulouya. The region has a semiarid climate that requires a good knowledge of the watershed's potential water to assist policy makers in forecasting extreme events, managing water resources and decision making. The frequency analysis was used to determine the design flood of different return periods. The results obtained are used in Gradex method to estimate the hydrologic variables of each subcatchment of the Upper Moulouya. Once the hydrologic study is completed, a principal components analysis was made to highlight the affinities between the different subcatchments and to deduce the hydrologic and hydrographic parameters that better characterize them. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Yanchun Zhou 《水文科学杂志》2015,60(7-8):1340-1360
Abstract

This paper quantifies the impacts of bushfire and climate variability on streamflow from three southeast Australian catchments where bushfires occurred in February 1983. Three hydrological models (AWRA-L, Xinanjiang and GR4J) were first calibrated against streamflow data from the pre-bushfire period and then used to simulate runoff for the post-bushfire period with the calibrated parameters. The difference in simulated streamflow between pre- and post-bushfire periods provides an estimate of the impact of climate variability on streamflow. The impact of bushfire on streamflow is quantified by removing the climate variability impact from the difference in mean annual observed streamflow between post- and pre-bushfire periods. For the first 15 years after the 1983 bushfires, the results from hydrological models for the three catchments indicate that there is a substantial increase in streamflow; this is attributed to initial decreases in evapotranspiration and soil infiltration rates resulting from the fires, followed by logging activity. After 15 years, streamflow dynamics are more heavily influenced by climate effects, although some impact from fire and logging regeneration may still occur. The results show that hydrological models provide reasonably consistent estimates of bushfire and climate impacts on streamflow for the three catchments. The models can be used to quantify relative contributions of forest disturbance (bushfire, logging and other forest management) and climate variability. The results presented can also help forest managers understand the relationship between bushfire and climate variability impacts on water yield in the context of climate variability.  相似文献   

15.
Using the defined sensitivity index, the sensitivity of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change was investigated in four catchments in the Haihe River basin. Climate change contained three parts: annual precipitation and temperature change and the change of the percentage of precipitation in the flood season (Pf). With satisfying monthly streamflow simulation using the variable infiltration capacity model, the sensitivity was estimated by the change of simulated hydrological variables with hypothetical climatic scenarios and observed climatic data. The results indicated that (i) the sensitivity of streamflow would increase as precipitation or Pf increased but would decrease as temperature increased; (ii) the sensitivity of evapotranspiration and soil moisture would decrease as precipitation or temperature increased, but it to Pf varied in different catchments; and (iii) hydrological variables were more sensitive to precipitation, followed by Pf, and then temperature. The nonlinear response of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change could provide a reference for water resources planning and management under future climate change scenarios in the Haihe River basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
S. Rehana  P. P. Mujumdar 《水文研究》2011,25(22):3373-3386
Analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow by perturbing the climate inputs has been a concern for many authors in the past few years, but there are few analyses for the impacts on water quality. To examine the impact of change in climate variables on the water quality parameters, the water quality input variables have to be perturbed. The primary input variables that can be considered for such an analysis are streamflow and water temperature, which are affected by changes in precipitation and air temperature, respectively. Using hypothetical scenarios to represent both greenhouse warming and streamflow changes, the sensitivity of the water quality parameters has been evaluated under conditions of altered river flow and river temperature in this article. Historical data analysis of hydroclimatic variables is carried out, which includes flow duration exceedance percentage (e.g. Q90), single low‐flow indices (e.g. 7Q10, 30Q10) and relationships between climatic variables and surface variables. For the study region of Tunga‐Bhadra river in India, low flows are found to be decreasing and water temperatures are found to be increasing. As a result, there is a reduction in dissolved oxygen (DO) levels found in recent years. Water quality responses of six hypothetical climate change scenarios were simulated by the water quality model, QUAL2K. A simple linear regression relation between air and water temperature is used to generate the scenarios for river water temperature. The results suggest that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause impairment in water quality. It was found that there is a significant decrease in DO levels due to the impact of climate change on temperature and flows, even when the discharges were at safe permissible levels set by pollution control agencies (PCAs). The necessity to improve the standards of PCA and develop adaptation policies for the dischargers to account for climate change is examined through a fuzzy waste load allocation model developed earlier. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
In mountain, snow driven catchments, snowmelt is supposed to be the primary contribution to river streamflows during spring. In these catchments the contribution of groundwater is not well documented because of the difficulty to monitor groundwater in such complex environment with deep aquifers. In this study we use an integrated hydrologic model to conduct numerical experiments that help quantify the effect of lateral groundwater flow on total annual and peak streamflow in predevelopment conditions. Our simulations focus on the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB; 2.8 × 105 km2) a well-documented mountain catchment for which both streamflow and water table measurements are available for several important sub-basins. For the simulated water year, our results suggest an increase in peak flow of up to 57% when lateral groundwater flow processes are included—an unexpected result for flood conditions generally assumed independent of groundwater. Additionally, inclusion of lateral groundwater flow moderately improved the model match to observations. The correlation coefficient for mean annual flows improved from 0.84 for the no lateral groundwater flow simulation to 0.98 for the lateral groundwater flow one. Spatially we see more pronounced differences between lateral and no lateral groundwater flow cases in areas of the domain with steeper topography. We also found distinct differences in the magnitude and spatial distribution of streamflow changes with and without lateral groundwater flow between Upper Colorado River Sub-basins. A sensitivity test that scaled hydraulic conductivity over two orders of magnitude was conducted for the lateral groundwater flow simulations. These results show that the impact of lateral groundwater flow is as large or larger than an order of magnitude change in hydraulic conductivity. While our results focus on the UCRB, we feel that these simulations have relevance to other headwaters systems worldwide.  相似文献   

18.
Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion.  相似文献   

19.
Relatively few studies have addressed water management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change. The current work studies climate change impact on a multipurpose reservoir performance and derives adaptive policies for possible future scenarios. The method developed in this work is illustrated with a case study of Hirakud reservoir on the Mahanadi river in Orissa, India, which is a multipurpose reservoir serving flood control, irrigation and power generation. Climate change effects on annual hydropower generation and four performance indices (reliability with respect to three reservoir functions, viz. hydropower, irrigation and flood control, resiliency, vulnerability and deficit ratio with respect to hydropower) are studied. Outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) for three scenarios each are downscaled to monsoon streamflow in the Mahanadi river for two future time slices, 2045–65 and 2075–95. Increased irrigation demands, rule curves dictated by increased need for flood storage and downscaled projections of streamflow from the ensemble of GCMs and scenarios are used for projecting future hydrologic scenarios. It is seen that hydropower generation and reliability with respect to hydropower and irrigation are likely to show a decrease in future in most scenarios, whereas the deficit ratio and vulnerability are likely to increase as a result of climate change if the standard operating policy (SOP) using current rule curves for flood protection is employed. An optimal monthly operating policy is then derived using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) as an adaptive policy for mitigating impacts of climate change on reservoir operation. The objective of this policy is to maximize reliabilities with respect to multiple reservoir functions of hydropower, irrigation and flood control. In variations to this adaptive policy, increasingly more weightage is given to the purpose of maximizing reliability with respect to hydropower for two extreme scenarios. It is seen that by marginally sacrificing reliability with respect to irrigation and flood control, hydropower reliability and generation can be increased for future scenarios. This suggests that reservoir rules for flood control may have to be revised in basins where climate change projects an increasing probability of droughts. However, it is also seen that power generation is unable to be restored to current levels, due in part to the large projected increases in irrigation demand. This suggests that future water balance deficits may limit the success of adaptive policy options.  相似文献   

20.
Processes controlling streamflow generation were determined using geochemical tracers for water years 2004–2007 at eight headwater catchments at the Kings River Experimental Watersheds in southern Sierra Nevada. Four catchments are snow‐dominated, and four receive a mix of rain and snow. Results of diagnostic tools of mixing models indicate that Ca2+, Mg2+, K+ and Cl? behaved conservatively in the streamflow at all catchments, reflecting mixing of three endmembers. Using endmember mixing analysis, the endmembers were determined to be snowmelt runoff (including rain on snow), subsurface flow and fall storm runoff. In seven of the eight catchments, streamflow was dominated by subsurface flow, with an average relative contribution (% of streamflow discharge) greater than 60%. Snowmelt runoff contributed less than 40%, and fall storm runoff less than 7% on average. Streamflow peaked 2–4 weeks earlier at mixed rain–snow than snow‐dominated catchments, but relative endmember contributions were not significantly different between the two groups of catchments. Both soil water in the unsaturated zone and regional groundwater were not significant contributors to streamflow. The contributions of snowmelt runoff and subsurface flow, when expressed as discharge, were linearly correlated with streamflow discharge (R2 of 0.85–0.99). These results suggest that subsurface flow is generated from the soil–bedrock interface through preferential pathways and is not very sensitive to snow–rain proportions. Thus, a declining of the snow–rain ratio under a warming climate should not systematically affect the processes controlling the streamflow generation at these catchments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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